"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, October 26, 2017

"Blue and 72 will be the Rule", Rain & Storms Saturday

Great Blue Heron  - Early Morning Surf Fishing

CURRENTLY ( 5AM) : With rather  cool morning temperatures already at hand pre-sunrise, Crestview was at 39F last I saw, Ocala in the upper 40Fs along with many other locations along and north of the latitude across the interior and panhandle regions that are in the mid-upper 40Fs. Some 40Fs could still be realized into Lake County. Elsewhere, mainly 50Fs are being noted, with the warmest area out over the water-surrounded barrier islands of Brevard and south to near Hutchinson Island zones and south. All conditions under 'severe clear' with PWAT (precipitable water ) values down to 0.4" or even less.

Wind over the interior is rather light to even calm, but as expected would be the case, mixing due to surrounding warm waters is resulting in gusts over 15 mph out over the Barrier's with PAFB, Cocoa Beach, reporting a 61F with wind gusts to 17 mph.

THIS AFTERNOON: As high pressure at the surface moves across North Florida expect wind near the beaches to decrease once full heating is realized into mid-afternoon under  a clear sky with high temperatures similar to yesterday's.  "Blue and 72 will be the Rule" m though it might get a bit warmer than 72F today, with highs more toward 74-77F.

TONIGHT: As the rather weak high pressure area continues to progress east and north, wind will come to be a light NE-ENE near the beaches late afternoon / early evening. Though it will weaken and come to be near calm inland overnight, watching to see if this wind persists in a light fashion mainly east of US1 from Brevard County southward. 


Given the above stated, the chance that morning will dawn with a very large temperature gradient between the A1A Corridor up and down the east coast from The Cape south through the Keys, with lows closer to lower to mid 60Fs (considering PAFB is only at 61F this morning similar to the Stuart reporting station), with temperatures rapidly dropping progressively the further toward the interior one goes. There could be as much as a 9-14F degree temperature difference between those walking on the beach from someone for example in the Orlando suburbs or near Lake Okeechobee Friday morning. Clear sky continues though some scrappy - flat topped stratcu (stratocumulus clouds) might become evident along the near shore waters. Warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70Fs. Wind becoming more east to east-southeast late day.

Chance we might see some low topped rain showers move into the coast by early -mid afternoon from the Cape , south.


Low pressure currently located over the far Southwestern Caribbean will be lifting north to eventually NNE -NE across West Central Cuba into Saturday evening  and over-night as a cold front approaches the Florida Panhandle. Increasing wind from the SSE and rain chances thus from South to North , first for the keys and eventually toward South Brevard late day along with cloud cover and precipitable water values from the current 0.4" to up to over 2.00" South Florida by Saturday afternoon.  

Apart from the low of tropical nature, more than one guidance model indicates a secondary, weak low could form toward South Central or even Central Florida as the front takes in some of the positive vorticity  associated with  the more southern feature. 

Larger rainfall totals are more likely from a line running from near Vero Beach to Punta Gorda and south, though the secondary low could end up making for some larger totals as far north as Melbourne or even Cape Canaveral (mainly east of Orlando area) . This 'secondary area' is in question though. 

Official 'outlets' are advertising mainly the first area exclusively, and the latest Canadian and GFS models would agree. The outlier NAM (which tends to over-cast beyond 18 hours or less) implies up to 4" possible as far north as the Cape.  Any rainfall  of heavier nature, if they do fall north of Vero Beach and especially Sebastian inlet, will likely not be to occur  until a   9PM - 4AM Sunday morning window of opportunity.

Along with the rainfall, the risk of strong wind gusts in isolated, or embedded activity could occur across parts of South Central and South Florida as shown in the graphic below. The Storm Prediction Center is not nearly so generous with the 'marginal severe risk zone', with eyes mainly on the Keys and eastern Dade/ Broward county region. This could change however, as the actual time draws nigh and models come into better agreement.


Otherwise, it's all for naught as this southern system and cold front all are swept east with much drier and cooler air to follow . Very brisk NW wind appears to be on the plate for all day Sunday, with gusts in the 24-30mph range possibly with highs in the lower 70Fs or so.


 Cool morning in store with decreasing wind. Temperature similar to this morning, but perhaps just a bit warmer. 


Another cool morning with light wind and a moderating temperature trend going into the afternoon and beyond.


Resume to normal temperatures with highs in lower 80Fs and lows in the lower-mid 60Fs but much closer to 70F or warmer at the beaches , especially Thursday through the weekend. 

Chance of marine showers coming ashore almost any time by Thursday time frame and beyond.

EVEN BEYOND:  Going into the star-gazing part of the forecast -  

Granted, talking well out to the beyond reliable time frame, but so far  long-range implications are no more blasts from the north for quite some time to come. The long range climate type model shows no temperatures as cool as what we've seen (and will see come Monday) with any cooling whatever associated with more of the 'back-door cold front' type  for a good 10-14 days.

 If one were to believe the CFSV2 (which is not advised post 6 Days) it won't be this cool again all the way out to nearly Thanksgiving. Never trust a fortune teller.

No comments: