Much Less Storm Coverage Today - Special Tropical Weather Highlight

IMAGE DEPICTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4

 TODAY: Dry SE and light flow now exists for the mid-levels along and south of I-4 this morning. There is still ample moisture for onshore moving showers across SE Florida south of Vero, but most of the showers to reach the coast should occur at or south of Ft. Pierce to Miami during the earlier part of the day.
Thunderstorms are more likely toward Gainesville and north to the I-10 speed strip.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: SE Florida up toward perhaps Vero or Southern Brevard Could get in on to more of a weather regime similar to that of yesterday...and they should also occur along to just south of I-4..mostly over the interior working toward the west side late in the day. Actually, Monday and more so Tuesday looks like a very typical summer pattern...one that we have really not seen yet this year..so who's to say, really..it will actually occur even then at the rate things have panned out this summer.


The reason for the showers/storms this past month and most of July has been the high pressure over Texas and large low pressure systems residing up in Canada. Those systems are sounding short waves troughs in the mid levels SE ward...they ride over the ridge over the Southern Plains..take a dip toward Florida..then pull out to the East and North after two to three days.  As long as neither feature moves much, which has been the case for quite some time..little will change...the next trough is expected on Late Monday through Late Tuesday..thus the increase in showers/thunder. However, this next trough is not expected to make quite the dip into Florida as those in the past.


The trough should then be lifting on out, temporarily reducing rain chances, during which time Tropical Storm Irene (and perhaps Hurricane Irene by 24-48 hours)...will move W or WNW toward Haiti or the Dominican Republic or both.  It is when that trough lifts out that Irene is expected to start making a curve toward the NW.

After Midnight, Early Tuesday. We see the surface front with the midlevel trough at higher altitude in almost the same location, Another front is approaching..Meanwhile, High pressure ridges at the surface from the Ohio Valley into Texas. This front will make it no further south..and pull out east and north as high pressure folds back over to the east to replace the departing trough. This same front should be bringing some active weather to the NE Today and possibly tomorrow...toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Also note the low near the Yucatan. This is a remnant of Tropical Storm Harvey...it is not expected to move much..which in turn ..acting like two magnets of equal charge..are repelled..that being Harvey and Irene. This might be the extra umpfpah to deflect Irene toward the WNW-NW.

Note: Irene is not looking to be a 'small ' storm by any means.  Actually, by the looks of it, by the time it gets toward Cuba'a north shore (assuming it curves)...it could look MAMMOTH. The set up is there already.

In the center is Irene..and nearly how large the cloud canopy of this storm could become. The actual storm force winds are much smaller..but it might start to look very impressive on satellite imagery by Tuesday. Note that the dry SAL air (Saharan shown in orange)..north of the circulation in general..is thinning out..the system also has an interesting banding feature ahead of it..I'm thinking that might be a barrier to protect it taking shape..in essence acting like a snow plow..or in this case..
a 'SAL Plow'. Also note what is behind Irene coming off of Africa.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: One can only assume at this point that Irene will still exists as nearly all the models indicate will be the case. So with that notion...the weather beginning Thursday (CENTRAL..much earlier South Florida)..would begin to be directly impacted by the storm..with increasing onshore moving rain-showers becoming a bit 'squally' ..mainly on Thursday




THURSDAY: Rainshowers  becoming squalls along the coast mainly progressing further inland with time. Each band of showers to approach..or every other one..could bring in some stronger wind gusts from and easterly component.  By late afternoon, if all falls according to the GFS and EURO..the beaches would begin to experience tropical storm force gusts on Thursday afternoon..becoming progressively stronger and eventually sustained. All of this would occur over South Florida in the same fashion..only about 24 hours sooner. So that by Thursday afternoon they would be increasing to hurricane force. At this point it is also possible that much of the south half of the state will be in a tornado watch.


FRIDAY: Per the GFS, Hurricane force winds would work into all of the east half of Central Florida shortly before day break..and last ALL DAY sustained. I've looked at some of the intensity plots..and took a mean wind by discounting the Category 5 wind depicted and completely eliminated the low end tropical depression winds namely because a system of that strength would likely never make it here. So, under that assumption..it would be the east half of the state to bear the brunt of long duration on shore winds feeding into Canaveral Bight/Sebastian Inlet, and that of Ft. Pierce. 


SATURDAY: It is interesting that the GFS slows the forward motion of the system over Central Florida. That would be because at that point it would be awaiting the next trough to come on in and pull it through..lifting it north and east with time. Central could be in tropical storm force SUSTAINED winds again all day Saturday through midnight...but rains will decrease significantly.


SUNDAY: All a faded memory...with a resumption of showers and thunder by Tuesday...however, like with all tropical systems..this storm could be dragging plentiful moisture in with it dragging behind like wet mop...some showers could actually be pretty potent thunderstorms a few days after the storm passes.

GFS

These are depiction samples only: On one hand, they are not meant to scare anyone..since so much can change between now and Tuesday or Wednesday..and right up to the time of any actual event in regard to placement AND strength...if the system is even 50 miles more toward to east of these images..the overall impact would be greatly reduced in many many ways in regard to total rainfall and upwind swelling of the intracoastal waterways.

ECMWF

On the other hand.....It is a bit scary to think that winds as depicted in that first image could hang around for a full 24 hours (hurricane strength)..this seems unlikely. That was as of the 00z run last night. I believe the later runs moves the strongest winds through in 18-24 hours.  Note that the strongest winds are on the east side of the storm.


THUS, if it were to actually move toward Orlando or Tampa.the east coast is still in the wind and heaviest rainfall..which could add up to anywhere from 7-12" by the time all is said and done.


That would be the downfall if it did not pass directly overhead...combined with a larger tornado risk on the east side of the tropical entity...rivers could still over run the causeways combined with heavy rain fall if a strong Cat 2 went up the spine of the state. Talk about MASS evacuation.


On yet another hand..or are we resorting to feet now...: If Irene dawdles over Cuba for too long..it might not get picked up by the next trough...at which point..all bets are off and Florida would likely be spared a major, significant, or even blase' 
storm..if any at all. 


