"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 4, 2011

"Dwell In Possibility" - Emily (Dickinson)

The most activity should begin after 5pm and peak in intensity and number from 6:00pm through 8:00pm. This image shows the moisture content of the atmosphere between the lifted condensation level (LCL) and the level of free convection (LFC)

TODAY: As noted several times in the past this summer, the pattern over Florida in the absence of a major, large scale (synoptic) weather system, tends to have a habit of repeating the previous day's pattern for a 2-3 day period under most normal circumstances, and such is the case for today. Today is definitely appearing to be somewhat  of a variant between Tuesday and Wednesday combined.  

Early day showers formed along the west coast, and recently sent outflow well to the east ( into the interior)  with significant clearing behind them from the west coast. Not sure this area will recover, but believe it will to some degree later today.  Otherwise, there is only a very weak surface ridge axis over SE Florida, and only light sea breezes along the east coast.  The driest air is just north of a Titusville to north of Brooksville not expecting any storms in that area today except toward the far north as noted in the image shown.

The deepest PWAT (precipitable water) air is located over the South half of South Central and all of South Florida. There, for the most part ..theoretically, is where the most storms should be. However, I'm not fully convinced this will be the case today. Showers should begin earlier over the Southern Portion of the state as has been the case the past two days. Outflows from these showers and storms should scour out adjacent areas which might never recover enough to generate storms (as has occurred over SW Florida already).  This is because the air aloft today is quite warm still, thus, storm generation requires some very good low level moisture convergence (forcing) of sea/lake breezes and outflows. What's done is done...and since South Florida might get worked over earlier..those outflows might propagate northward late today.  As has been the case, the PWAT increases after believe those areas that are currently marginal toward Northern portions of South Central might find that necessary ingredient in place late today. Given the latest trends, a small thundershower could form almost anywhere along the east coast sea breeze from Melbourne and south to Miami. 

 SPC Mesoscale analysis has been showing all morning a band of moisture convergence and precipitation replacement values all along and south of the Beach Line...although the values required for storms is not yet available. That might occur very late today, and for now are a premonition of things to come.  A Storm or two should be able to generate very frequent lightning, mainly over the interior toward evening. My thoughts now is that would be over Osceola and Okeechobee Counties, with perhaps some recovery combined with outflows over SW Florida. So again, not unlike many summer days, it is like trying to anticipate how the swerving line of pre-established dominoes that have been set up will fall...and if they do..if the will fall successfully.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A low and mid level trough is trying to establish into the Deep South. This was shown late yesterday and over night by the very active strong to severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Oklahoma (those areas have not had big storms over a large area for quite some time). Additionally, strong storms moved into the north halves of Alabama and Georgia. Again, a it appears the stage is being set for days to come. Another first.  This area of lower pressure should begin to indirectly start to impinge into North Florida on Friday and more so on Saturday for better rain chances there. We might end those days with a string of storms up and down the entire Western interior by the time the day is through..with other storms / showers over mainly the southern part of the state.

SUNDAY-FRIDAY: Increased rain chances, especially late Sunday through Tuesday; However, much of this period in regard to just how much is completely contingent upon the track of Emily, which is currently trying to come out of its stupor. The mind is willing, but the muscles are weak..and more battles are on the way for the storm.


“Not knowing when the dawn will come, I open every door.” - Emily

As of noon, Tropical Storm Emily is creeping toward the WNW at 5mph. I except this motion to continue in stairstep fashion between W to NW through tomorrow morning. Her location is shown below..although by now the storm is a bit to the west and north from shown. 

The following are being observed: 1) Emily's strength has remained constant, and little change is expected although I wouldn't be surprised to see some weakening in the next 12 hours, because; 2) Emily is headed toward the very 'hilly' terrain of tree-barren Haiti. Even one tree can soak up millions of gallons of water, so with such tree depraved landscape, combined with the slow forward motion and abundant rainfall likely, flash flooding looks to be a very, very big issue for  Haiti. 3) Emily has very good outflow, such so that it should hold its own at least for a while while near and over Land 4) Emily's circulation is also approaching the very hilly terrain of Eastern Cuba...more problems. 5) Dry air to the north of Emily is eroding away significantly, so that's one thing the storm has going for it; 6) Shear to the north of Emily is INcreasing north of Haiti and Cuba..not so good.

With that said:

HERE is the latest Visible satellite image of Emily in the center of the image. This image is showing the upper level outflow winds in those blue arrows...All outward at 20-25kts which is okay for sustaining life. Also shown is the official forecast track (in bold white)..the main player forecast model tracks (dynamical and consensus ensemble) - are to the right of the official forecast...and then other  single layer statistical model the left (west) of the official forecast. It's pretty plain to see that the official forecast is located in the middle of all of these plots.  
What I would like to throw in is that note that all of the plots to the left of the official track run lengthwise across Cuba. If the storm takes this track..the storm will be over land longer than otherwise if more to the right and will likely decay into a moisture laden, inverted trough in the mid-levels. This could come right across Florida as the trough over the U.S. mentioned above draws nearer on Saturday (and as high pressure builds in toward its Southeastern flank.

 On the other hand, if the storm takes the track to the right, the storm will be over land of even hillier terrain. At its current forward motion, it will be over that terrain ..or it's circulation will be..for 24-36 hours. Believe it will weaken significantly at this time...and we might be hearing about Depressed Emily by tonight...Storms need therapy too sometimes.  

Again, the forecast for Emily. The orange and yellows is dry air. It has DECREASED signficantly in the past 24 the storm is good from that perspective.  BUT..those winds barbs to the north of Cuba is low to mid level WIND SHEAR. Oops! If Emily goes quickly over the mountainous land of Haiti..she might arrive further north and into the winds shear before it can depart.

And lastly, this wind shear shown in the image above to the north of the storm has increased in the past 24 hours, whereas that around the storm has decreased. This likely is what allowed the storm to maintain some sanity (strength).

Image shows the increasing shear north of the storm.

So from what I can tell from the above. Emily might be forced more toward the WNW rather than to curve NW and N for the next 24-36. This takes the storm more toward Cuba. During which time, the trough over the SE U.S. will be digging further south into Georgia...very slowly though. As the storm weakens, it could eventually be drawn northward in the form of a weak mid-level alter self...and very confused. However, the storm could track a lot of moisture with it. (There is a trail of moisture on water vapor imagery extending SW from the storm).

“To hope means to be ready at every moment for that which is not yet born, and yet not become desperate if there is no birth in our lifetime.”

Thus, from the above Emily has only 2 options:

1. Be a willing patient and take the meds as prescribed. For which, it will move more rapidly northwest within 36 will weaken but might be able to strengthen only AFTER it begins to be picked up by the continental feature (the shear should also let up just a bit) which would probably be  relatively close to the forecast track. If that is the case, the enhanced chance for rains in Florida will not begin until late Sunday or Monday once the storm is NORTH of 28N Latitude..or roughly north (and east) of Central Florida. And, the storm poses no threat of any kind to Florida.

2. Emily remains a stubborn patient, heeding only the voices in its head and takes Easy Street  (or so it thinks), toward Cuba. But beware, easy street houses the thugs...On that course, especially if it accelerates, moisture and a mid-level circulation could work in toward the Everglades of South Florida late Saturday. With moisture advecting up to far North Florida as it is drawn northward by the ridge building in behind it from the SW Atlantic.  The trough to the north will add mainly a dynamic element for thunderstorms over North and Central Florida...with maybe more of a rainy situation for South Florida.

"Dying is a wild night and a new road.”

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