"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Love Bugs Have Returned With A Vegeance

This will be the last local forecast post for quite a while, as I'll be leaving early Thursday on a plane to Phoenix then driving out to the Great Plains for a Storm Hunting Safari. And, if you haven't figured it out appears that the Love Bugs are out in full get out those "bug guards" for your car.

TODAY: Lingering moisture combined with sea breeze boundary convergence will lead to another chance of isolated thunderstorms today. Believe it or not, there actually was one isolated thunderstorm yesterday near sunset that passed to the north and died as it reached the coast. That was the one lone storm of the day. Today we might actually see a few more storms than yesterday.

The area most likely to receive rain today would be from coastal South Brevard toward Orlando then north to Jacksonville. Coast communities in Brevard..particularly North and Central Portions of the county..will likely not receive any rain untila the 6-9pm time frame, so enjoy the day.

It will be another quite warm day away from the coast, but areas east of US1 should start to feel the sea breeze by no later than 1pm. Temeratures will average right at...or maybe a few degrees above normal inland, whereas the coastal communities will be just a few degrees below normal due to the continued influence of very cool ocean waters.

THURSDAY: One remaining day to maybe squeeze out an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm...but the chance will be significantly less than today. Temperatures running status quo.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Very low rain chance with little change in temperatures...they might be a tad cooler though than they were yesterday and will be today, particularly inland. We could start to see diurnal rainshowers impinging on the coastal communities along Central Florida by Saturday...but that's still a way out to be forecasting the chance of a rain shower. Otherwise, no signifcant weather makers for Central and South Florida as we head into next week.

See you in about 2 weeks!

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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Very Isolated Storms Possible Late, But Strong

Image: A cluster of thunderstorms lines up along I95 Last Summer

SYNOPSIS: Much drier air aloft has moved in to replace yesterday's soggy air mass. There's is still yet some approaching moisture arriving late this afternoon with a pocket of very cool air aloft. As this area moves in very late this afternoon, a chance of an isolated very strong storm could develop along the east coast sea breeze along and east of I-95. Yesterday, Patrick Air Force Base recorded a wind gust of 60mph during the mid-afternoon storms that rolled through the county.

TODAY: Partly cloudy today with temperatures running their ever so steady level as in the past week or two. A light SW wind this morning will give way to a light sea breeze by noon or shortly thereafter. For the most part, today will be very nice and uneventful. Things could get interesting from Vero-Titusville and points east of there after 4 or 5pm as the sea breezes collide and a pocket of cooler, moist air aloft arrives overhead. South of Vero -Miami expect a much greater coverage of storms any time beginning early afternoon.

If a storm can manage to pop in the Brevard and Indian River County area, it could be quite strong. However, any such storms, if they even do develop at all, will be quite isolated...especially compared to yesterday where just about everyone received at least some measurable precipitation.

WEDNESDAY: Still a very small chance of a rain shower or thunderstorm very late in the day along the sea breeze collision, but the chance tomorrow will be even lower than the low chance of today. Needless to say, no outside activities should need to be replanned as it more likely than not that we will see no rain tomorrow afternoon/evening.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Temperatures remaining normal for this time of year, as has been the case the past week. Rain chances running in the very low to none probabilty range.

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Monday, May 17, 2010

The "Umbrella Index" Scale Has Been Activated

Image: A Colorado Sunset taken in May, 1999

The strong high pressure that has had it's grip on the state finally lost control yesterday as thunderstorms developed over the interior late on Sunday. The remnant storm debris washed off to the east as we went into the evening providing portions of coastal East Central Florida with something known as rain...remember what that is?

SYNOPSIS: An upper level disturbance now over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will pass over head today. Moisture is abundant at multiple levels of the atmosphere. Sea breezes will develop along both coasts. A weak frontal boundary is also approaching from the west.

TODAY: High end on the "Umbrella Index" scale. The aforementioned disturbance will begin to exert its influence across the peninsula early in the day and overspread the state by late morning.

Winds will remain SSE-S most of the day away from any shower/storm activity.

Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies early will give way to cloudy conditions. Very good chance of rain or thunderstorms before the noon hour

across pretty much every where in Central Florida as the disturbance passes overhead in tangent with daytime heating. Widespread activity might stabilize the atmosphere somewhat which would preclude and chance of strong storms, but that upper level disturbance bears close scrutiny as we get toward the noon time hour through early afternoon.