I'm mainly showing these Graphic Images (both literally and figuratively) to at least arouse ones eye lids off the morning cup of coffee and the funnies. The August 11th..."Are you Ready..UPDATE"...has been revised..see the blog and the link..or refer to this one here: It is chock full of some stats and other thoughts, as well as a check list...for preparation: And in that light..


http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/2011/08/are-you-ready-tropical-weather.html


BEWARE: The minute a watch is issued (if need be)..all hellvectica is going to break lose on the roads and at the stores. Expect supplies of every sort to dwindle off the shelves..rather be ripped off them in rapid, uptick fashion. Drive carefully and calmly...watching out for 'the crazies'.


START THINKING ABOUT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO OR AT LEAST, WOULD DO. If there was no need to act, nothing lost. But it sure beats panicking at the last minute and getting caught up in all the hype with your panties in a wad.


Realize..that evacuation for anyone on the east coast might be required even if the storm is forecast to narrowly miss to the east...if it stalls offshore..or even if it suddenly were to close in on the coast (per David of 1979)...then there would be no time to leave or react in a large scale. Thus, just to play it safe ... depending on future developments in strength and course...at least monitor the updates as they come out two or three times a day at . Refer only to RELIABLE and official sources..and no one else. The rumor mill will be churning butter faster than you can make bread...and it might start even today from the looks of what I just saw on The Weather Channel.


TIMING: That could also be an issue. I've referred to a time frame only as an example..the storm is unlikely to speed up..especially over the mountains (or near them) of Haiti and Western Cuba...if the storm center misses both of those areas and arcs into Central Cuba..the mere overall size of its interior and exterior circulations will see that part of Cuba as nothing more than a bump in the road..a ripple in the walk of life...an irritating itch.  And who's to say the storm couldn't strengthen over the Glades/Lake Okeechobee? How much risk is Emergency Management willing to take? I bet they are already "Sweatin Bullets"...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRJ99wuV1ng

"No model defenestration can yet be made...it is too soon lest one do so.. only to suffer from objurgation; when what once was..no longer is." (self)


Thought I'd throw this in. Like in 1964 (Cleo/Dora..see blog link above), the fun is in no way over yet....

Off to the right..circled in blue..is an experimental outlook through mid September..hunt out Florida to get your bearings 

 

Much Kerfuffle over Tropical Weather Vaticination , Little Room for Defenestration Looks Imposing

Green is Showers, Orange is Thunder

TODAY: So far today is shaping up like yesterday with some minor differences. Temps aloft are pretty warm...sea breezes barely getting started but showers forming readily.  The strongest activity with some lightning should be after 3pm to 8pm..over Lake/Polk Counties and perhaps near the attractions...up through western Volusia.  The trend has been every day for more showers vs. thunder, so will ride with that one for now..although once boundary interactions begin is when we will know what potential lies within the beast's true nature later in the afternoon. Likely, the only thunder will be with the sea breeze convergence which looks to be strongest over West Central Polk County toward Southern Lake County.  Otherwise, a disturbance aloft might set off a stronger storms west of the St. Johns river in Volusia to west of St. Augustine...and mergers in Polk County looks to be a 'hot spot' as well...at the risk of sounding toplofty...I'm not looking to see strong thunderstorms today...But again, we won't really know until  late..and a lot could change during the course of the day.

Oddly, the impression I get is that inland activity will send outflows back toward the coasts..so that once again the I95 to US1 regions could get a second shot at storms in the early evening as the sun begins to set almost anywhere south of I-4...including all of South Florida.  However, coverage of said activity should represent a respectable rug of coverage when all is complete from mid afternoon through sunset ...

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Look very similar in nature..with less thunder..and more showers as warm air aloft starts to work in more and more . That warm air could be an omen though...for the tropics.

WEDNESDAY: Drier most everywhere..and this is where the tropics comes in to play..as whatever goes on down there comes into play

THURSDAY BEYOND: Very good argument for something of tropical nature to affect much of the state in some form or another..either much wetter or much drier depending upon what track 'something tropical this way comes"...The main player models are tracking (implying) a low end hurricane up to strong Cat 1 to cross the state..making an entrance on either the SW or SE Coast.

I looked into some history..the tracks are close to Cleo and David..with a bit of Charlie thrown in.  These were La Nina Years...or going on La Nina (not sure about Cleo)...and 50 years ago..close to the Cleo time frame...there was one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Sound familiar?!  Here's are the tracks of David and Cleo...and what the GFS  (below) and European model portray as of early this morning at 2AM.

The NAM is more in line with the Euro favoring a dead South Central entrance off of Central Cuba.

With that said, this leaves out how strong it would be. The Euro implies strengthening over the Everglades...good call on its part if that course of action takes place. These both look like Cat 1 hurricanes..with winds of 75G95 (Possibly) all on the east side of the storm...

AGAIN..this is NOT to say this is what will happen. However, all but 2 of the statistical models indicate that in the past...history dictates this course of action...all other things withstanding.  If the system comes off the Great Antilles greatly weakened..it as 2 of the models of statistical nature show...the storm will never impact Florida at all.

Showers and Mid to Late Afternoon Thunderstorms Most of the Peninsula Today

One of the many signs along coastal, hurricane prone areas of the U.S. Meanwhile, a thunder storm is in the background over far West Cocoa near the Lone Cabbage Fish Camp on SR520

TODAY THRU SUNDAY: Today looks a lot like yesterday, with noon to 3pm showers and some thunder storms forming on the sea breezes and around the lakes..most of these should be 'weak'..the strongest could generate a few lightning strikes. As the day progresses and sea breezes start to approach each other (the east coast one more progressive especially after 3pm...)..stronger storms will from along and west of I-95..with a few in Martin and St. Lucy and perhaps Indian River County affecting the immediate coast.  One thunder storm might go up over the Merritt Island WLR...but of short duration..and it would have to be as the sea breeze starts to gain momentum.  Otherwise, by late afternoon the concentration of storms generated by Lake and sea breezes will generate other boundaries for the strongest of storms after 5-6pm through 7:30pm. I'm not seeing any early day outflow boundaries at this time...and there is less shower activity today over yesterday...so the stronger storms might hold off a little later...or coverage near the coast along or near US1 might be less..but that should have little bearing on the eventual outcome later today...


The other difference today is that there is no marine outflow boundaries approaching SE Florida as showers are now forming along the sea breeze there.

