"Six Degrees of Separation..." (5 More Tomorrow

Photo: Sunrise this morning off Harrison Ave., Cape Canaveral, FL)

Not surprisingly, the thaw has begun. We hung a full 6 degrees warmer last night than previous mornings and bottomed out at 43 degrees here. Warm enough to go to some sunrise photos. Yes, perhaps the guillotine won't be needed as referred to yesterday. And it just gets better from here, as we may be even 5 degrees warmer Thursday morning.

Thursday - Friday: This period will be characterized with winds finally swinging around to the NE-E as high pressure moves east across the Deep South and a developing storm system begins to take shape in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. As a result, night time lows will continue to warm as will the afternoons; however, do not believe the immediate coast will as warm as numerical model guidance suggests due to the fact that, last I looked, the ocean temperature was around 49 degrees (brrr...to toe dipping in those iceberg waters here). Regardless, both days will be progressively warmer than the previous. During this time will introduce some high level cirrus beginning to overspread the region as well as some coastal low level stratocumulus clouds. Models are actually showing rainshowers right along the Cape, but I do not believe that scenario will evolve due to both the fact there is a lot of moist recovery to be done as well as the fact that the ocean waters are now so cold after this last 'deep freeze'.

Saturday: It should be noted that with every consecutive model run, the yet to evolve storm system forms progressively later and thus affects our area later. Thus, Saturday should not be the total washout as previously forethought. It will be cloudy and even warmer (in fact, the warmest of all the days we've seen or will see for a while). There could be some scattered showers near the coast by this time as air mass modification will have been in affect for a solid 24 hours by then). The chance of showers, particularly in Eastern Brevard, will remain throughout the day. There is a chance that a prefrontal band of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) could enter the picture shortly after sunset Saturday. But the crux of rain will occur during the dark hours into early Sunday Morning.

As noted earlier, model runs have been lagging with each run...so the time-frame for all the previous mentioned events may end up occurring even later (i.e., the real rains do not arrive until nearly sunrise Sunday if this trend continues).

After the front/storms: No big temperature drops. In fact, they should just hang right around normal for this time of year with lows near 50 and highs near 70 for quite some time. Dry rain wise. FINALLY!

Clear as a Frozen Bell - We Need a Thaw!

(Photo taken at the beach this morning in Canaveral)

Okay, the joke is over. Truly it can't be this cold again for what seems has been a 'train of consequences' mornings. Cape Canaveral is 36 degrees on the porch though nearby locations in Central Florida are at the freezing mark or just above it. If that's not bad enough, Tallahassee is 19F at 6am...being the coldest city anywhere in the entire Southeast quadrant of the U.S. that I could find. Will this torture ever end? Just put us on the guillotine and put us out our misery.

The good news (and there is some) is that it will end...just one more really cold one to go though first. Actually, another cold front is going to go through tonight near midnight to reinforce what we already have in place...but the warming thaw is very close to the horizon now. By Thursday morning the immediate coast could be a full 10 degrees warmer than those of recent days and it keeps getting better from there. Can't speak for those further west though (sorry).

A very general break down of temperatures for the next week shows the immediate coast to have low temperatures once again in the upper 30s Wednesday morning, then the next two mornings 10-15 degrees warmer, then the next 2-3 after that up to another 5-10 degrees warmer than that.

Hold on because today will be the last cold round the clock day. By Thursday we will all be very close to the 60 mark in the afternoon (probably a little above it)...and from Friday-Monday of next week the high will general be within the 70 degree mark with the exception of Saturday which could be even 5 degrees warmer than that. Get the trend? :-)!!

Fly in the ointment: with each day it gets warmer, so will the clouds increase along with the chance of rain. We could be totally cloudy all weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Strong storms A-Brewin'? Perhaps for Saturday from sunrise to sunset. There still appears to be a severe weather threat for much of Saturday; however, lack of instability and increasingly unidirectional winds seems to be becoming a negative factor. As of last night, it appears a very slow moving warm frontal boundary will be established across Central Florida by the early morning hours of Saturday, but this could result in simply a long term rain event...some of which may be heavy at times. The surface low will simply be too far away in the Gulf of Mexico to aid in giving any rain chances the additional "boost" required for good storm generation.

At this point, I wouldn't plan on going to Disney World or the Water parks (?) on Saturday as it could be a very rainy day for us all in Central Florida. But hey, at least it won't be freezing cold.

For today and tomorrow though it appears the sky will be clear as a bell -- all day both days. We really shouldn't start to see any clouds to fill our lives until Thursday and from that point on everything goes does hill pretty fast sky wise. Uphill temperature wise. Note: Due to the degree of variation in various model solutions and timing of an incoming consequences of disturbed weather to affect the area, this forecast discussion will most assuredly require some major revamping by the time tomorrow's post is made.

Hold on, spring is only..ummm...2 1/2 months away is it? Boo Hiss!!

Time for the Thaw To Slowly Begin Today

Show above is how we spent the day Saturday and Sunday here In Cape Canaveral :-)

Finally, it's going to start a VERY slow warm up today. As of this typing it is 37 degrees in Cape Canaveral, although last I looked Crestview was around 17F (does that place count as Florida though?). Today and tomorrow though we will inch ever closer to the 60 degree mark.

Then we'll be flirting with the upper 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. Than low 70s for Friday and Saturday. At least the sun will be out almost entirely though up until that time.

The fun part begins by late Friday as a surface low forms in the east Gulf with a nice 300mb jet in accompaniment which at this time we will be under the entrance region by noon Saturday. It appearances late afternoon Friday through mid afternoon Saturday to be our best changes of us being in at least a severe thunderstorm watch box...particularly from a Vero Beach to Sarasota line and points north.

We did get some sleet here on a number of occasions in Cape Canaveral on Saturday. What a day that was. One of worst in a many winters of recent years.

A "Blue Moon" and Full Cold..Mix'n Match

Pictured above is the blue moon at 7am this morning. What a sight!

Have to admit that I've taken verbiage from Melbourne's local area forecast to express the upcoming cold weather later in this post...as if it wasn't already here...IT GETS WORSE though. I've taken their words and put them to 'plain English'...and added a touch of flavor and enhancement (have you ever used the flavoring called "Accent"?)...

It's 44 degrees on the porch right now. Lola went outside, but came right back in. Don't think she likes the cold pavement on the pads of her paws. Holding fast to the previous thoughts that we won't see the 60 degree line for a WEEK! There are no other aspects in the meteorological realm to allude to other than temperatures, and I mean (really)..just how much can one write about that...Give Me Time however.

Here goes for our mid-term: SUN-WED...A broad eastern U.S. trough that extends from Canada the whole way south to Florida will be reinforced (I think this was mentioned a couple of posts ago) by several shortwaves (disturbances). We will remain dry however..what will be re-enforced, like we need it, will be the cold air..until at least Wednesday. For now..I'm seeing even the Friday beyond! This is straight out of Melbourne's mouth. I couldn't have put it any more eloquently " . RIDGE AXIS PENETRATES DOWN THE PENINSULA WED...POSSIBLY SETTING UP THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING MORNING OF THIS EVENT. WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR LARGE PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SPECIFIC DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL NIGHTS MINS AND DURATION BELOW FREEZING WILL BE PROVIDED A DAY IN ADVANCE. "

Did you get that? And if it's going to be that cold on Wednesday which for heaven's sake is still 4 days away...imagine how many days of cold are to be endured before even that time arrives.

