"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, January 2, 2017

Chance of Mainly Interior Thunder , Convective Type Showers Possible at Beaches

Late Last Week, Cocoa Beach Surfing
TODAY: As noted in previous past last Thursday, it appeared there might be the potential for 'thunder on Monday'. Consistency is everything, and despite some ups and downs on the prognosis the signal is coming yet still as of this morning for that chance as short range guidance 'suddenly' just jumped on board, so will hoist the flag for a chance of thunder mainly from the NW Corner of Lake Okeechobee North and East to Volusia County with a bulls eye running close to or just east of the Orlando Metro or toward Sanford, to Northern  Osceola County though not exclusively.

The answer will be known later in the afternoon depending upon how much of a direct onshore component the east coast sea breeze attains. The less from the east and more from the south it is, the closer toward I-95 is the thunderstorm chance. Temperatures aloft are cold and the best divergence aloft  (for evacuation of updrafts) has been showing up to occur from Brevard South toward Vero Beach, Therefore, will watch interior Osceola County mostly then north-northeastward with time. Activity could press to the beaches (possibly after dark)..but whether it will be thunder or not is a tough call as we will have lost heating of the day by then (assuming any can form).

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far, today appears to be the better rain chance day. These days will be more characterized with continued warm to warmer as SW winds at the surface take hold. Chance of showers is greatly reduced but still watching Tuesday afternoon for the east coast (though nothing is showing up in guidance for that day). Regardless, well above 'normal' temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.

LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary glides down to Central or South Central and begins to undergo frontolysis  (or dissipation of identity). Regardless, cooler air will be hence coming behind the boundary with  reinforcements toward Friday or Saturday. For now, will leave well enough alone and saw a cooler period in store for these days with light winds with some clouds.

Overall, the general trend is that  it will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday which  appears to be the end of it for quite some time.

The period of the 7th and 8th might be much cooler yet more (akin to recent days), and after that there is a big divergence in consensus from model run to model run for the GFS.

Paddle Boarder Greets the Morning

NOTE: We are entering the coldest time of year now from the first week of January into the last week of the month, with cold times also possible later. Climatologically though, this is the coldest month overall baring unusual circumstances which is always possible.

We will also be entering a period after this week into March of the potential for severe weather (aka, tornadoes) if the right ingredients can pull together. Every year is different, and at time there have been hints in the longer range guidance that something might make an attempt, but so far nothing concrete has yet been shown for a severe weather event, even in the long range guess range.

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