GREEN: Light Rain Possible  ORANGE: Thunder at a location or could be heard from a distance  PURPLE: Most concentration of activity, perhaps more toward the west, especially the portion over Orange and Osceola Counties.

SAT: Same deal, except a storm could impact the immediate coast very late toward evening in Brevard or Volusia (southern) County.


SUNDAY: More like today will be...so not a whole lot to say in this typical summertime regime with nothing standing out as of late morning today.


MONDAY: Storms will form near the east side and work west into the mid-late afternoon. The air mass will be drying out some as well...so do not believe there will be as much coverage...but that..we will have to wait and see.

TROPICS: The GFS continues to generate a strong tropical storm or Hurricane that first impacts the Dominican Republic ..Haiti and Cuba. Depending on how north the system is located will eventually determine how or if it will impact the United States (namely Florida OR the Carolinas). The GFS, as mentioned yesterday implied it could hit the Houston area, but the following run reverted back toward the Keys and up toward Tallahassee. Meanwhile, last night's Euro model showed a track like this (bear in mind, this is just a forecast track..and does not include any stalling the system might do over or near land). Also bear in mind, that the system would be tracking across a lot of land mass. What the GFS has been implying is that if steers west of the state (toward Pensacola for example, it regenerates rapidly from the warm waters of the Florida Straits and the Gulf before making a final landfall on the Gulf Coast:

This is just one part of a FORECAST TRACK...on Saturday or Sunday...just an example
This system might not even develop at all..but it's looking pretty unlikely that will be the case.
It is possible the storm could altogether miss the U.S. if it tracks too far south as the latest GFS now coming out as I type would imply..the ridge over Texas is expected to hold it's grip...

The latest GFS is just coming out now...and it shows a track along the Southern Coast of Cuba (it has varied between the North and South Coasts for about 8 runs of the model..that is VERY CONSISTENT  ..then a curve toward the NW-NNW while SSW of Florida...it looks like its track will closely mirror the one shown above by the time all is said and done...I wait to let it complete before posting today's writing:


As you can seen, the GFS disagrees with that other model..but is staying pretty close to the run made earlier today.

SAMPLE: This could easily NOT occur at all...this is for next Saturday

Standard Florida Summer Weather With a Wrench

Thunderstorms Offshore The Cape's Point At Sunset Wednesday Evening

TODAY: The overall synoptic scale pattern has changed only a little from yesterday. Moisture is most deep over the Southern 1/3 of the state..but only by about 0.1" ..otherwise, vast moisture rules... Sea breezes are relatively light at both coasts at 1pm..and a Lake Breeze reveals the prevalent low level flow from the SSE per its shadow (as that the sky has cleared out upstream of the lake). Either side of that shadow will be the next area for a thunderstorm to form, aside from random short - lived showers and a thunderclap or two along either of the sea breezes as they progress only slowly inland. Steering today is mostly straight up the state with a slight curve toward the east coast north of Brevard County. But, these winds are so light that even a sea breeze boundary will prevent storms from crossing it.  Any mid-level boundary over the state is all but gone, but another is on the way overnight ...in essence, the state is in a 'state of limbo'...typical summer...


There is one other factor today though, not of normal summer fanfare. That being, storms over the Atlantic Ocean. They are setting off outflow boundaries toward the East Coast...in fact, an earlier one sparked some showers and brief thunder from near Ft. Pierce to KSC as it moved up the east coast before the sea breeze has set in...


With other activity from other offshore outflows and the SE Coast Sea breeze setting wheels in motion eventually for thunder, some strong..over the Glades..likely the strongest storm there will be just south of Lake Okeechobee today as both sea breezes work in and react with a light backward Lake Breeze. The area in the open SW area of the state also looks like a good bet for multiple and repeated outflow interactions. SW Florida could become a washing machine of showers and storms today.


Otherwise, I took a gamble today to bet on those outflows well offshore to affect the weather near the east coast toward Vero/Ft Pierce by mid-afternoon. Remaining boundaries from earlier showers, the Lake Breeze, and the sea-breeze/outflows and contraflows approaching the coast could set off some big storms toward interior Indian River and Martin Counties (dependent on the sea breeze in the area though)..or..uncluttered but transparent lake breeze...these storms could collapse and send outflows up the east coast sea breeze by which time it will be west of I-95. Chain reactions could set off more storms toward Kenansville. Yeehaw Junction, and perhaps as far north as Deer Park toward dinner time or near 532 in North Osceola County.


Elsewhere...I'd only expect the sea breezes to meet toward North Florida...but even so, whether it occurs there or anywhere else, it will be a very diffuse 'collision'. That being because it is likely that outflows from other storms will have already corrupted the state so extensively that the actually sea breeze collision time might be difficult to decipher.


Strong storms are not expected, although a pulse stronger storm at a three or even four point boundary collision could generate a period of frequent lightning. Those will be very isolated.

ON THE OTHER HAND: If storms cannot not chain reaction with that outflow shown approaching the SE Coast...then the best bet for storms will be SW Florida..the interior and toward the west side south of Orlando...

FRIDAY: Another mid-level trough should approach the state, and by all indications might get into North Central Florida by Saturday. Sea breezes should be delayed a bit, with more of a SW toward the NE steering, albeit pretty weak. This should keep the east coast sea breeze glued closer toward the coast or at least delay it until after 1pm...so Lake/sea breeze collisions again toward Lake Okeechobee/Vero/Ft Pierce will come more into play once again...with a west/east coast sea breeze collision more toward the east of dead central.  With that mid-level trough approaching the state throughout the day, storms should become more vigorous working into late afternoon toward eastern Osceola /Orange/Seminole/Western Volusia...while over South Florida all activity should be over the Glades and just west of the metros.


SAT/SUN: More like today...although some drier air might work into SE Florida or even North Florida as well. Oddly, the GFS wants to leave the 700mb boundary in a state of decay over dead Central..with a focus on the synoptic scale anywhere along that boundary coast to coast over Central Florida..with light winds otherwise...this most certainly will not be the whole story though...and will need to be re-evaluated when we draw closer to a realistic time frame while at the same time monitoring 3 more model runs between now and then.


