Isaac's Pull Toward Zero Gravity - Bobbing for the Poison Apple

Best guess impacts based on NAM/FIM/GFS/ECMWF Trends show this could be mainly a coastal event north of Ft. Pierce due to timing of overnight Sunday into mid-afternoon Monday before the storm winds tighter and pulls away from the Central and Southern Peninsula. Any tornado threat might be limited to landfalling waterspouts toward Eastern Orange County and south along I-95 toward interior portions near Lake Okeechobee and up the west coast .
Highest impacts overall in the boxes.

TODAY: Except with the rain anomaly running up the east coast into Volusia and across South Florida/Keys, the rest of the day will be quiet as surface winds begin to increase over South Florida toward sunset with the exception of the Keys to remain very breezy through the duration of their event.

Storm Isaac is now over Eastern Cuba and is barely discernible except in visible satellite animations. This will be the case most of the day and into tonight until well past midnight when the center is expected to emerge in the waters of the Florida Straits north of Central Cuba.  Fairly rapid organization is expected from this point and beyond as the storm moves between WNW-NW into the Keys during the day on Sunday. 

Tropical storm conditions appear fairly certain for Palm Beach county - south and westward, perhaps as far north as Ft. Pierce, although a warning box is out as far north as Sebastian Inlet. 

Further north, although winds can be gusty, at this rate they do not appear they will be unusually so. Rainfall will work up the coast and reach the area near 528/Port Canaveral by early afternoon and increase into the evening as the Storm begins to emerge into the Gulf and take its NW-NNW turn. 

The latest GFS track with others model in tow is quite close to the Hurricane Center's forecast, and the GFS is quite adamant on nailing the Cape area of Brevard toward Port St. John, Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, North Cocoa toward I-95, Merritt Island with some good rains, but the winds outside of squalls will not be anything beyond the "Anonymous No Name" of last October. 

 There is also a chance of tornadoes, especially land falling waterspouts along the east coast as the best wind shear will occur early Monday morning before sunrise through mid-afternoon near the beaches and rivers where frictional drag is minimized. The most instability during this time frame will be advected onto the shore from the warm Atlantic waters whereas land areas will not be able to destabilize under cloud cover. This is NOT to say the entire region across the peninsula will not be under a tornado watch, however, as models seldom if ever truly pick up on the rain bandings.

 Best shear overall appears will be across the west half of the state toward Orlando, but whether the heavier squalls will reach here remains up in the air.   But is so, crayola that area in if you wish.

This post is geared toward the line of thinking that the storm will wind to tightly after early afternoon for  much of the turning motions required for rotating mini-supercells to hold fast during peak heating anyway. 

Therefore, outside of this mere blog post, as always heed all statements transmitted by the National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center via Weather Radio and media outlets. Chances are, local TV Channels will be airing live coverage during the time frame from overnight Sunday and through much of Monday, so unless one loses electricity, the TV is a valuable asset to get a good visual on what is actually occurring as well as approaching any one area/location  during these hours. Primarily for Central from 2pm Sunday through 2pm Monday.

The Tropical Cyclone appears could make landfall in the red box area as a minimal hurricane, at least measured above ground level.  That is not to say the storm will not be dubbed a hurricane any time along the path from the Keys onward, but chances are many of the winds at that time of sustained hurricane strength will remain above the ground around 5000 feet.

BEYOND: Some trailing vorticity streamers and ample moisture as winds become more southerly to SSW could result in warm and muggy conditions Tuesday through Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms toward mainly the East Coast.

*** REFER TO ALL OFFICIAL STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. THIS POST
 DOES NOT COVER ANY EXTRA MEASURES AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN WHAT APPEARS MOST OBVIOUS AT THIS TIME.  THIS BLOG IS NOT A VALID SOURCE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION**** 

Very Little Activity Today with Light Wind

Image might be generous. Could be a storm near or west of Orlando area as any outflow or shadow effect from cloud coverage to the north combined with a weak sea breeze from the west coast and Lake breezes manifests a shower or storm there. Toward the east side the same general properties exist (possibilities). Toward South Florida models are showing a storm there, however it appears too much mid-level drying might have already taken shape but never say never. Same goes toward North Brevard where 'if' a storm or two can manifest outflows cloud produce some light rain or a cloud deck 

TODAY: Surface ridge that had been toward South Florida is lifting north and now resides across Central Florida with calm winds. Clouds are on the way out, so inland heating should not be an issue today. Dry air in the mid-levels is being noted so activity to form in and near the drier air should be isolated at best. The mid-level ridge axis remains toward Lake Okeechobee all day, so steering from Central Brevard and north remains from the SW-WSW which could mean little if no activity gets started. Suspect a sea breeze will form from the east in general but remain fairly light all day all areas. Cloudy skies to the north should preclude much if any in actual thunder activity other than one thundershower now in progress.

FRIDAY: Continued easterly flow develops and dry air works in more so. Next shot of showers could be on Saturday coming in off the ocean as the dry slot erodes.

TROPICS: Latest GFS now coming out up through Friday is close to the previous run. It is noticed that there is little in surface winds around the surface circulation which is now shown approaching Jamaica but the mid level circulation is much larger. It is north of the Dominican that the strongest winds are actually manifest, likely as a result of pressure gradient winds from high pressure to the north. The NWS/NHC centers are watching this system as amplified across the airwaves. It is noticed that if this storm becomes a hurricane it will be minimal, at least as it appears now although that could change. We might have to watch, given the weak surface reflection, for a new center to emerge 'elsewhere' which could be north of the landmasses. If so, the track of the system would have to shift more toward the east. As it appears now there is a close bundle of tracks that take the system toward the Central Key's and east toward Miami/Ft Lauderdale as a solid tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The NAM insists on forming a new center north of the eastern tip of Cuba as the circulation passes between the DR and that island, possibly as a result of frictional drag of the low level winds across the DR. (Dominican Republic). The main squeeze models insist on a bundle along to just off shore the west coast toward Panama City narrowly skirting Ft Meyers and Tampa (in general). Much will be revealed on Saturday, as warmest sea surface temperatures are showing up north of Cuba. In the last few hours convective cloud tops have warmed significantly over a region that had flared up earlier. In short, time will tell with little expected gain in strength, but refer to the NHC (the hurricane center).

Some Strong/Marginal Severe Wind Gusts Possible in Storms Today

Downpour with rain-free ,lightning producing updraft  
over Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

RECAP: Abnormal amounts of rain and lightning for a summer day as depicted in the graphic of yesterday's post where multiple storms occurred. Rainfall varied vastly depending on one's location relevant to re-occurring cell propagation paths, with my location received 3.21". Highest rainfall totals were near the Tampa Area with one unofficial report well over 7" near South Pasadena. Not expecting such high totals today.  Wind gusts of 68mph and 78mph were reported by mesonet locations in Brevard County, with damage noted in that same county in several locations.

TODAY: Varied theme today due to continued cloud coverage resulting in lower low-level and mid-level lapse rates, although this will change during the course of the mid-late afternoon, especially for those areas in and near where big cloud breaks are most prevalent.  Sea breeze along the east coast due to cloud cover will be harder to come by, with showers and thunder already nearly half way across the state near I-4 toward 528. Believe the strongest activity will occur as a result of outflows from this activity and propagation along any sea breezes south of the Cape, with back-drafts from offshore showers/storms resulting in potentially more than one rain chance from Cape Canaveral toward Ft pierce or Vero Beach north of the Lake Okeechobee shadow in the WSW steering of 20kts.  Chances are it will be the first storm (or second) that will contain any strong winds since after that point cooling due to rain cooled air will erode the low level lapse rate differential.  Down Draft Cape over South Florida and dry mid level drying might prevent storms of strength altogether, but domino propagation south toward West Palm might result in an isolated event.

THURSDAY: One more day of a similar pattern, although coverage at this rate not expected to be as extensive. Surface ridge will be located already toward at least Lake Okeechobee which will lift further north on Friday putting an end to the pattern over the southern 2/3rds of the state. Easterly flow is then expected to develop across much of the state by Friday into the weekend as the upper level trough just north of the state is lifted north and east in response to a ridge of higher pressure building eastward from the Southwest U.S.

BEYOND: No surprises here regarding Isaac. The 'gravity' of the situation regarding the developing system's intensity and path are still, as always, up for grabs, debate, speculation, and gossip. At this conjunction, we can at least refer to various model projections varying from 15-75 miles off the east coast as a Category II Hurricane to on or just up a tracing of the entire west coast. Looking at history, such a path has never occurred, at least as far as what the morning GFS of 12Z shows. The previous run was a track similar to Hurricane Cleo of 1974 up the Center of the State, while the GFDL looked quite similar to that of Hurricane David of 1979 up the east coast. The apple falls not far from the tree.

Understand  that these are merely mathematical calculations based on current conditions which change continuously, and are thus a sampling of a wide variety of other schemes. The ECMWF has the storm now missing the state entirely
As a result of the future course of ISAAC, the weekend forecast is interminable.  It is noticed that if the storm takes a west coast track, it appears the storm overall will be a bit 'right handed/heavy'. This would the entire state in the NE quadrant of the storm at various times which could be or pose a tornado hazard.  On the other hand, an east coast track would pose little heavy rainfall threat other than close to the circulation. There is no  accounting for unexpected slowing down of the storm, which throws all to oft the track completely out of whack regardless of what any model at this point indicates

"Swirl Overhead!"

Another Shot At Storms, Better Than Yesterday Central?

Another shot of storms today, might be earlier nearest I-4 and north, with
2 rounds possible East Central Cape South to Ft. Pierce and inland

TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday although South Florida was contaminated by outflow off Cuba from the South overnight which might have stabilized this area a bit much. Additionally, guidance is showing a dry slot toward South Central north of Lake Okeechobee. With daytime heating this could be exasperated and make numerous showers/storms difficult to manifest, although the SE Shores toward Palm Beach county could see something active toward the beaches...this drier slot was the case yesterday across Central portions south of I-4. The past two afternoons have been thrown a bit out of whack by Down Draft CAPE appearing by early afternoon, yesterday quite so much so that storms could only really form along the sea breeze front late afternoon from the Cape and South where convergence was maximized in earnest. 

Different story today as the signal for a good sea breeze is not readily apparent per the mainstream models, but regardless would think it feasible to tack on a sea breeze from the Cape and south where action should be delayed a bit. Showers/thunder could go a bit earlier near the Cape if so, but would not expect that activity if it forms to be the only show in town in that same area later on in the afternoon toward early evening. Otherwise, it will be near and north of I-4 action might get started the earliest.

Further north, with faster steering and deeper moisture one shot at storms might cloud the area over resulting in a rain shield, whereas further south better mixing with the drier air just south of the Beachline across toward Sarasota could result in a training effect, especially wherever that remnant boundary to the south has ended up which I suspect is just south of the Beach line. Time will tell. Temperatures aloft a bit warmer than yesterday, barely so though. All in all, a few stronger storms will be possible if we can get a sea breeze in near the coast. The latest NAM shows one big fat rain blob later this afternoon so it looks like today will be getting sticky after 5pm in regard to storm strength potential (being weak) if so. One other model shows a ribbon of strong storms from near Port St John south toward Vero moving off shore late today, thus the red line indication.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Another day like today before things change on Thursday and rain chances begin to wane slowly.  

TROPICS: As expected, the tropics are making headlines now. Latest GFS runs since yesterday continue to show at least a strong tropical storm impacting the state of Florida by early next week, with the ECMWF taking a bit longer and stronger with a more western side of the state to just offshore track. Other models show the system missing the state entirely to the east well off shore..with one working the east coast from Miami toward JAX. All in all , then..not much change and expect we will hear everything but the kitchen sink in coming days due to the proximity of the Dominican Republic and Cuba being thrown in to the batter as the Potter's Wheel spins and things begin to mold and brush land-masses throwing a wrench into storm strength forecast determinations all the more heart-wretching.

Strong-Marginal Severe Storms Through Wednesday, Tropical Stand By Potential

Image not all inclusive as all along the east coast and along and North of I-4 have the 'red potential for strong

TODAY: Deep mid-upper level trough which is quite unusually placed so far south continues in place extending north to south from near James Bay toward the Deep South and well into the Gulf. Surface ridge south of Florida places SW-WSW storm steering currents across the state between those two features. 

