Warm and Pleasant Until Friday/Showers & Thunder Then Possible Until...?

"Change in the Weather is About to Dawn"

TODAY- THURSDAY: Warming overnights and pleasant and sunny days ahead with inland highs in the lower to some mid 80sF and closer to 80F immediate beachside under sunny skies but with some increasing cloud cover each day as greater moisture works in from the south especially on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very vigorous and potent upper level low will form east of the Central Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. Though not sure of the exact definition of 'Bombing Out" , the bottom on this one is going to really drop out and pressure will be quite low. Expecting a vigorous QLCS type Squall Line with broken arching line segments and bow echoes with potentially tornadoes especially in Illinois , Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky but elongating out quickly into a straight line wind event. Eventually the event unfolds east to parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states and south. Much further south, Florida sits high and dry oblivious to what is going on to our west and north until Friday as the tail end of the front enters the panhandle.

FRIDAY: Again a warm if not warmest day of all, with SW winds possibly side shore south of I-4. Instability will be at about it's best since quite some time ago now with cold air aloft but with little in upper level winds. Chance of showers and some thunder though if conditions are ripe enough wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated strong storms with hail being the main hazard.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY: No point in going into specifics just yet, as the GFS is bouncing from one extreme to the other as to when the actual front will go through. After a very close call into Central it appears it will retreat back north and await the next upper level trough to rotate around the near H-Bomb Monster Mother Load Low by then in progress near the Canadian border. It is this front that is causing the bigger problem with whether or not it will make a thorough, scrubbingly clean passage or not. High pressure over and near Florida is reluctant to budge, Which will win out? Too soon to say.

As a prelim. rain chances again Saturday and Sunday, but cloud cover might become an increasing issue for wide coverage as well as 'any storm' strength though guidance continues to show ample instability (instant ability). Experience says the GFS has a hard time with instability over Florida beyond one day normally, though that is summer time norm for the model. Winter time? Hard to say how it will pan out, but suspect for now showers and possibly thunder one or both days if not even...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, what will the front do. latest shows the front never hardly clearing Florida but as a very shallow boundary, which has not been the norm for the most part over the past three days and 12 other model runs of the GFS. now showing possibly thunder on Monda and or Tuesday...Regardless...

FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 4 :  It is this week that is of greater interest as there has been a rather consistent tread of the GFS to show for a potential one if not two (as of the last run) severe weather events across the state...OR...it might just be plain much cooler than normal. So far, running 50/50, Either/Or.  

Isolated Strong Storm or Isolated Severe Possible late Today through 10pm

(See Below Discussion)

TODAY: Not much change to previous post other than the forecast surface low now appears will be more organized (stronger) as it cross along or near the I-10 to just south of it tonight. Very warm today with highs in the lower to even mid 80Fs (South Florida) before cirrus blow off moves in. Might see some record highs in a few areas contingent upon when the cirrus clouds start to break over the area due to thunderstorm tops which will form well to the west of the state and blanket the state by early or mid afternoon (possibly later). Assuming that does indeed occur. For if not, even stronger storms could occur later over the Peninsula south of I-4 in particular.

Mid-Late Afternoon:  Again, strongest activity will not be associated with the actual cold front which will make things much colder to cool Thursday through Saturday. Some showers and maybe some thunder especially South Florida by mid afternoon, though over Central we might be restricted to High based low topped convective like rain showers due to high LCLs (lifted condensation levels). Winds primarily from the SW but right near the beaches some backing toward paralleling the coast looks to be possible as far north as Southern Volusia (perhaps).

After 5-6PM: This seems to be around, give or take an hour, the big shift when LCLs lower and upper level winds begin to increase (unbeknownst to us at the ground) as high level 30-35,000 foot level winds over 100kts begin to move in -- Central at the approaching Right Exit Region for those winds which would increase upper level divergence and mid level lifting despite the lack of low level instability.

 As a result, much of the activity will not exactly be 'surface based' but it is only February so hard to say for sure. Not expecting a good covering of 'organized activity' though there could be some isolated pockets of it, and those are impossible to say exactly where they will manifest, so will broad brush the areas noted above in the image. As a result of this being not a more formidably organized situation synoptically speaking, not sure we'll even see a watch box posted, but wouldn't be surprised either way.

Timing is everything, including the season. Suspect that there might be some tornado warnings after or near the 'dinner hour' time-frame toward 10pm but whether anything actually verifies on the ground is another matter. Paying especially close attention to those east of I-95 mainly from the Southern Volusia County area south to Vero Beach due to lingering low level helicities that might manifest from the intracoastal/ocean dynamics set in place earlier in the day though invisible to the model guidance.   This 'could ' mean a very brief spin up like 'tornado' situation embedded within any stronger storm, but those would be very isolated. More predominately seems to be the chance for severe category straight line winds or even a brief spin up elsewhere as a result of interactions more than directly related to a discrete stand alone storm itself. Activity should be increasing in coverage after 7pm and exit off the east coast by 11pm for the most part with the cold front still many hours behind. Possibly rain showers with the front.

