Anniversary of Hurricane Alma (1966) As It Brushed Key West Today

Track of Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) Alma

***From Wikipedia:

In early June, a trough in the westerlies extended from the southeastern United States towards Nicaragua. A surface circulation formed near Cabo Gracias a Dios, also known as Cape Gracias, on June 3, and drifted southwestward over land. The circulation organized into Tropical Depression One early on June 4 over theHonduras/Nicaragua border, where it turned to a north drift, dropping heavy rain across the countries.

Upon reaching the Caribbean Sea on June 5, the depression was able to strengthen, with warm water temperatures, good outflow, and deep convection. When the only inhibiting factor, land, was removed, the depression rapidly intensified, becoming Tropical Storm Alma on the 6th and reaching hurricane status that night. Initially a slow mover, Alma accelerated to the northeast, where it reached winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) before hitting the Isle of Youth on the 8th.

Just six hours after crossing the Isle of Youth, Alma hit western Cuba. Because it crossed at one of the narrowest points of the island, the hurricane didn't weaken at all. On the contrary, upon reaching the Gulf of Mexico, Alma reached major hurricane status with peak winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) late on June 8. It passed between the Dry Tortugas and Key West, Florida at that intensity, and began a north-northwest motion in response to an upper level cyclone developing over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.

After crossing the Florida west coast, Alma weakened quickly, and hit Apalachee Bay on June 9 as a 90 mph (140 km/h) hurricane. The storm turned to the northeast, where it weakened to a 45 mph (72 km/h) tropical storm while crossing Georgia. On June 11 Alma emerged into the Atlantic near Savannah, Georgia, and continued its northeast movement. While paralleling the Carolina coastline over the Gulf Stream, Alma briefly restrengthened into a hurricane on the night of the 11th. This intensification trend ended when cold waters and dry air approached the system, causing Alma to lose its tropical characteristics on June 13 while east of the Delmarva Peninsula. As an extratropical storm, Alma lasted another day before dissipating near Cape Cod.

One week before its hurricane preparations for the season, Alma gave the Kennedy Space Center a chance to go through the situation under the threat of a real storm. A mock-up of a Saturn V rocket was rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building on June 8, within 12 hours in the face of 60 mph (97 km/h) wind gusts, within the anticipated time for such a move. Two other rockets were also removed from their pads.

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Interesting similarity: It is interesting with the current Invest which is now unlikely to develop anytime soon (if ever), that this Hurricane formed in a similar location as the area of investigation now in the Caribbean. However, the current pattern is not all that unusual for this time of year, so this is where the comparisons will stop at this point..other than to show an image of where the other storms of 1966 occurred.

Named storms of 1966. We can see the "Alma Track' going into the North Florida

LOCAL "HSD"** FORECAST: Not much change in thinking for the next several days. We'll quickly jump to a tropical discussion since that is what local weather COULD be all about in the next few days. But mostly because local news channel outlets might be referring to the tropics on the news tonight, if not already today.

TROPICS:  That being said (above), it is hard to know just what to think. The ECMWF/NAM/and NOGAPS want to bring a surface low NOT directly related to the surface circulation now (and for several days) over the SW Caribbean northward which develops near the Cuban North Coast toward the South Central Bahamas as it develops in the next 36 hours.  Although I'm having a hard time finding evidence of the supposed yet to be entity at this time, it is not entirely out of the question.  This entity forecast by the models  though, does seem a bit 'fishy' given that it would be forming on the subsident (sinking air) side of the jet stream level winds currently in place in this same region (the same winds responsible from preventing further tropical developing/strengthening of the area of investigation down there now).  With that, whatever would happen to form down there as portrayed by these models would not be entirely tropical in nature, but rather start right off as some sort of pseudo-hybrid (in my opinion only).  Given that the area of low pressure formation is not even being considered by the Hurricane Center last I looked which was about 20 minutes ago, that idea of anything to form being non-fully tropical (at least)  seems to be on the right track.  These models bring a surface low northward either on of just off the Florida east coast during the course of the next 48-96 hours.

The GFS model has a similar idea (and seems more reasonable)...with forming a circulation over or near far Eastern Cuba and shifting it NE-ENE ward well east of the state entirely with no effect whatsoever.

At this time, most official outlets are holding back on advertising higher rain chances with the uncertainties being as great as they are right now.  However, no matter which evolution (if either) occurs, Central and North Florida would feel little impact other than a brief increase in a chance of rain showers sometime Friday for the most part.

Otherwise, the area in the Caribbean could very well remain unsettled for quite some time until something more organized can develop there either way.

OTHERWISE:

CURRENT: Convergent band of rain showers that formed overnight into coastal St. Lucie county and westward is shifting south this afternoon and is now a part of a line of showers being generated off the Eastern most Bahama Islands and into or near the West Palm Beach area.  Another convergent band of only clouds has lined up over North and Central Brevard and inland a bit, extending east well into the Atlantic. High clouds are spreading across far South Florida which could work their way into Central Florida by sunset, which might also put the kibosh on the showers further south due to their stabilizing influence.

TONIGHT: There is a chance of an overnight rain shower or two along Coastal Brevard and Indian River Counties after 2-3AM. No impact other than to hopefully get the grass watered if it does occur. Latest short term model guidance is showing a 500mb vorticity lobe to rotate Northeastward from SW Florida overnight, which would be the initiating factor for these showers. High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) guidance shows a similar scenario, but mainly only over South Florida...could at least some some increased cloud coverage at a minimum.

TOMORROW: Continued easterly fetch with a slight overall increased in atmospheric moisture as far north as the Beachline region. Thus, rain and possibly inland thunderstorms are not totally out of the question tomorrow of isolated nature. Looking forward to seeing if any new surprises are in store by the morning hours. Latest NEW RUC guidance is showing some heavier rain showers near the east coast by early afternoon, but not buying into it at this time.

