"End Times" Front Crosses Florida - Prepare Now, or Else!

It's the End of the Awesome Weather Across
Florida As We Knew it as of
NOW!!!

TODAY: Clouds have entered the grisly scene as a frontal boundary marches  troops of clouds and weapons of wind, sprinkles : armed with intrepidly cold air : sweeps the landscape (as noted in the aerial battle plan below) (note, top image  is the impact near Pensacola, which can be seen from aloft in this image blow)

TONIGHT: Winds becoming W-WNW-NW at 15-28mph with some higher gusts earlier in the evening,  with the biggest temperature drop between 4pm -8pm. The immediate coast from near Cape Canaveral south could be close to 50F (or fall about 25-30F degrees since early this afternoon by that time). Colder of course further north and warmer south.  It will remain cloudy well 
in to the night.

2:30pm Front Position

FRIDAY: Cold in comparison to recent days, but like all "End of The World" Fronts this one too will prove to appear with a Boy Who Cried Wolf Bark worse than its chilly bite.  Morning lows near 48F on the A1A strip plus or minus 2-3F degrees from Port Canaveral and South but much colder north and especially across interior portions of North Central where they could drop into the upper 30Fs, with continued breezy conditions.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: So far, timing is almost perfect for winds to circulate around to the NE in sync with the sun having been up after about 4-5 hours of 'heating' above the cloud decks to manifest a deck of offshore moving stratocumulus clouds with light sprinkles possible along the coast of East Central east of I-95. The good thing about this is that beach side temperatures will rise toward the lower to mid-60Fs at that time as well, but inland temperatures could remain a bit cooler. Winds will begin to die down, especially after sunset toward midnight Friday evening.

BEYOND: Not much to say for the weekend. Overnight beach side A1A will see lows near 62F-65F all weekend with the shower sprinkle chances ending as winds become much lighter. Highs in the lower 70Fs possible by Sunday (mainly South and parts of South Central). The only proverbial flies in the 'anointment' will be the chance of Southern Branch Jet Stream Cirrus Clouds streaming overhead a majority of the time into early to mid range next week.  

In short, a return to near to normal seasonal temperatures, with clouds being the core issue in the afternoons through Tuesday or Wednesday at least.

Beautiful Today - Much Cooler Friday/Early Next Week

Today through Thursday Sunset As The Cold Intruder Crosses the State to the Straits

TODAY

THURSDAY: Cold front will be crossing the state, passing through Central between 4 -6pm and continuing toward the Straits before midnight. NW wind of 18-24mph for a time behind the boundary and much cooler to cold with Central's lows in the upper 30Fs to lower-mid 40Fs; 50Fs far South Florida. There is a chance of increasing cloud cover state wide from late morning southward into mid afternoon and very light rainfall could occur from this cloud cover, but highs could still get into the mid-upper 70Fs south of I-4 prior to frontal passage. 

FRIDAY: Cold in the morning as noted, with modifying conditions first along the east coast. Winds becoming north to north-northeast by early afternoon with increasing lower stratocumulus clouds advecting back on shore as they become NNE-NE and thicken a bit.  

The mid-level trough lags well behind the surface front, and could act as a catalyst for light, low topped spits or sprinkles, especially east of I-95 or US1 with clouds working west of I-95 by mid-late afternoon Friday as it stretches out across Central or South Central, especially near the east coast. Highs in the lower mid 60Fs, especially near the coast toward sunset as winds become more ENE off the warmer (if one could say 'warm' , waters of the Atlantic)

SATURDAY: Little if any temperature drop from the Cape and South close to the ocean over night Friday night with clouds potentially remaining; high clouds could be in the cards as well associated with the jet stream. Highs in the mid to upper 60Fs (especially South Central/South with a few low 70Fs ). Rain drip chances dwindling from the Cape to the South, but SE Florida may see another day of them.

SUNDAY: Recovering to some degree with near 70Fs from the Central Dividing line and South. Lows Sunday morning in the low - mid 60Fs east of US1 to A1A but much cooler further inland toward the west side of the state. Highs near 70F.

MONDAY: Similar to Sunday, as yet another mid-level boundary and surface reflection back the wind to NW-NNW and bring in more cold air TUESDAY through THURSDAY morning.

High clouds could be in the picture as well at least the first 3-4 days of next week, so not expecting to see much in temperatures above the upper 60Fs, rain free.

Continued "Warm" Through Thursday -Then Closer to "Normal"

Other than some pesky early day low clouds and a few patches of offshore clouds / light showers moving toward the coast as noted above, today looks like a repeat performance of Monday (So too on Wednesday)

TODAY: Morning KSC sounding shows a strong cap around 5000 feet again today with moisture at or below that level above which the atmosphere is primarily dry. Thus, satellite imagery correspondingly shows little in high clouds but rather the patches of stratocumulus clouds and a few showers locked below that capping inversion level.  If today is anything like yesterday, most areas north of the Indian River County line should dry out  but further south a few locations could see more clouds outside of low topped cumulus clouds in land away from the subsidence of cool area associated with the east coast sea breeze.

Highs today near the immediate beaches just below 80F and in the low 80Fs inland of the waterways (by not far) especially in areas that are most free of cloud coverage.

A Rare Mid-January Cape Canaveral Beach  Splish Splash  on Monday

WEDNESDAY: Outside of the chance of a similar of sorts scenario materializing over the course of the next 24 hours, little change in store .

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary associated with the huge jet stream streak and trough that has plagued the Western states north of it with cold air will be moving across the Mississippi River Valley region with the tail end of the jet streak preparing to pull out toward the east coast north of Florida as a cold front works into Central Florida after sunset. 

SW wind ahead of the front and a bit warmer, although some afternoon clouds and a few light showers are possible, especially along and north of I-4. With frontal passage sometime after 7pm south of I-4 after dark cold upon which air advection commences and the Party of Above Normal Temperatures  ends for quite some time to come.

FRIDAY: This day appears will be the over all coolest day in the next week for Central and South Florida. Low pressure (although weak) is anticipated to form along the boundary close to Cape Canaveral or just off shore with any wrap around moisture impacting mostly the area north of SR 46 in far North Brevard potentially generating showers and greater cloud coverage toward the east side of the state into Volusia County and mainly North Brevard. Elsewhere  it appears conditions could be partly cloudy to even clear as winds come onshore late Friday into early Saturday post sunset. Thus, coastal temperatures could be warmer near the beaches Saturday morning than on Friday morning.

BEYOND: A few more weak fronts could be sliding through in the next 7-10 days which will act to mainly exasperate a steady state of temperatures in the low to mid 40Fs inland and low to mid-50s right at the beaches south of I-4 or even SR 528. The further south one progresses  the warmer it becomes. Highs most days generally in the mid to upper 60Fs for quite some time. The overall picture seems that overnight lows will be a tad above normal (in general), but after noon highs a bit below with periods of high clouds becoming more likely. No freezing temperatures are foreseen except perhaps more toward I-10 toward Gainesville on a few occasions. 

 Oh Christmas Trees We Bid Farewell

 

Temperatures to Continue Above Normal Through Wednesday

Sunrise at Cape Canaveral, Florida in January (70F Degrees at time)

TODAY: Not much of a change locally within our current local and large-scale (synoptic) pattern. Closer investigation of model guidance, latest hourly surface observations,  and the KSC morning sounding at 6AM shows a low level high pressure centered well to the east of the state with the ridge axis  stretching westward across Central Florida. In the mid-levels the high pressure center (aloft) is only about 100-200 miles east of the state. This set up is making for ESE winds (light) at the lowest atmospheric level, then veering more from the south at about 5000 through 18,000 ft above those low level winds. 

Also shown is two inversions with each ridge axis. One caps off a very shallow deck of only about 200-400ft  above the ground making for fog (some fairly dense) nearest the ridge axis (Central Florida); the latter inversion is associated with the mid level ridge axis around 4700 ft. Above that level it is quite dry. Very little change in this particular set up is foreseen through Tuesday.

THUS: Some fog this morning, with rapid clearing by 8AM- 10AM. Highs similar to yesterday . There is a chance of patches of stratocumulus cloud decks appearing and disappearing in random fashion along that 5100 ft inversion located underneath the mid-level ridge axis near 11,000 ft from moisture trapped below either of those levels, especially after the fog burns off and re-materializes as a cloud deck aloft.  Otherwise, temperatures continuing to run about 7 - 14   degrees above normal with warmest overnight lows along the outer barrier islands, being surrounded by bodies of water on all sides.

The only change to occur into Wednesday will be cooler morning lows, especially along the East side of the state as low level winds begin to acquire a Southwest component (particularly Monday - Wednesday mornings); likewise, this will allow afternoon highs to become warmer in those same locations with less chance of a sea breeze (especially Tuesday and Wednesday) outside of any cloud patches that could develop.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Around the 17th now as when a front that continuously is being re-enforced but blocked from Florida because of the high pressure centers east of the state will finally begin to slide south. Guidance is split on whether that will occur on Wednesday night or a few days later. Most offices (official forecast offices) are siding with the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, but will hold back in this post from being sold just yet (as they have also alluded to). The GFS has been doing pretty good this winter in the 6-10 day time frame. Either way though, not much precipitation if any is anticipated with the front as most of the energy associated with it will have ejected into the Northeast States before the front gets here. 

Since the Jet Stream remains north of I-10, the boundary will again like those of recent fronts be shallow. North winds though could advect cooler air in with mid-upper 50Fs for lows and highs in the 60Fs (Central and warmer South) for several days under high level cirrus clouds.

Hibiscus Petaled in Morning Dew

BEYOND THE BEYOND: As has been the GFS trend, heading out into untrustworthy territory time, the greater beyond shows a cold spell approaching toward the 22nd; however, the GFS bounces back and forth and all around with this scenario and has been doing so all winter in the long range (case in point, a few weeks ago it was forecasting it to be quite cold around the 18th with highs in the 40Fs and 50Fs).

Warmer toward 80F next 10 Days as Frosty Gets the Boot

High clouds will be mostly streaming off to the east today, as low level moisture remains ample in the presence of a near shore coastal trough. The surface front that passed through two days ago is about all but absorbed by the high pressure off to the east of the state. Purple shows zones of isolated rain shower chances about any time, if they can move on shore as they are near West Palm Beach at this time.

TODAY: No more high clouds are foreseen to the west of the state as what is overhead some areas should be clearing out today, but low to mid-level moisture remains sufficient for yet another day or two of cloud cover to materialize around early to mid afternoon. Convergence along a coastal trough accompanied by instability (which is more pronounced in the south half of Florida than anywhere else in the country today but maybe the south tip of Texas)...might provide the fodder for showers. Whether they come ashore north of Ft Pierce is a different matter though, but best not to  "toss the rain-shower chance baby out with the atmospheric bath water"   from all appearances based on steering up through 10,000 ft from the SE before they winds well aloft become SW per the KSC sounding and latest Rapid Refresh model guidance.

Temperatures today and beyond for quite some time will nearly remain in the 70Fs 24/7 right at the beaches to near 82F in the afternoons (especially south of Ft Pierce beaches) and inland south of Orlando region. Warmest interior west side of the state.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Guidance is consistent with drier air in the mid-levels to move north ward from the south to southeast Wednesday morning with the drier air reaching Central around 12-4pm, which means less chances of not only high clouds but also mid-level clouds, aka, generally even more sunny. 

Although a stray, light coastal shower is possible in the wee hours before sunrise, it will be other-weather-wise much more sunny in the afternoons with perhaps some inland fog or low clouds early day given the moist low levels and time of year. Winds to remain ESE-SE for quite some time to come with temperatures well above average through January 16th.

Global Forecast System (GFS) long range model guidance is consistent now with a frontal passage on the 17th which could be the harbinger of an entirely new 'pattern' from the one we are just entering today. 

Whether that holds to form or not is too soon to say. One more day or two of consistent model runs will tell the story. If this verifies, we'll fall back to a pattern similar to earlier cool periods, but nothing drastic such as freezing temperatures has been alluded to.

 Entering in toward late January  or early February, if the jet stream trend on the GFS also continues, might need to be monitoring for severe type weather potential rearing its head, but until that time (if ever), looks like smooth sailing and great January weather as we approach the coldest time of year , one month after the winter solstice. 

"Hey bud, your block my rays"

After Tonight - Tuesday, Above Average Temperatures into Mid-Month!

Ref. Captions: Variable conditions namely along  lines bounded by 'green' (above) from 2pm today toward sunrise Monday as pockets of 'energy' (red "x" s) move across the state from west to east and depart by morning 

TODAY: Warm front as vaguely materialize prior to sunrise resulting in pockets of fog and low clouds, with visibility general;y in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range across much of Central Florida at 7AM. Per analysis, this somewhat of a 'faux warm front' is located near the surface across to north of the Beach Line, yet higher above ground it is much further north as circulation around high pressure to the east and across South Florida lifts it north as an approaching series of 'short wave disturbances/perturbations' in the flow yet higher above the ground from 5000 - 20,000 feet approach the state from the west south west. The net effect is not unlike two children with other ends of a 20 foot long  jump rope, with one waving his side upward sending a ripple effect to the child holding the other end of the rope 20 feet away.  (see the red "x" s)..those are the 'ripples' in the rope that are approaching.

""..... this "somewhat of a 'faux warm front' " is located near the surface across to north of the Beach Line, yet higher above ground it is much further north ""

LATER TODAY: Clearing and warmer by late morning, mainly south of the surface boundary. Muggy, with light southerly component winds developing. Instability will exist, but it is quite meager with Convective Instability (surface based, less than 1000 and Lifted Indices only perhaps -2C (compared to 5000 and -6 to -8 in the summer, for example). However, we could hear some rumbles or merely showers as shown in the orange parameters in the top image as a baseline, but not necessarily all inclusive (if at all) after 2pm - 6pm). Isolated if at all.

TONIGHT: Otherwise, as the disturbances/ripples/ "red x's" approach expect increasing clouds to move in and/or simply ''materialize out of thin air' after 2:00PM in various locations. Increasing clouds after 5 or 6pm ...with the best chance of over night rains co-existing along the surface (red) warm front as noted by the yellow bounds shown in the first image above. Some 'elevated thunder possible', that is..cloud to cloud or in-cloud lightning strikes, but cloud to ground lightning does not look likely (yet).

MONDAY: Most, if not all activity, moving off shore by sunrise if not sooner, with winds becoming ENE. There could still be some cloudy conditions across the state on Monday, with cooler temperatures as a result thereof, as well as a chance of showers south of I-4 toward the east coast side from Daytona to Ft Lauderdale in the somewhat still moist easterly flow, since there really is no frontal passage ,..but a very shallow one at best (like the previous boundary).

TUESDAY: High pressure building southward from the NE Atlantic States will increase easterly flow toward the east to east-south-east  direction through the end of the upcoming week. Better drying anticipated by Wednesday, January 9, with warmest temperatures away from the immediate east coast, especially toward the Western Interior sectors near 80F. This, in sharp contrast to 3  years ago,  when there was several bouts of sleet in some locations on this same date with highs around 39F. 

BEYOND: Nary a whimper of cold on the horizon until at least around January 18th (so far). We are entering the climato-'logically' (sort of an oxymoron isn't it?) coldest period of Central and South Florida though from Mid-January through the first week of February. So far, and cold spell (per se) is not shown to even come close to what has already been experienced, nor and if even so, last more than 24 hours. 

Interestingly, I just did a search on "oxymoron" in Google and the top choice was "The Orlando Sentinel". Oxymoron sort of is an oxymoron in itself, lacking oxygen to the brain.

Cloudy and Dank Most of the Day, Possibly Saturday as Well

Not too much to say. Looks like we are pretty socked in today except far South Florida. The frontal boundary to the south should lift north to Central and meander north south but never really lift far enough north to clear us out entirely until possibly Sunday or Monday. Under the clouds with lower sun angle  temperatures will vary little, with coldest air along and north of I-4 toward South Tampa Bay and warmest at the immediate beaches from the Cape South and across South Florida near and South of Lake Okeechobee.

Mainly Dry, Cool Nights and Pleasantly Warm Afternoons Through Thursday

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Weensy Storm Chance but Overall Cloudiness With Frontal Passage

Overall chance of storms today looks pretty slim despite sufficient directional and speed shear across Central Florida with the stickler being lack of a trigger and greater surface heating / lack of low level instability  Regardless, the frontal boundary will be sinking to Central at Prime Time

TODAY: Front will glide into station across Central later this afternoon between 2-5pm on the way to South Florida. There is a small chance that storms could manifest with convergence closer to the boundary, as the amount of bulk shear is nothing to mess with. Supercell and even small tornado parameters are showing up due to the wind fields, but getting a storm to go up otherwise could be a problem. To play it safe, a least we can expect some spotty drip drops around heading south through dark into South Central, although even those could be on the wane as the wind fields shift east and off shore before the front ever gets there, especially south of Brevard or Indian River County.

Frontal passage across Dead Central (as a point of reference) should occur between 3-5pm or so, with dry air intrusion commencing almost immediately. Dead Central, as such, could see rapid clearing an hour before sunset (potentially) and falling temperatures behind the boundary, especially between 7:30 -11pm going into the 50Fs with 40Fs, further south  upper 60Fs and 70Fs remaining until frontal passage.

SUNDAY: Winds NNW and quite cool, with highs central in the mid-upper 50Fs, warmer into the low to mid 60Fs further south, cooler north. Cleared out skies as wind slowly veers toward the north and eventually NNE after midnight.

MONDAY: Have a sneaky suspicion it will become partly cloudy to mostly cloudy near the coast over night Sunday night, such that so ..the lowest temperatures will occur potentially before 9pm Sunday night along the immediate coast before stratocumulus clouds move in. So far, it looks like mostly lower level clouds with maybe some sprinkles eventually spreading across the state Monday afternoon with winds E-ESE and highs in the 60Fs due to cloud cover. At least so far that seems to be the trend.

TUESDAY: Winds becoming ESE, but light, and possibly seeing high clouds move in with time with continued low level moisture in place. In short, high temperatures could be held down because of more clouds at other levels, but good drying is also shown at other atmospheric levels too, so hard to be for certain.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The next front will have partial origins from the Gulf, with only a slow sag toward the Central Peninsula as it aligns parallel to jet stream winds. It's going to take a while to 'sink in' but once it does someone could get very wet. So far, the GFS is showing measurable rainfall either late Wednesday or sometime into Thursday, but this could again manifest as merely cloud cover. Too soon to say but chances are all of the North half will get wet in some form or another once again.

BEYOND: Seeing as how the next front after today/tonight will partially manifest from the western Gulf region, it will merely act to recirculate air already present in the region mixed with some cooler air from the north  so no big temperature drop is expected. 

After that, only warmer air is seen to  the 9Th of January.

Gradually Warmer Through Saturday

Generalization of Temperature Spreads around 8:30AM This Friday Morning

TODAY: Gradually warmer today with light winds. Cloud cover increase most likely over the SW part of the state spreading NE, especially toward Central within an hour of sunset, although some patchy clouds could materialize prior to that time. Otherwise, fairly cool but not bad with highs Central Line between 68F and 72F and warmer into the 72-75F range far South Central and South, and cooler north in the mid 60Fs,

TONIGHT: Increased cloud cover should prevent overnight lows from falling as much as they did last night into early this morning as winds become light from the east and eventually ESE-SE duing the day Saturday. Winds aloft already coming from the SW under the shallow easterly type flow near the surface/ground level. Coastal lows (along A1A) , especially from the Cape South, might bottom out only near sunset, and even warm a few degrees by sunrise.

SATURDAY: Frontal boundary entering the panhandle with rain showers and some thunder 'possible' north of I4 toward South Tampa Bay, but at this point lack of instability and increasingly unilateral flow from the surface to aloft would prevent upward lift in the presence of lack of a triggering mechanism. Although, the region from near Brooksville south to South Tampa could see some measurable rains and thunder, areas to the east would be stabilized further under upstream blow-off cloud cover. Rain-shower chance though is present most all day long on Saturday as well as cloud cover.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Frontal boundary to slide south of Dead Central close to an hour before sunset with cloud cover remaining for a few hours with rapid clearing mid evening toward midnight from Central to South. Cold/dry air intrusion commences in full around sunrise, thus, daytime highs on Sunday on the cool side.

SUNDAY: Cold air infiltration (advection) accompanied by dry conditions peak out mid morning with little change during the day. Highs dead Central and north might be lucky to crack 60F, with low to mid 60Fs further south. Winds slowly veer toward the NE-E rather quickly ahead of yet another frontal boundary heading toward Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Gradual warm up into Monday and Tuesday as frontal boundary sinks toward Central. So far, it appears it will go nearly stationary for nearly 36 hours, accompanied by some cloud cover, but shower chances are not overly impressive so far across Central and South until after frontal passage in an over-running type set up. This will need to be re-evaluated as that time draws nigh. The region north of I-4 toward I10 might not be so lucky closer to and behind where the boundary rests, awaiting greater push from the north as a mid level trough passes further to the north by a good 36 hours.

NEW YEARS DAY: Looks rather   warm contingent on cloud cover with highs either way in the low-mid 70Fs if not upper 70Fs. Winds SW at 12-20mph during the afternoon.

BEYOND: So far, it appears that after Sunday morning/day..we could be in for yet another shift in the overall synoptic scale (broad scale) pattern for much of the United States, mostly affecting on the warm side the Deep Southeast , especially Florida into South Georgia and Alabama. Could see a good period of round the clock 60Fs and 70Fs "Florida". And, if the GFS trend continues, it would be potentially above average temperatures during the onset of the coldest time of year some years for Central and South Florida. Fingers crossed. Guidance has swung through all extremes from possible severe, to plain out wet, to near nothing happening at all. But in all cases, no big cold spell has yet to be foreseen to match any previous ones to date since the colder season commenced.

Post Christmas Frontal Boundary Marches Through

Pencil line of clouds  tracing along the cold frontal convergence at low levels extends well beyond this image to the SW into the Gulf denoting the frontal boundary which steadfastly marches across the state, plowing the land cape of warm moist air along its treacherous path

TODAY: Post-Christmas Cold front is  careening  across the state this afternoon with no holds barred. Severe weather not expected, nor nary a 'strong' storm. Although, there is some thunder and lightning here and there along that line, it is always possible a quick shot of 'strong' could occur due to wind gusts alone, thunder or no thunder since winds just above the deck are primed and ripe for the pickins of random gusts toward 45 -  55mph if one is at the right place at the right time. 

The southern orange line marks the most south I'm thinking any possible thunder might occur. As of this hour, even that might be a stretch if the Meso Scale analysis page is correct , showing much drier air across Central Brevard and south. However, it appears the moist air supporting the showers and thunder is moving along with the front it'self, so that it could be that further south it will be a matter of the setting sun and slightly weaker wind fields that will no longer support that aspect of the front beyond showers. In any case, would expect that no one location will see rain in the area any more than one hour if even that, some locations will see none.  

Otherwise, the best timing for 'instability meets wind fields aloft could be getting ready to occur in the next hour or so, which means a stronger storm or two could pop up along the line from Southern Volusia toward Central Brevard before the sun gets lower and the stronger and more favorable wind fields in the lower levels pull offshore to the east.  That would be from 1pm -3:30pm.

TONIGHT: Expecting a steady temperature drop across the Central and South immediately following frontal passage, with the most notable nose-dive across most of Central from 7pm -11pm, falling into the mid-upper 40Fs.  Lower 40Fs are possible away from the coast but all in all this cold spell will be less notable than the previous since 1) we've already had the experience of the first cold spell; 2) it does not look like it will be as windy with this one   as it was during the previous cold front 3) It will be cool Thursday but a warm up will commence toward late Friday afternoon in to the evening especially along and east of A1A up and down the coast as winds ease on shore, so it will not as prolonged.

WEEKEND: Cool in the morning on Friday but the immediate coast east of US1 will hardly be fazed as winds will lightly keep overnight lows up several notches from that of inland locations. Next front slated for Saturday afternoon,  appears so far that it will be more wet that today's. Much of Saturday we'll be dealing with  either from cloud cover and or rain with possible thunder as it stands today. Update on that aspect likely will be necessary, and suspect the rain chance might go down with time. Instability might be lacking too much to result in strong storms this coming Saturday time frame as well.

BEYOND; Yet a similar cool down and nearly as much as a gradual warming before yet another boundary proceeds through. We are approaching the 'core of Florida usual worst' as far as Central and South go for winter, which not always but most often is in the January 9th to February 21st time frames for consecutive cold day potentials.

Similar Conditions To Today on Christmas, Possible Storms Day After

Possible Strong Storms/Severe Weather on Wednesday Mainly Along/North of I-4

TODAY/CHRISTMAS: As anticipated, Southern Branch Jet Stream Cirrus began to stream in on Sunday, and such will likely be the cast into Christmas Day...with some holes here and there. We could see a small drying slot for a portion of the day tomorrow with some clearer breaks in cloud cover, but otherwise winds to remain from a southerly component as the atmosphere in the low levels continues to recover (warms/more moist) from the last dry/cold spell. Winds tomorrow might be a little less breezy, but otherwise the day will be meteorologically non-event-filled. 

Out side of the local area, the potential for very severe weather encompassing strongly rotating thunderstorm updrafts with  accompanying  tornadoes (some strong) appears to be in the lime-light for a very similar swath of which mimics the big Tuscaloosa Tornado/Birmingham Event of a while back now that made infamous that city amongst many others. Although the set up so far does not appear to be as violent as a history book maker, it only takes one long tracking violent storm to pack a punch. That would be on Christmas day of all times. Mainly from Southern Louisiana  Southern Mississippi/Central and Southern Alabama as well...and into the West Florida Panhandle to a much lesser degree.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: The same storm system and accompanying frontal boundary will jettison toward the Mid-Atlantic states to just offshore drawing, curling back moist Atlantic air into a cold air mass toward the "Storm Sandy Swath Zone" including other parts of New England. Could see some big and heavy snowfall totals in some areas between late the 26th through December 27th.

Meanwhile closer to home, the same front will pass through the panhandle toward Central Florida by late afternoon. Wind fields will become more aligned with the front as it gets toward I-4, but there will be some respectable instability and accumulated bulk shear as the boundary approaches portions of Central Florida. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center is watching for potential Severe running along a line from Tampa Bay toward Southern Volusia County, with possible stronger activity as far south as South Florida. Thus, the image above might be on the conservative side. It is based primarily on the GFS model which has been consistent in regard to at least where rain will fall, and South Florida has not been a part of it, at least not yet according to that model.

27th and 28th: Quick cool down into morning lows in the 40Fs wide spread, but it will not be as breezy nor prolonged, another low pressure system and front appears will be quickly in the making toward the coast of Louisiana once again.  By the 29th warm air once again ushers north prior to that morning. This is the day that Central Florida might be on the look out for a better chance of severe weather. Like waves come in sets in the ocean, so too are the 'air-waves'..this particular set appears will be on the wane after the end of the year boundary, with another yet too to follow, but details remain sketchy on what kind of rain impact another boundary will have going into 2013. So far, it looks like the atmosphere will not have much time to recover back from the system which is so far expected around or on the 29th, with a prolonged cool to cold spell in store, but again, nothing as cold as what we've just experienced; only it will be very persistent in nature with re-enforcing shots of high pressure moving across the state .  

'Winter Like Conditions' To Arrive Nearly to the Minute Florida

Old man winter came in with a blast.

Oh, how I wish, he...

Were a thing of the past!

Every time I open the door -

Snow, sleet, wind, rush in

Will there be more ?!

We crawl under covers

And hide in our heads.

Like Rip Van Winkle, some stay in bed.

See link for the details, no need to dread.

The earliest winter since 1896 arrives with the solstice 

at 6:12 A.M. on December 21 (EST)

http://www.almanac.com/content/first-day-winter-winter-solstice

TODAY: Warm right along the A1A before sunrise with the porch now near 70F, yet inland and even at the Space Center we see temperatures in the 50Fs. Regardless, winds becoming SSW by late morning toward noon time; warm, with highs in the low and mid-80Fs with potentially near record high temperatures in a few locations for the date. Previous record highs for this date indicated. All but Orlando seem to hold the chance to break it, but could come close to tying it. Per the National Weather Service out of Melbourne, FL:

  
DAYTONA BEACH  83F  1990  
ORLANDO        86F  1924  
MELBOURNE      83F  1974, 1971, 1946  
VERO BEACH     83F  1965

Otherwise, a frontal boundary will be crossing the panhandle and into North and North Central Florida into the mid evening and after midnight. Showers and maybe some rumbles mainly north of I-4, although a quick spurt could occur as far south as into South Central . Either way, this will be occurring after dark in regard to Central Florida proper and end by sunrise with quickly clearing skies on Friday.