TROPICS: The GFS has been consistent with now Six (6) Model runs of bringing a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane into Florida later next week...so this bears watching. Originally, the swath of error many many days ago could have been Mexico to South Carolina. This was mentioned and even shown in a graphic.  But in the past two days (including that last two of 2AM and 8AM)...the track has been toward the Central or Upper Keys toward the Tampa Area. They system shown is not a small one...a size that would impact the entire state in some form or another. The strongest winds shown are on the East Side of the system over the Interior and East coast, thus, it is important not to focus on the center of the storm only.... Something to bear in mind...the press is already starting to hit on this notion..so do not believe any one will be taken by surprise should such a scenario even come to fruition at all......

Broader Expanse of Rain and Thunder Type Storms

Mid-level instability over Florida at Dusk Made for Yet Another Eye Candy Like Sunset Tuesday Evening

TODAY: Not a whole lot different today from yesterday, but there are some differences. It easier to state those differences then to obsess over the entire synoptic scale set up, which all in all is quite uneventful filled with misleading benignessisities.


1. Unlike yesterday, there is a more even distribution of instability over much of the state


2. The day is starting out with high moisture values as of noon , mainly across the state from east to west from Central Lake Okeechobee north to a line from South of Daytona to South of Cedar Key (Brooksville). All in all though, even the area as far north as St. Augustine has ample moisture which could generate more of its own west of the St. Johns River. The only place that really wouldn't  support thunderstorms, at least not until quite late today is far SE Florida from Boynton Beach toward South of Naples. THunderstorms might be able to work into that area, but right now really do not think so.


3.  There is no vorticity generation potential except across NE Florida from near Mims NNW toward east of Tallahassee...east of that line.   Temperatures aloft started out cooler than yesterday, but are forecast to warm during the mid afternoon to those comparable to yesterday.


4. Sea breezes are starting out earlier, with steering toward the WNW a bit weaker. This could clear out the immediate coast for Brevard County and north...until later today..in which case activity would have to approach from the west later...but not by much..perhaps between US1 to I-95.


5. These is a weak inverted trough extending from an equally weak low pressure circulation over Tampa Bay...this could aid in waterspout development there if early activity allows for later regenration of storms..most storms today will be south of this inverted trough-like boundary. Oddly, the RUC forecasts this circulation to make inland penetration by mid- afternoon for a few hours before retreating. If so, activity could really pick up after 3pm...although for now..that might do so more toward the west side.

In a nut shell, storm motions will mostly be dictated by boundary interactions by mid-afternoon during the height of the day's activity, 3-6pm, but initially be from the SW at about 10mph..perhaps up to 15mph for a time just north of Lake Okeechobee.  There might be a brief lull in activity during the early afternoon during peak heating (especially on the eastern 1/3 of the state...this will allow the east coast sea breeze to work west of I-95 mainly north of Titusville. and south of Boyton Beach....in this area it will progress a bit further toward the NW and W.


There appears to be a chance of waterspouts over Lake Okeechobee and perhaps near the Titusville area...and possibly along the shore line from Vero Beach toward Martin County...later during the mid-afternoon.


The only real hazards I see today otherwise are lightning strikes.  Localized street flooding possible over the Central Interior where storms linger during the late afternoon and into the early evening .


It is also possible that the activity south of Lake Okeechobee will only have a 'one shot' deal at a storm today. That being because anvil winds are forecast to spread from north to south today..which would shut off the heat supply far south from storms further north. However, SW FLorida is exempt from this factor.


Waterspouts could occur along the east coast almost anywhere early, but at this time the least favorable area for storms is most of the east side from Canaveral to West Palm..thus, activity might not get going in this area until sea/lake breeze mergers occur near the Big Lake...it is possible the far east coast south of Titusville will not see storms until later today as inland activity spreads ENE ward, sending outflow boundaries further east with time. This is just a guess, but the scenario has been depicted in one piece of forecast guidance. The areas east of Lake Okeechobee is not included in this though..and is most likely to have a storm cross off shore earlier today .

Tampa Area Could Easily Recover from early activity by mid-afternoon..at which point a waterspout could occur with a storm. In red, are where spouts could also occur before 3pm..other than North Florida...maybe a stronger storm there. The spout locations were chosen because localized but dormant low level boundaries might be residing there after convection which died out last night. There was a good outflow thru Canaveral last night..producing some winds gusts from Cape Canaveral out to the Cape...that wind was from the SE..but has since retreated. But even still...there could be some unobvious swirling going on just under 'the waters'. Same applies toward Lake Okeechobee where an outflow boundary ended up.

TONIGHT: It is also possible that a random storm or three could occur in an adventitious locations not otherwise specified.  Like last night, storms were able to go up and last until shortly before sunrise. This was actually depicted by models by afternoon to occur, just not where they were forecast to occur.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Looking more like another variation of the same theme, but with perhaps a sturdier steering of storms from SW to NE on Friday or Saturday...but most of this activity will likely start out away from any coast (but not by far)..and work offshore later these days after 4pm. This will have to be reassessed tomorrow.

Strong Storms Possible Port St. John to Vero/Ft. Pierce Late Today

See Colored Captions For Details Regarding rainfall today and types of rainfall. Showers vs. Storms, some strong due to wind gusts and frequent to excessive lightning. Big rainfall totals possible along and west of US1 toward the eastern interior of Central (Eastern Orange/Osceola Counties) as storms decay and slow in forward motion after 7:30pm

Sunset Last Night

TODAY: After what felt like a prelude to fall last night and early this morning over North Central and North Florida (Crestview got down to 62F this morning)....summer should retrograde back in to Central by early afternoon from the South and West.


Very warm to near record highs possible from Melbourne to Daytona before 3pm with highs in the mid-90Fs..although an upper 90F isn't out of the question toward the DAB airport.


FACTORS TODAY: 
1)Energy is approaching the state from the NNW out of Western GA and Eastern AL this morning. It is not forecast to quite reach Central, but could brush Daytona. Either way, it will provide lift as it approaches in the upper levels.  

2) Moisture will increase slowly in the mid levels from the south now down by Southern Brevard..it is in the process of doing so as of 11AM.  The surface front over N. Florida is washing out today so that mid level steering from the SW will be dictated more by high pressure over the SE Atlantic (which would bring Gulf moisture in from the SW) rather than from the continent. This should advect (bring in) more mid level moisture to roughly south of I-4. Instability is greatest over Central Florida running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral right now...and has been since sunrise, but covers a swath..mostly to the south..toward Vero Beach. This will mount during the day, since rain is expected later on the east side (mid-afternoon or a bit sooner).  


