"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Forecast Flip Flop For Monday - Wednesday From 'Dry' to 'Wet' ?"

Harvest Moon Setting Saturday Morning - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: "Julia's Memory' continues to spin seemingly on mere momentum generally  about 300NM east of JAX moving little since yesterday afternoon. All in all today appears to be somewhat similar to yesterday but with a greater focus on late day storm activity more toward the West up and down the state rather than only 'The South' -   some other storms might fire along the Lake Okeechobee Breeze earlier in the day (like yesterday). 


Emphasis on this period may well be largely contingent upon a combination of what occurs where there is a break in the Atlantic - Southern Plains ridge axis that has prevailed much of the summer. Latest NAM and to less of a degree , the GFS, imply there will be a break as an upper level trough traverses west to east further north and makes a bit of a tele-connection with 'The Julia Environment' east of Florida. 

Net affect is that as moisture remains over Florida or even increases into Monday through Tuesday  Julia or part of what remains 'appears' might become absorbed into that 'troughing' action over the  southeast Deep South, Florida in particular. 

If so, we could see vorticity (upper / mid level energy) across the state at random times which acts to increases rain chances when in combination with typical day time heating and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The GFS and NAM depict the 700mb temperatures might lower a few degrees which would make for earlier in the day shower/storm initiation and greater coverage overall.

 Both indicate, the NAM to much more of a degree and not trusted as the model output is showing 'significant rainfall totals', an increase in steering of activity toward the East Coast Monday and Tuesday, but both do show hints of this to occur in some form or fashion. 

The net result overall is increased chances of rain and thunder with two day rainfall totals from 1-3" possible if this will be the case as described (generally). Situation is worth monitoring if not for interest's sake or if planning out door activities either day. The pattern ends on Wednesday, perhaps as rain chances shift to the south half of the state.

Saturday Morning Facing West - Cape Canaveral Sunrise

BEYOND: Moisture from 'said set' up aforementioned shifts out to the east and dissipates per latest as what might be a named tropical system approaches from the east ...well east rather out in the Atlantic. Chances are if this system gets named it will lift out to the north well before ever reaching Florida.

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