There Lies a POTENTIAL for Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Strong, East Central Florida Today

As anticipated, the upper level low remains in place east of Florida as noted above. NNE winds on the backside of this low  are advecting dense cirrus clouds southward, along with being created by the winds and moist air aloft stand-alone. I expect these clouds to persist in various degrees all day today, with filtered sunshine. More breaks over South Florida. This low is expected to move across the state late today, tonight, and begin to wash out by Friday over the Gulf.

SYNOPSIS AND SET-UP/FORECAST REASONING:  Upper level low remains off the East Florida Coast. Circulation well aloft at jet airplane flying levels is from the NNE, and is pulling high cirrus clouds SSW across Florida. Both the moisture and the winds alone are reason for the clouds, as well as thunderstorm tops off South Carolina, like yesterday, being sheared off and picked off by this wind aloft. There might be some thin breaks off and on over Central and North Florida...but not truly significantly so.


On the other-hand, the clouds are much thinner over the southern 1/3 of the state. The surface ridge has lifted to North Central Florida, and will probably work further north during the day. But, the mid-level ridge axis', which help determine storm steering (direction storms will move IF PRESENT), are located near Lake Okeechobee. What this equates to is a storm motion in the direction shown by the blue arrows.  Moisture is still ample for storm generation without question over most of South Central through North Florida, but there is considerable drying in the mid-levels over Southeast Florida, so rain there seems unlikely other than in  the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee.
In fact, it is the Lake that might be the necessary ingredient to set the wheels in motion today, combined with the sea breeze. Granted, winds over South Florida are already a bit Southeasterly, but that is gradient flow. The true sea breeze might be delayed until around 1pm from Vero toward the Cape area, while in the meantime the Lake Breeze will also be at play on both shores..spreading a shadow toward the NNW. Showers and storms could form on either side of the shadow, and begin to interact with the East Coast Sea-breeze.


ASSUMPTIONS: First and foremost, one HUGE assumption was made today. That being, that despite the high clouds being present, heating alone which is not being hindered too much combined with these breezes will help generate storms. If that is NOT going to be the case today...then the chance of rain goes very very low except right close to wind boundaries.  Mid-level instability though seems very good today, and the KSC sounding came in this morning with cooler mid-level temperatures than it has for several days near 7.5C rather than 10C. This should aid in mid-level lift. This combined with lower level lift provided by breeze collisions could lift moist parcels via FORCING at the low levels and thermodynamically through the mid-levels, which could overcome any hindering factors (i.e., high level cloud cover).


With the above said, I'm drawn to the latest mesoscale analysis page depicting the low level vorticity building up along the SE Florida coast due to primarily stronger SE winds advecting up the coast and interacting with the landmass. This vorticity should work into the Cape area by mid-afternoon as the sea breeze develops, and provide ample fuel for further lift at the low levels.

The light blue lines show vorticity. Forecasts show this to increase further and work inland toward all  of South Central and Central Florida by late afternoon with the sea breeze conflicting with the SSW to NNE steering flow just above the ground. This will occur over the larger inland lakes such as Lake Kissimmee and Lake Harney in Seminole county.

TODAY: Thus, with the above stated...and do not forget that BIG ASSUMPTION...believe that thunderstorms could form first mostly over South Central Florida near the east coast and combine with the lake affect: showers/and storms, and spreading NNE into Central Florida and increase in number during the mid-afternoon, primarily after 3pm. These should be able to work into North Central Portions, where there could also be a merger of the East and West Coast sea-breeze toward Flagler County.  


Believe that far North Florida might be in for more of a one shot deal, whereas storms further south might be able to regenerate, at least for a while and affect mainly the eastern 1/2 of Central and North Central Florida ..waning in deliberation headed toward 8pm as the sun sets. Showers and storms could linger until around 9pm though either  over the interior or as they exit the east coast north of Brevard County.


Storms will be capable of frequent lightning and wind gusts as would be expected in stronger thunderstorms up to 45-50mph in very isolated cases..although even stronger is not entirely inconceivable in a remote, random chance if conditions come together just right. I'm toying with watching for the possibility of waterspouts as well along the near-shore and intracoastal waters of Brevard and Volusia Counties, although this is currently not being considered by the NWS. Just something to consider today, especially after 4:30pm as the sea breeze could become more unidirectional with those waterways...or what I've fondly started to refer to as 'upwind the intracoastal' or 'upwind' for short. That is not an official term, if not possibly illegitimate, but it sounds good.


THURSDAY: Done with the fun -n-games as winds start to become more unidirectional for the ESE-SE. There could be enough moisture, for late morning toward noon time showers to form along and west of the intracoastal of Brevard and Volusia. These would readily move to the west by early afternoon, after which point, rain chances look non-existent for most of Florida except perhaps north of I-10 and toward SW Florida and maybe up toward Tampa on Saturday/Sunday.


FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST: Instant replay as stated yesterday of the on-going trend this Summer of 2011. Another trough to dig down into the SE States...Monday looks to be a good day for SW and NE Florida with a ridge axis over Central Florida..with less coverage but still some storms favoring more toward the East north of Brevard but mostly just west of I-95 most everywhere. 


NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Ridges drop toward Lake Okeechobee if not further south on Wednesday, for greater state wide rain chances. This variation of ridge placement to the south has been emphasized to continue into the second week of August.


TROPICS: In the long range, although this 'troughing' is expected to persist into the second week of August, the tropics might also be starting to become a bit more active, with already a tropical wave being outlooked in the long range by the GFS weather forecast model to approach the Lesser Antilles are already proven to exist via satellite imagery. 


The tropics could play into the equation and either increase or significantly decrease rain chances heading toward next Thursday/Friday time frame. Otherwise, there is the Invest  area (very active) approaching the Yucatan Peninsula today. The jury is out in regard to where it will go and how strong it will be when it gets there. So far, I've seen anything from an open wave to a tropical storm. From what I can tell, on average it seems to be going to impact the Houston area or just south of there..although guidance diverges to anywhere toward Louisiana (which I'm discounting at this time)...toward Brownsville as a much weaker system.