Interesting that, for 3 hours, latest ACTUALS are showing a band of good VGP ...in the low to mid levels..Vorticity Generation Potential. Vorticity will aid to stir things up...and then consider..in the upper levels as mentioned above some energy (vorticity) is coming down from the Deep South. Those factors, combined with coastal helicity (spin in a different plane / direction working with the vortictiy (spin) on a three dimensional cube...could add punch to thunderstorms right at the sea breeze collision as the west coast sea breeze works east during the early afternoon hours.

SEE TEXT

3) Jet stream winds are showing a bit of divergence after 7pm tonight over the North Half of the state reaching almost  toward Melbourne. This is in question though.

4) Delayed sea breeze expected north of Sebastian and should only make inland penetration to about as far west as I-95 or eastern Orange/Osceola Counties...or, only little sea breeze inland penetration until after 4pm...it could strengthen 'upriver' at that time through 6pm in Indian River and Brevard counties.


5) Lake Shadow  (mainly on the north side) and sea breeze conflicting with a gentle SW flow aloft could generate strong storms from Ft. Pierce to Vero..and possibly along the North side of Lake Okeechobee since this area is on the cusp of higher instability to the north.


These factors above should result in Eastward moving storms at 10mph; however, like always, any outflow boundary projected outward in any direction from a storm will aid in storm strength or growth elsewhere, accelerate the west coast seabreeze to the east...as well as completely scour out other areas from receiving rain. It's all in the additive timing factors and location of where these conjoin to make the strongest storms. 


I'd think at least one storm will cross to the barrier islands and out to sea by Daytona if they can get one up there..maybe a bit south of there...and off South Brevard/Ft Pierce area.  


SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Do not believe SE Florida will see as much activity today. With an earlier sea breeze and still very unfavorable for storm formation as of 11AM. Even if it does recover quickly it might be too late for sea breeze/land breeze mergers to perform up to par, especially since the air is dry air behind the sea breeze. I was thinking SW Florida might get a good storm, but early activity over the keys and near that coast has resulted in a cirrus cap of clouds..so that chance may very well go to zero.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Active days for Storms, mostly Near and North of Lake Okeechobee. Upper level temperatures, namely at 500mb (20,000ft) are forecast to be the coldest they have been since spring time..with readings around -7.5 to -9C  as opposed to -5 or -6C as it has been all summer.  However, with mid level temperatures also cool, storms could have an early onset as soon as the earlier sea breeze develops.  With that 'theory' showers might form along the east coast sea breeze east of I-95...and drift westward...then, as the west coast sea breeze works east..collisions could produce stronger storms in areas that haven't already been worked over. This activity should be able to press back to the east. 


This scenario seemed most likely early today to occur south of Daytona On Tuesday...but on Wednesday it is up and down the entire East Coast.  Far SE Florida (South of Boynton Beach) could have an early day storm..but the remainder of the day would be worked over for further storms as the east coast sea breeze progresses further from the coast in that location..and steering will be too weak to press activity back to the coast. But honestly, I haven't waited for morning model runs to come out that extend beyond 12 hours...so these two days will have to be reassessed in the morning, based on the trends over the course of two more runs between now and then (make that 3 more). This determination was made based on two consecutive runs of the NAM and GFS.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday looks similar to Wednesday, but the cold air aloft starts to pull out by mid-afternoon...and greater inland east coast sea breeze is anticipated. But moisture over South Central to North Florida continues to increase...and steering becomes weaker. Friday is up for grabs as of this morning, but last I saw rain chances lowered most everywhere as drier air comes across from the Western Caribbean.


TROPICS: No worries for another 10 days...but one or more storms might be in the making during this time frame that will bear very close scrutiny considering we will be entering the peak of the hurricane season...as well as the fact that storms look  to form (if they do)...at a latitude far enough south that they would either go into Mexico/Yucatan..or threaten the US SE Coastal area or Eastern Gulf Coast region.
High Pressure over Texas...has been there all spring and summer so far, so peristence says..no hurricanes to make it north of far SW Texas or west of Baton Rouge.

Strong Storms Possible East Central Late Today

There is a chance of a repeat performance of yesterday with a few variations. Details are in the blog post below

TODAY: Quick post today ....in short, much of today is panning out to look like yesterday..with a small variation or two.


As expected, the surface front is beginning to, if not already, stall. It is shown with the yellow line across N. Florida. Expect a thermal heat trough to form this afternoon down the spine of the state..but more toward the east. This, in turn, will tend to back the surface winds from westerly to SSW if not S-SSE mainly north of West Palm Beach.  Therefore, it is possible that storms could be strongest as they approach and clear I95 toward the coast north of the Lake Okeechobee Shadow...with the winds backing...but not sure of just how much..it is a bit difficult to determine exactly which area will be in the shadow..but it appears that Martin County toward Ft. Pierce or just south of that area might be protected from heavy storms.


Otherwise, much of the state is coming out almost uniform in terms of instability...however, ALL of East Central (mainly South Central) is very capped off right now..this is expected to break after 1pm...and will mean a bit of a delay in storms to affect the area...until late afternoon.


With peak heating increasing dew point depressions..most activity crossing the state will be rain showers with some thunder other than over South Florida South of the Lake until after 4pm. Believe there too storms will strengthen to thunderstorms. The coolest mid-level temperatures are forecast to exist north of Lake Okeechobee as well. Therefore, with increasing helicity up the rivers mainly in Brevard/Indian River County...high CAPE...and the left exit region of the 200mb jet in the area...storms could be quite vigorous toward Mims/Titusville south to Port Canaveral and south yet again toward Vero Beach.  The best divergence seems to be setting up south of the Port though...so there to..some storms could be strong for another reason.

The strongest storms will be after 5pm (except South Florida), but inevitably...just exactly where that will be will depend on where outflow boundaries from showers to the west escalate the forward motion of the west coast sea breeze..and then interact with each other...eventually...as they approach the coast...the river upwinds will have an additional impact as the storms approach US1 mainly from Oak Hill and South Along A1A. Waterspouts could occur, mainly as storms cross A1A and exit into the ocean after 6pm.


