Will Wet Season Arrive in Perfect Synchronization Afterall?

GFS model forecast for overall atmospheric moisture content in the boundary layer (that in which weather occurs) for Wednesday Evening at  8:00pm

MONDAY/TUESDAY/EARLY WEDENSDAY: Not much change today through early Wednesday, although wind, easterly, could pick up a bit on Tuesday toward Wednesday near the east coast from South to North, which is contingent under explanation as noted below.


BEYOND: With that said, next comes the big period in question. Latest model guidance (NAM/GFS) have returned to the previous state of mind, bringing the Atmospheric Tsunami of Moisture northward. By all appearances, the old frontal boundary that finally pushed through a few days ago, which was partly responsible for the severe thunderstorm warnings,  had stretched out and become a bit elevated around 5000 ft will re-emerge and lift northward as a warm front as seen above. And the result, lifting and dragging northward of deep layer atmospheric moisture as a calling card.


Guidance is close to a- glee-ment for now, but previous runs showed nothing like this at all. For now, it is worth at least being aware of. Whether  that Deep Purple is 'Smoke on the Water"  (or a Smoke Screen) showing high precipitable water values will actually arrive right on the Summer Solstice to South and South Central and to as far north as the I-4 Corridor for the first full day of astronomical summer is yet to be known for sure, as this was a quick shift in guidance. This can only be determined with greater assurance (or not) in future model runs. 


After further evaluation, it seems by all appearances is that what guidance is awaiting arrival of is an anomaly or perturbation  in what would be an otherwise un-fazed environment known as an observed and named phenomenon called the MJO or Madden-Jullian Oscillation.  


If this is correct, or something close to this does occur, chances are the first 72 hours will be the most rainy, but once the atmosphere by then worked over and fully saturated for that long of time occurs, even though the atmospheric moisture remains high, chances are it will most cloudy .  But before then, guidance shows up to 4 or more inches could fall in various locales between Thursday through Saturday.  Much depends on what is to be depicted in the next few runs which come out every 6 hours..So not to hang the hat on this one just yet. For all we know, next model run will revert to something completely different, as was the case earlier/over-night. But do not be surprised if you see something like this on the news.


The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific (except over the region of warmer water off the west coast of Central America) but occasionally reappears at low amplitude over the tropical Atlantic and higher amplitude over the Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

For more information:    http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html 

Waiting for the Atmospheric Tsunami To Strike! But Wait, There's More

Atmospheric Precipitable Water Color Coded Values Forecast By the GFS Model for Thursday afternoon. Note the  "monsterTube Ride" offshore the Cape 10,000 Above ground. Purple is Deep Moisture with the greys and white almost off the charts full saturation from the ground to the jet stream level.

TODAY AND UNTIL GROUND ZERO: Not much really to chat about today since for the most part weather across the state will remain essentially dry rain wise outside of a very isolated shower through early to mid-week.


Forecast guidance is all showing that EVENTUALLY  moisture from the South will lift north, but much of the timing on this self-determined ' event' is greatly hinged on development of low pressure somewhere between the extreme SW Caribbean toward the Lower SW Gulf of Mexico. The more closed up the low pressure is, the longer it will take for moisture to get here. The more open it is,  the sooner.   Models are shifting from Wednesday to Thursday to as late as after NEXT weekend as of yesterday for moisture arrival up the state.


Additionally, where exactly one or more lows will form can also be tricky. For all we know, one could form near the Bahamas AND in the SW Gulf somewhere.


Thus, until the time of the moisture arrival occurs,  mostly from south to north, it's a guessing game until something happens. The only safe thing to say is that pretty much the weather will be non-eventful until that time.


For comparison's  sake:  Last year the arrival of deeper atmospheric moisture arrived in near perfect sync with the first astronomical day of Summer. This year, the Summer Sol - (Sun) - stice  is on June 20th at 7:09 PM  EDT. as it crosses the Tropic of  (Skin) Cancer. On this day, the sun is at it's peak height in the sky at appropriately deemed "High Noon".  In short, what this means is that moisture will not be here by the first day of summer this year. Interestingly, the Tropic of Cancer is not a fixed location either, but slowly moves over a period of years by a few 1/100s of degrees of Latitude.  On the other hand, this day will mark  the first official day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

Of all things, interestingly, my Weather Channel Weather Guide Calendar does not have the first day of summer noted on it. I want a refund.  


 Why is this moisture arrival important? It will herald in the onset of the Florida 'wet season' not to be confused with the 'convective season' which has been experienced lately. With the wet season comes warmer overnight lows , higher afternoon humidity, and typically not quite as warm afternoon highs as those that can be experienced before the onset of this season. Afternoon highs across the state during the wet season always fall within a 'typical summer time regime' year after year. It's just a matter of time now. Also, although thunder storms and showers can be expected with greater continuity, they are not usually as strong due to less dry air in the mid levels , weaker to very very light winds aloft, and warmer temperatures aloft as well. In short, wet season regime storms are a high percentage of the time influenced primarily by sea breeze and lake breeze interactions without any real synoptic scale fronts. In the absence of fronts or well defined troughs, the key is the location of the low to mid level high pressure areas to the east. If the Atlantic/Bermuda high ridge axis is North of Central, most storms hit the west coast  ..and if South of Central, the east coast..and if dead across Central, the I-4 corridor is the hot location from Tampa to Daytona. South Florida often has a mind of its own with the additive factor of the Everglades and very light winds playing near the Okeechobee Lake Breeze boundary.


Talking about Atmospheric Tsunamis.  Actual Tsunamis leave a destructive and often deadly stamp on land, but they also make a surprising and poorly understood impression high above the Earth.  Now scientists are turning their gaze upward in the hunt for signs of these as-yet mysterious "atmospheric gravity waves" generated by tsunamis, in an effort to gather better data on the potentially devastating ocean-based waves and improve tsunami warning networks. They're using a familiar and ubiquitous tool — GPS — to do it.

