Potential for Rotating Storms Remains - Monitor Bulletins, TV Stations, Weather Radio

Note the red "I" indicating the surface circulation of Invest 91L. The red area indicating best combination of convergence and divergence should move tandem with the center as it llifts to the NNE-NE through Thursday and approaches the Panhandle or Big Bend (depending on the chosen model) 

TODAY: Thinking is not much different than yesterday although there could be a broader scattering of showers and some thunder away from clouded up areas. Showers are already underway as this is being typed. Today's post will not focus on the current weather so much as the 'potential' for heavy rainfall mainly near I-4 and north as well as 'tornadic' or 'rotating storms' capable of producing wind gusts to 60mph on Thursday. But, this still remains questionable.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY: There are two general camps model guidance is hedging on regarding what happens in the Gulf, for what happens there will determine what is to happen over Florida and where it does what.

One camp has the low moving more toward the north. The latest HRRR model which is High Resolution and short term shows that to be the case as does  the NAM model. If this does occur, the chances of severe like weather in any form, including flood potential in vulnerable areas goes to nearly zero. 

The latest HRRR seems in fact to be developing something akin to a Tropical Storm with a well formed eye in the next 18 hours. With that said, this post will focus on the other scenario indicated by the Canadian Model (in regard to direction), the ECMWF Operational and Ensemble Suite combined with the latest morning GFS which is just being made available on the internet as this is being typed. So far, the latest GFS in the ' general details' agrees with the Euro to not develop the system much more but rather keeping the system rather 'open' in the mid-upper levels which seems more rational given how right-handed the storm is. The center is in fact shown to be in rather dry air at this time.  Thus, the track (if this continues to be the case) of the surface low is not nearly as important as noted previously as the weather that will or could occur to the 'east through nearly south of the low center' as it tracks according to those models toward the Big Bend region north of Cedar Key.

TONIGHT: Per the GFS, some 'inclement weather' could begin to impact the SW Florida coast as soon as post sunset today. Latest radar is showing some rather strong storm cells well SW of this region as I write only making slow progress. The biggest issue occurs well after midnight and then more so after 10AM Thursday morning as the mid-level low 'expands' and sends a mid-level like 'warm front' northward coincidental with a low-level jet like feature. The end result of that boundary is to :

1.  keep S-SE surface winds intermingled with increasing midlevel SSW-W winds of up to 6o kts not far overhead, turning with height; as well as to .....

2. draw unstable air northward toward Central Florida. Guidance continues to indicate the heaviest rainfall along and near of I4 but there is very little convective instability in that area. Thus, a low Cape/High Shear environment exists there per this model run for low topped supercells as well.

The secondary additive 'factor' to be watching is along and near the  Central Dividing Line running in this case from Near Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral/Port St. John where the GFS (Global Forecast System) shows decent instability creeping northward after sunrise making it to about that line. That is, if in fact the instability performs as shown.

This would :
1.set up a local mesoscale dynamic boundary overlaid by increasing directional wind shear  as well as speed shear from 2000-15,000 overtop that unstable air mass at the lower levels;

2. Thus, resulting in Bulk Shear values exceeding at times 50kts in a narrow corridor across a part of Central and high very high helicity values, both of which are conducive for rotating thunderstorms. 

That is, if the latest GFS stands correct.... Noting that these values are in INCREASE since the previous post, thus upping the ante on the potential tornado threat from mini-supercells if not full blown ones at the rate that model is going which looks a bit far fetched, but embedded as well in cloud coverage. 

This is a worst case scenario though, at least so far. It is worth nothing that storm activity will likely be embedded in perhaps light rain and extensive cloud coverage, and thus will not be easily discernible to see from a distance with the naked eye. Man your TV radar stations.

Again, all hinges on what the low in the Gulf eventually does. Interestingly, another player in the puzzles is high pressure aloft to form east of Florida which increases the 500mb pressure gradient. That is a new player likely responsible for the increase in bulk shear through all the midlevels of the atmosphere since the previous model runs, and is suspect.

WIth bulk shear from 2000 ft THROUGH 10,000ft like this image indication , you
"Don't  Mess Around with Big Bad LeRoy Brown"
Values such as these are shown to develop shortly after sunrise and spread across the state from SW to NE perfectly timed with 2pm peaking heating hours on Thursday by which time instability will have crept as far north as the Central Dividing Line.Again, will any of 'this' actually ever evolve as the model shows? It's not worth the risk to not mention at this point.

The Red and Blue wind barbs indicate the change in wind directions at two various levels. With barbs like that over the state (note, for example, much weaker winds well out in the Atlantic in the image above as opposed to 45 kts in one direction and 35 to 45kt in another direction overlaid across Central Florida. The "Red Box" would indicate a Tornado Potential Zone for the entire period of overnight tonight through sunset or late afternoon Thursday. Beginning to the SW Coast and Spreading East and North with time

This post will not go into other values such as horizontally spiralling helicity values, but will leave a mention that the National Weather Offices are fairly 'impressed".

