UPDATE TO: "Are You Ready?" Facts vs Fiction

GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SPELL GLOOM AND DOOM 5 DAYS OUT
AT LEAST...
CAN THEY REALLY BE THAT ACCURATE???
Not Likely...However, these tracks are alarming for Florida.
Can Central Florida (namely the east side)...Really Get a High End Category Storm though?
See the text below, From the Florida Emergency Management web site:




STORM TRACKS IN 1964:

Hurricane Igor 2010

"Brevard (or Indian River/St. Lucie/or even Volusia) will never be hit by a major hurricane "
There is an old "tall tale" that persists, and is believed by some, that
Brevard County (for instance)  will not be hit by a killer hurricane. The "tale" claims that
the Federal government located the space program at Cape Canaveral and KSC
because Brevard’s geographical characteristics and location made it immune
to hurricanes. 


I present these years. Cleo is of most interest because it most closely represents the current situation this morning that 'could' occur with Irene..Cleo was in 1964. It is interesting, as a friend pointed out, that Cleo was followed by DORA only a few weeks later...this came out when I pointed out that Cleo hit almost TO THE DAY in August that Irene Is expected. DORA took a very odd course..coming in from the East...and wouldn't you know..there's another storm abrewin' off of Africa this morning.


It is also worth noting that the worst drought in Texas History prior to the current one was generally 50 years ago...and as all droughts are caused by..high pressure that will not budge..that has been the case this year in the Southern Plains.  I am a firm believer in 20, 30. and 50 years weather cycles...addtio

"Are You Ready?" UPDATE: Fact vs. Fiction

nally, it was within the Cleo (during a La Nina) occurred...such is the case (or close to it)..at this time.


Emergency Management Web Site: 
Brevard County has been hit by major hurricanes in the past and it is only a matter of time when, not if, Brevard will be hit again. In 1871, 1880 and 1885 major hurricanes slammed into Brevard County, at and south of Cocoa Beach. The 1885 hurricane’s storm 
surge pushed the ocean over Cocoa Beach and into the Banana River, flooding
out homesteaders and discouraging further settlement. The beach near the
Canaveral Light House was so severely eroded, the government was prompted to
allot money to move the light house one mile west. Historical information
reported that the eye of a "terrible hurricane" took four hours to pass
northward over Eau Gallie in 1876. In 1873, a major hurricane exited Florida
near Melbourne. In 1928, a major hurricane caused heavy property damage from
South Brevard to St. Lucie County. In recent history, Hurricanes Donna in
1960, David in 1979 and Erin in 1995 proved again that Brevard was not
immune from hurricanes and the Andrew type "Big One" looms out there in our
future. Brevard’s population has exploded since the late 1800's, even since
Donna in 1960, and consequently, even a moderate storm will cause
considerable damage and danger to its citizens. 




Given that we are not entering the more 'tropically inclined' part of the Hurricane season, and there are storms out there (Irene) that could actually pose a threat (with more to come)it would seem appropriate a quick-n-dirty on most of what one needs to know (and then some) would be in order.


Note that only 2 other years (one being 2005) have had as many named systems this early in the season...


AS FOR IRENE: I'm willing to be that if there is only minor changes to the forecast track through Tuesday, the evacuations could be a very real possibility, namely because the uncertainty in strengthening is tremendous..with a Category 1 most likely, although the latest stats I've seen imply more like a Category 2. Even if it comes in over South Florida first it could strengthen over the Everglades/Lake Okeechobee area. That, plus a storm moving upriver...(upwind as used for thunderstorm discussions)..and strong category 1 hurricane could submerge the causeways...leaving the barrier islands land-locked. This would occur from the tremendous upriver surge of water upwelling combined with rainfall anticipated (if it tracks across Florida from the South)..could exceed 7-10" on the east coast.


On the other hand, if the storm is within, say perhaps 75 miles of the coast an north north west bound..who's to say it might not suddenly stall..loiter a while..then move ashore at any given location from Port Canaveral to Miami?...the risk is high...especially when considering were that the path of storm's preference, it could get stronger while off shore (One model shows a Catergory 5 hurricane in this instance..which likely could be tossed out..just like the ones showing nothing but a depression..if even that).


The special issue post will cover :
1. Some Basic Geography. Are you irritated when TV weathermen throw out latitude and longitude coordinates left and right as if we know where 10N Latitude actually Is?...or where are the Lesser Antilles, the Leeward and Windward Islands, (the U.S Virgin Islands fall in there somewhere right?), the Bay of Campeche (com-pay-che)...or the Greater Antilles? No fear ...it's all here.


2. Hurricane Preparedness: Be advised that most guidelines are prepared for the event of an evacuation due to either inland flooding depending on ones geographic location or coastal flooding due to the ocean's "Storm Surge".  But, even inland locations can succumb to long term power outages due to downed power lines. Where would you go if you live on or near the coast or what would you do if you have a pet?  What if you want to just avoid the whole mess no matter where you live, on the coast or inland?  Wouldn't it just be altogether best if no matter where you live to just leave the entire state (especially Florida) for the mountains of North Carolina with your family and pets (after boarding up the windows) and just forget the whole matter entirely? Probably, yes.


3. Mental preparation. NOW is the time to prepare mentally with the information provided in the back of your head..and to get at least your own tailored check list ready..or simply print this one out and add what ever other items happen to enter your head...whenever that might be. Just leave it on the kitchen counter and pencil things in as the urge strikes.  


First Geography:
I've added below a map of the Caribbean Sea...the island chains are noted on this map. No explanation required:

NOTE where the US/British Virgin Islands are located. The Leeward Islands are there, with the windward islands further South. Both the Leeward and Windward Islands make up the Lesser Antilles. The Greater Antilles (not often referred to) includes Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic/Haiti, and Cuba.

The West Indies are composed of the islands of the Caribbean Sea and can be
divided into the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles.

The Greater Antilles are the four largest islands in the northwestern
portion of the Caribbean Sea and include Cuba, Hispaniola (Haiti and the
Dominican Republic), Jamaica, and Puerto Rico.

The Lesser Antilles include the smaller islands of the Caribbean - the
Virgin Islands and the Windward Islands and Leeward Islands.

The Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands are part of the Lesser Antilles
of the Caribbean Sea.

The Windward Islands are southeastern islands of the Caribbean and include
Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Grenada. They're
called the Windward Islands because they're exposed to the wind ("windward")
of the northeast trade winds (northeasterlies).

The Leeward Islands include the Virgin Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe,
Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. They're called
the Leeward Islands because they're away from the wind ("lee").