In the rough cut for today..again..on the assumption storms can form by early afternoon:

FINAL CONCLUSION: Based on the assumption that storms can form, the heaviest rainfall totals due to heavier stand alone storms combined with some training should occur in the lavender area. Stronger Storms could occur in the red area, and thunder in the orange as noted on the annotated captioning of this hand drawn best guess in a worst case scenario for rain haters.

Scattered Thunder South Central and North Early This Afternoon

Upper Level Divergence in NE Flow on the backside of a TUTT Trough is pulling cloud tops SE toward Florida from thunderstorms off the Carolinas. Divergence with these winds is enhancing the cloud cover. This same type scenario MIGHT be present tomorrow (Wednesday as well)

TODAY: Just a quick post today. Activity has gotten underway within an environment that is very suitable for thunderstorms today. However, high clouds are present, as noted above, which will prevent storms from forming underneath them. Showers and thunder are well underway as I type...and so I've highlighted some areas that appear will be affected from noon through 4pm.  Some of this activity MIGHT become stronger along US1 in Brevard County south toward Indian River and St. Lucie County.  However, high clouds will be moving in during the course of the afternoon to preclude as such...as it seems now. Sea breezes have set up, but are remaining very close to the coast. I've highlighted in red where some stronger storms could occur after 4pm. Much of the remained of the state today has already been worked over with early day rains, so cloud debris and more incoming cirrus from the NE should shut down the thunderchances earlier than normal other than right near JAX and perhaps NE of Lake Okeechobee. Winds are expected to become SW before dark...so debris clouds and light rain might pass over some locations later this afternoon toward dark as well just about anywhere over Eastern Portions of Central and North Florida.

High clouds continue, with no end in site. The most likelihood for a stronger storm is noted in Red..but even those are questionable. Activity has shown quite a bit of lightning that has moved across Polk and Osceola Counties the past hour.

WEDNESDAY; Same deal applies, with conditions favorable for storms. The TUTT trough is forecast to retrograde across the state, which might put North Florida in the higher cirrus. A lot will depend on what kind of storm activity comes off the Carolinas later today and tonight.


THURSDAY-SUNDAY: Much drier (actually dry) throughout this time period with the exception of the West and SW Coast, but even those areas might not see much activity with possibly no sea breeze development.


FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST/TROPICS: There has been an on-going trend, and might add "theme" for this time frame in August. Another trough is forecast to dig down the East Coast in the mid levels ..this places the interior toward the East Side favorable for thunder storms. However, there is the ever present fly in the ointment. It is possible our next named Tropical Storm will form east of the Carolinas, potentially impacting Bermuda along the much weakened surface boundary that barely shows up over the Southeast states, but does off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This would be akin to how Bret and Cindy formed. From that point, there are signs we could again see some cirrus over Florida like today and yesterday, but so far ...esp. if a tropical storm forms..that chances would be absent.

Isolated Late Afternoon - Mid Evening Thunder Possible

CURRENT CONDITIONS: This shows very unfavorable conditions for storms to form over Central Florida as of noon. ..the blue area. This area has been slowly eroding since early morning. Also shown is some stronger thunder along the Big Bend moving east around 10 mph.  The seabreeze has not yet formed north of Vero Beach but probably will shortly. Cloud cover along the east coast is being exasperated by upper level divergence associated with a TUTT low off the East coast of Florida. This is also creating sinking air, creating more forecast issues for today in regard to anything beyond rain showers. Otherwise, the atmosphere is unstable with ample moisture between 1.7" - 2.0" of PWAT, mostly north of the northern blue line

TRANSITION DAY - CURRENT: The atmosphere is unstable today with sufficient moisture for scattered storm activity. But there is a problem. A TUTT low (tropical upper level tropospheric trough) is located off the Florida East coast. Circulation on the descending air side of the low has spread across eastern Central and starting to reach SE Florida in NE winds aloft (at jet stream level). This low is not forecast to move much today. In that regard, I am tempted to say, NO THUNDER today over Central Florida..at least not until after 8pm. However, model guidance insists on showing rainshower activity...and that might very well be all that will occur today..with a renegade thunder chance central. Most likely Thunder will occur over North Florida from its current location toward Flagler County, as well as over SW Florida and close to Lake Okeechobee. Things could change during mid-afternoon. In fact, today is a TRANSITION DAY from the past two days.


The transition is that a mid-upper level trough and frontal boundary, which will never make it to Florida, is beginning to dig down the East coast just offshore in the upper levels and more toward the west in the mid-levels. During the transition the ridge axis is slowly sinking south piece meal. There is a number of things going on  today, but it is so convoluted, slow, and disorganized in doing so that it is difficult to put a finger on anything.  This leaves to resorting to the summer norm of relying on Lake and Sea Breezes for iniation in areas where conditions are favorable otherwise which is acorss North Florida and Near Lake Okeechobee through mid Afternoon.

This is the latest satellite image. Mid-high clouds are continuously forming on the back side of the TUTT low off the east coast. These are spreading SSW toward Lake Okeechobee. WHOOPS. Maybe that area isn't so favorable for development afterall. The air down that way is also most dry.. This leaves us with North Florida through at least the first half of the afternoon

TODAY: With so many unfavorable parameters in play being 1) A cap still in place at 1pm ( 2) warm air in the mid levels with 700mb coming in at 10C (3) Cloud cover over Lake Okeechobee 4)Sinking air behind the offshore low...it is easier to argue for no thunder rather than for it..other than over North Florida which is experiencing none of the negative factors 5) Delayed Seabreeze likely leading to no sea breeze collision other than over SW and NE Florida (like yesterday). I have drawn in a wishful thinking area for rain and thunder activity today for Central, but the entire area encompassing Central Florida is pure speculation, and not applicable, if ever, until after 4pm lasting through 9pm.

Green is where an isolated shower could from, orange isolated thunder, and red some stronger thunder (any of which would be brief except maybe North Florida).

Why it could rain or thunder Central: As noted, today is a transition day. Often these transitions happen either slower or faster than anticipated. In the case of today's sketched in precipitation, that was opting on the faster side, although as of 1pm  I'm not seeing it happen. Essentially, the make or break point is going to occur between 2-4pm when Lake Breezes and sea breezes have formed and are underway. It will depend on the air mass above those breezes and where/when they meet and what the air mass above those areas is like that will determine the rain chance later today. There is the remote chance that some of the instability will remain bottled up until after dark, at which point a storm could form very close to the East Coast from Daytona to Vero Beach. These events are nearly never forecast though by guidance..and given the warm mid-level temperatures not expected to change much..the atmosphere would not be all so conducive. Best chance for a dusk toward 10pm storm would be close to the east coast and in toward Osceola County.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: There has been references to a tropical wave. This wave is to pass well south of Florida, so the only conclusive evidence I've can squeeze out for it to aid in rain chances would be some moisture being advected northward from it as it gets just SSW of the state overnight tonight in deeper SW flow at the surface and aloft. This could also begin as soon as early evening, which gives one more reason to rationalize a late evening storm somewhere, since new, incoming moisture often results in a storm during a transition.


Otherwise, warmer days beachside are in store, esp. on Tuesday with a delayed sea breeze. Increased cloud cover should offset the inland temperatures from rising above that of past days though. Not sure there will even be a seabreeze north of Port Canaveral on Tuesday, which would mean mostly showers north of that location, possibly forming into thunder as they move offshore.  Late afternoon intracoastal upwind factor could play in, for storms close to the coast of Brevard/Southern Volusia County though...with other storms favoring the east side of the state south to Boyton Beach...with widespread shower and storm activity otherwise by mid-late afternoon mainly on the east 1/2 of the state.


WEDNESDAY: We will start to transition out of Tuesday's hard set pattern just a bit by mid afternoon. This should allow sea breezes to form all along the east coast with more widespread thunder chances with cooler mid-level temperatures with a sea breeze collision from both coasts. Activity might initiate too early in the afternoon for other than very isolated stronger storms...but we'll just have to wait and see how things play out in regard to cloud cover, speed of sea breeze initiation, and which one plays out to be the fast mover (likely to be the west coast one). We might even see a bit of an organized line up of showers and storms along the west coast by noon time marching steadily eastward.


THURSDAY-MONDAY:  Next Transition will be  in full gear by early afternoon on Thursday for deep easterly flow to ensue by late evening. There could be morning and early afternoon showers and storms along the East Coast transitioning westward by mid-afternoon, with the strongest storms far interior and west side late in the day, although a few could be retained just about anywhere Central..esp. near Lake Okeechobee and into Osceola County through Lake County..western Orange county. SE Florida should end with the rains earliest.


After Thursday, things look pretty dry through the weekend- Monday for other than SW Florida.


No tropical entities are at hand, and none are expected. The tropical wave now over Cuba should wash into the Yucatan as the trough digs down the U.S. East Coast Tuesday. Things could become more active though heading into mid-August...that is climo...and hints are already in the cards for as said.

Isolated Thunderstorms, Possibly Stronger Interior and West After 4pm

Storm with Pileus Cloud Cap (pie-lee-us) off shore the Indian River County Line early This Sunday Morning

TODAY: Difficult forecast in regard to determining what could happen where...and when...for today. Like yesterday...the surface ridge axis is across Central Florida and has been wavering between right near Port Canaveral toward Titusville. Some models are taking the ridge axis abruptly north toward JAX late today, but so far that has yet to occur. Thus, I'm treating today's forecast based on current trends, but it leaves a lot to be desired due to the great uncertainty. There are some things that are a given


NOW: Sea breeze is remaining very close to the coast if there is one at all north of KSC, where a thunderstorm is now occurring near Titusville. Other showers have been along the Volusia Coast for some hours now. Otherwise, the sea breeze is forming mainly from Martin County and South and up along the Big Bend. Any collision earlier should be way up in North Florida, with another over SW Florida.  Temperatures at 500mb are colder today, but those at 700mb are about the same as yesterday. The air mass has also been moistening up since early today, which the NAM picked up on, considering South Central was relatively 'dry' earlier today.


IN SUMMARY: What it amounts to is that steering is quite light, so light south of the Ridge Axis that gradient scale steering could be overcoming by boundaries of Lake Breezes and outflows, since motion will be so slow, the steering is almost irrelevant, but it will trend toward the NE-NNE.  North of the ridge axis it is also slow but toward the WNW-NW. Same rules apply there though too. Sea breeze should stay closer to the coast North of Brevard..and be latest to penetrate away from that county south of the ridge.  With moisture slowly filling on over South Florida and slowly advecting north, could be some collisions that produce storms with frequent lightning and gusty winds, as well as high rainfall totals in select areas mainly due to the slow storm motion. I drew in a few red areas for potential hot spots for activity today...but most anywhere in the orange might see some lightning near by or at least be able to hear thunder from a not too distant storm. 


NOTE: Yesterday, many lightning strikes were observed and recorded far from actual rainfall. This will likely be the case today as well.

Note that in this image I have not accounted for outflows that might be able to generate more activity out of the eastern most bounds of the green line. it is possible closer to the ridge axis over Osceola County mainly, that activity could present itself more toward Eastern Portions there after 5 or 6pm.


MONDAY: Not much difference from today so far...with the ridge axis near the same location as today, or perhaps a bit further south toward the Indian River County Line. Moisture availability still limited, dependant upon evaporation of the marsh lands during peak heating, then cooling temperatures later in the day which decreases the temperature/dew point spread .


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Best days for the east side of the state to receive some rain almost anywhere north of Ft. Lauderdale in the afternoons. Lots of details to iron out though, especially where the moisture will be located on those days, and where or if the east coast sea breeze will even be able to develop. The area this might not be able to occur is near and north of Daytona Beach...


BEYOND: In question, but the trend has been for an east coast shut down of rain chances other than over SE Florida as the ridge lifts well north..for a bout 4-5 days. The other trend of recent days has been for much better state wide rain chances the entire first week of August.


TROPICS: Does not look like there will be any tropical concerns through the first 10 days of August.

Cruising North on I-95 South of the Titusville/SR 50 Exit

Isolated Strong to Marginally Severe Storms Possible South Central Interior Late Today

Saturday Morning Sunrise as showers pass along the Gulf Stream waters just offshore

TODAY: Somewhat of a tricky forecast today considering how things have been molding toward since early morning. The tendencies of the level of instability and slightly increased moisture (more than anticipated earlier),  adumbrates that strong to severe thunderstorms could be in the offing today for a select location in SW and South Central Florida, possibly working even further north by early evening.