TAMPA'S OFFICE: "OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE BUILDING WIND SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY OF 100 TO NEARLY 500 M2/S2 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE 06Z GFS FEATURES 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT WOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS THE CENTER STARTS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEING MONITORED AND SMALL CHANGES TO THE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.


MELBOURNE'S OFFICE: TONIGHT..".06Z GFS INDICATED THAT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTH HALF WOULD BE MUST UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT A CONVERGENCE BAND COULD ALSO SET UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES.

A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALSO PRESENT A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

INDEED...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES BTWN 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI (300-600 M^2/S^2) ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE CAPE VALUES (BTWN 600-900 J/KG N OF I-4...BETWN 1600-1900 J/KG ALONG THE TREASURE COAST). A SOLID 45-50KT S/SE FLOW THRU THE H85-H70 LYR BCMG S/SW BTWN 18Z THU AND 00Z FRI IS A NOTEWORTHY INDICATOR AS WELL. FL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN UPDATED WITH THIS DEVELOPG WX SITUATION. "

===========================================

Do note the above discussion was written for the 06z model. Since that time, 

it appears the values noted have increased on the GFS run just now coming 

out.

BEYOND: As the low 'supposedly lifts up the east sea board it will leave a 

boundary behind with plentiful moisture making for a continued chance of 

afternoon thunderstorms, esp. near the East coast and warmer temperatures 

as high clouds and their coverage will be out of the picture through the

weekend. By Monday  the ridge axis lifts north to where I appears most activity will be over the interior, at least for a day or so.

If the El Reno, Oklahoma Tornado Had Hit East Central Florida

The areas shown above are VERY generalized

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjGUEWZ26_w

MAXIMUM INTENSITY

• The tornado struck mostly rural areas of Canadian County, leading to difficulty establishing

maximum intensity.

• Initial estimate of EF3 was based on damage to several structures, but the inferred tornado

intensity was an underestimate of tornado strength because of the scarcity of damage indicators

and very small regions of extreme winds.

• However, two high-resolution mobile radars acquired high detail datasets of the tornado.

• The University of Oklahoma's RaXPol, a rapid-scan, Polari metric, mobile Doppler radar, measured

winds greater than 295 mph at several times and locations within 500 feet of the ground along the

south side of sub vortices on the south side of the tornado.

• These extreme velocities occurred several times in the RaXPol data.

• Extreme winds associated with small, rapidly-translating sub vortices within the larger tornadic

circulation.

• These intense sub vortices remained over open fields and did not directly affect structures.

• The two most intense sub vortices with the highest velocities occurred north and east of the

intersection of 10th and Radio Road approximately 3 miles SSE of El Reno.

• The observation of winds well above the EF4/EF5 boundary from two independent rapid-scan

mobile radars lends confidence to the observed winds.

• Known damage indicators were compared to RaXPol velocity measurements; good agreement was

found between EF-scale rating and velocities above.

THESE TWO IMAGES ARE VERY VERY GENERALIZED TO GET THE IDEA. ONE SHOWS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PINEDA CSWY (LEFT)

AND THE OTHER IN THE ORLANDO AREA (RIGHT) TO SHOW ENTIRE AREAS DIRECTLY IMPACTED WIDTH WISE BUT IN NO WAY LENGTH WISE

(WHICH BE IN GENERAL ABOUT 5 TIMES THE DISTANCE SHOWN ,THOUGH AGAIN NOTE THE TORNADO WENT FROM UNDER A MILE
WIDE AS A SMALL VORTEX TO IT'S MAX WIDTH RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AT WHICH TIME IT WAS OVER MAINLY OPEN COUNTRY).

FAST MOVING SUB-VORTICES WHICH MAY HAVE RACED AROUND THE CENTER MIGHT HAVE BEEN RACING AROUND AT UP TO 180 MPH

FORWARD SPEED

"TORNADO ON THE GROUND!"

FOR 40 MINUTES JUST AFTER PEAK OF RUSH HOURS TRAFFIC  (BUT GOOD NEWS. AN EF5 TORNADO HAS NEVER BEEN RECORDED TO HAVE OCCURRED IN FLORIDA)

(MAP DOES NOT INCLUDE THE "KISSIMMEE OUTBREAK" WHICH WAS THE WORST IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HISTORY 1998)

  

Good Chance of Thunder Again Today With Heavy Rainfall / Frequent Lightning /Funnels?