Somewhere today, and I'm thinking Central Brevard toward Vero Beach...storms/rain will pile up ...as outflows from storms press back to the coast and meet the developing SW flow which will resume after 7pm. This is a bit questionable though..due to the more prevalent stronger steering which is assumed to occur today from that of yesterday. I'm not sold on it though at all at this point...and will ride with rains to last near the coast somewhere from the Cape and South to Ft Pierce tonight.


TROPICS: Only thing to consider other than  Tropical Storm Franklin which is by passing Bermuda is the last week of August. The Dry Air Pocket near the Great Antilles is filling up...and there is a train of what looks like developing wave all SOUTH of 10 degrees N. Latitude.  See the text...

AFTER TODAY: A variation of today is again in store, with more storms looking probable, strong along the east coast. Beyond Tuesday...more of the state will be favored for storms..with steering remaining toward the East Side but at a slower pace. By later in the week, most storms might be restricted to west of US1 or I-95 as the east coast sea breeze will develop by noon time or shortly thereafter and make greater inland penetration.

Strong/Marginally Severe Storms North and Portions of North Central Florida Today

There is a chance of very strong thunderstorms today with the only real hazard being excessive lightning, although wind gusts to 55-60mph could happen in storms North of Route 46 (Brevard to Seminole County). Tiny hail could occur in some storms..although nickel size is a small possibility in storms north of Daytona. More in today's write up. 

TODAY: This image above is the 500mb analysis at 8AM. Does not show much except where the southern extent of the upper level flow extends today by the solid black line. We see the radar overlay here too. Something is sparking  some thunderstorms SW of Pensacola, and that trigger device might work into North Central Florida later today. A stronger pocket of energy is expected further north into NE Florida later as well.  


Storms should start out by early afternoon over North Florida spreading east, and eventually over South Florida..but later..like yesterday there. Tampa Bay area will also get in on the act by 1pm.


HOT EAST SIDE TODAY NORTH OF VERO BEACH: Unusually hot once again as the theme has been with a delayed Sea breeze north of Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce with highs at the beaches in the mid-90Fs...if not warmer..with high dew points..Heat Indices (otherwise labelled as the 'feels like' temperature) will approach 105-112F..A1A north of Melbourne Beach). The most thermal  instability forecast by all models this morning is expected to exist across Central Florida today, with the most wind energy over North Central and North. Even at this early hour the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is up to 3500 J/KG which is approaching very unstable..these values reside just off shore both coasts but will fill across by noon. The mid levels are moderately unstable already in the same area...here is the RUC (the Rapid Update Cycle model) forecast for 2pm of the instability. The red (and the darker red)..is more and more unstable..decreasing to pale blue is barely unstable.

Forecast CAPE (available energy, the higher it is, the more unstable the atmosphere can become) for 2pm today. It is possible these values will be even higher than presented in the model. This has been the trend...but these look very reasonable. It is clear the most instability is over Central Florida and far South Florida by that hour (and near JAX).  More instability will work in across the Panhandle as well.

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Rains, showers, and some thunder will work west to east across North Florida toward JAX and spread south with time toward Ormond Beach. Meanwhile, the east coast sea breeze is expected to develop first over South Florida and progress up the coast to near Port Canaveral by 2-3pm...but remain very close to the coast north of Vero Beach...especially in Brevard where it might not progress any further than US1 to I-95.


As storms (assuming they develop) approach from Inland Volusia/Osceola/Orange/Seminole Counties) and interact with the sea breeze south of Mims as they approach I-95. 


There could also be an up-river (from the south that is actually stronger than the sea breeze itself..as occurred yesterday)  component over Brevard County and into the Bight area of the Cape. 


If so, storms could be conditionally severe (based on that factor) near Titusville, Mims, Oak Hill, and Port Canaveral south to the 520 Cswy...additive factors similar migth play in around Ft Pierce, but not likely.   There is also the chance that, depending on the timing of storm activity further north..that outflows from those storms could press south to add yet one more variable into the quadratic equation of CAPE/Lifted Indices, sea breezes, and upper level divergence). That added penta-factor could result in a river or oceanspout...(waterspout) near the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge/Port Canaveral/South Cocoa Beach...or just offshore further south toward Vero..but the further north..the more likely this possibility. For that to occur, though, the storm (if there is one) would have to form east of Orlando and move in after 5:30pm when the up-river wind is at its strongest.


The latest RUC forecast indicates there will be some divergence or weakening and simultaneous splitting of jet stream level winds later today. When this occurs way over head..storm tops can rise up through those splitting wind fields to greater height. This image might be a bit overdone..and believe this will more likely be the case either Monday or Tuesday...the waterspout potential..possibly more than teeny weeny..will be on Tuesday.:

BEYOND: Storm chances continue Monday - Thursday....with a variation to the theme each and every day. It is possible a sea breeze will not be realized on Monday almost anywhere..that will need to be reassessed in the morning on that day.  Otherwise, the GFS has flip flopped between different variations as Wednesday approaches...making wind fields for an early sea breeze from Wednesday and beyond, but maintaining a WSW to ENE flow aloft in the mid-upper levels. That could mean very late day storms again along the east coast..if they can make it that far. Most likely west of I-95 and decaying as they approach the coast.


The other factor to consider working into Tuesday is the amount of moisture available. The GFS was trying to bring a frontal boundary into South Central or even Far South Florida by Thursday..really taking the rain chances down due to dry air behind that boundary (no temperature effect). That seemed quite odd for August....as of 2AM it has now backed off..with only a day or two of drier air North of SR 50...Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.  


Strong storms should again be possible toward the East Side of the state from Vero to Titusville on Tuesday...especially since a sea breeze is again expected to develop most everywhere...and upper level divergence as shown in the image above will be primed if all things pan out as depicted.


TROPICS: There are no tropical threats for quite some time to come...that is, until the next GFS comes out...kidding...the Saharan Air Layer (of dry air) is cascading off the West Coast of Africa like a dusty, dry waterfall. There were 2 areas of interest out there yesterday..but as of last night they looked all but gone. The Hurricane Center is still ogling  them though..but even still..the one that might form into a depression  looks destined to be casting nets and hooking bait east of Bermuda if it lasts that long.  The area of dry air circulating out there North of Puerto Rico and the Dominican is shrinking in size though as it only rotates in place, shifting a bit north and a bit south.


