Showers / Isolated Thunder (Mainly South) Today

Weak pseudo-low circulation Over The Glades area to remain fixed in this region today before becoming diffuse later today into this evening. Although some brief  rumbles have occurred in the South already, it appears that not much more, other than an isolated incident is likely to occur today. Otherwise, further north we see a dashed orange for a conditional chance with conditional shower chances yet further north. See below for details.

TODAY: Weak low pressure over the South coupled with equally weak to moderate atmospheric thermal instability in the absence of sufficient surface boundaries has generated some showers and thunder South. Further north, instability will be lacking north of 528, but some moisture could result in a few showers although clouds only seems will be the prevalent modus operandi .

An impulse in the mid-level flow later today or early evening could bring showers or thunder (as shown in the dashed orange and northward extent of the green)...but those chances are conditional upon whether this impulse will actually manifest as indicated on model guidance or is merely a figment of model out put. Yet further north, instability is meager (per latest data), despite the clouds which can be seen on visible satellite imagery, it would seem unlikely that much beyond a quick shower at best will occur north of I-4, except in the Ormond Beach toward Jax area in from the coast.  There is almost zero convective inhibition in place over the state today. What this implies is that the any convective available potential energy (CAPE) will not be inhibited from escaping into the atmosphere, and thus will not be able to build up to result in thunderstorms without respectable low level boundaries or mid-upper level triggers in place despite that cold air aloft is in place, as noted yesterday.  Therefore, and again, late afternoon and early evening activity is 'conditional' upon the impulse (disturbance) being realized.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winds could remain as is today through Saturday into Sunday and be perhaps a bit stronger one or both days from the ESE-SE as high pressure moves off the U.S. SE Coast and into the  SW Atlantic toward Bermuda. Although a few light showers could occur at any given point in time, the prevalent condition appears will simply be rather comfortable/seasonal temperatures with some periods of greater cloud cover, but nothing worth noting at this point in time.


Next Chance of Broader Coverage of Measurable Rainfall? : Appears in the Late Wednesday and Thursday time frame.

East Coast/South FL Shower/Thunder on Friday?

Latest visible imagery shows a smoke plume descending SSW from near the Florida / Georgia Border (white annotations). Otherwise, although some showers could occur toward South Florida today, the better chance from Brevard and Southward appears will occur on Friday from near sunrise through the day and into the night, as long as into noon Saturday.

***Thank you for comments to this blog, from as far back as a year ago . I found some comments had been posted to previous posts during the past year but  receive no personal notification they had / have been made. Found them this morning.  Appreciated! ***

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TODAY: Upper trough off the U.S. East coast with Florida along the SW Periphery of said trough, with mid level disturbance dropping along the backside of the trough and across Florida appears could impact parts of South Florida today with a few showers. Otherwise, status quo weather of yore continues,  with light on shore winds and afternoon cumulus clouds away from the coast (where subsidence behind the sea breeze front could result in mostly clearer skies). In regard to the above image, the clouds off shore are dropping south. Not seen now was a healthy thunderstorm cluster (Sir-prize!) that dropped south from east of central and all of the state (no longer visible). This was picked up well by the NAM model, which bears as preamble for what it shows tomorrow..at least in theory.


TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Appears the mid-level vorticity/boundary will get locked up toward South Florida and retrograde toward Central late tonight as surface high pressure presses SE of the state, resulting in a E -ESE surface wind by Friday...a bit complicated to explain, but we can suffice it to say that pockets of 'vorticity' (coiled wind energy as noted passing overhead and retrograding) combined with very cold air aloft for this time of year "schould" (choose which word fits best) result in a coastal trough with very reasonable upward extend as high as 10,000 -13,000 ft (as opposed to 2-4000 ft under "normal  circumstances" for coastal troughs.). 


Convergence in the low-mid levels combined with moisture being tapped into with  E-ESE winds  along and behind the trough could result in moisture convergence  working upward toward 10-15,000 ft along and behind this trough.  This (stress 'assumed') moisture combined with the mid-level energy already in place and upward vertical Velocity fields ..most likely along the east side of this trough... could result in showers and maybe even thunder as far north as the Cape by later tomorrow, but more likely from St. Lucie County and South. Most activitiy will occur East of Orlando southward working inland the further South one progresses.


Otherwise, seeing as how this a new manifestation which developed in model guidance during the past 18 hours, this rain chance "~en-masse chance ~" bears watching for a good rainfall total potential if the NAM model runs of the past 12 hours have any merit along the east coast from the Cape and South (although, its track record has been below less than stellar for quite some time now). 


Given the cold air aloft and veering (but rather weak) wind profiles...would not be surprised to see worst case coastal waterspout potential popping up somewhere along the east coast some time tomorrow toward the coast. On the other hand, most areas will more than likely see increased cloudiness through noon Saturday at least along and South of I-4.


SATURDAY: Rain chances/clouds diminish mid-morning through afternoon from East Central fairly quickly toward Southwest Florida as the trough washes out and high pressure reigns supreme.  No true chance of measurable rainfall (if even) is indicated well into next week after Saturday's 'potential slight chance of showers' when "Bermuda High Syndrome" kicks in, resulting in SE-SSE winds round the clock , day and night prior to the next boundary in question toward later next week.

Isolated Showers/Thunder..Most Numerous South Central/South

Image shows 11AM Front Position. Color codes show chance of ISOLATED fast moving showers and possible thunder heading toward the East Side of North Central being possible, with most likelihood existing
South Central and South Florida today prior to frontal passage

TODAY: Front sinking south from North Florida should slow down a bit today with heating of the day, but nonetheless press through dead Central around 3-4pm at the latest. Ahead of the boundary isolated showers and some thunder is possible, most likely toward SE Florida and Eastern portions of South Central as the day winds on. Some lightning is occurring as I type over South Florida..meanwhile, a thin band of showers which could grow toward thunder producers heading toward noon time and beyond  now occuring over NorthCentral and pressing east while sinking south with convergence along the front itself.


The front should be crossing Central Mid-afternoon and continue south through the early evening hours where the strongest of storm 'chances' would seem most likely.


TONIGHT/SATURDAY: Behind the front a surge of north to NE winds still appears likely, with gusts in the 20-25mph range and a chance of light showers from the Cape and South. The wind should die down most notably at first by early evening on Saturday working down the coast and through Saturday evening with partly to sometimes most cloudy skies at times, mainly again from the Cape South. 


