"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 5, 2015

Low End Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon Interior & East Later

"Morning stroll"

TODAY: Much of what was in place yesterday remains the same in regard to placements of the surface ridge and winds aloft. Temperatures aloft are about the same however the sounding is more moist that yesterday at KSC and the convective temperature is only 89F; low level instability even at this hour is already much more unstable as well. 

Radar shows a line of showers and storms associated with the mid-level trough progressing east early this morning already and short range model shows it will continue to do so and end up aligned with the north/south down the peninsula line almost perfectly timed with when the sea breezes converge.
The cold air aloft, sea breeze mergers aid by this additional feature could result in much greater of coverage and more strong to even severe storms today mainly interior

Additional leeway, though, was added to in this post - given the overall nature of this set up that outflow and/or propagation could press additional storm formation to the east as the east coast sea breeze relaxes later to east of I-95 - therefore, would include the regions south of I4 and along to east of I95 to the beaches for possible strong storms after 7pm.  

Again, the regions around Port Charlotte give or take 30 miles north or south could also see a severe storm today or at least a strong one. Storms could produced hail up to 1.00" (or slightly more) but the strong category of gusts toward 50mph and dime sized hail seems to generally be what most would see in the 'worser' cases.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Storm coverage might decrease and bit and shift more and more toward the west half of the state leaving the east coast high and dry but will continue to watch the GFS has it flails around with the future-cast .  The GFS over night shifted gears to a long term trend of activity moving from the east to the west which is just the opposite of 48 hours ago.

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