Isolated Heavy Rainfall Totals/Gusty Winds In Storms Possible Today

Some stronger storms (red) are possible today with big rainfall totals due to slow storm motion and continues inflow feed from coastal sea breezes accompanied by high instability feed in CAPE and Lifted Indices under dry air in the mid levels

TODAY: Gradually evolving pattern taking shape as expected with the usual twists and turns along the way. "The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has cleared the area~!!"  pipes the trumpet, "all coasts clear". 


Meanwhile, gradually increasing moisture toward just below seasonal norms except South Florida today will result in more coverage of unsaid yet summer like storm activity as opposed to yesterday's "SW Floridians Only" storms and an isolated pocket near Marion/Lake County (for the most part).  Sea breeze convergence looks like a better bet today with a slant favoring the interior with outflows reaching toward I-95 or US1 very late toward dark. Thus, we could see some increased cloud coverage near the coast, especially north of 528 due to mid-level wind directions pushing cloud debris with no other impacts.


Otherwise, increased low level instability and 'forecast' cooler mid-level temperatures (the morning KSC sounding did not reflect these cooler temperatures, so it is a matter of trusting that they will 'advect' or move into the area in 'red' later today). Above the mid-levels, temperatures are cold enough to support a strong storm or so, if one considers -8C which is well below freezing, cold. A bit hard to imagine   air up there is so cold when it is 90F + at the ground. But, hot air rises, and the colder above that hot air it is, the faster it will rise. That , coupled with moist air which is  more buoyant (like steam), adds up to clouds and updraft columns, visible or not visible to the eye. They are only visible when clouds manifest and in time-lapse, except under a growing cloud base, referred to as 'cloud tags' .  Strongest storms after 5:00pm mainly from near the Osceola County line up toward Orlando / Narcossee (maybe), Kissimmee, and much of Polk County as well as further to the SSW where deeper moisture will advect in as the day wears on.


As this activity collapses under its own weight due to slow storm motions, outflows (quite gusty due to cold air falling) could extend well past the west coast and near I-95 or US1 on the east coast with little effect other than some clouds. With heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and BB sized hail potentially in an isolated momentary up-burst collapse well in the interior , the immediate beach-goer will remain ignorant to all this occurring in the   after 6pm while innocently tipping the toes in the cool ocean waters behind one's back to the west while considering a sea shell.  


SUNDAY: Discrepancy being resolved, but still not quite, as models disagree on how far north moisture will get on the east side of the state as opposed to wrapping south of Lake Okeechobee and up the west side. It's looking more like the rain producing qualifiers will remain from Indian River County and South and work toward the inland and west coast area toward Cedar Key or Brooksville, with the rest of the east remaining dry.


MONDAY: The plot thickens. Will the moisture  in a secondary surge slap a an atmospheric moisture wave ashore further north  ...or is it Professor Plum, in the library, with the candlestick ? Implications are the former will be the case, but with thunder activity inland mainly South Central and South, not too far off from today...will have to investigate this with a magnifying glass more as we work toward tonight and Sunday.

Remote Chance of a Near Severe Storm Today

"Storm to the West" - 7:30pm Thursday near the Marinas at Port Canaveral

Yesterday a few strong storm  reports came in from activity near Bithlo in Orange County   near Wedgefield and Bithlo and toward the ENE. Much activity that was also likely strong occurred over uninhabited swamp like land, ; one report of small hail also came in. The activity hit the east coast sea breeze west of I95, but managed to progress east toward the coast in North Brevard. Other weaker activity occurred further north earlier near DAB and the Titusville area toward Mims had two shots at rain. A severe report came in that limbs 'the size of a wrist' were broken, but specifics as to whether that was a newborn's wrist or a Sumi Wrestles remains sketchy...the search is on.

 The outflow gust front feature progressed toward Cape Canaveral  and Cocoa Beach.

TODAY: As expected, dry air O-rama in the mid-levels and warm to hot inland in the absence of more clouds and light inland winds. There is not a shortage of low level moisture though with an inversion above ground low enough to preclude formation of big cumulus clouds until later and in-land. SO 'going out a limb' (the size of a wrist) there is a small chance of a storm very late near Lake County as a result of a sea breeze collision which would mount up low level moisture and because low and mid-level lapse rates would be pretty darned strong, it could be near-severe. Any upward momentum that could escalate a storm to the upper levels could end up being fairly impressive but of short life span due to slow storm motion. Any said such event though is highly conditional on other numerous factors.   I see model guidance painting green brush strokes all around Tampa Bay, but given the current tested atmospheric conditions via morning sounding data, would think that either something goes BOOM in a big way, or barely ekes out a drop of rain at all.

SATURDAY: Slightly more coverage of activity tomorrow near I-4 and toward the interior or western interior down to SW Florida and the Glades, as moisture increases and remnant haze clears out.


SUNDAY: Different day entirely. Latest guidance is a bit askew concerning when deeper moisture will work north beyond South Florida. Southerners  might be seeing showers south of the Lake before 10AM if not at sunrise, with activity progressing north through mid morning and early afternoon. Whether or not the immediate east coast north of Indian River County gets wet is even sketchier with model timing differences as big as a full 12 hours. Thus, Sunday afternoon at the beach north of Vero or Ft. Pierce might not be all so bad after-all, with the better chance of rain not arriving until after dark.


MONDAY: Pretty good chances of showers and storms almost state wide with the east side seeing activity with some lightning just about any time beyond 1PM in the afternoon, Hard to say for sure.


BEYOND: Another slot of SAL might come in taking rain chances down to isolated Tuesday through Friday.

