Pristine Today - Gone Tomorrow

(Images depict current position of yesterday's front and the latest KSC Sounding)

I drove down to S. Cocoa Beach this morning to see if any 'devastation' could be detected from yesterday's tornado. Other than lots of branches strewn across A1A..none could be seen although I know of the storm reports from the news and the paper. Windows broken and roof damage..resulting in lots of leaky ceilings inside some apartment units.

Did you get your electric bill yet? Wow, for the folks reading from Florida, FPL provided a very generous rebate. My bill was literally HALF of what it would have been otherwise and ended up lower than the previous month. What a treat!..I'd been dreading that one for a while...AND...

What a difference a day makes, huh? You'd never know that there was a tornado from Viera to S. Cocoa Beach yesterday morning by looking out there now. As of 11am the temperature was 70 degrees, but under such primo sunshine and light winds it feels much warmer. The frontal system that generated all of yesterday's havoc is now laying dormant across extreme South Florida (as shown) and high pressure is affixed across the peninsula. There is a pretty good cloud cover down there associated with it, but you'd never now it up here (further north). I've attached the KSC sounding to show how shallow of a layer, close to the ground, that our light east winds exist. As you can see one only has to go up about 2500 ft to encounter the westerlies which increase with height. Any moisture also resides only below the westerlies where the atmosphere then dries out significantly over this 'cap'. Such will be the course for the day...enjoy!

Today: Light east winds earlier today will likely increase somewhat by mid-afternoon as full sunshine heats the landmass. With the land heating up and 57 degree waters residing just offshore it is likely that the easterly wind will increase a bit and advect some of the cooler air residing just above those cold ocean waters into the immediate coast. This scenario was spelled out both in Thursday's and Friday's posts...and see no reason to deviate from that train of thought. The result? Well, as warm as it feels out there right now it's a tough call,...but I do believe that the east wind will increase enough to cool down the immediate coast...almost to the point of 'significantly" by late afternoon. The temperature will spike by 1:30pm at the time of max heating..then within an hour after that will fall back down to around 68 degrees or by the 3-4pm time frame. However, further west...west of the Banana River, the cooling affect will have little impact if any. Thus, folks located west of the Banana River in Merritt Island and especially west of the Indian River will bask it ignorant bliss as to what is transpiring along the A1A corridor in mid 70 degree air. The sky, however, will remain essentially clear for the majority of the day.

There is some concern that along with the cooling breeze that some low level clouds will develop...so that by late afternoon toward sunset not only will the sun be getting blocked, but we'll have a cool wind. But for the most part it currently appears this impact (if it even materializes, will be minimal). It's just too try aloft right now, and the moist layer underneath those westerlies is so shallow that there might not be enough 'depth in the moisture' to generate clouds.

Tonight into Tomorrow Morning: A very mild night in store. During the course of the night the east wind will begin to veer from easterly to more southeasterly and eventually southerly by daybreak. If the wind remains light enough fog could be a big concern for folks along either bank of the Indian River and points west. But at this time it looks like it would be of minimal impact. In any case, even if it does form it will be quick to dissipate as the southerly wind increases after daybreak. Regardless, clouds will be on the increase in advance of the next front as well as along the retreating stationary front now across South Florida which will have rapidly lifted north as a warm front and essentially lost all identity (even as a warm front). Not expecting any appreciable rain chances as the front lifts north..but a brief period of showers, especially along the coast, is not totally out of the equation. We'll give that possibility about a 2 in 10 chance of actually happening as clouds will also be on the increase.

Majority of Sunday: Think Thursday. Remember what that was like? It was generally cloudy with a good S-SSW wind and nicely warm. Such will be the case on Sunday. There will be a continued chance of rain showers, mostly over the eastern 1/4 of the peninsula, but I believe that any rain that does manage to get squeezed out will be shimmied to the east and remain off the coast. We'll warm into the upper 70s all areas, with the warmest of spots in the state right along East Central Florida and then along the rest of the southern 1/4 of the peninsula. Such is the case with a SW wind...where the air is blowing across the most available landmass possible.

Sunday Night into Monday Morning: A super mild night in store. I'd be surprised to see the low get below 67 degrees, if even. But daybreak will yield to a good SSW wind under cloudy skies with rain chances knocking on the door. It is quite possible that a squall line will have formed overnight...if not sooner..and will be steadily marching in this direction. At this time it appears that this 'boundary' will be nearly superimposed along with the incoming cold front rather than as a prefrontal trough...Timing as to its crossing is EXTREMELY sketchy at this time. Forecast models are varying from 6-12 hours as to just exactly WHEN the boundary will cross. It definitely will have passed by 8pm Monday evening...but it could cross East Central Florida anywhere between 10am-6pm.

So despite what you might be hearing over the air waves...timing is sketchy. Note that they don't provide a specific time as to when the 'weather' will occur?! Oh the joys of an unofficial blog...where I can make these little factoids known.

The further west and north one goes the earlier it will pass. There could very well be severe weather along the line, but at this time it appears that chance will be limited to an East/West line running from the Volusia/Brevard County line due west to Florida's West Coast and points north. As with this last system...I'll be closely monitoring the situation since the last one had a few unexpected punches to pull. There definitely appears that there will be ample shear and helicity for storms to approach severe limits just to the north...but a lack of instability and a weakness in lapse rates (which won't have as much time to recover as they did with yesterday's slower moving system) should, for the most part, preclude a repeat event. As a result, the 'squall line' if you could still call it that by the time it gets here, might only cross the area as an apparent line of rain showers with maybe some thunder audible. AGAIN...this needs to be monitored closely seeing as how we'll again be right on the cusp of what will likely be occurring just to our north. Folks living north of the I-4 corridor will be especially vulnerable to a quick severe weather event as the line races rapidly east during it's brief visit to the peninsular part of the state.

Monday Night - All of Thursday: Dry and very cool sums it up. Lows in the mid-50s along the coast and mid-upper 40s west of the Banana River. Tuesday will be the 'coldest' where some locales could approach the lower 40s; however, along the immediate A1A corridor we could be a good 10-12 degrees warmer. See, 57 degree water just offshore is relatively warm when compared to low 40s where the land can cool much more effectively..and that will be the saving grace along A1A. But Tuesday and Wednesday all in all will warm into the mid-upper 60s under generous sunshine. So it will be pleasant, especially during the peak heating hours of 11:30am - 2:30pm.

Beyond: Might want to have the heavy coat at hand (hope it's not in storage). The next system to affect us will be overnight Friday into Saturday morning. And this one will likely cool us off even more than the one moving in on Monday. But not down to freezing...just another shot of very cool air. Spring has definitely not sprung...and after all, it's nowhere near time for it to. Such is winter. Normally, our coldest period is the last week of January through the first half of February....so this is to be expected...as much as I hate it. (frown face)

....The Difference Between Night and Day

(Images depict radar as of 6:20am concurrent with frontal position)

As I type the second tornado warning for this area is being issued! Exciting morning.

Otherwise, a weak cold front is ever so slowly sinking south into Central Florida in the pre-dawn hours as rain showers and widely scattered thunderstorms roll across the area in conjunction with a 'diminishing by the minute' pre-frontal trough. A few tornado warnings were issued this morning in conjunction with the trough of which Cape Canaveral was included. During the time of these warnings there definitely was sufficient 1KM shear and helicity to warrant the warnings, however, I've noticed that since 3am those parameters have weakened considerably, thus the severe threat is likely waning accordingly. Although, there is that warning that was just issued.

Looks like the rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be with us until mid morning after which any weather worth mentioning will be over with other than lingering showers and some thunderstorms further south in a Sarasota to Sebastian line...

Today: With that said, the morning will start out overcast over most of the immediate Central Florida ahead of the delineated 'cool front'. The front will have pushed through by 1pm this afternoon and end up across South Florida as a stationary front, after which the wind will shift from its current WSW direction to more of a NW direction under clearing skies. It will be a little cooler today (than yesterday), but it will still be quite pleasant. It currently appears that the sky will be clearing significantly right at the time of max heating...so we could get a nice little leap in the temperature if for only a very brief time prior to the sun's lowering in the later portions of the afternoon. All in all, once we get past noon it will be a nice day.

