"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Very Warm , Isolated Robust Storms Moving Offshore East Coast "Possible"

"Walking on Sunshine" ~  (Until later today)

TODAY: Very warm day if cloud cover from the Gulf holds off. Like the past several days timing is everything, and amazingly every morning for three days there has been activity in the Northern Gulf associated with a disturbance near or south of Pensacola rolling east. Cloud cover from them has been squelching afternoon storm activity even though we still have had some storms regardless. Today looks no different but there are some minor differences , mainly in the timing.

Chance higher cloud cover will not be as much as a negating factor today, and that is the crux or premise upon which this 'worst case' or stormiest scenario is painted upon. Outside of this assumption, conditions could end up being much more calm than noted in the graphic (see text) and temperatures this afternoon would also not be as warm (if the high clouds stream in prior to 2-4pm). The RAP and the NAM though are showing lower 90Fs today in the interior. Sea breezes shouldn't make it that far inland today so it will be the storm rolling off the coast in the presence of moderate to strong CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and lower EHI (energy helicity  along the coast due to sea breeze) that would the heads up (note beach goers), particularly if they hold off until late as the west coast sea breeze works across. 

Storms or rain showers (even small ones) can stabilize the area they occur and any where up to 20 miles or more around them after they collapse and send out some rain cooled air. If this occurs earlier in the day (before 2-3pm), the chance of late day storm in or near that location can be greatly diminished. It'll all come down to timing 
plus .....

** any well developed storm moving off   the Central east coast could become very strong to even severe if timing is just right. There might be some lingering rain or recompiling storms over Central to South Central after dark . Strong storms possible panhandle region late with early activity there as well

BEYOND: Sunday looks to be another day of rain chances also some potentially strong but the situation will be entirely different synoptically speaking as Jet Stream winds from the Southern Branch Jet around the base of an upper level trough which is moving east toward the state (though north of it) will be sweeping over head. Today looks more to be a case of isolated by possibly strong to very strong storms..tomorrow more wide spread but strength will be determined by precedent cloud cover; if too much clouds, might only be rain despite the presence of stronger winds aloft.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Last day of rain chances will be either Monday or Tuesday before a break of 2 -3 days. Next weekend sometime into next Monday could be very active but way too far out in time for other than a passing glance.


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