BEYOND: Reference the tropical portion of this post.  Other than what is stated above in those preceding paragraphs, we can add that if a low pressure system does form and moves well east of the state, rain chances will go down for all but the west side of the state.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to insist on the beginning of afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, favoring the east side of the state beginning around Wednesday. Previous runs have reflected thia time frame (somewhere between Wednesday and Saturday) for this activity to commence for nearly 5 days now. Do not know if there is some climatological basis for its forecast in the extended time-frame.  What it does show, is  a broad and deeper upper level trough becomes established over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico to near and/or over Florida for at least 6 days after next Wednesday. This would place Florida in a west to the east steering flow, with a few days possibly consisting of strong thunderstorms due to cold air aloft (a part of the upper level trough)...and divergent jet stream level winds (also associated with this 'troughiness" in the upper level wind flow. Time will tell. Could use the rain.

**HSD - High Speed Dirt

Chance of Thunder in North Florida/Panhandle, Small Chance Portions of North Central

Shown: Mock radar composite reflectivity (what radar would look like) at 9:15AM this morning. The area off the Florida East Coast is relatively accurate. This area is moving slowly toward the wwst to WSW this morning, whereas the areas of 'showers' depicted elsewhere do not exist. Details in text below.

TODAY: High pressure in the mid-upper levels remains over the Deep South and Florida. Showers (with some lightning per lightning imagery) seems to be related to a weak mid-level disturbance embedded around the main clockwise circulation around the periphery of these high pressure 'centers', per se.


Otherwise, the clockwise circulation is bringing full easterly flow across Peninsular Florida, but it is weaker over North Florida closer to the center of the high pressure areas.  With this factor considered, for today it currently seems feasible to believe that a Gulf Coast Sea Breeze will be able to establish over the Panhandle and a portion of far North Central Florida (west of Gainesville) where thunderstorms will be most apt to be able to develop. This same region is also forecast by all guidance to have the most unstable air conducive for storm development. It does not appear that a west coast sea breeze will be able to develop further south, or if so, it would be so close to the coast in a more stable air mass (namely south of Brooksville) that thunder or even showers would be able to develop there as a result of a sea breeze/Lake Breeze collsion.


Meanwhile (and additionally), the best low-mid level moisture going into mid-afternoon is forecast to exist outside of the most unstable air to the north...which does not really make sense considering that moist air is more buoyant.   However, taking the forecast moisture fields into account, as well as having viewed visible satellite imagery the past two hours, it would not be entirely infeasible to consider that rain showers could reach the Florida North Central Coastal communities by mid-afternoon toward Flagler County and eventually southward with time toward far North Brevard county.  The Flagler option seems most plausible at this time; further south, it  will be a race with time considering that Convective Inhibition is forecast to expand northward from South Florida toward the Cape area by 7pm.  With those factors in mind, we cannot entirely discount the chance that some of those offshore showers might impede upon the coast by early-mid afternoon as far south as Volusia County as thunder or even North Brevard as showers later today.  


Further south in Southern Volusia/North Brevard, not so sure the activity will even be 'surface based', especially since model guidance indicates the activity is associated with a mid-level trough around 700mb (10,000 ft) rather than a surface trough. Again, with that factor in mind, the Cape area north of the 520 Cswy might see a few drops of rain before the sun has set late today (North Brevard).  


Keep in mind, any minor deviation in the ebb and flow during the day today could either:


 A) totally preclude rain chances at all along the east coast. This would be due to the fact that the easterly gradient flow combined with the east coast sea breeze (which is forecast to pick up to 15-22mph this afternoon) would squelch the activity currently offshore as it approaches the coast due to subsiding (sinking) air behind the sea breeze, leaving it as only elevated 'junk' clouds; or, 


 B) increase the thunder chance further south toward the 520 CSWY; or


 C) per model guidance on average  as currently portrayed by some models, bring a certain chance of at least rain with a few rumbles into Flagler and Volusia Counties with measurable rain by 3-4pm.


Elsewhere, no rain is expected to occur over South Central or South Florida today.


BEYOND: Little change in the mid-long range models, as well as with the feisty NAM. Again, the NAM is forecasting an inverted trough, and even a bit of a close low-mid level area of low pressure to press northward during the next 42-84 hours into Florida. The net effect is a band of precipitation moving northward with time from South Florida and into Central Florida before the weekend. Again, I'm discarding it; but watching with care. The ECMWF (European Model)...seems to indicate a similar scenario but the information I have over the internet without using a 'pay service' does not provide the finer details. 


Meanwhile, the GFS holds firm to its previous idea from 3 days ago, with only minor deviations in timing and pressure system locations. That being, once the jet stream level winds which are currently suppressing tropical development in the SW Caribbean shift east of Florida, this permits either an inverted trough or a  weak low pressure center to move into the Eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) west of the peninsula going into early next week.  This would increase the moisture levels over all of the state and completely change the low-mid-upper level wind fields across the state, favoring the east side for diurnal afternoon rain/thunderstorm chances in only a slight/moderate unstable atmospheric thermal profile. In other words, late week through next week are still up for grabs... but I'm tending to favor the GFS considering how consistent it has been...and hoping for the needed rainfall over South Florida optimistically (and admittedly, wishfully).

High Clouds Plague the Beachline Today, Rain/Thunder Chances N. Florida

Image indicates a low pressure trough at the jet stream level over the Gulf. This little devil is pulling moisture at the jet stream level northward from the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean and then spilling it eastward across Central Florida as can be seen above where the blue colors are shown. Based on animation of this image type, it appears these clouds will persist across the immediate Central Florida area through the day. The area shown in green across N. Florid is where it is most likely to receive rain (thunderstorms) today, potentially strong near the 'Gator' toward the 'Seminole' Territory. 

TODAY: Weak surface trough of low pressure with embedded surface bubble lows exists across the Gulf Coast early this Monday afternoon. When connecting the dots of lows....they make up a weak frontal boundary extending out into the Atlantic generally east of Jacksonville west toward SE Texas. This 'boundary' will work south after sunset.  Meanwhile, as can be seen above, high clouds are forming well aloft due to moisture being drawn from the Caribbean at the jet stream level, then rooster tailing eastward across the Central Peninsula. It is completely overcast directly under this moisture plume, of only high clouds. It is also a bit hazy west of the immediate east coast ahead of the east coast sea breeze of little/no consequence underneath warm air aloft.

Black lines depict low pressure pressure troughs. Not shown is the weak, bubble lows from off shore the  NE Florida Coast and west toward SE Texas; 'dot-connect' and they create a weak frontal trough (on paper). Best chance of showers, as shown in the previous image as well as above, is located over North Central Florida toward Tallahassee where the boundaries meet, and where instability is greatest due to moisture near these boundaries and less high cloud coverage to start with.

TUESDAY; The weak boundary and jet stream level winds could well adjust further south by Tuesday which would place more of the Southern Portion of the state under the high clouds. We'll have to just await our turn after sunrise tomorrow to see if this is what occurs.  Otherwise, temperatures running status quo morning, noon, and night with a more prevalent easterly flow across all of the state tomorrow as the surface boundary washes out. Best chance of thunderstorms will be near the west coast, although I'm not totally prepared to rule out some pre-dawn to mid-morning east coast showers over portions of Central Florida before the boundary slides to South Florida and washes out by mid-afternoon at the latest. Afternoon showers and some thunder area possible over South Florida tomorrow as well, mainly well west of I-95.


WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Already, big discrepancies between the two main player models (NAM and GFS) has emerged; although, I was totally not expecting to see what I'm seeing last I peeked. Believe the NAM, which is crying out for big rains and possibly 'twisting storms' by Thursday over portions of South and Central Florida has had too much "Energy-X" beverage this morning, and therefore will ride with the GFS which has been consistent. That given...continued easterly low and mid-level wind flow across the peninsula with increasing atmospheric moisture at all levels (not just the high  and low levels) moving into Thursday, with limited to zero rain chances. Per this guidance, the chances of rain increases though.


SATURDAY/BEYOND: Guidance based on the GFS has been bringing a remnant low from the Caribbean northward into the Easstern Gulf as a bit of a north/south aligned inverted trough going into the weekend which eventually merges with a continental cold frontal system from the NW later next week.  The merger of the two brings a generous moisture surge across the "Drought-Thirsty State". Initially, as soon as possibly late Thursday into  Friday over South Florida and eventually to more and more of the state with time. 


Now, whether this moisture will manifest as actual rain or simply totally overcast skies is yet to be determined; although all guidance I've seen is painting precipitation on the "paint by numbers' grid of blue, green, and yellow (in other words, more than enough rain to make puddles).  Additionally, under the assumption that if this is rain, will it be thunderstorms or just rain? Probably just rain. However, with time...as the inverted trough associated with the Caribbean System washes out and the supposed frontal boundary eventually makes leeway toward the state, conditions would become more favorable for generic thunderstorms with time. Temperatures aloft are not forecast to be cold enough, nor are winds aloft forecast to be strong enough...for any severe weather.


IN FOLDING AND AS READS ON THE BLOG PAGE AT ALL TIMES: All statements/assumptions are of the authors own. Please consult the NWS or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for official local and tropical weather forecasts/outlooks. Given the unpredictability of the weather in coming days, large changes in the forecast over a 24 hour period in the next 2-6 days can be expected  both within these writings as well as over broadcast news channels across the state.

Tropical Entity in the SW Caribbean/High Pressure Reduce Rain Chances

Salt River Canyon, Arizona. Author drove through this region on Friday taking in the sites, after contending with very smoky conditions the day before brought about by a large 50K acre fire in Southern Arizona

TODAY/SUNDAY: Not much change with on-shore flow and little to none in sea breeze convergence boundaries to account for any chances of thunderstorms over the peninsula. A small chance exists along I-10 in the Panhandle.


MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME: A weak low pressure area is still being forecast by the GFS model last night to form off the Carolina's as surface high pressure relaxes. The main net effect will be to delay the east coast sea breeze at least one of these days, resulting in very warm late morning to early afternoon temperatures at the beaches with a slight increase in moisture (humidity).  It appears the best chance of rain still appears will occur over North Central and North Florida. ...There exists a chance (albeit smaller) as far south as the Beachline by early to mid-evening Monday night going into Tuesday.


WEDNESDAY: Better chance for showers and thunder toward the west half of the state as the onshore flow pattern at the low-mid levels resumes control.  


TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure continues in the SW Caribbean. The main threat at this time would be flash flooding in the area around Jamaica.  Models fluctuate vastly on the potential future development of a more organized low pressure system (depression/tropical storm), as well as the eventual forward motion that, should one develop, it would take.  Given the high degree of uncertainty, and the zero threat to Florida for at least 8 days, further elaboration on this area is not necessary at this time.


WEATHER AHEAD: Until the synoptic scale pattern which is maintaining the uncertainty in the tropical weather forecast, so will the pattern over Florida remain a bit uncertain in the extended time frame. Unlike what was considered yesterday regarding the onset of the wet, thunderstorm season...it could be next weekend or the weekend after that (or some time in between), before we see a change in the pattern for sure.


TOO SOON TO THINK ABOUT TROPICAL WEATHER THREATS?: In a few days, a post will be made addressing hurricane preparedness. In this regard, ask yourself: If you live on a barrier island or within a few miles of the coast, what would it take for you to leave the area? Do you leave whenever an evacuation 'mandate' is in place, or stay?  Consider preparations either way, and keep in mind: 1) no electricity for days on end: erstwhile mosquitoes, heat, humidity, closed businesses, no gas, etc...should one stay even if not effected by anything other than inconvenience and discomfort. Do you have a pet? Consider their needs. Gas? Food supplies? A generator for simpler electrical needs? Boarding for windows?  If you leave, where will you go for that matter?!! With important papers/records?  A preparedness kit and a checklist both will greatly lead you and your family into the Tropical Storm Season a bit less ill at ease if nothing else. When an evacuation is in place for your area, the utmost safe assured thing to do is heed the broadcast with your checklist in tow.


When evacuation is mandated, HEAD FOR THE HILLS as these folks did during Hurricane Frances (below):

Higher ground is your safest option

Florida's Typical Thunderstorm Season Could Begin by NEXT Weekend

This Image (per the GFS Model) Indicates that a surface ridge of high pressure could be established across the peninsula firmly by June 11th or 12th. The forecast indicates that from this point on the ridge might hold for a number of days. Long enough to consider this as being the onset of the 'wet season' in some form

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN: The next chance of rain and thunderstorms arrives, per latest guidance on Sunday for a portion of North and North Central Florida Florida Sunday or Monday afternoon from near Daytona Beach and through the interior of North Central Florida...possibly clipping the east coast as far south as the Cape area. This is mainly in prelude to a 'supposed' cool front that is expected to from off the coast of North Carolina. The front will then provide a better chance for showers and thunder across even the Exceptional Drought Stricken portion of Southeast Florida the following day. The exact day(s) will need refinement..but it  does look that this will occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame (perhaps Tuesday).


Any reader of the author's posting will know that this is fun news to arrive home from after being in the Plains for two weeks. South Florida needs some rain in any form!


After this point the remainder of the week for South Florida could be dry, other than perhaps some morning ocean showers.


START OF THUNDERSTORM SEASON ("Wet Season"): Getting within range now on the GFS to NEXT weekend, the GFS is trending for the long awaited ( by some) thunderstorm season that Floridian's have long become familiar with. The pattern currently depicted would favor both coasts from time to time, although implications are to favor the East Side of the state for late afternoon/early evening activity, as well as the west coast earlier in the day.  


TROPICS: No threat of any tropical activity is being portrayed by the GFS at this time within a reasonable time frame worth mention.

Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) - Dubbed Tropical Invest To Impact North Central Today

9:30AM Radar image from WeatherTap shows a mesocscale convective vortex (MCV) approaching North Florida from the ENE. This system generated several days ago over the North Central Plains States and move east and south with time, making full circle area a high pressure system that has been responsible for the persistent on shore flow regime.

TODAY: A vortex, dubbed an Invest from the tropical school of thought, is approaching the North half of the state today. This system crossed, believe it or not, the Chicago area several days ago. Not particularly sure why this was dubbed an Invest (an area of investigation in tropical interests)...


The area highlighted in white can be on the lookout out for lightning storms and rain with potentially strong to marginally severe wind gusts in the strongest of storms.  This area will arrive before peak heating on the east side of the state, so instability will not be of much concern had this arrived in the late afternoon hours instead. There is quite a bit of lightning with this system, that seems now will impact mainly those living along and north of SR 520.

Lightning image, courtesy of Weathertap.com. This area is moving toward
the WSW-W..with the center located roughly directly east of Daytona Beach at the time of this post.

The center of the 'vortex' appears could come very close to making 'landfall' near Cape Canaveral before noon and be clear of the immediate east coast within an hour or two after noon time. 

Upper level winds should spread anvil thunderstorm tops across to the west side of the state, so that it seems unlikely that any further surface heating during the course of the day will be subdued, preventing further thunderstorm strengthening, if not weakening shortly after impacting the east coast. It appears those most likely to be affected will be the St. Augustine area south toward Cocoa Beach, with rainfall as far south as Sebastian Inlet along the east coast between 10:30am and 1pm while spreading westward with time.

Love Bugs Sends Author Far Away Due to Allergies

Due to on-going pesky love bugs, the author will be fleeing to somewhere in the blue area for a while. This weather forecast blog for North Central through South Central Florida will return in June once this portion of the season has cleared the area and humans are once again free to roam the region.

Over 400,000Spectators Disappointed, Severe Weather Forecasters Relieved

WEATHER PATTERN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT INDICATED TOMORROW. TWO IMPULSES NOTED BY ARROWS.
TWO DISTURBANCES (the "Ls" TO MOVE ESE THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST, THEN OUT OF THE PICTURE ENTIRELY BY FRIDAY

TODAY: Why the Title today? The Launch of the second to last Space Shuttle went today with out a hitch, but it could have been MUCH worse...and not have gone at all. In fact the Shuttle could have been damaged irreparably had weather conditions been a bit different between today and tomorrow.  ***See below for more.


 Instead though, due to how the systems through the atmosphere were aligned, they brought on another disaster of very large societal ramifications rather than meteorological. Folks from far and wide, from across the globe who spent vast amounts of money/time/resources just to be there to watch...had hopes dashed 5-10 seconds after lift off. Only those right within the secured area got a good view..the percentage of which is likely 10% of all those who were in the area.
To ADD to the impeccable timing of this "event of disappointing proportions", the clouds had cleared to the crowds delight, only to move back in during the final 3 minutes prior to lift off!! How is that possible?  Crowd control was out en masse too. Lesson learned obviously from the previous launch. 

It is easy to see where the arrow is pointing the contrail produced by the contrail ice crystals (over simplification), but also easier to see is the deck of clouds all around the launch area. In fact, now that I looked closer, you can see the ripples going through the top of the cloud deck indicative of the stronger winds aloft accompanying that patch of moisture!!

How could this  meteorological situation have resulted in severe weather that would damage the Shuttle? Note those two upper level lows. Winds aloft, for this time of year associated with them, are not at all uncommon like those we'd expect to find in January or February. Additionally, upper level disturbances are embedded in this flow that could trigger severe weather. But we are now in May...very very rare situation.


 So where's the storms?  For one, there is not enough moisture for deep convection,  just enough to generate clouds. What ever ample moisture there is for storms is getting stretched to far thin out flat rather than up.  The winds are entirely unidirectional with height..so there is no vertical turning, only horizontal stretching. This adds some lift, but not at the lowest levels.  Instead, the forces combined generates  period of clouds  


There are  no low level boundaries as well, including a mere sea breeze. Only a cold front that moved through near sunset last night..but it too was parallel to the flow, so there was no upward forcing at the lowest levels (aptly termed 'convergence').  Had these winds been associated with a surface front aligned differently with more moisture, this could have ended up being an near epic severe weather outbreak to at least include large, damaging hail (for instance) for this two day period. But as we can see...nothing is happening. 


