"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

"Winter's Chill Is Comin' To Town' - Saturday and Beyond

December 5  2017   Cocoa Beach , Florida  Morning
Will leave this post short for today  but to sound the 'alarm' for an upcoming cold spell  accompanied by gusty wind chill readings - preceded by a period of rain during the weekend.

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much change from the latest few days. A few clouds off and on, even a light ,  isolated shower perhaps. Temperatures running above average with lows near the beaches in the upper 60Fs to near 70F and afternoon highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs (interior).

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary to work south from North Florida into Central Florida to near I-4. Guidance is a bit shaky on exactly how far south it will get but appears it will reach South Central Florida by Thursday morning with a frontal passage across Central Direct close to day break. The boundary is extremely shallow; nonetheless, there will be wind shift and cooler air behind the boundary likely accompanied by increased cloud cover. 

 Slight chance of showers but the bigger story north of the boundary will be about a 8-10F temperature decrease for afternoon highs (Central/North). Sharp temperature gradient between the region north to south of boundary where highs will remain near 80F.

FRIDAY: Boundary continues to be located in the same general area as a mid-level 'impulse' rides along in the westerlies just above the deck to ride over the it  during the day and into the evening. So far, guidance advertises best rain chances North of I-4 during the day light hours. 

The Canadian Model advertised this to occur yesterday and the GFS has joined in to the prognosis. Both now showing that the better chance of larger rainfall totals perhaps even accompanied by elevated thunder appears will occur (as of now at least) across Central and South Central Florida after sunset Friday evening through the night into very early Saturday.

If the scenario paints out as shown , it will be rare bird to be getting thunder, for the temperatures during all of this 'rain' (assuming this occurs) will only be in the lower-mid 50Fs. GFS shows rainfall totals up to 1.50" (if not more) in the midst of all that. The impetus is very high bulk and speed shear through the mid-upper levels, over 60Kts at places accompanied by very cold air aloft.

Be thankful it won't be warm and unstable at the surface at the same time! Because if it were, this would be a 'big time' severe weather out-break set up; but alas, t'will be very very cool at the surface. If this were the Plains, maybe we'd be talking a hail chance, but not sure such a thing has ever happened like that in Florida before (cold weather, heavy rain, and 'hail'..that is).

SATURDAY- BEYOND: The front clears on Saturday followed by Gusty NW - NNW winds with highs perhaps only in the mid-upper 50Fs. Thus, the afternoon HIGHS will be nearly 10-15F degrees colder than our morning LOWS have been.  

SUNDAY MORNING looks also to be quite cool though it might warm into the lower-mid 60Fs in the afternoon, as wind decreases. Regardless, the worst is yet to come.

Beyond this time prepare for forecasts (such as on TV) to bounce around quite a bit, and to be hearing about the 'Polar Vortex' as it currently appears that area of low pressure is planning on setting camp up over the Northeastern Great Lakes region for quite some time. Chances are TV watchers are already hearing about it.

The end-result for Florida will be a 'difficult - to - time' succession of 'dry' frontal boundaries..boom boom boom. One after the other. 

I can count at least two more to follow during the week toward the following weekend. And be advised, 'IF" the current outlook stands, it gets colder before it gets warmer. 

Much cooler. Freezing so far is not foreseen for Central and South. but Far North Central Interior might see freezing temps come mid-late week after the second or third front pulls through, accompanied again by more gusty winds.

Temperatures along the immediate coast mid-late week 'might' be able to get into the mid 40Fs with gusty winds to-boot. But we'll see. There's time for guidance to shift around yet still, even significantly so.

In short, after early this coming Thursday things start to go down hill..then there is a good rain chance as it stands now at least sometime between mid-day Friday (North) through early Saturday morning.(Central/South Central)..and from there on will be time to  'Shift  intto Winter-Gear '.

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