"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

"Good" Chance of Rains on "Friday" (and before)

Confusing Image shows best storm chances Thursday over SW Florida and much of the state on "Good Friday" (especially portions of Central Florida that day)

TODAY: Frontal boundary  from yesterday cleared most of the state as of late morning making for a cool sunrise temperature wise. The boundary now resides near the Florida Straits toward the Keys or rather what remains of it. For the most part, it is quickly being absorbed in the larger synoptic scale higher pressure area well to the north and has lost much of it's identity; but alas, at only 5000 feet above ground the remaining supportive trough is over Central Florida and never will clear out.  That is much more evident than the surface front.  Another system is to approach in the mid-levels later tomorrow and in doing so will begin to buckle the lower level trough northward as a warm-front mainly just above ground level and not to be fully 'realized' at ground level much at all until early Friday as it gets more fully developed and refined nearer to I-10.

TONIGHT: Slight chance of mainly coastal showers along the east coast from Brevard County and south, but mainly focused toward the mid-level trough across Central (Brevard) to Southern Volusia County sometime near or before sunrise (if there is to be any, they will be light for the most part). 

THURSDAY: Showers could occur almost any time tomorrow along the east coast south of I-4 (mainly), closer to the east coast,  but the bigger focus will be toward SW Florida (see above) where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already introduced a "Slight Risk" for severe category like storms where instability will be the greatest coupled with moisture and cold air aloft.  Not so sure about the 'Severe Risk" but it has been called out by SPC so best be forewarned than not at all. Otherwise, outside of that 'general area', showers could occur toward the East coast as noted into Thursday night , with better rain chances as well along a line running from North Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral (mainly along and west of I95 going into the afternoon hours).

FRIDAY: (Image above again). Low pressure in the eastern Gulf (mainly in the mid levels) to approach the state. Just exactly where it will be located and how well it has worked toward the surface is still a bit sketchy (GFS shows it to be mainly a mid-level low), but for now SPC has placed much of the state in a "See Text" zone, implying something noteworthy 'could' occur, if only some stronger thunderstorms or some severe storms but too isolated to be worth a  "Good" Slight Severe storm Risk. 

The focus in regard to big rainfall totals per the GFS has been along the surface to mid-level 'warm front' which should be along to north of I/4 beginning BEFORE sunrise Friday morning, but some strong storms could occur there as well as far north as near JAX. 

It is after the morning toward noontime into early afternoon that appears will be the 'make or break' point in regard to the region further south, which will be solidly in  the 'warm sector' (mainly south of I/4). 

As usual, pre-eminent cloud cover from Gulf Blow Off could hold off instability though so far that has not been shown to be an issue. Chances are always possible that outflow from activity over Northern more regions could establish a pseudo-'cold front' further south toward the Central Dividing Line running from the Tampa bay region toward Brevard County as a result of outflow from rains further north, but playing with falling dominoes and which way they will lean 48 hours in advance is tricky business. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises.

BEYOND: Non-eventful weather pattern seems to be getting ready to be established or Florida for perhaps a week if not more heading toward MAY (can you believe it?)    So it goes. So far Easter-Weekend is looking fairly seasonal for this time of year with no rain in the forecast outside of some chances earlier on Saturday.

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