In any case, I wouldn't go anywhere today without an umbrella. It's possible that once the system passes overhead the atmosphere will have generally rained itself out...and we will just be left with cloudy skies for the late afternoon and into the evening. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a regeneration of activity along the east coast late in the afternoon into the early evening if the sea breezes can coverage late in the afternoon and shove any developing activity from that collision back toward the coast.

Yeah I know, kind of a flaky forecast. But the atmosphere is being somewhat flaky today...just a big glob of disorganized moisture overhead. The disturbance will be the main kicker...

And temperatures? No big deal. Same as its been for days although they will be tempered down a few degrees due to increased cloud coverage. Suffice it to say we won't be needing the parkas or ear muffs anytime soon. I'd say if you haven't stored them away yet you might as well because, dang, it's almost summer! Sure was a long winter wasn't it?

TUESDAY: The disturbance will have moved off to the east...but moisture will still be hanging around...with a light SSE wind component we could see some regeneration of afternoon thunderstorms east of Orlando and along the coast from Oak Hill south to Miami during the afternoon hours. But coverage will not be nearly as great as it will be today (Monday). Still no changes to the temperature regime.

WEDNESDAY: Maybe a chance of isolated activity again east of Orlando and down the coast, but the chance will be even less than it will be on Tuesday.

I wouldn't make any change in plans if you want to do outdoor activities. Chances are greater that we won't see a drop of rain than see one. Consider yourself the unlucky one if you do get the wet stuff.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Very little chance of rain with temperatures maintaining the comfortable level of the past week.

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Saturday, May 15, 2010

Benign Weather For Central Florida Is Coming to an End

Image: That last launch of Space Shuttle Atlantis on 2:20pm EDT 5/14/2010

Synopsis: The seemingly relentless ridge of high pressure that has been influencing the weather across all of Florida is finally going to be breaking down and shifting further east into the Atlantic during the next 12-24 hours.

Greater atmospheric moisture and Southeast - south winds will overspread the region by late Sunday and especially Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: One more day of monotony. Continuing the status quo weather of the past week with comfortable temperatures and off and on scattered clouds. East winds in the afternoon of 10-18mph. No rain.

SUNDAY: Transition day. The high pressure system that has had its lock on the area will finally be moving out in its entirety. The area first to realize the changes will be southwest Florida. The central portion of the state will see an increase in clouds though at all levels as the wind becomes more southeasterly.

SUNDAY NIGHT: More clouds move in as winds continue for the SE to SSE. A muggy and warmer night in-store.

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a south wind as a frontal system pulls in across the state. The boundary along with afternoon sea breeze convergences in the afternoon hours will interact to generate bountiful rain shower and thunderstorm activity, assisted by somewhat colder temperatures aloft.

There are hints that rainfall could occur just about anytime from late Monday through Tuesday in its having an umbrella handy just might be something we'll need to consider.

Some storms could be strong, especially by mid afternoon Monday! We'll need to keep our eyes and ears perked for this time frame as it gets closer.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looks like a drying out time period as it stands now for the center part of the state, but the rainy conditions will continue from Sebastian to Sarasota and points south into the weekend; however, an minor change in the expected pattern could translate to rain chances continuing for the central portions as well, so this bears watching.

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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Fair in Florida, Severe Weather for the Plains

Image: Will a "Death Ridge" Dash Our Chase Plans for late May?!

A meandering cold frontal system is sagging south into the Southern Plains this morning. To the south of this boundary dynamics will still be favorable for severe weather in Upton, Reagan, and Crane counties of SW Texas and further east toward Abilene (at a minimum) by mid-late afternoon. Other parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio will also see some severe weather today...and more flooding rains could eventually threaten already soaked Tennessee. Meanwhile..back at the farm... East Central Florida we remain high and dry. With passing clouds and seasonal temperatures the pre-thunderstorm season of eventful-less days will continue.

TODAY In East Central Florida - MONDAY: Mundane weather continues.

Strong high pressure will prevail across all of the southeast states for at least the first half of this period, although Florida will be dominated by the high pressure for the entire time frame.

This means continued temperatures, sky conditions, and wind speed/direction as has been observed for the past several days already. But the winds of change might not be too far away.

LATE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A coldfront will eventual work its way into the north part of the state..and slowly sink south toward Central Florida by Wednesday. Moisture at all levels of the atmosphere will increase across the region and temperatures aloft will cool somewhat. We could even see a sea breeze convergence set up on Tuesday and Wednesday with winds aloft that will steer any activity that does happen to develop toward the East Coastal communities.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Very undecided about this time frame. There are hints that a surface low could actually form in the vicinity of what will be a pseudo washed out frontal boundary by then off the Florida East Coast.