Guidance indicates the front will be cross the the Canaveral to South Tampa Central Dividing Line during the official astronomical onset of Winter with a
vengeance. Having moved into South Brevard at least by sunrise.

WSW winds quickly shifting to WNW-NW prior to sunrise along that line of demarcation and shifting southward quickly into mid morning. Much drier air follows the boundary. Temperatures in Central, in general, will be warmer at 3-4AM than we will experience for over the next 48 hours.

Accompanying the drier and much cooler air (relatively speaking, it's going to feel down right cold after sunset by a few hours since it has been quite some time we've experience the over-taking of such an 'air mass') will be breezy conditions. 

Highs from Central toward North Brevard and north might luckily crack 60F with winds in the 18-28mph much of the day, especially early to mid-afternoon as heating aloft mixes stronger winds aloft to the ground all the while cold air advection (continued influx of cold air from the north) will be in full throttle mode from the NW. Continued breezy overnight as temperatures fall in the mid-upper 30Fs interior North Central zones and parts of South Central while east coast 'immediates' will be closer toward 43-46F. 46F has been a bit of a 'magic number' for initial cold spell outbreaks along the barrier island A1A strip of the Cocoa Beach area in the past noted historically over years of experience.  I suspect wind chill advisories will be hoisted for Friday night into Saturday late morning.

SATURDAY: The all out coldest day of the season thus far, with the afternoon potentially not reaching 60F north of Melbourne to Tampa and lows quickly falling as sunset approaches .  It will not be quite as breezy though with lows in the 30Fs range possibly as far south as the North Shore of Lake Okeechobee. Again, the outer barriers will escape the worst with the wind still up blowing across warmer river waters.  Could see lows along A1A near 39-44F north of Satellite Beach or Canaveral but colder in land. Highs in the mid-50Fs, although near the North Brevard to North Tampa line and norht of there low 50Fs are possible. Any warmth (the high for the day), will be for only an hour or two, even if we do crack 60F.

SUNDAY: Another cold morning with drainage flow beginning to become a larger influence as winds decrease. A1A from Canaveral South might not feel the sting quite as much this morning with the afternoon warming a few degrees.

MONDAY: Winds lightly coming from off the ocean, so that by afternoon conditions will be easily tolerable and approaching comfortable. This is Christmas Eve, with highs in the upper 60Fs - lower 70Fs.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Quite pleasant with light winds and highs in the 70Fs.

The next big storm system I suspect will be making big time headlines from the 26th, especially on December 27th..and the 28th. Impacted areas of big snows could be from the Mountains of North Carolina toward the coast of the Mid Atlantic near Eastern Virginia, Maryland, Eastern PA and SE New York right into the "Sandy Storm Zone".  Whether this system will be a rain or strong storm maker for Florida is up in the air still, but so far guidance has been consistent in showing the air mass over Florida will not be as cold following that frontal boundary as it will be for the upcoming one early this Friday morning. There is yet another front to approach though toward new Years. Guidance was showing this to be a severe weather potential  but has slacked back on that one a bit. Out put waivers from run to run at this early stage of the game. Too early to say for sure.

Noting/wondering off the cuff  if the trend will be similar to two years ago when the coldest days occurred in December, followed by 2-3 months of squall line like frontal passages with severe weather into March, but not that much cold air. Only time will tell.     

Doomsday Forecast

Look at the bright side.
It can't rain on your parade anymore after Thursday.  

TODAY: Transition day in store as winds become more southerly albeit quite light. Off and on clouds especially over the east half of the state with a chance of a quick sprinkle or perhaps a shower however
very isolated they will be, if any. Highs  inland near 80F - 82F and closer to the upper 70Fs near the coast except in areas where cloud cover persists where it will be a bit cooler.

MONDAY: So far, looks like we might not have the inversion in place by morning, so fog chances or low cloud ceilings, per the NAM guidance, look less likely. Warm, with a high in the lower 80Fs and maybe some mid 80Fs most everywhere with SW winds ahead of an approaching front. It looks like this front could go through dry, with only some increased cloud coverage by late day toward dark especially. Otherwise, another warmer evening in store.

TUESDAY: In appears the front will glide through Central positions between 11Am through 3PM, with Dead Central targeted for around the 1PM time frame. Winds becoming more west before frontal passage and then WNW-NW and eventually Northerly into Tuesday night. Cooler, especially west of US1. Those least effected by the front on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning early will be those along A1A south of the Cape and then toward all of South Florida and the Keys.

WEDNESDAY: Wednesday looks to be the coolest day around the clock, with a light east wind and partly cloudy skies. Highest in the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs.  

Another front is approaching perfectly timed for the End of the World as we know it.   

DOOMSDAY FORECASTS: SOS!   - At time, scheduled for the 21st at High Noon. Intense tornadoes, flooding rains, basketball sized hail, and constant cloud to ground lightning will be occurring as Seismic Richter Scale 10+ Magnitude Earthquakes devastate the landscape preluding the 100 foot tidalic surges of heaving ocean waves. 

The worst part about it? The cold front will be passing through at the same time, so those who survive will have to potentially experience the coolest weather we've had all season.  The plus side though,all things considered, is that the GFS might be overdoing the temperatures a bit too low as is often the case this far out in time. So far, the day after this front we could see highs barely cracking 60F with lows in the 40Fs to close to 50F at the beaches. Therefore, it is suggested to pack the parka with your survival gear along with the Life Time supply you saved of Twinkies (which went out of style according to the Mayan Prophecy calendars right as scheduled. Apparently they never foresaw Pop Tarts).