"The tsunami very effectively generates atmospheric gravity waves, and because they're fast, those waves can effectively travel to the upper atmosphere ," said Michael Hickey, a physics professor and associate dean at Embry-Riddle.  Although not included in the article, it got me thinking about animals keenly detecting those waves and fleeing before humans are even aware of the impending surge  (outside of a warning system).

Strong Storms Possible Mainly South Central and South Florida Today - Transition

Cape Canaveral Wednesday Early Evening, Storm Approaches

TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking. Below is pictured that the low off the panhandle is joining with a mid level trough off the mid-Atlantic coast to Florida. The low proper will begin to lose organization and open up, but not too quickly. Other wise, the only other features to monitor are a dry slot  in the mid levels which seems could be crossing a portion of South Central this afternoon, holding off storms almost entirely. Indications per short and mid term guidance indicates less energy aloft today, and there is little in coastal convergence along the east coast. Do not expect the east coast sea breeze to be quite as active today since instability is not quite as high as yesterday .  Do not expect the west coast sea breeze to be quite as active either. The only other difference is that temperatures aloft are a bit colder than yesterday. Net result could be something like this:

BLUE is the general location of mid level boundary which will sink slowly south with time.  Green is where showers could occur mid afternoon from of all things, moisture from the NE direction. This moisture approach is also accompanied by instability, as was the case yesterday. Thus, the yellow means we might hear some thunder in that area, since the coldest air aloft is in this location as well. Orange, better chance of storms overall.

 ZOOMING IN:

Again, purple is in the mid levels. There is a dry slot in there moving toward the same area as well, which is the wrench in today's forecast. Timing for where and when the strongest storms will be is difficult.

 STORMS TODAY: Tough call, sea breeze collision will be hard to come by until far south Florida near Lake Okeechobee, so would expect the strongest storms to be in the red zone, perhaps just inland from the coast, but never say never with boundaries around (synoptic scale ones as shown in the images).  Atmosphere is not as unstable today and there is little in upper level energy compared to yesterday at this same time. It is still a bit early, but all in all with cold air aloft and winds in the upper levels providing lift it might not make all that much difference anyway, seeing as how this is Florida after-all. Air is pretty dry south Florida though, so any storm that can eventually get cranking could reach severe potential from West Palm across to Port Charlotte , somewhere about 20 miles from either coast (orange to red in general). 


Elsewhere, some stronger storms could manifest of short duration working South to South Southeast or Southeast into the red zone. Yet still, in green showers could manifest with a surge of low level moisture later today accompanied by instability as well. Could be some thunder if any of this isolated activity manages to manifest, although not drawn in on the second image for today's 'depiction' since that chance looks to be very low.


BEYOND: Storms again possible South Florida for one more day, but elsewhere ENE winds will pick up on Saturday, decreasing some on Sunday. Chance of a few isolated showers near the coast, mainly from Vero Beach and North through Sunday into Monday. The time frame of Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday looks very quiet other than some clouds and maybe a shower near the coast around sunrise or so.  Official Summer Begins astronomically speaking around June 22nd. In review of last year, I saw that our Wet Season began almost on the exact same day as the first day of summer, and if the trend in model guidance continues per last night...this year will not be far off the mark with a tidal wave of atmospheric moisture consistently at or above 1.70" inches most of the time from next weekend on out being depicted, working from South to North beginning late week and into the weekend (next weekend).  In comparison, during the winter precipitable water (moisture) seldom exceeds 1" and most often is less than 0.5".

Chance of Active Lightning Storms Interior After 4:30pm Central

Image shows low continuing to spin near Panama City early afternoon. Boundary 'seems' to extend from that low down the spine of the state toward the previous boundary that passed down and through Central late yesterday (blue dashes). 

TODAY: After a fairly lightning active day with a few reports of pea to nickel sized hail in North to North Central and likely toward Lake Okeechobee (west of Vero to Ft. Pierce) today is amounting to look not all too much different for later today so far with the difference being that activity should for the most part remain away from the I-95 corridor. Do not think we'll hear and severe weather warnings, but some Special Weather Statements could be in order.


Factors today:  First, winds aloft today per model guidance are not steering quite as strong as yesterday to the east, BUT..the KSC sounding showed winds just as strong as yesterday in the steering level, which leaves the First Question in my  mind right from the get go. Why is that? Did the guidance not pick up on the KSC sounding or was it a fluke sounding? Latest trends are not showing activity to the north being steered, but then again, models are not showing winds aloft to the north to be as strong in the first place either. Even though graphic does not show it, (as you will see), the area closer toward I-95 in South Brevard toward Vero/Ft. Pierce again might want to consider the better chance of rain and thunder.


Additionally as of this hour, models do not seem to have a grasp on the situation today AT ALL. Or rather, there is little consensus in the precip. fields. Thus, some of this post is based on trends and playing "Seer-caster". 


Second factor. There is quite a bit of instability over the Atlantic off shore the Cape and north as well as in the Gulf. Suspect both sea breezes could become active today, with any activity being steered by
A. The inland extent of the sea breeze fronts
B. Localized boundaries established by the local Lake Breezes
C. Propagation from north to south along either sea breeze as a result of outflow from any previous storm further north.  


Third factor: At time, conditions SOUTH of where storms are now occurring are not favorable for storms due to a few mitigating factors as a 'dry ripple' runs west to east across South Central or south of I-4 for the most part. This area should move on with a moisture surge coming in later today couple with the "sea breeze squeeze -  rush hour shuffle" ..enhancing activity right after peak heating and as other conditions in the atmosphere become more diurnally favorable by nature.

Suspect overall storm motion will be slow, with localized 'deep puddling' of water, frequent lightning especially after 5:00 pm to 7:30pm in the interior of Central working toward South Central.  The Areas that seem could be bigger targets are parts of Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and west Volusia perhaps, toward Lake County. Some activity 'could' enter Brevard but do not believe it would be nearly as potent as activity in the vicinity of the spine of the state. Light rain could fall south of the Cape, but so far lightning does not seem in the cards.  As usual, lightning is the main threat, although small hail (which poses no threat) is again possible as well as some stronger wind gusts where initial storms form and the collapse after reaching their maturation stage.


