"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Warm One Last Day, The A "Week of Cool Returns"

Full "Latitudinal" Length Cold Front Continues to Sweep Across the United States this morning positioned along or near the Mississippi River. High pressure is building eastward from Texas but also from the Northern Rockies behind that boundary. Florida will mostly be effected by the circulation from Texas, and not so much from the "Far North"

TODAY: As mentioned in previous blogger posts, a long awaited frontal boundary who's timing was questionable is approaching Florida. Guidance has narrowed it down to around a 4 AM Central Florida Dividing Line time frame (pictured above), per the GFS which was correct all along  despite what the ECMWF and NAM guidance depicted. Prior to Frontal Passage (fropa), SSW-W winds today and highs right along A1A near 80F or upper 70Fs and warmer inland. Orlando tied a record high of 85F degrees yesterday dating as far back as 1917  for informational purposes, but not foreseeing (so far) much warmer if even that warm today. Suspect that the more southerly wind component will keep the outer barrier islands especially a tad cooler than was previously thought had the winds been more westerly and directly off land in that area.

Otherwise, very little if any rain is expected with the boundary; rain chances enter Central Florida around 2AM in more Northern areas and clear Exact Central by sunrise shifting south with time.
Clearing behind the boundary 'might' be a little slow from South Central to South Florida on Thursday  but from around Central Brevard toward Sarasota Line and north better clearing to scattered clouds working toward 'clear' could be experienced by noon time (if not a bit sooner). The next concern is 'how cold' will it get?

Expected frontal Position by Thursday night. NOTE that high pressure behind the boundary will be building across the Gulf RATHER THAN down from the north. This will prevent Florida from experiencing truly cold temperatures once again, since the air mass circulating into the state will be more of a 'modified continental air mass' rather than a 'direct shot from the North Pole" (as can occur some years)

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Expect daytime highs on Thursday not to rise much above the temperature right after 'fropa',  toward the lower to mid 60Fs Central and north. Overnight lows Thursday night into the 40Fs range, maybe some upper 30Fs far NW Central near Ocala, with the warmest from Canaveral and South along A1A seeing 47-53F range.

BEYOND: Two more fronts are expected to skirt by the state with re-enforcing high pressure from the west to west northwest. The next front can already be seen in the image above. We will not even know it when those fronts go by. The only effect will be that they will keep the winds backed to the NNW-N (thus, no modifying ocean wind) for quite some time. Another front is expected to follow due course early Sunday ..with similar results.

In abbreviated form, it could be 'typically cool' through next Wednesday, with coldest mornings just west of or partly into the Barrier Islands toward SW Florida into the Punta Gorda area. Other than today and tonight (when it could remain quite breezy)  after Thursday, winds will be a non-issue for the most part during this entire time frame, and high clouds are not seen so far to be a big issue either. Sum total, cool with some very pleasant days ahead but quite dry, especially north interior sections. No rain is foreseen as well until at least around mid-February. Overall, things look pretty much 'normal' for this time of year with highs in the 60Fs into brief shots of low 70Fs and lows generally in the 40Fs except at the beaches from Canaveral and South through the Keys, and by beaches this means A1A and east toward South Florida where US1 acts as a good substitute. For example, official observation stations at Ft Pierce and Vero often come in cooler to much cooler than Patrick Air Force Base further north since those observation stations are further from the beaches. For blogger purposes, Inland is considered 1/2- 1 mile or more west of the immediate sand dunes as opposed to TV Stations which might considered the beaches anywhere east of I-95.

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