Shower chances after Saturday morning might be limited to sprinkles and maybe a some localized measurable amounts right near the east coast from  Brevard County to Miami...as the winds level off in the 15-22mph range during the day.


EASTER: Winds from the east around 10-18mph, with maybe some higher gusts earlier in the day, with very isolated sprinkles near the coast under partly cloudy skies. Winds decrease throughout the day though, so that by Monday and Tuesday these winds will be all but completely diminished to light under partly afternoon skies.

Strong/Severe Storms "Possible?" Late Today - Friday (South half)3p

3PM Visible Satellite Imagery shows: (1) The departing MCS (Mesoscale convective system) to the east of Florida. This system prompted severe storm warnings last evening near Tampa and heavy rains and thunder south Florida early this morning, but mostly created only light showers and clouds elsewhere (2) At least 2 separate systems to the west and NW of Florida. These (the first) will be entering the western Panhandle while another approaches NW Florida in only a few hours to then cross the north 1/2 of Florida. Further impacts through mid-afternoon Friday are largely 'up in the air' ...with a threat further south after dark toward midnight

TODAY: Complicated and 'numerically convoluted forecast modelling' makes for an 'intrepid waters' and delicate forecast  scenario   late this afternoon into late afternoon Friday for the state. A shorwave vort max, turned "MCS" as indicated on yesterday's post survived the trek to Florida, mostly impacting the Southern 1/3 of the state in the wee hours. Two storms that I am aware of were severe warned or being watched, or exhibited near severe potential near Daytona late yesterday with .70" sized hail, and another was closely monitored in Osceola County in the early evening hours. Those storms were not associated with the MCS that moved across later and overnight. The dilemma with that system was that virtually not one model indicated the scenario to unfold the way it did EXCEPT the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model. More complications today.


For today's forecast, we'll ride mainly on the coat tails of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watching for near severe or actual Severe Storms with a tornado potential nearly state wide, but highest across West Central Florida late today and/or tonight. As can be seen above, there is three meteorological foci of interest to be monitoring from late afternoon through tomorrow afternoon.


The first one (which by now should not exist per some models) appears to be approaching NW Florida and  will likely stay north of I-4 this evening; however, any further growth southward could breakout a threat with it into much of Central Florida toward dark. Virtually every model shows that convective inhibition will over-take much of Central (however), with much of the remaining activity shearing out after dark (dying off). If this is the case, zero severe weather will occur, if even rain for that matter.

Latest radar trend shows dying storms. These 'could' rejuvenate as they cross the state
but no model shows this to be the case

 Based on the strong wind fields (Especially heading into Friday across the South half of the state, as well as cold air aloft accompanied by sufficient low level instability, it would be a bit presumptuous to rely on model guidance in regard to precipitation fields, especially if this system mimics that of yesterday which presumably was to not hit the state at all. In fact, last night at the time storms were being warned as they approached Tampa, none of the main player models even showed that any rain was falling ANYWHERE or was supposed to be....so much for model reliability.


THROUGH FRIDAY: Although Severe Weather certainly looks possible, actually any severe storm will remain isolated ...as opposed to a squall line type 'event'. Another disturbance associated with a cold front itself is forecast to enter Central Florida from the north by early afternoon (if not sooner) on Friday. Timing of this feature is not at all pegged down, thus as a precautionary measure it is best to raise the level of awareness that should the feature be delayed into early afternoon, strong storms will again be possible along and south of SR 528 toward Tampa Bay after 10AM Friday and southward as the day progresses.


LASTLY: I will again stress the models show virtually close to Nil Severe weather potential except perhaps later today north of I-4. Thus, best to stay attuned to later develops as a tornado potential cannot be ruled out either. We can see how this is depicted by the SPC based in Norman, Oklahoma.

Per spc.noaa.gov   website. Do note the color coded schematic. The threat  overall is very low, but nonetheless exists. Highest potential above 15% toward the 45% start to be associate with MDT- HIGH RISK severe weather events. The area bounded in green is a 'General Risk" area. Also possible is near severe or actually severe category winds and 1" hail. All under the assumption that storms will manifest in the atmospheric environment over the state later today into tonight through and past midnight.  ALSO: Another potential threat area remains for the South 1/2 of the state from mid day Friday through a part of Friday afternoon (per model guidance as well as the SPC)  

SATURDAY: Stronger ENE-NE winds still anticipated with some cloudy skies mainly near the East Coast. This front has now sped up in timing by about 6 hours from yesterday's post. Either way, at some point between Friday night to early Saturday morning breezy and non-beachy weather anticipated with cooler temperatures in the 70Fs.  


EASTER: Winds will be letting up before Sunset Saturday evening, and in the 10-18mph range from the east on Easter Morning with scattered clouds, and 'possibly mostly cloudy' near the coast from the Cape and South to Miami.

Rain Chance Thursday/Friday: Much Improved For Easter

Clustered line of Showers/Thunder is pressing east and south across the Northern Gulf early this Wednesday afternoon. It appears most if not all of this activity will wane out after it gets beyond the Loop current, and thus holds no threat to the Peninsula. Otherwise, Showers and some thunder (isolated ) toward I-10, and maybe a quick shower along the SE Coast of the state much later today. Temperatures aloft are quite cold, but suspect that even though those could help in storm growth we first have to get one to generate. Moisture is rather sparse though aloft, and 850mb temps would take quite a bit of upward forcing for much to manifest, so isolated at best for a shower or the far chance of thunder seems to be a precautionary measure more than anything else. This area IS worth watching though, just in case.

TODAY: Warm interior to east side today with highs in the low 90Fs all interior areas and near the mark at the beaches as well by 3pm. A sea breeze does not look very likely, but if it does manifest, it will remain pegged east of I95, and prevent highs from reaching the 90F mark where it reaches. Some possible increase in higher clouds overnight after dark as a result of remnant clouds from activity over the Gulf. Otherwise, today's rain chances are noted in the above image.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Much better 'chance' of rain and thunderstorms from north to south late morning through sunset Thursday, and even earlier on Friday. Although guidance shows temperatures to be very cold and winds aloft increasing through Friday as well with instability in place, there is a problem in regard for much beyond general to isolated coverage or rain and/or thunder will actually exist. That being, the potential for high level clouds to shut off the storm producing atmospheric mechanisms, in the absence of only pockets of deeper moisture. Additionally, most of the precipitable water on forecast soundings is showing up above or near 10.000 ft as opposed to low levels, thus negating the potential for low level moisture convergence in the absence of sea breeze boundaries.  