THURSDAY: Still appears the front will be directly across Central Florida within an hour either way of sunrise but the true cooling will not be fully appreciated until the sun starts to set. Breezy behind the front with westerly winds perhaps busting upwards of 30 mph for a period of time but good clearing with some earlier in the day clouds before the drier air moves in by late morning to early afternoon.

Much colder Thursday through Saturday mornings though gradually warming with a more noticeable change by Sunday after a weak front attempts to enter North and Central with little to no impacts. Afternoons in the lower to mid 60Fs (Central) but to the 70Fs by Sunday or even Saturday south of I4.

BEYOND: Dry for the most part and warm much like a week or so ago. It's as if so far the season is reversing - - for cold weather looks to be having a hard time coming , if not for a chance toward the 27th of the month (as it looks now).  

Chance of Strong or 'Isolated Severe Wx Possible' Late Wednesday - 11pm

"Turbulent Weather Potential Could Be Looming Late Wednesday"

TODAY: Not much really to say regarding today with the short-term on track. A little more moisture, a few more clouds, and warmer temperatures with coolest readings at the immediate beaches with highs ranging from the lower 80Fs well inland south of I-4 down to the  mid 70Fs  range in general immediate beaches.  A developing warm front near and north of I-10 will be creating winter havoc over parts of Georgia once again as we are sure to be hearing about if not already on the news and other areas further north.

WEDNESDAY: A cool start to the day but warmer than the one this morning with increasing cloud cover especially north of I-4 to near it as the day wears on. As surmised, it appears the active weather later in the day and evening will be associated more with a pre-frontal surface trough/front as opposed to the actual cold front which will be bringing air conditioner PLUS on the colder side afternoon readings in the following days. But closer to home in the short term...

Weak surface low to form near Apalachicola to slide east and amass in due course to an organized low will track very close to and up the entire US East Coast centered just offshore  from Wednesday evening through Thursday and into early Friday playing potential cold weather drudgery mainly along and east of the I95. 

For Florida, it appears a good 90-110kt upper level jet swath will coincide with 50-70kt winds through the mid levels and 30-40kts at lower levels (except at the lower 3000 ft or so). Winds do not appear to be sheared directionally as much as could be, but the GFS is showing respectable vertical upward velocity compiled/associated with some vorticity max impulses within the flow much like eddies form as water flows along a rocky river. Guidance does show especially as of the latest model run an impulse coming in near to south of Sarasota to exit near the Space Coast with others closer to I-4 though this might only be the half of it. Colder air aloft associated with any tall convective cloud tops into those strong upper levels winds could result in severe category straight line winds if and only if true deep convection will be able to initiate. 

The issue there being a lack of low level convergence along the pre-frontal trough coupled with weak surface based instability. Regardless, those dis-qualifiers aside, wouldn't hurt to hoist the 'just in case banners' and select a local weather station broadcast particularly after 7pm if along the East Coast.

THURSDAY: The true front itself does not appear will clear all of Central Florida until after sunrise the next day with passage direct close to Dead Central near sunrise. Much drier and colder air to infiltrate behind that boundary with rapidly clearing skies and very breezy winds as the colder air attempts to mix with good surface heating from the sun. Breezy on Thursday with NW winds gusting to 25 mph or so up until mid afternoon but gradually waning toward sunset. Highs will occur close to sunrise then hold steady or drop a bit until near sunset then drop more significantly . 

FRIDAY: Much cooler all areas with lower 40Fs inland though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 30Fs Interior West Central as high pressure begins to move directly overhead, with the immediate beaches in the lower 50Fs. Cool on Friday with a high in the lower to mid 60Fs and light west wind. 

EXTENDED: Continued cool with a bit chilly sunrise temperatures, but progressively warmer toward Sunday with a return to normal temperatures that day and perhaps a notch above 'normal' in the beyond. Extended dry period of several several days could be anticipated at this conjecture as the story is being portrayed as of this morning by the Geriatric Fiction Story (GFS model).

CoC Days Could be Followed By Strong/Severe Weather Late Wednesday

"Chamber of Commerce's True Blue and  '72F' Expected Today" 

TODAY: Light winds all day and nearly cloud free sky should allow the heating agent to act in force mainly away from the direct beachsides for highs in the mid 70Fs to 'near' 80F, warmest interior South Florida. Chamber of Commerce weather welcomes all to attend. Step outside and enjoy free trade. The beaches will be more toward the lower-mid 70F s as a result of the proximity to the cooling influence of the very cool ocean waters though not particularly 'cold' as has been experienced in other years.

