"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Strong - Severe Storms 'Might Be Possible' Monday North Half of State

Happy Blooms on the First Spring Morning of 2015

SUNDAY: Subtle changes at first in store Saturday Night (tonight) through Sunday as broad low pressure moves in across the Deep South States with two low pressure areas to form : one off the coast of North Georgia to South Carolina and the other near the Florida Panhandle at the low levels all within a much broader low pressure area with a 'cold front' joining these two lows.

The more southern low is forecast to weaken and drift East South East into Central Florida by mid-afternoon on Monday.

Sunday will see more westerly type winds most of the day (as opposed to today),  inhibiting the sea breeze but for along the immediate coast south of I-4 in general. Sunday looks much like last Sunday was in general with warmest temperatures west of the Banana River (more so west of US 1). A sea breeze convergence boundary should set up late in the day near I-95 but at this point storms are not expected though some showers might form from Brevard County and north close to the coast late in the day (or perhaps merely an increase in cloud cover only later in the day).

The 90th "Anniversary" of the Infamous Tri-State Tornado Was Recognized Earlier This Week

MONDAY: This is the big day in question. GFS Guidance (Global Forecast System) shows a chance  of mainly showers with perhaps thunder for the North Half of the State whereas the NAM (North American Model) indicates much greater low level instability and as a result, a greater storm chance. 

In both cases, the left exit  region of a 120 kt jet streak will be crossing across the North Half of the state during 'prime time' with very cold air aloft. Down play would be lack of low level convergence along the frontal boundary as winds are mainly parallel to the front but there is some turning going on in the mid-levels (though weak). Given the factors involved would watch for some strong storms though another down play might be antecedent cloud cover which would leave the atmosphere more stable and greatly reduce any strong/severe threat despite the presence of very strong winds and cold air aloft.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Cooler weather for a day or so most notably in the mornings, but overall a day or two of normal readings for this time of year with a return to above temperatures mid-late week. (Lately, the temperatures have been much above normal for this time of year.)

GREATER BEYOND: The GFS is introducing another strong storm chance next Monday - March 30th, but again, that is a new client on the TBD list for monitoring purposes only at this stage -  chances are that it will 'go away' with later model runs.

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