Activity could work into South Florida as well later today. Conditions look more favorable than yesterday and the day down to the South   for later today as the air mass modifies to the north and works south with time. Once again, though, what is working against most everyone south of where storms are occurring now is High Downdraft CAPE values, which are favorable for strong wind gusts, but first a storm has to be able to generate in that environment.

 BEYOND: With that mess taken care of, not too much to write about really through at least mid-week next week other than there could be a period of breezy onshore winds come Saturday northern coast, periodic cloud bands with showers with timing being an issue in this regard but most likely early morning toward noon time working west during the day for Sunday as well.  


The low near Panama City will open up and merge with a mid level trough to sink down the state from a low offshore the Carolinas. Behind the boundary ENE winds will develop through the 8000 ft level at least, eventually bringing Atlantic showers and patches of clouds in to the coast and across the state from time to time.


Sunday could be the more rainy chance day of the weekend as the depth of ENE-NE flow increases. The only chance of thunder appears to be South and West Florida, but would not be totally shocked to hear thunder coming in off the ocean from the Cape and South over the weekend as instability will be offshore and air aloft rather cool given the circumstances.


No tropical concerns other than the usual question mark near the Yucatan Peninsula. Trends are pointing further and further west for development in that area, but exactly how much development is a moot point for U.S. Interests as it looks now; at least in  regarding direct impacts.  Moisture surge could be in the making from the South late next week, otherwise, the Non-Existent  One True Summer conditions of what would be typical for Florida this time of year continues, just like all of 2012 has been so far. Typically untypical. Makes one wonder if Climate Change is an oxymoron defining itself within its own limited bounds.    

Thunderstorms Likely - Some Extra "Potent"

Osceola County east of Kissimmee on Tuesday. Elevated "shelf cloud" resultant from a Dry and Stable Sea breeze well inland , with no (zero) Convective Available Potential Energy with the sea breeze

TODAY: Potentially 'interesting' day in store for much of the state, with only the region south of Lake Okeechobee not really playing in.  The East Coast Sea breeze has begun as far north as the Cape Kennedy Area at least at last observation. Exactly how far inland it will progress will be a key factor today regarding where the strongest activity will occur. It would seem most likely that the further north one progresses the less inland (if any) westward progression the boundary will make.  There are indications that the east coast sea breeze will especially active today though already, based on the trends of some parameters last seen prior to this post that would support stronger than usual thunderstorms.


A trough of low pressure resides to the far end of the state, but that will not be as much of a factor as much as the mid-upper level trough stretched diagonally from ENE to WSW across far North Central.  High clouds associated with a mini-jet stream streak continue to proliferate South Florida, with East Central over Brevard at this time experiencing the greatest upper level divergence associated with the highest Convective Available "potential" Energy, Instability, across the state just inland and to the WSW as far south as the north side of Lake Okeechobee. This is one reason to watch Dead East Central: Brevard, Southern Volusia, Seminole, Eastern Orange and Osceola Counties over toward  Indian River and St. Lucie Counties (late). Further north toward North Volusia and Flagler, the boundary itself seems will be a greater player due to its closer proximity as well as an upper level vorticity max that has moved little so far since sunrise. This 'vort max' extends across all of East Central however, with the energy "advecting" across the eastern 1/2 of the region. Air temperatures aloft and forecast soundings as well as forecasts of those temperatures would justify at least considering frequent lightning, wind gusts around 45mph and pea sized hail. Any storm  resulting from the perfect collision of the sea breeze and outflow from another storm in collapse phase could result in a funnel cloud , especially along the east coast  sea breeze, where ever that may be located  later this afternoon. Steering of storms, in general, is west to east at 15mph. 


The strongest of storms it would seem will be those that latch on to the east coast sea breeze boundary and work SSE-SE ward against the late afternoon sea breeze (if that in fact will occur at all) if that were to occur. Currently the wind is 'quite easterly' in Canaveral and SE further south, but that wind should start to become much more southerly Central locations from Ft. Pierce and north later today due to the Coriollis Effect .  This will increase low level helicities  (spiraling horizontal winds) being pulled into higher instability located just away from the coast. Thus, the most potent storms in regard to hail potential and just maybe a funnel are noted in red below. 


In reality, the red zone could be 1/2 that size, but given the early time of the afternoon, and the fact that the sea breeze is in place which none of the models were showing at the time of this posting    was to even be in place, this throws a vital wrench in whatever the time delayed forecast models are showing. 

Given the track record though..the red and purple zones are contenders for some 'potent to extra potent' lightning producing storms and small, nuisance hail. That is not to say that a storm or two will not exhibit pulse Severe  or Near Severe characteristics. Chances are, any storm that can produce such winds will also be one that can produce the near severe hail size.   Other storms could occur across far North Florida, but due to the greater focus toward Central, have not mentioned in today's post.  Area to keep a second eye might very well end up being from near Vero toward Ft Pierce.  Air aloft here is much drier, so whatever can go up in that area in earnest would need to be watch, the question is..can anything go up there in earnest to start with. Some areas could also receive a storm or rain shower more than once.  The other, last but not least thing to consider is brief, localized in those areas most prone to it,  flooding of road ways in pour drainage areas due to brief but heavy rainfall.


THURSDAY: Another variation of today, only different. This does not say a whole lot, other than many of the same areas could get wet again, to include South Florida.  We will be in-between boundaries, as the northern one will hesitate a bit as low pressure forms offshore the Carolinas. The main factor to watch by then will be the boundary at 2000 ft, since surface boundaries appear to get absorbed/absolved away during the day.