KSC sounding shows mid-level temperatures have dropped back down a degree or two, and more cooling could occur this afternoon at that level.  It also appears a sea breeze will form potentially as far north as Volusia, but more likely Brevard and South to get toward  US1/I-95 north of the Big Lake. Highest instability across the South 1/2 of the state and toward the east coast of Central, but this will be greatly contingent on cloud cover across Volusia. Shear and the presence of divergence aloft north of I-4 strongest but greatest combination of divergence and instability could be toward Brevard late today toward sunset. Moisture no issue with varying dry and moist slots throughout the column of storm bearing heights in the atmosphere. 

Given the factors today, there could be small hail (non-damaging), and strong wind gusts toward 40-55mph, especially after 5pm, but all storms could contain frequent lightning and some excessively so especially where outflow boundaries collide with the east coast sea breeze and as storms work against that breeze toward the east coast after 5pm south of I-4 and more so near and south of 528 to Ft. Pierce. Onset earliest along and north of I-4 with outflows working south from the north increasing shear at the mid-levels Central and low level shear on approaching activity due to sea breeze along the East Coast Brevard/Indian River/St Lucie counties where also low level coastal surface vorticity/slight helicity could be present. It all comes down to timing though, and if late, things could change quickly after 5-6pm for Brevard south to St. Lucie. Waterspouts might become an issue, or funnel clouds might be observed in one or two instances as well. Dragon flies are hovering this morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Differing variations of this theme continue, with perhaps a better chance of stronger storms on Tuesday..but all in all it's a day by day, play by play.

BEYOND/TROPICS: Surface ridge continues to be forecast to lift to Central by later in the weak as a tropical disturbance is forecast to become a depression by the two main models approaching Cuba. The latest GFS (two consecutive runs) as well as the latest ECMWF made available early this A.M. both show this disturbance to curve around the southern periphery of this ridge toward South Florida which cannot lift out due to the departing trough to the north that is effecting our weather the past two days through mid-week this week. 

This would be good timing for such a scenario since a trough of this depth now in place would by then no longer be taking hold (for so long) at this early time of the year (that is, for a trough this deep that looks more like fall). 

The GFS takes this disturbance as a solid tropical storm up the west coast ..but the latter run now coming in as I type takes it up the Center of the state. The ECMWF is showing a similar scenario.

Thus, by Monday (this time next week) we MIGHT already be in some form of a tropical alert mode for strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and a tornado watch. All this is preliminary considering how far out in time this is...time will tell.  The GFS then brings a second disturbance to follow the same general course but a bit further north toward the east coast, but the signal is very very weak right now and it is so far out in time the ECMWF (the European model) does not even go this far out. Crystal ball mode. 

In summary, confidence level has doubled since yesterday in the first case for 'something' to effect Florida next week..this will likely be heralded across all air- waves today and on TV at some point, but it is not definite.

Similar To Yesterday, Only A Bit Later with Thunder

WHITE TEXT ABOVE

TODAY (SUNDAY): Looks like a faux repeat of yesterday with the early morning boundary missing that was across Central yesterday. As such, earlier activity at this conjuncture not anticipated (pre-noon) but should see activity appear near East Central by 1-2pm time frame moving toward the beaches. We have clear skies in this location now as of mid morning, but satellite imagery reveals a different story in other locations, so heating and destabilization might take a bit longer to manifest in more clouded regions, thus too later for....the showers and storms as they trek across the state from the west to west south west.

 Perhaps the strongest activity will be off the tip of the Cape and near Vero and Ft. Pierce (where a sea breeze could develop). Elsewhere, any sea breeze from the Cape south will be glued and limited to the A1A Strip Bar to US1 or even i-95 in Palm Beach County. Showers to move off shore, with the strongest activity and propagation resulting in development southward toward North or Central Palm Beach County (at least). Morning soundings show slight warming in the mid levels so severe not likely.

BEYOND: Similar scenario Monday, but as the surface ridge now south of the state attempts to lift north, the low level pressure gradient will weaken and allow the sea breezes to work with each other a bit more. This potential aspect combined with cooler air aloft could result in stronger activity late Monday and/or Tuesday into Wednesday. The front mentioned yesterday now looks like it might not ever make it toward the panhandle.

TROPICS: This general pattern of typically wet season summer weather appears will come toward an end possibly near the end of the week as the GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF to bringing a disturbance toward Cuba and South Florida later on down the line near this time next week or so. What has been showing up as a follow up Hurricane potential seems to have dwindled by the dying embers of the camp fire heat sources in the Atlantic, but who knows what the Witches are Brewing up.  Interestingly though, the tropical wave or depression gets hung up as an inverted trough across Central for several days resulting in tropical like downpours and inches upon inches of rainfall , with a low forming along its NE boundary off the Carolinas. This could easily change in model runs ahead.

Early-Mid Afternoon Showers / Storms Again Today

As can be seen, showers and storms forming after 10AM Already moving toward the east. Best dynamics are from Daytona North, so although not noted in this image, there is a chance of stronger storms from DAB to JAX near the beach

TODAY: Model guidance of a few days ago did well in capturing the west to east storm steering winds to increase as is now indicated by morning sounding data and alluded to here previously. Winds at 2000 ft could permit the east coast sea breeze to form but remain east of US1 at best, if at all for that matter. Seriously questioning if it can do more than get as far as the eastern most barrier island at best and if even. 

Cloud cover could reduce differential surface heating once activity starts to build and cloud/anvil debris puts in crimp in the storm operative style, but it appears there will be time for a sea breeze from the Cape South,   barely. 

More likely from Sebastian or Vero and South. Otherwise, farther north an early morning 'boundary' made for a 'roll cloud' like feature to move across that area and it is now decaying toward the Cape. This feature could add fuel to storms near or just south of it, especially if the sea breeze can initiate. Thus, the South or Central Brevard area to Vero could be in for a good storm today. Otherwise, temperatures aloft are close to yesterday but seem to be a degree or two warmer in the mid levels so chances are all things will equal out for something potentially 'out of the norm' to occur like a funnel cloud as what occurred and photographed but an alert observer, but the strongest activity might end up occurring as the storms move offshore, especially from Melbourne and North of there, rather than on the land area. There is a chance the warming aloft might be temporary as well, so in other words, would not expect that graphic to be all it's made out to be...with coverage from JAX to MIA from weak to strong just about anywhere.