Could it be a tropical system in nature?!! Seems VERY doubtful at this time as water temperatures wouldn't really support this notion. But it's still interesting what one of the models is trying to do with the boundary regardless.

With that said...any thing after Wednesday remains "up in the air"...but one thing is certain. We won't be getting any cooler, it won't be getting any windier (in fact, it will be less windy than it has been lately), and we won't be getting any 'wash-out' conditions. Let's just ear-mark this time frame and look ahead to it in future posts to see if anything actually does develop or comes even close to what the model is indicating. I remain extremely skeptical that anything actually will.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010

More in Store - Severe Weather for the Plains Today

Image: The infamous Hesston, Kansas tornado taken in the 1990s (not mine)

High pressure remains planted off the U.S. Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a low pressure system has moved through the Intermountain Region and will we moving into the Central Plains later this afternoon into the evening hours.

A dry line will extend from a developing surface low (and it's accompanying cold front) from S. Central Kansas south into Texas this evening. Dynamics will again be favorable for violent thunderstorms across portions of north central Texas, Central Oklahoma, East and Central Kansas, and into Western Missouri by this evening. The greatest threat of supercells and tornadoes appears to be in a similar area as it was on Monday...Round 2. The region extending from Central Oklahoma north and east to South Central Kansas and points east and north east of there will be the most likely area for intense storms and tornadoes today.

TODAY-MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK: More in store. The same as it's been and seemingly always will be. Little change in temperatures, winds, and sky conditions.

NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A cold front will be making its way into the Southeast U.S. Winds will eventually become southwesterly by Tuesday harboring warmer temperatures and an introduction of rain chances in the form of afternoon thunderstorms into the forecast.

BEYOND: The front will not pass through but rather wane to nonexistence near across N. Florida or Central Florida. Although it appears at this time that any rain chances will again go to near zero this will have to be monitored. Decaying fronts have a way of lingering longer than welcomed...and thus continuing rain chances over and above that which is forecast by the models when one gets this far out in the forecast time frame.

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas Yesterday Shatter Lives

Radar image shows the barrage of storms after they have passed well east of the Oklahoma City area which was hard hit.

As was well advertised by the folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, Oklahoma and the affiliate National Weather Service (NWS) Offices, yesterday was a big tornado day for Oklahoma and Kansas.

The storms moved very fast, were extremely dangerous, and not conducive for a thoroughly rewarding day of storm chasing (for those so inclined), although the lucky few I'm sure will beg to differ. All in all, most chases were fleeting in length. Not sure who was getting chased yesterday...the storms or the enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, 5 lives were lost to the hands of these storms and approximately 58 others were injured. Property damage was extensive across a wide expanse of Oklahoma. The Weather Channel (TWC) was covering the activity nicely for us folks not located in that region. I can't imagine what it would have been like to be watching a local TV station while being impacted by those fast moving storms.

Closer to home - -

Stacked high pressure off the U.S. East Coast continues to be the dominant weather feature for the folks in Florida...and this will continue to be the case until next Tuesday when an upper level trough will dig into the Southeast U.S.

Even then, it currently appears that his trough will have minimal impact on South and Central Florida. Therefore...and with that said:

TODAY-THE WEEKEND: The monotonous pattern continues. If one is so inclined to like days on end with little variability in temperatures and sky conditions, then these days will be well suited for you.

Lows in the low 70s and highs in the low 80s along the coast and a few degrees warmer inland. Somewhat breezy winds generally from the east and gradually shifting to the ESE - SE by the weekend. Partly cloudy to widely scattered clouds and no rain.

Wake me when it's over...zzzzzz

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Monday, May 10, 2010

Big Storms in the Plains Today and Tonight!!

All eyes will be on the sky today across the east half of Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri as we work into the post-sunset hours as a very fast moving and developing storm system impinges into that region during the course of the next 12-24 hours. Directional wind shear/helicity values at the low levels will be off the charts. Any limited instability due to cloud cover in this region will be overcome as we work into the late afternoon/early evening hours.

A dry line will extend from North Central Kansas well into Texas where more isolated storms will be possible. In fact, as we work into late afternoon a variety of upper level winds screaming at 50+ kts will abet the dryline to punch across the OK/KS border which will give rapid rise to supercell thunderstorm structures and the development of long tracked, strong tornadoes if all pans out as currently depicted. Meanwhile, closer to home in East Central Florida:

TODAY: Can't say the same for the weather here. In fact, it will be benign in the most unruly of fashion...we are out of control with pleasant weather for the day. In fact, for the week!
Expect the sky to be clear with a good east breeze of the ocean and very mild but typical temperatures for this time of year in the pre-summer / dry spell environment. Lows in the low 70s and highs in the low 80s along the coast...mid 80s inland.