NOW: Flat out,, instability as of noon over portions of South Central Florida is extreme. That is, it is extremely unstable with CAPE approaching 5000 j/kg, and lifted indexes up to -9C. These values are on the far side of the scale from stable and up thru unstable to very unstable...higher than those.  Moisture levels are not quite up to yesterday's level of 2.0 -2.2" inches, ranging in the 1.8 -2.1" range with the highest moisture over SW Florida.  Showers in the now uncapped environment have developed along the west side of the intracoastal of Brevard, which all in all, is THE most unstable at this early hour. Some of these have some thunder.  However, all of this tremendous instability is only a potential, without a trigger it means little.  


TODAY: Believe showers will continue to form along the east coast sea breeze through early afternoon and develop into some thunder possibly quite soon (as of 12:00pm). There is very little in wind at the surface, and for the most part, winds aloft are close to unidirectional from the South to SSE..with a bit of a more SSW component toward the east coast in Volusia and Flagler Counties. However, from DAB and north the atmosphere exhibits very little potential  for even a rain shower to form, as has been the case all morning. Not sure if this will ever change. Hence, believe the best chance for the big activity today will be mostly along and South of I-4 other than much further north toward I-10. Things could change by late afternoon, but the area will have a lot of catching up to do.

LATER TODAY: East Coast sea breeze might not get all so far inland, perhaps as far as yesterday, if even. I'm starting to wonder considering ACTUAL data coming in is not matching up with what models are spitting out. As it now is trending..steering will be nearly parallel to I-95 South of the Beach-line and lean a bit toward the east North of the beach line.  However, it's only about 10 mph. This is significant because should any strong storms form and propagate further west over West Central and SW Florida..outflows could over-rule whatever steering exists.  Additionally, with the steering from this direction, storm outflows over South Florida might advect the deepest moisture Northward later today as they collapse. ASSUMING, that is, that they can even form.  There is a fly in the ointment for that area, as impressive as the values are. Namely, very poor mixing of the moisture with dry air as is see by the bulls eye of lower mixing ratios in the region of SW Florida. which extends N and east toward Daytona Beach. hard to bet mover than a rainshower started in this environment. But this could change quickly. Even now, rain showers refuse to form much further north into the green area into Daytona, and this might be why. Poor mixing of the moist and dry air.




Otherwise, the area not in the green is more primed to be rained on along and west of the East Coast Seabreeze. It is very slow to start today...and might take yet a while longer to get going. In fact, I'm not 100% sold on a lot of factors today, so today's post is a bit supposititious, angling toward the likelihood of storms. 


The other fly in the ointment is the sea breeze collision factor. Like noted before, we will need a trigger. Which sea breeze will be most eager to push inland or will they come out about equal as was the case yesterday? Activity should be able to get started along the side of the Okeechobee Shadow shortly, which has already become evident. The shadow (or clearing area) is showing to extend just west of due North through Okeechobee county as I type, and so far is inactive.  Storms could ignite on the east side of the shadow (less likely on the west side) and eventually outflows from those could meet the east coast sea breeze, in which case storms could end up even further east than expected currently.

This is my line of thinking as of noon for the period of noon (for showers in green) evolving into Thundershowers by 1-2pm and eventually thunderstorms, some strong to marginally severe after 4:30pm in the Central Portions... perhaps even later than that. As noted above, that area in SW Florida, although unstable as all get out...might have a hard time finding a trigger to set the area off. In other words, that area, as well as much of South Central, is powder keg of gunpowder waiting from someone to light the fuse. Overall, storm coverage will NOT be as high as this image might lead one to believe. But about 40-50% of this area might see rain at some time or another before the day is through...

It's is also a little ambiguous by which  it appears that, although activity 'should' be mostly isolated to scattered at some point in time over the interior, that this notion might be all for naught given some other factors are falling in line to indicate that there could be a very good coverage of storms and rain over western portions of South Central Florida late today. Again, the area in SW Florida has to be able to light up with storms, or much of today's reasoning is blown away...dust in the hot, humid, sea breezes of yore.


NATURE OF STORMS TODAY: Under the half-boiled idea that stronger storms will form, they would exhibit frquent to excessive lightning, winds in the 35-50mph range, and small hail. Only a few would exhibit these qualities. Not to be fooled, some stronger wind could occur well removed from any rain cores or even far away from lightning, particularly in the early evening toward the east side of the state north of Vero Beach toward Daytona and Ormond Beach. Scrambled might be more like it from the way this reads. The values out there being proven by actual data far surpasses what any model is showing though, so I'm going with the gusto today. I've even been a bit tempted to toss in waterspouts over the intracoastal, but chances are the early activity today won't make it over the rivers.. dust devils arent entirely out of the question in your favored Wal-Mart parking lot before 2pm though...


SIDE NOTE: There is the remote chance that right near 'prime time' for storms, much of the atmospheric moisture (PWAT air) could begin to depart the area. If this does occur, storm coverage will be significantly lower, as will storm strength. This has been shown to occur sometime close to 4 or 5pm.

Late afternoon storm passing near or over Orlando Metro as viewed from the Lone Cabbage Fish Camp in West Cocoa

TROPICS: Other than a tropical disturbance in the Antilles just east and south of Puerto Rico, there is just one more wave much further to the west. Neither of these waves is expected as of this morning to develop within the next 48 hours. After which point, conditions might become even more unfavorable for development, unless they roll into South America.


SUNDAY: It was believed earlier that today would hold hope for only isolated storms late in the day, and that notion (other than what I just went into detail to counter-literate), should be the same. Very little activity.


BEYOND: Holding true to form, the GFS is still bringing a more significant trough into the SE U.S. on Monday which should be felt first across North Central on Monday and the entire state or nearly so on Tuesday going into Wednesday. Strong storms, but isolated might be possible on these days, mainly over North and North Central Florida..although, my fear is that much of North Central (north of I-4) might mainly just be very hot, and lack a sea breeze trigger. We'll have to watch for that when the time arrives.

Oppressive Warmth - Thunderstorms With Heavy Rain Possible Late Afternoon

Very typical, tropical-like thunder'shower' near the Merritt Island wild-life refuge at noon today. This light, short-lived activity did produce just a few lightning strikes (maybe 2 or 3); however, all lightning strikes that hit ground, no matter how weak the shower or storm is otherwise, is extremely dangerous.