One thing, we are close to setting record low temperatures across the state in the mornings. Followed by very pleasant a drier afternoons. It is a bit breezy too, but nothing beyond improving kite flying and water related wind sport. Certainly not destructive to build structures.


The first wave of moisture arrived this morning along and ahead of the first surge of stronger winds aloft. This moisture / wind team produced the cloud deck that simultaneously hampered clear sky conditions while dampening the otherwise energized hordes of on-lookers who arrived to Central Florida to view the launch. Even the announcer I heard on the radio while hoping to get some good video was awe inspired, until, that is, I heard her exclaim, " It's is AWESOME..INCREDIBLE...(pause) Oh, it went into the clouds"  ;-(. (a few times).


EARLY THIS EVENING/TUESDAY: The next of disturbed areas will pass across Central Florida near sunset. During that time I'm expecting cloud coverage could again increase. If it were day time it would be more so, and winds would pick up more as well. But it will be perfectly timed to have little impact other than to sustain the winds a bit longer than one would otherwise expect, and bring some more clouds in. This will mostly occur after dark, and won't be noticed. No rain.


WEDNESDAY: The second low will rotate around the first as it lifts north and east. This low will again bring even stronger winds aloft and even more lift. It is also accompanied by a shot of moisture. This one will mostly impact South Florida to the degree that showers could be in their midst at sunrise through early afternoon. Due to timing of this disturbance (early day), and no sea breeze, I do not expect there would be thunderstorms. There is even more moisture associated with this system as well as some accumulating at lower levels, temperatures aloft are expected to warm..so instability will be limited especially considering the time of day (early)


But note: We can't really know what the impacts of this disturbance can be since it has not interacted with any other land mass other than well to the north in much cooler air and under an altogether configuration, perhaps that chance of a quick moving storm should not be entirely discounted. However, the chances of such as extremely slim; not entirely negligible. The concern with storms, or even the expected (as of time today) rain showers, would be wind in and near rain showers...perhaps thunderstorms (as noted). For the most part, by current guidance, thunderstorms almost could not occur at all, but if one little thing were to change..


THURSDAY: Big pattern change as the the passive twin lows lift further north and start to open up. This will open the gate for another system on the West Coast of the U.S. to spread rapidly into the Plains.


At this time, it looks like it will be too much, too fast...And ram into the ridge behind the depart "Team Low". Uniformly directed winds could spark some severe weather here or there initially, but it looks a bit like the biggest concern will be more rains to the already flooded Mississippi River Valley Basin. Just one single drop more is not needed there.  It is forecast to get back logged behind the previous one..which makes perfect sense...unless, it completely punches into and through the ridge ahead of it, at which point all meteorological chaos could ensue. Bears watching, but as of now...the trend seems to be set in stone. Will team 'Tornado Hunt" on The Weather Channel get to see good storms. My best guess is that they stop chasing rainbows and head to Texas ..namely Abilene to Del Rio to Dallas south of the Red River. The dam might be jammed, but the back log ends up well to the south at the bottom of the bowl.


WHY ARE ALL THESE SYSTEMS DOING THE SAME THING? It a big huge blocking pattern of Epic proportions. Just like the drought in Texas and other parts of the country (which by the way is expanding). Just like the Epic Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley Basin (and I do not think that has ended yet...there will be a brief reprieve though), and just like the EPIC Tornado Out Break in the Deep South recently. Everything is over-inflated and over blown. I think we can blame  this blocking pattern's team mate as well. IT'S A DOUBLE BLOCKING BLOCK OF ALL BLOCKS. Another stubborn block..over Siberia (of all places).  What will it take to break the pattern.  I've nicknamed the one over Siberia, because of its fixture, "Blockhead". Even though it could be called something more appropriate (perhaps vulgar), being as stubborn as a 'mule'.


My best guess after all is said and done,  having whittled through listening to forecaster  fails, after repeated long range model FAILS...my guess,...is longer days and the hence, warmer times.  Eventually, something minute as an atom hiccup could disrupt this delicate balance and send the ball rolling which would expand so logarithmically fast it would blow an Atom Bomb's mind.

Late Season Cold Front To Clear North Central At Sunset

SYNOPSIS: A cold front near to just north of the I-4 will sink south and east during the course of today.
Preceding the front will be pleasant SWS winds at 10-20mph at times under sunny to partly cloudy skies.
The front will lie very close to the Beach Line, the Great Divide, at sunset.

EARLY MORNING LOCATION OF FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING WHEN  WE SAVED THE IMAGE. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE BEACHLINE AT SUNSET. I BELIEVE THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH EAST FLORIDA WILL HAVE BEEN TOO STABILIZED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IT  APPEARS COULD OCCUR EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF A LAKE SHADOW, WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER NOON TO 7PM.

FORECAST FOR TODAY: Florida is still embedded within an unseasonably deep 500 mb trough; the configuration of the trough axis is now no longer negatively tilted as was the case yesterday and the day befre, but is becoming more oriented North / South..or will be by Monday while the front gets alinged with the flow aloft  and sinks off South Florida by later Tuesday


There is a chance of a shower or two very close to the front, mainly on the east side of the state after noon time near Daytona toward North Brevard. As the afternoon wears on toward peak heating, it is possible a thunderstorm could occur very close toward the east coast, but more than likely any thunderstorm to occur over North Central Florida will only be a rain shower until moving offshore. The best time for that to occur today will be as the boundary enters North Brevard between 4-7 pm from Orange County toward Port St John to Cocoa Beach just ahead of the boundary. Otherwise, there is no boundaries to 'play' with today in the absence of the Sea Breeze. Should the C-Breeze Develop the chance of thunder along the very immediate coast increases, but that would still be within the given time frame and locations. There is no chance of rain once the front has cleared, and for the most part, the chance of the sea breeze today is very very low. Highs today will be in the low 80Fs, with the air beginning to dry out some.