I also wanted to mention those 'coordinates'. Here's two things to remember...10N Latitude. Most storms that form along that line off of Africa are more likely to impact the U.S. than those that form north of it (but not always). Here is where that line is located, and it's relation to the islands mentioned above. I've also included some fictional sample storm plots as they related to that line, which is highlighted in yellow:

 Hurricane Preparedness:

Below is the checklist prepared by the National Hurricane Center. I will add a few items as well: Items 1 -3 and the 'preamble' are of my own, with reasons...but above all:


KEEP YOUR HEAD ABOUT YOU: Rumors run rampant as a storm approaches. People will say this and that about what they heard, think they heard, or claim to know. Trust only ONE reliable source..the National Hurricane Center and your Local National Weather Service Office. They will dispense the information you need to know...rumors can grow like an infectious disease...the rumor turns into a lie or gets over-exaggerated..so that by the time it has passed through the lips of 3 different people the story might be in no way related to the original.  Do not get caught in the HYPE ..the media is equally as guilty. Take care of your business, do what you need to do..and do it very timely. 


#1: Weather Radio with back up batteries! Nothing worse than NOT KNOWING WHAT IS GOING ON. These can be purchased at Wal-Mart, Publix, and Radio Shack to name a few.
I like the ones produced by a company called "MidLand" with the S.A.M.E. alert feature. Essentially, the feature after it is programmed (very simple)..will only sound alerts appropriate for your general or immediate area of residence.  Remember, this radio is good not only for hurricane season..but any other time as well when strong or severe thunderstorms (including tornadoes) are threatening. Additionally, if you are in the hurricane or storm area..the radio will sound tornado warning during the course of the hurricane. ..in fact, tornadoes can be spawned well removed from the Hurricane or tropical storm as was the case in Florida when Hurricane Agnes and Storm Earl hit the Florida panhandle...yet the tornadoes were over the peninsula.


#2: Plan ahead if you KNOW you will evacuate. If you plan on heading for a motel, make reservations at least 2-3 days IN ADVANCE. Also, leave AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Otherwise, you could very end up in a huge traffic jam on I-95. Nothing like running out of gas THEN!
Also, contact several individuals to inform them on where you plan on going..and when you hope to be there. If possible, include a destination phone number. Find out if your motel (if so chosen) allows pets (if you have one)


#3: SAND BAGS if necessary. Depending on where you live such as in a very low area or on the ocean...a minimal storm could bring the ocean waves to the front door..or flooding low areas (as was the case after Hurricane Erin in the Melbourne, Fl area)..which happened the day AFTER the storm had passed.  If your area floods after a heavy rain event..imagine it 2 to 3 times worse. "It Could Happen Tomorrow".  


#4:  BOARDING FOR WINDOWS: Do you have the supplies at hand to board windows. Good window boarding supplies can come at a great cost as it becomes to be in high demand. Think about it. A lot of which windows to board depends on what direction the storm will approach and pass your area..and the same rule from one storm won't necessarily apply to another storm.

=========Official List Put out By The NHC===============(*with comments)
  
Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days***It is also said to fill the bath tub with water...but I believe gallon jugs of water stored ahead of time is better
Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
— non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices/ jerky
— foods for infants or the elderly
— snack foods
— non-electric can opener— cooking tools / fuel (?) If you are a camper type..this might work. Learn to eat from a can is what I say. Besides..having fire starter items around is a major hassle and presents a fire hazard
— paper plates / plastic utensils  (I say, learn to eat from a can)
- EXTRA plastic bags for trash
Blankets / Pillows, etc.

Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes  (more than 1 pair!)

First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs

Special Items - for babies and the elderly

Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes

Flashlight / Batteries

Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio!!

Telephones - Fully charged cell phone with extra battery and a traditional
(not cordless) telephone set

Cash (with some small bills) and Credit Cards - Banks and ATMs may not be
available for extended periods

Keys

Toys, Books and Games

Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable
plastic bag
— insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card,
etc.

Tools - keep a set with you during the storm

Vehicle fuel tanks filled

Pet care items
— proper identification / immunization records / medications
— ample supply of food and water
— a carrier or cage
— muzzle and leash





Can you think of anything else? Again..at least have this list in mind....
Personally, I began saving canned goods whenever they were on sale a few months ago..they can always be consumed later even if no evacuation or power failure ensues/occurs...no harm done:

Canned Goods can include fruits, vegetables, and meats like tuna and chicken. Also peanut butter eaten right from the spoon if no bread is available will work and won't go bad after opening.

I think this image is overly kind for a Cat 3 hurricane and above. Anyone outside reporting in those winds would NOT be standing unless in a sheltered area...they also forgot to include the flying debris that might whack the broadcaster on the head like a Coconut Head Bonk on the Bean, or a Trash Can Lid Instant Head Decapitation. Even in a Cat 1 I don't think the makeup would last long on her face. A Forced Evacuation can happen for even only a Cat 1 Hurricane depending on the geography of the coast in relation to what approach the storm will make.

Very few deaths occur during a big storm from drownings in the ocean..but it does happen. Beware..even when a storm is well offshore rip currents can be treacherous beyond belief. You only have to take one look at the ocean to know it is just plain ridiculous to venture into the water...it's the "Victory at Sea" - Epitome

Showery With Some Storms South Florida, Early to Late Evening Possible East Side of State Late/Tonight

Very difficult forecast today as we transition OUT of a pattern. Deepest Moisture is over South Florida at time as surface to upper level troughs linger later today just off the entire East Coast

TODAY: Hot North Central to North East Florida. Today is the day the water balloon of high pressure over Texas is being flattened from storms systems riding over its top...it is spreading outward west and east into Florida and a bit into New Mexico. Net result is warm air on the wings of westerly winds for higher than normal temperatures for August due to lack of cloud cover by late morning through peak heating . The east coast sea breeze is expected to develop...but perhaps fairly late today after peak heating which should allow the temperature to reach near record highs from JAX to MLB. Most of those highs will likely be realized though in locations where official observation points are not located (near A1A)..so we might never know. Mid 90Fs should be the norm..with upper 90Fs in many locations. South Florida might become quite warm as well with the lack of a seabreeze and a small delay in showers toward the east side (later than yesterday)..but records are not expected.


RAINS TODAY: Showers have gone up early off the tip of SE Florida as shown in this recent radar image. Those showers are moving slowly off to the east.  Further north, a pocket of mid level moisture resides over East Central Florida as noted by the fog report at Daytona and near foggy conditions at Canaveral. A RARITY for August at the beach! More anomalies abound as has been the case all summer.


