"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

"Cool Snap" Over - Near to Above Average' Temperatures to Prevail into December

Cape Canaveral, Tuesday Morning
TODAY: End of the 'colder mornings' transpired this morning as a gradual warm up begins this evening. As high pressure slides to the east (and north of Florida) a generally light easterly flow should be just strong enough to prevent temperatures this evening from falling nearly so much as the past several days, especially east of I-95 where dew-point temperatures will rise the most after dark.

 Lows Wednesday morning could be anywhere from 10-15F degrees warmer than this morning's low temperatures as a result. 

The coolest areas will be near Rte 27 toward I-4, the  'West Central Spine of the state' with lows in the upper 40Fs to lower-mid 50Fs but lows at the immediate east coast beaches will be closer to 65F -70F Wednesday morning, according to most guidance. Dew point temperature will also be in on the increase, so might be watching for some 'patch fog' in some locations tomorrow morning.

WEDNESDAY: Again, warmer all quads Wednesday morning and beyond. East Coast , especially east of US1,  probably won't see temperatures below 65F for quite some time to come (except possibly this weekend  - referenced further down in the post).

 Otherwise, Highs on Wednesday in the upper 70Fs to near 80F (esp. inland from the coast). Continued air mass modification of moisture mainly in the lower levels could result in 'patching of flat starto-cumulus cloud deck' between the 4500-6000 feet levels to move in on the coast, with the better chance of that occurring after mid-late morning.

THANKSGIVING: Low near 66F-70F east coast south of The Cape and in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs well-inland. Again, cloud cover could be an issue from time to time. The GFS shows 'very light trace amounts of rain possible under denser cloud deck portions', but question that. Even so, any 'precipitation' twere it to fall, will unlikely   even get the ground wet.

 Overall, temperatures around normal, with a easterly wind around 10-15mph at the beaches with partly to occasionally 'most cloudy' skies perhaps at times.

FRIDAY: Wind becomes more ESE-SE. Normal temperatures ranges prevail as a frontal boundary moves toward the West Florida Panhandle toward Central Florida for Saturday. HIghs in the upper 70Fs - 'near 80F' beaches, and a bit warmer west of I-95. Partly cloudy.

SATURDAY:  Front to be across Central Florida early in the day near Sunrise. Boundary to dry out the air quite a bit through the weekend, but temperatures behind this boundary are not foreseen to fall as low as they did with the previous front that went through Sunday morning of this week. 

Lows mainly in the 50Fs Central and South Florida and closer to 60F- 63F at the beaches both Saturday and Sunday with Highs in the lower-mid-70Fs with a north - NNE wind.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Wind to become again east to Southeast, even SSE on Tuesday? Much warmer possibly than we have seen in a while come Tuesday next week with highs in the lower to mid 80Fs with SSW-SW wind. 

Forecasts are for a 'pretty good chance of MUCH needed rain' with this next boundary, but that is highly questionable at time. Better chances appear  to be for North Florida with mostly 'cloud cover' associated with the front Central through South Florida.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY next week time frame: Front to swing through with rapid shift to NE wind behind it. Thus, not a 'huge' temperature drop with the front (at least as foreseen that far out in time). More like 50Fs for lows (though cooler mainly West of the spine of the state) for two days.

  Beyond that, the next front not slated until after December 1.

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Saturday, November 19, 2016

"Chwill Factor" Sunday - 'Very Cool' into Tuesday Mid Morning - Thanksgiving Outlook

Mid - Week Sunrise, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: After some early morning 'fog and low clouds' in some areas (but not all), sky should clear greatly to reveal a high in the upper 70Fs with a light NW wind going into the afternoon. For the most part, today will be the last of the 'near normal temperature' days until Wednesday but it will be a real beaut-of-a-day. Mainly clear to near clear sky with a continued NW wind with a temperature around 76F  in place for the Atlas V Launch scheduled for 5:42PM.  See link below:

Atlas V Weather Satellite Launch Information

TONIGHT: First 'big' cold frontal chill of the season statewide with a 'wintery bite' to pass down the state from early evening through 6AM followed by much drier air on the wings of breezy conditions for a time into at least mid-Sunday afternoon. Granted, by later in the season this will be considered 'the norm', but the first time might take a bit getting 'accustomed to'. Lows will be a good 10F lower than we've been seeing (if not more), and accompanied by wind as well will add to the 'chwill' factor.

SUNDAY: The front is slated to be directly across Central Florida in the 11PM - 2AM time frame, to be roughly across a Titusville to North Tampa Bay region at midnight tonight.

 Behind the front a NNW-N wind will pick up to the 18-25mph range with higher gusts  and falling temperatures.  Thus, Sunday morning will be the first morning since last winter that has a Wind-Chilly ('Chwilly') bite to it.  

Warmest morning temperature  will be found east of I-95 if not even US1 from Cape Canaveral south and around to the south end of Lake Okeechobee, with temperatures there in the mid 50Fs range (a bit warmer South Florida) with temperatures in the upper - mid 40Fs further west. Lowest readings near Route 27 west of Orlando shooting north through "The ONF' (Ocala National Forest region). Shooting for a 56F in Cocoa Beach (e.g.).

Highs Sunday ranging around the 67F mark across Central but cooler further north and more toward the lower  70Fs far South Central/South Florida.

MONDAY: This will possibly be the coldest morning yet still, though wind will have died off significantly, probably even by sunset Sunday evening. Wide spread mid-upper 40Fs with drainage flow and prime radiational cooling in place though upper 30Fs not out of the question will inland in low lying protected areas, though again the warmest areas might remain in the lower 50Fs range , mainly east of US1. 

High  on Monday again in the upper 60Fs mainly, but should be a very fine day with light wind.  

TUESDAY: Again, another very cool start to the day warming into the lower-mid 70Fs as wind by now will be from a light NE component, probably by early afternoon. Wind swinging more assuredly around to NE-E overnight Tuesday night will assure the immediate east coast will not fall down into the 50Fs range for quite some time to coming, beginning Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY: If you like what it was like on Thursday and/or Friday (for example) ...Wednesday will be similar with a better likelihood of some cloud cover commencing on the ever re-moistening atmosphere with easterly wind blowing across warmer ocean waters.

Full Moon of Fame Over Florida

THANKSGIVING: Chance of more cloud cover yet still but overall temperature around normal, with lows inland in the 50Fs and more toward mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches at sunrise. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs.  Appears a very weak frontal boundary might slide by late day into the evening but for the most part go unnoticed with little effect to the overall scheme of things other than a slight backing of the surface wind toward the NNW-N.

Canaveral Turkey

BEYOND: Though a few more 'weak frontal' boundaries might slide by in the next week most so far appear will go by generally unnoticed . Some minor shifts in wind direction will be about the only hint they passed by, which could mean some cooler mornings at the coast than other days. Otherwise, continued dry with 'seasonal' temperature ranges.

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