Queen Irene To Reign Supreme With A Mean Scepter

Without evening having to be seen on satellite Imagery, Showers and Gusty Squalls
Are Working From South To North. First Bigger Rains Have Already Occurred As Far North As Sebastian Inlet

QUICK UPDATE: Rains are appearing on the Melbourne radar like magic as the "Queen Bee of The Seas", Miss Major Hurricane Irene, moves NNW. In this direction of motion, the storm is essentially paralleling the Florida Coast. Currently, the center of circulation appears to be off shore Dade County. The storm is moving NNW at an average of 10-13mph and this motion is expected to continue through the evening hours. At this pace, and given the showers still over South Florida with Irene getting a bit more organized on satellite imagery, South Central to North Central Florida could have a rain chance in place through dinner time Thursday.  It is likely there could be a big lull in the action from time to time.


Winds this afternoon and tonight at all times will be strongest right on the sea shore and along the intracoastal waterways. 


TAKE CAUTION... when driving to or from one Barrier Island to the next, especially while crossing the bridges. Winds could be stronger at that slightly higher altitude...and they will be cross winds.


Although rain, some heavy at times, seems fairly likely at this point given what has already transpired further south, it will not be a continuous rain...or so it seems...nor will it occur everywhere.


The Wind could gust over 40mph easily in the showers, especially during the first line or two that moves through...before dark today. These showers and squalls will have the added benefit of heated air below to rush winds to the ground. Gusts right on the beach, in locations along A1A particularly in wind tunnels created by tall condominiums could reach tropical storm force but generally will be in the 35-40mph range.  I suspect that after dark the winds at  the times of rain will not be as strong on a consistent basis, but rather will be reserved for only the most deviou,s heavier, and much more isolated activity that might happen to rotate around the crown of Irene to the shore. As you can see below, The Queens Troops are marching in toward the coast ..rotating into mainly South Central At this time..but each pass of the wand will yield fresh recruits.

RADAR SAMPLE FROM 3:45pm 8/25/20011. Melbourne Radar.

At this time, it appears the rains will cease to exist first over SE Florida..working north with time. With the last of the rain over for good over Far East Central sometime between 2pm -8pm Thursday..although, it could be actually much sooner. It is hard to say, since it is also hard to say how much development Irene will take on. Winds will also back from NNE to N to eventually NNW-NW later today through tomorrow as Irene Careens on through and heads toward the North/South Carolina Border Area.


On up the line, Irene will get involved with a trough, resulting in heavy rain storms along the entire Eastern Sea Board from  NE South Carolina to Maine, gradually weakening with time. It looks like the heaviest combination of wind and rain will occur in North Carolina into Eastern Virginia and toward the Baltimore Area. Beyond that time, Irene will lose, to a small degree, pure tropical characteristics as it interacts with the frontal boundary, but nonetheless remain a wind and rain maker clear up to the Canadian Border.


Irene is taking a similar track to that of Hurricane Gloria in 1985.

Whirligig Antics Wrack Ideas of Iconic Irene (In Short Term Models)

Sunrise Reveals. Note the lack of a well defined eye. There was an eyewall replacement
early this morning.  Irene needs Visine!

***For local information pertinent to your area of interest please refer to the services of the National Weather Service. For individuals living south of Fort Pierce that would be the office out of Miami. From Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County and north through Volusia)..that is the office located in Melbourne. North of Volusia County (Flagler)..visit the website for the office in Jacksonville, Florida. All information contained herein is both speculative combined with factual. Approach with care****

I suppose it goes without saying that all in the know are interested in what Irene is up to...for the latest on a timely basis refer to the above. If out and about, and one is available, take along a NOAA weather radio or the equivalent.


OVERNIGHT: Irene was a little irresponsible overnight. The storm underwent an eye-wall replacement cycle..A bit like a ripple running up and out through the eye-wall. During that time of steady state equilibrium the storm wobble a bit to the the west.  In response, two models and too a smaller degree a third, happened to be updating. The result in those models was an entirely new track for the storm. They read into this as weakening above all else ...and thus.. altered Irene's future track. To some that ended up close to the Florida east coast as a tropical storm.  But the official forecast holds firm from the Hurricane Center, albeit just a bit to the west because of the wobble. But like was mentioned yesterday, every mile counts. More in a moment.


TODAY: Moisture convergence is piling up along the Florida East Coast as the up tick in surface winds occurs because of the sunrise concurrent with the closer proximity of Irene 's outer circulation.  In turn, it is POSSIBLE that rains could really pick up...all along the Florida East Coast between 9AM through 11AM. From south to north. The northern most areas  are most questionable though.


Here is what I'm seeing, but the proof is not yet in the pudding from what current radar is showing other than for South Florida...so far:

It is hard to say for sure if rains will develop this rapidly, but all short term models seem to be picking up on it. The mid-and long rang models do not have rains picking up to much this magnitude. Nor does the official forecast...other than with minor wrarning. Face it, we have a tropical storm around now. Point is...if the rains move in pretty quickly they could be here to stay for much of the day...or a good part of the late morning through early afternoon, considering Irene is closing in a wee bit.

Otherwise, rains should still develop up and down the coast prior to noon..most everywhere. They may also reach further to the west, especially over South Florida. It appears from the actual state of the atmosphere in the image above that rains will reach into the spine of the state...with backups arriving off the coast under the fresh ENE winds and moderately unstable atmosphere off shore.