The best chances for rain today are all along and south (east to west) of Lake Okeechobee..from near West Palm to Port Charolette where the high PWAT (precipitable water) resides at and over 2". Moisture decreases the further north one goes. South Florida is capped only at the low levels this morning..so with some day time heating the wheels should be set in motion for another day like the past several....as has been noted, South Florida recovers very quickly..or at least, that has been the ongoing theme all summer.


The trend in this pattern has been for each subsequent day to exhibit less lightning..so believe this will again be the case today over South Florida.  The keys have some showers now..and could again see some storms today, however, any storms further to their north could spread high anvil clouds south and shut the keys down by late afternoon. Storm motion should be west to east over South Florida at 10-13mph.  The only fly in the ointment would be if, like yesterday, activity over SW Florida sends out an outflow boundary eastward. This would progress storm motion coupled with forward motion propagation..leading to shower/storm activity over-running itself. Thus, that would account for lack of significant storm development..as storms over-run before getting well formed. The best chances for lightning in that case, and as pictured above, will be along the west and east coasts. No sea breeze is expected over South Florida today.


CENTRAL/NORTH FLORIDA: CONDITIONAL on forward (eastward) motion of the Mid-and upper level troughs now departing. Last night a generous lightning storm moved SSE from St. Augustine to Daytona...this was in a area depicted to be of much lower PWAT air, due to a dry slot in the mid-levels. This activity was likely instigated by a mid-level vort max rotating through the mid-level trough as it pulled offshore.  IF that trough moves very little...or in fact remains nearly in place today just off shore (but a bit further south)...moisture could 'pool' near the base of the trough. A sea breeze is expected today as noted in the previous paragraph...with a deeper westerly flow at the surface..and moisture convergence would superficially rise the low level PWAT air due to moisture convergence very close to the St. Johns River and south..just west of I-95 toward Vero Beach. With that in mind, moisture convergence/sea breeze convergence storms could form on the east side of the state after 4pm (especially South of SR 50) in Brevard County to Vero Beach.  Further northward progression of isolated storms is also possible as noted in the image.  Much of this is 'conditional' as stated and might not ever materialize at all. 


 This overall forecast portion is based on two consecutive runs of the NAM model (Not Always Manifested)..as has been the case all summer.  However, latest RUC runs (Run Under Cover) are showing storms to form between 4-5 pm and last until well after dark almost right over the coastal area of Brevard (and nothing further north). The 2AM run of the GFS...the Goofus...hasn't been so goofy this year at all except in long range tropical outlooks, as would be expected well out in time.  In looking at the Going For Something 2am run..it is running close to the earlier NAM runs..with showers/storms as shown..so I've included this area as shown in the image.


FRIDAY: Much of the same pattern, but less of it even more so...and activity should be much further west late in the day...but I'm not fully sold. The GFS has been less aggressive with the extent of the ballooning high pressure from Texas to affect Florida in the latest 2 runs. I also definitely recall another point in time when it over forecast this to occur..and what was to be a long duration dry spell for Central and North Florida amounted to maybe 2 days....Shower activity over the Keys looks to continue..with less activity over South Florida except SW Florida..but with sea breezes at play from both coasts...as well as likely a Lake breeze as the gradient decreases..Okeechobee County and the east side of the Lake toward interior Palm Beach and Martin Counties might also get in on some rainfall. Another hot day to start..but believe sea breezes will play a big factor further north late in the day..just exactly where will have to be determined tomorrow morning. My guess is that it will be more toward the interior of West Central in toward Orlando and Central Osceola County...near Kissimmee or just to the east of that location.


SAT/TUESDAY: Transition back to a modification of the last 4 days. The only difference this go around is that the mid-upper level troughs are not expected to dig as far south  this go around. Even that will have to be reassessed..although last time (for the past several days) the GFS had a good handle on the evolution of what eventually transpired.


Net affect with the above given, SW-W flow will develop, but since the steering troughs will not be as deeply entrenched, the winds aloft should be a bit lighter, allowing for development on most days of an east coast sea breeze. Sunday through Tuesday are shown for afternoon storms to development along these sea breezes and shift off the east coast mid-late afternoon to early evening. Since these troughs will not be as entrenched..and no tropical moisture is looming to the south, South Florida might not be fully into the playing fields for bigger rains... dependent more on moisture convergence associated with Lake and Sea breezes...combined with outflow interactions.


TROPICS: Beyond Tuesday or Wednesday...much of Florida's weather appears will be dependent on the extent of the high pressure over Texas. For now, I'm riding with PERSISTENCE..and that high over TEXAS has been persistent since early spring. Until we see the writing ON THE WALL..see no reason to deviate, even though the GFS is trying to weaken it and bring tropical entities this way...it has done that in the past all summer...so why should it be any different next week? 


With that...it is more likely that the trough over Florida and the SE states will persist...with storms possible over the interior and toward the East side through Friday of next week...although that might be stretching it.  


The run of the 2pm GFS last night showed 2 tropical Storms or perhaps Hurricanes to affect Florida either directly or indirectly in about 12 days, but..in 6 hours..those were all but completely gone. The next run was showing a tropical wave to affect the state late next week.......which is dwindled down from two tropical waves on the 8pm run to one wave on the 2am run early this morning at 2am . Thus, the trend has been to weaken the high over Texas..and shift Florida into a tropical, showery regime at some point in time later this month. I mention this because sooner or later..this regime is likely to come into play...I'd be watching the last week of August time frame..or anytime after the 23rd for a big change, since climatologically this is when Central Florida starts to wane on day to day storm activity to a very small degree. But on the other hand..and has been mentioned time and time again in previous posts since spring..this year has been anything BUT climatological~!

Early Day - Noon Storms Mainly Central...South Central, Florida

Thunderstorms are in progress at 7AM. This radar overlay with Mixed Layer CAPE (a measure of instability) shows the areas unfavorable for rain at this hour...namely from Central Volusia County and North in blue. The area from near Daytona Beach and south can still get a storm if not early then around early-mid afternoon from outflow boundaries working north.  Storms over Central Florida could have gusty winds today of 40-50mph

TODAY: The early bird gets the worm..or in the case of today..the storm. Storms are rapidly progressing ESE from the WNW this morning...and little change in this pattern is expected today. In turn, regeneration of storms might allow rain totals to pile up along the east and west coasts (mainly west coast) from near Brooksville to Tampa.  Storms this morning could produce some very gusty winds of 40-50mph, especially those that reach the east coast after 11AM as some daytime heating increases low level lapse rates. Those storms would most likely occur from south of Melbourne toward Ft. Pierce...but further north toward Playalinda beach and south to Daytona cannot be completely discounted as well. 