THROUGH SATURDAY: The only change will be for the wind to become a little more from the ESE-SE by the weekend. One or maybe even two cold fronts will try to penetrate down the state but with no success. It's too late in the year to be getting cold fronts, and mother nature is letting us know that.

VERY EXTENDED: Still no sign of any change in this persistent pattern for the extreme Southeast (namely peninsular Florida) for over 10 days. Fire weather might become an issue as we enter next week...but the wet season will be right around the corner.

Have you noticed how FEW brush fires we've had this year?! I guess we can thank El Nino for that. Might as well inflate the pool float, slap on the sunscreen, focus those sunglasses and enjoy.

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Sunday, May 9, 2010

Happy Mother's Day

It's a day of rest for all moms and for East Central Florida in the weather department.

THIS WEEK: Good luck to all Storm Chasers on Monday!! Not a hint of weather to speak of back east. Strong high pressure will be the ruling force across the SE as the Great Plains, particularly South Central Kansas and North Central Oklahoma kick into High Gear with long tracking supercells and tornadoes on Monday.

Closer to home in East Central Florida. Breezy on shore flow all week with hardly a change in high (low 80s) and low temperatures (low-mid 70s) all week under clear to widely scattered cloud conditions through Friday and into next weekend. No rain.

Time to think of bigger eggs to fry for blog posting. Perhaps we can shift our focus to the more active weather areas for a change (like the Southern and Central Plains states).

On the other hand, perhaps once this benign pattern breaks we'll be ready to enter our thunderstorm season.

Happy Mother's Day!

"Let me be an instrument of thy Peace..Let me Love Rather than Be Loved"

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Saturday, May 8, 2010

Warmest Day of the Year for Extreme East Central Florida

Image: Beach Sunrise At Cocoa Beach Pier

Synopsis: A cold frontal boundary will be approaching the state during the day and into the evening. Strong high pressure will build in rapidly behind it from the NW and West on Sunday.

TODAY: In advance of the cold front winds will remain from the west all day today (and we won't get the usual cooling sea breeze in the afternoon). As a result, the temperature for the first time this year will be permitted to sky rocket right along the coast today (for a change). Inland temperatures will remain status quo in the low 90s, but locations like Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, PAFB, Satellite Beach and Indian Harbor will really feel a big difference today with the high right around 90..and maybe even a little higher. No rain.

TONIGHT: The cold front will pass through during the very early morning hours and will be accompanied only by a few clouds. The wind will quickly swing around from the WSW to NE to ENE by shortly after (if not at..) sunrise.

As a result, we will have an onshore component wind say good bye to the very warm temperatures we'll have today.

SUNDAY: Much cooler by at least 10 degrees from today (Saturday) with a high right around 77-79 degrees.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Low temperatures will not really be affected much along the immediate coast with a low near 71-73 degrees.

MONDAY: Just like Sunday. High near or just below 80 and mostly clear skies.

REST OF THE WEEK: Gradually moderating temperatures with E-ESE winds. Much cooler right along the coast than it will be inland with clear to widely scattered clouds in the sky conditions category. So what's new! TOTALLY UNEVENTFUL.

Any outside activities planned for the upcoming week should be able to go without a hitch.

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Friday, May 7, 2010

Strong Storms Yesterday - More Today

Image: This storm produced wind damage in Port St. John and the Titusville area during the time these photos were taken

More strong to possibly severe storms today for parts of East Central and Southeast Florida!

SYNOPSIS: Remnants of a frontal boundary remain over a broad area of the south half of the state early this morning. A cold front is passing through the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley region and high pressure exists well out into the Atlantic which extends across S. Florida

TODAY: Another day much like yesterday with some minor differences. Yes, we will have CAPEs around 3000 once again and LIs are forecasted to be in the -8 to -10 range once again with some mid-level drying. Steering flow however, will be a bit stronger out of the WNW-NW which could aid in storms being even MORE organized today.

Light and variable winds at the surface will succumb to the stablilizing sea-breeze along the immediate coast across Central Florida by noon time.

Thus, feel that the strongest of storms won't quite make it to the coast with any significant "punch" , but it will be a different story inland.