 That 'upper' boundary  just above the surface will work down the state into South Central by Thursday evening some time..so it appears perhaps the strongest activity will be from Cape Canaveral and South on Thursday. The boundary then clears much if not all of the state by Friday mid-day, as Northeast winds, some quite gusty from New Smyrna and north work in. Coastal showers possible on Friday and Saturday and into Sunday, especially north of West Palm Beach, but in general it appears they will be isolated, perhaps scattered from time to time, but decreasing in likelihood later on Sunday and into Monday as winds become more easterly and decrease.


BEYOND INTO MID WEEK: Easterlies continue, light. Eyes are on the extreme Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan Bay. The GFS and Euro came into close agreement as of this morning for the first time, taking 'something' toward Brownsville in days to come. On the other hand, it was only just the run before that the GFS brought a large tropical storm northward toward Mississippi, then curving it east ward toward the Panhandle or Big Bend area. AND, to make matters worse, the run before that showed no tropical storm development at all. To cut to the chase, given that if or when anything forms is beyond the time frame of model consistency (obviously) as well as reliability, there is little point in focusing on this issue until there is something to see. Invariably, guidance will be bouncing all over the place until that time, and even still and yet, once something does exist (if it does at all)..we then go into Phase II of uncertainties. Thus, as an added bonus at this point, we are only adding uncertainty atop more uncertainty.  Much of the discrepancy, should one ask, seems to be concerning the strength of high pressure over the Atlantic that will be in place once those aforementioned easterlies are in place (as a result of   high pressure over the Atlantic):  where it will be located,where it will move, and its strength and persistence. 

Fairly Rapid Air Mass Modification Making For Tricky Forecast Into Central Today

TODAY: Boundary delineated clearly extending from the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf. At the time, high pressure over Central Appears to be quickly dropping south and/or shrinking or retreating to the west as the trough in the mid levels drops south toward North Central.  Cumulus clouds alone are late in getting started. Latest trends and guidance continue to show an early evening chance of showers/storms (in general) as noted above, but not really expecting anything (as of now) terribly strong.  
, modify, destabilize in time for storm formation before the sun gets too low in the sky. The region to the South is much drier, so the SE winds are advecting in very stable air toward the coast , especially toward South Brevard and South, where as air closer to central is where the changes occur for now.  Expect that by later today the interior area will not be affected   either way. although it does not look so much like a sea breeze collision kind of day except perhaps west of Orlando. There appears to be a separate boundary extending toward DAB (delineated by the clouds offshore), that might end up being the key factor for any thunder/showers today. To note: The NAM shows no activity in this area today..whereas the RUC  (RAP) model changes with every one to varying degrees. Not really expecting anything 'strong' so to speak, but lightning is lightning. Best chance of activity will or should be toward the North early on then migrate SSW-S for a time..toward the interior of Central by 6pm...with other showers possibly formign along the said boundary (if in deed there is one).


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: GFS has backed off considerably on storm coverage the next two days. Indications are lack for a sea breeze which would leave some thunder and rain showers Central to the North..but coverage does not look too impressive. Have to keep monitoring both days. It could just be that the transition now in play occurred as data was coming out, which skewed any subsequent out put.  


BOUNDARY of Sorts should be getting through Central by later on Thursday which then puts the state in NE-ENE as noted yesterday, with a chance of mainly coastal showers, possibly more like thunder in to the interior and SW Coast later in the week. This scenario could play out for a number of days, with the area mentioned previously to develop in thh SW Caribbean more messed up than ever in regard to when where of even If anytying will form down that way later next week..and even is so..what will become of it. See no indicaitons of tropical storm formation at this time. By guess though is that once this boundary pokes through the state toward the straits by the weekend we will finally have a better grasp on what will become of the Caribbean Moist Pack..

Storms Today West Interior Toward JAX /TLH and PNS

RECAP: Image above shows highlighted area in yesterday's post...in the purple zone.  As it was, much of the region thought to have strongest activity there and in orange (more isolated) came close to fruition as can be seen below. There was several severe thunderstorm warnings late afternoon and into the mid-evening, yet only a few reports came in, those to the north from 'wind damage' caused by fallen trees. Thus, we will never know if it was actually severe category winds that caused the trees to fall. Otherwise, there was tremendous amounts of lightning activity, but frequent to excessive lightning does not quantify a storm as being severe. One strike from one small thunder-'shower' is just as deadly as 5000. Often , in fact, it is the first strike or first few..or the last strikes that do the bodily damage and not the frequent ones in between. Thus, 'when it roars head indoors' (if it is not too late). Because the damage can be done before one hears the roars.
Below is a sample of lightning (the white cluster last night) as well as some of the warnings, only a few samples. That 4th area which was two warnings at once correlates with the most lightning.

TODAY: Totally different story. Ridge in the mid levels is lifting across much of North Central Today messing with steering currents. Most activity in the area of interest for the blog will be noted below down the North interior toward the west side of the state, mainly after 5-6pm when sea breezes  and boundaries meet . Temps aloft are still cold enough for stronger storms with tiny hail , strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning, although do not think it will be the show we had last night.

We can see here the Craven Brooks significant Severe Weather parameter was getting 'juiced up' well before any of the storms in Central had even begun late yesterday! But it was not long after ward the chaos erupted from a few single storms from Daytona And North to one big  lightning parade, much of which was abetted by a series of propagating storms all the south from SW Florida which worked northward.

Today's Areas of Interest in General with Captions.

TUESDAY: High pressure still in control while a low pressure trough aloft and a weak frontal boundary begin to approach the state. Believe similar conditions tomorrow will exist but with slightly better steering toward the East than today. All in all..we can probably shift the northern area of interest to the east another 50 miles in general..if not more so from Flagler County North and  perhaps the DAB area. The trough will be sinking south into the late afternoon and all night, some activity in which case could approach Brevard's more northern area from the NW-NNW after dark.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Two frontal boundaries really are in play on Wednesday with one near Central and the other much further north. Either way might not make a difference since sea breeze interactions will be the secondary if not primary focus, ample instability, and slightly stronger winds aloft. Expecting thunder as far south as portions of South Central and possibly lasting late night east central portions south of New Smyrna Beach as the first boundary works south.