Storms are beginning to form offshore the west coast further south with rising of the sun. These will also work into the Lake Okeechoee area to Fort Lauderdale by noon or later. Expect much like yesterday's pattern for residents there, but with earlier onset of rain today from yesterday...with similar strength ..which might not be as strong as those further north which is located within an approaching 700mb trough.


Note: A "substantial waterspout' was ogled by a park ranger at Sebastian Inlet yesterday. Not sure a repeat performance will occur today..but if so a similar scenario could unfold in the same general location toward Ft. Pierce as storms move offshore.  


Otherwise, not as hot again today with earlier storms or cloud cover onset.  


THURSDAY: A similar pattern could unfold, only a bit further south. Storms on Thursday could occur roughly south of a line running from North Tampa Bay to Titusville, with the bigger rainfall totals further south as well. Very warm to hot from JAX to Port St. John on the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs...record high  at Daytona is possible.  An early afternoon sea breeze could take coastal temperatures down to normal. For the most part..the bigger rainfall totals will run from Tampa Bay to Vero Beach or Ft Pierce and south.


FRIDAY: This should be the driest day statewide, with a bit of a ghostly haunt of the past 4 days' pattern remaining for West Palm to Tampa Bay.  This day will need to be reassessed in regard to timing of rains and northern extent as well. Looks to be very rainy, or wet early with lingering light rain in the Miami Metro area.


SATURDAY: Pattern tends to retrograde with the approach of yet another mid and upper level trough from the west northwest (now over the Southern Plains).  Rains possible from mainly Brooksville to Oak Hill on the east coast (or the southern Volusia County area).


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Rains more statewide...


*** Saturday-Monday: These storms might be a bit later in the day, and stronger near the east coast along I-95 as it does appear an east coast sea breeze with very little inland penetration will be at play. In essence, things will be much different come Saturday and beyond from how they have been the past several days.


TROPICS: Not much to monitor at this time, although the Hurricane Center is watching Emily's Ashes for what reason I know not. They are giving it a ZERO percent chance of redevelopment...but they might be watching to see if it can get recirculated into the main stream...resurrected,resitated, or a story for reality TV?  


Emilycould remain nearly invisible (rather spooky), but the energy with it might make full circle and get caught in the easterlies in 5 days or so. That is the only reason I can see for tracking it.  Otherwise, there is another tropical wave SW of the Cape Verdes off the coast of Africa.  At this time, there is a lot of dry air ahead of it..but the wave is a Tidal one...and seems it might create its own bit of havoc on its own accord regardless.


The GFS model has various solutions for this wave from absolutely nothing in future days to a very large tropical cyclone moving into the Bay of Campeche and festering there in about 12 days. On the other hand, one solution has had it flirting with the U.S. East coast from Hatteras to Maine..ala 2010 storms.  


With that, we can produce our own little "cone of uncertainty"!

CONE OF UNCERTAINTY is only about 1500-2000 miles wide at day 12.

Storms Developing Before Lunch, Near Record Highs Again Possible

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach as viewed along SR528 in the mid-afternoon.. At this time the storm is over West Merritt Island and north toward Titusville as it inched in from the WNW

Rain curtain now only 1/2 mile to the west of the beach. At this time, Port Canaveral was in the rain and lightning

Lightning from a second storm (pictured)
Other strikes, mainly near Playalinda to Cape Canaveral had occurred a little more than an hour earlier as well, not shown in this image of Lightning Strike Data (these are rough estimates of strikes)

TODAY: Day 3 of the variation of the same theme. As noted several times, the weather in Florida often comes in 2-3 day clumps during the summer, unless the Bermuda High is in place...which has not..and is not expected to be the case anytime soon, to come to fruition.  There are some twists to today though, mainly for the area along and north of a line from Daytona Beach toward Apalachicola along the Gulf...where it looks to be capped early today.  This 'should' change.  I noticed the chance of rain has gone UP today and Wednesday as was expected might occur (on the official outlets..or not so official ones ..Like The Weather Channel).


Image above shows, per caption text, that most of the state should be similar to yesterday...but do note:
1) The GFS of 2AM indicates the majority of the rains today will occur close to the west coast..and then right along the east coast from Titusville to Miami..leaving the middle area a bit drier. This might be because of the brisk West to East flow in place. Do believe rains will add up in those locations, but at this point see no reason to believe the center of the state will be nearly 'dry'...
2) Almost ALL models indicate that it will be much drier as noted in the image above to the north of Daytona.


HOWEVER, this might be because that area (where it is shaded in blue)..is very capped this morning. They could easily not have forecast the break of this cap...and see no reason why that area should be all so different than anywhere else..only delayed. Thus..the area in red will be later (including Daytona)...and more isolated. Daytona could also get storms that develop along outflows from stronger activity further south..this would be after 3pm.  


Two records were set or tied yesterday (Melbourne and Vero Beach) in the high temperature department, officially, which means a much larger area likely also set or tied a record high temperature for the date. As anticipated..areas further north had the rain earlier...so today..a record high could be met or tied wherever the clouds or showers have not moved in too terribly so by 2-3pm. This area looks to be further north toward JAX-ST Augustine-Ormond Beach...but south from South Brevard to Ft Pierce could also get in on the act. This trend was anticipated as noted in the post 2 days ago...although in yesterday's post I was anticipating a broader expanse of early day rainfall type activity.  Strong storms are not anticipated, but there could be some wind gusts in the 40-45mph range by the strongest storms (very isolated).


WEDNESDAY: Another day like the past few, but there DEFINITELY is a big change in the theme's soundtrack and overall tone. More of a NNW to SSE steering flow will favor the interior and east side..with the least favored being SW Florida. 


THURSDAY: Drier air moves in from the North.. Essentially, several storm producing systems (short wave troughs) are working to suppress the high pressure area over Texas. The high is being flattened like a water balloon, and spreading both east and west into North Florida but flattened on the top..as mid level high pressure.  This will squeeze into North Florida with very hot airfrom North Brevard to JAx..more record highs possible although a mid-late afternoon sea breeze might tame those temperatures down along the coast.  Are water balloons filled with hot water, like some weather forecasts are filled with 'hot' air?


 Thursday looks to be about the driest day of the week for North Florida on the East side..with showers / storms possible south of SR 50 and into the interior. More early day activity over far South Florida will end the storms there by early afternoon, with late day...and perhaps stronger storms possible from near Tampa Bay...toward Lake County...and down Route 27 into Polk and Osceola County/Okeechobee from an east coast sea breeze.