BEYOND: Same sort of set up through Tuesday, with the day's activities contingent upon what occurs if anything early on or even over night. Latest satellite imagery shows 4 distinct impulses rotating around the base of the trough centered from an upper level low near James Bay (of all places) from NE Colorado East South Eastward to Central Georgia. It is a very large trough cutting down the eastern third of the U.S. accompanied by a developing surface front with time, which could make it as far south as the Florida Panhandle before frontalysis takes place (decay).

As this does so, a low level ridge is forecast (now south of the state) to lift north with time by late week allowing sea breeze convergence type activity to form but continue to press toward the east side of the state into the weekend, next.

TROPICS: The GFS has a developing hurricane passing well to the east of Florida pegging coastal North Carolina, whereas the ECMWF shows two separate impulses developing in the eastern Caribbean, one which passes south of Florida and across the western top of Cuba, with the latter a bit further north  toward Puerto Rico on an east to ENE course. The GFS has been showing something that it depicts a somewhat similar for many days now, but the location and destination has been as questionable as a tourist figuring out which tourist trap it wants to head toward, will it be Nova Scotia or somewhere else. In any case, we will likely be hearing more and more about one if not two features in the next 7-10 days.

Twist of Fate Day Explained, Strong/Severe Warned Possible

Activity over Gulf Could send an Outflow Boundary out across North Half of State Too Early

TODAY: "Twist of Fate' Meaning a twist to the day's forecast contingent upon what occurs with that large storm cluster off shore in the Gulf. If outflow occurs and blows across the North Half, then storms might try to initiate to early before the east coast sea breeze has a grasp on the situation and before instability can build up. That possibility at this time is indeterminable and even so might not make that much of a difference, only to prevent stronger activity there. Strongest activity well could be further south though from Central Osceola toward South Brevard and southward toward Lake Okeechobee toward West Palm, but not anyone appears to be immune to impossibles. Even earlier activity could form near the Cape as soon as the sea breeze starts by 2pm.

Otherwise, cool temperatures aloft are again forecast in the mid-levels across Central although some guidance paints the entire state being cooler at those levels. With no inhibition and ample moisture, that also means an early start (somewhere). 

It does appear a 'boundary' is in the making from Bradenton to south Central Brevard and suspect some tricky mis-guided doings and surprises are in today's package of tricks along those lines especially toward the east coast.  Earlier activity less strong, stronger activity after 4pm per yesterday's chain of limited events except toward East Central. Steering is also stronger toward the east all regions and earlier activity will only enhance the effects from outflows toward the coast, strongest north of West Palm by a few miles per hour, thus activity should not dawdle as much as yesterday along the Indian River of Brevard and south, lingering longer South Central to parts of Southern portions.

It would be pertinent to be aware of activity AS it forms today, as the first bolts oft occur outside of the rain area, or when it is barely raining. This holds true for beach goers as well. If you hear thunder, it's best to make head way away to safe shelter, meaning the inside of a building. If one does not hear thunder but sees towering clouds, same holds true even more so!... leapin' 'lizards' know no bounds...by miles even, zap.

BEYOND: No change from previous post, day by day basis analysis for showers and thunder possible through the weekend and at least into early next week. .

Similar To Yesterday, Same Through Saturday

The only difference today is temperature aloft might be a bit cooler in the red zone east central, otherwise, the wind patterns have changed very little. The rest is up to chance

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday, same holds for the weekend. Upper level trough to deepen with the core low well toward the Great Lakes if not Canada. As it 'deepens' (or pressures fall) so too will the trough over the eastern 1/3 of the U.S.  which could increase steering toward the east coast (mainly northern 2/3rd of state) a bit more by the weekend. Otherwise, deep moisture with drying in the mid levels, cool temps aloft that are less than otherwise   a full bore tropical environment, could lead to some stronger storms with heavy rainfall mainly beginning after 5pm through dark if not later contingent upon remaining out flow boundaries and unadulterated, energized areas awaiting to activate.

Activity most likely to work off the east coast from North Brevard on up, but propagation from those  storms could result in enhanced activity further south to work both east and to the south and move off shore as far south as almost Vero or so, if those areas are not too worked over  early on or are encompassed by high level cirrus from earlier activity. Once it is dark, it becomes irrelevant as lifted condensations levels will be then be lower making it easier for storms to self-sustain a bit longer..and move faster on their own accord by self propagation within their own storm mechanism structure. Would not be surprised to see some severe warnings and reports today, or bordering toward that due to winds...maybe pea hail to smaller than that.

BEYOND: Continued storm chances each and every day with heavy rainfall and gusty winds in and near the storms, especially toward evening. We received here 1.80" of rain in a relatively short time frame after dark last night, with powerful CG lightning mainly off shore as the storms regenerated yet even still. Some gust winds were realized as well, knocking pool furniture into the pool.

The Summer Games are On and Unchanging, Win!

Monday, August 13th at a Cape Canaveral Manatee and Exercise Part

Dot...dot...dot.

Possible Stronger Storms Today in Red Zone for Starters, One Severe Warning Just Issued near Tampa at 3:40pm

TODAY: Not much to say really, if you know what yesterday was like you're good through Friday with minor variations to the same theme. I hear thunder as of this typing, but there's no rain (here), at least not yet. Highest instability appears to be across Central with activity already having begun. Steering is light from west to east about 8-12 mph, and sea breeze collision has yet to occur. 

Therefore, with late day enhancements adorning the low level wind pattern as   the sea breezes meet  with additional outflows from earlier activity, could see some strong storms continue yet very isolated into early evening. I really did not spend too terribly much time going into high refinement mode as this pretty much sums it up in the absence of strong winds aloft, extraordinarily cold air aloft not so much, and lack of synoptic scale boundaries as it appears providing for standard Summer 2012 fare, "It" has finally arrived (although one might have thought so along time ago, in a sense, the storm patterns never really did). Let the games begin..

