"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 15, 2013

Clearing Central - Big Cold Front Late Saturday with Gusty Chills

TODAY: Gradual clearing and mostly cloudy today South as shown in this image.
Highs in the lower 70Fs south and mid 60Fs to lower 60Fs Central and North. 

TODAY:  In the next image (below) we'll see that a surface front is well south toward the Keys. The yellow area is where a fragmented 'frontal zone' resides just above ground level to about 4000 ft. Central is catching some fragmentary cloud moments on the north side of that boundary zone along and south of I-4. Light wind today and a bit cool, but otherwise the rain appears to be over for good in regard to the next several days (at least) outside of light "spurty moments" today south Florida.

TONIGHT: There is a good dry slot as we await the mid and upper level support to approach on Saturday. Mildly cool evening with light winds. Note image below. This clear zone is morning in for the overnight and earlier portions of Saturday.

Above shows the current situation. Note the 'white mid level boundary' as depicted. That mid-upper level trough/front will be swinging RAPIDLY into Florida around noon time Saturday and be in the area until after sunset.
SATURDAY: As noted (above), the upper level support to drive colder air into Florida is going to be due to not this front alone, but by that High Pressure area written in as a Big Blue "H". As clockwise circulation around this high develops as it builds eastward, it will 'drag down' colder air from the north. Low pressure could also form near the Carolinas. This will set up a tight pressure gradient by noon time or so . 

Moisture from the 'white front' combined with tight pressure gradient winds could result in increasing clouds from mid-morning and more so after noon to 1pm. Surface winds from the WNW -NW 18 mph G 34 mph with highs on Saturday perhaps a tad warmer than today until the leading edge of the clouds associated with the 'white front' enter the picture.

So far, it's anticipated the actual surge of drier and colder air will cross The Beachline Zone around 4:30 -5pm time frame, with a NOTABLE temperature drop as it does so. By sunset the temperature between 5pm and 8pm could drop as much as 15F degrees or so, but the wind will be the real stinger while clouds persist general south of I-4 until after sunset or near that time frame.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Wind might let up a little after 11pm, with drier and colder air intrusion taking a secondary drop after midnight...then winds begin to let up for day break Sunday. 

Lows in the lower 30Fs toward Sanford, North Orlando.. with the immediate "Barriers" of A1A  somewhere around 38F -42F; likely breezier east of both rivers due to the "Warmer River Water Effect". Continued NNW-N winds Sunday with slowly decreasing winds and clear skies. Highs barley eking 50F.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: The high pressure will approach the coast of South Carolina and as a result a light easterly wind component will be setting up near sunrise Monday. It is possible that right at the beaches near A1A from the Cape South there will be a slight warm up near sunrise Monday morning and again more so, based on timing, Tuesday morning. Monday temperatures will be similar to today's, maybe a bit cooler. It is possible the coldest air Monday morning will 'pool' toward the Tampa Bay - Punta Gorda area (30F degree readings) while right at the beaches on the east coast from the Cape South will be toying with low-mid 50Fs. Chances of increasing low topped coastal stratocumulus clouds from South toward Central Florida Monday afternoon toward sunset due to the onshore flow becoming more ESE-SE.

TUESDAY: Another front on the way for Wednesday  but daytime highs already back into the mid 70Fs as the drama is this time already exited stage left, no wait..right,or is it left (?). In any case, SE winds becoming SW. This next front will eke by as a dry one as the air mass over Florida will have had little time to recoup its moisture loses from Saturday's front.

Cape Canaveral received just over 1 Inch of Rain on Thursday

WEDNESDAY: Front will glide through almost un-noticed other than a wind shift to the ENE. No big temperature drops from that point on are fore-seen as yet another boundary approaches for the next weekend. Guidance so far has shown that one to have little affect on the temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60Fs toward the low-mid 70Fs and overnight lows in the 50Fs with a few 40Fs will inland and toward the west side of the state.  

BEYOND: As usual, going out beyond Wednesday gets sketchy  but to drop a hint the long range trend has been backing off and a cold air intrusion, well, 50/50...the overall 'feel' of the trend though is the potential for severe weather 'somwhere' in the South East States as we looking toward the last 4 days of February.

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