"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 24, 2014

Warm up to Begin Into Monday - Good Rain Chance Tuesday/Wednesday (?)

"Sunwise Skies" (Cape Canaveral , 24 Jan 2014) 

TODAY/NIGHT: Frontal boundary  (again!) has slid though with a westerly feed aloft advecting some higher clouds in with northerly surface winds, but they seem to be breaking up well this 2pm hour with none on the way upstream for a while. Highs today mainly in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs and breezy especially near waterways with drier air below giving the air that whisper of winter feel. Otherwise, the nip-n-tuck tricky part for the next 72 hours will be timing of clouds in the mid-upper levels.  

TONIGHT/SATURDAY: It does not look like the immediate east coast (mainly east of US1 at least) will see a big temperature drop tonight due to north to NNE wind over night growing near calm  as the evening progresses to sunrise. A1A from the CAPE and south might remain in the lower or even some mid-50Fs tonight and much more even will be contingent on if clouds move in over night. Inland lows generally in the lower-mid 40Fs though some slivers of frost are always possible well inland. Otherwise, warmer on Saturday with a light westerly wind as the next front attempts to slide into the state with highs in the mid to even upper 60Fs  (or lower 70Fs far South Central). 

SUNDAY: Though a cool start to the day with a westerly land breeze in the morning for the coast, Sunday appears to be the warmest day we've had in a while now with highs into the lower-mid 70Fs, but again timing of cloud cover (or lack thereof) can't be promised one way or the other and that will to some extent determine just exactly how warm it will be on Sunday.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: The GFS is showing some signs of better news for those who would like the weather to warm up a bit. As of the last GFS run and the run before that one,  appears some 'height rises in the mid-upper levels" over the far Desert Southwest will buckle east, across, and through the Gulf and Florida, with the net effect of a not-so-certain next true cold frontal passage early/mid week next week. The last two GFS runs show in fact that next front to lay across Dead Central by Wednesday but with a hard time working south as northerly winds behind it are extremely shallow and westerly winds above that. Hence, we could be setting up for a fairly extensive 'over-running rain event' beginning Tuesday afternoon (far North Florida) working into Central overnight Tuesday or Wednesday and through the day. The GFS might be going over-board on the rainfall totals but even still, in association with  some form of that setup we should at least see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon and through the entire day Wednesday if not into Thursday, but at least it won't be cold with mainly 50Fs mornings and 60Fs afternoons and some 70Fs further south

" Liquid Gold "

LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: As of this afternoon, the GFS is showing extensive cloud cover and rain,  possibly heavy,  near or just south of I-4 eventually covering much of the state on Wednesday but that is a new one from previous runs. If this verifies which will be more clear in upcoming runs, rain chances are pretty much 80-100 percent on Wednesday. Guidance has been showing at least cloud cover though and spotty showers and maybe better rain chances near and north of I-4 fro several runs.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Again the GFS has shifted gears from a potentially very cold Friday/Saturday  to nothing special at all as the front clears with lows similar to this morning but with a fairly rapid transition to onshore winds meaning that NEXT Weekend and the following 2-4 days afterward remain much warmer than that of our recent days.

Latest GFS and a few runs before that has been showing the first 4-6 days of February to be running near or just above normal temperature wise with maybe even some very warm days stuck in there meaning highs in the mid-upper 70Fs if not maybe some inland lowers 80Fs after next weekend.

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