"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Storms Possible: Coolest Yet Monday - Wednesday - but Then?

Dramatized Sky As Previous Cold Front was Clearing Central Florida at Sunrise

TODAY: Frontal boundary to cross all of Florida on Sunday morning through early evening. Well ahead of that boundary (today) is when the most 'weather' will occur (or possibly so) in association with this system. 

Early morning cloud cover, fog, and overall atmospheric malaise will begin to break up slowly but surely with temperatures warming through the 70Fs and possibly into the lower 80Fs (South Florida) though high clouds might well p ut limitations on that  as will the limitations from how long the morning conditions persist. The sooner things break up, the more warm we can get.

Latest guidance shows the better chances for truly active weather will remain mainly over the warmer waters of the Gulf around the Loop Current and the Gulf Stream though chance that some activity might make it to the actual peninsula along the Western Panhandle does exist as well as from around Tampa Bay and south (in a weakened state). Better chances of rain if any though enter in for Central and South Florida mainly toward and after dark into early morning Sunday as the actual front moves in. Some thunder is possible though (aloft) across Central per the HRRR short-range guidance, but  seems questionable.

Early Morning Satellite Image shows High Clouds passing over head from west to east.
Chance of showers somewhere between later today to sunrise Sunday north of the Green Line across South Florida.
Thunder better chances alone west coast.

SUNDAY: Frontal passage across Central shortly after noon-time with the atmosphere slowly but surely drying out toward sunset. The driest air moves in after dark (south of I-4) coupled with lowering mercury on NW wind around 15-20 mph at times for a while. 

Before dark, temperatures remain very comfortable; in the lower 70Fs.

MONDAY: Perhaps the coldest morning yet this season (since October) for east coasters with lows toward the 50F mark; somewhere between 48F - 52F. Highs, near 60F.

TUESDAY: Problems already enter the picture in the form of cloud cover speculations. Some guidance is showing a secondary wave passing across South Florida with rain chances there and cloudy skies Central. Morning lows similar to Monday if not colder. Inland lows in mid-upper 40Fs but closer to the 49 -52F zone Cape Canaveral and south east of I-95 (and warmer further south)  but if cloud cover moves in before the afternoon does we could remain 'chilly' with highs never breaking the mid 50Fs; for even only upper 50Fs yet still has been a consensus regardless. 

Wind will be light though into Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY: For some areas this might be the 'surprise' coldest day away from the coast if classic 'drainage flow' sets up in the absence of winds combined with absence of clouds. Wednesday also will be quite cool with highs perhaps in the lower 60Fs in general? (cooler north and warmer South as always).

THURSDAY: At time could also start out very cool but warm up eventually seems to be in the cards. Again though, there are times when any cloud cover, even a thin veil of high cirrus cloud which might go by nearly unnoticed by the unobservant (which is many) could affect the afternoon high temperatures, especially with the continued lower sun angle this time of year.

Stepping into late week...cautiously...

BEYOND: Speculation and eye of caution for the time being. Severe weather potential does exist for Central and South Florida with high bulk and directional shear aloft coupled with strong vorticity pattern expected to emerge from Northern Mexico and to move across the Gulf. That disturbance in fact will already be in the makings days before while the state is still under those chilly conditions described earlier. 

However, as has been the case time after time so far this 'season'..beyond 3 days guidance has had a very difficult time extrapolating into future outcomes both in place, timing and intensity of short-wave disturbances rippling by due to the progressive nature of them within the Southern Stream Jet and it's effects as it  (and the lower winds beneath it) cross the mountains of Mexico and/or combine with the warmer waters of the Gulf Loop Current.

IN SUMMARY BEYOND SUNDAY: Much cooler early to mid week and a chance of declining conditions heading toward the weekend.

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