Tonight: During the course of the evening high pressure will rapidly move in across much of the eastern United States with its center well to the north. However, it will ridge down along the Appalachian chain (as alluded to yesterday) and be somewhat enhanced by geographic features as it shifts east. The result will be a rapid veer of the wind around to the NE and eventually east..but it will remain at 10mph or less. The end result, as if we haven't learned by now, is that since it will be coming off the 57 degree water temperatures will be moderated precluding night time lows from falling off all that much.

Saturday: The weather Saturday will be solely dictated by a short wave high pressure ridge running down, essentially, the Gulf Stream with light east winds. The temperature along the coast will thus be held at bay to the upper 60s under mostly sunny skies and light east winds. Away from the coast, generally west of US1 the temperature could get up to around 73 degrees.

Sunday: The next system will be approaching as the high pressure off the coast continues to retreat eastward...circulation around the high and ahead of the approaching system will lead to continued veering winds the whole way around to the south and eventually SSW by shortly after day break. The stationary front that will by stretched across South Florida will retreat north and revisit the area, this time as a warm front...to be situated almost directly overhead at daybreak. Temperatures will warm nicely to be much the same as they were Thursday. In fact, Sunday could very well end up being a carbon copy of Thursday...both temperature and cloud wise. Rain will remain at bay though until late in the overnight hours.

Monday: The day will start out very mild temperature wise with a front approaching the area. It will be totally cloudy with rain showers (which will have begun overnight)...and possibly some thunderstorms..some of which could be strong. This system will have to monitored closely for more elaboration in future posts concerning the potential for yet another shot of severe weather in the area.

Late Monday - Thursday: By late in the day the cold front will have made a clean slice through the area with cold air advection ensuing. Drat! But it won't be real cold, just very cool. Clearing skies late in the day will yield to lows in the mid-50s by Tuesday morning and highs in the mid-upper 60s for the early and mid-late week period. Temperatures further from the coast (west of US1) will likely get down into the mid 40s. Light jacket weather so to speak for those days.

Severe Weather Might Be Closer Than a Sniff

The Storm Prediction Center has put out their latest severe weather outlook
which places the risk of severe weather along and north of a line running
from Titusville-Tampa (this is further south than what is outlined in
today's earlier blog post). The National Weather Service has also alluded to
the possibility of severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook...a
portion of which is shown below. For the most part, the best chance remains
in the area noted in my earlier blog post, but as a safety measure this
information should be conveyed. Just a heads up:

LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
LATE TODAY...AND THEN CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO SUNSET WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 ...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASING AFTER SUNSET FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER. DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...COULD
OCCUR FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

Nasty Weather So Close You Can Smell It

(Images depict northward moving boundary and area of most active weather later today/tonight. Last two images show current lowest level helicity and shear, harbingers to severe weather)

Most of Today: As of 7am a pseudo warm front is passing across Central Florida and moving north. Behind this boundary, and for the course of most of the day, a much warmer SSW-SW wind flow will warm the temperature up to about 77 degrees along the coast and to around 80 (give or take a degree or two) west of the Indian River. The day will be characterized by very breezy, if not windy, SSW-SW winds under a good coverage of mainly high and occasionally mid-level cloudiness. The cross wind over the causeways will give cause to have both hands on the steering wheel..and small craft boating could be somewhat hazardous as a result. Most, if not all of the rain will remain along and north of the retreating 'warm frontal' boundary...as noted in the dashed lines in the included images.

Late This Afternoon into the Evening: Rain chances increase sometime after 5pm as a weakening cold frontal boundary of sorts sinks south into Central Florida. Most of the energy that's causing all the storms in the panhandle this morning will have moved well off to the ENE, however the lower levels will have destabilized sufficiently with the heating of the day to generate scattered, if not numerous, rain showers across all of the central peninsula. (We might be hearing about severe thunderstorm warnings being issued in the highlighted area along and north of a Daytona Beach - Brooksville line by mid-afternoon with a very isolated chance of such close to the Tampa Bay area). These showers will be with us throughout the evening and into Friday through at least noon time as the boundary sinks south. Residual moisture behind the boundary may create additional showers until about 5pm Friday, but at this point I believe that for the most part our best chances of rain will be over by 1pm on Friday.

Overnight Friday into Saturday: Any residual showers and clouds will be clearing the area over night as a short wave ridge breaks overhead in advance of yet the next Pacific system. High pressure at the surface ridging down the Appalachian chain will ooze on by to the north and place Florida in a light easterly wind by Saturday morning under partially clearing skies and cooler temperatures but by no means cold (mid-50s). Saturday will be dry but feel somewhat cool in comparison to the two days prior with a high in the upper 60s along the coast and closer to 73 west of US1. This easterly (onshore) flow will be felt most along the coast east of US1 of course...but all areas will be cooler regardless.

Sunday: Yet another system will be knocking on our chamber doors as the Pacific conveyor belt ejects yet another system across the southern tier of states. The wind will again swing around to a more SW'ly component...providing for a noticeably warmer day with temperatures much like they will be today...but we will remain dry until after sunset.

Monday: As presumed yesterday, the next front associated with this parade participant will be very close to Central Florida at daybreak Monday. Rain showers will be likely at this time as well and will persist until at least mid-day before the front pushes through with cold air advection ensuing by sunset. This won't be a major cold event, but it won't be warm either. Lows back down to the mid-50s by daybreak Tuesday under a clearing sky.

Tuesday-Thursday: The good thing that at this point it that we're mainly going to be looking at lows only in the 50s and highs in the uper 60s Tuesday-Thursday of next week under partly cloudy skies and light winds. All in all not bad for the middle of winter. But, the next system will be eyeing our region... seeing as how that is a good week away, we can leave that for a later time.

Lots to savor for today in the meantime. Radar could be the best show on the screen today (beats "One Life to Live") if all pans out.

I Love a Parade (Except the Clowns!)

(Images depict classic drainage flow locally. Nationally, a parade of low pressure systems march across the country).

Another stellar day on tap! Dawn is breaking with an absolutely clear sky and dead calm wind as expected. High pressure centered overhead and a clear sky are providing for classic radiational cooling coupled with a very cool drainage flow down the spine of the state. As usual the coolest air is found west of the Banana River, but that will soon be a faded memory as pure, unadulatered sunshine beams on in.

There is no change at all from yesterday's thinking. The high pressure currently planted over the peninsula will ever so slowly drift east this afternoon and be centered just off the coast by late afternoon with no other systems near by. As a result, today will be predominantly clear with continued very light winds. A very light easterly wind will develop by early afternoon which will affect only those areas east of Merritt Island. As mentioned yesterday, the temperature will rise quickly between 9-10am..and likely get very close to the 70 degree mark. The temperature away from the coast may get up to about 72 but, again, the area east of Merritt Island will feel the affect of 58 degree ocean waters and will drop back to around 67 as soon as the onshore component ensues. Clouds will be close to non-existent most of the day.

Thursday: The morning temperatures will be dictated along the coast by a very light southeast wind in prelude to the next approaching system which will greatly impact the Deep South (mainly Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, West Florida Panhandle). Clouds will be on the increase at daybreak. Odd as it may seem, although the light east wind cool things off during the day it will prevent overnight temperatures from falling off as much as they would otherwise, hence Thursday morning will start out in the upper 50s rather than the lower 50s as they did this morning. During the course of the day the wind will gain more of a southerly to eventually SSW component by late day (note...NOT off the ocean by that time). Hence, by mid afternoon we'll be seeing mid to even upper 70s everywhere including the coast. Don't think there'll be enough clouds to offset the warming affect of the sun. In other words, another very nice day until very late in the day as clouds will continue to be on the increase.

