"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 6, 2012

Better Chance of Inland Storm Coverage Today

Granted, it comes down to some guess work. Better chances for
storms appears in the making after 4pm through 8pm Interior Central Florida. One or two could be stronger than' normal',  meaning they will actual Thunder-Storms (TS to TS+)) but should any storm be warned, it might be hard to verify. Most will be TS- .
 TODAY: Mid-upper level trough has pressed off the mid-Atlantic Coast overnight with a surface through the mid-levels low center and trough extending SSW toward South Carolina. As a result, the surface to mid-level troughs have both shifted south over Florida toward the northern side of the "Big Lake Down South".

Although the winds aloft hold little bearing on the overall outcome on where any storms will form and more importantly head toward either way since they are less than 10mph ,   the east coast sea breeze could be delayed about an hour, for warm to hot early afternoon temperature readings toward the beaches.  Otherwise, per latest analysis/forecast via short term guidance, although atmospheric moisture (PWAT or precipitable water) is not any greater than the past two days, it appears the distribution of it is more aligned for cloud and storm bearing type of weather rather than being thinly distributed throughout the boundary layer, or weather bearing birth place for clouds and storms, as was the case yesterday. 

Given though, it is hardly up toward seasonal norms to warrant scattered storms in a general forecast by late afternoon there could be a few at one time over Central toward South Central with little motion other than oblong motion along boundary propagation as a result of lake breezes and the sea breezes from each coast.

South Florida has an issue. High clouds are swiping over head from Central earlier today and might offset in part convective initiation in this region until a bit later than model guidance portrays. Likewise toward the north, another factor could offset true storm formation, especially west of Ormond beach or perhaps even Daytona until near or after dark, likely due to some subsidence in the wake of early day convection over the Panhandle Region (outflows).

 All in all, today appears to be getting off to a slower start than yesterday over South Florida, and chances are that during peak heating ..moisture distribution will be thrown out of whack (for the most part) during uncapped evaporation phase for much in the thunder zone except toward Lake Okeechobee region, with the majority of storm formation abiding until post - 4:30pm - haste.  Given the latter time of day, with sea breezes having thus by then formed, true storms might be a bit hard to come by, but they will appear nonetheless. Candidate areas appear to be again Lake County toward Seminole, parts of Polk and Osceola and a bit westward from those locales. Showers might be able to form along the east coast sea breeze as well toward I-95/US-1 but very isolated at best by mid-afternoon. More than likely, after early showerage (if any) there will be a lull until the appointed time.

WEEKEND: Most activity over the weekend appears will be along I-4 toward North of I-4,. This puts Ocala toward Gainesville in the mix and south toward north Orange and west Volusia. A dry slot appears to be in the making for dead Central with a much weakened  pseudo-tropical wave putting a dab of paint on the far south for a part of the weekend, meaning chances of showers and thunder (especially SW Florida).

East coast beach goers should have no problems getting sunburned, and hopefully not forecast burned, moon burned, or for the altogether adversarial of sun and moon burn, TV burned.  Can always watch The Weather Channel.

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