Linear Arcus Cloud along leading edge of thunderstorm -
Banana River, Cape Canaveral , FL - Sunday Evening

TODAY: Tsunami of atmospheric moisture appears will be moving in from the SW portion of the state early on to reach the East Central Coast mainly along and  south of I-4 by mid-afternoon. Chances are this will not be fully realized until after 4pm near the immediate coast east of I-95. Regardless, despiste SW flow aloft, a sea breeze should be able to set up by around noon time if not a bit earlier but not make much inland penetration. The heaviest activity as usual would occur over a larger area as the west coast sea breeze presses eastward to meet the east coast sea breeze. In particular, if a more side shore component type sea breeze sets up the area near Cape Canaveral-Port St. John - Titusville - N. Merritt Island could get 'interesting'.

With that said and noted, and if that is what actually does end up being the cast, the heaviest rainfall would occur along and east of I-95 mainly from southern Volusia County southward to Palm Beach County area. Wouldn't be surprised with such a fresh influx of Deep Atmospheric Moisture exceeding 2.0" (perhaps as high as Precipitable Water of 2.3") that some 'funnel cloud like looking' clouds shapes might be noted today  although there might actually end up being  a  waterspout threat later today along the river ways or out over the ocean, but the biggest danger would be the lightning. Rainfall could persist near the east coast (mainly) until near midnight in some locations if all unfolds as suspected this early hour of the day.

Invest 91L shown near the Yucatan with weak inverted mid-level trough extending toward Florida. Watching that purple area for some bigger rainfall totals and maybe some 'water spoutage action?". 

TUESDAY: This day looks very iffy regarding thunderstorms coverage. High precipitable water values will be in place but am wondering if cloud coverage and/or weak & chaotic wind patterns won't make it a bit difficult at this point to pin-point when and/or where rain will actually occur. Broad brushing it for now, same goes for Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Still not much change in guidance for Thursday being the most active day, at least as far as the 8pm model runs went; however, the 2AM GFS really holds off on any significant weather to occur any day, with whatever comes out of the Gulf never really making it to Florida at all. But, based on very very close model consensus (The GFS and the ECMWF) with both showing a mid-level vorticity max to rotate around a larger low pressure area and then in advance of it from Thursday morning and across South Central to Central Florida during the day and into the early evening, a brief 'severe weather window of opportunity' presents itself. This is still a number of days away to be considered too seriously though. Regardless, if this indeed does end up being the case, it appears a tornado watch would be warranted with Hodographs and Soundings Looking like this once again:

NOTE that LARGE LOOP in the lower left hand corner with the location for that shown on the right. That spells major rotating thunderstorm (at least), a tornado producing type. On the other hand, this is all contingent on whether or not that vorticity max alluded to in the above paragraph is actually 'For Real".

BEYOND: With all that has been said, the extended into Friday and beyond is contingent upon what is to occur (or not occur) on the Thursday time frame. If the last GFS is correct in holding back any type of 'system' crossing the state (noting the ECMWF is still quite adamant of a 'center' crossing near I-4 to just north of it ...) there will still remain the chance of afternoon activity and greater cloud coverage with daytime heating into at least Saturday if not longer, with a 'settling in' of a more summer like sea breeze pattern evolving, favoring the interior and east side of the state. Another trough again is forecast to suppress the Atlantic High pressure ridge axis across the state to somewhere across the Lake Okeechobee area making for a SW-W steering currents aloft for late day east coast storms from isolated to scattered.

It is with deepest regards that HSD extends condolences to 3 highly acclaimed Storm Study Entrepreneurs that passed away during the recent unusual tornadic event near Oklahoma City a few days ago. 

Pattern Change! - "Pandora's Box of Adverse Weather Watches" Later in the Week?

PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCED LATE SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA. See notes above.

TODAY: The last post was Saturday a week ago which referenced the chance for a prolonged period of easterly winds, after a severe thunderstorm warning on the prior Thursday and then a rocket launch on Friday. On shore winds with periods of showers (mainly South Central and South Florida and toward the west side of the state (most notably yesterday) was the rule for several days. That pattern began to break down late Saturday and continues to break down as this is being typed. Note the light wind this morning.

High pressure to the east of the state is retreating to the east as a frontal boundary (which resulted in the Oklahoma City tornado traffic fiasco the other day, see images at end of post) progresses east but will never clear Florida.  Meanwhile, a broad and somewhat disorganized area of low pressure is to organize slowly over the next 48 hours in the Bay of Campeche with somewhat of a mid-level 'like' inverted trough to become more developed across the Central Florida region as noted above heading into Wednesday. (surface features will be a bit different). Now that we are caught up to the current time:

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: The short of all of this for today through Tuesday:  Better chances of thunderstorms as opposed to rain showers from early-mid afternoon, possibly lingering to well after dark as they decay after sunset. Steering currents today are already on the shift from west to east but very light and will unlikely be able to combat the east coast sea breeze, at least until early evening. Increasing moisture from the South could result in a number of showers and thunderstorms (mainly away from the immediate coast) although thunder might be audible from there. More likely some showers might be able to go up along the east coast sea breeze as it develops toward noon and onward making slow westward progress before meeting up with similar conditions from the west by mid-late afternoon over the interior. With a slow eastward push aloft, some of this activity might be able to make it to the immediate east coast just about anywhere along the Florida east coast by evening (or earlier toward South Florida) as the east coast sea breeze retreats back to the east coast.  Do note  that invariably each day will vary from one to the next so the "Day by Day" forecast blog post rule will apply through the week. Severe storms are not expected although a Special Weather Statement or two might become necessary for some stronger wind gusts and possibly some local flood statements due to slow storm motion and accumulating resultant rainfall.  

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: This is the most potentially volatile period as it stands this morning for a variety of reason which will only be briefly spelled out this morning due to the 'yet to develop' situation that has been captured by virtually all the forecast models in some form or another.

For today, I'm discounting the Canadian Model which shows a strong tropical storm moving into the Florida Big Bend later in the week.

Although, the 2AM (EDT) GFS is showing a Sub-tropical depression like low pressure area moving across the I-4 (which will be noted in imagery below).  The overall consensus though is for not one but two main areas of low pressure to cross the state from Central to North Central Florida from sometime overnight Wednesday toward Friday (with possibly smaller imbedded impulses as well). Timing might never be pegged down exactly but we'll spell out a few things that have been fairly consistent, then from that point we will be able to see how well our forecast models end up verifying in the coming days ahead.
===================================================================
1. A sub-tropical like low or series of lows (Perhaps a depression) will eject ENE-NE from near the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula toward Florida, highlighted and finalized by a more organized one at which point the 'show will be over'. It is the earlier stages of development of that final 'low' that is of most concern regarding a window of opportunity for brief tornadic/mini-supercell 'spin ups'. So far that window has been showing up from SW-W Florida and extending eastward and NE around the Wednesday-Wednesday night time frame into Thursday. Images below :

PRELIMINARY HEADS UP JUST IN CASE: The red box would be perhaps a tornado watch area with Flood watches as well being hoisted on the late Wednesday time frame. The lower left image is a depiction of the curvature of winds with height. Large looping hodographs would favor the tornado potential  which at this point is indicated by the red box above with other notes. Although that hodograph is not 'large' it is looped and it does get more 'interesting' toward a portion of South Central to the Beach line zone later in the period.

2. The more interesting thing that might be a fly-in-the-ointment is just exactly what if anything might develop as the upper level energy cross the Loop Current in the Eastern Gulf. The latest GFS is actually forming a weakly closed sub-tropical like Low pressure with winds of Tropical Depression to minimal Storm strength  Regardless of whether the system is named or not appears so far to be irrelevant unless we are in for a big surprise the next 72 hours. The fact remains that the GFS model has been showing this 'tornado' or strong wind gusts in mini-supercells (rotating thunderstorms) for quite a few days in a row now.

From the period of Early Thursday through Friday a "Pandora's Surprise Cache-Cash Award of Watch Boxes" might be in the making for accumulating rainfall of up to (dare we say 8 plus inches?) toward I-4? Do note, the Climate Prediction Center was highlighting South Florida just the other day for highest rainfall, but it contradicted another link on the same page that was showing further north (from what I could tell). The red area is of 'Overall " biggest interest as of this Sunday Morning for   tornado potential although all of the state mainly south of  I-10 will be in the cards of something interesting at varying times from late Wednesday into Early Friday.

3. To up the ante on a storm track which is shown by the black line above along that dashed line shown in the first image, the latest ECMWF model is finally available on this computer as of 4:40 AM Sunday morning. Noting that although this model is amped as the most reliable time and time again, it initially was taking a low into Louisiana  whereas the GFS has never once implied such a track.

LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO VORTICITY CENTERS (with another lingering in the Gulf)

The greatest tornado threat (if there is to be one) would NOT be under those lows but South and ahead of them..particularly as the first one moves in. The GFS and even the ECMWF have been 'implying' somewhat of warm front/cold front trough like system associated with the first low. It is along and preceding a pseudo-like warm front lifts northward from the Keys toward I-4 into Thursday-late Thursday  time frame so far that is most interest regarding that feature (which was reflected in the early image showing the hodograph).
So far, the biggest risk area begins toward SW Florida/Keys which lifts NE'tward to East Central Florida slowly with time.


4. GFS rainfall totals directly associated with those little 'vorticity maxes' have been tracking rainfall over a 24-48 hour time from of up to 8" (at least) for quite some time now generally along I-4 toward North Brevard County although there was a time when the track was across South Florida. Will this all change once again?  Quite possibly, although the time is drawing nigh and not once has the ECMWF tracked a disturbance across South Florida.

BEYOND: The system should be clipping the outer Carolinas just in time for another front and upper level trough which was shown in the very first image in this post to be pressing east. This will continue to keep the Atlantic High Pressure ridge axis suppressed across South to South Central Florida placing the state in a late afternoon thunderstorm / "Welcome Summer?"  Wet Regime like pattern up through the 12th of June which is a bit early, favoring the east side of the state for late afternoon thunderstorm activity.  