Chance of an Isolated Strong Storm Late Today near the Coast

Albeit sketchy at this time of 9AM....

TODAY: As expected, dry and elevated dusty air is moving into South Florida courtesy of Africa. Expect glared skies with filtered hot and humid air there today. Low level moisture is still quite plentiful though, so expect it will be very humid and hot over all of South Florida especially away from the coasts as far north as a line running from Ft. Pierce to Port Charlotte, but some low cumulus clouds will provide temporary respite.  Further north, the ridge axis (of high pressure) is forecast to remain far enough south that chances of quick showers are possible in green. Latest guidance in one model shows storms possible toward the SW coast (however). 


**Side note, yesterday wind gusts were measure in the 40-51mph associated with the storm/storms over North Brevard from Canaveral toward the Barge Canal.


Otherwise, extensive cloud cover is over the North half of the state so not really looking for significant storm activity north of I-4 today. Further south, low level instability as a result of that buoyant low level moist air under the dry mid and upper level air will mount and advect toward Central Florida during the day. At time, higher clouds are streaming across Central from the Northeast, but so far those are expected to dissipate by early-mid afternoon. Those will hold temperatures down a tad, but nonetheless, the invisible instability will be present as the day wears on. 


Winds are expected to become side shore or nearly so from Sebastian Inlet and north up the intra-coastals to a bit more onshore north of Melbourne Beach due to the curvature of the cape.  Steering today remains from the WSW at about 15-20 mph.


Any showers or storms that form north could send outflows south into the more unstable air mass which has less moisture content. Thus,any activity today will require the west coast sea breeze to progress 'silently ' eastward accompanied by those winds and into self created moisture convergence at the low levels along the east side of the state. This convergence along with instability advected north from South Florida and better vertical upward velocities (lifting convective motions) and coastal low level vorticity and some helicity could provide enough lift for a few thunderstorms, possibly strong with wind gusts in the 40-50mph north of SR 528 and South of New Smyrna Beach. Would expect little advance warning of any said potential activity (potential being the operative word), as storms could quickly escalate upward upon cross I-95 give or take a few miles. Winds, if such storm could manifest could outflow toward the Port to Melbourne beach regardless if it rains or not and be briefly gusty as well.


Due note, much of what happens late today is contingent upon dissipation of the high clouds in this same area  colored in the more vibrant color schemes through the north central portion of the state. For now, dispelling the SW coastal area near Ft. Meyers beyond low topped showers. 


FRIDAY: Dry ribbon to lift north to Central with South Florida already beginning to recover. Storms possible the west half of the state south of Lake Okeechobee in general and north Florida.


SATURDAY: Dry ribbon begins to fill in, with what appears will evolve into a chance of isolated activity near I-4 late day and toward the interior as moisture increases from South to North. This , so far, appears will be the better of the two day weekend for outdoor/beach related activities


SUNDAY:  Increasing S-SSE flow to advect a moisture surge northward with showers and thunder working up the coast and interior by late morning, possibly starting out South Florida in the early early day.
Or, perhaps this will be more cloud cover than shower activity. Either way, without much sun or much less of it by noon time or so..not such a great day for the beach appears to be the verdict...at least as of now based on model consistency for 2 solid days.


BEYOND: One more dry time into early next week then the GFS insists now (and has been for a week) for a trough to eventually develop a trough running down the east coast along and east of the Appalachians with the gall to eventually drop a front into Central Florida by late next weekend or so, but given the time of year if even so this were to come to fruition in some form, it might make it toward I-10 or I-4 if this , in fact, evolves at all. Hard to be certain, but any high pressure building south from SE Canada ..opens up all kinds of options in what so far has been an atypical summer nation wide.  

Thunder Likely in "Pockets" Today, Especially East Side

Weak Thunderstorm Hovering into Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

TODAY: Short post today due to time constraints. Upper low that was near JAX yesterday lifting NW into Central Georgia as mid level trough that was across North Central weakens and lifts north. High pressure ridge beginning to build into South Florida will result between those two in stronger WSW to ENE steering today holding off sea- breezes north of Sebastian except toward the immediate barrier islands as winds at 2000 ft are two strong for much more than a shallow boundary.


Further south, Lake Breezes along the North side of the Lake and the better chance of the sea breeze east of it could enhanced convergence and storms especially since latest guidance shows much stronger instability being advected into this area off the Atlantic.

Showers with thunder already moving in on the west coast. What effect this will have on locations along and north of I-4 is unknown. An outflow boundary is already noted ahead of these storms showers which will move toward the WNW-NW through the late morning hours into the early afternoon. Convergence might be enhanced over the east 1/2 of the state as heating commenced, but then again, so might cloud cover there.

South of I-4 is where the better likelihood of an semblance of a sea-breeze is possible near the coast but further in from the coast over SE Florida. There is some cloud cover in this area this morning but it is moving around a bit and might dissolve itself by noon time.


THURSDAY: SAL air mass impinges into South Florida by late day and might deter activity most of south Florida but Central and North will not be fazed. Activity will be a bit more isolated Thursday and Friday as the dry air mass lifts north across Central by late Friday or Saturday and further north on Sunday, as activity resumes over South Florida by Saturday and more areas on Monday as it shrinks in size. In short, Central looks pretty dry on Saturday but more active Sunday and Monday.

TUESDAY, Cape Canaveral

BEYOND: Another SAL surge is seen to move in to the state by early next week toward mid-week which will be the next bone of contention.

New Theme, Better Thunder Chance Today?