Surely anyone sailing out in that area toward the NW Coast of Africa, if this were the old days, would be suffering from the delusion known as 'calenture'. Back then, after months at sea they would begin to hallucinate upon day after day of clear but dusty/hazy/humid air...they'd see the green ocean waters as fields of grass...open, moist, lustrous, greeting pasture..and in their hysteria..would try to walk upon it. Man over board! I guess they'd end up in the sarcophagus if their bodies were ever retrieved in the days of King 'TUTT'...per archaeological digs.


The Tropical Upper Level Trough (TUTT) is closed off and filling closest to Florida as shown...but check out all the Sad and Loony Air (Saharan Air Layer personified) coming off African like the Niagara Dust Falls...wouldn't want to take a tour in a raincoat out there.

Good Rain Chances Today, Storms, Small Waterspout Chance East Side/Lake

See Captions: There is a very small chance of a waterspout today in the lavender areas through 1:30pm. The area toward the Cape looks primed for noon-2pm in terms of forecast RUC winds as of 10am, but clouds might all but remove that chance of even a rain shower until later..specifically watching from Ft. Pierce to Canaveral...ocean or rivers otherwise.

TODAY: Reversal of Fortune day at hand as the mid level ridge axis is retreating back to the west; however, matters are complicated a bit as it appears the eastern most portion is cutting off toward the Big Bend area. This has little impact other than to affect the already light steering currents and perhaps reduce rain chances for most of the western 1/2 of the Panhandle until late.


Elsewhere, the other problem is the persistent area of clouds where the blue question mark is shown. This was originally thought to be debris clouds from where the storms ended up and decayed last night (which was in the high prob of rain chances in yesterday's post...this materialized after 7pm in Polk County and toward the SW Coast).  That area seems to be eroding and should be all but gone by early afternoon, or simply decay and transition immediately into storms...but latest actuals is showing a weakly portrayed inverted upper level trough over this area. As such, it might act to either hinder storms here today due to the clouds if they persist or, if the clouds clear up, Enhance storms there late today (under the assumption this inverted trough is even still located there). None of the models have picked up on it..so believe it is just a remnant reflection of last night...be regardless..could have a big impact as a rain maker..especially early in the afternoon. If so, then outflows from those storms could send other storms off the coast from Ft Pierce to the Cape later in the afternoon.


Precipitable water values are mostly between 1.9 - 2.2" inches state wide except the extreme SE Coast of Florida. By day's end, expect to see values range from 2.0 - 2.4" inches.


Must emphasize that the higher concentrated areas of rainfall shown in red was just a 'pin the tail on the donkey...with great hesitation..he blindfoldly relates', as the eventual outcome will be a result of where outflow boundaries propagate and meet toward 7pm and the sun starts to set...that could be just about anywhere from JAX to Ft. Myers. By noon, along the east coast...winds should be very very light..with perhaps a bit of a southerly component up river and parallel to the coast, perhaps a bit from the SSW toward extreme Southeast Florida. Fter that time, sea breezes (if not sooner) will come into play and the games begin for bigger storms.  With winds just off the deck remaining from the SW (but light)..and above that near dead calm. Those are favorable winds for a waterspout (early) before outflow boundaries develop and clear out swathes of real estate (up to 60 miles across) from better rain chances. Thus, some areas will see no rain today as well.


Best chances for thunder to develop will be after 1pm, after which point OFBs (outflow boundaries) will propagate and develop storms downstream of them, although, some storms could remain nearly stationary that are at the tail end of those boundaries...a bit like at the 'pivot point'. These locations could receive over 1.5" of rain (all inland).


The best chance for strong/severe storms appears to be over NE Florida, but any outflow from a storm could produce wind gusts or straight-line persistent winds of 30-50mph...even in sunshine close to the near stationary storms that collapse. This occurred yesterday from a storm that produced some frequent lightning for about 10 minutes north of Deer Park yesterday. This image shows the rain column..yet the photo is taken in full sunshine. Winds at this time were about 35mph from the North.

This doesn't look like much...but right up that road is heavy rain, and lightning was coming from this storm. Shortly thereafter the storm collapsed and winds increased to 30-38mph for a brief spell.

So with that said above, it is understandable that exactly where it will or won't rain today is nearly impossible to determine. Most of the official forecasts have alluded to this fact. In turn, the Storm Prediction Center just basically said, 'forget it'  and spun the roulette wheel..apparently landing on a red-70 ..because they highlighted the entire spine of the state with a 70% chance of thunder today....that will not be the case entirely, but it gets the point across. Some storms could exit off either coast if formed along an outflow boundary as late as 9pm tonight almost anywhere (except in the Panhandle)...and SE Florida south of West Palm Beach (...again, later on today/tonight).
NOTE: Most models show nothing of the sort this hour..and seem to be focusing on the US1 to I95 corridor of Brevard into Osceola County from 3-7pm.


Coastal areas that do not receive rain today will get cloudy regardless by late afternoon due to high level cirrus and outflow midlevel cloudiness.


SATURDAY/WEDNESDAY: Good chance of thunderstorms each and every day developing late morning and lasting into the evening. Each day will be different in regard to where and when the best chances will be, but believe the strongest storms will mostly occur over the North Half of the state, whereas over the South Half there will be some other days when waterspouts could occur early in the day. On Sunday - Tuesday especially, storms will be able to exit off the east coast from mid-afternoon through early evening up and down US1...but believe South Of Lake Okeechobee will be 'worked over' prior to 6pm.


TROPICS: No concerns at this time as the first two entities out there (including Tropical Storm Franklin now already past Bermuda and moving away)..pose no threat. There is another disturbance that the GFS has been picking up though, and has tried from time to time to develop it into a hurricane. But conditions have never appeared favorable for such, and therefore believe its 2AM is closer to reality. A tropical depression forming near Puerto Rico...riding under (South) of a region of high pressure which I'm been dubbing the SAL High (Saharan Air Layer), which is decaying but has been rotating in place out there for several days now.