The misnomer for both Thursday and early Friday will be if there is an ABSENCE of high clouds to start the days or heading into the early afternoon hours. There is a chance of strong to severe storms most anywhere over the state both days contingent upon at least the high cloud coverage scenario, the less amount of high clouds, the better chance of storms. ..coupled with the lack of any well defined (if any) sea breeze boundaries and fast steering currents from west to east. It may be that thunder will be restricted to off the east coast and just off or near the west coast on Friday and/or Thursday.


This scenario has been unfolding in the mid range models in various ways since Sunday, so we'll need to be monitoring both days for strong storm potential.

Forecast First Shot for Friday afternoon. Since previous post, model run continuity within and between models shows the front to pass through the state at least 12 hours sooner the previously surmised with a boundary being located close to that shown above around 2pm FRIDAY (the image is mis-labelled) 

SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to press rapidly down the state Friday, followed by a period of stronger NE-ENE wind later Saturday afternoon and evening. Saturday does not look like the best kind of day for beach goers, with low level clouds possible although not entire cloudy by any means and possible light showers especially along the SE Coast. The atmosphere becomes quite dry above 7000 ft or so and dries through Sunday beyond Saturday evening. The most windy conditions appears will Friday afternoon through late afternoon Saturday.


EASTER SUNDAY: LOOKING BETTER than previous forecast model runs.


Continued ENE winds around 12-18mph with a few low clouds and morning lows close to 65F at the beaches and cooler inland with highs in the mid-upper 79Fs., with winds gradually dying on out further into Monday and eventually becoming more WSW by Tuesday as the next boundary (show above ) approaches. So far, no rain expected with that boundary due to the nature of this particular synoptic scale set up not allowing atmospheric moisture to recover to high enough levels to formulate rain making type clouds. A small cooling trend appears to be in the offing from Saturday onward. most notable inland Sunday/Monday mornings and toward the west side of the state.

Increase in Rain/Storm Chances Each Day - Easter Preliminary Outlook

Shown is now the THIRD upper low in the same amount of weeks to enter the Desert SW Region. The question has been which direction will it take, to the North or toward the South as has been the case with the previous two systems. Latest guidance reads "South", and so, this post follows on that premise.

TODAY: Storms over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen in the water vapor image above. Increasing moisture could lead to another morning of low clouds/fog Tuesday once again with a shallow inversion present ..this would burn off in locations where fog exists and blows east through mid-morning. Otherwise, sea breezes at play on Tuesday could result in inland showers and perhaps thunder to be determined in the next 24 hours. So far, it appears showers Tuesday, and maybe Thunder Wednesday and/or Thursday.


FROM THERE we progress to Friday under the supposition that the upper level low shown above will progress first toward the ENE then E then drop south as was the case with the previous two systems. The last one took quite a drop though from the upper Midwest (Illinois) ..something in between the two paths could eventually evolve, but it is simply too early in the game plan to be definitive. Otherwise, Friday and Thursday late appear to be good days for rain chances (more so Friday)..and one of those days could have strong storms contingent upon outlying factors that are TBD.


SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to approach 'around this day time phase' either way, either track of low. And as such, the surface front glides through followed by the supporting mid-level trough within 24 hours. This leads to a surge of onshore winds and shallow enough moisture to bring in clouds and perhaps light rain as well.


SUNDAY: (EASTER) - Preliminary: GFS has been consistent the past 4 runs to bring in stronger onshore winds overnight Saturday night or Sunday, with the latest run as soon as late day Saturday. Easter Sunday, then, could result in cloudy skies and winds from the ENE-E at 20-30mph. Not a good day for Beach Side Services. To be monitored for continuity and subsequent updates here. 

Late today, 700mb analysis shows mid level High Pressure approaching Florida. and moving eastward with time as the low to the west moves east as well.

But first, we have the next 4 days to monitor. All in all, high temperatures could be held back due to high clouds (some days) but still in the 80Fs (at least). Low cloud mornings, clearing and warm, with an ever increasing chance of showers inland and working toward (or trying to) the East Coast early-mid evening as a result of increasing instability , moisture, and west to east mid level winds ahead of an onward (eastward) moving area of high pressure over the state of Florida. So far, Friday looks like a good chance of rain statewide, especially South Half in the mid-late afternoon, and north half earlier. 

Outside Activities Should Be on Alert for Stronger Storm Potential Today

Late morning visible satellite imagery distinctly portrays a 500mb vorticity max near the Panhandle (V) moving toward the E-ESE. Forecast models show two players 1)Potential side-shore to onshore east coast sea-breeze East Coast in predominant west to east steering flow aloft and ahead of the "V" and (2) Highest instability toward the south half of the state later today due to the north half (where stronger  mid-level winds preside) high level cloudiness. Thus, the Golden Magic Dividing Rule Lline across Central applies to "some degree" given this time of year of early spring. Best wind fields north, best instability south. WITH, the additive bonus of the 500mb V-max rotating across. Guidance indicates this might break up a bit this afternoon toward the south, running over an east coast/west coast sea breeze convergence toward I95..however...(read on)... 

TODAY: Not too much change in yesterday's thinking as an upper level vorticity max at 20,000 feet (500mb) is noted in the image above by the red "V". In animations, this appears as nearly a closed low pressure system which one would be otherwise be prone to assume was the case without model guidance and surface wind observations. 


This area is forecast to move E-ESE today and across the north half of the state, while lower level winds and frictional effects could generate low level vortictiy and coastal helicity along and east of US1 up the east coast of the state from east coast sea breezes (this is a prime assumption however which can make or break storm strength anticipations!).


Several thunderstorms have already moved across well toward I-10 today, with greater coverage expected to blossom from 1pm on AHEAD of the vort max as lift increases with daytime heating added upon with daytime heating ahead of that feature. A 300 mb jet streak is expected to strengthen toward the base of the 500mb feature across South Central Florida today, squarely placing a portion of Central Florida toward the right entrance region which would increase lifting mechanisms in the mid-levels of the atmosphere adding to upward extent of storm tops, however divergence aloft does not like significant with that feature. This factor, combined with a possible additive factor of low level convergence of the westerly wind / west coast sea breeze confronting the east coast sea breeze front could add additional low level lift from DAB (Daytona) toward Ft. Pierce inland toward I95. 