IRENE THROUGH FRIDAY: Emphasis on the opening 'quoted' paragraph prevails.  There was one interesting thing I noticed with the GFS model. That model is one of the main squeezes for the future track of Irene.  I do not know if it was run in time for the replacement...but I do not believe so. But it ..and that model alone so far..is putting the track just a hairline fracture closer to Florida.  Additionally, the latest RUC 18hour run indicates yet another eye wall replacement to occur later today into tonight while Irene is still SE-ESE of Cape Canaveral. This brings again the track a bit closer..than the forecast track for that time frame By overnight the GFS has Irene reaching 'Peak Performance" in terms of Strength (through Saturday). Therefore, as it strengthens even more..its wind field of tropical storm force winds could as well. Therefore, it shows near steady tropical storm force winds approaching 40mph along the Florida East coast overnight tonight into Sunrise Friday. I say this only to air on the side of caution. There is nothign official being transmitted to that degree.


I also noticed that the same model which picked up the wobble earlier..is creating another one. The net result looks like this at the end of that model run:

FICTIONAL!! This shows a tropical storm near the Coast. This was run though, right as Irene was just completing the eye-wall replacement. A similar scenario was shown as it began the cycle...But, since the GFS of 2AM seems to indicate slighting stronger winds...it is something to toy with. ALL IN ALL..the forecast track holds firm in the long range with some changes that have no impact on Florida...but do for folks from the Carolinas and North. For the second time they are shifting the track at some point to the west and closer to if not on land near Maryland or New York.

TONIGHT: Just in case, anyone near the beach or even toward US1 might want to secure loose objects while the day is young. Any unexpected winds in a squally rain shower could send something 'moving' that otherwise would not be so desired.


OVERALL: The local affects other than those on the ocean are difficult today due to the eye wall replacements. Common sense tells me...they won't change a thing for us here...with that..the post of yesterday holds firm..other than these brain teaser models that are out there... There is an old saying..and I laugh in spite of myself:  "He who lives by the models, dies by the models". I'd like to live another day...to see another storm. And what the heck....


There is another Depression just determined to have been born well out in the Atlantic west of Africa.


FRIDAY: Rains and winds should end ..whenever they end. So far, could be as soon as noon time..or as late as sunset. It all depends on how the beast breaths. Any exhale in our direction can make a difference . Winds will be from the NNW and still gusty if all goes as planned..so the waves will grow smaller with every set of waves that rolls in. Get'm while they're hot! The storm will pull away as will the waves subside, especially with stronger offshore winds blowing the remaining after-shock ripples trickling toward the east coast in the other direction.


SATURDAY/MONDAY: As the Storm works up the east coast of the U.S. winds will become WSW-W with no sea breeze. Record high temperatures, especially near the east coast because that area is accustomed to sea breezes in August as a rule...are possible. 


Rain chances are questionable. Logic says 'no rain' because there is no trigger and no sea breeze. Models say, "Yeah, but there is a lagging trough Irene left behind..and I want there to be moisture convergence along it to make showers during the mid morning to late afternoon moving across the state wherever I have that boundary". 


The trend has been drying though..so best bet is the next runs will show even more drying and no rain. Just have to see, and still a few days away to watch this factor.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Looks like a return to a more normal cycle, with storms favoring the interior and toward the east coast late in the day. Beyond..it all gets so messed up. Irene blew a few microchips or overloaded the model's hard drives and circuit boards with "too much information"...let's call it 'Convective Feedback".  


I am getting the impression that we are entering a blend of the end of thunderstorm season and more of a solely tropical regime as we get into the first week of September..and might add..the peak of Hurricane Season. Watching the Gulf..and anywhere near either coast of Florida for starters for future developments. As well as, what comes down the African Turnpike , a.k.a  "The 10th Degree of North Latitude".

Potential For Plan B Today As Irene Becomes a Major Hurricane

 Good afternoon! I am not going to spend a whole lot of time in regard to the future course of Irene once the storm is past Central Florida and the rain chance directly related to the storm has ceased. But the storm will be addressed today in regard to how and why the system may or may not affect mainly the east side of the state south of St. Augustine beginning around 10AM to Noon time Thursday. Wanted to clear the air in that regard first...but first today.


****For local information pertinent to your area of interest please refer to the services of the National Weather Service. For individuals living south of Fort Pierce that would be the office out of Miami. From Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County and north through Volusia)..that is the office located in Melbourne. North of Volusia County (Flagler)..visit the website for the office in Jacksonville, Florida.****

I write this because changes will be ongoing as Major Hurricane Irene approaches and parallels the state from early Thursday through sunset Friday. These offices are already issuing special statements concerning the potential hazards involved ...most of which involve those associated with the ocean such as rip currents and erosion. Other hazards involving wind and rain are not expected to be so prevalent to go beyond awareness and general safety rules involved with driving in the rain and wind. It is the beaches that will feel the bite with Irene .


TODAY: There is an obvious pattern established today so far with plentiful moisture across mainly the south half of the state...but moisture convergence due to a fairly deep but  relatively light easterly flow component is able to make up the difference even north toward JAX for rain shower development. One thunder storm formed earlier toward Titusville, but already its presence cannot be seen on this satellite image. But it likely left a boundary around.  Virtually every model disagrees with the tid bits today due to the approach of now Major Hurricane Irene.  but in general most of the east side of the state should be fine with the rain and thunder chances working toward the west side of the state during the remainder of the afternoon. These should occur from near lake Okeechobee north to west of St. Augustine..but thunder restricted to South Central Florida     


TONIGHT: Onshore winds near the coast remain light with a warm evening in store. A few showers Mainly SE Florida over night...with some reaching the coast and making it about 10-20  miles inland. These showers will work north with time just as Irene moves North and west (and eventually curves away from the state late Friday). 