OTHERWISE: Discussions from a wide variety of forecast outlets are looking for an active tropical season. I'm watching the Northern Gulf and Florida particularly this year, not that it matters..but this area is long over-due climatologically speaking, especially South Florida (Miami/Dade) area for a "Big Named Storm".

TWITTER "TWEETS" regarding the other day in the Oklahoma City area  as the "High Speed Dirt"  flew not only along the ground but across the wires and the wireless.

Breezy This Afternoon, Drier and Mild Especially Beach Side

According to the NWS a wind surge came in toward Daytona earlier, this surge might reach the beaches of Brevard before noon time and then 'mix out'. Otherwise, very nice weather throughout the weekend and a bit cooler

 NOTE: The GFS (Global Forecast System Numerical Weather Forecasting model) is again bringing back a tropical system toward Florida the first week of June. HOwever, it has been doing this for nearly a week now only off and on in an inconsistent fashion, at this point it holds little to zero credibility although the timing is impeccable.

Delta Launch Last Night As Viewed From Cape Canaveral 

This Severe Warned Storm as it appeared looking west on the 528 West of Canaveral and East of Merritt Island, Florida on Thursday

The Storm Started to take on a
"Flying Eagle" Appearance

"Could" Be a Storm (s), May Be Strong, East Half of State Today

Changes are in the making. After reviewing forecast discussions, morning soundings from early today were not really favorable per them for storms today except toward South Florida, but suspect some changes might be in the making as I write since that time. Water vapor imagery is showing deeper moisture working into North Central which which also reach south Florida later today accompanied by potential outflows from the North If and only if storms manifest toward East Central Florida ..on the other hand....

TODAY: A solid waterspout was noted by the Keys yesterday, as were some funnel clouds reports into Central and South Florida due to the near calm winds throughout the column or depths of the atmosphere (particularly South Florida) . That particular air mass has shifted out but may also be being replaced by one of more continental nature . In short, there is some rapid recycling of the airmass over Florida today best I can tell of a new nature. Morning  soundings might have been taken at just the 'wrong' time to detect the change (hard to say from an amateur's arm chair). Regardless, this would be a heads up post (just in case). 

With that said, chance of some storms, possibly strong moving in from the NW to NNW if not North (in from the coast) working south along the east coast sea breeze later today. Some of these could be strong especially if the can work off shore from near Cape Canaveral and South to South Florida or if one can latch on to the sea breeze front and 'work on it' heading southbound west of US1,.and along the south and east sides of Lake Okeechobee in toward Palm Beach, Martin, and St Lucie Counties.

Activity will end shortly near or after dark most areas.

BEYOND: Things appear at this rate to get   quiet for a while after today for the most part. Easterly wind will ensure in the next days which will also be a bit drier making for slightly cooler east side temperatures and holding more steady over night. Pretty much near normal. It appears this could be the case for the remainder of the month as well.

Chance of Iso-Strong/Severe Thunder Southeast Quadrant

Severe Warned Storm -Cape Canaveral, Hail in Some Locations Non-Severe,
near Severe Wind Gusts Reported

Above Image superimposed (left) with a severe warned thunderstorm on Saturday. 
AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A  SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND MOVING NE AT 15 MPH.  

  
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...  MERRITT ISLAND..

.COCOA BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT   CANAVERAL 

TODAY: Another chance of isolated thunder (iso-thunder) over the SE portions of the state, mainly from near Titusville or Cape Canaveral south to near MIA or FLL (Fort Lauderdale) mostly nearer the east 1/2 of the state.

There are   issues today with down draft CAPE  once again which could limit to some degree large storms, but those same factors (if they get going) could make them popcorn severe. So far, most to all locations near and north of I-4 appear to be completely out of the picture today. The irony is that it is that location where the better wind fields are that would support severe storms, but those to work their way toward the Magical Central Dividing Line running from the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay. Timing is another issue as well, as outflows, if activity from further south manifest, could advect favorable 'storm air' toward the North Brevard Beaches with an intersect over "Badges Only" no-man's land Space Center. I sent a badge request in last year to gain access to those secure areas but I guess they didn't buy it.

Surface based instability is higher than latest GFS and NAM are showing per the Mesoscale Analysis Page, but lifted index is lacking toward The Beach Line but the trend has been to build that parameter north to MLB or Canaveral. Overall, it's another day of cat and mouse in wonder if , and,, or when the needed parameters will sync together after and during peak heating (number one), and number two, if the east coast sea breeze can get going north of Vero Beach. That is the key ingredient to get the pulse strong storms to activate, at least while they are over land.

Without the sea breeze north of Vero, the stronger storms if any appear will be limited toward Ft. Pierce around the Lake and Southward. In general though, believe the sea breeze will get going around 2pm if not sooner, so should see some showers begin to generate. The models were having problems even up to the latest runs as what appeared to be convective feedback from yesterday's and last nights departing anomaly (which activated storms along the east coast from the Cape and South)  which could have thrown guidance out of whack. In general, the better chances of strong appear to be from near Sebastian Inlet and south at least as of this hour.