The chance of rain will be greatest across South Brevard, Osceola, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties then south and east to West Palm Beach and toward Miami. The strongest of storms, if the forecast parameters for this afternoon occur where currently expected, will occur over southern Osceola County and Okeechobee counties by mid-late afternoon. Areas around Cocoa, Merritt Island, Cape Canaveral and points south might hear some thunder and get some rain as well...just not with of great/strong intensity once the storms get east of I-95 or perhaps even US-1.
Storms today could be QUITE strong to possibly severe and again produce small hail and damaging wind gusts!

Highs today will peak at noon before sea-breeze onset then cool a few degrees right along the coast. We'll shoot for 86 before things cool off.

All rain to end at if not shortly before sunset.

SATURDAY: One last warm day as the front across the Mississippi River Valley region today moves in to the Deep South. Storms will still be possible from West Palm Beach and points south as well as north of Daytona Beach, leaving the central peninsula high and dry (and very warm). Highs in the mid-upper 80s all regions.

SUNDAY: By sunrise the front will have passed through Central Florida with only some clouds to show for it. High temperatures will lower to the low 80s as onshore flow will be prevalent which will transport cool, oceanic air across the area under a dryer layer of air above that.

MONDAY-BEYOND: No sign of rain or significant temperature changes. High pressure will build south from the mid-Atlantic region behind the front which will provide for light onshore flow and stable air. As mentioned yesterday...we are not quite yet in the 'wet season'. Not for a couple more weeks

No comments:

Thursday, May 6, 2010

"It's Beginning To Look a Lot Like..."...Summer

TThunderstorm gust fronts move in on Cape Canaveral, Florida

Unlike the winter time when we were in a high shear, low CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) environment, we are in more of a low shear, high CAPE one which is typical of summer in Florida. These conditions aren't here to stay just yet...but a sampling of summer, like yesterday, will be with us once again today and tomorrow (more so across South Brevard and points south of there tomorrow). These conditions both days will be especially prevalent east of the I-95 corridor where a sea breeze convergence at the low levels of the atmosphere will occur and CAPE/EHI (Energy Helicity Index) Values, and LIs (Lifted Indices) are maximized.

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure to remain well to east of the state over the Atlantic Ocean extends west toward the Florida Straits as the old cold frontal boundary disperses its remnant ashes across the Central Florida Peninsula very VERY early this morning. This boundary (if one can even call it THAT)...will be in place today as it slowly buries itself and digs its own grave through tonight and into tomorrow. After tomorrow it will be non-existent as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico and joins forces with the Atlantic high pressure system. The combined forces will assert their strength over the state as we move into the weekend and for most, if not all, of next week.

TODAY: With the boundary in place and plentiful sunshine to start the day we will initially receive some good environmental atmospheric heating with lots of moist air (high dew point temperatures) in place. We might see some good low cloud coverage develop shortly after sunrise as this moisture laden atmosphere starts to get worked on by the suns heat.,..but by mid morning those clouds will wane as true cumulus clouds begin to form in earnest.

The low this morning in the mid 70s will clear the path by noon for a high temperature heading toward 88 least before the sea breeze kicks in which it will assuredly do today. In fact, yesterday Patrick AFB was nearly 88 degrees; then, within one hour after the sea breeze pushed in, they dropped a full 10 degrees as cool air above the ocean's surface was transported onto the coast east of I-95. The sea breeze doesn't make it inland very far under this synoptic set up, therefore no one west of I-95 or even US1 experienced the big temperature drop. No wonder though...the latest water temperature taken from Cocoa Beach was only 71 degrees!

Expect the true cumulus clouds to increase in number and size by noon...with thunderstorms and rain showers developing by mid afternoon and continuing and increasing in coverage until sunset after which they will quickly dissipate without support from the suns heat (for the most part). Any particular storm that happens to go up late in the day or early evening in an area that hasn't been worked over by earlier convection could linger until 9-10pm.

Some storms could be particularly strong today as we will have CAPE values in the 2500-2900 range, LIs around -7, and good EHI values right along and immediately east of where the sea breeze convergence occurs. In other words, all these values will be maximized east of Orlando in a zone bounded by Titusville to the north and West Palm Beach to the south and east of I-95. In other words, all of extreme East Central Florida has the chance to experience some frequent lightning (always dangerous), strong wind gusts, and maybe even small dinky hail under the strongest of storm updrafts. Storms will approach today from the west of just south of due west at 15-20 mph. We might even hear a severe thunderstorm warning or two during the day across portions of the east central peninsula! And as such, the possibility of a waterspout is not entirely out of the question (either over the rivers or the ocean).

