"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Chantings Over Chantel and Other sub-Realities

Complicated "Guess-Cast" Today,
Shoot From the Hip Wager for this post

TODAY: Remains of the TUTT Low (see previous post) are near South Florida with an axis extending from it toward East Central. The latest ECMWF (European Model) shows a mid level vort max at 850mb to cross up the East Coast to Central Florida today that no other model is showing. Interestingly, that matches nicely with what radar and satellite imagery (above) also shows. The short term High Resolution Model seems to have picked up on it also as does the RAP, but in both cases they show this disturbed area mainly remaining offshore and weakening significantly by early afternoon, with the High Rez (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) eventually bringing it in near the Cape Kennedy area toward sunset as a sprinkle of rain. With that said:

Increased rain and thunderstorm chances in orange areas (above) with some stronger activity possible toward the west coast as well as the Panhandle area which is under a completely different weather regime (as has been much the case this entire month). Winds becoming more SE-SSE as opposed to the brief period of NE winds yesterday which was expected might occur as winds were to back ahead of the TUTT low. Rain could persist today until late evening possibly depending on how fast the transition to SW Flow in  mid levels occurs. In any case, today looks like for many folks today will be quite a bit different than recent days, particularly interior and west side of the state although nothing in the models is in close agreement. There's is a chance the east coast somewhere might see a 'surprise' rain late tonight.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The TUTT low and circulation will diminish but a mid-level trough might exist just across the Panhandle region sandwiching Central and South Florida in a SW Flow aloft (beginning as soon as around 10pm tonight ) post TUTT and pre-remnant Chantal. This would set the stage for better sea breeze convergences and steering toward the east coast at about 10-12 mph.

The weather going into the weekend or early next week is highly contingent on the eventual track of Chantal or remnant thereof, mainly in regard to moisture advection related to the system. The latest Hurricane Center track follows close to yesterday's (and the day before) track shown by the GFS.

Above was yesterday's track of a small low ("Chantal")  with very little wind to speak of, with all of the rain in that example east of Florida on the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.
 Here is the latest official 'track' from the Hurricane Center...

Conservative plotting a forecast track for now
weakening Chantal which looks more like a depression if even that
"CHANTAL" - At this point (today), model consensus is further to the west of the official track, taking the 'storm' or what remains of it up the Florida peninsula, although other tracks continue it well to the west and a few well to the east. The point is that even if the storm gets north of Cuba and strengthens somewhat, it remains a minimal reality at least at this point. If the storm does go east of the state, we might actually dry out for a period. the better chances of rain are if it goes up the center or west side of the peninsula as at least a low level vorticity max. The models are divided as to whether it will even be a closed low let alone a 'depression'...thus, the weekend outlook is sketchy at best...leaving much 'Chanting about Chantal' and not much more than conjecture making for media attention.

Image shows "Chantal' of non descript-circulation moving generally west , and TUTT low
near the KEYS with a trough extending NE from it. That TROUGH is expected to pass over the state today from east to west  and put Florida in more of a SW Flow after its passage. In Turn, this "should/could"  increase thunderstorm chances Thursday- Saturday

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