Elsewhere, there is a chance of a thunderstorm, which would be stronger, in Palm Beach County after 2pm due to the Lake Okeechobee and perhaps far SW -SE Florida around the Lake Shadow and warmer temperatures. It does not appear there will be a sea breeze there either, but the chance does exist, and is the most likely candidate.


BEYOND: A secondary front accompanied by very strong winds aloft will cross Central and South Florida during Monday and Tuesday. However, like today...despite how strong the wind aloft is with impulses and vorticity passing over head..moisture is very limited and low level forcing with what moisture there is would likely only result in clouds below the stronger winds above them. Some showers, at this time, are possible at almost any time. The best chance of thunder would be over far South Florida, but that chance looks very low as well due to limited, although more that north or south central, moisture.


THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK will be dry with very cool mornings for this time of year.  for two morning. Could see some mid-upper 50Fs on Wednesday morning when the second front has cleared with one day or two of highs just below 80F to 82F.  The air over Florida will begin to moderate from South to North ahead of another approaching front for next weekend. Some showers and thunder might occur this this front...but we'll leave it as partly cloudy until the writing is on the wall and the timing of its arrival, assuming it even does, draws closer.

Potent Storms From West To East Possible Today - Isolated Hail Would be Likely

LATEST INSTABILITY INDEX VALUES: HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL, LOWER SOUTHEAST BUT STILL VERY UNSTABLE THERE. STORMS MOST PROBABLE IN THE BLACK LINES. LEAST LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA INTO A PORTION OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN PURPLE. WITHIN WHITE, COULD GET CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF SPELL IN ISOLATED POCKETS. SEE BELOW FOR WHY.

SYNOPSIS: A large upper level low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. is slow to move out due to a blocking pattern. A cold front has cleared the western Panhandle, but might not clear the peninsula fully until late Tuesday. Until that time, periods of unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms can occur..separated by periods of pleasant weather and less hot temperatures than days past.

TODAY: THE FRONT IS THE BLUE LINE. A COMBINATION THERMAL/PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FORMING AS A TYPE. WEAK SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO BE FORMING NEAR WEST PALM, OR IS ANTICIPATED. IF SO, THIS TROUGH WOULD ALLOW A SEABREEZE TO FORM NORTH OF THE LOW.

 NET RESULT...CLASH OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES CLOSE TO OR EAST OF I-95 UNDER VERY COLD AIR ALOFT

TODAY: As shown in the above image, a cold front is still far away from North Central to South Florida. Unlike the winter months when they blast through, this one will take at least 60-72 hours to push through. Another impulse (upper level disturbance) is expected to cross the Peninsula Early tomorrow, potentially bearing a 'pre-disturbance' trough as well..


Meanwhile...


The west coast sea breeze will be dominant today within the synoptic scale pattern of west to east motion. Only far South Florida is not within this pattern...with the weather down in Broward, Dade, and Southern Palm Beach County being dictated by more of a sub-tropical nature. 


A disturbance is FORECAST to move across the state today. Within it could be isolated to possible scattered thunderstorm activity. If so, (still tapping my fingers and waiting)...storms will strengthen with time as the develop after 2-3pm as the cross the trough shown above. Some of these storms in isolated fashion could contain small coin sized hail. Unlike yesterday, the sea breeze IF IT DEVELOPS would be East of  Orlando Metro and the Airport, but I see that the NWS might be putting that area on somewhat of a 'Heads Up" mode for hail and/or stronger wind gusts due to the passage of proximity of storms in both MLB and MCO. JAX has some severe storms approaching already...this was indicated to occur my most (but not all) model guidance).


As we see in the first image, I've somewhat 'color coded' where storms might become stronger and then strongest mainly along and east of I-95. CAVEAT: Much better news if the east coast sea breeze does NOT develop. It is almost hard to envision that it will not though, given that on the beach in Cape Canaveral the west wind is only about 4 mph. My initial line of thinking is that at least a weak sea-breeze would form after 1-2pm..if not sooner given the current conditions. 


Dew Point temperatures across Central Florida are running in the low to nearing mid-70Fs in pockets. It is a bit cooler so far today, but it's still early. Some of this moisture will hold in the normally warmer afternoon heat, and reserve it for release today in the form of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The higher the CAPE..the bigger the release. Vertical Atmospheric Upward Velocities (VVs) are being forecast to be strong..and in one instance..were forecast to continue upward right up to nearly the jet stream level. This would keep downward descending parcels, i.e. rain drops)..from falling to the ground until they are heavy enough to do so. Morning soundings are showing a dry mid-level layer..adding to the mid-level buoyancy (lifting mechanism).  


1) If the sea breeze does indeed form..and that is questionable...storms could become severe in some areas as they begin to the most western impingement of the sea breeze front. One model indicates very high precipitation totals just east of Central Florida in the very late afternoon hours...indicating the activity will collapse quickly and possible drop a lot of hail in the process and gusty winds out at sea. However, should the collapse occur sooner, the would translate on the coastal communities.


2). If the sea breeze does not develop..storms would not be nearly as strong with all potential negative factors greatly reduced by a very wide margin. 


3). Third..the obligatory worst case scenario. As long as there is a glimmer of doom, might as well capitalize on it. It's only a blog post anyway. If you've read this far, you'll be intrigued if nothing else: 


The sea breeze does form and is magnified around the crook of the Cape area..or Cape Bight which runs from Port Canaveral out past the lighthouse. Mesoscale (small scale) circulations would form  (like they always do in such cases) within that zone and west into Titusville, Mims or even Oak Hill toward Sanford depending on the strength of that sea breeze. This would be a concern for the region in North Brevard toward Sanford and Southern Volusia Counties. Namely because the further north one goes the stronger the winds aloft area as well, which would support even yet bigger storms capable of dropping golf ball sized hail at least. I do not think that will happen, but it is something to passively watch consider there is a Shuttle Sitting on the Launch Pad.


In general, the strongest of storms, if they form, could run within the bounds noted above, or from Jacksonville to West Palm Beach. As of this time (and that could change), the Miami Metro area and Ft. Lauderdale do not in any way seem to be in a threat zone...not for today that is. This will possibly change with time in the next two days, contingent upon how much further South that big upper level trough digs south. We'll know on Tuesday.