Anyone planning outdoor activities should plan to have all actions completed by 2pm...not to say it's going to rain right after that time...but the possibilities will certainly exist by then...if not sooner. Rain coverage for the entire central peninsula, but the possibilities will exist mainly just for the east half of the state..with a wider coverage west of that axis.

TONIGHT: Rapidly improving conditions near sunset or shortly thereafter once the last vestiges of any storms that might have formulated die a painless death before the last quarter of the moon even begins to rise. Low in the low -mid 70s.

FRIDAY: Conditions will be similar to today but with slightly less dynamics as the focal point for the most likely activity shifts more toward the southeast quadrant of the peninsula. South Brevard will be more likely to experience that chance of a storm than those folks further north into Central Brevard. North Brevard will likely be entirely clear of any rain possibilities

We will again see a warm start to the day, but again cooling rapidly right along the coast east of US-1 and particularly east of the rivers once the sea breeze becomes established. Highs generally in the mid-80s.

THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND: High pressure both at the surface and aloft will initially be the dominating feature across the state which will greatly inhibit convection (rain/storm chances) other than over extreme S. Florida. A cold front, however, will push through by Sunday morning (a dry front) shifting our winds to the North and eventually NE-NNE by mid-late day Sunday. These winds will harbor in dryer and a little cooler air for the second half of the weekend and into mid-week next week. Lows around 71 and highs more toward the lower 80s. Actually, the folks right along the coast won't feel the impact from the front since they've already been feeling the cooling affects from the ocean (as mentioned earlier). It's is those folks well inland who have been seeing highs in the low - mid 90s lately that will really notice the cool down.

Our next true shot at rain is beyond the scope of any reliable information currently available. But if this upcoming pattern is true to form for this time of year, it will be quite some time before it rains again after today and perhaps tomorrow for Central Florida

No comments:

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Some Cloudiness Early, Otherwise Nearly Status Quo

Image: Bird of Paradise Bloom

SYNOPSIS: High pressure has weakened and looms over the Western Atlantic as a washed out frontal boundary fizzles over North Central Florida. Moisture from this boundary and land/sea breeze convergence over the eastern interior will trigger some rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the day today. Temperatures to maintain their regime of recent days but slightly cooler, mainly inland, due to cloud coverage.

TODAY: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with a light south wind. If we can get a land breeze going like we did overnight the temperatures will be significantly warmer right along the coast where the immediate winds off the ocean have had a big impact the past couple of days. But as of now, it does not appear that the pressure gradient which would normally provide a light SW wind will be overcome by the sea breeze. As a result, the high temperature today will likely be sometime around 10am along the coast (as it was yesterday) around 81 degrees.

There is a chance that some rain showers or even a thunderstorm could formulate any time after 1pm, but the trigger mechanism will be weak at best, so believe that for the most part most areas will remain rain free. That does not mean, please note, that it definitely will not rain. The chance of rain will be here...just where exactly it does so is impossible to say. The chance of rain as advertised on TV might be an over-rated 40% though. The greater chance will be over the interior and north of Orlando.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and rain chances ending the further into the evening we go with a low in the low-mid 70s.

THURSDAY: Similar to today, but with even less of a chance of rain than today and an overall less cloud coverage pattern once one averages out the day. Temperatures a bit warmer during the afternoon as a result of there being fewer clouds around.

FRIDAY: The high pressure over the Atlantic restrengthens to extend its axis across the southern or central peninsula and joins forces with one that has been building north from the Yucatan. These two entities will be the driving force behind our weather for several days to come. That being...there will be no weather with nearly a nearly routinely normal temperature regime for this time of year, both for the immediate coast and inland...yawn....!

SATURDAY -TUESDAY: As relayed yesterday, another front will begin to enter the extreme SE U.S. during the weekend, but the high pressure will remain the dominant force concerning the weather around here. That said, expect light onshore flow during the afternoons with the resultant high around 80 along the coast and low-mid 80s inland. Over night lows in the low 70s.

As long as the ocean temperature remains around 73 degrees, that is what the low temperature will be for communities along route A1A, and probably a little warmer than that away from the coast. Highs will, as has been the painfully monotonous pattern, higher inland and away from those Icelandic ocean waters! Brrrr.

The good thing in all of this is that the coastal folks don't need to turn on their air conditioners other than to dehumidify the air a bit. Summer is just around the corner though.