What is a "Major Hurricane?" . The term is being thrown around loosely as if everybody on the planet should already know by radio and TV.  I wonder if even 1/3 of the news crews out there even know..the very ones who are spreading the word. Any storm classified as 'Cat'egory 3 or above. In light of the damage level shown here on a Cat 3, No Wonder it is "Major"....currently, the storm is approximately 550 miles SE of Cape Canaveral moving NW. It is anticipated that Irene will reach Cat 4 strength during it's peak performance..prior to reaching the Atlantic Coast very close to Cape Hatteras. 


It is difficult to determine if the storm will actually cross the coast in entirety (at least the eye portion)..the track has ever evolved and shifted east with time since the day of its inception. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: In a nutshell -    **Completely contingent upon the future size and track of Major Hurricane Irene**      What we can do is take the only tools we have which is current guidance and real time data..and extrapolate between the two into the future. The latest GFS actually has the storm center tracing just offshore the entire eastern sea board from where the yellow highlight is shown..and then comign on shore near Long Island or Connecticut..and fully into Maine. Florida will be in the clear for sure of any direct strike once the storm has torn its way PAST the area shown in lavender.

                                     CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK:

But even so, that might not do well enough. Consider, we are talking about a living, breathing , and maturing teenager turning manic and out of control without meds on the way to adulthood in the course of 24 hours. With that, the worst case scenario looks like the first showers directly associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Irene will arrive sometime between 9AM-noon. From whatever time they arrive, they should be able to continue through later Friday and increase in number and degree into at least early Friday ..to even late Friday evening.  It is possible the first bands of rain could contain some thunder and stronger wind gusts due to down drafts ...the showers/storms will move through quickly, perhaps followed by a lull in the rain but not the wind. But the lulls will be briefest along A1A at all times.


During the day Thursday more fast moving but small sized showers will continue to pour in from the Atlantic Ocean gradually working into Volusia and possibly Flagler Counties.  Winds appear will be steady state and at their strongest over night Thursday night into early Friday morning. Perhaps continuous 22-32mph range with gusts in the fast moving squalls of rain above tropical storm force in the 38mph range or so. Throughout the day Thursday and Friday the true winds of the storm's circulation will come in from the east to ENE...and gradually back to ENE then NE. and NNE with time as the storm approaches.  When Irene is directly east of Central Florida  the wind will be due north over Central Florida. Further south this evolution will all transpire earlier in the time frame continuum.


The only true hazard with Irene is the ever increasing storm surf.  Any danger associated with the movie "Victory At Sea" one can imagine will be present anywhere above knee deep water. Best advice for any one is don't go beyond ankle deep. Should a large wave come in and catch you off guard...oh well. Or for that matter, do not get on the beach at all. But, it will become obvious just exactly whether or not it is even safe to go on the dunes...especially during times of high tide. The other possible hazard is waterspouts near the coast which if they come ashore would be tornadoes..but, this seems pretty unlikely to occur on the west side of the storm, but it has happened. High tide in general using Cape Canaveral as a reference point in Brevard County will be around 5:30pm Thursday and an hour later on Friday.  It will also occur around 4:30 AM to 6:30AM (Saturday) as the storm departs. Winds by Saturday sunrise will be offshore for surfers and big waves.


Additionally, at high tide or even a few hours before and after  there could be a danger of beach erosion. The NWS is not toying around and simply painting the worst scenario..which is the right way to go until proven otherwise. In that case, beach erosion could become a real issue, but it won't last too long (not like a northeaster)..so the hype to some degree might be over done...it is simply too hard to know because we do not know how large of an area the wind field with Irene will be, nor how strong the wind contained in that field will get.


In turn, the coverage of rainfall is also difficult.  The consistency in plots would indicate that the most heavily affected area both in wind and rain will be east of US1 from St. Augustine South..but the biggest area to be affected when all is said and done will be southern Volusia county along and east of US1 to Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce.  Given the winds fields over the entire event, there might be two 'hot spots' of bigger rainfall, 
1) Near Ft Pierce; 2) North Merritt Island, Cape Canaveral, Central  and South Rockledge into Eau Gallie, and perhaps North Cocoa Beach...with some of this activity skimming by Titusville and into Port St. John as well. 3)  Also south of Ft. Pierce to Key Largo area.

A SIMULATED (not real) Radar Depiction of what radar  could look like in approximately 18 hours or so. These are not to be believed.  Also, realize that we never see the entire system from Miami at this point in time. I fully expect that radar and satellite information tomorrow through Saturday will be AMAZING to see!

These same area will also receive the strongest wind gusts, but the strongest winds through the event will occur along and east of A1A in Southern Volusia, Brevard, Indian River Counties...extending to ocean front south to Miami.and briefly toward key Largo and west of there as well.  Believe the strongest winds of all, which could reach tropical storm force in gusts will occur as Hurricane Irene begins to get not only stronger but larger. This will occur as she reaches the Latitude of Melbourne beach and continue for quite some time north of that latitude.  This could be the bench mark location to just ENE of Cape Canaveral because from there and north the ocean water is not quite as warm...but the storm size itself could spread out. With that..the showers could continue up until Friday evening north of Vero Beach..with the last to pull out near the Cape...as soon as mid-afternoon Friday to as late as midnight Friday night...there is simply no way to know until we see how big the areal coverage of Irene will be...and the fact that it should be expanding in circumference as it tries to pull away.


 Overall, I'm envisioning the biggest impact in both winds and rain to the state to  run from the North Side of the Cape (Playalinda Beach) to Port Canaveral and south to Cocoa Beach Pier beach-side specifically and up to one block from the beach...then beach-side immediately south to Sebastian Inlet..and perhaps North Merritt island.  


Outside of these areas, rainfall with less of the wind gusts will or could occur west of I95 in Southern Flagler South through Volusia and Brevard..perhaps into eastern Orange and Seminole County...NE Osceola.