Two (red) Upper lows remain in place. The one near JAX is expected to lift NW today slowly while the dashed lavender line denotes a mid-level trough axis which will move very little throughout the day. Note the dry, hazy air mass approaching South Florida forecast to arrive toward Thursday/Friday and then lift north across Central on Saturday

TODAY: Hard to say exactly , for sure, definitively, or even probably what will happen when and where today as showers already forming over Western South Central portions creeping NE (but  very weak).  Guidance is pointing toward a slightly better low level instability today, but lifted indices (a measure of instability) could be the clincher, as they have been pretty low the past two days.  One severe warning was issued very late day in Marion County along a west coast sea breeze type interaction.  Otherwise, do expect a shallow east coast sea breeze to form today with a more rapid acceleration of the west coast sea breeze, especially south of Brookesville and south into the interior regions. A late day collision near I-95 is possible which could be the harbinger of stronger storms as noted in red-below.


SOUTH FLORIDA: Problem is activity off the SW Coast. If upper level winds advect cloudiness across this area the rain chances shut down entirely. On the other hand, they could get started early enough and/or those clouds could abate later today, so not to count that area out.


CENTRAL: Better instability is forecast to work in from the NW today across all of North and North Central toward Brevard.  Activity to the north will move very little under and north of the trough axis whereas activity south of it could meet the near coast sea breeze with greater low level forcing. Thus the red line for possibly stronger than expected pulse like and short lived activity, although that of the sort could occur almost any where after 4pm through 7pm. Expect again the first true activity like yesterday to begin to manifest shortly after noon time Central Portions and South., as further north this area is much too stable this hour.


NORTH: Could be yet stronger activity at least the west half of the panhandle region moving offshore. Winds here are a tad stronger, but really, the coolest mid-level temperature 'forecast' is along that 'orange' trough, thus, a secondary reason to at least consider better chances of thunder as opposed to rain showers, especially after 4pm, cloud cover permitting.

BEYOND: More chances of thunder on Wednesday many areas but chances dwindle toward Thursday through Saturday in various areas as the drier air moves in.  By Sunday the drier air might be all but cleared the state with a resumption of storms a bit inland from the east coast for a day or two.

Wide Spread Convective Showers, Some Thunder Thrown in, Isolated Strong Possible

Graphic shows the mid levels, with two lows in the upper levels. The low over Florida is forecast for this afternoon in the mid levels and should be the primary monitoring area for more robust activity today

TODAY: Pattern continues to morph with our two upper lows slowly working Westward to WNW. A mid level trough will work north to central and north central today and come more aligned with the trough at 20,000-30,000 feet aloft. Weak sea breeze along to east of US1 possible north of West Palm mainly to have any real effects - not, with the mid level cold pool  nearest the low.  Little in low level forcing due to lack of a solid sea breeze collision is a possible downfall, and clouds over the Big Lake of Okeechobee should preclude any meaningful Lake/Sea breeze collision effects given the late time of morning already with no apparent signs of clearing as of yet. Should this region clear by early afternoon, that throws a new wrench into the equation.


For now, any strong storms could be from North Brevard and north toward Flagler County just in from the coast into the interiors, with outflows working south and east and west and every which way. Southwest winds in the mid-levels will steer activity off shore south of West Palm but further north the currents will be too light toward south of DAB (Daytona). There is no steering north of Mims in general and only a drift between that area south to Sebastian by later this afternoon toward the coast. Problem is, activity might get started soon enough that by later today the atmosphere will be worked over which makes further discussion a moot point, but would watch that low pressure area primarily due to some potential vorticity aloft acting as the primary triggering mechanism for actual thunderstorm activity. Winds aloft are very light, so any stronger to even severe storms will be pulse and brief.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: New pattern altogether as the northern upper level low shown east of JAX drifts WNW and gets absorbed into the mainstream synoptic scale flow. Steering SW to NE with greater low level instability means early start to showers and storms almost statewide.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY; Drier air aloft works toward South Florida first then begins to lift north in a  fairly narrow band making late Friday into the Weekend conditional in regard to where storms will exist, with a resumption to more moisture at all levels by Monday (next week) and more SW Flow aloft. In short, typical atmospheric moisture availability will be in play other than late week into the weekend with the atypical diurnal variations typical of outflow west coast sea breeze and lake breeze interactions. Did we just say atypical is typical? ! As usual, some stronger storms are possible on any summer day, so that is not unusual...typically. 

Rough guestimate for starters with red being maybe some stronger activity. Could see some funnel clouds today...there is some gradual clearing toward Ft Pierce, so late day activity could occur in this region. It is left, 'unmarked' due to the abundant unsuitable  at this time situation over far South Central Florida today.

  
 

Pattern Metamorphosis To Begin Compiling Today

Preliminary Estimation of best rain chances today

TODAY: Image minus the colors is actual to the best available information location of upper level lows discussed yesterday. The eastern and more northern one did begin a more northerly motion which left the peninsula much more dry that would have been otherwise (possibly). 


Early Today guidance is coming into better agreement though and seems to be changing in the short-term model with every subsequent out put like a compiling computer program trying to reach a point of completion. But it will be never-ending for several days here on out. 