Late Thursday Night into Friday: The low pressure system tracking across the Deep South will continue in east to ENE fashion slowly inching a frontal system across the Florida-Georgia border. Storms, some possibly strong will blanket the extreme northern portions of the state, but as stated yesterday Central and South Florida will essentially dodge the bullet (by a hair). This is the tricky part though, so it's advised that one remain abreast of the very latest conditions should you need to venture out in the wee hours of Friday morning...as there is a remote chance of a thunderstorm as far south as a Melbourne-Tampa line. That's not to say it won't rain though. Expect that some rain showers will enter the area sometime after midnight and continue until at least mid-morning Friday. It's worth noting at this point that one of the models continues the rain for the majority of Friday...but I'm not playing the devils advocate at this point and believe that for the most part this 'rain' will manifest itself as overcast skies. Strong/Severe storms are in the cards further north however. With healthy to even breezy SW to WSW winds all day Friday the temperature will be allowed to warm to the upper 70s to even near 80. The only fly in the ointment as far as temperatures is concerned is whether or not it will be rainy. Rain/clouds will damper down the high temperature a notch, but for the time being I don't think the rain will be widespread and/or prolonged enough to prevent us from getting into the upper 70s. But it won't be a stellar day.

Overnight Friday into Saturday: The front will essentially wash out right over us and pull off to the east never making a clear passage through Central Florida. The wind will start out from the west but high pressure ridging down the Appalachians in the wake of the system will again result in the dreaded onshore component on Saturday, thus keeping the high temperature along the immediate coast at bay in the upper 60s. Temperatures from US1 and points west will likely reach the upper 70s again on Saturday though.

Sunday: Our in between day as yet the next participant in the parade heads this way for Monday. The wind will again swing around to the south ahead of the next system and allow temperatures across the entire region to warm into the upper 70s once again.

Late Monday and Beyond: At this time, it appears the next system / front will be laying squarely across Central Florida at daybreak Tuesday morning (accompanied by rain). This front will cleaning pass across the entire peninsula and be well out to sea by the end of the day Tuesday....but no tremendous temperature drop will follow although it will be cooler. The days following into midweek will be characterized by partly cloud skies and cool temperatures..but not outright cold.

At this time, unlike as feared yesterday, it does not look like another cold spell such as we had earlier in the month is anywhere on the horizon. The fur lined coat and gloves will remain at the back of the closet for now. By mid-February they go into storage!

"Super Duper" Nice Today

(Image courtesy of UCAR: Depicts Wednesday at 7am - 1/20/2010)

Pockets of fog have developed across Central Florida this morning...but they will soon be a faded memory by NLT 9.00am. The cirrus clouds of yesterday are pulling out as the jet streak associated with our last storm system pulls further away from the U.S. Unlike yesterday's cirrostratus from hell, today's sky should be nearly clear all day with a much lighter wind. The center of surface high pressure will remain just to our NW today...which I believe will preclude the dreaded 'cold' sea breeze today...except for maybe very late in the day. High today will reach 67 degrees under full sun and very light NNW wind. If things 'heat' up enough over the landmass one can't totally discount a late afternoon seabreeze, however I believe that scenario is more like to materialize on Wednesday.

Tonight-Wednesday: The high pressure will drift east and be placed directly upon us by daybreak tomorrow as depicted in the image. This will result in another cool morning with nearly calm winds. Heating will be abundant again tomorrow, however, it appears that after an initial climb to near 70 degrees, the temperature will drop back to the mid-60s by early afternoon under just a few scattered clouds along the coast. From Merritt Island and points west the temperature will remain at or just above 70. Thus, it will be a good 5 degrees warmer west of the Banana River.

Thursday: As expected, the surface low associated with the next system is now forecast to track further north than was earlier depicted which will put a damper on any significant weather to affect Central Florida in the mid-Thursday to mid-Friday time frame. However, it does appear that return Southerly flow ahead of this system along with low level moisture already in place will be enough to generate some good cloud cover and perhaps some rain showers by late in the day. Thunderstorms seem like a good bet on a Brooksville-Daytona Beach Line and points north, some of which may be strong. For the most part Central Florida will dodge the bullet.

This day will be one of our warmest for the next week with a high in the mid-upper 70s.

Friday: As it stands now, the front really won't pass through as much as it will be stretched in an east-west fashion across the peninsula then fizzle. Any clouds and rain that might have materialized in the area late Thursday/Thursday night will be out of the picture by early afternoon. The wind should be out of a west to NW component providing for another day in the mid-70s under clearing skies.

Saturday: Our official high temperature forecast for Saturday might be over done by up to 10 degrees! High pressure that builds in the wake of our passing system will ridge down the Appalachins producing an onshore wind trajectory. Saturday could actually be a cool day (temperature wise) ...again, especially along the coast. We will also already by setting up for yet another system, courtesy of the desert southwest, as the wind becomes more southeasterly and eventually southerly. It is this system that will likely haved produced some flooding rains in Arizona on Thursday, of all places. As is now becoming painfully apparent, any onshore wind equates to much cooler conditions within 5 miles of the coast. This will be the rule of thumb through March. In the meantime, areas west of the Banana River will continue to experience significantly different conditions (i.e., warmer by 5-9 degrees).

Heading into early next week: UH OH! It's starting to look like the 'generic last week of January' is going to hold true to form. Drat! That means, it will be much cooler to nearly cold. For how long and how cold? Too early to say...but if all the cards fall in place as one would climatologically expect...it could be a good week of jacket weather again. Don't pack the coats to the very back of the closet just yet.

Very Pleasant Through Thursday

Today's post will be brief as there is little in the 'remotely significant' department to allude to. The cold front passed through last night, and the result is noticeable this morning with a temperature in the pre-dawn hours in the upper 50s most areas. Melbourne seems to be the exception as they are in the low-50s. Regardless, today should be characterized by off and on high cirrus clouds ('mares tails') and a light west wind. Not sure we'll reach 70s degrees today, but with enough sun and light winds it doesn't really matter much.

 

Tomorrow will likely start out a tad cooler under essentially calm wind as high pressure at the surface will be encompassing the peninsula. We might have to be on the watch for patchy fog, but that would be of little consequence and probably unbeknownst to most. The wind remain very light all day with a high near 70.

 

The warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through Thursday, as do some clouds. But all in all it will be a quiet first 3 days of the work week, at least. The bug-a-boo (where it can get interesting) begins Thursday. Current thinking is that there's a good chance of showers or perhaps thunderstorms (some strong) Thursday afternoon. However, if subsequent model runs do what this last one did, the guilty party (generating storm system) might track too far north for it to have much more than minimal impact on the area. This yet to be developing situation will be monitored in the coming days.

 

For now, though, our weather will be dictated by a zonal southern branch jet which is flowing along overhead mainly just to the latitudinal north of us aloft...and high pressure stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico at the surface and mid-levels. The main thing to be watched in coming days is just how much of a crimp in the jet stream the next system can create. The more 'crimping' we get...the more affect we'll feel from the next in the circus train of systems coming in from Southern California. Yes, Southern California is in for their 10 days of annual weather. The other 355 days there are totally uneventful. If one likes it quiet weatherwise then San Diego is the place for you (other than these 10 days).

 

Warmer days here in the mid-upper 70s to begin Wednesday through Saturday regardless...even if the rain chances currently being portrayed verify. No big cool down anywhere on or beyond the horizon.

 

SW Wind Ushers Warmer East Coast Today

Images: Temperature plot shows the warm result of non-ocean winds, dry air precedes cold front, solid zonal southern branch jet for a week ahead

Things turned out even rosier than thought yesterday. As expected, the prefrontal trough went through this area with literally no fanfare...not even a drop of rain in the gauge. This was a tough call as the official offices were advertising possible tornado weather. Sometimes holding hard to the gun and not pulling the trigger pays off -- sometimes. Yesterday was very cool here along the beach temperature wise, in fact it was cooler here than most locales in the Panhandle. Such is not to be the case today. The 'cold front' (if you want to call it that) has yet to enter the picture ...as can be seen by the hand drawn depictions above. The wind has shifted to a more westerly component which is across land and not cold ocean waters. As a result the temperature has risen 7 degrees between 2am and 6am in the process, whereas on the west side of the state (now under the influence of the chillier Gulf of Mexico waters) the temperature has held steady or fallen. Such will be the course of the day throughout as well.