The "High Speed Dirt" take on all of this is..BRING ON THE SNOW...but that won't happen..but guess what..The Weather Channel is pumping Florida and the Great Lakes early this Saturday morning. Not too often one hears about the Florida Cold. As long as it's going to do it..then BRING IT ON. Let's get over this and move on. The thing that is scary to me though, is just exactly what February will bring. Just touching on it now..but it 'could' be a big tornado year for Central or South Florida. Seems weird to be talking tornadoes while having to wear sweaters, socks, shoes, long pants, having the heat on, hot chocolate, bon-fires, fireplaces, the space heater, and popping around all wrapped up in bubble wrap (a good heat preserver)...but yes, we'll see. This prolonged cold spell could put a major crimp on the atmosphere's style though as it will take some major changes for it to re-coupe.

TODAY and the short-term: No 60 degrees, clear to partly cloudy, lightish wind but any wind not comfortable. Lows along the coast in the low 40s and upper 30s elsewhere. But progressively as we work into the mid-term..subtract 5 degrees from the morning lows...and get psyched or prepare yourself. It's really not all that bad. Hey, we've just joined the masses (the reast of the country). It's not the end of the world as we know it...But if the world were going to end ..I'd rather have it be from a heat wave...hmm..that's a thought..if the world were going to end..by what means would you prefer it to be?..

"The Blob"

Shown is the current radar image and latest surface analysis. "The Blob" is just off Florida's West Coast and steadily approaching.

Phase I of the double barrel frontal system has passed, providing 0.15 inches of rain at my place. The much more aggressive system and main cold front is steadily approaching on schedule...wish I could buy a ticket and take a ride along with it way south. As you can see from the other graphic..there's a train of weak low pressure system riding along the frontal boundary..(I drew those fronts and lows in). The main low is producing quite a bit of rain and even some lightning...so a rumble of thunder around noon time (specifics to follow) is not out of the question.

TODAY: The timing is PERFECT! (so what does that mean?) Phase I has passed. Phase II (the second 'boundary') approaching. I have noticed a trend over the past hour (it is now 9:23am) of some isolated heavier 'mini heavy-showers' developing ahead of "The Blob"...which is steadily progressing in a more or less eastward fashion. Some of these might become lightning producers as we work toward noon. But the main thing to watch for, believe it or not..is strong wind gusts near 40mph if not more as we work toward noon and the micro-storms formulate and progressively work east. Nasty little suckers they might be. But VERY isolated...the gremlins you could say.

The TIMING: It appears "The Blob" and company will be arriving almost right at max-heating, or in today's case, highest sun angle. This will be between 11:45am to 2pm. Assuming it holds together....(sort of a Big "IF")...anywhere from Stuart to Daytona on on the east coast of the peninsula could experience a good period of moderate rain with intermittent heavy spurts...all in all though..due to the progressive nature of the system..rainfall totals won't be anything worth noting except in the old rain gauge. BUT, there is the chance of thunder (some of those cells (rain storms) on radar look suspicious..and with the strong low level winds we have just..and I do mean JUST over our heads..any heavy downpour will transport, or drag down, those winds to the surface (ground level...where we are at..:0).

In any case (cutting to the point)...if one of these per chance downbursts happens to bless you..it could get 'super windy' for a brief time..in the severe category possibly..in fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, Oklahoma has much of the peninsula 'outlooked' in a "See Text"...in other words, the set up is worth mentioning, as has just been done here.

But the even bigger and more affirmative story, which to me equates to the end of the earth as we know it, is the cold air. Suffice it to say, and I know I've hammered this to death the past couple of days, get your Snuggie, Blankie, Whateverie...that keeps you warm..prepped. Personally, I guess we're forced here to actually wear socks and shoes..and long pants?..GASP!

The main front to go through in the 1:30Pm -3:30pm time frame..everyone except for maybe Lake Okeechobee and points south should be cleared of the front by 6:00pm. Temperatures on the west coast of the state really won't be much different as has been the case the past couple of days when we had relatively calm winds. We'll get to "share the wealth" in other words.

This front will be ushered in with a good cool blast, but the temperature drop probably won't be as rapid as was 'threatened' yesterday. The big drop will happen though in classy fashion..heralding a prolonged period of sub-normal-standard-acceptable-tolerable-ad nauseous temperatures. In other words, it will be colder than what one would expect for this time of year.

TUESDAY MORNING: Yup, right now..you'd think by then we'd be warming up right? Alas, such is not to be the case. This system means business..and business is good. We could actually see frrrreeeezzzzzing along the coast. Just a possibility....I won't believe it until the evil whites of its eyes is evident. So that's still a few days away.

Before then: Tomorrow morning thru Monday..Lows in the low-mid 40s..colder pockets in the upper 30s...highs near 58. Don't know if we'll ever see the old mercury in the thermometer get above the 60 degree line..but I bet it will on my sun/wind protected porch. Otherwise, it will feel very cool. Dress accordingly...for the next week. I wonder if this will be "our winter" for the season?

Long Term Cold To Bring in The New Year

It won't be as cold as this day shown from my apartment in Utah in 1985 though. I went for a 10 mile run after taking this photo....

(Today's weather conditions are referred to in later paragraphs..Facebookers ( click read on). Want to refer to the 'cold' stuff first as a prelim in these first paragraphs.

Friday Through Friday Night... the ECM/UKM/NAM forecast models are slightly slower with the timing of the upcoming MAJOR cold frontal passage---diverging from the GFS. But I'm In agreement with all (with a minor timing differentation), but what it all amounts to in the long run is that rapid Southeastward acceleration of the boundary (front) during the day on New Years is a given as a strong coastal low pressure system literally 'bombs out' over the Western Atlantic off New Jersey ....another guarantee (have fun..... J "T" C)!! . Any shower activity that materializes (which is becoming lesser with time during the mid-night to late afternoon hours of the New Year Day) will rapidly translate southeast and out of the picture. Cold Air Advection will RAPIDLY ensue behind the cold fronts passage.

In other words...it's going to get cold FAST. We can expect a good 15 degree temperature drop within the first 2 hours of cold frontal passage..which at this time appears to be around the 10am-2pm time frame. But if the lagging trend continues as portrayed by previous, consecutive model runs since Monday..it might be more like a 2-5pm time frame (but I really don't expect that). It won't take a "weather man to know"..at the first hints of a stronger wind, and much cooler air swipping away your "good hair day"..You'll know.."He's Baaaack!".

Regardless of either and/or/ but ..., by 6pm in the pre-sunset hours we're going to know that winter has arrived with gnashing teeth accompanied by WNW to NW winds gusting to about 24 mph. NO FUN! Boo..hiss...and Beyond Comprehension. HaHa..you'd think we're in for a blizzard!!

And old man winter is here to stay too...rain chances though, after late Friday, will be nil for a week at least...as will warm air. The upper level polar vortex will rotate around the great NE U.S. *just like it did all summer by the way: and eject sporadic pockets of upper level energy down its base and across the U.S. Deep South East for a sequential period of days providing cold air "reinforcements"..(in come the troops)..and that coupled with a strong Southern Branch Jet "Streaming" just to the south of us or over us...will not only generate much below normal temperatures..but periods of mid and upper level cloud cover as accompaniment. Sometimes I just hate El Nino winters.

