"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Breezy But Nice - "Un-Ideal Ida" In The Future

A classic East Central Florida fall day is in store today, characterized by breezy to sometimes gusty ENE winds and coolish afternoon temperatures. Another great day for laundry with no rain in this outlook any time soon. The strong and persistent onshore flow will continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as high pressure remains locked over the entire SE U.S. and broad low pressure remains over the Western Caribbean. The pressure gradient between these two areas will generate the easterly winds. Atmospheric moisture in the scheme of things is pretty meager, but enough lingers in the lowest levels to generate those stratocumulus clouds. Hard to believe that once you go about 10,000 ft up the wind is from the exact opposite direction at over 70mph...but that's indeed what we have. Today is pretty much a no-brainer, so I won't elaborate much. If you liked yesterday, you'll like today even more, as it seems there will be even less clouds. We may see the typical diurnal increase in clouds during the hours around sunset...and there could be periods of increased clouds throughout the day at just about any time, however it appears at this time that those periods will be few and far between, with the predominant condition to being widely scattered cloud conditions with sunshine the rule more than the exception. The high temperature today will struggle to reach 80 degrees (yesterday was about 81 in Canaveral for comparison's sake). In a nutshell, no appreciable change. And tomorrow will be pretty much the same...and Monday as well. But we still have 48 hours to see more precisely how Monday will pan out.

Now for Ida. This is what I love about having a blog. One can spout all their musings, knowing the thoughts will only be dispersed to a selected few (namely those who actually read it :-)!. The truth of the matter is that no one knows just exactly what the now Tropical Storm (again)...will do. Granted, we do hear the status/updated forecasts from the Hurricane Center and the media (who bases their info on the Hurricane Center), but they are in a position where the must state something affirmative without all the 'question marks' included. So what REALLY is the scoop?

As you can see by the graphic at the top...we see that the dynamical forecasts tracks don't really vary all that much...and the Hurricane Center has taken a nice average of all of them and laid it out among the masses. A lot depends on just how fast Ida makes a forward surge (if indeed it does at all). The slower the forward motion, the less likely it is to make it as far north as forecast. There are major timing issues involved between an upper level trough forecast to move across the central U.S. and Ida's forward motion and when or if they will meet up. Honestly, it's anyone's guess.

For east central Florida, at this point it doesn't matter much what the storm does. At this point it seems the worst we would see is increased clouds, continued gusty winds (from pressure gradients and not the storm itself)...and at worst some decent rain come late Tuesday-Thursday.

Ida may, in fact, become a Cat 1 hurricane by this time Sunday which is fun from a meteorological perspective. The stronger the storm gets and the faster it can make a move forward the closer to the U.S. Coast Ida will threaten. It would only behoove my credibility to make a definitive forecast on Ida's final outcome, because frankly and honestly to do so with high confidence is essentially impossible. So now you've heard it from the horses mouth, and perhaps what others in a more "public" position are not able to say. Instead, they must state their claim, and then end up with mud in their face (more than likely). Am I coping out? I don't think so...just being honest. At this point, it's sort of like a "what came first, the chicken or the egg" situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm aware of many various meteorlogical situations that could evolve due to currently existing or developing atmospheric parameters...but just which ones will develop more than others and time themselves accordingly in comparison with other what leaves the "So what will Ida do?" question up in the air.

The storm does bear watching though...just my little gem of wisdom to send on to whoever reads this; take it all with a grain of salt. Things will become more definitive as to what Ida will do come later Sunday into Monday. Maybe then I'd be more willing to lay the cards out.

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