By Thursday the southern boundary washes out with the second one sinking south to replace it. Wednesday 's activity should break the dam for South Florida, so  we could see near statewide activity Thursday afternoon, but the greater details at this time are beyond even bothering to contemplate.


FRIDAY: The secondary boundary will press to South Florida over night Friday night at the latest, with the bigger focus South of I -4 on Friday, possibly beginning early on in the day. After dark strong and stacked high pressure builds off the mid Atlantic coast behind this boundary and into the Western Atlantic, followed and accompanied by deep ENE-NE winds at the surface and aloft blowing across warmer ocean waters and accompanied by still cold air aloft. This could bring a big shift in the pattern through Sunday with timing being an issue. 


SATURDAY: Could see early showers and some thunder east side spreading to the W-SW coast by night fall. Then on Sunday/Monday time frame looks more like a secondary wind surge accompanied by deeper ENE-NE winds under cold air aloft and above warmer ocean waters  which could send in surges of convective bands of rain showers, mainly for the coast, but spreading inland during the day as thunder.


BEYOND: The issue with the tropics remains uncertain for earlier next week. One model run will show a n Atmospheric Tsunami working north accompanied by heavy rains, the next run will show most of the activity skirting to the east of the state. It seems most likely though that by early to mid next week the next change in the pattern will commence and that if nothing more, the wet season will officially have begun no matter what the chain of events it is that unfolds.

Preempt To Summer Like Pattern Today

“From there to here,
from here to there,
funny things are everywhere.”

TODAY: Image caption about sums it up. Today will be the first of 2012 most resembling a summer like pattern for what it's worth, but it will be short lived. Otherwise, quite humid now late morning with dewpoints running in the mid-upper 70Fs and Cape Canaveral AFS reporting a dew point of 80F with heat index of 97F! One fish two red fish blue fish...and flying fish at that rate .   Outside of the muggies today has the look and feel of a typical late afternoon and early evening thunderstorm set up, with that "mainly along to west of I 95" feel to it; that is except for a trough entering the western Panhandle which appears will ram in to the ridge of high pressure building  into South and Central Florida during the day. That is not summer like.


Typical strength afternoon east coast sea breeze should be able to get started by early afternoon, but not be all too strong. Some showers to go up along it., with thunder beginning toward 4 pm possibly near Northern Volusia or into Flagler County near I-95 if not even toward US1 for a time... then working along a line to the SSW into Orlando and near Sanford toward and west of Kissimmee, with other weak storms either side of that line propagating along the East Coast Sea breeze which by that time will be well inland. 


Could also see some activity along the NW Side of Lake Okeechobee along the Lake/West Coast Sea breeze.  Storm interactions north first should propagate south along the aforementioned  line defined by the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze with a collision occurring late between both coastal breeze toward western or Central Orange into Osceola and finally Polk Counties toward 6pm through 8pm.  


Believe strongest storms (that from wind near 45mph in gusts and maybe some brief pea hail) will be after 6:30pm into or near SW Orange, near or west of Kissimmee, and portions of eastern Polk. Other storms particularly active into Southern Lake County...


With steering from the West to east..could be some rains of light intensity spreading over much of East Central south of I-4 after 6 or 7pm, or simply a lot of high and mid level   'storm debris' cloudiness.  Otherwise, some stronger activity could occur in the West 1/2 of the panhandle, but suspect the primary concern there will be heavy rain totals west of Panama City.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Much less chance of any rain many areas except late in the day near I-4  Tampa to I-95 and north.  (mainly north 1/2 of state) with late day showers possibly working into North Brevard Tuesday evening.


WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: So much for a typical summer pattern. Although it might look and feel like summer, with a frontal boundary moving in on the state synoptically speaking it won't be. Much better chance of mid afternoon to late evening showers and thunder, especially Thursday and as far south as South Florida moving toward the East Coast, especially Thursday and Friday. Guidance remains a bit iffy still, but in general Thursday through Friday and maybe Saturday have been highlighted for said activity as a heads up at this point. The front could get as far as Central will it will hang out, much like our last event before being absorbed by a large Caribbean Sponge bath from the south.


BEYOND: Gets messy. Surge of moisture associated with large area of low pressure to work north from the SW Caribbean by Sunday or Monday time frame next week and could be in the pictures for a few days. Looks like another version of what we just had only more activity with a tropical feel to it. Bigger impacts, if so, appears will be rainfall with some thunder, but the primary concern given the warm air aloft associated with deep tropical air mass transport from the south. It gets messier in that it could get tied in with another frontal boundary

Scattered Showers and Thunder Mid-Aft Through Mid-Eve

Small showers and some thundershowers, possible heavier storms in yellow with stronger wind gusts especially north Florida late this afternoon into early evening

TODAY: Much different pattern today, with more sun at last. There is some negating factors that will preclude larger storms through 5pm though at least. Not to say there will not be a lot of spotty showers and some thunder, but a large complex that moved across the South Half of the state overnight left residual ' stabilizing aftermath' . Stable means not good for storms, so despite activity getting underway already as I type, the atmosphere really does need to recover into unstable mode more cleanly. 


A boundary seems to exist, sort of a pseudo-warm front  as was noted yesterday could happen, from near the Cape NW ward and over the Panhandle. Additionally low level shear is up and down the east coast with a weak sea breeze. The intersect is somewhere near Volusia or Brevard County along the boundary and where winds cross it from the WSW aloft, so that area especially east 1/2 of Volusia and north 1/2 of Brevard bears watching later today, as well as along I-95 further south, and across I-10.  Lifted parcel levels are too high earlier today, this mid-afternoon, for deep convection but the character of activity could take on a different flavor after 5:50pm or so, especially after 6:30pm in those yellow areas. Activity could continue well into mid-evening they fade of later tonight in isolated pockets. Some of the storms could be 'tricky' today along toward the Cape especially and near the east side of Lake Okeechobee from Vero to West Palm Beach.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More isolated type activity except toward the interior north of Lake Okeechobee but closer to the coast near and north of I-4.In short, nothing has changed in this line of thinking since yesterday.