Hazards today near the storms would be lightning and wind gusts toward severe limits of 58 mph  with hail the better chance toward Lake Okeechobee and South Florida in general from near Vero Beach south to West Palm and inland a way. Note: The GFS favors most of Brevard, but as of this hour that potential is yet to be seen.  

MONDAY and BEYOND: Chance of thunder again mainly far South Central and South Florida nearer the east coast once again. Outside of Moan-day, a bit cooler and dry (normal for this time of May) at least into next weekend as it appears now. There is a very definite trend the continental U.S. is falling into so far the past 2-3 weeks, all part of the reason why this has been one of the lowest count tornado years in decades.

Interesting side bar is that the GFS is showing a tropical storm or weak hurricane to approach Florida near Memorial Day weekend but take heed, the GFS showed almost the  exact same thing at this time of year, last year.

Manatee Park Madness - Cape Canaveral, Florida

Is there a Chance of Severe Storms Today? Conditional Risk?

RED Indicates to Renegade Remote Chance only as of 11AM Today for an increasing potential for Isolated Strong to Severe Storms today after 3:pm  - 8pm. Heads up post only. 

TODAY: This post for pre-clarification is in lieu of the norm while monitoring a possible unfolding situation so as not to cry wolf. Latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis (next image which is one of many available) is showing some parameters for Supercell Thunderstorms (and even a tornado?) close to the state as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (that is what it appears to be) approaches the state from the W-WNW. Whether the most volatile parameters conducive for a very active day remain to the west or not is one question, and the next is if they are even valid. In comparing the time scale parameters using the 'back in time' tool, the current values now showing are much further east than previous model runs were depicting. If that trend continues, we might be hearing weather update forecasts coming out after 1pm today, Thus, only a heads up. The secondary option is that there will be a focus toward the East Coast from Daytona and South for storms rolling down the Sea breeze front where max convergence could occur, after 4:30pm or so.

Note the little red box for what this images is showing. In previous guidance plots, that supercell composite parameter noted by the blue traces was well to the west of the state, and the forecast of it was also well to the west of the state, yet, that above is the latest just out.

 Otherwise: It is noted that there is strong downdraft CAPE associated with the unstable parameters which would or could significantly stifle afternoon activity (as was the case yesterday) except over South Florida. Thus, nothing is or might not be as black and white as things might at first seem to be concerning today's forecast.

On one hand, there could be severe storms. On the other hand, if some dry air in the significant layer between the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and the Level of Free Convection (LFC) is really like as moisture starved as guidance is showing , there could be very little activity today or what does goes up could quickly wisp out.  BUT, any storm that can get going could be Strong to Severe today. Otherwise, warm and sunny through the morning and early - mid afternoon. Storms , if any otherwise, should occur after 4pm through to after sunset as late as 10pm (as lingering showers and/or cloud cover). Again, worst case forecast for today, a beach and outdoor activities one.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Once again, a chance of rain showers and thunder on Sunday, more so only on Monday for Far South Florida. Temperatures cooler behind the frontal boundary most notably in the afternoon hours. After Monday, there is almost no chance of rain until at least next weekend or nearly so.

Chance of an Isolated Pop Severe Thunder Today, Showers/Thunder through Sunday

Areas in Red are where there is a better potential for a storm to pulse severe briefly, especially north of Lake Okeechobee along the sea breeze and/or Lake Breeze and toward East Central after 5-6pm

TODAY: Early post so much could change, but guidance for the past few hours is fairly consistent so going ahead and sending out an early post to cover that potential for the time being. Convective Instability today (CAPE) is expected to reach between 2500-3000 this afternoon, especially toward East Central by late day. Activity further south might get started before this potential fully develops but breeze boundaries from both coasts could provide ample lower level upward forcing to generate some strong activity there. There was a briefly severe storm down toward Dade County yesterday.  

Further north, east coast sea breeze to get near at least I-95 into Eastern Orange/Osceola County, west of which temperatures could get toward 90F degrees today. The best instability at this early hour is actually moving up the east coast from the south over the ocean. The east coast sea breeze therefore could be potent later today, especially after 5:30pm or so as the Lifted Condensation Levels lower post-peaking heating hours. Air aloft will be quite cold enough for small to near severe sized hail (mainly away from the coasts), but wind gusts could be strong elsewhere in one or two storms all the way to the coast. Thus, we might hear some Special marine warnings being issued.  There would also be a chance for a renegade funnel cloud .  Thing to watch would be any storm that goes up along the sea breeze and works north or south along it, especially if this occurs over or very near the intracoastal just about anywhere. Some activity might eventually either work off the east coast later on in toward evening or upper level winds could spread a cloud deck to the coast for a cloudy sunset.