Rain and winds will lessen from South to North and from west to east..with the last to end far East Central.


"PLAN B" - Irene continues to shift its course further to the east and the only impact will be Marine related.


AFTER IRENE: More... lots more to discuss in the local forecast involving more early through late afternoon thunderstorms and showers (into Monday) and hot afternoon temperatures beach-side with NO SEA BREEZE.  The focus will be across Central originally it appears on Saturday and Sunday. ..becoming state winde Monday and Tuesday.


Beyond the weekend into early September.... I'm watching the Gulf of Mexico..not the Atlantic.  Irene will be leaving behind a trail of low pressures in the Gulf that will linger for quite some time to come.  This area is unfettered of storms due to high pressuer over Texas. That is problematic though..but somewhere is of that high pressure..and where it will be effective will or could pay homage to future Tropical Weather Outlooks.  Waters here are near 90F, winds are light, and this area has been just waiting since late winter for this opportunity. Florida and anywhere east of the Mississippi will be in for more forecasting headaches I have a feeling in September.


And what's that I see? The ridge over Texas breaking down!?? Finally?..too far out in space to tell. But it has been indicated...if it is showing September 10th though..that could end up being October..or not at all.  

 

Unique Day For Florida Weather - Pristine Irene Not So Serene

BLUE LINES: Weak Sea Breezes (and none) at 11AM and an Outflow Boundary From Large Thunderstorms off the NE Florida Coast (also in blue) is progressing toward the State

TODAY: A tough forecast today for the region North of Ft. Pierce to Sarasota mainly. Moisture is ample at all levels for the most part, but what is currently shown could change. The biggest "?" in this area is along the east coast east of I95 as well as how the moisture levels at various components of the atmosphere (levels) will change during the late morning through mid-afternoon in what appears to be a mostly unchanging atmosphere other than normal sea breeze development. It is possible the east coast sea breeze will move little from the coast until the outflow boundary gets into closer proximity of the coast north of Vero Beach.


SOUTH FLORIDA: Most diurnal type mechanisms seem to be in place in South Florida today with ample moisture, only very light sea breezes, and no prohibitive factors for rain and thunderstorm development at play. Once initial activity sets outflow boundaries into the area, those combined with the lake breezes and subsequent additional outflows could fill this area in with precipitation fairly well. It is after 3pm that the most lightning type activity should develop as boundaries meet just away from the coast and/or along the depth of the inland penetration of either coasts/s sea-breeze. There could be some odd ball strong storms created by the washing-machine circulation created over the Everglades that might produce a 'surprise event' along the South East of Southwest coast. 


TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL: Having a hard time envisioning the sea breezes actually meeting today, unless until very late. Winds aloft are quite light,, and just at or near the top of what might be the normal vertical depth of the sea breeze winds are light from the WSW. This could greatly delay the east coast sea breeze from Brevard and north..or at least make for little inland penetration beyond I95..OR..leave the sea breeze to develop but leave it quite shallow..in which case. storms might not be able to form along it...but if the can..could be quite lightning filled. 


The other perplexing factor today involves the outflow boundary visible on satellite imagery late this morning. It appears to be approaching the state with arrival around 3pm or during peak heating hours. It might even be sensed by the atmosphere PRIOR to its arrival due to mass convergence ahead of its push.


Should this boundary arrive either before or shortly after the east coast sea breeze develops, some stronger thunderstorms could occur both along, behind, and just ahead of where ever the sea breeze is located at that particular time. Thus, the Big "Huh"?  


Two Scenarios: The front never makes it to the coast, at which point more sparsely dispersed shower/storm coverage would follow with generally cloudiness in other locations...with better chances late today away from either coast as outflows from the activity over South Florida propogate.s northward along the leading edge of outflows from along and north of Lake Okeechobee.


The other scenario is that this large frontal outflow drawn above does make it to the coast. If that is to occur, storms could be much stronger along the sea breezes where it has developed, or perhaps, the sea breeze will not even be required.  Likewise, the outflow with the cool air behind it might only create general cloudiness and less coverage. I'm not weighing or depending on that side of the coin today. Thus, storms developing along, near, or just west of the immediate sea shore with those resulting in propogating outflows WSW-SW ward. Coverage in this case would be quite generous. Some of the early activity (which would be in the early to mid afternoon could contain quite a bit of lightning...) and some stronger wind gusts over South Central Florida (South of the BeachLine).


More activity could be ongoing over South Florida and further inland and toward the west coast until nearly midnight...per Scenario number two.


WEDNESDAY: Another tough call. The latest NAM run indicates plentiful moisture but no rain as winds at most all levels become more umiformly ENE with time ahead of Hurricane Irene while it is on more of a NW course.  Perhaps this will equate to more of a showery regime, but if so..how much? There are no definities tomorrow ..so in the morning we will have to see just exactly how much moisture we have to work with, where in the atmosphere it is located, and how strong (not strong mind you)..the wind will be. Normally, I'd think near uniform flow from the ENE would equate to wide spread small rain showers and maybe some thunder as storms progress toward the west coast (at this time of year). But given we also have a hurricane in our midst and its surrounding envelope (macro climate within)...the exact impact..if any..is a bit hard to determine. With those winds, the temperatures especially near the coast should not be quite as warm tomorrow..but far from 'cool'.


THURSDAY: The forecast for Thursday and Friday is solely dependant/contingent upon what influences Irene (if any) will have.  Surely there will be marine impacts of high seas and rough surf..with rain offshore in squalls. Model guidance is coming into alignment so closely in regard to the cyclones track that it is almost scary.  There is only one 'fly'.