Remember, some of our greatest hot periods are not in the middle of the summer but rather during the last week of May- mid June.

No comments:

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

1% Chance of Rain Late Today

Image: A Recent Pool Side Bloom

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure to the east of Florida is gradually weakening and will shift slowly east and a bit south during the day. In response, the wind will become more southerly to even SSW for a time early today cutting off the cool, ocean sea-breeze close to the coast before mid-afternoon.

TODAY: Kind of cool this morning with a low around 71 degrees. Light S-SSW wind through noon time. The more westerly we can get the wind the warmer it will be east of I-95. Yesterday only got up to 79 degrees in Cape Canaveral. That's a good 11 degrees cooler than most of the inland locations.  It shouldn't be quite as hazy today (not that it was all so bad yesterday).

There is a VERY small chance there could be a light rain shower near the coast around sunset, but the chance is so small I'd still say it's a zero percent chance...okay..let's say there's a 1% chance of rain today. For the most part the sky will be clear other than a few widely scattered stratocumulus clouds before noon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low near 71.

WEDNESDAY: The same front that created havoc over Dixie during the weekend will finally sink its pathetically weakened state into the Central Peninsula. This, along with a light sea-breeze / land-breeze convergence , westerly flow aloft, and relatively drier and cooler air in the mid-levels will act as a catalyst for rain showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm to develop by mid-afternoon through sunset.  Rain chances officially stand at 40% per the National Weather Service, but that might get bumped up contingent upon the actual amount of available moisture for storm generation tomorrow, which won't be determined until the weather balloons are launched Wednesday morning. My guess is that the chance will get bumped up.

High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler than they will be today because of additional cloud coverage and the development of those potential showers and storms during the peak heating hours.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain chances continue into the evening hours with a low in the low 70s. It should be noted that this isn't a "rain out" situation.  Just afternoon and evening 'stuff'.

THURSDAY: The "by now" totally decayed frontal boundary will linger somewhere across Central to South Central Florida and again act as a trigger for storm redevelopment during the afternoon hours. However, the chance of rain will be less than it will be on Wednesday, and temperatures as a result will also be a few degrees warmer. Probably much like they've been the past couple of days east of I-95 (which has already felt the cooling affects of the ocean)...whereas further inland they high temperature will be a few degrees cooler than the low-mid 90s that they have been experiencing.  

That's right, the temperature has been in the 90s inland the past couple of days. If you live right on or close to the coast you'd never know it though.  This is very typical of early to mid-spring temperature conditions though so I'm not surprised.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: High pressure will build north from the Yucatan/Mexico and cut of the moisture feed from the next frontal boundary that will be penetrating the Deep South and Florida. Thus, not expecting precipitation at this point with the next front as temperatures run right around average, or typical, for this time of year for the coast and inland.

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Monday, May 3, 2010

Warmer Tuesday, Wet on Wednesday (Perhaps)

(Image: Sunrise off Harrison Ave, Cape Canaveral, Sunday)

Another mild early morning along all of Central Florida early this Monday morning. No significant changes the next 36 hours.

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure continues to the east of Florida. Circulation around this high will produce yet again a mildly breezy afternoon with a slight onshore component and subsidence aloft resulting in slightly hazy conditions and very warm to hot conditions west of I-95 (well inland). In fact, temperatures yesterday were as much as 10 degrees warmer in that location than along the A1A corridor.

TODAY: Clear to scattered clouds by late in the day sky conditions with SSE winds around 15-25 mph by afternoon. High along the coast of 83 degrees but as much as 10 degrees warmer west of I-95 and 5 degrees warmer west of US-1.

TONIGHT: A few scattered high clouds with winds becoming more southerly but maintaining their strength.

TUESDAY: This could be a warm one for the coast. A by then old frontal boundary will be sinking into the Florida Panhandle as a strong low pressure begins to shift off the coast of Maine. The low pressure will force that strong high pressure to sink further south and east and weaken with time. As a result the winds will begin to wane and shift more toward the SSW...a land breeze for the A1A corridor. Resultant high temperatures for the coast could be significantly warmer on Tuesday although well inland it will be just another day like those of recent days (temperature wise)....skies will be partly cloudy. In fact, by late in the day some light showers might materialize from a Central Brevard-Orlando line...but nothing of significance.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Light SW winds overnight and partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 70s.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds becoming cloudy with a decent shot of afternoon evening rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms for most if not all of East Central Florida. High temperatures will be tempered to the low - mid 80s under the mostly cloudy sky conditions. Remnant rain showers might linger well into the overnight hours.