FRIDAY and BEYOND: Lots of changes in store as the state seems to be in a trend of 2 day events, favoring various locations under a variety of different conditions. It does appear that all days from Friday or Saturday and beyond will have less storm coverage and will be generated mostly as a result of sea and lake breeze convergence...although one day in there might be similar to what the past few have been like. Temperatures return to normal after Friday with the sea breezes.


TROPICS: No tropic forecast is required today. There are a few waves in the Atlantic (not too great for surfing)..of meteorological nature. The biggest of which is off the Coast of Africa near the Cape Verdes. This could have a U.S. to Mexico Impact in about 12-14 days..but it's way too soon to bother speculating. Otherwise, the TUTT/SAL (Saharan Air Layer) north of the Dominican Republic is rotating in place...the GFS wants a piece of that to affect South Florida heading toward  early next week which seems a bit doubtful..but who really knows. If it does..rain chances for extreme South Florida and the Keys would go to zero.

THREATENING clouds along Ocean Beach BLVD behind Ron Jon's Surf Shop on Sunday

Not As Warm Today, Most Lightning Far East Side and South

Image shows those areas requiring the most recovery from yesterday/overnight in white.
North Florida is more of on a normal diurnal cycle though. Early on, showers and some thunder along the west coast are running into a capped environment in the mid-levels and decaying. This should change by late morning toward noon time as was the case yesterday. Please read colored text for details and gratuities.

TODAY: As expected, today appears will be just a variation of yesterday, but very well might end up similar when all is said and done.  Like yesterday, SE Florida is the most stabilized..but has significantly less (to zero) early day cloud cover as opposed to yesterday. North Central is already the most unstable and least capped, so is ready to go shortly within hours after sunrise.  Other areas will more readily fill in with cumulus clouds since there are NO DRY SLOTS...as opposed to yesterday. Dry in the sense that everyone already has a PWAT (precipitable water values) over 2"..and in some cases like off the SW coast up to 2.4" !. Watch that area in days ahead...I'll refer to it later in the tropics section.


Overall, today is not looking all so much different from yesterday with these three exceptions: 
1) More moisture state wide from the onset - much less cloud cover South Florida;


2) More moisture, less high clouds, less capping Central, should mean not as hot today except perhaps SE and NE Florida where rains might be most delayed because of early cumulus cloud development.... even cumulus clouds will offset the high temperatures today...so not expecting any recording breaking highs along A1A..although any area to not receive them will reach their high temp likely between 12 - 2pm. Melbourne tied their record high yesterday of 97F, and my porch was reading 98F which was probably a record for Cape Canaveral...but who knows.;


3) Sea breeze is possible from Ft. Pierce and South..hugging the coast and maybe of only short duration. Any sea breeze to form for Martin through all of Palm Beach County could enhance storm activity when combined with the Lake Shadow...especially near Ft. Pierce and West Palm Beach.


I will say though, just to write out what "Thee Models" read. There is a consensus that the most accumulated rain today will occur over far East Central Florida...with very little over SE Florida..and almost none near Miami (with the exception of the immediate east and southwest coasts from Lauderdale and north.  The other area that has been highlighted for higher rainfall totals is the barrier islands of Brevard County with some spottier areas from near Ormond Beach to JAX. In other words...not a whole lot different from yesterday.  The GFS for two runs (and the NAM last night)..has highlighted the Barrier islands for some reason.  But do note, higher rainfall totals (and not significantly so anyway), does not necessarily equate to the strongest storms. Theat could be from stronger storms offshore (like yesterday) leaving rain trails along the coast in backflow.   Guidance is showing though that mid-level temperatures are to be coolest from near North Brevard and South Today...thus, I drew in the stronger (most lightning type storms) along the east coast in that location.


Another note, no model picked up on all of the rain and thunder do the degree it is occurring over SW Florida...again ...watch that area in days to come.

Here's is a possibility for today. Note the orange areas for chaotic storm directional growth and propagation, especially if a weak east coast sea breeze can form. I noticed yesterday that storms over Southeast Florida were behaving as if there was a sea breeze, so I do believe that the configuration of the peninsula (alignment of the SE Coast) in a more prevalent WSW-ENE flow (but weak) might have something to do with it.  Although, a weak 700mb trough associated with Emily (later analyzed after the fact) might have had something to do with the bizarre storm motions over Palm Beach and Broward Counties. That trough has moved offshore, which is probably also why this area is currently so stabilized..on the back side of the trough.  For today, I'm pretending that will have little affect though by early-mid afternoon.
Since this area might not really light up until after 3-4pm...these storms could be strong...mainly due to lightning
as could other activity anywhere along mainly A1A to Playalinda Beach in Brevard. ALSO NOTE: I did not put SW Florida in the afternoon activity...hmmm...still needs to be watched for further development of potential tropical nature.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: More of the same with a twist each day. It does appear though that a good mid-upper level trough will be crossing the state (other than far South Florida) on Wednesday. This could create a much more widespread rain chance..I'm thinking our forecasts might be reading 60 -70% chance of rain almost anywhere on Wednesday by the time we get there.


THURSDAY: Significantly drier North Half of the state..as well as HOT...near record highs possible in the wake of the 700mb trough...the cold front will have gone through..huh? It is a surface front, but in this case the high pressure behind it will not come from the Arctic or Canada, the high pressure will have some of its origins, courtesy of that of Texas Drought Fame. Rain chances go to near Zero along and north of I-4.  Dead Central could still hold on to a rain chance along and south of SR 50 over to North Tampa Bay.
I am watching for the possibility of STRONG STORMS somewhere from Central Osceola County in a triangle toward Miami on the east side (south of Indian River County). Some of the dry air could get entrained in the mid-levels enhancing the lightning and wind gust potential. And with a NW steering flow..storms combined with an odd ball Lake Shadow could really enhance storms over South Palm Beach County toward Miami. In short, Thursday looks like a very bizarre and completely NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL DAY.


FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Given the circumstances...Friday and Saturday will not be so strange..other than we might need to watch that area off the SW Coast of Florida. The GFS keeps hinting at something bizarre as well happening over this time frame. Before it was a low near Tampa..but now it is latching on to that area off the SW Florida coast that is already active with showers (analysis does show a weak cyclonic circulation already)...That area has really flared up with thunderstorms as of sunrise and needs to be monitored. Storms over South Florida and west central working up toward Lake County/Ocala by Saturday.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: A return to a more normal summer like pattern as the Atlantic Ridge axis builds into South Central Florida with all of the state having recovered from the heat as temperatures will have fallen to normal.  Sea breeze convergence storms favoring the east side late but probably remaining west of US1 or I-95 north of Ft. Pierce.