TODAY: In general, pretty close to a classic summertime afternoon is in progress, with high humidity and overall high atmospheric moisture content across all of North Central through South Florida (PWAT 2.0 -2.2"). Additionally, the atmosphere is nearly uncapped everywhere with moderate to high instability in place. In response to the absence of a cap and the instability, rain and thundershowers are free to form along any wind boundary generated by a body of water--be it lake or sea. The image above I suspect shows a thundershower likely creasted by low level moisture convergence of the Atlantic combined with the winds of the intracoastal over the swampy land near the wild life refuge.  Other showers and some thunderstorms are over far South Florida which began as early as 10:00am this morning and might be on their last leg until late today shortly. Showers that look like the photo below from a distance can generate lightning...even at a near by location where rain is not falling.

THIS AFTERNOON: More showers and thundershowers will form in renegade fashion wherever there is a lake or sea breeze boundary to be found, in pockets. As such, the will be scattered along these boundaries but otherwise very isolated to nonexistent.  Things will change I suspect after 4:00pm as the east coast sea-breeze should pick up momentum from the SSE-SE with the west coast sea-breeze laying closer to that coast, especially south of Tampa Bay (south of the ridge axis which is across Central Florida somewhere, meandering).


LATE AFTERNOON: With peak heating of the day subsiding, and boundaries now in full outward and forward throttle mode, collisions of Lake and Sea Breeze will becoming more likely...with newer and stronger activity evolving and subsequently generating new boundaries to the mix of greater forward motion. Thus, the strongest activity will be the last few storms of the day which I suspect will occur between 5:30pm to 8pm (as usual).


SOUTH FLORIDA: Early day activity should be on the wane shortly over far South Florida except near Lake Okeechobee. This area might have time to recover toward Dade County this afternoon to have a relapse in the early evening west of town.


NORTH FLORIDA: A lot of the activity here will be generate from the Gulf Breeze with less atmospheric moisture at hand..it should be a bit more isolated except toward the west half of the Panhandle.


CENTRAL. Strongest activity should be focused late toward Tampa Bay and over toward Lake County, Polk County, and possibly into West Orange and Seminole. Outflows could back build activity after 7pm toward Central Osceola County (northern), and Orange. Additional activity which could be meandering around for a while near Ocala and SE toward the West side of Sanford seems possible as well. By late afternoon the A1A corridor might start to cloud up a little mid from mid-level debris clouds floating lazily into the area.


STORMS LATE TODAY: Note I have used the verboten word of old, "thundershower', today. There's really no better way to describe what I'm seeing out there right now. Hardly quantifying as a 'storm' with the caliber of prolonged flooding rains, strong wind, hail..etc. REGARDLESS: Any of today's activity will have the potential to create lightning, which does not discriminate. Late afternoon, now there's your thunderstorms. I've drawn in red where I'm thinking that as of noon time those seem to be most likely.


But, like any day...by  that time..5-6 hours from now, things may change. The only real change I foresee now would be to shift that red area a bit more to either the west or east. That is because it will depend on how far west and how strong the east coast sea breeze is by early evening. Note that the latest short term ACTUALS does have activity to move in a general NNW direction, although the latest guidance is also showing that by late afternoon that motion could change to be from toward the NNE across the inland areas and along the depth of east coast sea breeze westward penetration..which will probably be close to Orlando ...north/south. This could bring activity into Western Volusia/Flagler (perhaps as well).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Could be a down ward trend in activity with a similar pattern in regard to timing of storm initiation and location throughout the day...just less of it. There is more moisture in the atmosphere than was forecast though, so with that in mind we'll have to see how much moisture is around again tomorrow morning and Sunday...things might go even lower on Monday...before an uptick heading toward mid-week or July 26th/27th time frame, but see the next paragraph in those regards.


TROPICS: There is a tropical wave being monitored by the Hurricane Center over the Caribbean moving west to west northwest. So far, none but one model believes this wave will amount to anything more that as a focal point for increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. One model has tried to form it into a depression which then passes just east of the Florida East coast next week, but at this time that appears very unlikely to occur given what the long range models have consistently shown the pattern to be since way before the inception of this area of interest. That being, the Atlantic Ridge Axis being in firm control into Florida until a trough from the north (as mentioned in a post nearly 5 days ago)...breaks it down. This could be the reason the one model (NOGAPS) lets it curve northward.  But latest on those models shows no breakdown to occur until after this wave is west of the state.  Whether it does so or not, it could mean an increase in rain chances for the Southern 1/3 of the state next week....unless of course, it decides to curve more toward the NW-NNW on Sunday or Monday. Something to watch is about what it sums up to be for now.

Ayy Caramba, "Bret"s Getting "Bart-ed"

The Devious, underhanded, clever, and deviant Tropical Storm Bret is
getting his crew cut, or we should say, a 'good shearing' early this afternoon.
He has created nothing but grief for some parts of Florida that are still being impacted by drought
by cutting off the deep moisture supply to all by South Florida, and even that is going on the wane to some degree today. Some of the cirrus being stripped off the top of the storm from upper level winds has was over Eastern Florida earlier today...but seems to have gone on the wane the past couple of hours.

BRET: The latest on the storm per the NHC (National Hurricane Center reads:

 "DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OFDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A GENEROUS ESTIMATE.

(I'd say, "Eat my Shorts").

SOME HISTORY: Bret formed when there was a break in a trough axis which was running across the 
Panhandle for several days, if you were watching all the rain up there last 
week. The low that was near Panama City is now  near Louisiana. The 
break in that trough is obvious here now with northerly winds and dry air (over 
most but South Florida) where high pressure broke through from the north...the other part of the 

trough became Bret  which is now  pulling off to the NE..(aka, Bart is Splitting the Scene). 

Once that 'trough' in the mid levels (which eastern Florida is still in as well as Bret)  pulls far enough away the Atlantic ridge axis which is our summer time guiding principle ...which had completely 

dropped out of the picture...will  be able to move back in again..which is what is going to happen 
during the next 48 hours...but then the moisture over South Florida has to be filtered back 
north..and that will take another day or two..unfortunately, the trough (and 
Bret)..pulling away is also taking all of that moisture that was around here 
with it, or nearly so..so we will be left with less storm coverage with lower precipitable 
water air ...but enough to squeeze out storms with sea breeze convergences..in days ahead.