Expecting the pattern that has been in place for the past 2 months to remain in place with the high over Texas once again re-establishing UNTIL a significant change is manifested, and pictured for several model runs..always best to run with persistence in the long range until that time.  


With that said, a weaker system (depression vs. hurricane) could ride south of the high and be picked up by the next upper and mid level trough that will dip toward the East coast at some point...then..as that 'depression or storm' (for now at least)..encounters the trough..it is lifted northward as it approaches Florida...


Below is the latest GFS-cast of 2AM. This is BY NO MEANS what I expect to happen at this point..but it certainly looks more realistic than previous runs.

This images shows a LARGE depression over Florida NEXT Wednesday, August 23rd.
Again this is the time frame I've mentioned in several posts. This is not meant to be an 'alarmist' cast...just an 'alertistcast' for what may be. No evacuations would be necessary in this EXAMPLE.

HAPPY MEAL STORM came with a secret prize inside yesterday. This is located in Nowhere, Osceola County.

Similar to Thursday, Most Thunder Later/Inland North Half

Late Afternoon Thunderstorm Over the Osceola County Prairie. One strike narrowly missed the telecommunications tower located just above the wood fence post.  The cattle were loving these rains with quite a few lightning strikes late afternoon in this uninhabited area. But the strikes were short lived, and a gentle rain followed.

TODAY: The last of the mid-upper levels troughs has pulled out to the East of Florida, with only a weak surface trough remaining near the coast of North and Central Florida.  Meanwhile, the flattening (ballooning) of the high pressure heat wave ridge over Texas has definitely occurred, where temperatures in varies locations failed to reach the century mark in the Southern Plains yesterday for the first time in over a month, and thus what could have been a record stretch of 100-plus readings in some locations in Oklahoma. Rains also entered parts of the drought stricken Big Lone Star state. More will occur there today as well, but it appears they will be biding time with a return to drought like conditions in a day or so.


LOCALLY: ..meaning most of Florida in general. The impact of the flattening pattern other than the rain/heat reduction in some parts of Texas, is that it is pressing into Florida to a small degree toward the Big Bend from the West/WNW. Net result is the Western Panhandle toward the Big Bend should remain dry today.  Morning land breezes on both coasts will transition to sea breezes earliest over Southeast Florida and work north up the coast. Central will receive a light sea breeze remaining close to the coast between 11:30-12:30pm with NE Florida to follow suit in short order. This breeze on the east coast will become full fledged after 3 or 4pm as midlevel winds from the ENE strengthen at reach their peak (while the eastern pressing ridge will have reached it apex of eastern extent..which will be today).


The deepest moisture resides over South Florida this morning, but even still believe they will have a start to their activity similar in timing to yesterday. There might be some clouds in the area in the first part of the day..during which time the worked over atmosphere of yesterday will recover quickly toward noon with storms to follow shortly thereafter. These would send outflows north and westward  toward the Lake with activity working northward with time through early evening. Temperatures along either coast should not be as warm today but inland temperatures should be close to that of yesterday. NE Florida, especially just west of I-95 toward Tallahassee should be the real hot spot today. With high dewpoint temperatures still in place, heat indexes will be around 100F -105F today..with a few locations even higher.


*Side note: My place yesterday reached 99F degrees for about 10 minutes with a heat index of 113F, but that was only for about 10 minutes...and clouds soon followed coupled with the sea breeze around 2pm.


STORMS TODAY: Believe most rains over South Florida will be rain showers (some heavy) with only occasional lightning strikes. This activity will form minus the upward forcing mechanisms necessary to get storms to great height (that is to say, without a sea breeze convergence or much of a lake breeze). There could be one or maybe two fairly active, but short lived storms in South Florida. Also included in some of this activity will be the Florida Keys where very light winds could allow cloud lines to form almost directly over the Island Chain.


Most of the real thunder today will occur from 4pm and beyond toward the north side of Lake Okeechobee as outflows from the south interact with the lake breezes (as the east coast sea breeze should meet the west coast sea breeze east of Tampa and north...additional showers can form near that time along the West coast sea breeze as well as the east coast sea breeze west of I95 and increase in number.  The sea breezes should eventually meet toward the west half of the state after 6-7pm with the bigger activity from Western Orange County toward just east of Tampa Bay to include Polk/Lake County specifically. Other storms could approach Ocala National Forest, and perhaps as far east as Central Osceola County (briefly). The best chance of lingering rain showers appears will be over SW Florida and western portions of North Central.  Temperatures aloft today per forecast RUC soundings will be similar to days past...so no strong winds are anticipated until possibly late today into the early evening.  Storms should dwindle very rapidly after 9pm in those locations where any remaining, unturned over air remains and where a lake and outflow boundary can meet.

SATURDAY: Similar scenario, but with more moisture having worked in to North Florida as well, more of the state will receive some beneficial rainfall other than the immediate coasts. This will need to be more closely scrutinized in the morning. Saturday.  Storms again on Saturday will exhibit strength nature as those of the past few days with little change in upper level temperatures. That has been the theme this year (not unlike last year)...warm air aloft, but not too warm to inhibit storm formation.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: These days look for more earlier in the day activity to begin toward the west side and south..and spread north and east during the mid afternoon. Perhaps all but the far east coast will have received rain by 4pm...with storms exiting off the east coast toward 4:30-6pm.


TROPICS: Two waves well east in the Atlantic are being monitored. Amazingly, the GFS (maybe not so amazingly) switched gears again and depicted a large land-falling hurricane in South Carolina in about 10 days or so..working right up the east coast to New York City. This is the only model showing anything close to this scenario to occur...with most others showing less development...and leaving that which does develop well out in the Atlantic. However, these waves do bear watching. The GFS has been very insistent on one of two scenarios heading toward the last week of August if not a bit sooner. That being that either : A) A weaker system, perhaps a depression, impact Florida with more concentrated, longer duration rainfall; B) A stronger storm moves toward Florida and curves NW-N either striking the coast or curving out to sea...ala 2010 Storms.  My own thoughts are that this could be a bit of a late season...lasting well into October. Still watching the Gulf of Mexico for Developments in that location eventually heading toward late September...

A Large Bolt of Lightning Had come down just milliseconds before this image was captured dead center, and not far away.... I really need to purchase a lightning grabber device..but that would require a better camera as well. Donations?