Per the official discussion and as I'm observing, the storm was expected to become a MAJOR hurricane...however, despite the fact that it will be entering very warm waters..it will also be entering a shearing deformation zone produced by the decaying presence of a 700mb trough (the one responsible for the storms off NE Florida at this time). With that, no intensification beyond what it has at the time it gets east of Cape Canaveral is expected.  Pristine Irene , of so serene, could have only minor impacts to those locations mostly east of I-95. 


And, if the official forecast holds true, we will hardly know it is out there.  However, any further west ward track closer to the coast will make the difference between night and day in regard to wind and rain. Therefore, consult local forecasts issued by the NWS in MIA, MLB, JAX, and TPA for the official outlook...after the morning post is made these  days .  Chances are, we will already know the scoop at 'blog post time' because by then we will know where the storm is and which way it is headed..at least with respect to Florida.


PRISTINE IRENE (The Younger Sister of Serene Irene by 5 Years): As stated above, other than marine concerns, impacts are not looking bad at all for Florida. Even as late as yesterday afternoon one model had it headed toward Vero Beach. Therefore, it is advised to closely monitor the storm until it gets north of Cape Canaveral. It is at about that point it should be its strongest .


If any changes occur other than 'the expected' before that time, we will surely know about it through a variety of outlets. The NAM has even come into agreement with all other models as of 8AM..which previously was an outlier along with the GFDL. I will say though that if the storm takes the present forecast track, impacts for Florida will be minimal to zero other than the rough seas...seas near shore are not expected to be substantially large enough to create beach erosion.


In lieu of posting my ideas or thoughts of what I think might happen, I leave that to the NHC (The Hurricane Center) and the Weather Service to release only official information. Otherwise, one man's word becomes another man's gospel. ..which is passed on to another person (and altered a bit)..and before you know it ..the rumor mill as mulled up a witches brew of down right lies by those so inclined to generate fear and apprehension amongst the meek and mild mannered.


BEYOND: Showers and thunderstorms will be once again  be possible later in the weekend as Irene is well away..with very warm to hot coastal afternoons due to the lack of a sea breeze until Irene is 2 days out of the picture, at least.  The storm could end up not striking land at all..but if it does..the saving grace is that since it might even weaken from the already now forecast reasons stated above...where it does strike will not be nearly as great of an impact as previously envisioned (But, it would still have a major impact to coastal communities if it does meet or get very close to any coastal area).  


Keep attuned at times during the next 48 hours regarding Irene though. If it does gain more momentum as was thought up until just a few hours ago..a very strong storm would or could change the forecast track as much as in a drastic fashion...and we don't want to be caught off guard by some sudden NW motion as what has happened in other locations in past when Major Hurricanes are in the midst of near approach..additionally, if its forward motion for some reason slows down for any length of time..that could also change the expected storm track down the line.

First Hurricane of 2011, Serene Irene - Showers/Thunder Mainly North Central Today

This charts shows Precipitable Water in the atmosphere. Over South Florida it is lowest..but not all that low. The moisture there is mostly contained within the cumulus cloud level...same with the I-10 Corridor.
You will see in the next image a strange 'anomaly' from the Norm.

TODAY: Interesting day can POTENTIALLY be in store.  A 700mb trough axis is expected to stroll into Central Florida on its last and most southern gasp today. Moisture is expected to pool along that boundary atop a  potentially relative very unstable low level atmosphere. Winds all the way up to heaven are less than 10mph and less than 5mph below 10,000 ft everywhere..so steering is non-existent. Believe, therefore, showers/thunder will first be promoted right as or before the weak sea breeze forms in the orange shaded area very close to along the 'magic dividing line' of North vs. South Central Florida...roughly from Cape Canaveral to North Tampa Bay. Thunder is questionable though without boundary mergers before 3 or 4pm.  


Light stirring currents at the low levels over the Merritt island Wildlife Refuge conflicting with each other and a developing sea breeze (or prior on the north side) could promote good rain shower upward lift underneath upper level divergence.  There are two negatives though. Moisture at cumulus cloud top height should be greater and I don't know how long the upper level divergence will remain in place.

In this image, I've written that divergence might increase as the trough at 700mb (about 10,000ft up) bottoms out There is already some deep layer moisture convergence going on over Central Brevard into Osceola County based on another plot I just looked at. But who knows just how deep......Could we end up with an axis of showers and maybe thunder all the way out to sea by early afternoon along the 700mb trough axis..OR..just a cloud deck!!? Given the high instability shown..I ran with the showers theory..but could be wrong easily.

SOUTH HALF OF STATE: Very little moisture above cumulus cloud level and has been decreasing since early morning. It is interesting that the GFS brings more in..but I see it no where on ACTUALS..at least note through early afternoon. Thus, expecting mostly quick showers along either coast and near the Lake along the Lake Breeze.  Thunder could occur along the sea/lake breeze merger in Martin/St. Lucie County area though and maybe toward the SW Coast later today if more moisture works in as depicted by the GFS.


NORTH HALF: Most unstable atmosphere today over all of North Central Florida. There is forecast to be an interesting moisture gradient in the mid-levels just south of the Magic Dividing Line almost all day. In fact, very little is to change today other than the south and far north drying out aloft and sea breezes forming during the mid-afternoon hours. Before then, they should cling to the coast and be quite light.


Very 'huggy' today on the intracoastals. Warm, Muggy, humid, and close, with heat indices in the 105 -112F range. This leaves this area for thunderstorms. Believe the sea breeze collision will occur toward the interior of the state..and some could roll off shore or to the shore as far south as North Merritt Island toward dusk if not later (other than earlier activity potential)..but outside of boundaries forcing such motion...most should be along and west of US1 except for in Volusia and North Brevard over the Intracoastal.