This chart shows the precipitable water available in the atmosphere by the contours (PWAT). We see only 1.3 inches in West Central Florida but 1.7 - 2.0" over far South Florida. Pure and simple, this is where any thunder can occur today where there is a sea breeze merger ...although that might be hard pressed to find given the winds. If it is to occur it will be later today. Temperatures aloft are actually pretty cool , so a stronger storm or two like yesterday is possible. The area over East Central is  an area of mid-level moisture convergence, but it is very dry about 10,000 ft. Anything to form here will only be an isolated rain shower, with most likely only larger cumulus type clouds.

TODAY: Showers and some thunder far South Florida toward the Keys. Maybe a few light showers East Central as well due to moisture convergence at the mid levels and a little bit of lift provided by weak speed shear from the ENE just above the surface. Any showers will be brief and isolated.

TOMORROW: Bret will pull further away and moisture levels will attempt to creep back northward. 

The NAM is much more aggressive than the more reliable GFS (Which has been the most reliable for several weeks now)...so will hedge with the GFS, which leaves us with showers/thunder along SE Florida possibly reaching as far north as SE Osceola County toward extreme SW Brevard...but likely a bit further south than that.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Each day moisture will work further north as the Atlantic ridge builds in 

across South Central Florida. This will push the better rain chances over South Florida further toward the west..but further north as well..to include all of South Central Florida toward the Beach Line..possibly as far north as I-4 on Saturday or Sunday. Storms will remain isolated, although there could be a period from 5)30pm toward 7:00pm that there will be a number of storms primarily lined up 

along and west of the east coast seabreeze which should be just along or west of I-95. Storm debris could wash off to the east coast of the Space and Treasure Coasts as storms dissipate, although on one of these days at least it is possible they might actually reach US1 or maybe even A1A.

BEYOND: There are two schools of thought heading toward next week. 1) Ridge axis remains somewhere between South Central to Dead Central Florida with diurnal, sea/lake breeze thunderstorms in the interior  2) A healthy tropical wave well east in the Atlantic holds its own and relocates the 

ridge axis well to the north of Central Florida. This places the entire state in a more easterly flow...

with showers...time will tell as approach the end of the weekend. We are getting closer to the 

true Tropical Season.

Who knows, in weeks or months ahead, Bart...er Bret, could be followed by:

HURRICANE HOMER!!!!

Scattered Thunderstorms South Florida, Showers Elsewhere With Isolated ThunderM

Most if not all activity today will occur SOUTH of the Yellow Line. Actually, toward the west side that line should probably be placed further South, but it is located there for now to account for unforeseen 20-30% rain chances possibly becoming reality later today. North of the yellow line: mostly low topped showers, although one or two might thunder. Expect this to be generated much later today as a ridge wrapping around Tropical Storm  Bret now north of the Bahamas and moving NNE at 5mph  starts to relocate. The ridge across North Central/North Florida is suppressing rain showers early this afternoon.
Will also need to watch the gravy train of showers coming in across far South Brevard and Indian River Counties. As Bret lifts slowly north this axis might also do so in tandem. This is an outlier notion though, but worth considering. I honestly do not fore see this to occur..so it will be interesting to see what happens with that area. I'm actually expecting it to simply wash out.

TODAY: Was going to take the day off since not much is going to go on most of the day other than over the South Half of the state. Looks like rain showers and some thunder will be getting underway...finally amassing later today toward SW Florida by day's end..with other activity just about anywhere but favoring toward the coasts all around South Florida and the Everglades.


Further North, latest satellite imagery is showing  several lines of cumulus and showers well  to the ENE of the state, but they are currently making a bee line toward Eastern portions of the North half of the state. If this batch of moisture is to arrive, it would not be until after 3:30pm North Florida and closer toward 6pm the further south one goes.  Interesting that the latest RUC 18 hour run is trying to wrap deeper moisture around from where showers are occurring over Palm Beach County Northward as Bret inches away later today and opens up the broad low pressure circulation the is encompassing most of the peninsula today.and brings a bigger wave of showers in on Northern Brevard about the same time as the other batch arrives which does not make sense. Either way, all the models are showing that eventually there will be isolated rain showers, moving into North Florida at some point or another today, so I drew it in..although that chance honestly seems a bit sketchy right now...and would not be willing to bet more than 3 dollars on it at this point. I didn't bite on that idea yesterday, and the models were really going to town on the chance up there... Then again, I'm not the gambling type.


BEYOND: Mostly a far South Florida rain chance tomorrow, but much less of one than today as Bret and its accompanying mid level low pressure axis pull out of the area down there. We will be transitioning tomorrow from Bret's departure..and there will be few focal points other than moisture convergence boundaries along the sea breeze and lake breeze fronts. By Wednesday, it looks Bret will be far enough away to leave most of the state in a neutral state of affairs, favoring a late afternoon sea breeze convergence in the far interior. However, this is a big departure from previous lines of model reasoning  which mostly only had South Central Florida under the 'chance of rain' gun.


Not going to dive into anything in regard to where rains will occur later in the week. Showers/thunder will remain mostly isolated through Thursday and possibly Friday with late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms where moisture convergence is maximized over the interior sectors west of I-95. Rain chances should be best over South Central Florida through Friday. Into the weekend a boundary might be approaching the Deep South, and overall atmospheric moisture profiles are expected to increase significantly along and ahead of the boundary over North and northern portions of North Central Florida for higher thunder and rain chances.
Will leave it vague for today otherwise. Tropical Storm 'Brat' is disrupting the normal afternoon shower and thunderstorm diurnal cycle and needs to be GONE post-haste so we can return to our normal lives.

Scattered to Numerous Showers/Storms West and Southwest Florida Today

Satellite image from 9:15AM this morning. An area of tropical interest is now centered somewhere almost due east of Sebastian Inlet. This area is anywhere from where it is show above to another 50-80 miles further east. It's not really a closed circulation. That area shown is mainly in the mid-levels. The low level circulation is far removed from the thunderstorms and has moved little since shortly after midnight roughly east of West Palm Beach.