Today: Expect the morning to start out cloudy with warm and somewhat gusty SW winds (all day) with the temperature getting to be the warmest we've seen on this side of the state since the New Year reaching into the mid-upper 70s. The winds will be tricky out there so be careful when crossing the causeways and particularly if you're planning any boating activities. High pressure is approaching from the western Gulf during the next 24 hours, and the closer it gets the more the wind will subside and gradually veer to a more westerly direction and eventually a light NW direction then near calm Tuesday morning. Cloudy skies this morning should yield to scattered mid-level clouds by afternoon under otherwise abundant sunshine as I believe much of the cloudiness will mix out with heating along with the ensuing dry air as indicated by the attached water vapor imagery. (the dry air is that red color)

Monday-Late Wednesday: This period will be completely uneventful with little to write or be concerned about. Our weather will be solely dictated by the strong latitudinal zonal jet stream flow (as shown) aloft and high pressure at the lower levels. Monday and Tuesday look to be supreme! About the only thing worth mentioning is that along with the zonal flow comes high level jet stream cirrus...which is already being observed entering Old Mexico and headed our way. By later Tuesday, as high pressure moves off the east coast, the wind will swing around to a somewhat easterly component (albeit light) which will tamper down afternoon high temperatures ...especially east of US1. That, in combination with periods of enhanced cirrus, could make it feel just a tad below totally comfortable. Complain, complain. Give me something to gripe about it , and I'll grab it and run. Otherwise, nothing to complain about.

Thursday-Friday: The first in a serious of a 'mile long train' of systems being ejected out of a huge circus of Pacific systems will develop along the southern branch jet and pass through with a quick shot of rain showers. Thunder is highly questionable as is the timing of exactly when this 'quickie' will pass, given it's so far out and already there is disparity among the models (as one would expect anyway). They are currently showing Thursday, but the ECMWF is already slower than that which I tend to believe, given how it handled this last system (good bye system). All in all, there is no major system to affect our area for the next 7-10 days. Temperature wise we will be hanging right around, if not a tad above, normal. Am I hearing THAT right?!

Cool mornings, pleasant afternoons to reign supreme more or less all week. Just might want to keep an ear perked beginning Wednesday night to see what's what in the weather department. One thing's for sure, we can pack away the gloves and scarves for a while. Once we make it through the next month, we're pretty much in the clear for any prolonged cold spell for the winter of 2010.

Severe Weather Potential Increasing

As a prelude to today's post, be advised that the Storm Prediction Center
has placed all of Central Florida under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather
later this evening into the post-midnight hours. Wind fields should be
supportive of sustained severe thunderstorms and possibly supercell storms.
Increasing upper level diffluence should yield a conditional threat for
isolated tornadoes as well. Thinking is that as the system holds off until
later to enter the area that the air mass over the region will have ample
time to continue to destabilize. (My addition: The fly in the ointment for
the immediate east coast will be the ocean waters...however, by midnight
this may not make much of a difference as all areas will have cooled
equally, plus the fact that the wind will not have nearly the 'coming off
the ocean' trajectory.)

Impending Doom or a "Poker Face"?

(Imagery: current radar showing warm front, surface plot showing fronts, forecast plot for 1pm from the RUC Model).

The bane of our existence has finally formulated since yesterday (the Gulf Low Pressure System) and is clearly evident both on radar and satellite imagery as a morphing blob of rain and clouds. There still remains some disparities with the timing of this system as it approaches within ear-shot of East Central Florida but at this point the outlier that really sticks out is the GFS and is therefore being disregarded, as far as timing is concerned.

Downstream from the system in the Gulf mid and upper level cloudiness is gradually spreading its shield this way, and expect this trend to continue for the next 24 hours. I believe the warm front is about right on top of us as of this writing, as can be seen in several of the frontal position depictions that are included above. There is a band of rain showers that show up nicely on radar loops that are shifting north which I believe is the developing surface warm front.

Today: The low will continue to develop today and start to take a more northward heading toward the Florida Panhandle. A prefrontal trough (as shown on the forecast RUC plot for 1pm today) will develop just ahead of the 'cold front'. Winds will be gusty from the SE today and gradually veer to a more due south component by sunset under cloudy skies and 'warm' temperatures. The temperature right along the coast won't be nearly as warm as inland though due to its close proximity to the chilly Atlantic waters. With passage of the warm front the warm sector will thicken as mid-level jet cores approach by mid-late afternoon. However, even with the PWATS (precipitable water values) up to over an inch, winds gaining some nice low level shear, and loss of capping I do not believe this will be enough to squelch the curse of the Cold Water Sea God. I think he looks a lot like "Lady Gaga" with a "Poker Face" (now that would be a sight)......trying to make us think severe weather could come our way. I'm still opting for the 'no severe' weather call...despite what I'm reading in some of the forecast discussions from various official offices. So be advised: This is just my take. Always be prepared for severe weather in cases such as what could potentially happen with this developing scenario. Dealing with this entire storm system, and I'm sure the models would agree, has been nothing but a "Bad Romance".

Rain today? Low end to none, especially along the coast. Best chances at this time will be limited to the west half of the state early in the period where such areas are not affected by the squelching effects of the cool, marine air. Despite the clouds around, temperatures away from the coast, especially west of US1, will feel the warmth by about 5 degrees - - at least --over the coast.

Tonight: I'm going to put the restraining order on any rain/storm activity once again. It's so tempting to say it will dump buckets with so many elements in place, and when in fact you can look at radar and see it out there so close one can smell it, but the "hold" button is pressed and probably won't be released until after sunrise Sunday. That's not to say that some errant shower couldn't pass at just about anytime, so if planning outdoor activities this afternoon and especially this evening it is advised to have an umbrella handy. Consider it a free insurance policy against getting the hair wet (like it will matter with all the wind out there). Maybe the most vain of individuals deserve a dunking, but none that I know.

Late Night into Sunday Morning: This is the period that the pre-frontal trough, or rather what's left of it, will traverse the area. As noted yesterday, with the current projections of the surface low which by now will be moving NNE into Eastern Tennessee so far displaced from our locale, the only thing going for us at this hour will be shear as instability will be minimized. I'm not expecting even thunder at this point, but rather a stretched out band of light-moderate rain/rain showers. By the time it gets here it may have fizzled altogether and simply greet us with another cloud layer embedded in there somewhere.

Mid-Sunday Morning/Late Afternoon: The actual front itself will be traversing the entire region and will be accompanied by rain showers and healthy SSW-SW winds. Any heavier rain shower may transport stronger gusts to ground level...but not of severe strength. Numerical models are spitting out possible chances of rain as high as 85 percent with most focusing around the 70-75 percent chance. So suffice it to so ...it will rain; however, due to the fast motion of shower activity I wouldn't expect to see significant rainfall accumulations in any one given area with maybe a rare, unforeseen exception.

Late Sunday Night/Monday: Rain, wind, clouds, ad naseum....will be clearing the area over night giving birth to an entirely different day by noon Monday. By this time the wind will be from the west and decreasing, and we'll feel the drying trend in atmospheric moisture as the day plugs along. It will feel refreshing.

Gulf Storm Poses Problemmatic Prediciton

Morning data shows there is an inverted trough just off the coast. This can be seen visually via the black and white infrared satellite image also shown.

The pendulum has finally begun to swing even more in our favor for making the recent cold spell a faded memory. The last embers (dry air) should be all but gone by mid-afternoon as onshore flow advects low level moist air in from the Atlantic. Don' t believe that inverted trough, which normally could produce a spike in better rain chances along the East Central Coast (summer/fall) will produce anything more than clouds as there is a low level subsidence inversion in place (which limits low level vertical upward motion required for rain generation). It doesn't appear that it will fully breakdown until early tomorrow morning as low-level warm air advection more assuredly occurs. By that time the air mass over us will be fully modified, so with the inversion gone coastal sprinkles are not out of the question. We could see a few drops on the windshield today, but at this time it appears that would be the 'worst' of it.

The low level pressure system that has been the story of the week is actually now materializing in the far western Gulf Of Mexico. I was beginning to wonder if it ever would. So now the million dollar question is twofold: 1) How fast will it development and move east-ENE ward; (2) just exactly how far south will it stay before taking a more northerly trajectory toward the mid-Atlantic states?

With such variability STILL occurring between the models, which is somewhat unusual so close to curtain call, the question still remains: Will there be any severe weather here?! As stated yesterday, I'm leaving this chance at the very low end until something more definitive rears its face.

