"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 6, 2017

Increase Clouds, Rain. Storm Chances : Brrr-acious Saturday Thru Monday Morning

The "Observation" Tower Reflects the Calm Nature of Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Gorgeous start to the day but changes   in the making . are on the way to the Northern and Central Peninsula as we speak / read. A simple glance at radar and satellite imagery reveals that things are not quite what they might seem to be and will be on the down-swing going into this evening. 

A Cold front has already cut through the far Western Panhandle with grievous low level cloud cover and rain (even some sleet) occurring behind the boundary back in the cold air.  

The boundary will progress to a line per the GFS/and 4KM-NAM models to near South Tampa Bay to near Canaveral by around 1:30PM Saturday. (Noting that the North American Model (NAM) is considerably slower with the surface boundary's passage and has been consistently so in the past several runs, but for now will discount it).  

Meanwhile, continued warmer than 'normal' today ahead of the boundary with SW wind and highs in the lower 80Fs mainly south of and near I-4 . Increasing cloud cover with some showers and possibly thunder storms of strong to near severe levels mainly from near Cedar Key south toward Brooksville with a secondary area being watched for the near Sarasota toward Punta Gorda region  much later today toward evening (though that is a very low threshold risk for them being watched for at time of writing). 

 Otherwise, am expecting there is a chance of a 
"No Watch -but Warnings Possible" situation  

No Watch issuance for severe as coverage looks like it would be too isolated and factors are not lining up for all that much of a likelihood as well despite that there are several factors at play for severe  - they just are not adding up together to occur all at the same time.  

Either way, chance of it becoming breezier after dark with the first hints of rain fall not to occur Central (Interior) and Eastern Coastal areas until well after dark. Anytime after the 10PM time from for isolated activity well ahead of the boundary across all of Central but there is a chance nothing will occur in that time frame. 

The better chances more directly related to the front after midnight going into the sunrise time frame for  areas north of Ft Pierce to Punta Gorda line.

Cloud cover  and light to a few spots of moderate rain with a chance of embedded shear induced rotation where pockets of vertical uplift is concentrated could result in some lightning  and 'small' (non-severe) sized hail , with the chance of stronger wind gusts in (and in the vicinity of) even heavier isolated rain storms .

 Any activity beyond 'light rain' (if even) will be very isolated and quite brief in the 'in and outta here' fashion. At time not expecting that a Weather Watch will be issued for the upcoming situation at hand, unless conditions shift and one would be justifiably warranted.


Saturday Afternoon: Assuming the GFS guidance which has held steady for days is reasonably accurate and holds intact, the front will pass through Central Florida from North to South from around 10:30AM (Northern parts)  to 3:30PM (Southern Parts) followed by a deliberate and noticeable shift in wind direction with much colder temperatures chasing down behind it eager to swift in for the kill.

Highest temperatures of the day will occur Saturday across all of North Central and Central prior to 1PM as a result (contingent upon the actual time the front passes through any given location).

Chances for  small craft advisories willlikely  be issued with winds gusts to near 33+ MPH possible with temperatures falling into the mid-upper 50Fs and yet colder still mainly west of I-95 / North of I-4 into the evening and to Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest readings to occur from near Brooksville to Ocala across to Ormond Beach and north with below freezing readings for over six hours possible all across the Panhandle and down toward the Ocala National Forest regions with 'cold' WCI (wind chill index) readings.

Secondary cold area from near Punta Gorda  northeast to across western parts of the Orlando area and northeastward toward Central Volusia County though probably above freezing of if any freezing, for a very short period of time.

Outside of those regions incrementally warmer the further east and south one goes.

Coastal Brevard and Southward might not get below 50F during the entire event, outside of some Upper 40S   North or Central Brevard  along the coast. West of I-95 or US1, different story. 

Brrracious! with the wind.  

ALL Day Sunday will be characterized with a NNW wind becoming more northerly with time with highs never cracking the big "6-0 F " .

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Continued cold but again, northerly to becoming more  NNE wind with time should prevent the immediate Coast from falling below 50F once again. Wind becomes more NNE-NE to even ENE by day's end Monday and slowly decreases. So far, guidance implies increasing low level cloudiness as the wind veers to more easterly as well, meaning increasing low level pancake stratocumulus clouds with only a few cloud breaks possibly all day Monday and if it were possible some light patches of rain spits straight through to Tuesday morning and possibly the same that day as well.

VAST IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN on TUESDAY AFTERNOON (?) from east to west, with warming and wind shifting to more southerly by Wednesday with temperatures returning to normal and even a bit above  " 'so called' 'Normal'" by Thursday.

BEYOND: Other than perhaps a weak boundary pressing through, the GFS has been showing that this upcoming colder , blustery weather will not be followed by a repeat performance any time soon. 

At least not with in the next 10 days to follow. 

At ease,  soldiers .

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