Wednesday through Friday?   dot..dot..dot...

Transition day -Showers/Storms Possible Mainly North Half

Remnant hint of mid-level trough near edge of bounds of high pressure shows in the band of gray across Central which started out as greater cloud coverage early today could play in  later on.

TODAY: Transition day. Transition from what? Hurricane/Storm Ernesto has made landfall and has thus moved far enough from Florida to stop effecting the mid-upper level pressure pattern. As a result, although steering is weak, from near the Cape and north it is from the west to northwest, whereas below that they winds are negligent. Precipitable water values are remnant from the Tropical Wave over the weekend and have been lingering in the region for days now, but the greatest concentration is north half as further south, this region is indirectly being sucked dry by Ernesto. Guidance shows a deep moisture surge along the SE Florida coast but satellite imagery does not reflect this to be the case, at least not yet. Therefore, with sea breeze convergence closer toward the West Coast and latest guidance reflecting some cooler air aloft could mean either storms could form for one reason or the other SW of Lake Okeechobee with some colder air aloft sneaking in. 

The better likelihood is to the north though. With the storm pulling away in a near COL pattern over Central and South Florida the mid-level trough further north is now permitted to work south more during the day to some degree between meeting the eastern Atlantic ridge axis barely reaching across Central Florida in the lower portions of the mid-levels toward Central.

With that said, steering is from the west to even NW later today toward East Central. Chances are any rain will remain west of I-95 South of I-4 but it is not guaranteed. It could be the zone south of I-4 will see increased mid-level clouds later today and that will be that, with the better chance of possibly even offshore moving showers and thunder from Central or North Volusia and west (and north of there). There is a bit of a dry mid-level slot across South Central which might have thrown earlier model runs off, because they are no longer showing storms NW of the Big Lake as was the case earlier. That, will only be determined later today, but for now have left that region out in the rain coloring schematic.

TOMORROW: Some general pattern continues with better chances of rain (but barely) from SW Florida NEward toward I-4 and north Florida with other showers elsewhere, although the immediate coast south of I-4 is in question, but likely a no-go for rain at this conjecture.

WORKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND: Appears moisture from a few tropically undefined by name or status 'wave like perturbances'  could be working toward Florida with a shift toward a more Southerly to SSE in the low levels to SW steering and overall wind direction ensuing, albeit light. This would mean an increasing in afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity from a broader perspective, with activity hedging toward the east coast and potentially cloud lines and showers setting up along to just west of the east coast intracoastal waterways. Warm and muggy as would be expected.

TROPICALLY BEYOND: The GFS has been showing except in one out of four daily runs for two solid days a hurricane approaching the U.S. east coast toward the third week of August. This is quite far out in time though, and could suddenly disappear at the drop of a dime. The EURO does not even go that far out in time for clarification purposes on any actually threat which has varied with a margin of error, or cone of error, that extends from the Florida east coast to just off Maine. The pretty much covers the bases and says essentially nothing..but for now, just an itch behind the ear. Might not hurt to look in the pantry and buckle up on storm preparations though since we are approaching the Peak of Storm Season going from Late August through September and into early October. Nothing like being caught with the pants down and nothing to buckle up with before the thundering throngs crash the market places and the price grouches  (gougers) play their pawn for check-mate at the counters.

Chances of Rain/Thunder Much Later Today/Tonight with Wave?

Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis extracted from the Rapid Refresh/RUC shows the surface based axis of the Tropical Wave has entered South Florida and tilting toward the NE. The mid-level
axis is a bit further back to the east (barely) . PROBLEM, the axis in the mid-levels is dry with the bulk of the moisture well behind it and along the northern 'crest of the wave'

TODAY: Winds at Canaveral have actually gone N-NNE in some locations per surface observations. Prime indicator that East Central is still ahead of the tropical wave - wind shift line  axis at the low levels. It appears the greatest moisture in the mid-levels needed to make rain resides yet further back than this surface wind shift line with a dry slot apparent as of the latest guidance. The dry slot could take nearly all day to clear the coast and shift inland, but per some guidance will throw in as shown below the rain chances later today toward late afternoon and into the evening. The NAM continues to show a tiny vorticity center in the mid-levels as is shown above moving directly over the Cape Canaveral/Titsuville area and then continuing toward Ocala then into the Big Bend heading into Sunday.  Meanwhile, with the dry slot, very muggy with possible showers mainly west of the river intracoastals but more and most likely near the first area where moisture increases and along sea breeze boundaries toward the SW Coast and interior. Best rain chances eventually could well be near and north of the vorticity lobe where coastal convergence will be maximized due to slightly stronger low-mid level winds (but nothing significant in the wind regard).

SW Coast region with inland showers possible about anywhere most likely much later (if at all) toward the East Coast from Brevard County and North . Again though, this is a mere rough guesstimate so as always consult the Official Forecast from the National Weather Surface.  We may eventually be hearing about the chance of waterspouts come late today or tonight from any strong, onshore rolling shower  or storm, but again the time (if ever) is questionable in regard to rainfall chances

  TONIGHT: NAM is consistent with bringing this vorticity center shown into coastal Central Florida with the surface reflection of a weak low level circulation over South Florida, The entire trough moves WNW over night with greater moisture continuing from what is currently in place on Sunday behind it being dragged behind on its tail flank. It is noted that temperatures aloft are much warmer now, or are forecast to warm, thus thunder might be hard to come by heading into Sunday.  It could well be that any rain showers with cool winds will stabilize large areas right from the get go, and with such slow movement of shower activity it might be that widespread coverage at one  time will be hard to come by if ever. This is more of a 'different slant of the story' from the main broadcast weather headlines possibly been heard elsewhere.


Meanwhile, Storm Ernesto is moving West into the Caribbean as we read and speak. The official guidance can be seen on the future track on any channel. Interestingly, the GFS shows the track to move a little toward   the south, and the latest guidance on CIMMS shows the Deep Layer Mean flow for this 'less than well organized system' could take it in a more WSW direction for quite some time by later today and into tonight, into Southern regions of the Yucatan or a bit further north. Based on those tid bits of  (model data) information as well as the Euro which last I looked took it practically into Central America the concerns for other than Jamaica are as of right now not too high, at least not in regard to Florida's perspective.  