BEYOND: ?

Good luck with this one

Conditional Chance of Isolated Storm (s) Today, Mainly South Central

Satellite Imagery shows some clearing as of this 1pm hour, but more high clouds could threaten the formation of storms today. Any activity will be fairly isolated, with the best chances from Osceola toward Central Brevard South to the north side of Lake Okeechobee

TODAY: Without going into in-depth description per a wide variety of variables and descriptors which for the the most part will be meaningless to most, latest hourly Mesoscale Analysis (per the RAP model), indicates that under no uncertain terms that severe or strong storms are possible today given the degree of shear and more helicity today than yesterday. The issue is not that conditions are not favorable for strong or severe storms, the issue is getting them initiated. With high clouds cutting off the high temperature today, can we reach convective temperatures? The KSC sounding early today showed   the break point temperature to be 84F degrees, but high clouds and some middle clouds could prevent that from being reached long enough for initiation to commence. Granted, that was deemed to be such around 7AM this morning and conditions do change. The frontal boundary seems to reside now across Central to Southern Volusia county on the east coast and stretches off to the SW with little motion during daytime heating. The best wind vectors are in the red zone (mainly the north 1/2 of it), but they quickly fade away to negligible near the Big Lake, not to say that those depictions are entirely accurate though, afterall , it's a model and not necessarily absolutely true. We take what we can get and make the best of it.  Thus, there is a chance of storms today conditionally .

TONIGHT: The front will cross Central toward the Big Lake after dark, presumably with little fanfare once the sun is set and gone for an hour or so, with N-NE winds all areas by this time tomorrow. Chances of low topped stratocumulus clouds accompanied by sprinkles moving ashore mainly south of I-4, especially on Friday. Winds becoming very light as well.

WEEKEND: Very light winds with seasonable air temperatures. There is a suggestion by the GFS that we will begin to see plentiful cirro-stratus and cirrus clouds, especially north of Lake Okeechobee into Georgia and Alabama, so day time temperatures might be held down into the lower 70Fs.

THE NEXT FRONT has been popping up to pass through on Tuesday. So far, as of this morning, surface winds have been tempered back, as opposed to what was written yesterday. This will be a wait and see issue at this conjuncture though to see model consistency. Otherwise, a much cooler time frame could be in store beyond Tuesday of next week. With another front or two before Christmas mainly passing through with little fanfare, but keeping temperatures down, potentially into the 40Fs range for lows and upper 60Fs for highs.

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Today Mainly Along/South of I-4

Chance of Isolated Strong To Severe Mainly In Red Zone. Best tornado threat, albeit minimal, appears to be in the purple zones of Central and Far East Central down the coast toward Ft. Pierce. Further South, Wet Downburst winds are possible, with a much smaller tornado threat.

TODAY: Potential for a round two of active weather today. The difference today number one is that it is no mystery, per official outlets that there is a chance of isolated severe storms, some of which may acquire rotation.  

The largest threat area as of early afternoon appears will set up in the coming hours between 2:30pm - 7pm along the Central Dividing Line zone from Tampa Bay toward Cape Canaveral. This is oft the favored zone when the most buoyant and unstable atmosphere resides over the South Half of the state, and the strongest wind shear resides over the North half of the state, with the intersect of both conditions favorable for strong storms residing where they overlap.  

Here is a depiction of the jet stream winds today.

Additionally, the Bulk Richardson Shear values (BRN) noted on the Storm Prediction Center's mesoscale analysis page indicates that conditions for rotating thunderstorms (supercells) could occur in the red area, but most likely in the purple zone. Thus, the higher tornado risk, especially in areas where larger cloud breaks and heating occur near the east coast where either a light sea breeze or 'river breeze' could occur from north to south underneath deep westerly shear aloft, most noted near Central Florida. It is that area under the jet where the BRN shear and Effective Shear is in place which abets in severe storms being realized. Only one thing will be needed. An actual storm to go up.  

The greatest instability is being noted in SE Florida however, an area infamous for throwing curve balls.  There is also a chance of hail in Central. The final clincher for Central is a sharp moisture gradient at 10,000 ft aloft, where 700mb moisture drops off significantly north of the Beach Line toward I-4. 

This mid level boundary (gradient) could act as an impetus for storm initiation in advance of the approaching upper level impulse later this afternoon. Any storm that either manifests along the boundary or rolls off to the right or left and crosses it could have unpredictable results. Point blank, if nothing else, today could be a day summed up with "expect the unexpected, especially after 4pm through 7pm time frame." That could mean nothing happens, or a few tricks could be up this pattern's sleeve, such as 'left movers' as opposed to the usual deviate right moving storms in severe weather situations in Florida. Time, as always, will tell.


There are, however, several 'flies in the ointment' at the current time if the Analysis Page which pulls off the RAP model is correct. That is to say, Lifted Parcel Levels as well as the level of free convection are quite high at this time  (which is unfavorable for tornadoes, per se). A factor playing  for isolated activity is the amount of Convective Inhibition working against the updraft instability in those same areas. Any storm that can manifest and punch through could see rapid growth into a strong storm with very little warning or notice.  For all purposes, that would hold off storm formation early on, but this 'could' quickly change later today. But if not, perhaps it will be a dud over South Florida altogether and much of Central.

Further south, there's bound to be some remnant boundaries laying around down there after early morning activity has now cleared the area setting up all sorts of gradient boundaries. 

In the long run though, any strong to severe storms that manifest will likely be a result of small (mesoscale) boundaries combining from early day to day activity that has since moved out.

