"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Isolated Heavy Downpours Interior Later Today

Early Evening Storms Align West of US1 as seen from Cocoa Beach Friday Evening
TODAY: Not a whole lot different in the evolution of how storms are forming today and where the 'peak of activity' might eventually end up occurring today. West coast activity , like yesterday, off to an early start. Expect this activity will send outflows toward the east and those will eventually meet with the east coast sea breeze near to just east of the north/south spine of the state (especially from Osceola County and north) late this afternoon.   In general the image below is a broad brush way of looking at it but not exclusively so. A few isolated large rainfall accumulations are possible due to very slow to non-existent actually storm motion over some interior locations. 

SUNDAY: A thin moisture slot aligned northeast so southwest is approaching Florida from the east. The main 'impacts' from this will be a small increase in rain chances from mostly Brevard County southward and then to the west as the day progresses. Coastal Brevard might see a shower or so in the area (for a change) sometime mid-late morning through early afternoon as well as all points south with better chances of thunder to the west and south of East Central later in the day.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A large tropical wave like feature mentioned in the blog post several days ago to approach 'early next week' is still on the way but is not much expected at this point to affect but the Southern Third of the state. It's still quite a way off however and as a result impacts in regard to increased rainfall chances and times of them are still too far off to worth deliberating over for today . But in any case, the Monday time frame looks to be a day hostile to rain as dry air is expected to precede that actual tropical air mass that is approaching the state (which is typical). 

Rain showers 'might' affect anywhere along the east coast as soon as Tuesday sometime from Central Brevard (mainly ) and south but again timing is an issue as well as extent of any chances of rainfall. The trend lately is to take the bulk of the moisture too far south to have any far-reaching benefits to the sensible weather of recent days for the far east side of Florida north of Ft Pierce up to Ormond Beach. In other words, so far it appears that rain chances remain slim pickins as far as 'normal July weather' is concerned . Considering July is about over it's now a matter if what part of the state (even many interior locations) will fare any better in the first week of August. 

So far long range guidance shows mainly only some tropical waves at best from time to time being the nearly sole source of anything other than widely scattered activity to only isolated on other days. GFS has been hinting that a frontal boundary will make it well south toward the state and act as a source of moisture convergence late next week, but if so that would be for areas north of I4 (if even that).

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