Chances are, after morning sounding data is taken and extrapolated and fed into that model things will change again, but even more so tonight and tomorrow as that trough finally pulls into station. Hopes are that by the end of the day we won't be crying "Wolf!", as this post is a bit 'ad hoc' for all intensive and extensive purposes.  Upper lows to drift west today taking the shown trough located in the upper levels with it and across Florida. There are adjustments in the lower levels as well though, with our easterly winds becoming more SE to SSE mid to late day, and steering becoming more southerly to SSW  south of Lake Okeechobee especially after 5pm as far north as northern South Central (South of the Beachline Magic Dividing Line zone).  Better lapse rates for thunderstorm generation will materialize from SSE toward the NNW during the day beginning mid-late morning spreading to South Central zones by 5pm or 6pm.  Sea breeze convergence, rather lack there off north of Lake Okeechobee, is a mitigating factor pretty much everywhere except perhaps earlier to mid-afternoon activity that might get going near the Lake breeze interactions.


Further north, storms 'could' work north both with and ahead of the trough (s) due to propagating outflows meeting the previously already established east coast sea breeze. A late day collision of sorts could occur over Polk County  or west toward Tampa, but the better instability will remain along the eastern half of the state nearer the trough axis and better lapse rates above,  and most of far Southwest Florida . Since this is a big transition day as highlighted previously, especially toward dark, some activity could continue post-sunset - post dark toward NW Florida whereas other areas might get worked over or in general no longer remain favorable for storms, not to say isolated activity could not re-occur, especially South Florida.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: The pattern shift reaches near completion almost never, as the trough continues to move west and into the Gulf pulling moisture northward on its backside. In general though, light SW to NE steering develops by Monday afternoon through the remainder of the week, while the TUTT SAL SALT AIR MASS continues west , now already having infiltrated the Puerto Rico area. Latest guidance has slimmed down a bit on the impacts overall to the state of that air-mass, except toward and south of Lake Okeechobee.  


On the other-hand, lapse rates and surprisingly the GFS shows this,   will supposedly become more favorably supportive of strong to severe storms, albeit quite, quite isolated. Tuesday and especially Wednesday shine through on the GFS, as it rarely shows high degrees of instability over Florida, let alone 4 days in advance.  Central Florida overall seems to be the location for such activity on Tuesday and Wednesday, but no one area will be immune from rain chances through Tuesday or even Wednesday, with activity likely starting out in most robust fashion along the Lake/Sea breeze zone of Northern Palm Beach/Martin/St Lucie/Indian River Counties working northward up a delayed sea breeze.  


It will become quite summer like (as if...), humid, and hot for the beach folks given the delayed sea breeze anticipated. In short, this pattern is a bit rare for this time of year over South and Central Florida, so we can expect the unexpected for a few days here and there and just about anywhere. 

Out On a Limb-cast Leaves Options Open this Afternoon

Friday morning at 9AM Shower passing over North Cocoa Beach  

TODAY: Model discrepancy runs rampant from model run to model run and between models in regard to today, and not so coincidentally is not matching up with latest satellite animation trends.


Thus, for the more rain prone (but apparently less likely wetchancecast per latest water-vapor and satellite animation) an upper level with a weak surface reflection well east of Florida and NE of the Bahamas is rolling W-WNW with increased moisture and much larger shower and likely thunder activity with it. Comparatively speaking, small showers on local radars are showing mainly South Central and south that look like mere specks on satellite as we will see below compared what is well off to the east at this time.


 Based on timing via animations, it appears the leading edge of deeper 700 millibar (mb) moisture (near 10,000 feet or so up in the atmosphere) will reach the east coast after 2pm which could mean a much better chance of showers in the zones noted below. On the other hand, should the NAM and not so much the RAP model verify, the moisture will only get so far west before slowing down,   not coming within the bounds of the beaches until at least as late as midnight toward 7AM Sunday. That is a BIG difference . Thus, for a east coast wet-cast, showers could be on the increase by mid-afternoon. On the other-hand, we might be able to hold off until sometime well after dark.


Otherwise, the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will be from Tampa and South within 30 miles of the west coast, with strongest activity downstream of Lake Okeechobee under the largely east to west flow aloft.  The tides and times change though later tonight as the trough aloft and the mid-level winds shift as it impinges toward the state, as does the steering currents.

Two lows, mainly upper to mid levels shown above with a trough in dashed red connecting them. The yellow lines are showing the leading edge of the moisture 'fiends' ahead of them. Timing if nothing were to change in direction of the leading edge of the moisture fields places them at the beaches by mid-afternoon. However, should the more northern low start to lift more toward the NW and open up, it will be delayed significantly. Stronger storms could be in the 'red zone'

SUNDAY: More complications will very likely abound. So far, guidance is painting a wet picture for all of east central working west during the day along with continually veering winds aloft toward the south from the previous easterly direction of today and early this evening. That means transitions over night and tomorrow abound, with ample moisture. Would not be surprised for some 'bust-casts' unless rain chances for Central and South almost anywhere are put in the forecasts tonight concerning the expectant outcomes of this current pattern. 


With much lighter winds by tomorrow though, would not be surprised that some funnel clouds could not form as showers approach the east coast anytime after 7AM to early afternoon in heavier showers which could continue thunder as well. Tomorrow is a big mess really, and rain chances to not appear will necessarily be restricted from any particular areas of the peninsula as winds continue to veer , especially by early evening. East 'Centrallers' could receive rain more than once from early day activity and then again toward or shortly after dark during the pattern shift.


MONDAY/WEDNESDAY: Steering pattern shift as has been noted now for several posts, with activity taking an eastward rather than westward drift during the day. Although steering will be slow it will be nonetheless toward the east with a weak and possibly slightly delayed east coast sea-breeze. By later Wednesday dry air associated with a TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropispheric Trough) and Saharan Air Layer easily discernible in specialized satellite imagery approaches from the east. Problems arise in regard to storm coverage during this time frame since it is too far out in time to determine how extensive and deep the dry air will be as well as where and how it will be located across the state Thursday-Saturday. It does not appear so far that all areas will be excluded from receiving rainfall, but it is simply to discern where the dry air will be exactly. Yes, we can go by what models are showing now but it is too soon to say with a high degree of certainty other than it appears the Southern 1/3 of the state will be most affected during the time frame as it stands today. 