Further north of I-4,the mid levels appear to dry for storms to manifest, above an environment of lower dewpoints, and thus less buoyant air near the ground,  ( lower convective available potential energy (CAPE)). Not to say conditions could not change later on today though.  It is noted that some discussions are referring to a boundary lying around far South Central, but that appears to possibly have lifted further north ahead of an approaching upper level 'impulse". The effect of that impulse can be seen in the above image with storms out over the SE Gulf of Mexico...moving toward the ENE.  Not unlike yesterday, high clouds could move in more abundantly in advance of approaching rain showers.

WEDNESDAY: The shows not over until it's over, and the frontal boundary will not be passing through Central into South Florida until after sunset Wednesday (the actual temperatures in the panhandle this hour are in the lows 50Fs  whereas the dew-points alone across the south half of the state are now near and above 70F!)

 As such, rain chances could manifest, with some heavier rainfall totals still remaining up through sunset Wednesday, particularly on a synoptic scale level across Central Florida just about anywhere, not so much it seems across South Florida (yet).

BEYOND: Temperate drops behind this front are not expected to be significant, with a quick shift of wind to the north and NE on Thursday afternoon. Low topped showers and flat topped alto-cumulus clouds, especially across the coast could work in especially later Thursday through Saturday.

OTHERWISE: There has been a trend for a potentially very windy day coming up this time next week behind the next system yet to form. There has been some consistency in the GFS for wind advisory conditions not associated with storms. The trend so far for much cooler to colder air keeps popping up as well after the 18th, but has shifted from one extreme to the other heading to the great beyond of Christmas Day. Hold fast, it could be a cool to cold week preceding Christmas yet still.

A Strong to Severe Storm Potential Exists Today - Otherwise, Rain Seems Likely

Latest visible satellite Imagery shows storms over the Gulf progressing ENE-ward toward mainly Central Florida. Although that activity will not hold together per se as a unit, the 'energy' causing them should be crossing parts of North Central to South Central after 2-3 pm today with rapid changes forthcoming if that is indeed to be the case

TODAY: Changes already in place today with a southerly, long-awaited  wind directional component. It has been quite some time since there has been  southerly to southwest winds across the state, where easterlies to northerlies have been predominant since early November. As such and as noted yesterday, moisture is expected in increase rapidly by mid afternoon across Central across the boards around the outer periphery of the surface ridge axis which appears will remain across far South Florida one more day (which might off set storm potential in that area).

Otherwise, I've ignored the NAM model as it did not initialize well at all from this perspective of current activity on satellite imagery (above). The GFS and RAP (former RUC) are both showing several low to mid-level 'swirls' of vorticity (energy) to be in place across Central later today, with the GFS showing vertical velocities up through the 18,000 foot level over Dead Central from mid afternoon through early evening. As such, and if that holds true, then some rainfall totals of up to 2,00' could occur in and near the red zone. The biggest issue in that determination is whether or not high clouds streaming eastward from the initial activity to the west will offset (or 'seed')   downstream activity ahead of the west to east storm motions anticipated. Which means, clouds could stabilize the atmosphere and off set storm potential.

On the other hand, the KSC sounding shows respectable turning of height with winds, and the Energy helicity index which compounds helicity with unstable overall atmospheric conditions measured in CAPE *(convective available potential energy) coupled with continued influx of that parameter from the south under any cloud canopy could result in strong to severe storms regardless. So for all purposes in the blog post, will throw this in although no official outlet such as the Storm Prediction Center or The National Weather Service is stating such. Just never know. Otherwise, there is a potential for some unusual for this time of year rainfall to occur across mainly the red/ and / or but not all inclusive orange zone in the image above.

BEYOND: Tuesday and Wednesday get dicey. The SPC has already placed Central in a potential for severe weather on Tuesday as noted. There will likely be timing issues combined with reboot, destabilization requirements after today's activity regardless of which form it takes,  which might need to be resolved after today's anticipated activity. Chances are it will all be continent upon a vorticity max crossing over on Tuesday (upper level energy when stated generically), regardless of other situational atmospheric circumstances. 

This forecast pictured below was formulated around 1 AM last night, and will likely be updated by the time this post is completed, as it is scheduled to be by 12:30PM EST today. (* SPC just updated and maintains this zone shown for tomorrow).

Outside of any severe potential either today or Tuesday the bigger story is rainfall potential accompanied by rather strong wind gusts regardless of whether the heavier rain is being generated by a thunderstorm (or not). 

Any storms to arrive today, do note, will not necessarily be 'easily observable upon approach' except perhaps the first activity of the day, but could be buried in cloud cover, with only a darkening toward the westerly direction as the activity gets close to one's proximity. So, if you have a good radar source on line or on TV and plan to head out, now might be a good period of days to accommodate them.

The GFS and to some degree the latest RAP model run are showing rainfall exceeding 1" today particularly over the Barrier Islands for a reason unknown; that has been the trend now in successive model runs over the past 24 hours as well. In any case, here is an 'example' image of total rainfall between today and when the show is over sometime later Wednesday.

Note the purple which would indicate at least 3" of rain over
East Brevard and Indian River Counties. I cannot really see any sound
basis for selecting that area, but the GFS insists. Perhaps it is using  data points of MLB and KSC
being ingested into the model as a framework of determination.  

THURSDAY: Up until Thursday, a frontal boundary appears will be 'somewhere' across parts of Central, possibly wavering south then back north  then back south..from Tuesday evening if not before . This means more disturbances riding along the boundary could result in more storms, rains, or merely cloud coverage; nothing is set in stone other-than rain chances are high with emphasis on 'chances'.

By Friday the frontal activity should have cleared as onshore flow quickly replaces said activity  and temperatures will return to much of what we experienced earlier this week, with stratocumulus clouds and possible quick spits of light rain near the coast for a day or two. Could be a bit breezy along the coast as well for a few days, but nothing unusual as lows return to the mid-upper 60Fs and highs in the low-mid 70Fs prevailing near the coast, cooler inland over night.