"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Thunderstorms Again Today through Week's End

Cocoa Beach Pier Tuesday Morning
TODAY-THURSDAY: So far we're on track since the previous post on Saturday which suspected higher rain chances for Monday and Tuesday (which was a big flip flop from previous outlooks).

Today is similar to yesterday with two key differences (at least).

1. Cape sounding came in with a CAP between 5000-10,000 feet with convective temperature in the lower 90Fs with a cap strength of 2 which is difficult to break. On the other hand..

2. The deepest moisture appears to be on the east side of the state.

What this means is that it is possible there will be, or could be, a later start of initiation along the far east side unlike yesterday where the big totals came in with the MLB Airport scoring big time. It might mean stronger wind gusts but then again on the flip side..hard for storms to get going. It'll be a matter of timing and locale..but will shoot from the hip and watch for the ever present chance of surprises.

One difference however, today, is that west coast activity has got an earlier start and it appears OFBs (Out-Flow Boundaries) might be on their way toward the Central north/south axis of the peninsula even as of 12:30pm.  Steering continues from west to east but is light and not strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. 

Outflow from western poofy showers might meet the east coast sea breeze somewhere near to west of I-95 in several hours from now so again highest rainfall totals for the day could come in somewhere in Western Brevard , Osceola, Volusia - South toward Martin County with another area over interior South Florida. Temperatures aloft are almost identical to yesterday.

WEDNESDAY: Again, a similar set up but inevitably variations in the theme will translate to potentially a big difference on where and when heaviest rain totals will add up. There are implications a mid level trough axis could slice NE to SW across and down the state which might add a convergence focus for tomorrow, however overall PWAT (Precipitable water) could lower if the GFS is correct. The NAM says, 'not so fast' and keeps the deep moisture in place. Tomorrow will be a new day so time will tell so best we can do is tell it like it 'T - I - S' when that time comes after today's atmospheric gala.

INTO THE WEEKEND; In general though the GFS brings a weak boundary at the surface through it's but barely a temporal wind shift that washes out the lowest level westerlies leaving the mid level winds from the west to WSW in place. Moisture goes up and down each day as temperatures aloft remain static. Overall, looks more like the 'summer that never' happened in the thunderstorm regime is having its day in court this week, possibly into the weekend.

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