"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Near Record Warmth Monday - Coldest Yet on Tuesday into Wednesday (?)

 Out to Sea on a Cloudy, Cool Fall Evening

TODAY: Warm and pleasant with a few more clouds than yesterday with light wind. High near 80F at the beaches and lower to some mid-80Fs interior areas, especially South Central and South Florida regions.  Increasing moisture later today at the lower levels advecting northward ahead of a cold front that the local press has been advertising for a few days now. (Go 'Noles!)

MONDAY: Near Record High Temperatures! Highs in the mid-80Fs many areas (depending on precedent cloud coverage) , with Vero Beach looking to be the one official reporting location most likely to break the threshold of 86F whereas other areas would have to surpass 88F or 89F degrees, but who knows though suspect some clouds might prevent  records to break at other locations. 

Increasing cumulus cloud coverage as heating ensues and/or as clouds break up from the overnight (if a low stratus deck forms overnight tonight in 'the warm sector' as appears could be the case early in the day) as winds pick up from the SW late morning into the mid-afternoon hours  with the cold front  across the panhandle region.

General  GFS Surface Plot for  1pm Monday afternoon with highs in the 80Fs over Florida
  Later Monday  afternoon through mid Evening:   Probably a bit of a weak pre-frontal trough could set off some thunderstorms with gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center is out-looking for a severe potential over North Florida  and into the Big Bend where winds aloft will be strongest. The problem there will be very little low level instability. As is the case quite often, the best instability will be over Central and South Florida but the best winds will be over North Florida. And, as is often the case, the stronger winds could pull off to the east and north before  the front gets close enough to generate  "would be" strong storms further south where the best instability is located; however, there still remains a chance of stronger storms from near and north of a Bradenton to Sebastian Inlet line toward I-4, with the better overall threat along and north of I-4 ; especially along the immediate west coast and again toward the immediate East Coast from Daytona to Melbourne more specifically from 4:30pm through around 9pm. Outside of any storm threat there still looks to be a respectable chance of rain (though rainfall totals do not appear to be over 1/2 -3/4' (inches) tops and mostly much less than 1/2") ...the chance of rain Central will exist well past midnight if not for only significant cloud cover.

TUESDAY: The models continue to disagree on exactly how quickly (or slowly) it will take for the front to cross "Dead Central" as a point of reference, with the GFS much faster than the NAM by a good 6-8 hours at least (see next image). 

If the GFS is correct, the front will stretch across "The Dividing Line" (of the peninsula) around 1AM but if the NAM is correct it could be as late as 7-8AM or near the time of sunrise.

Either way, TUESDAY, appears could end up being the Coldest Overall Day we've had yet this season sum total from sunrise to sunset from a Melbourne to Bradenton line and north. Even the NAM though has been showing a strange temperature discontinuity in the afternoon with Sough Florida being actually cooler than further north in parts of Central, perhaps because of denser cloud coverage as cold air advection sets in..who knows.  Either way, it could be as much as 20F - 25F degrees colder on Tuesday than on Monday (!) 

WEDNESDAY: Regardless of what the press has been advertising in regard to the cold to come, the immediate east coast from Canaveral and South (along the A1A strip) MIGHT NOT get as cold as it was a week or so ago back at the beginning of November, though from  Orlando and points west and north it well could get down into the  mid 30Fs. That would be because the wind becomes more North to North-Northeast overnight and those locations closer to the ocean will be spared the brunt of the worst of this brief chill down this go around. That is, under the assumption that the wind does take that turn. The GFS and NAM both agree on this scenario though, and have been showing it to be the case for a solid two days and 8 model runs. An example might be that while temperatures in the NW Side of Orlando into Lake County are near 36F - 38F, the temperature at Patrick AFB as a point of reference might be much closer to the 49- 52F line.

BEYOND: Slightly warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs to near 70F (a bit warmer south Florida) or about 6-9 degrees warmer than Tuesday afternoon and less windy as well...but the real return to overall 'normal' will be slow to come, likely Friday and into the weekend when the next chance of showers could come by Sunday early. Mornings will again follow the trend of the season so far  in regard to the warmest air residing along and east of the A1A Strip all the way into Saturday morning at least with lows in the 60Fs by Friday morning , but much cooler inland.

The next front is scheduled as would be the norm this time of year in about 6 1/2 - 8 days which puts the next  frontal passage just before Thanksgiving. Models have varied on the exact date and that front's affects though, so will avoid going into any details given the limited time constraints of guidance accuracy. in the peak of winter the fronts  can come as often as ever 5 days (and sometimes even more frequently). 

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