LATE TUESDAY: A weakly defined trough will be near the Central to western Panhandle with an upper level  dropping southward, quite broad at that. This will eventually set up more of a SW Flow aloft, pushing activity toward the east coast. This is first noted well north of 'the Big Lake' on Tuesday, but the rest of the state gets into the action Wednesday -Friday or Saturday. Although it is getting to be mid-June, it really does not look at all like a typical summer set up, as again the southern branch jet and lots of boundaries around of synoptic scale size will be in place as opposed to a pattern being dictated by placement of high pressure ridges typical of a summer regime.


BEYOND: Will be watching for 'something' to form in the far Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan to surge northward. The GFS is consistent with bringing anything from a large tropical storm like feature or simply 'organized moisture surges embedded in broad low pressure toward Florida", whereas the ECMWF yesterday as too the GFS brought a tropical like feature into the far eastern Gulf with tropical storm type winds across Florida. The ECMWF shifted gears this morning taking something well to the west, whereas the GFS takes less organization further east. Not even a surface low in fact. Thus, the area is worth watching when that time comes around. That time frame being the beginning of the week after the one coming up already alluded to in the previous paragraph., or around the 15-20th of June. 

Mostly Cloudy, Muggy, with Showers and Some Thunders

Captions say it all

TODAY: As of noon time the old frontal boundary that was near I-10 is sinking south per all model guidance prior to yesterday's post, and so it is to be as models show it now near I-4 but sinking into Dead Central or near there by mid-afternoon where it then undulates in that general area into Saturday. The surface boundary is expected to sink to the Central Dividing Zone from near the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay area by 6pm as it begins to 'wash out' or be absorbed a bit by high pressure building east and south to the north of the state later on Saturday. The boundary should remain across Dead Central or northern South Central into tomorrow before losing all identity, or what little will be left of it. The front is barely surface based as it is, and likely will only be more evident with time between 2000 -4000 ft above ground.  


Otherwise, all things aside, mostly cloudy but with a few good clouds breaks here and there, ex-specially toward the Lake. As it is, not hesitancy there.. showers and thunder have already begun, taking advantage of the opportunity to savor the sun's energy supply. During the remainder of the day, the most likely areas to get thunder will be just upstream of where the larger cloud breaks occur, primarily any of those in the 2:30-6pm time frame.  Best convergence along the boundary coupled with only slightly stronger wind aloft could result in a stronger storm toward Eastern South Central and SE Florida (earlier than the more northern area of interest). The area from Port St John/Canaveral to MLB 'could' be an area to watch, but further south toward Vero may also be more favorable. Also, the east side toward West Palm toward Dade County might see a good one or two.


To Note: At this hour, Central south of the front is about the LEAST favorable area for a storm as it is, but expect this potentially (or possibly) to be the most favored area later today, holding off to build up steam until later unless the current atmospheric conditions portrayed in the finer details do not change. Thus, South Central is a bit sketchy but will will ride with continuity of past model runs and ignore the short term model for the area near the front.  The inhibiting factor there could end up being a new influx of high clouds and stabilization from showers further to the west sending out debris clouds. Otherwise, today is just like all the others except toward South Florida that has not seen as much activity lately as has the region further north.


SATURDAY: Another version of the same old story. Could be that Central will get in on the rains early in the day, and that will be the end of the story there., at least for a portion of the day. Transitory day for sure as what remains of the boundary washes out near Central along Brevard County, but the western edge of the boundary begins to get wrapped northward up the west coast as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds becoming east to ESE in the afternoon, but weak steering could send a strong thunder 'eventually' back eastward South of Titusville to Miami later into the day or early evening. Otherwise, most storms tomorrow will occur west of I-95 with slow storm motions and still quite a few clouds elsewhere.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More changes. The main issue to watch will be for continued high clouds, as implications from two of the models show continued high moisture aloft (which does not always mean clouds given the depth of moisture portrayed in guidance). Most storms it appears though will be west of I-95 at least if not more so...but there is still discrepancies regarding just how much further west, especially up toward Daytona to JAX. Could be only the west 1/2 of the state will get wet for a few days into mid-week.


By Thursday and Friday so far much of the state could see the more afternoon variety thunderstorms heading toward the east coast by mid afternoon by then, as a mid - upper level trough sinks south into the central Gulf resulting in re-newed   east bound storm steering currents aloft.

Periodic Showers and Some Storms Through Friday

Radar around 8:15AM EDT shows activity moving from WSW to ENE already as anticipated. Two Fronts are seen here, with the southern one more of a surface trough as a reflection of what is going on aloft in the mid levels

TODAY: Captions capture the essence of today, with neither boundary moving much more than perhaps 20-30 miles one way or the other north/south. As such, would expect most of the rain to be near and in between those boundaries.


Latest short term trends show that south Florida is being dry slotted in the mid-levels simultaneously under extensive high clouds (moisture) and lower clouds. This would normally be a situation for strong storms if not for the high clouds (with the moisture present there and at low levels), but with little focusing mechanisms other than perhaps an afternoon sea breeze, would need to watch the east side toward Southern Palm Beach County through the Largo Area.


Otherwise, fairly close model agreement that the bulk of rainfall today will occur between the orange arrows.  There could be some stronger storms in the areas in Yellow, but those were more or less picked out on a mass-random whim based on periodic wind field surges depicted by so called, "guidance".

Any of these could 'go', and if so, most but not necessarily so would do it between 2pm -6:30pm.  The NE corner of the state in particular and East Central.  All in all, we could see a few severe warnings today, particular in that time frame last noted, with the primary threat being strong wind and frequent CG (cloud to ground) lightning, but the chance of a waterspout is not totally out of the question.