 It is with that activity that a waterspout could form given such a subtle nature like none I've seen this year aloft to the wind fields at literally every altitude prior to and during the sea breeze front development. If so, the most likely area would be near Pads A/B, the Refuge, and surrounding areas toward Canaveral Air Force station (less likely though). and perhaps near Daytona Beach. This is under the assumption that showers can form though first off. That mid level moisture might end up being a cloud deck instead to OFFSET showers rather than abet them. So, we'll see what surmounts to probably nothing. Just wanted to throw that in for good measure.


Thunder is most likely late today as the sea breezes and rain shower outflows merge..since the outflows could have a good push to them given that there is no conflict winds of substantial velocity to negate any forward motion of created OFBs (outflow boundaries).  Storms could continue until after dark toward Orlando in any area not already worked over...OR..where a shower occurs early and can recover its instability during the mid afternoon.


TOMORROW: Haven't really looked heavily into tomorrow, but from what I saw earlier and last night...it will be a similar scenario since the 700mb trough is expected to pull out during that time. South Florida should see some increasing moisture too by then, but we'll jump that hurdle when we come to it. In any case, there is nothing expected to occur that would prompt greater urgency than what is happening in the tropics.


TROPICS: Hurricane Irene was proclaimed this morning. I'm expecting it will oscillate between Hurricane and Storm until it reaches the Coast of the Dominican Republic then Cuba (if it does get there) at which point I'm thinking it will go back to storm..it all depends on how close it traverses to the northern coast..or for that matter..over it or inland from it..in which case it would go back to Storm.  


The model guidance since late yesterday has been in very close agreement with its future course..although not being exact (as would be expected further out in time)..they remain clustered tightly. Thus, we should be able to rely closely on the weighted mean average of the forecast tracks...which has been portrayed by the Official Hurricane Tracking, Watch, and Warning Center in Miami.  


Presented below is the latest as of 9:15AM this morning. What this exactly  shows will be described in the following paragraphs below, as well as future implications-- and naturally, assumptions (both pro and con) for the weather wary or weary traveler or homesteader.

WHAT HAVE WE HERE?

Description:
1. Orange is dry air. The storm is near the center...brown circles show vorticity (wind energy) along the SOUTH side of the storm..Thus, it is not in the dry air...which is the SAL that had been in place for quite a while. It looks like the dry air is trying to wrap around the storm...but will it? If so, and that dry air gets entrained (pulled into) the system..it would weaken, especially since it is approaching more land. Thus, do not expect any more strengthening, or if so..only minor strengthening with the land near by.


2. The Solid White line is the official Forecast Track. At time, it approaches the Florida East coast where you will see all those other colored lines. Those lines represent forecast tracks from Consensus / Ensemble models as well as the main squeeze dynamical models. 


The latter want to take the storm further offshore from the coast. The eventual track hinges on the strength of low and high pressure to the north and east of the system. I see why the models want to relax the eastern push at this time. However, is it simply momentary with respect to the bigger picture in time? Say..by this time tomorrow? In other words, based on last nights projections and those of over night/morning..we could pretty likely see a hurricane within that broader cone of error within the outer yellow lines. Bear in mind, the easterly more side of the cone where the lines merge the most has been favored now since yesterday..and given the pattern we have been in for a month now...don't see that changing anytime soon.


3. Again the brown lines. It looks like the air from which the storm might be deriving some of its energy is moist..not dry, air..no reds or oranges. So perhaps it can hold its own...ALL depending on the track the storm takes in relation to the hilly land mass..but the most tall hills and mountains are over Haiti and Central...it all plays out to all things equal.


4. Finally, what happens once the storm clears the landmasses of the DR and Cuba is anyone's guess. Please refer to the Hurricane Center for the latest guidance and read word for word the "Discussion" Link after clicking on the little Irene Icon on the start page.  In a nut shell, I will say this. The center wrote this morning that they are playing the storm strength on the conservative side...in their forecast of sustained winds of 100-110 mph as the storm approaches the coast of West Palm Beach (but off shore).


They  are  also tackling the issue of the track at that point in time down the road..as well as if the storm stays further from shore..the possibility that Irene could become a major hurricane. Believe that would not occur until it gets north of Ft. Pierce if it t'were to be..but who knows. It strengthen TWICE now more than expected..so who's to say anything other than..be on alert.


5. Listen to advisories..but for the latest..watch the web...


SCENARIO: If the forecast goes EXACTLY as planned at this moment up through the next 60 hours...believe evacuations will be in order up and down the A1A Corridor from Miami to  Canaveral...as a precaution. I won't go into possible ramifications under certain scenarios at this point since it would be pure 'alarmist mode rhetoric' . But, do consider the provided list of yesterday once again.


Other suggestions: Keep gas tank full as of at least tonight. 


Have plastic zip lock bags on hand to store documents or jewelry. 


Ensure medications are in supply enough to last through September 5th at least...and consider having empty containers to store water.


These can be put in the freezer, so that if there is a prolonged power outage its contents can hold longer, and as it melts it also serves as drinking water. 


In case I forget and something more threatening looms...fill the tub with water. This can be used to flush the toilet in case the plumbing goes out (namely for the barrier islands).


It's a worn out cliche..."STAY TUNED"..rather "STAY ATTUNED" seriously to official outlets. I've said my peace already twice here...it's all up to the reader to play it smart and thrifty, or to live on the edge of stupidity ..especially if nothing changes by this time Wednesday.


Final note: It was written this storm could become a major hurricane. If so, the first most likely case for that to be true would be if it stays further from the coast. Bear in mind, so far it is expected to encompass a very large area within 72 hours and beyond due to the fact that outflow all around the system looks very good. In which case, were a major hurricane to take shape and be further offshore, the shear size could come close to outweighing the further distance from the coast in regard to winds along A1A at least. It would be better though from this perspective in regard to any storm surge threat up intracoastals or at the coast is concerned.