Locally, rain chances look questionable to me through Monday, with both locations and timing of rainfall a tough call. With warm air aloft, any rain cooled air regions will have a tough time manifesting much of anything more due to limited instability as cloud cover increases. We'll just have to see how it all plays out. Could end up being a mainly nocturnal event from start to finish near the east coast and eventually a broader area heading into Monday.

Interior Strong Thunder Possible, Muggy Messy Weekend

Green shows rain chance zones heading into red, where isolated strong storms are possible due to mid level dry slot preceding a tropical wave (much like a dip before an ocean wave) and cold air aloft along the Lake , east coast sea breeze, and west coast sea breeze meeting places

TODAY: Will not go into extraneously extensive detail as guidance continues to attempt a resolve to what could occur this weekend in regard to a tropical wave and timing of it being realized up the east coast.


In the next image a general idea can be seen of what is going on out and up there this morning. The mid-level trough of the past several days as expected is lifting out as a tropical wave moves in from the SE to replace it. The moisture field associated with the wave is deep, up to 10,000 ft at least, but preceding it is a dry slot in the mid levels although the lower levels remain quite moist as can be felt upon stepping outside. Cold air aloft remains though, so between the colder air, instability, and Lake and Sea breezes coupled with outflow boundaries from showers and eventually storms the saga of rain and showers today could continue well past dark over the interior and toward the west coast as steering is shifting now toward the interior and west side from  the south- south -east to north during the course of the day.

This is for 10,000 feet, with the darkest green being the greatest moisture at that level. It is also deep to the surface in these same locations below in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Note the dry slot though of white. The area WNW-NW toward interior Volusia could see some good rains and west of there, as steering is slow, thus, some big rainfall totals could be realized somewhere today by the time mid-evening comes

Tropical wave seen above over the Bahamas. Without going into great detail there is two options becoming apparent per the NAM and ECMWF. 850mb vorticity (center) is shown consistently to approach Brevard County on Saturday with a closed mid -level low working downward toward the surface but circulation is weak. With cooler air aloft,  for even in rainshowers over the weekend (particularly the first one of the day for any location) winds could be strong in and near them, but once an area is worked over by rain cooled air, that is no longer much of a factor except near the vort max.  The NAM goes too far likely, showing nearly a 'dry eye' center near South Central Brevard by Sunday with rain all around it but not heavy. Point being, winds across the Bahamas may generate a self-induced weak surface low just as westerly winds downstream of the Rocky Mountains create a downstream trough over Kansas and Oklahoma. Timing will become factorless on the rain chances but best chances will be mid-morning through mid-evening Saturday and Sunday, with the greatest chances of rain over the weekend commencing within 3 hours of sunrise and working west across the state. Cloudy and muggy mainly on Saturday and into Sunday, keeping the highs in to the mid 80s on average, but warmer depending on when it rains elsewhere and when or the extent of cloud cover. Winds from the SE by then going into Sunday behind the wave with moisture continuing.

On the other-hand, the GFS refuses to give creedance to any low pressure development by all means, but does imply a mid-level vort lobe. Either way, best rain chances appears over the weekend with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and humid and muggy 24/7.


BEYOND: Continued backwash moisture into Monday, with perhaps another 'wave' of moisture moving in well north of the other tropical disturbance, the 'storm', passing well south of Florida. The extent to which that system wraps up will determine our outcome into mid week weatherwise. The less wrapped up it is, the better chances of rain here will be.  

Isolated Strong Storms Seem More Likely Today, Mainly Beyond 4:30pm

Lighter steering toward the east (slower storm motions) will allow sea breeze and Lake Breeze boundaries to interact today. Overall, steering toward the coast seems more likely from Palm Beach County and north toward Southern Volusia as the 500mb trough is now located from near St. Augustine to Port Charlotte, and vorticity is stretched from near Bradenton to Cocoa Beach along its leading edge most of today

TODAY: Another variation of the past two with again a cluster of storms in the NE Gulf and what appears to be an outflow boundary if not now but soon to develop which could accelerate  from the west coast sea breeze inland across all of North Central except closer toward 528.  Thus, activity 'might' get started sooner here away from the upper level energy, although some mid-level energy could be realized for a stronger storm due to winds. Chances are though, the better chances for said strong activity will reside from near Port Canaveral southward toward Ft Pierce (in particular)..or perhaps Vero to Southern Palm Bay as a result if interactions with the Lake Breeze and sea breeze and resultant domino progression both north and southward.


The sea breeze, although light, could make it toward I-95 before realizing the west coast breeze south of the Space Center where steering further south ahead of the upper level trough will be more favorable for off shore or off the coast storms to result, as well as outflows from them reaching back to the coast to trigger more activity in 'a location somewhere' within those bounds from Brevard and Southward to Miami in general.


Temperatures aloft are cooler or are forecast to be so today than the past two days, so gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning is entirely plausible to assume will or can become a reality as well as dry air 'head bolts' preceding actual rainfall occur. Thus, be T'wise to take extra precaution both inland where clouds developed toward Orlando and South through Eastern Osceola County to the Lake Shore of Okeechobee. Would not be surprised if a funnel cloud or so report came in for entertainment purposes.


FRIDAY: Tough call frankly, as a tropical wave now over Central Cuba and northward will begin to lift the ridge axis now over far South Florida northward messing with our steering currents as a result. More than likely activity will not be impacting the east coast directly (i.e., beaches) but rather along and west of the intracoastal and the interior.


WEEKEND: Moisture associated with the waves to wash ashore sometime Saturday afternoon or evening toward early Sunday, hard call, but soonest along the east coast south of West Palm on Saturday. The ECMWF has been consistent with an 850mb vorticity center to clip just near the east coast, closest from Vero and the Cape ,so it is probably not safe to make any assumptions on timing and extent of precipitation heading from Late Saturday toward Sunday morning at this conjuncture.  