TODAY; Not really going to delve into details, since the biggest difficulty today was trying to determine where it is LEAST likely to rain (at least more than a quick passing shower) today.  Virtually every model is handling the precipitation fields differently, so I'll run with the memory banks under similar set ups in the past.


FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR RAIN: Sunshine and lots of atmospheric moisture across the peninsula  However, the sunshine is highly 'filtered' and not impressive.


CONS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA: Descending air on the west side of this weak circulation combined with high pressure trying to build in from the north should suppress most immediate coastal activity by early afternoon. NE winds to pick up which will pile up the shallower moisture toward the West side of the state...especially over SW Florida where circulations are very weak, as well as near Lake Okeechobee due to Lake breezes 'converging' the moisture, namely toward Western Broward/Dade Counties and over toward Collier. Otherwise, filtered sunshine for most of East Central Florida today if not most everyone.


OUTLIER: There is a chance that some stronger outflows from the west side  could penetrate back toward the East very late today and result in some thunderstorms  in western Orange and Osceola Counties. But the majority of the rains today for Central Florida will fall west of the spine of the state.

These areas seem to be the most likely to get the rains, with spotty showers as shown closer to the east coast. The area that gets even more difficult though is around Palm Beach County where surface winds are lighter and Lake Breezes might be able to compensate...west of I-95. The weak circulation can be seen if you know how to read the wind barbs east of Boynton Beach. The mid level circulation is nearly off to the east of this chart and totally not 'stacked' with the surface circulation.  

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Rather than going at length into discussion at how the various models agree or disagree, believe it best to sum it up in saying that the weather for much of East Central Florida, particularly South Central will be sketchy at best the next 2-3 days. I will continue to ride with the general idea of the Good For Something (GFS), since it has faired well the past two weeks.  It is also a bit in agreement with the NAM (for a change) in the next few days. That being, a trough in the mid-levels should persist from just off SE Florida toward the ENE-NE out into the Atlantic. The North Half of the state will remain nearly rain-free the next few days, where'as from near Cape Canaveral to Brooksville  and south there is a chance of showers at almost any time (showers in Canaveral and more likely thunder the further west one gets).  


The hurricane center is monitoring the situation just off shore the Florida coast, but expects that no significant organization will occur in the next 48 hours.  Meanwhile, a  big change in the pattern over the U.S. is expected this week. This would mean an end to the big heat wave over the Central Plains states as a series of vigorous short wave troughs 'ridge ride' across it through the Dakotas toward Minnesota and into the NE States, generating severe weather episodes along the way all across the Northern Tier of states. This will effectively wear the ridge down and begin to carve a broad trough toward the eastern U.S. Coast Line. 


As that trough develops the area of interest (Invest) is then pictured to be absorbed within that trough and be sheared off toward the NE by late this coming week.  A more normal thunderstorm pattern is then anticipated to commence heading toward late Wednesday or Thursday. However, a lot will depend in this regard on how well the trough digs along the East Coast. If this powerful ridge of high pressure over the Plains persists as it has for a week now...all bets are off..and the low pressure area to the east of Florida is free to continue to meander until there's a reason for it to move, or even develop into something more significant like a depression or tropical storm (not expecting that to occur).


There is a reason that if it does meander it will be scooted toward the West though coming late week. The GFS is quite confident that not one but two TUTT lows (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Troughs) will move across the Caribbean from the mid-Atlantic toward mid-late week. These would shear and dry out the disturbed area if it is still in place. In fact, last night the GFS tried to form one of this TUTT lows right over Florida?!


Interesting that the 18hr RUC model tries to open that area well off to the east into an open wave and bring it into Florida tomorrow?!!! That's the outlier by FAR right now...and not buying into it. So far, there has been no indication of the area doing that OTHER THAN that convection on radar has weakened quite a bit since sunrise...but that might just be a diurnal/tropical affect.


Otherwise, closer to home, the north 1/2 of the state other than the Panhandle area looks to dry out for a number of days after today if all goes according to model consensus plans. Just have to see, but that's the quick and dirty on the 'quick and dirty'.

Gentleman's Forecast Guess For Heavy Late Afternoon - Mid Evening Rain/Thunder

Stormy Skies Approach the Fish Camp in West Cocoa Off of SR520 Late Friday Afternoon with an eerily near calm wind. That changed within minutes after this photograph with cool thunderstorm outflow winds blowing through

TODAY: As if most days are not difficult enough, today is proving to be a nightmare to forecast. The reason is : 1) lack of any significant sea breeze convergence due to only slow sea breeze inland progression; 2) no focal synoptic boundaries other than the one across North Florida which meanders north/south by 50-100 miles but mostly close to I-10; and (3) later than usual onset of sea breeze induced showers and storms, plus (4) very diffuse east AND west  coast sea breezes. In fact, today the gradient flow is about all there  is to work with along the east coast due to a weak trough and low pressure circulation offshore. See image below.  On shore wind at the beach is mostly less than 10 mph, and seems to be mainly perpendicular to what ever coastline shape it traces. Hence, it is ENE toward the Launch pads and SE near Cocoa Beach, and Easterly further down the coast. The only real sea breeze is along the North Florida East Coast...and that is enhanced gradient flow rather than thermally induced.   5) Showers and some thunder have gotten started mainly along the entire west coast  sea breeze. It is progressing inland in broken fashion mainly because these showers are sending outflow boundaries eastward toward the interior...especially in North Central/North West Florida.


LATER: Today's activity will begin later today for other than standard shower and light thunder fare we are seeing now, after peak heating has reached and things start to cool down. That means after 4:30-pm. Once this activity gets going more significant outflows will yield more storm coverage and greatest strength as well.  My line of thinking is that one of the earlier areas to ignite will be near Lake County and also around Lake Okeechobee. 


CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL: Out flow from this activity will spread out...but mostly toward the East (near Lake County) and against the opposing light northerly gradient flow. This should set off a chain reaction South and a bit eastward down the spine of the state favoring a bit toward the west of Orlando and into the Disney Metro-Plexes , Western Osceola, and much of Polk County. Outflow from this  domino affect activity, as well as other activity sparked further east could send a second outflow surge east and west toward the Brevard County line of short duration for maybe a storm or two.  Oddly, the area around Cocoa Beach toward the Space Center has had 'something going on' all morning and still does. Unless a significant sea breeze moves across this area, there is a remote chance of thunder somewhere closer to the coast near the Cape in the early evening with such light wind at 3:30pm in the afternnoon and very high dewpoints. As of nearly 4pm only now do I see some palms stirring, but not by much.  It is almost warmer in Canaveral than in Melbourne further inland this afternoon, even with the light onshore wind puff...hardly a sea breeze (yet). Although, all kinds of things can happen between 4:30pm and 5:30pm....."The Witching Hour".  Who knows what evil lurks at that time!

Image looks like Lego-Land doesn't it?!!. Actually, all this is showing is 3 possible areas of interest in the green squares. Where thunder could happen in orange, and in red is possible the more highly concentrated area of thunder. Any strong storms of which there might be 2 or 3 could produce some gustier than standard fare winds, and possibly one might generate some Hasbro B.B.Gun sized hail...kids stuff.  The water-body generated boundaries are shown in blue, and that does not count the numerous larger lakes in the interior of Central Florida. I think the lakes in Osceola County today might be a big player today as well in the Kissimmee/St. Cloud area and down the Florida Turnpike toward Yeehaw Junction.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Light sea breezes not doing much..and Lake Breeze shadow has established across the SW Portion of the state...sea breeze/shadow boundary interactions could fill this area in later today with small isolated activity into Palm Beach and Okeechobee County.  Okeechobee might get the best of both worlds by the time all is said and done tonight..with outflows and boundary merges filtering southward with time from the north combined with doing it's own business. We won't tell.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: As has been written, patterns in the summer mostly hold in for around 3 days (with variations of the same theme). Yesterday was the beginning of a new theme, and today is yet another variation as will be  tomorrow. There are bigger eggs to fry though...that is, low pressure of fthe Florida East Coast and the boundary near the FL/GA border. One indication is that the boundary will sink toward Central Florida by tomorrow, whereas another is that it goes nowhere. Additionally, the GFS (Good For Something) model...uh... Global Forecast System...has shifted gears from the past 36 hours. Instead of further forming a surface/mid level low over or near the Cape..it now brings it in then takes it back out to sea and well offshore by tomorrow. Maybe it is bringing it in due to a diurnal fluctuation..but for whatever reason and where -ever that low and the predominant North Florida boundary lies tomorrow will determine our forecast tomorrow in regard to where the best chance of rain will be.


LONG RANGE: The Good For Something model is failing us...it us also done an about face/forward march in a different direction. "Hey you!...What about what you said all those days ago for the past 8 days?!!..'Don't Pull a  "Casey" on us.  Yes, it seems to be either lying or had a hiccup for days ahead.  But there does seem to be a period of better rain chances along the Beaches of North Brevard earlier in the day through Monday with thunder further inland in the afternoons. North Florida dries out..and now it slowly becomes South Central and South Florida that get into the focus heading into the middle of next week. But it's touch and go. That is because it wants to believe there will be a SW gradient flow so strong that the East Coast north of Titusville will never get a sea breeze. We'll have to see about that. Looks suspect. The entire 12Z run latched on to something, and probably just hasn't resolved it yet. Could taken another run or two to relax and look more reliable.

Traversing east bound on the Pineda Cswy  across the Indian River on Friday just before 6pm

More Rain and Thunder Than Yesterday Possible Anywhere

At Sunset, Children Play Ball in the Streets of Cape Canaveral while an outflow of wind from a storm along I-95 presses east across the Banana River toward the coastline and A1A

TODAY: Today looks much like yesterday to some degree, but in others it is QUITE different.
1) The surface trough of low pressure has shifted south from Central Georgia Yesterday
2) There is a new trough located off the Florida Coast. Storms have been active along that boundary, and as of this writing have sent out an Outflow boundary toward the coast. The question is, how far East will it make it, and it is stalls somewhere offshore, what kind if any impact would it have to the weather across East Florida today, mainly along and east of I-95? It could make it significantly nicer later today, or much more rainy.
I'll show you the images and a quick write up about that feature
3) The atmosphere started out uncapped and unstable right off the bat, as well as very moist. Showers and some thunder are marching eastward across the NW 1/2 of the state, and one managed to from in Southern Brevard County last hour. Cumulus clouds are also making it over the Barrier Islands and so far winds are light and variable, although becoming a bit easterly. I"m not so sure if a true East Coast Sea-breeze will manifest with great strength, with the area of storms further offshore. OR..it could be magnified later today, especially if that out flow makes it in around 4 or 4:30pm as timing would place it to be.
4) Some thin cirrus clouds are passing over and creating spottier pockets when showers cannot form in their presence. How much more cirrus will have moved into the areas over South Central and South Florida later today? So far, I'm assuming not a whole lot more than is currently present. If it gets much thicker though, rain chances go way down.

SET UP OVER FLORIDA: There are the two boundaries mentioned above. Not sure what kind of boundary you'd call these, so I drew a red cold front and blue warm front off shore moving the wrong way. So far, the only affect these boundaries have is to disrupt the normal wind flows.  The stronger west to east push is along and north of the Green Line, and close to nil or much less further south. Most activity here will be sea breeze/Lake Breeze driven and later in the day than north of the Green Line other than in some isolated pockets.


The greatest concentration of rainfall through most of the day will be north and along the red boundary into the panhandle. Late today, this better concentration could be over South Central and into South Florida where it will take longer for Water driven wind boundaries to establish, generate storms, and have those collapse to create more boundaries. A boundary driven day, like any other summer day.  

THIS IS VALID FOR THE PERIOD FROM 4:30PM and BEYOND until whenever the activity ends. I'm not so sure it will end all so soon tonight. Any lingering boundaries that are near areas that were not rain on heavily earlier in the afternoon could re-ignite any time through around 2AM.  

SATURDAY: GOOD QUESTION: Could there be showers very close to A1A from Daytona to Ft. Pierce, even before sunrise? The GFS has implied that to be the case for two days... for now, just playing it by ear and will assume a variation of today to play it conservative.

IN CLOSING: HERE IS WHERE THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF SHORE ARE RIGHT NOW AT 1:45PM. THEY ARE BOTH STILL APPROACHING EACH OTHER, BUT FOR HOW LONG?