And finally, I do have second thoughts about how virtually ever single model portrays this afternoons events. Perhaps something even more 'squirrelly" will occur near the coast, if so, most likely near the Cape area within 10 miles.


SUNDAY: Could be a stormy day over Central Florida again, but very isolated. Or, simply a bit showery with some afternoon thunder. Worst case scenario is that the storms move offshore tonight (if they even form as noted in length above) and collapse, sending an outflow boundary back to the coast. This would provide better impedance for a sea breeze to develop once again on Sunday...very sketchy though. Things have changed since last night's model runs, and I FULLY expect things to change at least two more times before the next post is made.


With that said, it would behoove "High Speed Dirt" to continue ad nauseum before today is even yet through. Much of what happens today might provide a hint as to what would occur on Sunday.


MONDAY: Between disturbances. Looks very quiet although an isolated shower or thunderstorm could occur, but only isolated and remote.


TUESDAY: South Half of Florida could have the better chance of showers and thunder, but it is very very sketchy what form the precipitation will take. Could it snow there?! (just checking to see if you read this far). 


 Best chance of thunder appears to be far South Florida despite the fact that the strongest winds aloft, which are pretty impressive for this time of year, will be over Central and South Florida. If the precipitation shown in guidance is thunder storms..they could easily be severe. Time will tell..I'm on the cusp of very uncertain about Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday...the coast is clear, literally...SE Florida? Maybe Miami Metro.

Low Confidence (Location/Chances) Of Late Afternoon/Early Evening Storms In Florida Today

ALL CONDITIONAL STORM CHANCE AREAS: Chance of rain showers or thunderstorms within the green bounds, most likely area is within the light blue and lavender, with the peak conditional chance along the east coast in the yellow highlight/dark green areas (see below). Another area not shown is along the West Coast from near Brooksville and south toward Naples. Also not seen here is an area extending toward Miami in SE Florida.

OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: As is always the case and as printed on the web page at 
http://www.highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com  all thoughts are of the author's own. Please refer to local official outlets (my most preferred is the National Weather Service until an 'event' (storm) develops), then your local televised news channel,  for the latest officially released information for where storms are located and expected to move toward.


TODAY: First of most importance there are three items to consider: 


(1) Nearly every forecast model is in disagreement with where rain/thunderstorms will develop today. It does appear that there will be an isolated  very strong storm or two or 3 today within the 'green' today, which is almost the entire state. The most likely area appears to be in the center of the state.  Even timing is an issue. One chain of thought calls for early afternoon activity which I had dismissed since sunrise, yet they are still showing the possibility. As of now it is supposed to be raining where I sit (for example) based on the short term local WRF model. Yet there is not a storm building anywhere in the state, with some cumulus along/over SE Florida and some that tried around the Big Bend but were snuffed out by high cirrus clouds.


 Note the two areas along the east coast: Those are outliers, but important. Important because if storms do develop and/or move into those locations, they could be severe, along I-95 toward US-1 late today after 6pm if conditions exist for such at that time. How/why? Temperatures aloft at 700mb are expected by one model to drop by several degrees after 4 or 5pm. Will that happen? Time will tell. But at least we have been forewarned of this possibility.


(2) Will there be many storms at all today in fact?  The atmosphere looked very unstable since sunrise, observed by the cloud types (did not need a model to see that).  However, the approaching disturbance to affect the state tomorrow is shielding cirrus clouds across the state, limiting  the atmosphere's instability, and in some model portrayals, by a big margin..significantly so.  I do believe that even still,at least sea breeze storms will form in the interior after 5pm.


The reason for the bigger threat along the East Side is caused by coastal low level helicity (sort of like little whirl pools or eddies that form along the sea breeze, which is closely paralleling the coast today. It is the near parallel motion that sets the eddies going. When a storm approaches them..they tend to 'jack up'..especially just east of I-95. If this situation does develop, it would not be until after 5:30 or even 6:30pm...and in full force east of I-95 around 6-7pm.   


(3) Lastly, there is a chance that mid-evening post thunderstorms could develop (or continue) in the favored inland location  as well as closer to the coast in South Central Florida (toward South Brevard/Indian River Counties). This is very remote but still possible. This storm would for after the sea breeze has relaxed.


(4) There is a big change to occur sometime after 4pm with wind fields as well as some lowering in mid-level temperatures. This might be throwing a lot of models of, and will affect (if this is real)..where the heaviest activity will occur).  It may also be why the weather is so benign this early afternoon. Nothing to happen until that time it occurs (if it does).  Since that time has not arrived yet...it's a waiting game. Waiting to see how long the high clouds stick around (which looks almost certain)....and if those mid-level wind fields indeed to change so quickly.


LASTLY: In Looking at the latest hourly information availabe which included (the mental analysis/picture) a vast variety of parameters, the most likely area as of 1pm for activity today is toward the center of the state, with a slight lean toward the east coast in  Volusia/North Brevard (South Florida is a different story altogether, and beyond the scope for one post). It is down there though that the first signs of an approaching rain chance are manifesting this hour.  Should the high clouds persist or thicken with time, the chance of rain diminishes significantly everywhere, other than perhaps toward South Florida, with maybe just some showers and a thunderstorm or two inland of non-strong character. Note though. No model shows a 'dead late day'...yet.


SATURDAY: The Storm Prediction Center already has the Panhandle and North Florida in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather tomorrow. In Florida, that would be mainly for hail. There is uncertainty though even there since persistent cloud cover would limit instability if it is there from early morning toward noon. It may be that Central and South Florida will end up with the stronger weather when all is said and done. I'm inclined to lean in that direction.


SUNDAY-TUESDAY: More chances for showers and some strong to severe storms will exist on 1, 2, or all days, depending where in the state one is located. After tomorrow, the Panhandle is 'out' since that area will be behind a cold front in more stable air.  The most favored area on Sunday appears to be for a portion of South Central to South Florida. But that too may change. Earlier guidance indicated the showers would begin over night into Sunday morning, and could be 'in the area' all day. Along and South of the BeachLine to Miami. 