The factor that would preclude greater lift is that storms should be moving rather quickly today, leading little time for wind field dynamics to assimilate.


There is one other factor to consider however that none of the models have depicted. Should storms to the north escalate 'as expected' and begin to collapse due to anvil storm tops approaching the Tampa Area, that activity could get squelched out from  shaded sunlight, and their collapse could manifest as a large OFB (outflow boundary) propagating toward the ESE -SE which would race ahead into better heated areas to the south under the jet streak winds aloft. 


Anvil tops should stream off toward the ENE today..leaving those areas south of I-4 in better sunlight once activity starts to develop. Outflows have a funny way of moving under areas shaded from above.  With strongest jet stream winds south of SR 528 aloft moving from west to east..if any activity racing and forming in outflow could get either sheared apart or actually enhance, especially along a triangle running from DAB - Altamonte Springs - Kissimmee through the north 1/2 of Osceola County and off the east coast between Vero and Ft Pierce with an even small area as shown below harvesting a higher potential. 


Due note, this image is in considering that an OFB would form, otherwise, much of the activity along the Central Portion of the state might not be as strong, especially if an east coast sea breeze does not form:

RUC Analysis (Rapid Update Cycle) from 11AM shows the vorticity max at 500mb This is over-layed with radar actual, note that some activity has formed AHEAD of the max in the eastern Gulf.  

 
CONCLUSIVE WORST CASE: Possible strong and ' near severe storms' near Tampa and North as well as near Vero and North especially, with a possible outflow line of storms dropping ESE-SE from North Central Florida later this afternoon after 2:30pm. All guidance indicates activity will conclude by sunset, but timing could be still a bit of an issue considering an aspect of where heating occurs and whether or not an outflow forms, which again, is contingent upon stronger storms forming toward Cedar Key to Gainesville to Ocala areas by early afternoon. If so, strong storms possible in those area with the treat being strong wind gusts in excess of 50mph, and would not be surprised to see stronger gusts toward the East side in the orange and even black areas above if said outflow materializes.


SUNDAY: It appears the front will clear Central almost about the same time the front last Sunday had cleared the area. It will have no effect in regard to temperatures, only to dry out the atmosphere 'A little". In fact, only a warming trend is indicated, with potential 90F + readings popping up for the first time since last September.  

Warm and Pleasant, Storms Near I-10 Possible

Latest Visible Satellite Image Above: Strong Storms Possible in the Lavender Zone with isolate
thunder eastward to JAX near I-10 later today. Sea Breeze convergence showers and maybe a thunder interior north from near Ocala national Forecast and north. More widespread clouds, mainly north half Saturday with some showers and maybe some thunder toward east Central late afternoon.

TODAY: Another very pleasant day with SE-S winds at 10-15mph in store with some inland cumulus clouds and a few wisps of high level cirrus clouds, possibly more so very late day toward sunset. Latest satellite image shows storms as has been the case for two days near the Loop Current. Highs in the mid and a few  upper 80Fs interior and low 80Fs right along the East Coast where sea breezes prevail. There is a chance of an early evening sea breeze collision toward the north interior, but instability appears to meager at this time, and as forecast, to support much in regard to thunder.


SATURDAY: Winds become more SW-WSW on Saturday and quite warm particularly North Central to South Florida in the potential absence of an east coast sea breeze. Suspect high clouds might run along from I-4 and north producing more clouds than anything else with pockets of showers and perhaps some thunder more likely toward East Central as a frontal boundary of little regard (mostly mid-level disturbance) tries to swing by to the north. The best chance of thunder, if there is to be any, appears will be toward the east coast mid-late afternoon, although if high clouds are absent to the north thunder is possible as well toward I-4 if not yet further north. Rain chances to end by after sunset if not a bit sooner.


SUNDAY: Another boundary will swing toward North Florida with again a chance of showers, but thunder appears to be out of the picture.  Showers most likely toward the east side with westerly winds continuing and highs again in the 80Fs.


BEYOND: Frontal boundary could squeak toward Central but then slide eastward and out of the picture as the part low pressure area will be long gone to the north of Florida with a sub tropical jet stream reminiscent of last October late in the month steering in toward and across Florida. Not much change in temperatures with westerly type winds continuing across a drier air mass.


Another boundary may start to move toward Florida in the Wednesday time frame, but timing is quite sketchy in this regard.   

East- Central/North Isolated Shower Sprinkle Possible

At 1:30PM EDT a cloud line apparently along the outer periphery of a mid-level high pressure system is pressing toward the east central and Northeast Coast. Wind 'could' increase slightly along the coast as it presses on shore accompanied by a  small, isolated shower or two.  The moisture will continue well inland toward the west coast late afternoon and into the evening.
Sea breeze convergence could enhance this otherwise benign feature late today to generate an isolated thunderstorm near the Tampa area today and tomorrow.
Otherwise, a short wave trough could generate severe weather toward the east half of Kansas today. This trough could be the beginning of a pattern change for Florida by the weekend for several days there on out. 

Front Dropping South - Slowly (Thunder South Central/South)

ABOVE: Position of front at 8AM this morning, Sunday. This boundary will glide slowly southward through  noon time yet remain across Central Florida through noon time. During this time frame the front appears will begin to 'frag-mate'  with one portion remaining across Central with the other portion sliding southward, especially after 1pm.


The driest of air will be working southward from North Florida but never reach the current frontal position until nearly sunset along the east coast, but sooner toward the interior and west side of the state (lower dewpoint temperatures)...


Further south along and ahead of the primary boundary there is a slight chance of  isolated thunderstorms  , but mainly showers.  Cloud cover could linger toward central (party cloudy) until after sunset to varying degrees due to continued mid-level moisture overhead this area. 


Wind today behind the front will be from the WNW-W and gradually weaken and shift more toward the NW after dark becoming very light toward early Monday sunrise time. Stellar weather on Monday.


Winds then become a bit breezy Tuesday from the east  with a period of cloudiness and the possibility of showers (although timing of this 'possibility if even that' remains only somewhat sketchy as a second boundary  of 'moisture convergence'  swings through the south half of the state accompanied by the stronger winds for this day only.