THURSDAY: Much like Wednesday it will be mostly cloudy by afternoon with another round of rain showers and thunderstorms with slightly cooler temperatures due to cloud cover, but nothing of significance. In fact, I think our days of light jackets and cool weather are now GONE. I see no cooling trends anywhere on the horizon that are of notable difference from what we've been experiencing lately.

BY FRIDAY: As the boundary washes out across the central peninsula another one will be ready to move right on in to replace it. These boundaries will never make it to South Florida as it appears now. This seconds boundary does NOT look like it will have the potential to be a rain producer as the more recent one will be, as the atmosphere will have been "squeezed" out of the extra needed moisture to generate rain storms...

In general, in the longer term we will have climatologically normal temperatures with little in the way of rainfall. Everything will be "normal" in other words for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the Southern Plains will be cranking up next week for another severe weather event. This one will be further west than the ones that have occurred in Tornado Valley (the SE) lately (Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, etc). Wish I was out there next week.

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Sunday, May 2, 2010

No Change Through Tuesday

Image: Severe Thunderstorm In Osceola County  (green sky!!)

BORING but NICE are the operative words for the day. No change in the current weather regime through Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS:  Strong high pressure over the Western Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature the next few days. Anticyclonic circulation around this system will harbor SSE winds at 10-22mph during the day and around 10-15 mph over night.  A weak trough of low pressure will gradually sink into the Central Peninsula early Wednesday which will act as a focus for rain/thundershower activity from Wednesday - Friday.   Additionally, the strong southerly flow we've been experiencing of late will weaken and seabreeze collision type thunderstorms will be the mechanism to also trigger thunderstorms (much like during the summer months).  Yahoo!

TODAY: Breezy SSE winds of 10-23 mph with a high along the coast of 83 degrees and about 5-8 degrees warmer west of the Indian River. (about 3-5 degrees warmer west of the Banana River).  Skies will be sunny with nary a cloud in the sky.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low along the coast in modified oceanic air of 73 degrees (in other words, right at the ocean's water temperature)...maybe a degree or two warmer inland.

MONDAY: Same as today...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

TUESDAY: Slight increase in some clouds but otherwise no change to winds or temperatures.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary which is creating havoc in the Deep South and by now also in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. will finally sink into Central Florida. This will be the focus, along with seabreeze convergence from both coasts, for rain showers and thunderstorms.  These should be inheritantly generic in nature with the greatest threat being lightning (as is always the case with thunderstorms).

THURSDAY - FRIDAY: As of now..looks to be about the same as Wednesday as the boundary will wash out over the region.  Temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees cooler inland but remain about the same as they are today along the may actually get warmer along the coast as we will lose the strong onshore flow that has been continuous 24 hours a day lately.  Mornings will be nearly calm and partly cloudy with a light land breeze possible of 5 mph or less..afternoons will have an onshore flow of 10-15mph with, again, afternoon thunderstorms.  It will be like summer for the most part except the afternoon high tempeartures will be about 5-9 degrees cooler than our typical summer day.

MEANWHILE: Severe weather including tornadoes and flooding continues to plague Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas...this area will spread east and north today and tommorrow..and after today will be mostly a flooding threat for these regions...while Florida (except for the panhandle)..will remain high and dry until Tuesday...where the northern parts will be first to feel the affects of the weakening front (boundary) that will sink into the Central Peninsula on Wednesday.

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Saturday, May 1, 2010

Warmest Since Early September Today

The heat is finally going to be on today, and more so as we go through Tuesday. Chance of rain is pretty much nil during this period as well.

SYNOPSIS:Strong high pressure continues just to the east of Florida, and clockwise circulation around this high will generate a SSE wind of 10-20 mph this afternoon under mostly partly cloudy skies. Although the air will be humid, warm air aloft will preclude air parcels from rising much to create the ever so desired thunderstorms.

TODAY-TUESDAY: Patches of altocumulus clouds will be the predominant cloud status...with a few stratocu thrown in for good measure, but it will be mostly sunny for the most part with a high near 85 along the coast and near 90 as one works their way west and away from the coast.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday and enjoy. No rain is in the outlook until at least Wednesday...and I'd bet my bottom dollar that even that possibility will be slim pickins.

We are literally in the lull before the proverbial storm(s) which begin in earnest on June 1. I don't see any real cool weather on the horizon..although we can still expect some days of slightly cooler mornings from time to time before summer comes into full swing.

Enjoy! And keep that sunscreen handy ;-)

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