For now..expect today to be very comfortable with a high in the mid-70s and a land breeze (our saving grace from any wind that could come off the ocean's 67, if not cooler, temperature). But clouds will be on the increase as a gift from the mid and upper level winds that will propogate clouds in ahead of the developing situation (note that I didn't refer to 'it' as a storm)...although some cloud breaks can't be disregarded as a genuine possibility.

Nothing becomes to exceptionally affirmative (forecast wise) until New Year's Day Break whence we should be affirmatively be consumed by clouds and the approaching cold frontal boundary. Rain chances in the models I believe are way over done..some folks might not get rain at all..others might get totals up to a quarter inch.

The major point to made for this post is..prepare for a LONG DURATION VERY COOL TO COLD EVENT (contingent upon what considers cold of course). If you like a high temperature around 58 degrees and a low around 44 then jump with glee. Break out the clothing reserved for such occasions..why not..it can be fun and stylish :-)

It will be colder on some upcoming mornings beyond the scope of this post..especially away from the coast..as there will be some flunctuations based on the timing of particulars that will materialize at free will as the vortex gives birth to sub-vortexes that will rotate around the base of the trough (hovering over the southeast United States..including Florida) causing it to sporadically dig a tad further south and thus allow the thickness values between 1000mb-500mb layer to decrease, ...AKA colder air to penetrate.. anything of significant, forecastable influence astray from what has already been written will be alluded to in later posts.

Thanks for your help National Weather Service, Melbourne. You pulled the words right out of my gut in your forecast discussions (the REAL SOURCE for our local weather)..so I could put them to virtual paper! You guyz rock.

It's "True, Blue, at 72"..What A Day!

What not a better time to muse on something warm, cuddly and cute? One has to be in a good mood today if in East Central Florida (not discounting personal, ever so near, matters).. The weather simply does not get any better than this.

It might be even warmer now (after this post)...and it sure is dry too. Did you notice how dry it is? Any chance of one of those renigade rainshowers that, yes, are off shore just beyond the horizon reaching shore, is nil. There was a proplexity in yesterday's forecast that even threw the National Weathe Service through a momentary loop..that being the onshore flow never developed. Instead, a weak inverted trough (induced by the Gulf Stream Waters at the lowest atmospheric levels)..formed under which the immediate coast is right on the axis of. Winds are light and variable all around..but inevitably a light onshore flow ensues solely as a typcial seabreeze for the same reasons we see one in the the summer (warmer land mass, cooler ocean = sea breeze) due to rising air mass replacement from land to sea.

Despite all this, our temperature is warming oh so nice. It's so comfortable out there I can hardly stand it! They just don't "mak'm like they used to". And that fact is going to be definitely reaffirmed in the very, not so distant, future. Welcome Old Man Winter..because here he comes...and he doesn't have bells on his toes either. He's got Fangs!

I'm not going to mention what the Weather Service or Weather Channel are saying because , quite frankly, I haven't even looked! TV has not been on all day..including the pre-sunrise hours, but I will say that this script is a bit off from I expect is being publized on the main stream; therefore, check up on those resources to get the "official" (the National Weather Service being thus). I've just been too busy listening to music and enjoying just a few friendship phone calls and laying low...

Through today into tonight: A brief swath of mid-low level clouds to pass over the IMMEDIATE coastal communities between 4-6pm.. otherwise cloud free/rain free (regardless) as the previously suppositioned deep on-shore flow will not exist to transport showers to the land mass.

Picture This Mentally: As we go into the evening and overnight hours the wind at the lower and mid-levels will become south to SSW..preventing any off shore showers to translate to the coastal communties..staying within arm's reach offshore. Thursday is going to be a pretty decent day for the most part is the current train of thought (and which is where the disparity lies with the majority). We will very likely see an increase in at first high level clouds which will be evident at sunrise..then more mid-level clouds as we progress past noon time. But it will be even warmer with a land breeze and no rain. In essence, tomorrow..especially the first half..could be "DA KINE" (minus pure, unadulterated sunshine).

Holding off on the chance of rain is yet another disparity. I think the rain will hold even longer than previously, or even more recently thought. The first chances will be shortly before sunrise New Year's Day...then all day a very good chance of rain with best chances betwee 10am-5pm New Year's Day. After that, clearing over night with a mostly sunny sunrise on the 2nd..very cool..and getting colder..for a WEEK! You read that right. I'll try updating in the more 'near-term' if conditions warrant..but as of this time there's no indication of any severe weather..but there is of especially windy weather to add to the wind chill. Just expect an offshore wind component developing by morning..continued dry for another day (not even sure what the 'masses' are saying about tommorow because I haven't checked). Happy Pre-New Year..New Year.

Totally Clear Most of the Day, Warmer Tomorrow

(Pictured above is the sunset during the passage of Hurricane Dennis off to our east)

We've finally got the coldest morning for the next few days out of the way, and the sky is completely clear this morning. Expect today to warm up to near 61 degrees today under continued clear skies and light north winds. All in all, not too bad although we could stand to notch to temperature up...like 20 degrees. Those days aren't too far off though...or at least close to it. By late afternoon, say in the 3-4pm time frame the wind will have swung over to the NE...and some stratocumulus clouds will invade the coastal communities mainly east of US1. Kind of odd sounding, but right on the coast the temperature may very well bottom out at around 9pm..then actually warm a couple of degrees over night as the onshore flow deepens, clouds prevent radiational cooling, and winds continue to veer to a more easterly component. However, expect that it will only be east of US1 that will effectively feel the change...even more so east of A1A within two blocks of the beach. The western half of the state and as far south as Punta Gorda probably won't feel the change at all and will thus be in for another cold morning tomorrow...not that any where west of US1 will be all that great either though.

Tomorrow will probably be the best day for all areas across the boards both clouds and temperature wise. Could introduce a small chance of showers late in the day...specifically for the region north of Indian Harbor Beach and south of Oak Hill to the north...as well as east of I95. Problem is that I don't think that we'll have a deep layer moiture recovery in full yet, so would reserve any rain chance to be extremely isolated even within the aforementioned area; nonetheless, the possibility will exist through mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday.

By Thursday we will probably be clouding up pretty good with mainly mid-high level clouds, but the temperature will warm with a high in the low 70s. The chance of rain may actually decrease for a period as the onshore flow weakens and begins to veer to more of a southerly component, leaving any shower activity just off the coast. Friday will be the warmest of days for quite a while, with a high near 74 degrees but the chance of rain will also be on the increase along with more cloud layers. Unless you can monitor the weather continuously, I'd have an umbrella handy upon stepping out for the day...just in case you need by the time you return home later in the day if not on the way out.

A major weather changing cold front will be passing through late New Year's Eve into the New Year day, but timing is still a little iffy as to exactly when the actual frontal passage will occur. As with many cold fronts during an El Nino winter, the chance or rain will increase but not tremendously. We'll have to wait another 36 hours to see more specifically how the rain aspect of the front materializes, but for now I'd expect to be hearing the chances up to either 30 or 40 percent by Thursday afternoon. By late Saturday through Monday we will be rain free, but expect a prolonged (emphasized) very cool to cold spell. As of this writing, I'm not seeing a temperature recovery to warmer air for quite some time...at least not anything totally respectable and worth writing about. Enjoy the next three days while you can !!

