"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 30, 2009

We Are Squeezing Water Out of a Rock

(current radar depiction, forecast precip for this time, forecasted moisture at 850mb, and 700mb high center of us)

As I type today's entry it is actually 'raining' if you can call it that. The above images show the actual radar depiction, the RUC model's forecasted precipitation areas for this time, the 850mb moisture forecast, and the 700mb high pressure center placement. Based on the accuracy of the current situation of such features at this time, today's forecast is based on the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) for today's short term outlook.

...and given all of the above, it looks like we could see more of the same today in a VERY widely scattered fashion, mostly from coastal Central Brevard up toward Ocala. Don't think it will be all that warm today with likely increased cloud coverage and light onshore flow (coming in off the ocean). Sweet! Nothing exciting, but sure beats the cloudless sky and glaring sunshine we had yesterday. As you can see by the 700mb high pressure placement, we are indeed forecasted to be wearing the high pressure center (per yesterday's "Eye of the High" forecast).

So how can we be getting rain?

The surface high pressure is located well to the north along the mid-Atlantic coast. The clockwise flow around that feature is shoving Atlantic moisture in underneath the 700 mb high pressure center which is almost trapping the moisture to the surface and inducing low topped convection.

Due to the high's presence, I do not believe that showers will be able to develop vertical extent worthy of thunder. Only exception might be near Ocala later in the day where there could be some extra low level upward forcing due to sea breeze convergences, however that possibility is yet even below the low end on the scale.

Still looking to see a more pronounced change late in the weekend into very early next week just in time for daylight savings time to end. The change will be gradual and of little consequence other than to bring temperatures back down to normal values.

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