Much Less Storm Coverage Today - Special Tropical Weather Highlight

IMAGE DEPICTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4

 TODAY: Dry SE and light flow now exists for the mid-levels along and south of I-4 this morning. There is still ample moisture for onshore moving showers across SE Florida south of Vero, but most of the showers to reach the coast should occur at or south of Ft. Pierce to Miami during the earlier part of the day.
Thunderstorms are more likely toward Gainesville and north to the I-10 speed strip.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: SE Florida up toward perhaps Vero or Southern Brevard Could get in on to more of a weather regime similar to that of yesterday...and they should also occur along to just south of I-4..mostly over the interior working toward the west side late in the day. Actually, Monday and more so Tuesday looks like a very typical summer pattern...one that we have really not seen yet this year..so who's to say, really..it will actually occur even then at the rate things have panned out this summer.


The reason for the showers/storms this past month and most of July has been the high pressure over Texas and large low pressure systems residing up in Canada. Those systems are sounding short waves troughs in the mid levels SE ward...they ride over the ridge over the Southern Plains..take a dip toward Florida..then pull out to the East and North after two to three days.  As long as neither feature moves much, which has been the case for quite some time..little will change...the next trough is expected on Late Monday through Late Tuesday..thus the increase in showers/thunder. However, this next trough is not expected to make quite the dip into Florida as those in the past.


The trough should then be lifting on out, temporarily reducing rain chances, during which time Tropical Storm Irene (and perhaps Hurricane Irene by 24-48 hours)...will move W or WNW toward Haiti or the Dominican Republic or both.  It is when that trough lifts out that Irene is expected to start making a curve toward the NW.

After Midnight, Early Tuesday. We see the surface front with the midlevel trough at higher altitude in almost the same location, Another front is approaching..Meanwhile, High pressure ridges at the surface from the Ohio Valley into Texas. This front will make it no further south..and pull out east and north as high pressure folds back over to the east to replace the departing trough. This same front should be bringing some active weather to the NE Today and possibly tomorrow...toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Also note the low near the Yucatan. This is a remnant of Tropical Storm Harvey...it is not expected to move much..which in turn ..acting like two magnets of equal charge..are repelled..that being Harvey and Irene. This might be the extra umpfpah to deflect Irene toward the WNW-NW.

Note: Irene is not looking to be a 'small ' storm by any means.  Actually, by the looks of it, by the time it gets toward Cuba'a north shore (assuming it curves)...it could look MAMMOTH. The set up is there already.

In the center is Irene..and nearly how large the cloud canopy of this storm could become. The actual storm force winds are much smaller..but it might start to look very impressive on satellite imagery by Tuesday. Note that the dry SAL air (Saharan shown in orange)..north of the circulation in general..is thinning out..the system also has an interesting banding feature ahead of it..I'm thinking that might be a barrier to protect it taking shape..in essence acting like a snow plow..or in this case..
a 'SAL Plow'. Also note what is behind Irene coming off of Africa.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: One can only assume at this point that Irene will still exists as nearly all the models indicate will be the case. So with that notion...the weather beginning Thursday (CENTRAL..much earlier South Florida)..would begin to be directly impacted by the storm..with increasing onshore moving rain-showers becoming a bit 'squally' ..mainly on Thursday




THURSDAY: Rainshowers  becoming squalls along the coast mainly progressing further inland with time. Each band of showers to approach..or every other one..could bring in some stronger wind gusts from and easterly component.  By late afternoon, if all falls according to the GFS and EURO..the beaches would begin to experience tropical storm force gusts on Thursday afternoon..becoming progressively stronger and eventually sustained. All of this would occur over South Florida in the same fashion..only about 24 hours sooner. So that by Thursday afternoon they would be increasing to hurricane force. At this point it is also possible that much of the south half of the state will be in a tornado watch.


FRIDAY: Per the GFS, Hurricane force winds would work into all of the east half of Central Florida shortly before day break..and last ALL DAY sustained. I've looked at some of the intensity plots..and took a mean wind by discounting the Category 5 wind depicted and completely eliminated the low end tropical depression winds namely because a system of that strength would likely never make it here. So, under that assumption..it would be the east half of the state to bear the brunt of long duration on shore winds feeding into Canaveral Bight/Sebastian Inlet, and that of Ft. Pierce. 


SATURDAY: It is interesting that the GFS slows the forward motion of the system over Central Florida. That would be because at that point it would be awaiting the next trough to come on in and pull it through..lifting it north and east with time. Central could be in tropical storm force SUSTAINED winds again all day Saturday through midnight...but rains will decrease significantly.


SUNDAY: All a faded memory...with a resumption of showers and thunder by Tuesday...however, like with all tropical systems..this storm could be dragging plentiful moisture in with it dragging behind like wet mop...some showers could actually be pretty potent thunderstorms a few days after the storm passes.

GFS

These are depiction samples only: On one hand, they are not meant to scare anyone..since so much can change between now and Tuesday or Wednesday..and right up to the time of any actual event in regard to placement AND strength...if the system is even 50 miles more toward to east of these images..the overall impact would be greatly reduced in many many ways in regard to total rainfall and upwind swelling of the intracoastal waterways.

ECMWF

On the other hand.....It is a bit scary to think that winds as depicted in that first image could hang around for a full 24 hours (hurricane strength)..this seems unlikely. That was as of the 00z run last night. I believe the later runs moves the strongest winds through in 18-24 hours.  Note that the strongest winds are on the east side of the storm.