Awesome Day In Store

Photo: Storm Chasers gather at the top of Scott's Bluff, Nebraska on a 'down day". I'm standing on the far left

Like the title reads...that's the story. The coming front is 'super obvious' on satellite as a knotted, linear rope cloud on satellite imagery stretching into the Gulf of Mexico. For today..before the front (we've already had a pre-frontal trough pass which cleared out the clouds)..expect a very pleasant day with a moderate WNW breeze and cool temperature throughout. Keep the sweater out and wear those clothes that have been reserved for an entire year though..because now is the time to be doing it...although they might feel "stuffy" indoors...just don't over do it.

Not much has changed from yesterday's line of thought for the extended period..or even the near term for that matter. Hey, we even had a spritz on the windshield yesterday..but not enough to get the ground wet. Hope you enjoyed it.

Only change, and which was alluded to yesterday as a forethought to a potential change to the GFS's line of 'thought'...is that the intense cold spell it was depicting will not, just like at Christmas time, become a reality. YEAH! Not comfortable with this resolution entirely just yet though. ..one more run. By 10pm tonight we'll know a LOT more. For now, it's tonight thru Tuesday noon that we need to bundle up.

Front, boundary, flow pattern..whatever one wants to call it..will go through with no fanfare unbeknownst to us on the ground. Above our heads the weather gods will be yaking up a storm..but that storm won't come here..just the cold air for Tuesday. Be prepared. A VERY rapid repose to climatic or above norms to begin Wednesday evening with Thursday being the complex one. Don't want to be a liar or to provide false hopes at this point..so I'm leaving Thursday and points beyond out of this equation (post)...as there is simply too many ifs, ands, maybe's', or but's'...but it must be stated with that just written..ANYTHING you hear or see about that time period must be taken with a grain of salt. Those forecasts are made under obligation...but the reality is that those in the making of them are as equally perplexed as myself at this time.

But I can provide this snipet of info which I believe will be an actuality...I also feel responsible to state this because I alluded to the same time frame yesterday. That being, from last I saw..and just like the Christmas 'threat"...we won't get Super Cold after New Years as previously thought. We'll just stay very cool at a level just below seasonal norms...for what looks like an eternity.

But for today, sunny..warming to near 68..but a warm 68 if that makes sense. But, as soon as the sun starts to hug the horizon I'm running for cover!

The El Nino Blues To Continue Today

Satellite image showing perfectly the odd cloud formation directly overhead in the first image. Look over the Cape on the east coast and you can see that thin white line...first photo shows what it looked like from the ground.

Typical, typical, typical...underlined, emphasized, and begroaningly stated. Oh so typical El Nino winter in place and to continue for the next 10 days. Expect today to be very similar to yesterday with mostly to totally cloudy skies for the most part with periodic filtered sunlight to occur at about any time. With the low sun angle and overcast sky it looks like either a perpetual late morning or very late afternoon all day long. Expect the high temperature to pretty much be the same as yesterday's with a high around 64 between the hours of noon-3:30pm.

Synopsis: Weak high pressure over Florida - - an extension of a much larger and stronger one centered over the High Plains of the U.S. -- will 'bubble' lose today and float over the area creating a light north to eventually NNE wind less than 10mph all day. Higher up there in the atmosphere the southern branch jet stream continues to race overhead at 25-35,000 feet at speeds at or approaching 100mph. A low pressure system is trying ever so hard to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it will push east today toward or just south of the Florida Keys. This low will remain weak if not fizzle all together as it approaches the keys with little to no weather associated with it. As it passes south of us the strong high pressure over the Northern Plains will also meander eastward"ly" and reinforce a more WNW surface wind pattern. The air associated with this system will be coming from the recent snow covered areas in the Central Plains and Midwest regions...i.e. - a cold source.

So essentially we're going to get a cold front although I'd prefer to refer to it as simply an enhancement of what we already have in place since there really isn't any discernible boundaries to delineate one. So enhanced that by Tuesday morning it will be...bite my tongue..cold with a low right along the coast around 46 degrees and colder and more toward 40 in rapid transition as one gets west of the Banana River. Cold and breezy to boot.

Clouds to remain in place today...and in fact will overall get worse before it gets better. Radar is actually showing that it should be raining across the northern peninsula roughly under a line running from Jacksonille to Crystal River on the west coast...but none of that "rain" is reaching the ground per latest surface observations from the major reporting resources.

However, I'm throwing in a very remote chance of a 'windshield detectable sprinkle' type spritz anytime after 1pm as we may gain a smidge of additional mid-level lift and associated denser cloud pack currently approaching from the eastern Gulf. Regardless, even if it happens 'rainfall' amounts would not even get the ground wet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning will remain cloudy but as the wind becomes more WNW as that large high pressure over comes the area we could see an opportunity for skies to break up with some decent sun on Tuesday..at least for a 6-12 hour period of time to accompany the windshift. But there is some pseudo-good news in all of this. It currently looks like this cold spell will be very short lived as our warmest day, just like Christmas Eve was, will be right on its heals for New Years Eve. On the downside, it's during that period that we will have our best chances for rain...mmmm..do I hear thunder then..maybe? Maybe.

As we go even later into the week, the late Wednesday to Friday time frame, things become somewhat problemmatic as every model run of any one particular model varies greatly...AND the various models do not agree amongst themselves either. What they do agree on is that after all that will be evolving in the next of the "train of Gulf lows" crosses us sometime within that period...we will end up with the coldest morning/mornings yet this winter. But we're talking nearly a week from now, so we can still pray that - like with this last system that crossed on Christmas - such temperatures will never occur anyway.

Get Down and "Snuggie"

Photo shows Cocoa Beach at 4pm Christmas Day. Nice rain shower seemed to be threatening for a waterspout, but it never happened of which I'm aware of.

If you haven't figured it out already (by going outside), it's obvious the cold front from yesterday has continued on through as the temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler than the past 2 days. So break out that new Christmas sweater or jacket because it's going to come in handy all weekend. Or perhaps you received a Snuggie for Christmas? Maybe you can wear that around to the mall or get one for your dog too and you can show them off while going for a walk :-); or maybe you got a "Wizard of Oz" blankie. I saw one at the mall - - it reads, "I'll get you my pretty" all over it with little pictures of the wicked witch of the west all over it. Too much!

High cirrus clouds and some mid-level altocumulus are visually evident both on satellite imagery and upon looking outside, and as it appears now, at least the cirrus clouds will be with us all weekend. We may get a break from some of the mid-level cloudiness though by mid-late morning and for the rest of the day. Rain chances are pretty much zero all weekend as well along with NW to NNW winds prevailing at a speed less than 10 mph. And so it will be.

Believe that from what I'm seeing on The Weather Channel that their forecasted high temperature is too warm. With only filtered sunlight, shorter days/lower sun angle, and light northerly wind component being the rule believe they've been overshot by nearly 5 degrees -- hence, I believe our high temperature will not crack 65 today and remain around 63 or 64 at best during the hours of 12-2pm. At least it won't be windy, so wind chill won't be a factor. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same as today, with the possibility of some of the clouds breaking up by afternoon as a shot of upper level jet stream passes on to the east.

Future? For now in general thinking, we will remain on the coolish side through Thursday, with the coldest day to be Tuesday when the beaches will go down to the upper 40s with the temps getting closer to 40 the further one goes west of the Banana River. Highs will also remain cool, with the first day of possibly seeing 70 degrees on Thursday. It also so happens that Thursday late will be our next chance of some rain. Plenty of time to see how things come together though, so don't go cancelling a trip to Disney based on what is written this morning.