TROPICS: As noted yesterday, there is a Sorry Old Lad (SAL) out there...combined with the Boy King TUTT, the non-dynamic duo whose threats are all but hot air...although they do a good number on tropical systems. But guess what? Our next tropical system might not come from the Atlantic at all! It would come from SW Florida where all that activity is today.  The 700mb trough axis expected to cross most of the state on Wednesday is thought to wash out over far South Florida and merge with this area...Also..for South Florida concerns, the TUTT/SAL team are not expected to impinge on SE Florida and the Keys...but rather remain to the east..fill..then erode and pass south of the straits.


Can't say it always works that way,,,but given the current state of affairs over southwest Florida this morning it sure does look convincing.  That low is forecast to become a depression or minimal storm and track toward the Central Texas Coast much like Bret next week. It also runs into the high pressure drought ridge much like Brett and washes out just off shore. Guidance is showing a big precip bulls-eye near Houston, but I have my doubts...that is shown because the system is forecast to meet up with a 700mb trough..for that reason only. Will that trough be there one week from now?...Heck..that's a long time from now to know such details.

This image shows the Atlantic. I am watching that most eastern wave. The SAL has decreased a bit over the far Western Atlantic..and I'm not seeing the big dry feed continuing at the end of the animation. The most western Sorry Old Lad north of the Dominican Republic is moving little and seems to be rotating over on itself. The TUTT low is forecast to remain in place and slowly cut off there without affecting (drying out) the Keys or extreme South Florida. There also appears to be some circulation in that most eastern wave..and note how the dry air feed ends with that last wave as well...shown by the dashed green line.

Some Strong Storms Far East Central Late Today, Hot Along A1A

First daylight image available of "Emily" this Sunday Morning. Animation clearly shows a motion toward the ENE-NE. Also  visible in the image was hazy (milky) like air south of Emily. There is an upper level, TUTT low analyzed by models approaching the Southern Bahamas extending East and South. (See colored captions)..with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in toe. The dynamic due..abolishers of anything Tropically Stormy in Nature.

TD Emily: To cut to the Tropical Chase first off today, TD Emily is moving toward the ENE-NE this morning as could be seen on satellite animation. It is clearly visible. In its wake is a weak 500mb low NE of the Bahamas responsible for some of the higher cirrus clouds over SE Florida up toward Melbourne. Those should clear out during the course of the late morning to early afternoon. I do not think Emily will strengthen to a Storm, but if it does it would be sub-tropical as it is merging with a trough that pulled off the NE states several days ago...and likely why it seems to be accelerating in forward motion. There is also shearing winds along its projected path. So, if it is named again, it's a matter of semantics...if not who happens to be on shift at the Hurricane Center at the time.


Outside of that storm, we have a strong TUTT (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Trough) moving in south of Emily....This TUTT can be see below:

WHOOPS. This is actually just its mask. An actual image is hard to come by,
because like all TUTT lows SHOULD be, this one is mummified, and shrouded in dust. However, the King
might protect us (United States) for sometime from tropical Systems

 As figures, Tutankhamun was the result of a incestuous relationship and, because of that, may have suffered from several genetic defects that contributed to his early death. For years, scientists have tried to unravel ancient clues as to why the boy king of Egypt, who reigned for 10 years, died at the age of 18. Several theories have been put forth; one was that he was killed by a blow to the head. Another put the blame on a broken leg. As recently as June 2010, German scientists said they believe there is evidence he died of sickle cell disease. 


 However, I have discovered these Boy Kings of the Atlantic Ocean that prevent tropical storm formation and hinder thunderstorms are terrorists...trying to rule a time and place that would normally have rains and storms. This king's death was probably an assault from a stronger arch enemy, an Upper Level Trough from the Great North Territories...the poor sickle celled lad with a broken leg, who probably came from a dysfunctional family never had a chance.


However, I was able to come up with a more recent image now that I dig back:

WHAT THE HECK IS THIS MESS?!!!! Leave it to rulers to screw with the "System"..hey, happens with the National Budget all the time...what we have here, is the tropics being in DEBT of moisture.

No big deal. This (above) shows "Emily" East of Ft. Pierce (although on satellite it now appears to be East of Titusville)...the orange is the TUTT himself...looks like the mummy has turned to dust. Actually, the RED is SAL dust!...Huh? Now there's TUTT and SAL?..SAL is Saharan Air Layer, TUTT's partner in tropical crime protection. The two keep tropical systems away from where ever they are located.  The white, bright line shows the forecast direction of motion of Emily..white as a ghost..as Emily is...Looks about right so far. The yellow line labeled "20" is Shear of 20 knts...This is why I do not think Emily should be renamed..too much shear.


And now for the bigger Tropical Picture:

In purple is the BIG SAL/TUTT (the TUTT itself is not shown, only this mask...as shown in the first image)..The green areas are tropical waves..all of them WEAK...The GFS is bringing one of them..probably one of those last two...as a hurricane into Brownsville Texas in about 15 days..but point is..you can see why there is no tropical worries as more dry air is in the offing...but this could change in 48 hours..so this will continuously need to be monitored. Any dissolving of the mummified dust could change things around pretty quickly...and there's no shortage of energy trying to tap into moist air

FLORIDA WEATHER: To cut to the chase, no change in thinking of previous days..even 4 days ago the GFS has had the pattern nailed and little has changed. Sunday-Thursday (and possibly now Friday). Ridge across the Florida Straits toward Cuba and trough moving , building actually, into the SE will be accompanied by the first GASP! cold front of the 'season'..what season is that? Just normal summer so far I think. It's been a while since one has moved through the NE states. Remember all the heat there? Looking for highs in higher terrain later in the week maybe only in the upper 60Fs..with some 70Fs elsewhere. The front is expected to make it to Southern Georgia if not North Florida in about 4 days..then wash out. Flow will be from the WSW-WNW each day...so that will be the crux of each day's post. That, and the amount of moisture...and the determination of it there will be an east coast sea breeze.


Other than those factors, the other factor will be afternoon high temperatures and heat indices along the A1A corridor from JAX-MIA. Believe that RECORD HIGHS will be set..with some days seeing highs in the mid-upper 90Fs..HOWEVER, this will never be proven, since no official reporting stations which keep these records are located along A1A! In addition, other than Patrick Air Force Base who reports in hourly...who can prove the Heat Indices? It is possible that A1A might be WARMER on some days than some locations in the interior...except perhaps on the lee of Lake Okeechobee. Why would these be records? Because we always have a Sea Breeze in August along A1A...which keeps this area cooler than inland. These temperatures might not be 'exceptionally hot'..but with the summer humidity in place..Heat Indices could vary from 105-115F..as has been indicated at PAFB and on my home station lately...as well as one just 2 miles to my south...  So for today...