Current thinking regardless: Believe the surface low will move a little too far north of Central Florida --taking the strongest dynamics and shear further into the panhandle and southeast Georgia. Meanwhile, a secondary pocket of more unstable air will remain over the keys and extreme South Florida where better instability will pond - - leaving Central Florida in a 'hole' of only light-moderate rain for this event. And timing, gee whiz, that sure has been a stickler. Current thinking now is all the weather associated with this system will now occur from overnight Saturday into most if not all of the daylight hours Sunday. And it will occur here in the form of solid cloud cover with light rain and intermittent moderate rain. No thunder.

Now, that's not to say it couldn't shower just about anytime Saturday, it just would be of very low coverage and intensity/duration.

Like yesterday, because there is still so much uncertainty in the models so close to the frying pan this may all very well change. But for consistency's sake I'm holding fast to yesterday's discussion until something more definitive provides reason to stray.

After Sunday: The front, if there ever actually is one, will be stretched through as high pressure builds in across the northern Gulf. This is not a polar air mass, if anything this system is harbinger of a change in the air mass we've been seeing over the area the past 2-plus weeks. It is actually bringing with it, given its origins from Old Mexico, a much more seasonal air mass with normal temperatures. Meaning highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid-50s. No rain for at least 4 days. Cloud coverage during this time may become an issue, but given we haven't even gotten this bugger out our system yet we can leave that discussion for a more appropriate time.

Good Riddance Cold Weather

(Image depicts expected frontal positions - courtesy of the NAM - annotations are mine)

The highlight for today already is that the temperature never fell below 50 degrees on my porch last night; however, it appears that pretty much everyone else fell at least into the mid-40s so this was the exception and definitely not the rule. Regardless, everyone will be catching up to being within equi-range by mid-morning after full sunshine provides ample heating across all of Central Florida.

Today: Except the sky to be partly cloudy with occasionally a thin, but barely worth noting, overcast. For the most part, unless one looks up to notice it won't make a difference because what the big news for the day is will be the temperature. Don't think we'll quite see 70 degrees yet, but with the way it's been lately upper 60s will fit the bill just fine. I'll probably change costume and resume wearing shorts again by noontime, as we won't be seeing it get appreciably cooler for quite some time. Good bye long, uncomfortable long pants! No rain chance.

Friday: This day will be a good 5-10 degrees warmer for everyone once again as winds will have attained their onshore component all day Thursday and through the night. ISince this morning could make it to only 51 here --that might be indicative of how warm it could be as far west as Merritt Island Friday morning. Further west near US-1 you'll probably still see mid-upper 40s but only during the late night to very early morning hours. Sky cover will again be partly cloudy with occasional cloudy spurts of little impact nature. Chances for a sprinkle by late in the day are remote, but thought I'd throw them in for good measure - but only a sprinkle.

Saturday: The warmest day of our new found friend (do you realize we've been well below normal temperature wise since the New Year began:?). And my friend, your warmth is ever so welcomed even if it means there could be more clouds. At this point, who cares? The devil's in the cold air, and I say bury him with a hatchet and pack the dirt down hard. Throw in a black thorned rose for good measure. R.I.P.

Things become a little more problematic as we head into the mid-late afternoon hours of Saturday. The wind by this time will be veering from SE toward the SSW and increasing...and oh how sweet that will be. No longer coming off the ocean the warm air will really be getting advected across all locales -- blow a kiss and raise the arms in praise. I'm smiling now.

The problem though, is that rain chances will be ever so increasing but still not a widespread onslaught. As shown by the NAM depicted forecast for 7pm Saturday night, a prefrontal trough will be approaching Tampa Bay , and I'd expect that a very rapidly developing line of rain showers with perhaps some embedded thunder will be accompanying that line accordingly. This is where the real rain chances begin. It must be noted that timing of this system has been a major thorn-in-the-side since the get go, so if anything changes as far as timing goes I'd expect this to occur even later (rather than sooner) as shown All in all though, by 10-midnight Saturday night, at this point, all of Central Florida should be under rain at some level or another of intensity. As far as severe weather goes - - despite how cool looking this system will be and with all that's coming together to formulate it -- I don't think there will be any at this point. That can always change (just remember this is still nearly 3 days away). Naturally, if things look more appreciably favorable for more intense weather mention of that will be made here along with your widely available media outlets. In other words, I'm not hanging up the hat yet on that possibility.

Sunday: Again, assuming the timing of this thing is close to what is being thought for this writing (can't storm systems get a clock or something -- don't they know we have schedules to meet and things to do?) rain will continue until about noon time. But get this, no big temperature drop at all. We'll remain comfortable by the standards of this time of year. Now, if it were summer right now we'd be freezing under these same conditions (a good 20 degrees colder than what we see in July). Kind of hard to imagine.

Monday and points on: Dry with temperatures remaining very close to seasonal norms, meaning basically low of 50 and high of 70. The coast will be quite a bit warmer overnight into the early mornings, whereas from Merritt Island and points west the afternoons will be appreciably warmer than the coast. It all comes out even in the wash. There will be yet another storm system developing and approaching the area by late in the week but for real? That is beyond the scope of my crystal ball. Pass the Windex.

"Six Degrees of Separation..." (5 More Tomorrow

Photo: Sunrise this morning off Harrison Ave., Cape Canaveral, FL)

Not surprisingly, the thaw has begun. We hung a full 6 degrees warmer last night than previous mornings and bottomed out at 43 degrees here. Warm enough to go to some sunrise photos. Yes, perhaps the guillotine won't be needed as referred to yesterday. And it just gets better from here, as we may be even 5 degrees warmer Thursday morning.

Thursday - Friday: This period will be characterized with winds finally swinging around to the NE-E as high pressure moves east across the Deep South and a developing storm system begins to take shape in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. As a result, night time lows will continue to warm as will the afternoons; however, do not believe the immediate coast will as warm as numerical model guidance suggests due to the fact that, last I looked, the ocean temperature was around 49 degrees (brrr...to toe dipping in those iceberg waters here). Regardless, both days will be progressively warmer than the previous. During this time will introduce some high level cirrus beginning to overspread the region as well as some coastal low level stratocumulus clouds. Models are actually showing rainshowers right along the Cape, but I do not believe that scenario will evolve due to both the fact there is a lot of moist recovery to be done as well as the fact that the ocean waters are now so cold after this last 'deep freeze'.

Saturday: It should be noted that with every consecutive model run, the yet to evolve storm system forms progressively later and thus affects our area later. Thus, Saturday should not be the total washout as previously forethought. It will be cloudy and even warmer (in fact, the warmest of all the days we've seen or will see for a while). There could be some scattered showers near the coast by this time as air mass modification will have been in affect for a solid 24 hours by then). The chance of showers, particularly in Eastern Brevard, will remain throughout the day. There is a chance that a prefrontal band of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) could enter the picture shortly after sunset Saturday. But the crux of rain will occur during the dark hours into early Sunday Morning.

As noted earlier, model runs have been lagging with each run...so the time-frame for all the previous mentioned events may end up occurring even later (i.e., the real rains do not arrive until nearly sunrise Sunday if this trend continues).

After the front/storms: No big temperature drops. In fact, they should just hang right around normal for this time of year with lows near 50 and highs near 70 for quite some time. Dry rain wise. FINALLY!

Clear as a Frozen Bell - We Need a Thaw!

(Photo taken at the beach this morning in Canaveral)

Okay, the joke is over. Truly it can't be this cold again for what seems has been a 'train of consequences' mornings. Cape Canaveral is 36 degrees on the porch though nearby locations in Central Florida are at the freezing mark or just above it. If that's not bad enough, Tallahassee is 19F at 6am...being the coldest city anywhere in the entire Southeast quadrant of the U.S. that I could find. Will this torture ever end? Just put us on the guillotine and put us out our misery.

The good news (and there is some) is that it will end...just one more really cold one to go though first. Actually, another cold front is going to go through tonight near midnight to reinforce what we already have in place...but the warming thaw is very close to the horizon now. By Thursday morning the immediate coast could be a full 10 degrees warmer than those of recent days and it keeps getting better from there. Can't speak for those further west though (sorry).