Have a Holly Jolly...

Radar images show the 'squall line' as well as the rain showers that nicked the Cape over night.

Things are pretty much on track this Christmas morning as expected per yesterday's post. We got down to 68 degrees for a brief time last night, but for the most part it hung right at 70 degrees. A quick rain shower nicked the Cape area about 3 hours before sunrise and we got a quick 0.10" of rain in short order with winds gusting to an estimated 30mph. But those are now long gone as most of that activity is forming and remaining off shore. The tornado producing squall line of yesterday is still marching east and now about 75 miles west of the Florida west coast. In line with yesterday's thinking, still expect it to break up as the supporting low pressure area which created blizzard conditions from Texas to Oklahoma and into the Dakotas moves NNE and 'stretches' out all the associated energy with it. As the line of storms thins an upper and mid level jet streak approaches our area and spills debris cloud across the state by 8-9am which should remain in place the rest of the day. Chances of rain will increase despite the fact that the squall line will become non-existent south of a Daytona Beach - Gainesville line as there is a band of deeper moisture and a tad of instability being shoved this way. Yesterday I said our best chances of thunder would be between 1-4pm. I'm tempted to take out thunder and just make it our best chances of rain will be during that period.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast is still on track with a high today maybe a degree warmer than yesterday despite the cloud cover. Why? We lose the wind off the ocean as it will start to come out of the southwest and not off the 67 degree ocean water. Rain, if any, will end by midnight tonight...but not expecting more than 1/2" anywhere as even the heavier showers that manage to formulate will be moving briskly due to the aforementioned mid level jet streak.

Cooling air temperatures ensue tomorrow with a continued falling trend through Monday with lows right on the coast perhaps in the upper 40s Tuesday morning but otherwise in the mid 50s. Probably up to 10 degrees cooler inland though or perhaps just west of the Indian River. Still fearing abundant high cloud coverage after a period of good clearing immediately behind the front..so after a sunny Saturday we might be doing an about face to the pesky cirrostratus clouds. Still up in the air as to rain chances on Wednesday or late Tuesday...but as it looks now it's actually appearing to be more likely that this cold front will return as a warm front as yet another wave of low pressure forms along its remainders in the Gulf which will move ENE across the state and lift the boundary back toward us for a second blow...this time in the form of stratiform rain...blah's ville. But, that is still a big "if"...so I will continue to monitor this possibility. Perhaps when the later morning model runs have completed running we'll have a better idea of what is to come rain wise. Will reflect on this again in tomorrow's post.

Beautiful Christmas Eve Morning...To Go Downhill

Boy, it feels kind of 'gooey' outside this morning...and expect more throughout the day today, tonight, and all of Christmas Day. A very complex storm system has taken shape over the country's mid-section over night with a surface low pressure system near extreme NW Louisiana and appended cold front/developing squall line extending south from it into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of the squall line is starting to move out of radar range but is easily detectable via satellite imagery. Will it make it here? Don't think so.

(Note: You can click on the Title of this post to see a Christmas Video if reading this from Blogger)

For today, expect due east winds off the 65 degree ocean temperature mixing with an air mass that is trying to warm up 10-15 degrees warmer than that. The result will be very 'sticky'. Temperatures will struggle to warm up as much as they'd like to as a result, but it still will be up around 75 degrees today. Good thing about today over the past few days, there is currently few to no clouds out there as of this writing and it's 67 degrees. In fact, we 'bottomed out' at 67 around 7pm last night, and it never got any cooler due to the onshore winds which kept our temperatures easily 10 or more degrees warmer than our friends over toward Orlando and Tampa. Gotta love the coast (sometimes). You'll see that in early spring it becomes the storm lovers curse. But that discussion is for another day, another season!

Chance of rain today is pretty much nil; however, latest model guidance is suggesting that by late morning we will start to see more clouds overspreading the area - both high clouds starting to stream in from the west in the southern branch jet stream, and from the east at the low levels as warmer air over runs the cooler ocean waters. If they thicken up enough a barely detectable spritz might occur, but I'd put that possiblity at the very low end or low ends. At least it's warmer air, as opposed to the odd situation we had in reverse about a week ago when there was fog right east of US1 at 5pm in the afternoon. The wind will start to veer to a more southeasterly component by late afternoon as the clouds continue to increase. Overnight lows along the coast...and probably over most of the area will only get down to about 67 once again or maybe a notch or two warmer for our late Christmas Eve. Clouds to increase overnight with the chance of a sprinkle ever increasing throughout the evening, especially after midnight.

Christmas Day. Not the best of days I'm sorry to say. At least it won't be pointlessly cold..but it will be totally cloudy with rain chances continuing to increase throughout the day. The now squall line well west of us will probably start to break up as it approaches Florida's West Coast...but there's a decent chance that pieces will still make it here. We could even be hearing thunder, especially in the 1-4pm time frame Christmas Day. I think the official forecast is giving us a 60% chance of rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get bumped up to 70% in one of their upcoming forecast release periods.

Rain chances will start to decrease significantly in the 7-9pm time frame Christmas Night, with the coast being the last to clear out...or at least have the rain end. After the system is passed, the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is painting a "lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs in the mid-60s" painting, with probably lots of high jet stream cloudiness which puts sort of a gunky mood on things. All this happening while yet another in the 'low pressure train' starts to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Timing on these system has been approximately every 5-7 days...and based on a study I did a long time ago, expecting such timing to be the course for much of this El Nino Winter.

Word of note: Caveat - will be watching for potential rain chances to increase much sooner than currently expected ahead of the next system if certain parameters materialize as indicated by one of the forecast models. For now I'm leaving it dry, but by Monday we might be looking at an oozy rain. More to come. Be safe out there..and try not to rush too much today. Joyous Christmas Eve!!

O' Warmy Night!

It appears that we will have a nice Christmas Gift coming to East Central Florida this year, in the form of warm weather (relatively wintery speaking) with a low temperature Christmas Eve in the mid-upper 60s right along the coast. From Orlando westward it will be a totally different story by about a 10 -15 degrees colder difference. In any case, expect today to be very mild with a high near 72 degrees with light east winds and some clouds increasimg by mid-afternoon. The temperature tonight will fall only a smidge (right along the coast, again)...then Christmas Eve Day warms to the mid-70s with continued E-ESE winds (light). Christmas Day should dawn partly cloudy with the possiblity of a few remote rain showers around, with the probability increasing during the day and into the night... thunder is unlikely do to the stable nature of the atmosphere but we'll still see 70 degrees again. After Christmas Day (Saturday)...things go downhill temperature wise, where we'll be flirting with the 40s for lows for several days. Enjoy it while it lasts!

No Changes Today...Another Day of Cirrus Debris

The southern stream jet has dug way south and is streaming from Yucatan across Florida in a wide swath. Expect more of the same today with maybe a "sundog" in the late afternoon. Cool as a result of the clouds. Same again tomorrow so may not need to post...but warmer...finally. Cloudy with a chance of rain all day Christmas Day. Then more of the same for at least 3 days after that. Kind of narrows things down. Wish it was summer!

