TODAY: Boundary that was in place yesterday has moved little and never did fully wash out. As a result, rain chances today will be in close to the same places (in general) as yesterday with little change in the upper level pattern other than some slightly stronger winds aloft.
However, as was the case yesterday as well, though a disturbance in the upper levels is pointed out (vorticity) by the models to approach North Central later today, it is accompanied by extensive cloud cover. Cloud cover does not bode well for surface based instability which would require a good degree of sunshine for heating in the low levels (to form thunderstorms). Regardless, based on satellite imagery trends will call for 'worst case' scenario (perhaps) and go with the graphic below indicating a potentially strong storm or two later today toward the east coast mainly if and only if the east coast sea breeze gets a boost. As of noon there is little sea breeze to speak of but it could pick up in the next two hours. Ample moisture and instability already in place means as soon as it even hints at picking up some showers could go up just west of the coast or near it.
Again, like the past two days, localized urban flooding might become an issue for those areas that have already received several inches and do not drain off very well...such as Osceola or parts of Orange or Seminole Counties.
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| The chance for Red Zone Storms (Stronger) is 'Conditional" and really not very likely without some good sunshine. The best region for that would be more like Southeast Florida |
WEEKEND -: Slightly better chance of showers or a storm or two nearer the East Coast on Saturday than previous models indicated. Reason being the short-wave ridge isn't showing to have as much of a sedating influence (sinking air) as was surmised yesterday with as much as buckle in the flow, but that could always change. Overall, still a chance of something happening near the east coast mainly on Saturday until later model runs suggest otherwise.
THROUGH - MAYBE TUESDAY (?): Wild card Stud. Could be some strong storms any of these days but as the last few days have indicated, it's a play it day by day situation since disturbances aloft are impossible to time this far out and there are too many other mitigating factors involved such us precedent cloud cover which might be in place any of these days playing the switch bait.
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| "Wild Card Stud" ~ Whoever Has the Bait Gets the Storm |
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