TOMORROW: Almost ditto but a bit warmer with some increasing clouds particularly from I-4 and north as a warm front begins to develop along and north of I-10 toward Louisiana. Increasing moisture at lower levels cloud permit more scattered cumuliform low topped type clouds further south. Low temperatures similar to this morning, but perhaps a bit warmer as well.

WEDNESDAY: Day or reckoning as to what will manifest later in the day and into the overnight hours begins. Much still contingent on a few factors, and according to some discussions the GFS and ECMWF (A European model the blogger does not have thorough access to ) are still a bit at odds; but nonetheless, the GFS (Global Forecast System) model is becoming increasingly consistent despite a falling away in the morning run yesterday, with showing the same idea as previously discussed here on Friday. That being, good vertical life in the mid-upper levels and favorable lapse rates in the same regions as well with very cold air aloft in the upper levels into the midlevels after a day of heating supportive for strong to marginally severe storms. Pre-emptive cloud cover though, particularly from I-4 and north could be an issue for low level instability to be quite weak in that area where the best winds fields that support strong storms will be, but further south appears will also be in on the winds to a lesser degree.

LATE WEDNESDAY: Very cold air aloft and increasing upper level winds with the latest GFS showing a jet streak over 90kts aloft to pass overhead at night as low pressure slides across north Florida with slightly backed winds at the lower levels south of I-4, mainly early on from late afternoon through the 10pm time frame. We might also see a pre-frontal trough preceding a main cold front which could mean two potential shots of 'strong or severe storms' of two different characters - the main crux being a result of strong wind gusts and non-severe sized hail as it looks now, but that could easily change. It's still too soon to say with any degree of reasonable certainty but as outlined already. It is the 'potential' that  is being referred to as opposed to what may or might not actually occur. Chances are, we will be hearing more about this on the press-lines in the next 48 hours. The Storm Prediction Center is now discussing this situation as well as of yesterday and writing about it and has upped their ante on the speculations....casting lots on the models as opposed to a personal reputation.

BEYOND: Some much cooler mornings and afternoons ahead into the weekend follows Thursday into the weekend, but nothing colder than what has already been experienced this year, and not as cold at that as well. After some cooler days the GFS has been having a hard time finding anything but a prolonged period of very comfortable weather in days ahead out for several days to a week. Beyond that, model reliability fizzles into oblivion, but naught for watching tendencies and trends at least.

 

Continued Cloudy North Central All Day. / Much Nicer South Florida Half

TODAY/SATURDAY: A picture from the sky says 1000 words (if necessary) as can be seen below. Cooler under the cloud cover and North Florida but warmer into the lower 80Fs away from the clouds. The above image shows the anticipated inverted trough well off shore and it's counterpart in the form of a bit a stationary front from the cold fronts passage a few days ago remainings over South Central Florida. It didn't work it's way as far north as earlier models had suggested and so here Central Florida lays under and overrunning pattern to this moment which could remain in place to varying degrees until Sunday morning.   The weak Low offshore might gather some more momentum and with an 'impulse' to possibly ride over head tonight into tmorrow rain chanes could increase at some point during the day Saturday though it might be a bit warmer for a few regions further north than today. 

Latest Cloud Cover is moving slowly from the West South West
but not eroding much from the south

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Improving conditions, much drier and warmer though a bit breezy on Sunday. Clearing should truly commence for good by Early Sunday afternoon or sooner in North Florida..with some near stellar Chamber of Commerce type Days Monday and Tuesday. 

WEDNESDAY: Watching for possible strong to marginally severe storms this day as latest seems to indicate good mid level lapse rates and bulk shear at that same level which could result in some strong wind gusts if storms can get going..especially over the South Half of the state were better but marginal low level instability would be more likely. So far the 'window of opportunity' is honing in on somewhere from 3pm through midnight Wednesday, but details will be changing quite a bit between today and then.

VALENTINE'S GUESS FOR NOW: Much cooler and breezy and drier.

Cooler Weather Thursday/Friday, But no Cold Weather To Be Seen "Yet"

"Morning Cloud Cover and Showers" - Cocoa Beach Pier Viewing SSE

TODAY: A 'patch of moisture' through the mid levels is located over East Central Florida earlier today which is expected to lift further north and shrink a bit during the late morning through early afternoon. As a result for this location, skies could be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times up through around 2pm perhaps with some clearing as the day wears on with a few showers. Elsewhere, as low clouds and some fog burns off temperatures especially inland could warm to the near record highs that were observed yesterday. Some showers are possible closer to I-4 , inland, later today.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Little change as a cold front approaches. Chance of increasing cloudiness though after late morning into the afternoon and warm. There is a migratory chance of a better shower coverage from near Mims-North Tampa Bay line and south to South Florida during the afternoon though with the tiny chance of some thunder mixed in as well, likely slightly elevated thunderstorm activity but strong storms if any are not expected to be able to materialize due to the lack of more favorable conditions. The front will also be approaching , with more showery weather close to it and just behind it across North Florida.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The front is expected to be located near a Cape Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line sometime between 10pm to midnight time frame, accompanied by a wind shift to the North . The front should then be located over the Lake Okeechobee region by sunrise Thursday, with little to no further southward progress as it begins to washout. It might remain a bit cloudy though on ...