'Tis The Season...For Whatever

(Above: Ice Skaters in Cocoa Village)

Looks like most of Florida will on the 'slowly moderating temperatures' trend the next two days as a strong high pressure center moves east across the Deep South into the Atlantic off the SE Georgia Coast. The result here will be a wind shift, as noted previously, overnight tonight into Tuesday to the ENE. The wind off the ocean will prevent the temperature from dropping all so much into Tuesday morning (thank goodness...brrrr). Expect today to be much like yesterday, with a high in the very low 60s. The temperature tonight might only drop about 6-8 degrees as the wind shifts. Further inland the change won't be nearly as noticeable as they are not as prone to onshore flow temperature modification as quickly. Even Cocoa will have a harder time to note the change.

Don't expect a huge temperature climb though. We will get into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday and days on, but it won't be tremendously warm as it was when we were near record highs last week. As for rain, still looks like the time-frame for chances will be late Christmas Eve day or more likely evening into much of Christmas Day...yes, the time frame has been pushed out a smidgen. Good thing now that has been noted is that what originally looked like a very cold spell to occur is now not nearly so 'threatening'. Essentially, not as cool as it's been for this one. Hey, if this is all that Ma Nature could dish out this winter I'd be happy. This is nothing compared to how nasty it can get, but we have yet to survive late January, the potentially worst of the worst time. Look for lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid-70s Wednesday along the coast (lows a little lower west of the Indian River and down by Okeechobee away from the water).

Just a little additional information, as winter is now beginning TODAY as a matter of fact, the ocean water will continue to cool, so the days with onshore flow creating such a tremendous temperature differential from inland won't be as tremendous, yet nevertheless will still (and always) exist.

Ave Maria - A Christmas Day (And Weekend)

Perfect Weather For Getting in the Christmas Spirit This Weekend. Enjoy the sweater/jacket weather and somewhat breezy conditions. Things will improve by Monday afternoon as onshore flow (winds) by that evening begin to modify the air[mass along the coast. The next possible chance of rain will be Christmas Eve afternoon thru the pre-sunrise hours of Christmas Day, with clearing skies on Christmas and dropping temperatures throughout the day (as it stands now).

Severe Weather Potential Today

Shown is radar at 5am showing the approaching heavy rain which might have woke some of you up in Brevard County.

As of 5am, it appears a retreating warm from is laying directly across Central Brevard County. It is raining very heavily with gusty winds. This area will progress northward in the predawn hours as the front moves further north. After this area passes on by our attention will shift to a developing squall line that currently appears as if it will enter the eastern half of the state sometime between 1-4pm. Discrete cells ahead of this line will likely form and race northward ...it will be between 12-2pm that we will have the greatest chance for an isolated tornado. The biggest threat outside of these cells will be strong, gusty winds associated with the heavier rain storms/thunderstorms (possibly). We have had a brief tornado warning already very early this morning at around 4:30am.

We will have modest helicity values and veering winds with height that will help some of the storms acquire rotation but instability will be lacking except along the very immediate coast. Most of the action should be out of the area by 6pm with lingering light rain and breezy west winds. Then the next couple of days will be quite cool, with the next chance of rain on Thursday.

Highspeed Dirt - The Song!

Continued breezy with increasing chance of ocean showers thru today. Then the potential for severe weather increases through Friday. If you don't have a weather radio, now is the time to get one. By Saturday cold air advection ensues and it will cold Saturday afternoon through Wednesday and rain free.

The B-52's - Give Me Back My Man - Rock in Rio, janeiro de 1985

This is a great song. We are expecting a few more nice days, but things start to slowly go done the El Nino hill. By Friday it all hits the fan. And from there on...don't expect to see the 70s..or even the 60s for that matter as highs. It will never get to freezing though...just plain good old long sleeve and jacket weather. Watch for the potential of SEVERE weather for a brief window of opportunity on Friday morning....we'll see! If you haven't figured it out already, I love the B52s! And the hair-dos.

Simon's Cat 'Snow Business'

We won't be seeing snow...but El Nino winter is now in Full Gear. One more day of 'weird' weather with foggy times at odd periods of the day, then we are in for warm and rain into Friday. After that..we'll see...but I do NOT like what I'm seeing...namely..COLD.

Elton John- Your sister can't twist (but she can rock'n'roll)

Warm and Sunny today with near RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (except right along the coast where a very light onshore wind will keep us right around 79-81). Orlando might reach 86)

It's A Blizzard! Somewhere But Not Here

What happened overnight?! Holy smokes!

This will be a brief one today as things 'appear' to be fairly cut and dry (the operative word) today. Yes it's cloudy and breezy but that's about the highlight of the day. Odd though, because as I type I see some small showers making landfall in the Oak Hill area; however, for the most part, today will remain dry. Any rain to fall will be in the trace amount or 0.01" category.

It actually warmed up a good bit during the dark hours but the incline will be slow today due to the ocean wind and clouds - - we still could reach about 78 though. It get's interesting overnight as the front finally returns north as a warm front, so there will be a window of opportunity (for rain) sometime between about 4am to 9am tomorrow morning. The clouds should start to break tomorrow as we are placed fully in the warm air mass behind the front with little to no trigger to induce rain. Sunday looks pretty good too for now but I'll leave that for tomorrow so there'll be something to write about.

Steady As She Goes For Today

What was that rain all about last night? We were expecting some and it finally came, but the situation was interesting so wanted to present a theory (of mine) of what happened. You can see above to images: (1) shows the 1k Relative Humidity color coded and average layer winds at the time of the rain (2) shows after the rain had dropped slowly south with time and it was over for central Brevard but still ongoing a smidge further south. (3) furthermore, we see in the last image the sharp dewpoint temperature gradient as marked in black indicating the steep gradient from dry to moist air masses.

It appears we were right on a humidity gradient from very dry to saturated at the lowest levels and they were also being converged because of the differences in the rock solid air masses ... lift was generated...just enough to create rain across the state along the steep gradient line. As it moved south so did the rain, but so did some of the 'forcing' so the rain further south wasn't nearly as strong. We got 0.52 inches at my place.

For today, looks like we are in somewhat moist post-frontal position today with no triggers for rain until maybe very late (other than a possibly detectable spritz under the particularly thicker patches of clouds)...but for the most part it will be dry. I'd expect to see partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout, but the sun will peak out now and then. What might happen after dark is the wind will veer to more easterly doing two things: (1) transporting warmer air in; and (2) creating an inverted trough along the warmer gulf stream...these two factors could easily bring rain back into the equation depending on when the wind shifts...but at this time it looks like well after dark..say about 7pm. So theoretically it could start to rain around 8:30pm. Temperatures will hold just under the 70 notch today all quads but maybe break that threshold right around 2pm. Speaking of temperature, we only got down to 62 right here but know it was a few degrees cooler at most other locales. This was a full 2 degrees warmer than suppositioned it would get down to yesterday. I'll take it.

Things get very interesting on Saturday as our abhorrent cold front becomes friendly and makes a return visit from the south as a warm front during the night. Tonight's lows will be warmer than last's as a result. convergence along the front and the inverted trough could create a possible thunderstorm or two right on the east coast in Brevard County of all places! So will see what happens with that. Also, we'll be back into the low 80s thermally wise. Sweet!

Dank is the Word - But We're The Hot Spot Too

First off, it can't go unsaid that we can't complain. Sure enough, yesterday record high temperatures were set at three official recording stations around the south half of the state as was hoped which means most places that aren't 'official' also did. I know it reached 85 on my porch. The winnder was West Palm with 90...yes 90! Vero hit something like 86 which is just one degree higher than Canaveral (at least on the porch). Other places could have been warmer...just depends. Even turned the A/C on yesterday, but might as well turn it off now as "No such luck today".