"Salty Dusty SAL"

Another day for Good Rain Chances Central and North

Threatening Storm Clouds Approaching Cape Canaveral
 from the SSE Tuesday Afternoon  

TODAY: Persistence in thinking might be the best rule of thumb today despite most model guidance; however, there is a fly in the ointment if the short term Rapid Refresh (formally Rapid Update Cycle model), is hitting on something correctly. As sup-positioned, early rains occurred "somewhere along the east coast south of Daytona Beach" prior to sunrise in the form of a thunderstorm across North Central Brevard County and a bit to the west as it slid ashore, peaking up as the weak wind fields converged along the land/coast.

This radar image was saved at 5:10AM. During the rains (which are lightly falling still as of 7:35AM) dropped over one inch of rain accompanied by in-cloud (IC) lightning.  This area appears to have formed as a result in part due to a weak low pressure area manifesting in the 2000-5000 ft level above ground (AGL)  which showed up nicely in infrared satellite imagery and an accompanying boundary (shown further below). The area appears per satellite animation and supposedly per model guidance (at least) to be moving toward the WNW-W and will continue to do so only slowly the remainder of the day. The NAM might be hyper-reacting to this low by its implication of a much stronger mid-level low forming along the west coast later today. For now, will rest with the GFS which implies a drift toward the WNW but no change in strength. Another low also resides of similar nature off the west coast a good 120NM offshore.  Much of south Florida appears to be blanketed in mainly lower clouds this morning, and whether those clouds will remain or not with such high precipitable water values in place remains a flat out mystery. Most guidance indicates a slow burn off and thus little to no rain in the region south of the Lake today. However, the other opt out is that the moisture going into those clouds begins to lift and transform directly back into more clouds of the rain and thunder producing variety. For now, will opt out on that scenario since mid level winds over the South are forecast to shift from a more westerly direction solution  ..perhaps resulting in only more clouds. Too hard to say.

Two images depict the approaching storm cluster yesterday. Image 1 is clearly from a more distant perspective

 
Today's First Guess, not likely accurate.

Image shows location of the two low pressure areas, both are a bit 'elevated' and weak so far. Thunder central and North interior.

Running with short term guidance and extrapolated analysis data, it appears a good feed of sufficient moisture and instability is poised toward the region off near West Palm and north to Southern Volusia County. With little change in low to mid level winds, would expect a break in activity until temperatures can reach Convective Temperature which would not be until early into mid- afternoon (in support of thunderstorms). South Florida might end up receiving debris clouds from activity off of the SW coast as light west winds take part in the mid-levels (assuming they do).  


Therefore, for this post and without trying to read too much more into an already problematic situation, have left this area out until very late toward or after dark (yellow) for rainfall. Coverage of storms might very well end up mainly near and west of I-95 in the Central region, but given that sea breezes will be weak cannot count out the barriers 'just in case'.  One or two strong storms could occur near the Brooksville area into Lake County it appears, maybe even Osceola, with that region to the north also  in question. Looks more like a standard late day sea breeze collision set up for that region, but if the mid level circulation strengthens...it would be even sooner (if at all) .


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Although forecast discussions refer to some drying over the weekend, I'm not changing previous thinking, for rebel's sake. East coast could still see isolated activity (especially Friday from JAX to Boyton) sometime between 11am toward 3pm. Guidance has indicated an 'open disturbance ' or trough to wash ashore accompanied by low level convergence and higher PWAT sometime on Friday, but there is big timing differences with the GFS holding off until mid-afternoon. This will make all the difference in the world for the east coast for sure, but more so the west coast. If it holds off until late, the west coast might not see as much rain tomorrow as expected (which as of this hour at a very good chance threshold). Otherwise, continued mostly to partly cloudy skies all regions.


Saturday and Sunday and even into Monday is a very slow transitional process period with little change in thinking. Early east coast and later West Coast rain/storm chances, except Monday is going to have to be 'let's wait and see'. Transitional periods can be accompanied by a periodic dry spell in the pattern shift as parameters and moisture fields get realigned. Better chances of rain many areas appears to be in the cards on Tuesday.

Green Seas and Dark Skies wash ashore in Cape Canaveral Storm

Early Onset of Showers/Storms Right on Schedule

TODAY: Although not 'exactly' as depicted per models and far from exact for South Florida this morning, increased moisture is making its opening act today to the state. To clarify, South Florida had numerous thunderstorms over land and much more so off shore as can be seen above by the transition of that cluster northward in the past 6 hours. The activity really was not anticipated to such extent based on the forecast discussions I read just two hours before it commenced. Big model 'fail'.  Storms for the Brevard Barriers might be done for the day already,  as steering is toward the NNW and away from the beaches.  Short term model indicates more activity to make head way on to the beaches later today,  but just in case there is a "Plan B", it would be titled "Watch Out Far East Central after 1pm".  And if so, funnel clouds or even a waterspout is possible.   "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises"  (just in case).


BEYOND: Similar timing difficulties will run the gamut for the east coast south of Daytona through Sunday in the hours from sunrise prior to late morning before activity steers toward the interior and eventually west side of the state. Timing close to impossible to forecast due to lack of data forecast points where land observations are close to non-existent for model purposes to the east, with guidance seemingly consisting of largely 'rough guess-timates' as opposed to actuals'.