TODAY: Not really going to go too in-depth today since the state is in recovery mode of Emily's Haunt...the Ghost has moved on.....it is now time for ReBirth...rather...recovery. Central and South Florida are recovering...South more-so than Central..but barely....


...Believe storms/showers should form along the west coast sea breeze and build east with time. Flow is only about 10 mph..15 mph over North Florida and parts of North Central...since motion is pretty slow, but steady...outflows from the stronger activity after 1pm might advance the west coast sea breeze a bit faster, especially South Florida and North Florida. Believe this will give Central Florida..mainly from Oak Hill toward Ft Pierce to receive a late day (after 3:30pm)  sea breeze which will remain along US1 (or SR 3 even?).. or between US1 and I-95 in North Brevard. Thus, peak heating will have been reached, so there will be no cooling effect at peak heating..only just after it. High's along A1A 93F -97F. But who can prove it? Like stated, there's no stations that report along A1A other than PAFB. North of Oak Hill, there might not be a sea breeze at all.


Thus: I pulled out the crayolas and came up with this after connecting the dots:

POSSIBLY, stronger storms in Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin...or Palm Beach County due to late day sea breeze or the Lake Shadow (SE Florida) . Could be some squirrely mechanisms at play near Ft. Lauderdale as well.

**NOTE: Although not sketched in, I'm also watching for the possibility of another, secondary area very close to Daytona to Ormond Beach. This area might actually receive a vorticity max late today..totally unrelated to normal summer time fare. But just where that will be, if it even is, could be as far north as Ormond/JAX or as far south as Titusville. Thus, if big storms form along this area in the absence of a sea breeze, that is why. Showers, light rain could linger mostly over Brevard County until mid-evening.


MONDAY-THURSDAY: More of the daily grind, figuring out where moisture, sea breeze development, etc..will occur. In general, the East Coast is favored for the mid-afternoon to early evening storms..although on at least one day they could start up as soon as 11AM to noon. We might be able to through Friday into the mix.


Also, the SAL associated with TUTT might begin to reduce rain chances, mainly for the Keys and extreme Southern Dade or inland Monroe counties by Wednesday...otherwise, it is expected to persist for quite some time. This might be why the GFS is leaving tropical entities far away from the state...but again, that could change quickly over a 48 hour period.

Headlines Abound: Emily's Memory, Heat Indices, and Lightning

11:30AM Visible Satellite Image Courtesy of Weathertap.com. Yellow arrows show upper level outflow with the exception of the one in the NE Corner showing a thunderstorm Outflow Boundary. The orange line is the general location of the low to mid-level trough axis associated with what was Emily. This trough, in monitoring since 7AM, is drifting North and maybe even to the NNE.

TODAY: Very tricky transition day!! The transition consists of the remnants of Emily pulling out to the N-NNE and eventually NE-ENE through tonight. This system will NOT affect Florida directly, but the wind fields and dry-slots at various levels of the atmosphere (in different locations) will through today and tonight. 


In other words, the atmosphere over much of Florida is variegated. There is irrefragable proof as you will see in the images that follow.


 In NO LOCATION do values 'stack up' favoring rainfall...until possibly after or near dark tonight. Thus, the majority of the day will be spent readjusting, relaxing, waxing and waning...which leads to the first 3/4 of the day depending on Lake and Sea-breeze boundaries to interact to create thunder or showers.

It is easier to show the transformation and what is happening today via PICTURES...Please See captions:

Here shows the location of the low-level trough at 2000FT..the one at the surface is further west and very close to the East coast. It runs from the Upper Keys to Cape Canaveral. The dark green shows where the most low level moisture is located...SE Florida and North Florida. Enough for showers over SE Florida..BUT WHERE ARE THEY? All models show that by this time SE Florida should be covered in rain showers. Believe they will form over Interior Broward and Dade and Palm Beach Counties toward the Everglades shortly but high cirrus clouds might dampen their spirits to only showers..perhaps a thunderstorm where convergence is best. But high clouds are closing in...will they have an effect? To some degree I think they will.

Then we have the mid-levels of the atmosphere:

Moisture and wind at around 700mb (10,000ft) shows that South Florida is being dry slotted by the back side of the trough offshore, whereas the mid-level moisture is circled. This has changed almost zero since 7am...Overall, a part of North Florida has the best combination of moisture right now.  The greatest instability resides along  the mid-level moisture, mostly offshore. The area around the Cape and near Tampa has very high instability...perhaps to be tapped into with the sea breezes from early  afternoon through tonight.

FOR EARLIER TODAY: The Lake Breeze, Everglades "Affect" could generate some storms...but cirrus MIGHT put a damper on this activity. Hard to say for sure. The FURTHER the remnants of Emily move AWAY from Florida..the better the chances of rain and storms earlier... as time progresses, activity could get steered toward the SE coast, especially after 4pm. The dry air in the mid-levels over SE Florida seems to be preventing storms to form..but once they can...look out for lightning and wind gusts.  SEE CAPTIONS:

This is an example of where Earlier Afternoon activity COULD occur. Please read the captions. Note the affect of the Lake and Sea breezes could create some storms..but bear in mind, the mid-levels are pretty dry..so if one can get going..lightning FAR REMOVED from a storm is possible.!!  Same goes for North Florida. But do see those high clouds off the coast of SE Florida associated with storms over the Bahamas. Upper levels winds are projected to advect  (or carry/project) those clouds into South Florida heading into the afternoon...this might put the kabosh on the storms..but so far..the trough seems to be moving away...just enough to keep those cirrus clouds thin enough to allow development.

LATE AFTERNOON/MIDNIGHT: Believe the Trough (Sloth) of Emily's Memory (aka, Casper) will never develop into anything. However, as it pulls away, mid-level winds (as well as surface winds near dark)...will back toward  becoming from the NW-W rather than the NE as they are now, especially headed toward sunset and beyond. Activity from North Florida could send outflow boundaries East and South, whereas any activity over South and far South Central in Okeechobee and Martin Counties could send boundaries Northward.  Thus, those boundaries combined with increased low level moisture running from Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Western Volusia, Lake, Marion, and Flagler Counties could result in a 'string of pearls' along the St. Johns River Valley and into the Basin from JAX to near or East of Orlando. I'm also seeing a signal that with the high clouds having moved out (although after dark they have little impact)...A part of Palm Beach or Martin County could see some nocturnal activity.  If this activity can sustain itself in the middle of the night..it COULD even reach the barrier islands or A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral to JAX between 10pm to 2am. 