Above are included the initial position of the front and a 9am forecast position. You can see how it's slowly easing/sliding south. Also shown are the initialization and forecasts for the temperature. First thing you might notice is how Florida, home sweet home, is in the brightest of colors in the entire nation including Arizona and S. Cal. Sort of like the big, red toe of the country.

Now for today we can sum it up as 'tricky'. Seems we are getting some pretty good 'boundary layer winds' just above the surface...and the air contained therein at a very shallow layer is actually warmer than right on the ground. Sort of like the affects of a warm front in reverse. The result is low clouds, in fact overcast at the time of this typing. Will the sun be able to burn thru it is the trick. I'm thinking "no"..at least not entirely. As the front sinks closer to us the upper level clouds will increase and shunt it off from doing so. Also, there is three distinct thin bands of rain showing up on radar...and these may grow with the help of the sun. These clouds would also put a damper on the high temperatures like we felt yesterday.

So I'm going to sum it up quickly today. Believe that we are in line with yesterday's discussion. It will be cloudy and somewhat gloomy and DANK. Heck, my cat doesn't even like it out there this morning. She had to come in and "mow" at me in displeasure and shake around a bit. Then went back out since she can't help herself.

Pretty good chance of seeing the ol' raindrops falling on our heads, but not continuously, and coolish with a high around 75 (hopefully)...maybe a few degrees lower. In fact, the temperature may just barely rise at all after 9:00am if it can even rise at all before that time.

Further out has changed quite a bit from yesterday's outlook, but the one thing that is holding to form is that it won't be getting cold, although by tomorrow it will be about 15 degrees cooler across the boards than it was yesterday (for comparisons/'the feel of it' sake).

The front that is going through by mid-late morning will progress down to S. Florida through the night and the cooler air will filter in during the late afternoon and thru the night so by the morning we might be looking at 60 degrees here right along the coast. But the wind is going to swing around to an easterly component almost immediately which will moderate things nicely. Just afraid we still might see lots of mid-high level clouds...sum it up for now as tomorrow will be partly cloudy but sometimes a little more so than others with a high near 70 if we get enough sun in here. That will be the end of it (the cool)...for a while until the next system moves in which in fact is already lining up in the western Gulf. But that's another tale for another day.

-Sponsler

Take Off the Sweater - Hold On To Your Hat

Shown is the NAM (North American Model) forecast for tomorrow morning at 7AM.

As you can see a front will be knocking at the front door (if your house faces north) per what this model believes as well has the HPC. From what I can see from the other models this is what one could call a 'good fit' for the overall set up. The first thing that stands out is the lack of rain (that green stuff) before the front gets here. "Whaaaat?!!" Yup, it appears that although there could be some it will be small and isolated. It what for FROPA (frontal passage) to arrive in earnest. Could be worse, look at all the pinks and blues on there to the northeast...that's gross cold snow/ice or a mix thereof.

Instead, we wait for it to get here and then as the cooler air is moving in so does the rain. YUCK! (exclamation point). And to make matters worse once it gets here, it's here to stay. As in, all day.

Not necessarily continuously, but from the best I can tell it might as well be. But fear not, yes it's a cold front but it really won't get cold unless one considers the mid 60s cold for a low and low to mid 70s for a high. The rain should end by Friday morning...for a day. "What" again you say?

The next week at least is going to be very busy on the weather maps so hold on to your hat (reason 1)...so busy I can't elaborate much on timing issues other than to say a series of low pressures are going to pass over as this front shown will make it only as far south as South Florida. It will move north with each 'low' riding long it as a warm front, then drop back south as the low passes by as a cold front again..and this happens yet again about 4 days after that one. So conditions will be changing a lot around here after today for a solid week. And most of the time it will be cloudy but not cold...just maybe a tad cool.

Now for more urgent matters, what about today? It seems that what you see right now is what you got for the entire day. Being mostly sunny to partly cloudy and maybe we'll reach that record high referred to yesterday. In any case, it should get up to about 82-84 unless we get too many clouds at the wrong time of day...namely between 11-1pm. It will be windy too which is reason 2 for holding on to your hat. Especially watch those causeways and waterways as well as the beach. Any open area could see winds of something like 16 gusting to 25mph...at least.

Leaving deeper analysis and elaboration for coming days for tomorrow and as those future times draw nigh. Each model run has varied CONSIDERABLY as to what will eventually transpire so there's no point in stating anything more other than what already has been until things get narrowed down. Tomorrow is tough enough to have any guarantees on. Maybe it won't be all the bad rain wise, and just 'deeply cloudy and overcast'.

Warm, Soupy, Shorts and Flip-Flops For Today

While many parts of the country are contending with very cold air and snow (lots of it) about the only thing we have to contend with is morning fog (in some spots) and very muggy air with high temperatures in the low 80s today. Not bad. Thanks for the soup Wolfgang (it will be Chicken Noodle out there the next 2 days). The image above portrains the current conditions (as I type). That little yellow trough line off our coast has been generating showers all night just along the coast but that will all lift north during the mornings as our wind becomes SSE. Hard to believe I''m writing this while Christmas music plays on the stereo. LOVE IT!

And if this weren't "bad" enough, tomorrow will likely be even warmer as the wind becomes southwesterly and not off the ocean. Maybe some near record high temperatures will be in order. We will have some clouds today, especially as the fog that looks to be abundant state-wide right now starts to lift. Also, some high and mid-level clouds will start to stream overhead courtesy to the Southern Branch jetstream which is streaming overhead at about 80 knots this morning (at about 30k feet).

The only real chance of rain now appears to be limited to Wednesday and early Thursday, and even that is only a chance and not an all day rain event like we've seen in the very recent past days.

So overall, things are doing nothing but looking better and better as we enter the second week of December. And further out...say into the weeked, other than a brief cool down Friday things stay warm. Hallelujah!!

-S. Sponsler

Warmest Weather in the Country Coming Up For A Week

After so many days of the dreary "stuff" it looks like we will be warming up significantly today and for days to come. A series of fronts will be passing through with little fanfare the next 10 days in the active ingredients category other than rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The downside looks to be that we won't be having much full sunshine for a while....we'll see. The worst of days seems to be late Tuesday through most of Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday. Doesn't sound good does it? But at least it won't be getting cold. Also, the Model Output Statitics are showing at least a 30 percent chance of showers almost everyday after Tuesday afternoon....in fact, as I type some showers are streaming this way but it's still very early morning anyway. Then there's other days (perhaps Saturday or Sunday?) that might not be so great either...but again it won't be getting cold with this front either with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the mid-70s....not bad eh?

The fronts will be getting stretched out i a west to east fashion rather than diving down from the north --thanks to the current El Nino type upper level flow over the Gulf and across Central Florida. In fact, for the most part from Central Florida and points south will have the warmest temperatures in the entire country except for maybe extreme SW Arizona on a few days...but south Florida will be warmer than that area in all cases.

So far we're doing great as of 4 am with the temperature remaining right around 70 degrees, where it's been since shortly after sunset Sunday evening. Enjoy this Florida weather !