FRIDAY: The northern Frontal Boundary has been forecast to sink south toward Central where the current boundary exists. OR..it might just wash out and the southern one will become the one and only dominant player. Either way, all of Central to Tampa north and south 60 to 70 miles either side should be in the rain chance swath zone beginning early morning through sunset. Showers could occur over night as well, but very isolated.

BEYOND: Not a whole lot of change in reasoning other than one issue. Without going into naming models as that is irrelevant for posting purposes, they are split on what happens to the front on how far south it will get. This can be imagined because of the already new boundary near Central which might have thrown two of them off. Based on consistency and trends of the GFS though combined with the time of year, the  'new' front or what is left of it will sink a bit further south toward Vero Beach by overnight Friday night into Saturday. Wind behind the boundary will be light easterly north of its location but shallow, and possibly not strong enough to offset steering of showers and storms back eastward. The boundary will be , as it looks now tilted from near Cedar Key SW toward Ft Pierce area..with rains either side once again.  Saturday in Sunday looks like a shift in the timing issues, sticking closer to afternoon and night activity, but we'll have to wait and see. In this example though, it would be a sliver from North Brevard NNW toward Tallahassee that would have the least chance of rain.


 GREAT BEYOND: The trend has been for moisture to 'hang around', enough for rain in the forecast  the whole way out to next weekend at the rate we are going now. That does not mean all days will be as we have been seeing recently though. It will likely take on a different character of 'symptomatic flavor' from the atmospheric shift . 


Monday/Tuesday time frame could see heavier early to mid afternoon through evening storms nearly statewide, with less high level cloud cover to start the day. This will much depend though on what happens on Saturday into Sunday with the supposed positioning of the front which will wash out during that time frame.  Strange state of affairs going on this year as we enter the wet season by mid-June, considering the current pattern is unusual right now for what is oft referred to a small circles as the 'convective season'.


Before we know it, it could be time for a moisture surge from the Caribbean of different nature before this pattern even clears itself out come around 12-15th of June. Which would harbor a more wet-season like regime of afternoon and evening stormage just in time, but who would know the difference?

Another Day of If-Casting

Morning satellite imagery shows a mesoscale convective system (deep convection, organized ) maintaining itself for now over the Southeast Gulf as shown by red area. Latest ECMWF/NAM/RAP models all show the energy associated with the cluster to begin to lift ENE-NE day, and break apart. Any impacts from the wind energy should be, or could be Potentially (key word) most realized north 1/2 of state from early afternoon through late night tonight

TODAY: Will cut this post brief as noted by the subject line, way too many IFs involved to definitize or even rationalize where, when, or  how convection (storms) will initiate today. The two key areas would be associated with the remnants of an MCS over the Gulf as shown, and near East Central where greatest mid level Bulk shear has been continuously forecast to exist toward from just NE of Lake Okeechobee toward the area in Orange. Model guidance is all over the place on precipitation fields, as they weigh in on a different balance of weights and measures to determine the results, sort of like model politicking. Most seem to agree on little action just about anywhere truly to speak of in terms of the precipitation fields (rain) today, highlighting cloudy skies as a result.


Two severe warned storms over South to portions of South Central Florida might have worked over the atmosphere already before or near sunrise, with nothing but high clouds to follow. So that reasoning seems sound enough for now.


Otherwise, much less cloud cover north 1/2 of state, with east central portions playing the middle man . If so, storms (as opposed to patches of rain/showers) should not begin until at least noon time or so. The winds toward East Central might generate off and on light to moderate rain, or big storms. It is nearly impossible to say which if any. The combination of best instability though would normally justify making the north 1/2 claim, and that is where this post will rest today. Not to say activity cannot exist to the south either, hence the different color coded scheme.


BEYOND: We 'could' have another over night to early morning event over Central in the long run based on vorticity fields tonight toward sunrise, but timing again has no preference under a cloud sky regime for the most part, since most storms which will be isolated at best in any case. referring primarily to wind fields aloft and energy rather than purely surface based, normal summer thunderstorm (like) mechanisms. Chances in such manner continue into Friday, especially focusing more toward Central as a front boundary as shown above sinks into the area, eventually south yet further.


Impressions I'm getting from the latest ECMWF and GFS are that the western boundary portion of that foretold front might begin to lag, so that the front by Saturday extends from near Sebastian and NW ward toward Pensacola for another day or toward into Sunday if not early Monday. Thus, the shenanigans continue. By Tuesday it appears any activity will be restricted to the West half of the state as low level easterlies result from high pressure at the surface to lower levels builds eastward and offshore the Deep South region, but it is fairly shallow in vertical height. Even though weak steering might be eastward, do not believe any storms to form in that regime will actually make it very far and across the late afternoon sea breeze which will be well past Orlando by the time Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon time rolls around.

Best Chance of Thunder Today North of Vero on East Coast and Across I-10 Corridor

The 'Proverb'ial  Blog See Text is captured above, but there is caveates in the forecast given reasons cited in today's writing

TODAY: Plus factors, instability is mounting so far early afternoon across much of the state. Mainly all of Central- sufficient for strong storms, with colder air aloft and surface based instability up through the mid-levels. Best surface, mixed layer, and normalized convective instability (CAPE) is from near or just north of Vero Beach and north toward Ormond by the Sea.  Best upper level divergence so far is near New Smyrna South toward Vero. Not quite the overlap, but dead east central meets the cross hairs and fits the ticket price. 


Problems:  high clouds., undirectional wind directions and zero sea breeze , resulting in lack of a focusing mechanism for surface based initiation of storm.