That, plus we might not have a sea-breeze. If this indeed is the case, Sunday could just be mostly cloudy with showers ...and some thunderstorms from early afternoon to evening possible (perhaps). A lot of what occurs Sunday - Early Tuesday is contingent upon a combination of the surface winds and timing/passage of embedded disturbances aloft. All wet chances abate by late Tuesday in South Florida.

Rains Chances Slowly Increase For Florida...But When?

The BIGGEST Player for much of North America Today through Friday seems to be that big Double Whammy System in the Atlantic Off New England. It is barely moving if at all this morning. We can see in this image the third of three small MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complexes) that moved off the Coast of South Carolina since this morning. These are narrowly missing Florida, and the storms associated with them can be seen on The Weather Channel here in East Central Florida.

CLOSE UP OF THE SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND.
THESE TWO AREAS ARE STAYING IN PLACE...ROTATING
IN PLACE DISCRETELY, WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER, NORTHERN ONE. NO MODEL SHOWS THESE AS SEPARATE ENTITIES!!

THE THREE MCS COMPLEXES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST SOUTHERN ONE WAS VERY ACTIVE SHORTLY BEFORE I SAVED THIS IMAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST AND OVER WEST FLORIDA IS BLOCKING THESE FROM REACHING THE STATE

TODAY'S VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR MAYBE THUNDER. EAST CENTRAL WOULD BE AFTER 6PM. THE ZIG ZAG LINE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE FIRST  IMAGE ABOVE BUT NOT IN THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE NEAR ORLANDO IS THERMALLY INDUCED (FROM HEAT)

SYNOPSIS: Big blocking low pressure system (s) off the New England/Mid-Atlantic Coast and high pressure over the NE Gulf at time, as has been the case the past 48 hours. Little has changed other than that the low pressure area is enlarging. This system is proving to be quite the forecaster's quandary for not only Florida but the Central Plains states today. This will continue to be the case until it moves..somewhere..which should be a bit more south..then east to northeast beginning later Friday as a system in the Central Plains today  finally gives it the boot.  The Central Plains states system will be forced to 'dig' toward the ESE-SE in days ahead, and in turn force the high pressure area near Florida that is creating all of the hot, dry afternoons to move south and east with time. At time, it appears fairly safe to say this process will begin on Friday but that to could change given the now unforecast/unanalyzed strength of the Atlantic System by the models. This system is indirectly affecting forecasts in the Plains as well, making what looked initially to be a very active severe weather day there not 'quite so bad'...but still 'bad'.


TODAY/THURSDAY: Until that time, the best chance of any showers or thunder will be in the areas drawn above, with an outlier on the South Side of Lake Okeechobee.


It is interesting that a lot of the reason we have not had rain is due to warm air in the mid -levels. Per the latest short term model, in disagreement with the other models run this morning, this warm 'cap' is to disappear this afternoon; however, moisture is too meager in general (PWAT too  low) to produce rain. I can tell by looking outside that the warm air aloft hasn't broken down yet over Brevard due to the haze. Perhaps even the short term model was a bit too hasty in removing this 'cap' of warm air.


Would like to add at this point, the for several days now the high pressure was supposed to break down, with some models (all of them) showing increased rain chances starting yesterday or Tuesday. But that low of the NE U.S. Coast is stronger and more stubborn than any model or person for that matter could foresee. Remember in the post two days ago, this possibility was alluded to? It was mentioned in could even end up drifting right over the state. That too, can still happen going into Friday, thus..the chance of no rain is always there until proven otherwise.


How much of glitch in any forecast going into the weekend will this have? Not too much, but the timing will be an issue. Timing, that is, of when the Atlantic System makes a move.


Two boundaries today. 1) a bit of a trough axis will lay across far N. Brevard County today until mid-late afternoon. We'll know when it breaks over East Central at the coast when we gain an on-shore wind component. In the upper levels moisture is slowly working south from far NE Florida and will build up behind this boundary. Another spoke, or boundary, lies further north toward JAX which will move little. Both of these boundaries could act as focal points for a small precipitation  'chance' later today...but the southern one near Brevard will rely on the wind shift..and that would have to happen at just the right time. If it happens too soon the area will be scoured out by subsidence behind the boundary with the land/sea breeze meeting each other over an area further to the NW where the air is too dry after day time heating removes the low level moisture in that area...caveat..with that boundary in place near North Brevard..just enough moisture could accumulate near it. Thus, the rain chance. Anything to form, if the timing is just right, would probably only be a rain shower though unless something very magical occurs beyond the scope of the laws of physics.


The same scenario will likely play out tomorrow as well, but a change will be in progress.


FRIDAY: Based on guidance, Saturday would be a transition time when the Plains system works far enough east to dislodge the high pressure over the NE Gulf. This would allow more moisture to work in, and with cold air aloft and late afternoon seabreeze / land breeze collision to occur along the east coast of the state late in the day. Better chance of thunderstorms on Friday...but isolated. However, forward motion...and more importantly to Florida, the direction of that forward motion owing to whatever the Atlantic System does..will make a big difference for the state down the road to 'recovery'.


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Given the blocking pattern and it's evil history (for forecasters), the weekend will be interesting to see how it unfolds. COULD be that there will be rounds of rain/thunder chances at just about anytime, favoring the east side but not always. It gets more difficult when it is forecast that the sea breeze on the east coast will no longer develop. There will be cold air aloft and no capping, but lack of a trigger and any low level boundary collisions as well, in the presence of no forecast upper level disturbance could result in just lots of clouds and some showers. On the other hand, any unforeseen disturbance embedded in this "yet to develop pattern' could contain all kinds of little disturbances to generate very strong thunderstorms. At this time, it appears either Saturday or Sunday would be that day. ...keeping in mind that often any kind of blocking pattern is often hastened foreword too quickly by models..so that time frame could very well end up being Monday/Tuesday...or anywhere in between.