Black Friday, Blue Sky

We're right on track for two very cool days, warmest right along the eastern waters. Unless you live east of the Banana River, you saw a low in the mid 40s this morning. But over here on the beach it only got down to 51. The sun is full bore out today, all day, so if you're not in the wind it won't be all bad. I'm going around in short and flip flops today, but a light jacket is in order as the wind will make it feel much cooler, and if in the shade...forget it.

WOW! Did you hear the sonic boom as the Shuttle came in?! KaBOOM.

The wind should die down significantly shortly by or after sunset, so although it could get even colder tonight away from the beaches...it won't feel entirely unbearable. Tonight we'll have a case of classic radiational cooling with a northwest drainage flow down the spine of the state. This will again result in the coldest of air to reside just west of the waterways with the coldest morning in store for Saturday. However, at this time I'm reluctant to believe that the beach will break below 50 again. Saturday will be another cool one with less wind and some high clouds streaming overhead, but nothing significant at this time until maybe sunset when they might 'dense up' a bit.

Sunday morning will again be relatively cold inland with the coast starting to see a rebound. The bigger changes are in store for Sunday night into Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast and a hint of southerly flow and more clouds (high ones) dictate that the coast may actually warm a bit during the night, with inland not as obviously so. Monday afternoon, however, will bring warmer conditions for all and the 'cool' snap will essentially be over.

For tonight's activities, if one hasn't figured it out all ready, a jacket is definitely in order (lest you be one of the very hearty ones). Bearing in mind that some folks in the local area will be attending a high school alumni football game and a street party around downtown Cocoa Beach., if you're one of them be prepared to dress accordingly.

Further out? I'm leaving that for another day. We have a solid 4-5 days of essentially dry weather, gradually warmer temperatures, and clouds becoming more of an issue progressively after tomorrow...and rain...perhaps enters the picture very late Tuesday. For now a very quick blurb is in order..being that at this time..and I stress this time..any assured chance of rain in the future stands out..as it did yesterday..to occur during the post sunset to sunrise hours of Wednesday into Thursday morning. With this very progressive southern jet stream pattern in place things change pretty quickly and successive model runs accordingly vary widely; thus, timing on the finer details will continue to be an issue until we can see the 'white of its eyes'.

Happy Thanksgiving

The rain is over and the clouds will break today for a nice Thanksgiving sunset. The cold front has gone through, but the associated trough at the mid-levels still has to pass over, so the clouds this morning will linger for a while...maybe until noon time. But the clearing line is approaching and will be off the east coast by mid-late afternoon. The high today will reach the low 70s, so it will feel a little cool particularly as we get toward sunset as the truly colder air starts to filter into the area and the sun gets low on the horizon (and winds begin to pick up from the northwest). It's already cold up in the Panhandle, but that real cold stuff won't make it here. Being that it's a holiday and no changes in forecast thoughts are in store since yesterday's thinking...we'll leave this one brief.

Coldest days will be Friday and Saturday...with Friday definitely feeling the coldest due to stronger NW winds. By Saturday and especially Sunday the wind will be much lighter under abundant sunshine..although some sporadic high clouds could put a minor damper on things, especially on Sunday. Expecting a low right along the coast in the upper 40s by Friday morning...and a few degrees warmer on Saturday morning (although away from the coast it will still be much cooler to cold); however, afternoon highs on Sunday will be on the rebound. In general, if you can get past 10am those days..you're good to go in short sleeves. But you might want a jacket if planning on spending much time outside on Friday.

Nothing significant otherwise to discuss. The next weather maker now appears to be a little slower in the making (approaching) than previously thought..so don't expect to hear about rain chances (from the blog at least)..until later Tuesday through the first half of Thursday.

Hope you and all your significant others have a wonder day.

Expected Flights Today?...Possible Delay

(latest radar showing widespread rain, as WeatherKitty looks on).

The rain is finally arriving, with no surprise. The biggest challenge for today was figuring whether or not there could be strong/severe storms. Some storms, namely those off shore, have exhibited some weak rotation but not enough to induce a tornado. I think this will be the case for the day as well (at least over the land areas)...with anything stronger than a generic thunderstorm to be extremely isolated. I'll be looking into this more after returning from a morning shopping run...so be advised things could change. Regardless, as you can see by the radar depiction, we have a broad expanse of precipitation covering much of the state. I woke up for a bit around 4 am and the stars were out and there was no rain anywhere nearby except over extreme South Florida, especially over the Keys. My what a difference 5 hours makes.

Don't have time to elaborate much today, but that's okay because nothing really has changed as far as today's outlook goes and as was posted a good two days ago both rain and temperature wise. Expect all of today to have a very respectable chance of rain as I believe the warm frontal boundary will not push north of us but rather reside just over to just south of us. I noted on running a radar animation (loop) that the precipitation is generally moving due north at a pretty good clip which initially lead me to believe the front would push right on through...but high pressure nosing down the spine of the state from the north appears as if it will hold fast and thus block the front from getting north of us (at least at ground level). As a result, we never see a good south wind (which would occur if the warm front were to push north of us)..but instead the wind will be a function of that high pressure area and its clockwise circulation..hence they should remain pretty much out of the east to east- northeast. This is what also leads me to believe that a better chance of thunder will be restricted to the southern tier of the state where southerly wind will work their way to the surface in earnest.

There does not appear to be any one, well defined low pressure system with this mish mash..but rather several smaller weak ones. One appears to be just off the coast of Sarasota...another one just to the NW of Key West..and another seems to be forming along an old inverted trough just to the east of Cape Canaveral - - all of which, when combined, forms a broad area of low pressure across the southern half of the state (and it's here that the most active weather will occur today). The northern periphery of this low pressure area defines the warm front's boundary (at least thermodynamically speaking).

As for Thanksgiving? Right now I'm tempted to reflect back on Monday's post, namely that we could still see some light rain around very early in the day with cloudy skies the rest of the day with the first peak of sun potentially showing its face right near sunset. Temperatures will be comfortable (in the low - mid 70s all day)...as the real cold front will not be punching through until shortly before sunset. And Friday? Again, continuing the same train of thought temperature wise. Namely, the warmest part of the day could very well be in the morning with temperatures dropping a bit the during the pre-noon hour, then holding steady and very breezy as much cooler/cold air is advected into the region under max heating of the day. The fact that the sun will be out on Friday and that the air is trying to warm us at the same time cold air is being shoved in alone will generate a lot of 'mixing' and enhance the surface northwest winds. Saturday and Sunday should be no worse than scattered high clouds and very cool by standards of late with cold mornings and tolerable afternoons with a notable decrease in the wind as day breaks Saturday.

Also keeping in line with the past few days, the warming trend will commence Sunday night into Monday morning as we regain our easterly wind component and marine air is nudged onto the coastal communities overnight.

Things happen fast from Monday to Wednesday as a "Southern Belle" Storm blossoms and moves east across the Deep South with yet another trailing cold front to sweep through which at this time looks like it will be early afternoon Tuesday. Rain with this system appears as though it will be restricted to Tuesday only. At this time, watching for developing of a pre-frontal trough which would pass through a good 3-5 hours before the actually cold front, and it's along that trough we'll be watching for decent thunderstorms beginning the post-dawn hours of Tuesday. But one good thing for a quick blurp, looks like we're going to avoid the coldest of air associated with this system too...courtesy of the ever present subtropical southern branch jet stream which has already been elaborated on in length in previous posts. Until that digs south of us..and then the northern branch digs south of us as well..we'll never get below 45 along the coast (for the most part). And that occurring is no where in sight.