A very general break down of temperatures for the next week shows the immediate coast to have low temperatures once again in the upper 30s Wednesday morning, then the next two mornings 10-15 degrees warmer, then the next 2-3 after that up to another 5-10 degrees warmer than that.

Hold on because today will be the last cold round the clock day. By Thursday we will all be very close to the 60 mark in the afternoon (probably a little above it)...and from Friday-Monday of next week the high will general be within the 70 degree mark with the exception of Saturday which could be even 5 degrees warmer than that. Get the trend? :-)!!

Fly in the ointment: with each day it gets warmer, so will the clouds increase along with the chance of rain. We could be totally cloudy all weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Strong storms A-Brewin'? Perhaps for Saturday from sunrise to sunset. There still appears to be a severe weather threat for much of Saturday; however, lack of instability and increasingly unidirectional winds seems to be becoming a negative factor. As of last night, it appears a very slow moving warm frontal boundary will be established across Central Florida by the early morning hours of Saturday, but this could result in simply a long term rain event...some of which may be heavy at times. The surface low will simply be too far away in the Gulf of Mexico to aid in giving any rain chances the additional "boost" required for good storm generation.

At this point, I wouldn't plan on going to Disney World or the Water parks (?) on Saturday as it could be a very rainy day for us all in Central Florida. But hey, at least it won't be freezing cold.

For today and tomorrow though it appears the sky will be clear as a bell -- all day both days. We really shouldn't start to see any clouds to fill our lives until Thursday and from that point on everything goes does hill pretty fast sky wise. Uphill temperature wise. Note: Due to the degree of variation in various model solutions and timing of an incoming consequences of disturbed weather to affect the area, this forecast discussion will most assuredly require some major revamping by the time tomorrow's post is made.

Hold on, spring is only..ummm...2 1/2 months away is it? Boo Hiss!!

Time for the Thaw To Slowly Begin Today

Show above is how we spent the day Saturday and Sunday here In Cape Canaveral :-)

Finally, it's going to start a VERY slow warm up today. As of this typing it is 37 degrees in Cape Canaveral, although last I looked Crestview was around 17F (does that place count as Florida though?). Today and tomorrow though we will inch ever closer to the 60 degree mark.

Then we'll be flirting with the upper 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. Than low 70s for Friday and Saturday. At least the sun will be out almost entirely though up until that time.

The fun part begins by late Friday as a surface low forms in the east Gulf with a nice 300mb jet in accompaniment which at this time we will be under the entrance region by noon Saturday. It appearances late afternoon Friday through mid afternoon Saturday to be our best changes of us being in at least a severe thunderstorm watch box...particularly from a Vero Beach to Sarasota line and points north.

We did get some sleet here on a number of occasions in Cape Canaveral on Saturday. What a day that was. One of worst in a many winters of recent years.

A "Blue Moon" and Full Cold..Mix'n Match

Pictured above is the blue moon at 7am this morning. What a sight!

Have to admit that I've taken verbiage from Melbourne's local area forecast to express the upcoming cold weather later in this post...as if it wasn't already here...IT GETS WORSE though. I've taken their words and put them to 'plain English'...and added a touch of flavor and enhancement (have you ever used the flavoring called "Accent"?)...

It's 44 degrees on the porch right now. Lola went outside, but came right back in. Don't think she likes the cold pavement on the pads of her paws. Holding fast to the previous thoughts that we won't see the 60 degree line for a WEEK! There are no other aspects in the meteorological realm to allude to other than temperatures, and I mean (really)..just how much can one write about that...Give Me Time however.

Here goes for our mid-term: SUN-WED...A broad eastern U.S. trough that extends from Canada the whole way south to Florida will be reinforced (I think this was mentioned a couple of posts ago) by several shortwaves (disturbances). We will remain dry however..what will be re-enforced, like we need it, will be the cold air..until at least Wednesday. For now..I'm seeing even the Friday beyond! This is straight out of Melbourne's mouth. I couldn't have put it any more eloquently " . RIDGE AXIS PENETRATES DOWN THE PENINSULA WED...POSSIBLY SETTING UP THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING MORNING OF THIS EVENT. WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR LARGE PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SPECIFIC DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL NIGHTS MINS AND DURATION BELOW FREEZING WILL BE PROVIDED A DAY IN ADVANCE. "

Did you get that? And if it's going to be that cold on Wednesday which for heaven's sake is still 4 days away...imagine how many days of cold are to be endured before even that time arrives.

The "High Speed Dirt" take on all of this is..BRING ON THE SNOW...but that won't happen..but guess what..The Weather Channel is pumping Florida and the Great Lakes early this Saturday morning. Not too often one hears about the Florida Cold. As long as it's going to do it..then BRING IT ON. Let's get over this and move on. The thing that is scary to me though, is just exactly what February will bring. Just touching on it now..but it 'could' be a big tornado year for Central or South Florida. Seems weird to be talking tornadoes while having to wear sweaters, socks, shoes, long pants, having the heat on, hot chocolate, bon-fires, fireplaces, the space heater, and popping around all wrapped up in bubble wrap (a good heat preserver)...but yes, we'll see. This prolonged cold spell could put a major crimp on the atmosphere's style though as it will take some major changes for it to re-coupe.

TODAY and the short-term: No 60 degrees, clear to partly cloudy, lightish wind but any wind not comfortable. Lows along the coast in the low 40s and upper 30s elsewhere. But progressively as we work into the mid-term..subtract 5 degrees from the morning lows...and get psyched or prepare yourself. It's really not all that bad. Hey, we've just joined the masses (the reast of the country). It's not the end of the world as we know it...But if the world were going to end ..I'd rather have it be from a heat wave...hmm..that's a thought..if the world were going to end..by what means would you prefer it to be?..

"The Blob"

Shown is the current radar image and latest surface analysis. "The Blob" is just off Florida's West Coast and steadily approaching.

Phase I of the double barrel frontal system has passed, providing 0.15 inches of rain at my place. The much more aggressive system and main cold front is steadily approaching on schedule...wish I could buy a ticket and take a ride along with it way south. As you can see from the other graphic..there's a train of weak low pressure system riding along the frontal boundary..(I drew those fronts and lows in). The main low is producing quite a bit of rain and even some lightning...so a rumble of thunder around noon time (specifics to follow) is not out of the question.

TODAY: The timing is PERFECT! (so what does that mean?) Phase I has passed. Phase II (the second 'boundary') approaching. I have noticed a trend over the past hour (it is now 9:23am) of some isolated heavier 'mini heavy-showers' developing ahead of "The Blob"...which is steadily progressing in a more or less eastward fashion. Some of these might become lightning producers as we work toward noon. But the main thing to watch for, believe it or not..is strong wind gusts near 40mph if not more as we work toward noon and the micro-storms formulate and progressively work east. Nasty little suckers they might be. But VERY isolated...the gremlins you could say.

The TIMING: It appears "The Blob" and company will be arriving almost right at max-heating, or in today's case, highest sun angle. This will be between 11:45am to 2pm. Assuming it holds together....(sort of a Big "IF")...anywhere from Stuart to Daytona on on the east coast of the peninsula could experience a good period of moderate rain with intermittent heavy spurts...all in all though..due to the progressive nature of the system..rainfall totals won't be anything worth noting except in the old rain gauge. BUT, there is the chance of thunder (some of those cells (rain storms) on radar look suspicious..and with the strong low level winds we have just..and I do mean JUST over our heads..any heavy downpour will transport, or drag down, those winds to the surface (ground level...where we are at..:0).

In any case (cutting to the point)...if one of these per chance downbursts happens to bless you..it could get 'super windy' for a brief time..in the severe category possibly..in fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, Oklahoma has much of the peninsula 'outlooked' in a "See Text"...in other words, the set up is worth mentioning, as has just been done here.

But the even bigger and more affirmative story, which to me equates to the end of the earth as we know it, is the cold air. Suffice it to say, and I know I've hammered this to death the past couple of days, get your Snuggie, Blankie, Whateverie...that keeps you warm..prepped. Personally, I guess we're forced here to actually wear socks and shoes..and long pants?..GASP!

