"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Increasing Cloud Cover / Shower Risk Central Today - Risk of Strong Storms Tuesday

On This Day , Last Year
There is a Risk that there will be thunderstorms, some potentially strong or even severe (?) come Tuesday, then again more rain-thunder chances on Thanksgiving Day, meanwhile:

TODAY: A cold front currently located near Ormond Beach stretching WSW toward Cedar Key along the west coast is slowly working south early this afternoon. Last hour an area near the Villages was reporting 'heavy rain'. In general  most areas will not see all that much today in rainfall if any, but not everyone will remain completely dry.

Cloud cover associated with the cold front is clearly discernible in satellite animation working south, now already having entered parts of North Central Florida as it works into Central from noon through mid-afternoon.

The front itself is still a way back and won't like make it to "Central Direct ' until near sunset. Wind immediately behind the boundary shifts to northerly with much cooler air that won't   be realized from Central Direct and south until after sunset southward toward midnight (far South Central/South Florida).

OVERNIGHT-MONDAY: Wind overnight will become NNE-NE heading toward sunrise. Areas at  the 'immediate' coast south of I-4, mainly Brevard and South will escape the brunt of the coolest of air associated with the front, likely not falling below the lower 60Fs whereas inland temps will range in the lower to mid-50Fs with the coolest air near Lake County and North where 40Fs will be realized. 

MONDAY: Wind during the day veers to ENE and almost east by day's end. Daytime highs will be similar to the past several days, in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Pattern shift quickly takes hold as  a Strong Upper Level Jet dive-bombs from Canada south to East Texas and into the far Western Gulf then begins to curve toward the NE, poised toward Florida. In the mid-levels the WSW Flow Aloft will carry some mid-level 'impulses' of energy (vorticity) in the steadily increasing WSW Flow aloft while surface wind remains E-ESE. 

Bulk shear of up to 50Kts,  500mb temperatures running a cold -12- -14C and 700MB running around 0C,  and surface based instability of up to 1000 J2/K2 (mainly south of I4) combined could result in some thunderstorms and other areas of heavy rainfall south of I-10. So far the 'best risk' of stronger storms (if any) appears to be near the Tampa Bay area toward North Brevard southward to North of Lake Okeechobee. beginning late morning Tuesday with the risk running into late afternoon if not even mid-evening..with the better risk along the West Central Coast - though anyone could be game at various locations and varying times. 

Soundings being forecast though, indicate there could be extensive upper level cloud cover which would greatly mitigate the severe threat, though not to say there might be some 'embedded' activity in all that cloud cover that could bear watching.

WEDNESDAY: As of now, looks like a break in the action as the Jet stream continues it race toward Florida. Timing is of great issue at this point however, so nothing is certain in regard to if it will or will not rain much of anywhere this day. For now will hold peace and watch once again for a more active Thanksgiving Thursday.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain , rain showers, or even thunderstorms while bulk shear aloft continues and cold upper level temperatures at 500mb easily below -10C and even 700MB running quite cold as well. It's too soon to say if there will again be a risk of severe or strong storms on Thursday, though for now suspect the bigger 'risk' day might well be Tuesday. 

Not a complete wash out for everyone, but for now not expecting to see much sun this day if any. Cold front to eventually make way and through the state Thursday evening.

FRIDAY-BEYOND: The outcome overall , when all is said and done, will be a complete shift of recent days in the wind fields at the surface. Instead of easterly winds we will be experiencing some refreshing westerlies . 

Temperatures do not look to be anything but climatically normal for this time of year with lows in the 50Fs and highs in the 70Fs.

GREAT BEYOND: Not much of a change in the longer run as winds eventually swing around to easterly well out in time and eventually more southerly. Granted , this is still a long way off, but the GFS is indicating that the last day or two of November into the First Week of December could see above normal temperatures with highs in the 80Fs; however,  previous model runs have shown just the reversal of such fortune, with much colder temperatures.

Will be interesting to see the outcome. The Climate CFSV2 model has been showing 'above to  near normal temperatures other than for a few brief non-consequential ,   cool downs well into mid-December; 'maybe' even well above normal the past few runs going into December (for what it's worth). Though do note, some runs (like the GFS) have been showing just the opposite.

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