Late Summer Beach Scenes Photo Album - from Sky Sanctums

 

 

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Sky Sanctums: Photo Edition of Beach Scenes in Cape Canaveral

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Storms Possible Interior / West after 4PM

Cape Canaveral , Florida Sunrise

TODAY: A mid-level and upper level trough with colder air aloft is sliding from north to south down the state today. Sea breeze progression inland and cold air aloft with plenty of sun and moderately strong instability should be able to set off some strong storms today with tiny hail and wind gusts upward to 53 mph in the strongest (but isolated activity) as it works south and west and then meets the west coast sea breeze late today toward I-75 , with a strong storm or two toward interior Osceola County / Polk   and Lake Counties toward Ocala (perhaps).

SATURDAY: Much the same scenario although activity will be mostly limited to a line along and south of Cape Canaveral toward Hernando County and South (inland and west side)...and much of the Lake Okeechobee region and everglades, as the mid -level trough pictured above will by then lie across the Central of the state. A few early day showers possible along the east coast as well.

SUNDAY - THURSDAY: On shore flow and steering continues as high pressure now over the east central U.S. moves east and North and gets reinforced  This will mean little change for  the Florida east coast weather other than the chance of early morning showers, although there are some days early next week that it appears even that chance will flat line at zero chance as some drier air works in with low level ENE -NE winds during the afternoons. Most of the dry air will be limited to the mid-upper levels, with continued highs in the 80Fs along the coast and some lower 90Fs inland and humid ground weather.

TROPICS: Although some small disturbances and a formerly named system no defunct are in the works, at this time no models indicate any significant tropical activity worth noting in regard to the Florida or even U.S. landmass impacts.

Cocoa Beach Pier, September 5 at Sunrise

Walk and Bike Path, Port Canaveral Florida

Chance of a Few Isolated Strong Storms, Very Warm Today

"Twin Thunderstorm Towers in Brevard County" -  West of Cape Canaveral  

Pileus atop a Towering Cumulonimbus Cloud
 (Thunderstorm) near Melbourne, Florida

LABOR DAY OF REST FROM LABOR TODAY: Not much change from previous post. Today looks like one of the better days for some coastal showers and/or thunder mainly very close to the coast north half of state and more numerous the further south one goes. Earlier start South Florida with a shower near the beaches almost anywhere from the Cape South after 2pm through dark. West to east steering is a bit deeper today per KSC sounding which matches model guidance. Suspect the east coast sea breeze will remain pegged to the coast east of I-95 if not US 1. Moisture convergence along and ahead of the sea breeze could generate some high based rain showers, but a spurious lightning strike is always possible, most likely after the 4-5pm time frame but earlier further south.

Some stronger activity could occur toward Dade and Broward Counties or over the Glades area, with another 'hot spot' potential along the Lake Okeechobee gradient wind 'Shadow' near Ft pierce or north end of Palm Beach County. Suspect that outflow from said activity will work north with time with any possible stronger storms to manifest toward Brevard after 7pm as conditions overall become more favorable as the Lifted condensation levels lower. This though, will depend on any previous cloud cover prior to that time that might put a damper on the dynamic thermal lifting mechanisms throughout multiple levels, at least since the NAM is showing pretty high multi-layer LCLs. Even so, some strong wind gusts could be the net effect with randomly spurious  "free air - cloud to ground- out of the blue lightning bolts" or even some wind gusts in late day rain showers. 

Thus note,  **lightning could occur well removed from the rain fields which is a big heads up for beach goers still in place to end their Holiday Weekend.****

Thunderstorm In Progress with Pileus Cap (tippy top center)  
Pronounced 'Pi-lee-us'

 

Notes as Noted. Best potential late day as west coast
 sea breeze Approaches the east coast

TUESDAY: Ridge axis will begin to lift more north from Far South Florida, with other factors remaining nearly the same. Looks like storms might have a hard time near the beaches South Florida but more of a chance Brevard and North  but isolated in fashion.

WEDNESDAY: Ridge axis is nearly over Dead Central. Could be some earlier activity around the Cape which then works inland during the day, with best concentrations north of I-4 and along the interior and Florida West Coast

Pileus Ice-ing Atop a Clumpy Culumonimbus  Cake

BEYOND: Pattern returns to being dictate by easterly flow, the status quo of  last month. Tropical activity is being hinted by most model guidance  but in almost all cases it remains well east of the state, but there is plenty of time for this to change, as we are now referring to at least 8- 10 days or more from now.

Increasing Thunder Chances THrough Labor Day Weekend

Slight Increase in Rain Showers and Thunder Especially
Interior North Central and North Florida west of the Suwannee River Valley Basin
And Interior South Central Along a Mid-Level Moisture 'axis'

TODAY: An upper low which has been near South Florida Continues to meander in that area. An interesting cluster of rain and some thunderstorm activity has been in progress since before sunrise, which originally started out on the north side of Cuba and has managed to lift north to the current position visible in the image above in the bottom right hand corner. It will be interesting to see if this anomaly amounts to anything more toward the East Side late today or tonight, although there are no indications that it will in the models.

Elsewhere, an axis of low pressure across across Central is showing signs of instigating some convergence on visible satellite imagery along and south of it but is not expected to move much more today, hence interior activity more likely today than the past few days. The other region to watch will be near the Suwannee River Valley basin toward the Ocala Area and into Lake County south and east toward the Northern Orange County far Volusia (west) region. Otherwise some mid afternoon cloud decks could start to manifest and cloud up the east coast regions in varying degrees to scant to nearly cloudy, especially by later today.

WEEKEND: The Low pressure troughs shown above will lift a little further north as a ridge axis aloft builds in behind them and into South Florida. This should help to increase the SW to NE steering flow just a bit more but with sea breeze convergence activity still at play .  Moisture south of those trough axis' will increase toward the Dead Central, or Canaveral to Brooksville line, if not I-4 by Sunday or Monday, and as a result, more mid-late day activity into the early - mid evenings is possible. Colder air aloft associated with the upper low could 'spark' off some stronger storms on Saturday and Sunday interior of the South Half of the state with an eastward drift at 7-11 mph. Net effect will mean a better chance of rain toward the desert regions, a.k.a. Barrier Islands, if not a better chance of over cast sky cover late each day.

MONDAY: The story though so far Labor Day seems to be the best chance of rain showers of all the next upcoming days with continued chances into Tuesday between another possible pattern shift.

"Happy Labor Day...and..."

TROPICS: Guidance continues to show a few tropical wave like formations as steering again starts to come off the ocean as has been the case most of August. But increased moisture could pose for a better chance of oceanic to onshore showers but this is still too far out in time to gander or muse upon heavily. Otherwise, a possible closed low or two is not out of the question, mostly off out at sea. The other things to watch for will be a frontal boundary and the first 'cool shot of fall' coming in right on cue from Labor Day to mid-week next week, which will most affect the North Central U.S. and east to the Great Lakes  south toward the Mason Dixon line (while the immediate East U.S. coast toward NYC and south might eke out on the 'worst of it'...meaning lows into the upper 40Fs to lowers 50Fs look possible in the aforementioned more northern areas of that most impacted area). Florida will remain south of the boundary though, and as it appears will behave more like a Florida  August than August had .

..don't get too stirred up over it.