TRANSITION DAY SOMETIME MONDAY: So far, consistency is pointing toward an over-haul in the wind fields which will gently glide activity toward the NE early next week as opposed to the WNW-W as will be the case by this weekend.  Thus, from Monday or Tuesday on the same sort of scenario could evolve except activity and timing is reverted from west to east rather than from east to west as will be case the remainder of the week. Overall, East Coasters should be on the watch for rain early morning through noon time every day. 

ON this DAY last year (Cape Canaveral, FL)

Pattern Shift Continues - In full Swing Wednesday

Developing Thunderstorm on Monday Southeast of  Orlando along the County Line. Lightning was coming down in the Clear Area (center of image)

TODAY: Not much change in thinking/reasoning from yesterday's post. Today will be a bit of blend from "'what was yesterday' vs.  'what will be tomorrow'" as moisture increases from the SSE direction.


Expect some showers to first form along the SE Section of the state near the coast and to work northward up the East Coast sea-breeze with other showers forming between I-95 and US1 East Central early afternoon along Brevard. Outflows toward the west and NW along with a prevalent, but very light SSE layer flow from the surface to 15,000 ft will work boundaries toward the west coast with activity becoming stronger the further west (and later in the day) that it spreads. Strongest storms could occur in red as noted..but those areas are more  mainly depicted to show how renegade/random and difficult to pin-point rather than exact locations those storms will be. Best chances are that strongest storms will be very late toward the west coast with a stronger interior one possible where outflows from earlier activity meet larger inland lake breezes by total happen-chance with the main issue being timing.

WEDNESDAY: Relative to today, Wednesday is tomorrow where moisture will have increased by over 1/2" in the Precipitable water fields. Greater coverage, with some possibly tweaking the east coast barrier islands anytime from noon on  - working south to north as far as North Brevard. Wide coverage with earlier onset all areas (early-mid afternoon) and dying off by dark as the atmosphere gets worked over. This might be the east coast's best rain chance day (meaning barrier islands and the A1A strip down to West Palm Beach).


THURSDAY-SATURDAY: This three-day epilogue of days appears fairly similar with minor variations each day. Watching for early day activity along the east coast intracoastals transitioning inland and to the west as the days go by. With good coverage  justifying a 50-60% chance of rain (on TV News Channels that are inland, of course). For the coast (East) chances more like 35% for total coastal coverage (at best).


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Transition period toward activity shifting more toward the east side, although moisture in the atmosphere by then might be less available for Tuesday complete pattern shift. Too soon to say for sure.

Downburst of rain might have caused some folks gusty winds for a period nearby yesterday. Moments before this was shot there was no rain falling from this developing thunderstorm, although several lightning strikes did occur BEFORE the rain current became truly visible.

 

Pattern Change Beginning Today -Notable Tuesday

  Humidity Levels To Increase,
Along With Rain Chances Tuesday through Saturday 

TODAY: Although only minor changes at play today, the shift from what I've noticed year after year in the summer of the "two to three day pattern phase" is drawing nigh  to a new phase.  High pressure in the mid-levels across Central is slowly collapsing, at least in weakening of the wind fields and shifting/shrinking of the dry socket across Central.  Across the far South, a weak tropical wave (northern portions of it) accompanied by an upper level low is drifting west into the SE Gulf Today, which will permit deeper moisture to work slowly northward into or toward Ft Pierce to Vero on its back circulation.


 With weak steering once again, late day sea breeze interactions will make that moisture 'apparent" especially mid-afternoon north of Lake Okeechobee toward or west of those areas inland into Osceola County. Little change is noted further north from the past two days, although it is a bit sketchy on exactly where or even how the moisture distribution will be situated for late afternoon thunderstorm activity. That is relative to whether or not storms will exist in toward Western Volusia and up the Suwanee River Valley basin or not. For now we will include that area.


Overall, it appears that from late morning toward early evening the total  area of isolated shower and storm activity will be within these bounds (below).


With a pattern change, albeit subtle, comes question marks , the main one being will we go from isolated coverage of activity to a period of scattered coverage today? Far South to Southwest Florida appears to be the most likely location for said activity. Was tempted to shift the thunder chance a bit more toward the east across Orange and Osceola Counties  (from this noted below), but about the only impacts will be for those in the downtown toward and east of that Orlando zone, since in Osceola County that area is low-low populace that would be affected.

Last night there was one storm in the Orlando area (Dr. Phillips) which produced 3/4' to 1" sized hail, with winds that uprooted some apparently old, root rotted trees.  This location looks again to be a good candidate for a big one today (if not a bit east toward the immediate downtown area), as well as northward toward 'anywhere Lake County' and western Volusia (along I-4).  There could be a brief period of showers along the sea breeze front south or near Brevard along I-95, but it appears moisture will remain too scant for anything more than a shower along that boundary.  


TUESDAY/SATURDAY: The upper level low will move further into the Gulf, with moisture being drawn northward behind it with a light SSE-S surface to upper level flow for slow storm motions continuing. With higher dewpoint air now lurking off to the East of the state just beginning to show up, chances are storm/shower activity on Tuesday will begin earlier to the Southern Part and work north to Central by early afternoon.  Some guidance has been very consistent with a good coverage from South of or right near Melbourne right along or near the east coast, particularly toward Palm Bay / offshore/ and to the west down to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all surrounding areas with the lead moisture surge now fully at hand. 