Interesting though, the RAP model on the best site for getting into the finer details is DOWN..but earlier runs favored South Florida before sunrise. However, it appears things might have flipped flopped with the north half favored instead due to the continuance of high clouds cutting off the heat engine over the south. Moisture is greater in the South, but it is due to High level moisture more so than at the levels for storm bodies. Latest guidance in use for this post shows the best low and mid level moisture is Dead Central Dividing Line and north/south about 55 miles either way at least..with energy in the wind fields inter-dispersed hither and yon depending on what hour one prefers to utilize through sunset. Oops.


All things given, it would be negligent not to mention the possibility of strong thunderstorms (but isolated) in the areas noted, or close to them, in orange and red. These could start after 1pm through dark, off and on, with no apparent rhyme or reason other than that those already cited, favorable conditions, already exist; and the lifted condensation levels are low enough per the NAMcast for those stronger chances after 3:30pm. Could be big changes in short-term guidance as 2-3pm rolls around, so will go out on the fragile forecast limb and at least lay some cards out, just in case.


Otherwise, fast moving showers are spotty but have some gizmo already. There we have it already as I just looked for the first time. Showers appearing in the most unstable area. BUT, will high clouds put the lid on activity going into mid afternoon Xing out Central for storm chances? Only the Secret Eight Ball knows, the secret meaning.

WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: Back to square one, Sunday's Post. Chances again for storms. Earlier NAM and to some degree the GFS showed the best chances of rain Wednesday could befall from mid morning through late day, mainly Central zones and into the South..some strong. With a high cloud deck at night, some of the heat of the day will be retained, thus allowing for earlier shower and storm starts.  Beyond Wednesday and the vast number of variables involved between now and then through Friday..will need to cover each day on a case by case basis. Suspect future posts will retain this flavor though, with some bitters in there leaving the ever present question, " Will it or won't it do whatever or not on my parade?"

Heat and Rain Chance Potential Lowers Through Tuesday at Least

Noon time infrared image shows high clouds in grey slowly filtering across the state. They should remain fairly thin but thicken through Wednesday, and be most noticeable within one hour after sunrise and  before sunset

TODAY/TUESDAY: Heat could be on, but not as much so as fore warned. High clouds as mentioned yesterday could eventually begin to move in, and such is the case even sooner. Guidance indicates they will remain much if not all of the remaining work week once the high cloud producing machine gets started, and what better place to have it happen than upstream of the state. As such, although it will still be hot today in the lower to possibly mid 90Fs toward the east side of the state, it will not be as hot today as could have been, nor will it be on Tuesday.


Otherwise, westerly winds could pick up toward 20-25mph on Tuesday afternoon under the spurious high cloud shield , giving the sky a milky color and holding down the temperatures just a bit well away from the mid-upper 90Fs. Moisture will become more available, but even so there is not enough energy available nor any low level convergence boundaries present to get storms started except close to I-10 into the JAX area.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Frontal boundary draped west to east across the Deep South will be sinking southward today and tomorrow..and continue to do so as high pressure expands to its north. There does not appear there will be much in low level convergence ahead of the front nor on it except in the mid levels which may add to further increases in cloud cover with some showers; but if, when, how, or where any storms will form is another matter entirely. Therefore, at the present time it is a bit hard to probe into more detail at this time concerning later in the week on those issues. The consensus points to better rain chances come Wednesday evening through Friday with the front sinking south with time, but most of it appears to be stratified with a few thunders toward the west coast. Time will tell.


By next weekend winds should be easterly for quite some time, or at least a few days..and another big pattern change will be necessary to put the wheels in motion locally to make a break from the Easterly Syndrome. That change might come in the form of another moisture surge from the Western Caribbean toward the Southern Gulf, initially to the west of the state into the Louisiana/Mississippi/Southern Alabama area and perhaps the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. All in all, we COULD be seeing a fairly non-interesting pattern in play until mid- June.

Chances of Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday and Wednesdeay

In red is where strong storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday 

TODAY - MONDAY: NE winds coming in this afternoon to cool late  afternoon east coasters. We could see high streams of cirrus clouds all days next week from time to time, and they could be a player and reason for 'downsizing' future forecast posts to mostly cloudiness and light showers all areas except near I-10.  Future forecasts are showing dense cirrus off and on through next week beginning Wednesday or even Tuesday.  There is a small chance of showers along the east coast from Vero And South late in the day on Monday.


TUESDAY: Westerly winds, like Monday, prevail. Warm tomorrow (Monday) like today, but potentially warmer with highs approaching the mid-90Fs many areas especially the further east one gets. A frontal boundary will be draped across the lower SE states. The image above depicts the 'bulk shear' at 20,000 feet. On a summer day we have zero shear aloft under normal circumstances. Shear aids in lift and stronger storms. 


With that in mind, to compare, the GFS plots indicate not only shear will  reside aloft, but there will be a slight  bit all the way down to 2000 ft despite the predominantly WSW-W winds at the ground curving to WNW-NW aloft as can be seen above by the direct the wind barbs point. The temperatures aloft will be colder than on Friday when we had all of the rain as well. So, despite the chance of a lot of high clouds, wind shear and cold air aloft might be the predominant players/factor regardless. Small hair and strong to severe strength straight line winds in and near down pours appears would be the 'threat'.


The other school of thought though, per the NAM, is that the rain chances will remain near I-10, and areas to the south will see highs near 97F as has been relayed here for a few days now. The original train of thought several posts ago if we recall was mentioning  strong to severe storms in the Tuesday/ Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  It is too soon to say how far south the boundary will get, as the the ECMWF brings it much further south with 850mb vorticity streaming across North Central rather than further north. In that case, the strong storm threat would extend yet even further south by Wednesday. Much of the future posts will be weighted toward and through Friday, where a shift could occur, putting the storm and rain threat to an end. 

Queen of the Night Opens to a Near Full Moon. A one night stand.

But again, that is too far out in time to bother hypothesizing on other than that after up to 4 potential days of rainfall and storms, it has to eventually come to an end.  This additionally potential rain chance filled time frame should help put more of a dent in the winter dry period conditions. Brush fires were relatively very few and far between this fire season in the all in all.