SATURDAY: Same locations could see a storm but further north as well toward I-4. So far, no sign they will have the potential to be as strong as today , but that could easily change. Warm again, mostly away from the beaches as the sea breeze sets in. Might be more moisture available in general for earlier onset of cumulus cloud fields to hold off the afternoon highs. In general, looks like another sea breeze activation day plus some lake breezes, mainly later on in the day.

SUNDAY:  A frontal boundary will be pressing down the state with most activity a bit earlier along that boundary toward I-4 or so, and a bit later as the boundary works south. Any better chance of thunder though on this day looks to be near the Beach Line  from Titusville to Tampa and South, especially into South Central and parts of South Florida.

BEYOND:   Dry and nice for several days to come with some thunder over South Florida on Monday. It might still remain quite warm on Monday inland, South Florida (again) but a bit cooler further north with highs in the lower 80Fs to near 80F at the beaches.

Remote Chance of Showers North Central (Eastern) , Maybe a Fluke Thunder

Image shows two lows. The larger synoptic scale low is over Florida, whereas that smaller swirl in the Gulf is progressing toward the east to east south east. Conditional Chances for noted thunder activity are very low,
but the potential does exist.

TODAY: Latest elemental forces at play for Florida as far as rain chances are concerned are waning with what appears will be the last chance of rains for quite some time to come. Latest guidance does indicate sufficient instability despite cloud cover for some storms today but lack of any boundaries for low level convergence is a big down play. What effect if any the swirl in the Eastern Gulf will have if it makes it across the state is unknown. Guidance is showing only showers but some low level parameters would support even a strong storm all things aside. The down play at this hour is clouds or rain cooled air further north where the best wind fields appear to exist and weaker wind fields where the best instability resides. Steering would be quite slow unless a single storm gets cranking and latches on to the upper level wind fields. The result if pour Lifted Indexes being coupled against strong downdraft Cape, which in many cases results in zero weather action.

Otherwise, strong winds late yesterday and last night occurred in Volusia County primarily with one gust at over 200 ft. reported at 67 knots while winds for instance at Port Canaveral were around 3 mph at the same time. All this due to a tight pressure gradient on the north side of the very same low now still in place as seen below.

Last night's short term model depiction

BEYOND: Winds becoming more westerly in the next couple of days with a few periods of increased cloud coverage as two moisture bands rotate around the much larger parent low which was near Arkansas. This low will drop south and east in the next two days making for strong winds from around 7000 feet overhead and higher up, but which as it appears now will pass unrealized at the ground but for cloud coverage at time making for cooler afternoon highs  and very cool mornings commencing tomorrow morning (Sunday) due in part to west winds as opposed to easterly mornings winds coming in off warmer waters.

Gradual warming noted first on Wednesday afternoon with only a slight chance of showers toward the St John's river valley Basin and perhaps a stray shower on the North side of the Lake Okeechobee shadow in St Lucie or Indian River County toward the coast.

Will be watching for increasing tropical moisture though as a vast sprawling high pressure area over the Atlantic could bring increasing tropical moisture into the state prior to next weekend and beyond which will begin to interact with the next cold front that will only very slowly approach the state after triggering rains and storms across parts of Texas and NNE-NE along the stretch of the front which might get hung up over the South Central Plains region. The next better chance of rains so far is not until sometime around Friday and Saturday when we  could see showers and thunder over the interior counties and near the Lake, but even that will depend on if high pressure in the mid levels gets centered over or near the state which would shut down that possibility.  

So far beginning Wednesday it looks fairly certain that near summer like weather could be in the making temperature and moisture wise or seemingly so for those near the beaches, with only afternoon highs and greater moisture being constrained for a time.

Another "Guess Work" Day at Hand - Where Will It Rain (or Will It?)

Image shows a misolow near Titusville and another off shore Brevard .
Little movement with those features;
The west coast sea breeze is showing some slow progression.
Atmosphere is a bit unstable
especially over interior Central/South Central

TODAY: Another guess work day at hand . Latest hour showed west to NW winds at Titusville and stronger NE-E winds just to the north on the North End of the Cape. Just south of that area toward at least north Central to Central Brevard as a result might end up dry today contingent upon motion of those small scale features OR if they suddenly fall apart. Otherwise, dry air is over South Florida but more moisture might be working into the picture. Stronger Easterly winds Volusia County and north should last all day though with rain, some heavy continuing at least for a time.  The bigger question is what will occur south of the light green line shown above? For now, will not play in favor of South Florida too strongly, but this could change working into mid-afternoon with no problem. Interior South Central to Central seems the best likelihood of rain receipt today with some big totals possible due to slow storm motion. Thus, localized flooding again possible especially over grounds that have already become supersaturated. There have been some huge 3 day rainfall totals in the past few days, if not hourly rainfall totals across many parts of the state as noted in forecast office reports. Interestingly a tower gauge a couple hundred feet above ground level at the Space Center reported a gust of 67 Kts or over 70 mph not long ago, hard as it is to believe, on the north side of the misolow (reminiscent of how the no name storm of October 2011 ended up only with less intensity overall).