Bear in mind, this is a big transition day. These days are very hard to predict in the summer, since there is no previous day to compare it to in regard to storm strength, motion, and how long they will last. However, last night's activity over the west side of the state lasted until 3AM...so perhaps we can take that as a sign.  FOR TONIGHT, below:

READ CAPTIONS. This is the current radar..note the lack of showers over SE Florida. This might have changed by the time I finished writing up this post, which takes about an hour.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY: Headlines should read: HOT along A1A from JAX to Miami. Some record highs possible. Humid, with threatening heat indices...esp. Monday and Tuesday along A1A. Some strong storms possible near the East Coast late day to early evening near SE Florida, Brevard, and North to JAX...mainly Sunday and Wednesday.  Monday and Tuesday might not see a sea breeze at all...so chances of thunder might be limited. But, given the strong west to east steering aloft and moist air forecast, showers could evolve into storms from the west coast sea breeze as they progress toward A1A. Also note, there is a TUTT trough approaching the Florida Straits. It appears impacts from that will be limited to far South Florida and the Keys. If so, showers and storms might be limited to near zero on Monday or Tuesday...just have to see what happens with that entity in the next day or so.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Transition into more generic of days with the heat relaxing a small bit. By Friday...a tropical wave might be disrupting (or even Thursday) the cycle so fun -n-games forecasting will be in the cards....which leads to the TROPICS:


TROPICS: Many tropical waves are pooping up...Yes..so far Pooping Up...popping up (typo)...over the Atlantic between Emily's Memory and Africa. It does appear that the period from August  12 through the 17th might be full of tropical discussions regarding this activity. Especially as we approach the 22nd. The one thing I want to point out is that all of these waves so far are projected to come off Africa at around 7-10 degrees north latitude. This is very far south..for an Atlantic entrance...and favors activity to threaten Puerto Rico time and time again...taking a track similar to Emily...Storms that can develop and pass north of Puerto Rico could threaten the U.S. East Coast from Florida to North Carolina...and those that pass south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could impact the Gulf side from Louisiana to NW Florida...and then there's those that go 'in between'. Just a heads up....NOW is the time to take casual preparations in one's spare time as the urge strikes...if in no other form than a mental or written checklist....

Friendly Emily Not Such a Big Scare Afterall

EMILY to mostly play peek-a-BOO with Florida and the Bahamas as the storm
becomes divided in the mid-levels with little to no closed surface circulation. Lets face it, Emily died in the Tropical Storm graveyard of the Dominican Republic...Rest in Peace...

EMILY: Going to discuss the remnant lows of Emily..rather troughs so far...of Tropical Storm Emily because this synoptic scale feature will affect the weather over Florida through Mid-Day Sunday (at least).  Current, only a mid-level circulation can be located at the based of a mid-level trough which extend well to the NE of Cuba east of the Bahamas. The Portion very near Cuba might creep north a bit more, but will likely wash out due to shear further north. The spooky area off toward the Bahamas is the only saving grace for the storm to regenerate I'd think, but even if it did it would be nothing more than a Sub-tropical, ghostly low as it meets up with a frontal boundary off the U.S. East Coast. Zombie Emily is over Cuba.

This is the 850mb RUC forecast for 2pm today...you can see it has two closed areas..but that are actually open. The one over Cuba might drift WSW while the other should pivot off the the North to NNE. Note those winds of 30 KTS shown. These are expected to continue..perhaps up to storm strength at the lower levels, but there is never a truly closed circulation. For that, I suspect the winds are being created by pressure gradient winds between the Trough of Emily and strong, summer time high pressure over the Atlantic.  If it can organize, it would be with help of a front off the U.S. East Coast. Thus, no threat to the U.S....and any re-naming will be at the jurisdiction of the Hurricane Center for whatever reason.

Here's is one reason why I would not expect the storm to develop. Wind shear. Although there is very little to no shear in the storms current location, there is shear everywhere else.

Only 5 knts of shear in current location but 20 to 30iknts everywhere else...Not that we will likely see a flare up of convection off to the East of the Bahamas due to wind shear/pressure gradient winds (for stronger winds) out there..but it should not be a full tropical nature, nor completely closed.

ON TO BIGGER AND BETTER THINGS: Well, not necessarily for a few days still. Not much has really changed over Florida other than the perfect summer weather we have had lately. It's not summer unless you can break into perspiration while going outside in the mid-afternoon to check the mail. And that will be the case the next few days ahead. 


Overall, Emily's remains will haunt only as a barely detectable, friendly entity... not seeing a big surge in moisture except maybe the SE Coast to East Central Florida heading into later Saturday...but in general, nothing more than a good, moist, summer day.  It will not be until at least mid-day Sunday that the effects of the system should start to move out so that things can get back to a variation of 'normal'.  


TODAY: Showers and some thunder as shown, mostly late today. Shower activity should be very isolated until after 4pm when they might increase in number, with a mix of some thunder thrown in.

There really is nothing special to see here other than to note Southeast Florida. There is the remote chance that showers and maybe some thunder could move into SE Florida toward or after dark through 11pm tonight. Just a gander on that one. Otherwise, it should remain farily dry today down there.  The main players today will be the East Coast sea breeze and the Lake Okeechobee breeze...but for the most part expecting most storms to be over Polk and Lake Counties...Pinellas and Hillsborough.

SATURDAY should be close to the same...although this day and SUNDAY both are dependent upon what Casper..er, Emily..does. No big wash outs expected but the chance of thunder increases toward Central and East Florida later in the afternoon.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Looks like both of these days will favor the far East side of the state for showers. It will be very warm at the beach-side, east of I-95 with the potential for no sea breeze on one or both of these days. If that is the case on one or both days, most precipitation might be only rain showers rather than thunder over land..maybe becoming thunderstorms off shore.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These might be the days for strong storms over the interior working toward the east coast later in the day with some cooler air aloft. Beyond Thursday things get very fuzzy, although the GFS continues to show rain chances...the wind fields look very suspicious in the mid-levels..so we'll have to wait and see what will come out of this. I think that for the time being official outlets are just riding on climatology and persistence of the previous days for now..due to how far away Thursday is from today. Thus, the better chances of rain continue to be broadcast ...in the past, the GFS has been becoming very sketchy around the 13th or 14th...so it does look like sometime around next Sunday the rain chances might go down..pending arrival of either another continental U.S. trough for more thunderstorms OR..the arrival of a tropical wave..which at this point is looking unlikely due to the current dry air well west of the next wave of the charts coming off of Africa.