 After Tuesday, the remainder of the week  appears will remain uneventful and quite pleasant with highs in the lower 80Fs and upper 70Fs near the east coast. Coolest east coast morning will be Monday with the NW winds, but once those swing to onshore heading into Tuesday it is back to status quo temperatures other than where clouds could be more prevalent on Tuesday.

Strong to Near Severe Storms Possible Esp. East Coast

Annotation for the 4pm time frame based on the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Weather Forecast Model. This image shows 'precipitable water' (PWAT) air, sum total moisture amount in certain levels of the atmosphere, in brief. The purple shows where it is 'possible' some stronger storms could occur; although, further north central could experience storms a bit further inland from the coasts as well. The 'blue' "Severe?" is a questionable area of interest from Southern Volusia to coastal Central Brevard for sole reason that the North American Model and RUC are showing rather strong upward vertical velocities along I-95 East Central Brevard specifically, as has been the case for 48 hours for the most part in previous runs.

For continuity, this shows the location of the upper level 500mb low today. Recall this low originated toward northern New Mexico several days ago. We can see also the next trough approaching the Western U.S., with a 'ridge' in between the two, much and not unlike two waves on the ocean. Those along the ridge are 'riding high' with nicer weather today in regard to rainfall. This is a forecast valid for 4pm EDT.

TODAY: A frontal boundary mostly defined as far as Florida is concerned by drier air behind it is  well to the north of Central and barely in the Panhandle yet still. This boundary will be across Dead Central around noon time Sunday as it stands now, give or take an hour or two.


Westerly winds today across much of Central and North Florida through noon time. Expecting , as yesterday's post mentioned, that perhaps a side shore up-river wind could develop from South Central toward  Volusia by mid afternoon. Steering for rain to move from today should be generally from the west around 12mph South Central and Central and faster further north toward Ormond and JAX due to closer proximity of the 500mb low shown above.  Vertical Velocity values from the 925mb (2000 ft) up through 700mb (10,000 ft) are coming in very respectable on the latest morning RUC model, as was  mathematically theorized by the NAM for the past two days near Central and parts of Southern North Central, especially near the coast. 


With a side shore wind (if indeed this manifests which is the BIG player today in regard to potential severe weather)  *possibly a bit 'gusty' and only apparent EAST of US1*, storms crossing the rivers from Volusia toward possibly Southern Brevard could acquire some local enhancement as they approach the coast. Temperatures well aloft are more than cold enough to provoke greater upward buoyancy, although surface based convective instability is not overly impressive, although ample.


Else where, some stronger storms due to greater winds aloft are possible toward Ocala, Orlando and north to JAX/GNV as well as south toward Northern Osceola County, into areas around Sanford for example toward Mims/Titusville, Oak hill, Scottsmore, and south perhaps as far south as Cocoa Beach to Satellite Beach. The jury is out regarding further south toward West Palm Beach or toward Martin County, but have not included this area in the graphic due to lack of greater moisture availability for strong storm generation south of Brevard County in this post.


Forecast soundings continue to show temperatures aloft as noted yesterday, and NAM forecasts from overnight indicated a shallow inverted 'V" type which would indicate a potential for Cold air to drop through a shallow dry layer enhancing surface wind gusts. Small hail is possible as well, but 'severe category' hail is unlikely due to lack of greater instability, but it could come close, hence the 'severe' annotation for 1" hail in one storm or two..and stronger wind gusts toward 58 mph... It appears the highest rainfall totals are possible over North Central along and near I-4 and north as well as a bit south. Rainfall totals though are not necessarily equivalent to storm strength, as those areas could be receiving rain prior to the time that the atmosphere could become most unstable. Thus, the greater VVs are further south.


SUNDAY: The "dry front" will be close to Dead Central sometime around 11AM-noon, with a chance of showers any time after midnight along and ahead of it across North Central and Central. The front will then proceed southward during the day with dry air following on NW winds. Clearing from North to South late morning through mid-afternoon.


Chance of Storms on Sunday will be greatest along the East Half of the State from Palm Beach County to Miami, and some of those could be strong as well, especially into Broward, southern Palm Beach County, and Dade..possibly toward Key Largo.


BEYOND: The upper (and mid-level low not shown) will be pulling off to the east, and so far guidance appears to indicate another 850mb trough will swing overhead with greater moisture stacked up along that as well., possibly another very shallow boundary underneath. Winds becoming NE-ENE-E overnight Monday into Tuesday at 12-20mph during the day and perhaps cloudy with a chance of showers some time on Tuesday, ending by the time we wake up Wednesday morning. No rain is foreseen beyond toward next weekend at least...although this time frame needs to remain open-minded for greater scrutiny in the next few model runs.

Late Showers/Iso-Storms Interior North - More Over Weekend

Forecast track of upper 500mb trough/low for later today and located near SW Illinois. This image shows the annotated previous location per red arrows from Arizona in the previous post and how, in general, it has proceeded ENE ward the past few days.

This image shows the approximate location for Sunday afternoon..note
the displacement from Illinois SSE-SE ward toward northern GA. Florida
is at this time now in strong winds (blue) aloft

FRIDAY: Happy Spring Renewal Time !  Did you get the cobwebs cleared from winter mentality?  I hope there is a spring in your step and mind. The skies and temperatures over Florida have been fabtabulous with few clouds, and quite warm...wow!  Much more in that regard for South and South Central today, but interior (later today) and North Florida is a different story.


If you received a blog post yesterday and actually read it, it is time to inform that was not of my doing. The 'poster blog system' erroneously sent out an old post. Apologies if this lead to any confusion. 


Today the upper low will have little effect on the state except toward the Western Panhandle toward Tallahassee as we will see further down in this post. Further east and south into the peninsula it appears ample moisture will be available for a late day east/west coast sea breeze collision time over and near the spinal interior, especially toward JAX-Gainesville region, and possibly working south along the east/west coast seabreeze collision late toward Western if not Central Volusia County.


