"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Isolated Strong Storm or Isolated Severe Possible late Today through 10pm

(See Below Discussion)
TODAY: Not much change to previous post other than the forecast surface low now appears will be more organized (stronger) as it cross along or near the I-10 to just south of it tonight. Very warm today with highs in the lower to even mid 80Fs (South Florida) before cirrus blow off moves in. Might see some record highs in a few areas contingent upon when the cirrus clouds start to break over the area due to thunderstorm tops which will form well to the west of the state and blanket the state by early or mid afternoon (possibly later). Assuming that does indeed occur. For if not, even stronger storms could occur later over the Peninsula south of I-4 in particular.

Mid-Late Afternoon:  Again, strongest activity will not be associated with the actual cold front which will make things much colder to cool Thursday through Saturday. Some showers and maybe some thunder especially South Florida by mid afternoon, though over Central we might be restricted to High based low topped convective like rain showers due to high LCLs (lifted condensation levels). Winds primarily from the SW but right near the beaches some backing toward paralleling the coast looks to be possible as far north as Southern Volusia (perhaps).

After 5-6PM: This seems to be around, give or take an hour, the big shift when LCLs lower and upper level winds begin to increase (unbeknownst to us at the ground) as high level 30-35,000 foot level winds over 100kts begin to move in -- Central at the approaching Right Exit Region for those winds which would increase upper level divergence and mid level lifting despite the lack of low level instability.

 As a result, much of the activity will not exactly be 'surface based' but it is only February so hard to say for sure. Not expecting a good covering of 'organized activity' though there could be some isolated pockets of it, and those are impossible to say exactly where they will manifest, so will broad brush the areas noted above in the image. As a result of this being not a more formidably organized situation synoptically speaking, not sure we'll even see a watch box posted, but wouldn't be surprised either way.

Timing is everything, including the season. Suspect that there might be some tornado warnings after or near the 'dinner hour' time-frame toward 10pm but whether anything actually verifies on the ground is another matter. Paying especially close attention to those east of I-95 mainly from the Southern Volusia County area south to Vero Beach due to lingering low level helicities that might manifest from the intracoastal/ocean dynamics set in place earlier in the day though invisible to the model guidance.   This 'could ' mean a very brief spin up like 'tornado' situation embedded within any stronger storm, but those would be very isolated. More predominately seems to be the chance for severe category straight line winds or even a brief spin up elsewhere as a result of interactions more than directly related to a discrete stand alone storm itself. Activity should be increasing in coverage after 7pm and exit off the east coast by 11pm for the most part with the cold front still many hours behind. Possibly rain showers with the front.

THURSDAY: Still appears the front will be directly across Central Florida within an hour either way of sunrise but the true cooling will not be fully appreciated until the sun starts to set. Breezy behind the front with westerly winds perhaps busting upwards of 30 mph for a period of time but good clearing with some earlier in the day clouds before the drier air moves in by late morning to early afternoon.

Much colder Thursday through Saturday mornings though gradually warming with a more noticeable change by Sunday after a weak front attempts to enter North and Central with little to no impacts. Afternoons in the lower to mid 60Fs (Central) but to the 70Fs by Sunday or even Saturday south of I4.

BEYOND: Dry for the most part and warm much like a week or so ago. It's as if so far the season is reversing - - for cold weather looks to be having a hard time coming , if not for a chance toward the 27th of the month (as it looks now).  

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