The main front to go through in the 1:30Pm -3:30pm time frame..everyone except for maybe Lake Okeechobee and points south should be cleared of the front by 6:00pm. Temperatures on the west coast of the state really won't be much different as has been the case the past couple of days when we had relatively calm winds. We'll get to "share the wealth" in other words.

This front will be ushered in with a good cool blast, but the temperature drop probably won't be as rapid as was 'threatened' yesterday. The big drop will happen though in classy fashion..heralding a prolonged period of sub-normal-standard-acceptable-tolerable-ad nauseous temperatures. In other words, it will be colder than what one would expect for this time of year.

TUESDAY MORNING: Yup, right now..you'd think by then we'd be warming up right? Alas, such is not to be the case. This system means business..and business is good. We could actually see frrrreeeezzzzzing along the coast. Just a possibility....I won't believe it until the evil whites of its eyes is evident. So that's still a few days away.

Before then: Tomorrow morning thru Monday..Lows in the low-mid 40s..colder pockets in the upper 30s...highs near 58. Don't know if we'll ever see the old mercury in the thermometer get above the 60 degree line..but I bet it will on my sun/wind protected porch. Otherwise, it will feel very cool. Dress accordingly...for the next week. I wonder if this will be "our winter" for the season?

Long Term Cold To Bring in The New Year

It won't be as cold as this day shown from my apartment in Utah in 1985 though. I went for a 10 mile run after taking this photo....

(Today's weather conditions are referred to in later paragraphs..Facebookers ( click read on). Want to refer to the 'cold' stuff first as a prelim in these first paragraphs.

Friday Through Friday Night... the ECM/UKM/NAM forecast models are slightly slower with the timing of the upcoming MAJOR cold frontal passage---diverging from the GFS. But I'm In agreement with all (with a minor timing differentation), but what it all amounts to in the long run is that rapid Southeastward acceleration of the boundary (front) during the day on New Years is a given as a strong coastal low pressure system literally 'bombs out' over the Western Atlantic off New Jersey ....another guarantee (have fun..... J "T" C)!! . Any shower activity that materializes (which is becoming lesser with time during the mid-night to late afternoon hours of the New Year Day) will rapidly translate southeast and out of the picture. Cold Air Advection will RAPIDLY ensue behind the cold fronts passage.

In other words...it's going to get cold FAST. We can expect a good 15 degree temperature drop within the first 2 hours of cold frontal passage..which at this time appears to be around the 10am-2pm time frame. But if the lagging trend continues as portrayed by previous, consecutive model runs since Monday..it might be more like a 2-5pm time frame (but I really don't expect that). It won't take a "weather man to know"..at the first hints of a stronger wind, and much cooler air swipping away your "good hair day"..You'll know.."He's Baaaack!".

Regardless of either and/or/ but ..., by 6pm in the pre-sunset hours we're going to know that winter has arrived with gnashing teeth accompanied by WNW to NW winds gusting to about 24 mph. NO FUN! Boo..hiss...and Beyond Comprehension. HaHa..you'd think we're in for a blizzard!!

And old man winter is here to stay too...rain chances though, after late Friday, will be nil for a week at least...as will warm air. The upper level polar vortex will rotate around the great NE U.S. *just like it did all summer by the way: and eject sporadic pockets of upper level energy down its base and across the U.S. Deep South East for a sequential period of days providing cold air "reinforcements"..(in come the troops)..and that coupled with a strong Southern Branch Jet "Streaming" just to the south of us or over us...will not only generate much below normal temperatures..but periods of mid and upper level cloud cover as accompaniment. Sometimes I just hate El Nino winters.

For now..expect today to be very comfortable with a high in the mid-70s and a land breeze (our saving grace from any wind that could come off the ocean's 67, if not cooler, temperature). But clouds will be on the increase as a gift from the mid and upper level winds that will propogate clouds in ahead of the developing situation (note that I didn't refer to 'it' as a storm)...although some cloud breaks can't be disregarded as a genuine possibility.

Nothing becomes to exceptionally affirmative (forecast wise) until New Year's Day Break whence we should be affirmatively be consumed by clouds and the approaching cold frontal boundary. Rain chances in the models I believe are way over done..some folks might not get rain at all..others might get totals up to a quarter inch.

The major point to made for this post is..prepare for a LONG DURATION VERY COOL TO COLD EVENT (contingent upon what considers cold of course). If you like a high temperature around 58 degrees and a low around 44 then jump with glee. Break out the clothing reserved for such occasions..why not..it can be fun and stylish :-)

It will be colder on some upcoming mornings beyond the scope of this post..especially away from the coast..as there will be some flunctuations based on the timing of particulars that will materialize at free will as the vortex gives birth to sub-vortexes that will rotate around the base of the trough (hovering over the southeast United States..including Florida) causing it to sporadically dig a tad further south and thus allow the thickness values between 1000mb-500mb layer to decrease, ...AKA colder air to penetrate.. anything of significant, forecastable influence astray from what has already been written will be alluded to in later posts.

Thanks for your help National Weather Service, Melbourne. You pulled the words right out of my gut in your forecast discussions (the REAL SOURCE for our local weather)..so I could put them to virtual paper! You guyz rock.

It's "True, Blue, at 72"..What A Day!

What not a better time to muse on something warm, cuddly and cute? One has to be in a good mood today if in East Central Florida (not discounting personal, ever so near, matters).. The weather simply does not get any better than this.

It might be even warmer now (after this post)...and it sure is dry too. Did you notice how dry it is? Any chance of one of those renigade rainshowers that, yes, are off shore just beyond the horizon reaching shore, is nil. There was a proplexity in yesterday's forecast that even threw the National Weathe Service through a momentary loop..that being the onshore flow never developed. Instead, a weak inverted trough (induced by the Gulf Stream Waters at the lowest atmospheric levels)..formed under which the immediate coast is right on the axis of. Winds are light and variable all around..but inevitably a light onshore flow ensues solely as a typcial seabreeze for the same reasons we see one in the the summer (warmer land mass, cooler ocean = sea breeze) due to rising air mass replacement from land to sea.

Despite all this, our temperature is warming oh so nice. It's so comfortable out there I can hardly stand it! They just don't "mak'm like they used to". And that fact is going to be definitely reaffirmed in the very, not so distant, future. Welcome Old Man Winter..because here he comes...and he doesn't have bells on his toes either. He's got Fangs!

I'm not going to mention what the Weather Service or Weather Channel are saying because , quite frankly, I haven't even looked! TV has not been on all day..including the pre-sunrise hours, but I will say that this script is a bit off from I expect is being publized on the main stream; therefore, check up on those resources to get the "official" (the National Weather Service being thus). I've just been too busy listening to music and enjoying just a few friendship phone calls and laying low...

Through today into tonight: A brief swath of mid-low level clouds to pass over the IMMEDIATE coastal communities between 4-6pm.. otherwise cloud free/rain free (regardless) as the previously suppositioned deep on-shore flow will not exist to transport showers to the land mass.

Picture This Mentally: As we go into the evening and overnight hours the wind at the lower and mid-levels will become south to SSW..preventing any off shore showers to translate to the coastal communties..staying within arm's reach offshore. Thursday is going to be a pretty decent day for the most part is the current train of thought (and which is where the disparity lies with the majority). We will very likely see an increase in at first high level clouds which will be evident at sunrise..then more mid-level clouds as we progress past noon time. But it will be even warmer with a land breeze and no rain. In essence, tomorrow..especially the first half..could be "DA KINE" (minus pure, unadulterated sunshine).

Holding off on the chance of rain is yet another disparity. I think the rain will hold even longer than previously, or even more recently thought. The first chances will be shortly before sunrise New Year's Day...then all day a very good chance of rain with best chances betwee 10am-5pm New Year's Day. After that, clearing over night with a mostly sunny sunrise on the 2nd..very cool..and getting colder..for a WEEK! You read that right. I'll try updating in the more 'near-term' if conditions warrant..but as of this time there's no indication of any severe weather..but there is of especially windy weather to add to the wind chill. Just expect an offshore wind component developing by morning..continued dry for another day (not even sure what the 'masses' are saying about tommorow because I haven't checked). Happy Pre-New Year..New Year.