THUS, if it were to actually move toward Orlando or Tampa.the east coast is still in the wind and heaviest rainfall..which could add up to anywhere from 7-12" by the time all is said and done.


That would be the downfall if it did not pass directly overhead...combined with a larger tornado risk on the east side of the tropical entity...rivers could still over run the causeways combined with heavy rain fall if a strong Cat 2 went up the spine of the state. Talk about MASS evacuation.


On yet another hand..or are we resorting to feet now...: If Irene dawdles over Cuba for too long..it might not get picked up by the next trough...at which point..all bets are off and Florida would likely be spared a major, significant, or even blase' 
storm..if any at all. 


I'm mainly showing these Graphic Images (both literally and figuratively) to at least arouse ones eye lids off the morning cup of coffee and the funnies. The August 11th..."Are you Ready..UPDATE"...has been revised..see the blog and the link..or refer to this one here: It is chock full of some stats and other thoughts, as well as a check list...for preparation: And in that light..


http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/2011/08/are-you-ready-tropical-weather.html


BEWARE: The minute a watch is issued (if need be)..all hellvectica is going to break lose on the roads and at the stores. Expect supplies of every sort to dwindle off the shelves..rather be ripped off them in rapid, uptick fashion. Drive carefully and calmly...watching out for 'the crazies'.


START THINKING ABOUT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO OR AT LEAST, WOULD DO. If there was no need to act, nothing lost. But it sure beats panicking at the last minute and getting caught up in all the hype with your panties in a wad.


Realize..that evacuation for anyone on the east coast might be required even if the storm is forecast to narrowly miss to the east...if it stalls offshore..or even if it suddenly were to close in on the coast (per David of 1979)...then there would be no time to leave or react in a large scale. Thus, just to play it safe ... depending on future developments in strength and course...at least monitor the updates as they come out two or three times a day at . Refer only to RELIABLE and official sources..and no one else. The rumor mill will be churning butter faster than you can make bread...and it might start even today from the looks of what I just saw on The Weather Channel.


TIMING: That could also be an issue. I've referred to a time frame only as an example..the storm is unlikely to speed up..especially over the mountains (or near them) of Haiti and Western Cuba...if the storm center misses both of those areas and arcs into Central Cuba..the mere overall size of its interior and exterior circulations will see that part of Cuba as nothing more than a bump in the road..a ripple in the walk of life...an irritating itch.  And who's to say the storm couldn't strengthen over the Glades/Lake Okeechobee? How much risk is Emergency Management willing to take? I bet they are already "Sweatin Bullets"...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRJ99wuV1ng

"No model defenestration can yet be made...it is too soon lest one do so.. only to suffer from objurgation; when what once was..no longer is." (self)


Thought I'd throw this in. Like in 1964 (Cleo/Dora..see blog link above), the fun is in no way over yet....

Off to the right..circled in blue..is an experimental outlook through mid September..hunt out Florida to get your bearings 

 

Much Kerfuffle over Tropical Weather Vaticination , Little Room for Defenestration Looks Imposing

Green is Showers, Orange is Thunder

TODAY: So far today is shaping up like yesterday with some minor differences. Temps aloft are pretty warm...sea breezes barely getting started but showers forming readily.  The strongest activity with some lightning should be after 3pm to 8pm..over Lake/Polk Counties and perhaps near the attractions...up through western Volusia.  The trend has been every day for more showers vs. thunder, so will ride with that one for now..although once boundary interactions begin is when we will know what potential lies within the beast's true nature later in the afternoon. Likely, the only thunder will be with the sea breeze convergence which looks to be strongest over West Central Polk County toward Southern Lake County.  Otherwise, a disturbance aloft might set off a stronger storms west of the St. Johns river in Volusia to west of St. Augustine...and mergers in Polk County looks to be a 'hot spot' as well...at the risk of sounding toplofty...I'm not looking to see strong thunderstorms today...But again, we won't really know until  late..and a lot could change during the course of the day.

Oddly, the impression I get is that inland activity will send outflows back toward the coasts..so that once again the I95 to US1 regions could get a second shot at storms in the early evening as the sun begins to set almost anywhere south of I-4...including all of South Florida.  However, coverage of said activity should represent a respectable rug of coverage when all is complete from mid afternoon through sunset ...

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Look very similar in nature..with less thunder..and more showers as warm air aloft starts to work in more and more . That warm air could be an omen though...for the tropics.

WEDNESDAY: Drier most everywhere..and this is where the tropics comes in to play..as whatever goes on down there comes into play

THURSDAY BEYOND: Very good argument for something of tropical nature to affect much of the state in some form or another..either much wetter or much drier depending upon what track 'something tropical this way comes"...The main player models are tracking (implying) a low end hurricane up to strong Cat 1 to cross the state..making an entrance on either the SW or SE Coast.

I looked into some history..the tracks are close to Cleo and David..with a bit of Charlie thrown in.  These were La Nina Years...or going on La Nina (not sure about Cleo)...and 50 years ago..close to the Cleo time frame...there was one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Sound familiar?!  Here's are the tracks of David and Cleo...and what the GFS  (below) and European model portray as of early this morning at 2AM.

The NAM is more in line with the Euro favoring a dead South Central entrance off of Central Cuba.

With that said, this leaves out how strong it would be. The Euro implies strengthening over the Everglades...good call on its part if that course of action takes place. These both look like Cat 1 hurricanes..with winds of 75G95 (Possibly) all on the east side of the storm...

AGAIN..this is NOT to say this is what will happen. However, all but 2 of the statistical models indicate that in the past...history dictates this course of action...all other things withstanding.  If the system comes off the Great Antilles greatly weakened..it as 2 of the models of statistical nature show...the storm will never impact Florida at all.