Vorticity in the Upper Levels Over Florida noted might occur yesterday. It's not really moving much though hence the comment of 'very little ADVECTION".
WIthout actual advection there is not much affect of it being present 

There is a chance the area of North Brevard will remain dry slotted today, and even after that whether it rains tonight in that area will have to be left to be seen. On the other hand, things could change rapidly almost any given point in time. Based on the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Level of Free Convection (LFC) being, at least shown as, at quite  low levels this hour, if accurate, would require very little to get rain showers going heading toward mid-afternoon. Again, with slow storm motions someone might end up with gallons. Time will tell.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Most of the better chances at least of rain end today. A slight chance of rain tomorrow might manifest mainly toward the east coast from Ft. Pierce and north later in the day outside of any remnant early morning activity. Sunday it appears now must might be quite pleasant (at least as of this hour).

BEYOND: Cooler mornings notable Sunday-Wednesday with slightly below afternoon highs through Tuesday. By Wednesday-Friday all will return to norm, with parts of the East Coast perhaps seeing some of their warmer days yet this season contingent upon how well the east coast sea breeze holds off. There is still a shot a better cloud coverage though sometime Monday and or Tuesday but after that it appears we'll be almost scott free for quite some time in regard to rainfall with partly cloudy skies..

Two Options - Two Forecasts - One Day (Florida)

OPTION 1
Shows Mesoscale Analysis of a 700mb low though weak, over Central
Florida this morning partly responsible for morning rains. The Main Low
remains back over Louisiana. Trough connect the two lows.
 That 'low' over Florida at 700mb is mainly only a manifestation, or part,
of the same Low over Louisiana

TODAY: Difficult forecast as two scenarios are being depicted that could unfold. Depending on which one (if either) does, completely changes who will get what, where, and when. 

OPTION 1:  Thunder storm trigger in SE Gulf Moves into  SW Florida and advects toward Lake Okeechobee while slowly lifting north. Cloud cover is pretty bad today, so although temperatures aloft are colder today, not sure how much that will matter in regard to stronger storms being able to generate under far less than 'stellar' conditions than would be otherwise. The red in the image above shows a best guess at this early hour for where some stronger storms could occur. Under this scenario rain showers, though sparse, could occur about anywhere but more likely impact north and east toward Dead Central East Coast late in the day much like yesterday, only several hours sooner. 

The image above 'notes' that the low over Louisiana is expected to open up and merge toward Arkansas while the energy associated with it could drop south in to the Gulf and then eject toward Florida on Friday. This is shown in the next image. 

Otherwise, if this Option 1 pans out, there is a good chance of rain toward Tampa, Lakeland, Haines City to Lake Okeechobee with some isolated stronger activity, but the main mode of operation will be light to moderate rains.

OPTION 2:

The other option is that the faux 700mb low pictured in the other image hangs tight over the state. That combined with high pressure building south down the East coast of the U.S. could put the squeeze on the moisture and slosh it across main all areas north and near I-4 as shown in the purple and red. Any thunder would be elevated as instability is close to none in that area.

Further South though: If the low hangs tight the forecast for Tampa and Lakeland zones goes from good chance of rain and thunder to suddenly very little to none. On the other hand, the chance for thunder as shown above toward Central could increase due to circulation around ' said assuming low' which would change steering currents lat in the day to being from the SW-WSW (but slow) over Central Florida as instability could increase after and during peak heating.  In this OPTION we'll also downplay the likelihood of any strong storms out there to the point they'd be isolated so that it's not worth mentioning. There is a chance someone today could end up with big rainfall totals in this scenario. 

FRIDAY: Another Very Sticky forecast

FRIDAY: In this image is the new mid-level low in Arkansas with a pseudo warm front like feature composed of a wind shift line and vorticity streamers impacting East Central from early morning throughout the entire day. This means a lot of rain up and down the east coast particularly toward Brevard County.  Also note the black "X"s. Those would be energy pockets from the old low over Louisiana moving east toward Florida. By early-mid afternoon both the east coast features at 850mb and those lobes of energy at a high atmospheric level from the west at 700mb shown over the Gulf could mish-mash over the state making for a slosh fest. Time will tell, but if so, could rain almost all day Friday or Saturday.

SATURDAY: Depending on timing , Saturday could again be a mostly rainy day for Central Florida and perhaps not so much South Florida. 

SUNDAY: Latest guidance indicates the show might end as soon as Sunday now, with only a slight chance of light rain or a shower later in the day toward the east coast. Another weak impulse to pass over around Monday could generate clouds and some light right, but other than that we can close the chapter on this storm system's impact on Florida. Next will be the cooler air. Not 'cold', just cooler.