Tuesday seems to be the odd man out though. From that point, would expect we will see cloud lines up along the intracoastals by mid-morning along with showers evolving in those areas along with some showers off shore that could move onshore south of Ft Pierce.  With the sea breezes full blown thunderstorm activity will increase by mid afternoon and work its way slowly toward the West to West North West with heaviest activity after 4:30pm just west of Orlando  toward Route 27 for areas like Clermont and Bok Tower. Route 27 looks to be a good candidate for several afternoons of big storm coverage, with isolated to scattered stronger storms from East of Cedar Key the whole way south to east of Ft. Meyers.  


Other moisture  surges very difficult to impossible to forecast this far out, could impact the immediate east coasters with showers beginning near sunrise from Brevard South. Point is, with greater moisture and earlier onset of activity, temperatures will be held down a bit (most notably inland) during the days, but the relative humidity will be increasing as well.


BEYOND: Hints that yet another pattern (major) change will be at play with activity shifting for a period toward the East Half of the state for the late afternoons come this time next week.  In line with that note and speak of patterns, do suspect each day beginning tomorrow through Friday will have its own little surprise packages in store, including the chance of weak waterspouts near to just offshore the east coast early in the day and/or some funnel clouds along intracoastal cloud lines from Brevard to Miami.

Better Chance of Inland Storm Coverage Today

Granted, it comes down to some guess work. Better chances for
storms appears in the making after 4pm through 8pm Interior Central Florida. One or two could be stronger than' normal',  meaning they will actual Thunder-Storms (TS to TS+)) but should any storm be warned, it might be hard to verify. Most will be TS- .

 TODAY: Mid-upper level trough has pressed off the mid-Atlantic Coast overnight with a surface through the mid-levels low center and trough extending SSW toward South Carolina. As a result, the surface to mid-level troughs have both shifted south over Florida toward the northern side of the "Big Lake Down South".


Although the winds aloft hold little bearing on the overall outcome on where any storms will form and more importantly head toward either way since they are less than 10mph ,   the east coast sea breeze could be delayed about an hour, for warm to hot early afternoon temperature readings toward the beaches.  Otherwise, per latest analysis/forecast via short term guidance, although atmospheric moisture (PWAT or precipitable water) is not any greater than the past two days, it appears the distribution of it is more aligned for cloud and storm bearing type of weather rather than being thinly distributed throughout the boundary layer, or weather bearing birth place for clouds and storms, as was the case yesterday. 


Given though, it is hardly up toward seasonal norms to warrant scattered storms in a general forecast by late afternoon there could be a few at one time over Central toward South Central with little motion other than oblong motion along boundary propagation as a result of lake breezes and the sea breezes from each coast.


South Florida has an issue. High clouds are swiping over head from Central earlier today and might offset in part convective initiation in this region until a bit later than model guidance portrays. Likewise toward the north, another factor could offset true storm formation, especially west of Ormond beach or perhaps even Daytona until near or after dark, likely due to some subsidence in the wake of early day convection over the Panhandle Region (outflows).


 All in all, today appears to be getting off to a slower start than yesterday over South Florida, and chances are that during peak heating ..moisture distribution will be thrown out of whack (for the most part) during uncapped evaporation phase for much in the thunder zone except toward Lake Okeechobee region, with the majority of storm formation abiding until post - 4:30pm - haste.  Given the latter time of day, with sea breezes having thus by then formed, true storms might be a bit hard to come by, but they will appear nonetheless. Candidate areas appear to be again Lake County toward Seminole, parts of Polk and Osceola and a bit westward from those locales. Showers might be able to form along the east coast sea breeze as well toward I-95/US-1 but very isolated at best by mid-afternoon. More than likely, after early showerage (if any) there will be a lull until the appointed time.


WEEKEND: Most activity over the weekend appears will be along I-4 toward North of I-4,. This puts Ocala toward Gainesville in the mix and south toward north Orange and west Volusia. A dry slot appears to be in the making for dead Central with a much weakened  pseudo-tropical wave putting a dab of paint on the far south for a part of the weekend, meaning chances of showers and thunder (especially SW Florida).


East coast beach goers should have no problems getting sunburned, and hopefully not forecast burned, moon burned, or for the altogether adversarial of sun and moon burn, TV burned.  Can always watch The Weather Channel.

Storm Chances Invariably Variable Through Saturday

The Images Above Wraps Up Today...Typical Summer Like Day in Store!

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Summer time conundrums prevail as a hail of invariably variable variables reigns.


Model guidance is hither and yon on exactly where the best chances will be today for storms, but when push comes to shove, it won't really matter any hoot if trying to pin point down to specifics. There is ample moisture and close to nil steering currents (and it gets more so later in the week). In short, storms will move little and manifest along sea-lake breezes and eventually boundaries created by they themselves. 


Best chance of a genuine storm may at first be toward FAR South Florida , the Panhandle, and  toward the NE-SE shores of Lake Okeechobee. There could be a brief lull in activity before leap frogging toward 5:30 - 6:00pm when some stronger activity might reside from near Altamonte Springs, North Orlando side southward into Osceola County. Models really are all over the place with the rain/precipitation field parameters in their graphical depictions, but the NAM of all things seems to have picked up on the dry slot in the mid levels running across a portion of South Central north of Lake Okeechobee, at least for the interim.  The strongest of storms could end up where any boundaries meet along the edge  of that temporary dry area. It is there visibly by observation of the latest visible satellite imagery. The RUC/RR picked up this as well, but shows the highest coverage of thunder in the same area per the K-Index measurement tool, which looks suspect. The HRRR buys into it too as well. In another light though, almost no one lives in the areas shown to have the highest coverage in the area across far South Central over the interior. 