Further showers could be set off well toward the SSW into Polk County at least, as I see the Storm Prediction Center is playing one model that far south. Although, I am siding more with the GFS and RUC and current trends..so without any activity South of the Tampa latitude looks 'questionable' as of this hour..but the region of all encompassing possibilities is included in this graphic.

 and this one

NOTE: this is the latest radar image, see the severe thunderstorm warning along the Florida/Georgia Border as indicated by the yellow box. This area is shifting Eastward slowly along with the upper low. The orange is where thunder could occur today..very spotty if at all south of I-4, but would not sell Lake County Short if not Polk (not shown in orange). I left a 'gap' across Northern (central). This line of reasoning is because believe activity shown on the peninsula will be due to sea breeze collision activity and outflows from that.

Saturday**: Frontal boundary to continue eastward, although poorly defined at the surface yet still; however, the activity that is being generated to our NW in the Panhandle today will re-emerge on Saturday toward Central Florida. Per trends of past three days, and fairly good model agreement, believe some activity (very very isolated) could be "strong" with small  (marble)  hail all East Central. This looks like a case on Saturday for a stronger side-shore type 'sea breeze' to form toward mid-late afternoon remaining pegged along US1 toward I95 at most, with steering aloft toward the E or ENE at 12 mph or so. Instability will be ample but not truly 'amped up' to warrant a higher threat . Temperatures aloft around -12C at 20,0000 ft and near 5C at 10,000 ft. (compared to -5C and 10C respectively  in summer, we can see those temperatures aloft tomorrow are much colder than in the summer when we have some strong storms by at least 5 degrees). But, it will still be warm at ground level. Models agree on Vertical Velocities (upward motion) very consistently model run to model run near and east of Orlando exiting off Central Brevard toward 6pm or so. With this line of reasoning, thunder storms seems a good bet somewhere across East central toward Tampa mid-late afternoon through early evening...and one or two could be on the strong side. Does not seem SPC will issue a "See Text" soley due to the isolated nature of this 'potential' activity, and if at all, mostly along the I-95 toward US1 to off the coast zones.

Sunday: The frontal boundary to be pushing through Central mid morning toward noon. Showers and thunder could again form during this time, especially after 11AM toward South Central. BUT, details get sketchy this far out in time though, especially since the  previous GFS is much faster than the NAM.  As of this morning, the GFS is slowing down though, and this seems feasible. With that , thunder again possible from the Central Dividing Line (affectionately labelled in these posts as the "Magic Dividing Line" running along SR528 ...) into South Central...and perhaps even SE Florida toward Palm Beach County./Dade mid-late afternoon and early evening...before the front clears the state.  

The Front: This front will be more or  less acting like a non-dynamic 'dry line'..but not anywhere near that seen in the Central Plains. Although Monday morning could be a bit cooler than past mornings and damp, sunrise will yield to much drier air as low level moisture mixes out into the dry air just above ground resulting in a warm and dry air (literally and figuratively) day Monday afternoon with a NW wind. Good day to hang the clothes out to dry if doing laundry. No rain expected again for a few days beyond at this point.  

Cont'd Breezes - Wednesday Showers A Good Bet

IMAGE Depiction,  per the latest Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Forecast Model,  the jet Stream position later today at 30,000 ft (feet). Note the unusual southern extent. Coldest air at ground level this time of year is typically near and north of the jet stream, which explains then the snow in parts of Arizona. This also shows how warm air has managed to reach across all of the Eastern States into the eastern Plains and as far and further than the Canadian Border as has been the case for several days. This trend was well depicted by models several days in advance.

TODAY: During the course of today the trough shown above will move slowly east north east in general into the weekend and be a rain and potential severe weather maker from time to time along its course.  An associated cold front will be a very slow mover as a consequence, considering today is only Tuesday. 


Weather appears  fairly juiced up for eastern Texas into Louisiana later today and northward to a  limited extent for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes, but a outbreak of any sort is not anticipated. Meanwhile, high pressure circulation continues the Florida east coast onshore flow. The pressure gradient will be holding its own tonight through tomorrow as winds become a bit more SE toward tonight. Additionally, forecast model trends are sticking closely together, depicting a well defined 'bubble pocket' of high precipitable water (PWAT) air to move in after sunset to after midnight toward the southeast coast which is then to work north and west through the course of Wednesday.


WEDNESDAY: As noted above, higher moisture content air to spread in over night.  This moisture appears to be getting drawn toward that humongous trough to the west as it steadfastly shifts east  ever-so-slowly toward the Mississippi River. Below is a hand-made graphic showing where this moisture and potential showers will work in. I did not include thunder for the early morning activity, although I could be selling the weather short. Latest NAM forecast weather balloon soundings do not appear to exemplify an atmospheric structure which would be support a cause to argue for thunder producing showers early on, or not at least until later in the day. By that time, the leading edge of the bubble of elongated moisture will be well inland during the course of daytime heating. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is not indicating thunder tomorrow other than toward Gainesville, but I am not prepared to deny areas further south some thunder as well as shown in orange below:

Above graphic for Wednesday. Green along east coast shows better moisture for producing clouds and showers spreading WNW per the black arrows during the day, reaching NW Interior toward western lake County, Ocala (perhaps) toward Gainesville after 2pm. Meanwhile, the east coast areas should be ending with the rain chances by mid-late afternoon, although clouds will remain present to a certain degree. The moisture for these showers, coming off the Atlantic appears it could work toward Alabama or Georgia in the next two days.


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: The deep elongated trough will be 'cutting -off' in the next 48 hours. Meaning, a closed low will form. Although model guidance is in fairly good agreement right now, closed lows are messy business to contend with in regard to how fast they will press onward, and in what direction. However, given the present circumstances combined with those yet forecast toward next week (more below), it seems relatively safe to assume they have nipped this closed bugger in the nip. 


Given that notion, best now to stick with model agreement but no-thing is dead pan certain concerning the weekend weather in regard to rain chances for Florida as a consequence. 


Lest we be left slap jawed and dumb happy, latest guidance indeed shows for a chance of thundershowers and/or showers, especially on Sunday as by now the cut off low is moving off the east coast or near to close to it. A weak frontal boundary will be entering the area of Central mid Afternoon Sunday. Winds by Saturday will have already started to become much more southerly on Saturday if not SW-WSW on Sunday. There is a chance there will be an east coast sea breeze pegged east of the spine of the state if not closer to the coast Sunday afternoon as the front sinks down the state. Best chances of thunder appears to be North Central to Central east side and south to Dade County beyond 2pm Sunday...