BEYOND: Moisture could loiter through Monday into Tuesday with likely a few tricks up its sleeve concerning time and location of rain and/or storms.  
Otherwise, there could be a  drying trend heading into mid-late week as the now Tropical Depression in the SE Caribbean slides mainly Westward south of Cuba and potentially close to Jamaica taking in the moisture field and robbing it from Florida. Guidance does show the system to become named or nearly so  , but it is tough call as to exactly when. Most guidance shows the system to become 'fully mature' to whatever extent that means near the Yucatan, taking it into Mexico or Southern Texas in about a week. A few outliers desire to drift it further north however. Point being, that's the point. No one can say, as is always the case is the extended absurdness. Such was the case last month or was it June when I system was though to head toward Texas and ended up around Florida. 

Variation of Monday in Progress - Showers and Some Thunder Possible

Thick Lipped Arcus Cloud/Storm Gust Front over Canaveral Warehouse

ANOTHER DAY OF 'DOMINO CHAIN REACTIONS' AND POCKETS
OF DRY AIR GUARANTEES  "NO GUARANTEES". Example chances of storms and perhaps something stronger in red but best chances of thunder in the green bounds (although far South Florida could see a very strong storm in no--man's land

TODAY: Different version of the same thing of what occurred yesterday is at hand. From image above, it can been seen a large MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) has dropped across the Panhandle already earlier than yesterday and the west coast sea breeze in broken zig zag fashion has initiated, all the while a line of showers is forming across North Central. This is similar to what occurred yesterday, but the MCS is much bigger and earlier than yesterday's event. Other wise, the east coast sea breeze has too set up south of Daytona.


Thus, we have outflow from the initial MCS, both sea breezes, and Lake Breezes to contend with in an afternoon that is not exactly atmospherically filled with abundant but nonetheless ample enough moisture where mechanisms meet. Additionally, chances are that activity along the North Central line could send off an additional outflow boundary south and east , thus some areas might circumvent rain altogether across Central with the exception being, or rather, the mitigating factor being rain cooled outflow and enhanced clouds over-passing some areas instead of rain. Exactly where across North Central into Central the outflow(s) will cease will determine who will receive the next shot at rain and storms heading toward 4:30-6:00pm. The region from South Brevard to the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee so far look more favorable today as opposed to further north with the exception of the Titusville region once again toward Port St. John. Steering toward the NE looks a bit stronger today as outflows work south but really anywhere from Southern Volusia to Ft Pierce have a chance for a storm with some stronger gusty winds.  The other area to watch will be toward the Everglades and eastward into perhaps parts of Palm Beach and Martin County (otherwise).


WEDNESDAY: Looks like yet again day 3 of the escapades cycle similar to today and yesterday, with the exception of the unknown storms to the north forming which have been the catalyst for the forecast further south this week in regard to stronger activity. There is a chance again of activity tomorrow, but exactly where and why will be the question, same with Thursday.


BEYOND: Tropical wave could affect all parts of South Florida on Saturday toward the Cape but the bigger impact looks to be statewide starting early Sunday working toward the west side by late afternoon, after which point we could be in for a complete change in the weather pattern and an end to east side thunder. This is a recent 'future-cast development' though, so at this point looks best to take it as it comes.


In regard to tropical activity, nothing big showing up in guidance (yet) other than that there is a noted area in the mid-South Atlantic which could end up crossing the Yucatan, but at this point pure speculation. Guidance nowhere is showing anything strong to form, but more could be on the way. We should be entering a more active tropical period though in the coming days as we enter August, although 'more active' is relative to what we have now which was close to zip. Guidance shows more energy coming off Africa, but nothing close to home. This too though, changes off and on , but no true 'threats' worth noting are being speculated even out to 10 days.

Camera lens fogs up with moisture locked inside due to humidity level changes taking from a cool inside place to warm moist outside place. Cape Canaveral on Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorms Occurring Now and into Early Evening

12:45pm Radar and lightning depictions are showing lightning strikes with all activity over the Northern 1/3 of the state. Sea breeze related activity has yet to get started. Drier air now in place across Central will be the make or break question later today as outflows and boundaries from the north could 'dynamically' provide the necessary last ingredient for some stronger storms toward Brevard and Martin/St Lucie/or Indian River County near the Lake/Sea Breeze boundary

TODAY: Continuing to play hopscotch with the fickle mid-level trough and now surface boundary across North Florida with the 700mb trough shown (and forecast to) inch just a bit further South and East today providing for better steering toward the east to Northeast. The factor toward Southern Volusia outside of the predominant steering is whether outflows from current activity will work toward the slightly drier air Central and meet up with the sea breeze front which appears will stick very close to the east coast today east of I-95 or near it.  The situation   raises an eye-brow of contentious curiosity but nothing definitive toward the red areas (namely Brevard), but the most likely of the three appears to be the Everglades area. Areas of rain showers are also possible anywhere but very isolated, as is thunder other than that shown in orange (but very isolated). Coverage looks extensive currently though, and mass amounts of rain cooled air could sink southward from where the current activity exists with no problem for activity to spark continuously southward through late afternoon. The question mark being what happens when drier air is reached? Will it mix out or add fuel?


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The 700mb trough should begin to weaken, as such so does steering as we resume a pattern not unlike the past several days, running the 'day by day basis' of the when and where game once again, but isolated. Most assuredly North Florida though as the moisture ribbon works toward Central appears to be the most likely zone, thinning out along the way.

Radar superimposed with the 700mb (10,000 foot above ground level) features shows dry air all of Central South 

MEANWHILE: The ECMWF model shows at least two disturbances (and has been for two days) to roll westward along the Southern Atlantic, first toward the Puerto Rico region toward Florida but that 'track' of this wave changes. The more pronounced item is still further to the east yet still half way to Africa at least. One shown to stay south, with the later shown to curve more WNW-NW with time in the general direction of the SE U.S. We should be hearing about both of these for the next week to 10 tens (and possibly yet another) in some form or another, with a 'storm name' possibly emerging in the next 4-7 days. 

Same Old Story, Different Hat

Same old story - "It might rain here or there but not everywhere. But where is anywhere? Somewhere"

Chance of Isolated Thunder after 4:30pm (Until?)