In summation, expecting peak hours to begin around 5:30  and last through 8:39pm (Precisely) Dead Central possibly as far east as I-95 in Volusia and North Brevard. Other areas further east could see some light rainfall as outflows work east  along the retreating sea breeze decay after 9pm.  Diminishing activity toward mid evening.


The remainder of the weak is   pretty much the same game.  Latest guidance indicates   the low-mid level ridge axis' now across South Central toward the Lake might both decay to the point that steering winds become irreconcilably close to completely irrelevant, as if lack of steering currents for storm motion wasn't weak enough already. Wind barbs being reduced to mere featherless barbs of random nothingness. So, like an arrow with feathers, so is the storm location going to be, directionless.


By Late weekend, we might be in for a pattern shift removing slowly the rain chances for specifically the East side of the state except toward West Palm and South; however, as one might and should expect, those prospects go away only to return with every other model run. Looks like summer. 

DOH

Surprise Surprise, Thunder Chance Arise!

As Noted, slightly to much better chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially Southern 1/3 of state

TODAY: Much contested return , if not first days  , of true summer like weather cannot go unchallenged per Florida climatology. With Debby well away, and a series of impulses which have resulted in widespread severe weather reports across states to the north the past 2-3 day eroding the mid-level pocket of high pressure, the air mass cannot help but slowly modify toward seasonal norms in regard to ample atmospheric moisture substantial enough for thunderstorm generation. Yes,a bit slowly, but nonetheless it is occurring today.


Large clusters of thunder to the north sent a mammoth tidal wave of outflow across the north with subsidence in its wake. As the waters are settled there a remnant slosh affect aloft may have left a pool of moisture toward Ocala and surrounding jungles of interior North to North Central. This appears will slide south to SSW today as noted in the Orange area.


Further South , moisture convergence from Lake and Ocean breeze boundaries could well result in some later afternoon through evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates some good coverage and a few high end poppers, although latest official NWS forecasts do not reflect that to be the case at all. However, given that undoubtedly there are some 'invisible ripples' aloft tootling around up there, it may not hurt for folks in those areas to keep an eye to the sky as they could act as triggers. Much of the activity if it manifests would be over un-low populated areas except toward Western Portions of the SE Metropolii.


Further north of the Lake, would not pass up the chance for some showers or thunder to erupt toward dinner time to sunset (or a bit sooner) as moisture converges along the sea and Lake Boundaries. There is a slice of dry air in the mid levels today bi-secting the state, and given the overall synoptic scale set up this would more than likely act as a prohibitive factor for anything to develop there, at least that is how it appears so far. From the looks of it  from here, it does not appear anything could possibly form within 1000 miles , but that is not the case as satellite and radar are manifesting activity arising near the Ocala Safari Jungles. 


Point is when push comes to shove, most if anyone of the readers (if there is any) who see this will not see rain today but will be able to potentially see it in the distance if they know what to look for, even as close as Brevard County.  Given model outputs last hour, the southern 1/3 could actually be in for a good smattering which is totally contradictory to forecast discussions I am reading. Never sell remnant outflows combined with moisture convergence short in the summer in the first week of July across Florida.


BEYOND: Increasingly better chances of thunder with each day, although Tuesday or Wednesday might be yet another transitional day before Thursday -  Saturday when at which point it could end up being a daily struggle with pin-pointing just where and when the storms (or strongest/best storms) will exist. The trend has been to favor the east side, and not so coincidentally, matching up with GFS runs from over a week ago, lest we forget. The immediate coast north of West Palm might even get in on the act.

Quite Warm, Chance of Thunderstorms By Mid-Late Week

In Reference to the 'normal' summer wet season

THIS WEEK: Short post today. Very warm and stuffy out under high pressure aloft. A bit on the dry side, which is in reference to the above image. highs in the low-mid 90Fs wide spread, with the lower humidity (although gradually increasing)..making heat indexes less than 'impossible' relatively speaking.


Weather from yesterday through Tuesday to be a bit unlike summer, and more like an intermittent prelude to the onset of the wet season, more like mid-May to late-May-ish.  The other morning, Vero recorded a record low of 68F, whereas in Canaveral the porch read 67F, identical to that of the likes of a temperature which heralds the end of summer only by personal observation for this area, rather than the onset of the wet season.  Given the strange circumstances and length of time that Debby was in the area, some major realignments are in order now. These will be in progress through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the best chance of an inland shower or two due to sea breeze convergence, and a thunderstorm of two along the Florida SW Coast.


High pressure in the mid-levels will begin to erode due to an onslaught of troughs running across the Ohio Valley region, eventually to the point that a new mid-level ridge axis will form across South Florida if not further south. The result will be light SW flow aloft accompanied by a 'hard to determine at this point' east coast sea breeze. The first more pronounced day for thunderstorms along I-4 and into the South will be July 4th, more so the following two days.


Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be sinking south toward the north end of the state across the Deep South accompanied by its moisture convergence boundary, simultaneously, moisture from the tropics will finally work its was east toward the state. Exactly which feed of moisture will arrive first to North Central is difficult to say at this point due to the time in the future yet still. Either way, after Friday with possible storms mainly along the Central Dividing Line and south, possibly along I-4 toward Daytona...all things change as to where the better rain chances will be. Overnight GFS shows a combination of both worlds, or at least a hint of such, heralding a return to normalcy, give or take the direction storm motions will be makes all the difference in the world in regard to who is affected and who is not.


In short, Debby Stole our wet season, although most definitely, some would beg to differ...those flooded out. However, that was not 'wet season' rains.. climatology speaking in it's purest form.