BEYOND: History repeats itself in more ways than one. Another deep trough to move into the West coast akin to a pattern we might see in a La Nina January, or reflective of it.  That combined with a negative Atlantic Oscillation (AO) would be the culprit I am 'thinking' for the "double dose of deep upper level troughs parade" toward the U.S. east coast. It is this approaching trough that will boot the prior cut off low as just noted out of the picture toward the early portions of next week, yet to make room for the next one to the western U.S. 


And now, the rest of the story...This next one could be even more extreme than the previous, so be ready to hear more weather ready recaps on the national news networks, The Weather Channel, onward and upward...up through next week... 

Strong Storms "Possible" Today - Wretchedly Windy Coastal Weekend

Note Captions. Factors pro/con for any storms today in the body of this post. Any storms that can manifest today , especially after 3PM have the potential for hail and/or strong wind

TODAY: The boundary/front noted yesterday continues Southward as forecast now across the Deep South, although the timing of its approach and passage on Saturday is a bit sketchy now per the morning North American Model (NAM). This post is based mainly on the current trends locally though, the RUC, and the GFS model, and an earlier run of the HRRR model (which I have not viewed again during the past 2 hours, so things could have changed). It is worth noting that should the NAM verify, conditions will not be quite as 'wet' which is feasible given the current situation atmospherically across East Central Florida, with better conditions for a storm or two <not shown here> toward Martin County , St. Lucie, or even Northern Palm Beach Counties. Otherwise:


Cloudy conditions over East Central this morning should break up a bit by noon time. Light sea breeze Central and North Eastern Coasts likely after 12-1pm, but should not make much   inland penetration beyond I-95 or 'so'. Temperatures aloft are quite cold today, with 500mb running around -12C per the KSC morning sounding (in the summer with our storms they were a much warmer, 8-10 +C ; this makes for a good 15-20C difference in how cold aloft the air temperature is today as opposed to during the summer. Cold air aloft makes for strong storms. 


The atmosphere is much drier today than in summer, but drier air can equate to more isolated activity allowing for storms (if they manifest) to not compete for the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that will be available, which is less than in the summer. It also allows for decent of cold air thru the drier layers, making for strong wind gusts at ground level. 


In short, we have competing factors pro/con for storms today. A 20,000 ft (500mb) wind increase is expected to surge across the north half of the state toward early-mid afternoon which should add additional lift to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. A con for storms would be the poor lapse rates showing up on the NASA/MLB LDIS graphic,  but those seem to be becoming more supportive during the past three hours as time goes by.


Steering today from Central to North Central will be from the west to east around 10 mph; however, the very cool sea-breeze will likely prevent any storms from penetrating much further east beyond the east coast sea breeze boundary, sapping them of strength due as they 'ingest' this cool air at ground and low levels of the atmosphere which causes activity to 'erode' along the forward moving flanks of the storms as they enter this relatively 'cold' sea breeze.


As such, storms (if they do occur) 'could' appear to move very little due the persistent 'progressive erosion from the east coast sea breeze. With this in mind, it is possible that some areas if storms manifest could see up to 1.00" of rain west of I95 toward Orlando, Osceola , Seminole Counties for starters, but any such manifestation will be very isolated. With the cold air aloft in place any stronger updraft in a generated storm (again - the pre-requisite for any storms in the first place is an updraft of significant strength which is a bit in question) could produce hail and frequent lightning . 


The NWS (National Weather Service) alludes to a potential of small hail. Whether or not it reaches severe size (1.00" in diameter) is definitely debatable considering the other factors that are either lacking or those that are too weak to support severe sized hail today. I suspect storm motion will be rather slow either way, but considerable cloudiness at least will over spread much of the entire Eastern Central State by later today due to shower or storm cloud debris moving from east to west above the depth of the sea breeze boundary. 


As noted in the above image caption, activity could be very isolated due to persistent East Central Cloudiness early today. If those do not break up, all bets are off for strong storms, with possible storms (or one) further south toward the NE-E shores of Lake Okeechobee.


Any rains, wherever they may (or may not be), should cease shortly after sunset with lose of daytime heating.


SATURDAY:  As noted a few posts ago, it looked like a repeat of the previous windy front (although at that time this was a questionable presumption, admittedly).  Meanwhile, the cold front will mainly be sliding off shore the U.S. East Coast to the North of Florida with the tail end skimming past Central anywhere between 7AM Saturday morning to mid-afternoon. For this post, I'm siding with the GFS consistency over the NAM's; this too, bears watching though. Either way, this 'backdoor' type front will be accompanied after passage by increasing NE-ENE winds of 20-23mph with gusts possible of 36mph near the east coast, as well as some showers from near Volusia County to coastal Brevard from the time of its immediate passage and up to 12 hours afterward. Very breezy, especially near the beaches overnight Saturday night.


SUNDAY: The wind surge due to high pressure building rapidly eastward beyond the front will force the moisture convergence band (remnant front) southward and down the east coast overnight Saturday and into Sunday as rain chances go to zero for Central. Wind will continue breezy, although not quite as strong as what potentially lies ahead for late Saturday and  Saturday night.


Rip currents will be a 'big deal' this weekend, considering the insurgence of  inexperienced guests from the northern climes who may not be as fretful of entering iceberg temperature water.

Variable Clouds, Eastern Showers Possible, More Likely Friday

Afternoon synopsis per the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Weather Forecast Model. Note the boundary now across the southern toward the NE portions of the U.S. Much rainfall is occurring along this boundary as has been implied for several days now. That boundary will be pressing east and slowly sink south into Central Portions of Florida early Saturday, barely!

TODAY: At least the wind has let up today, and as such coastal afternoon high temperatures will be warmer with less impact of wind blowing over cool water and sloshing the cool ocean air into those communities. Otherwise, little change in the local region. As can be noted above, a high pressure 'ridge axis' from a high centered yet further off the image will move very little although should sink slowly south with time as the front moves east. All in all, it appears that frontal boundary will barely clip the eastern shores of Central Florida before complete frontalysis occurs, leaving only a remnant moisture convergence band which could work down toward South Florida before even that depletes itself (Sunday time frame going into Monday). Meanwhile, comfortable temperatures in the mid-upper 70Fs and warmer west half of state and possible showers and overnight lows in the upper 60Fs to near 70F along the east coast, especially Brevard and South.