Moisture from SW Florida where showers now reside should be able to snake its way north and east a bit through early evening in the lower 8000 ft with self-manifested by earlier showers themselves moisture higher up along the sea breeze convergence boundary Eastern toward Central interior by late afternoon. The west coast sea breeze is already pressing eastward as of noon time in a broken uneven fashion so timing will be critical factor today in regard to how, where, why, and when any storm (s) will or can manifest 

TODAY: Beyond the mud, the 700MB circulation manifested yesterday as an MCV (Mesoscale convective vortex) over the Northeast Gulf has opened up, and appears to be getting slightly nudge eastward as a result of temporary troughing further north as a result of a front that pressed through the Northeast States yesterday.


At the surface, the low level ridge axis remains across Far South Florida with low level moisture feeding around its stronger western periphery along the SW Coast and as per guidance will be pressing NE ward during the day. Latest analysis is showing sufficient moisture in place from SW Florida to North Brevard in the lower levels, but  above those twoard 10,000 feet it is quite dry in all locations except in the western Panhandle. The west coast sea breeze has already begun and seems to be taking off eastward faster than would be normally expected, perhaps due to the 700mb trough actually pressing east just a bit. In any case, beyond that mere speculation the greatest instability today is unevenly dispersed with the only consistency being just along the Atlantic Coast. Chances are, more low level moisture, hence atmospheric buoyancy will be lifted North and East as sea breeze circulations meet and squeeze moisture NE ward along the 850-700mb flow.


With those rough and sketchy depictions showing on models, some thunderstorms and showers should be spreading NE ward from the South as the afternoon progresses with an isolated shower or storm possible toward Western or Central Volusia, although that one is the big question. What seems a tad more certain is thunder and showers working as far north as I-4 in the Orlando Area and eastward toward the Eastern Osceola County area and possibly showers and thunder almost as far east as the Sanford into the Mims or even Titusville area by 6 or 7pm. This all being the 'worst case' scenario for those not wanting their picnic rained on.  


The graphic shows one general area where a stronger storm could exist due to down draft winds..a result of the dry upper levels cooling upon decent into the more moist air in thunder or even heavy rainstorm down drafts. Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, but any storm (if there be one) that punches through the dry layer on its own devices along converging low level wind fields  could put on a spectacle, then back trace southward beyond dark into Osceola County. "Could" being the operative word in all cases. The final 'could' or 'might' is thunder after dark south of Orlando. As noted earlier, all of the above depends upon when the sea breezes meet. If it is too early, all bets are off.


BEYOND: Saturday looks a bit like a variation of today with Sunday through Tuesday going up and down on the rains chances near these same locations as time will tell.


WEDNESDAY: As would be expected, it is summer and the dry air cannot last forever over Florida (one hopes).  Moisture only increases or varies in small increments from day to day into Wednesday but from there on out the GFS and the latest ECMWF (Euro) indicate a tropical wave to cross near Puerto Rico and arc NW toward Florida (previously the ECMWF was showing a possible depression but is now amazingly close to the GFS, which given that is a good 5 days away is sure to change several times if only over the weekend).


 In any case, per what is given today, increasing rain chances Wednesday but much more so toward NEXT weekend for a few days with two moisture surges.

Warm and Hazy South, Variation of Yesterday Elsewhere

 Taking the camera from A/C to warm humidity late yesterday to capture an image resulted in 'moisture on the lens'. This Cape Canaveral , Florida Arcus Cloud trended toward being a Shelf Cloud due to the close proximity of the actual rain field, meaning little time for outflow separation. Rain field seen bottom right corner of image. Thunder boomed with lightning very near by at this time.

Radar image from Tuesday is interesting. Note how activity hit the sea breeze over the Banana River and quickly 'jacked up' per yellow through red actuals (not drawn in). Most lightning was toward the Industrial Area and the Pads out at the Space Center

TODAY: Somewhat a variation of yesterday mainly north of the Pineda Cswy in Brevard County west toward the South end of Tampa Bay.  The better chance of storms, some quite strong to marginally severe along I-10 and other zones in the Panhandle toward Tallahassee and a bit east of there.


Further South, trough in the mid-levels dropped south just a bit from yesterday but is slowly loosing identity. The axis extends currently along to just south of I-10 but could drop as far south as the Beach Line by 5pm. Guidance is trending that way at least on the short term RAP model, and the GFS from 2AM seems to be hedging in that direction since the 2PM run yesterday. Based on the latest Analysis a good west coast sea breeze appears to be in the making dynamically speaking which would fuse eastward fairly rapidly not unlike yesterday, with the southern end lagging a bit toward North Brevard or even Central Brevard. For now for that entire zone, showers mid-day might be more in the making toward the interior but tough call regarding the thunder here (interior) due to the unfavorable time of day during peak heating when lifted condensation levels are 'normally' a bit 'elevated' as is the level of free convection. On the other hand, with the latter time of the day being preferred the further east one looks, the I-95 to US 1 corridor could be the better breeding grounds for thunder with low level forcing created by the coast hugging sea breeze. For now, It appears it will make little lee way beyond US1 up and down the coast.  Showers and any thunder will roll off the coast uninhibited, with a "Tail End Charlie"  storm possible near the Space Center toward Port St. John,  Port Canaveral and Titusville area across the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge. It is tempting to draw that zone a bit further north though, as short range guidance waves up and down north and south. In short, it appears it will all come down to timing issues so there is no point in musing further.  Further south, showers and maybe a rumble are possible to Sebastian in quick passage.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Haze appears to have moved in based on satellite imagery and moisture at all levels necessary for storm formation appears to be sorely lacking. However, the forecast office down that way and another office are watching the Lake Okeechobee area toward Ft Pierce to West Palm once again (where some strong to severe wind reports came in yesterday in that county).

BEYOND: Dry air from the North and South closes in as rain chances dwindle to negligible to down right zero  in an unusually dry pattern atmospherically speaking for this time of year except far North Florida toward possibly Flagler County. Moisture rejuvenation begins Sunday toward SW Florida working North and east into Monday when storms could form into Central Osceola County toward Brevard, but further North seems to be getting the dry side of the coin. 


Better rain chances yet still though Tuesday before Wednesday where better coverage in the 40% forecast range might be getting closer to home for most forecast offices..