Totally Clear Most of the Day, Warmer Tomorrow

(Pictured above is the sunset during the passage of Hurricane Dennis off to our east)

We've finally got the coldest morning for the next few days out of the way, and the sky is completely clear this morning. Expect today to warm up to near 61 degrees today under continued clear skies and light north winds. All in all, not too bad although we could stand to notch to temperature up...like 20 degrees. Those days aren't too far off though...or at least close to it. By late afternoon, say in the 3-4pm time frame the wind will have swung over to the NE...and some stratocumulus clouds will invade the coastal communities mainly east of US1. Kind of odd sounding, but right on the coast the temperature may very well bottom out at around 9pm..then actually warm a couple of degrees over night as the onshore flow deepens, clouds prevent radiational cooling, and winds continue to veer to a more easterly component. However, expect that it will only be east of US1 that will effectively feel the change...even more so east of A1A within two blocks of the beach. The western half of the state and as far south as Punta Gorda probably won't feel the change at all and will thus be in for another cold morning tomorrow...not that any where west of US1 will be all that great either though.

Tomorrow will probably be the best day for all areas across the boards both clouds and temperature wise. Could introduce a small chance of showers late in the day...specifically for the region north of Indian Harbor Beach and south of Oak Hill to the north...as well as east of I95. Problem is that I don't think that we'll have a deep layer moiture recovery in full yet, so would reserve any rain chance to be extremely isolated even within the aforementioned area; nonetheless, the possibility will exist through mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday.

By Thursday we will probably be clouding up pretty good with mainly mid-high level clouds, but the temperature will warm with a high in the low 70s. The chance of rain may actually decrease for a period as the onshore flow weakens and begins to veer to more of a southerly component, leaving any shower activity just off the coast. Friday will be the warmest of days for quite a while, with a high near 74 degrees but the chance of rain will also be on the increase along with more cloud layers. Unless you can monitor the weather continuously, I'd have an umbrella handy upon stepping out for the day...just in case you need by the time you return home later in the day if not on the way out.

A major weather changing cold front will be passing through late New Year's Eve into the New Year day, but timing is still a little iffy as to exactly when the actual frontal passage will occur. As with many cold fronts during an El Nino winter, the chance or rain will increase but not tremendously. We'll have to wait another 36 hours to see more specifically how the rain aspect of the front materializes, but for now I'd expect to be hearing the chances up to either 30 or 40 percent by Thursday afternoon. By late Saturday through Monday we will be rain free, but expect a prolonged (emphasized) very cool to cold spell. As of this writing, I'm not seeing a temperature recovery to warmer air for quite some time...at least not anything totally respectable and worth writing about. Enjoy the next three days while you can !!

Awesome Day In Store

Photo: Storm Chasers gather at the top of Scott's Bluff, Nebraska on a 'down day". I'm standing on the far left

Like the title reads...that's the story. The coming front is 'super obvious' on satellite as a knotted, linear rope cloud on satellite imagery stretching into the Gulf of Mexico. For today..before the front (we've already had a pre-frontal trough pass which cleared out the clouds)..expect a very pleasant day with a moderate WNW breeze and cool temperature throughout. Keep the sweater out and wear those clothes that have been reserved for an entire year though..because now is the time to be doing it...although they might feel "stuffy" indoors...just don't over do it.

Not much has changed from yesterday's line of thought for the extended period..or even the near term for that matter. Hey, we even had a spritz on the windshield yesterday..but not enough to get the ground wet. Hope you enjoyed it.

Only change, and which was alluded to yesterday as a forethought to a potential change to the GFS's line of 'thought'...is that the intense cold spell it was depicting will not, just like at Christmas time, become a reality. YEAH! Not comfortable with this resolution entirely just yet though. ..one more run. By 10pm tonight we'll know a LOT more. For now, it's tonight thru Tuesday noon that we need to bundle up.

Front, boundary, flow pattern..whatever one wants to call it..will go through with no fanfare unbeknownst to us on the ground. Above our heads the weather gods will be yaking up a storm..but that storm won't come here..just the cold air for Tuesday. Be prepared. A VERY rapid repose to climatic or above norms to begin Wednesday evening with Thursday being the complex one. Don't want to be a liar or to provide false hopes at this point..so I'm leaving Thursday and points beyond out of this equation (post)...as there is simply too many ifs, ands, maybe's', or but's'...but it must be stated with that just written..ANYTHING you hear or see about that time period must be taken with a grain of salt. Those forecasts are made under obligation...but the reality is that those in the making of them are as equally perplexed as myself at this time.

But I can provide this snipet of info which I believe will be an actuality...I also feel responsible to state this because I alluded to the same time frame yesterday. That being, from last I saw..and just like the Christmas 'threat"...we won't get Super Cold after New Years as previously thought. We'll just stay very cool at a level just below seasonal norms...for what looks like an eternity.

But for today, sunny..warming to near 68..but a warm 68 if that makes sense. But, as soon as the sun starts to hug the horizon I'm running for cover!

The El Nino Blues To Continue Today

Satellite image showing perfectly the odd cloud formation directly overhead in the first image. Look over the Cape on the east coast and you can see that thin white line...first photo shows what it looked like from the ground.

Typical, typical, typical...underlined, emphasized, and begroaningly stated. Oh so typical El Nino winter in place and to continue for the next 10 days. Expect today to be very similar to yesterday with mostly to totally cloudy skies for the most part with periodic filtered sunlight to occur at about any time. With the low sun angle and overcast sky it looks like either a perpetual late morning or very late afternoon all day long. Expect the high temperature to pretty much be the same as yesterday's with a high around 64 between the hours of noon-3:30pm.

Synopsis: Weak high pressure over Florida - - an extension of a much larger and stronger one centered over the High Plains of the U.S. -- will 'bubble' lose today and float over the area creating a light north to eventually NNE wind less than 10mph all day. Higher up there in the atmosphere the southern branch jet stream continues to race overhead at 25-35,000 feet at speeds at or approaching 100mph. A low pressure system is trying ever so hard to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it will push east today toward or just south of the Florida Keys. This low will remain weak if not fizzle all together as it approaches the keys with little to no weather associated with it. As it passes south of us the strong high pressure over the Northern Plains will also meander eastward"ly" and reinforce a more WNW surface wind pattern. The air associated with this system will be coming from the recent snow covered areas in the Central Plains and Midwest regions...i.e. - a cold source.

So essentially we're going to get a cold front although I'd prefer to refer to it as simply an enhancement of what we already have in place since there really isn't any discernible boundaries to delineate one. So enhanced that by Tuesday morning it will be...bite my tongue..cold with a low right along the coast around 46 degrees and colder and more toward 40 in rapid transition as one gets west of the Banana River. Cold and breezy to boot.

Clouds to remain in place today...and in fact will overall get worse before it gets better. Radar is actually showing that it should be raining across the northern peninsula roughly under a line running from Jacksonille to Crystal River on the west coast...but none of that "rain" is reaching the ground per latest surface observations from the major reporting resources.

However, I'm throwing in a very remote chance of a 'windshield detectable sprinkle' type spritz anytime after 1pm as we may gain a smidge of additional mid-level lift and associated denser cloud pack currently approaching from the eastern Gulf. Regardless, even if it happens 'rainfall' amounts would not even get the ground wet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning will remain cloudy but as the wind becomes more WNW as that large high pressure over comes the area we could see an opportunity for skies to break up with some decent sun on Tuesday..at least for a 6-12 hour period of time to accompany the windshift. But there is some pseudo-good news in all of this. It currently looks like this cold spell will be very short lived as our warmest day, just like Christmas Eve was, will be right on its heals for New Years Eve. On the downside, it's during that period that we will have our best chances for rain...mmmm..do I hear thunder then..maybe? Maybe.

As we go even later into the week, the late Wednesday to Friday time frame, things become somewhat problemmatic as every model run of any one particular model varies greatly...AND the various models do not agree amongst themselves either. What they do agree on is that after all that will be evolving in the next of the "train of Gulf lows" crosses us sometime within that period...we will end up with the coldest morning/mornings yet this winter. But we're talking nearly a week from now, so we can still pray that - like with this last system that crossed on Christmas - such temperatures will never occur anyway.