In the image I've colorized areas that could see a shower today ..the lavender in general is where the greater concentration of rain has been occurring along an old moisture convergence band from the previous frontal boundary. This band has lifted north a bit from Broward County (yesterday and earlier today into Palm Beach County ). Do note the  'enhanced 'area off Indian River County in this image. Radar shows showers moving toward Central and North Central Brevard, but at this time they are 'eroding' as they close in on the coast; possibly  due to cooler near-shore waters. Whether those showers will make it to shore is yet to be seen for the most part, and this has been the case for a few hours today so far. However, the blue area along Brevard mainly indicates that 'something' could very well reach the coast by mid-afternoon through at least mid-evening.  

FRIDAY: There are still indications that if it is going to rain solidly almost anywhere in the next few days (other than the area in South Florida like today) it will be on Friday from just north of I-4 and south. The GFS is very generous on this possibility from early morning (at the coast) to the entire state along those bounds as heating of the day commences. Suspect there could be some thunder given the cold air aloft, but there is little in triggering mechanisms other than perhaps some mid-level disturbance (minor) per the GFS. The NAM continues with advocating a possible sea-breeze collision toward Orlando (west side) late day in which case I believe would be thunder; other than that, it speaks little to rain chances elsewhere.Comfortable 73-77F degree readings. 80Fs west side of state away from any potential east coast sea breeze.


SATURDAY: The frontal boundary shown above will slide mostly eastward but sink south with time. In doing so, it will  absorb within the high pressure area depicted and wash out (frontalysis). Moisture will remain present ahead of this boundary, along it, and just behind it through Sunday as it side swipes Central Florida toward Palm Beach with time; thus, clouds and possible showers seemingly like today are possible through Saturday working from northeast Florida toward Central, and eventually Sunday (South) with a lower likelihood. 


As such, acting like a backdoor cold front as it were, a wind surge is possible behind the boundary remnants working down the coast as well with winds for a time similar to that of Wednesday. The fun-n-games with this boundary all regions should be over with by Monday through Wednesday at least with no change in the temperature regime of something like that of today..with little to no rain chance.


BEYOND: The next front so far is showing to behave in similar fashion if even that, with the overnight GFS showing no FroPa (frontal passage) going into the 3rd week of March. Realizing, any forecast beyond day 6 under the current circumstances is suspect...beyond the normal "template of suspicion" which is usually about 3 days. Sound the all clear.

Winds To Taper Off Thursday As Chance of Coastal Showers Increases

Latest Satellite Image as of 11AM EST. Note: 1) To the right is the white line delineating a break in cloud types associated with high pressure in the middle levels. Those clouds appear to be missing most of the state north of the line, although an offshoot of them continues to impact the coast which will likely work across the state during the noon hours. 2) The Blue arrows show the motion of some high level cirrus clouds impacting mostly the North 1/3 to 1/2 of the state from time to time. These clouds could increase in days ahead, especially later on Thursday into Friday. 3) The green area is where showers are and could occur today, working north with time (yellow) to as far north as Southern Volusia (light blue) by Thursday noon time. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should persist.

TODAY: Very breezy at the east coast beaches spreading inland during the day. Winds will remain overnight at the beach but be notably less 'breezy' heading toward mid-evening, while they decrease significantly inland and away from the beach. Overnight lows similar to last night with mid-upper 60Fs along the coast and mid-upper 50Fs inland. Showers around the Keys would work north into Dade County later today.


THURSDAY: High pressure NE-ENE of the state in the mid-levels and surface reigns supreme; however, near the 850mb (5000ft) height the ridge will weaken and pull off more to the east of the SE states into the Atlantic and in doing so the wind at this level will become more Southeasterly to SSE and draw the shower generating moisture well to the south of Central northward. 


Expect that moisture convergence along the east coast accompanying this mid-level moisture up through 10,000 feet will potentially have enough atmospheric depth (just as if one were to go deeper into the ocean of water, we can go deeper 'upward' into the depths of atmospheric moisture except it is coming to the east coast instead) .  In turn, showers could form mainly east of and along I-95 and work north toward Southern Volusia perhaps by early afternoon on Thursday. It appears the area further to the west in the state will remain too dry for showers but either way the clouds persist as winds all regions die down even further.  Outside of showers continued warming with highs in the upper70Fs toward lower 80Fs on the west side of the state in particular.


FRIDAY: Higher clouds (the blue arrows) will continue as they ride over a bit of a 'dirty ridge' (the clouds) located well aloft in the atmosphere to the west of Florida. Those cloud will be generated by moisture from a trough located near the Desert SW Region moving into Texas, ejecting high level moisture up and over the ridge and across Florida...thus spillage of high clouds, or 'dirty ridge syndrome'.  Outside of those clouds, the low level ridge will be close to Central Florida with very light winds. Sea Breeze convergence and if enough heating can work in during the day, destabilization enough for a possible thundershower in the Western Orlando area toward Eastern lake County or Northern Osceola County. Sea breeze although light but very cool in comparison to inland highs in the mid 80Fs  on Friday will keep any showers or storm from reaching the east coast with the light steering currents in place by that time as well.


BEYOND: Continued moisture in place over Florida as the frontal boundary which will likely be quite problematic for parts of North and Eastern Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee (in general) becomes stretched from East to west and sinks slowly south toward Central Florida. Showers could be in our area with this boundary as well during at least the first parts of the weekend if not the entire weekend for the north 1/2 of the state (and possibly southward as well) although for now the more likely scenario spells out at least more opportunities for clouds. No cold air yet is on the way!!   


This  boundary might come in to being a big player for a repeat of what we are experiencing today but with rain showers as well. The next boundary behind the forthcoming boundary of this weekend (which will create showers) might not even reach Florida at all.


 Recall: The previous front which made it fairly cool for 36 hours made it to the Florida Straits and washed out (the showers down there today), then the next boundary should make it toward Central (this weekend), then the next one sometime next week not even that far south. Thus, each front is progressively making less southward penetration across the state, and in turn, no cold air.


In closing today's observational and preliminary (and quite unofficial analysis) forecast, I've noted that sea surface temperatures are generally running nearly 5F degrees warmer than they were last year around this time for the area off Cocoa Beach and North.. ..which can be attributed to the fact that this has been a mild winter all along the Eastern United States from North to South.  This could play in to future forecasts as we head toward the last week of March and into April in regard to a number of things yet to be determined.

"Cat Does Not Try To Wise. It is All She Knows"