THURSDAY: ...with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs all day as a near shore coastal trough begins to form along the gulf Stream waters overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY: A pseudo warm front could form as a result of the nearshore coastal trough and remanent old boundary which would lift north toward I-4 . Another chance perhaps of early day cloudiness and/or fog as a result. Friday will be warmer once again with temperatures ranging in the mid-70Fs into the lowers 80Fs mainly well inland and south of I-4 depending on cloud cover.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Meanwhile with all this going on in the near-abouts, another true cold front will be approaching the state over the weekend from the West and Northwest. Though it will be warm again next weekend, it looks like Sunday might end up not being the better of the two days as remnant moisture begins to interact with the approaching boundary resulting in at least increasing clouds and maybe showers if not some storms by later Sunday into Sunday night. As a result, it might not be as warm on Sunday as might be hoped it could be. Saturday looks to be the better weekend day at this point.

MONDAY: This day appears might end up being more 'winter-like' but will be very short lived. Within 48 hours the story will be over, but still we might see one day of barely reaching even 60F, with the coast from the Cape South being in the lower - mid 50Fs to near 60F during the day..  but yet another front into around the mid-February time frame might introduce a more prolonged cooler period for temperatures to be running closer to normal for this time of year rather than the near-record to record breaking warmth of the past 3 days that have been experienced.

"It's Almost Here!" Frozen Precipitation in Panhandle Now

Current 4PM Position of Front. Last hour there was as much as a 50F degree
temperature spread between the Pensacola region and Orlando 

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY:  Not too much of a change from previous post other than when the best chance of truly measurable rainfall might occur. As can be seen above, the cold front is on its way south slowly but surely. It now appears it will be in North Central into Central and finally South Central Florida between midnight though 9AM, and over direct Central somewhere between 4AM- 8AM (models differ). It also appears again to be a very shallow boundary with SW-WSW winds not too far off the surface. In that sense, the cloud cover is extensive with plentiful moisture associated with the front and behind it for a change rather than ahead of it. 

As noted the other day, this could set the stage for a pretty nasty day tomorrow near I-4 and north working southward with time. Cloud cover if not fully over Central Florida already at sunrise will be shortly thereafter with increasing chances of 'drizzle' and light rain. South Florida might also get in some heavier rainfall from a discombobulated pre-frontal trough.

Warmest temperatures on Wednesday might be those either before sunrise or shortly thereafter depending on the front's timing, but wouldn't expect it to warm much much if not become cooler all day, particularly if we started getting any form of  precipitation. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs (warmer south) and colder north.

The only change so far is concerning Thursday. The GFS is now showing this day to be the day with heavier rainfall (who knows, maybe a few rumbles of thunder) as mid level lift in an already over-running situation (cold air at ground but almost warmer above in association with the WSW winds)..would make for low clouds, fog, maybe some heavier rain, and maybe even some thunder. The latest Melbourne NWS forecast put it well, "If you ever wanted to know what the weather in Seattle is like, now might be your chance".

THURSDAY: Thus, Thursday might be the overall worst of the next two days with little change in temperature  the entire time. The worst is looking to pull out to the east overnight with partial clearing on Friday and much warmer, though possibly a bit cloudy at times yet still since we never fully see dry air, especially south of I-4.

THIS WEEKEND: The GFS is showing near to above record high temperatures by Sunday (already). Another front is poised to pass through but it would be  a backdoor front with winds immediately easterly behind it with a cool down to near to maybe a tad below normal but nothing outrageous at all.
It is looking to remain either very warm to near normal up through day 10 February if even another front goes through ..at least as of the last couple runs of the GFS. We might have seen the worst of winter now...time will tell.

"Manus Dei"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Late Tuesday/Wednesday Dilemma - Beyond is Looking 'Up"

Problematic Cloud cover associated with poorly defined
 trough could linger while washing out over Central Today

TODAY: A glance out your window tells the story and above shows the situation. If one is generally in the South half of the state the day will be quite fine , but from Brevard County and north some cloud cover associated with a wisp of a trough stretched east/west across the state has about come to a screeching halt in regard to any further southward progress. With exposure to day time sun..some of these clouds could really begin to break up, the question becomes with that with they only remanifest in another form since that boundary will still be in the area? Regardless, the only effect in this region will be how warm it will get this afternoon contingent upon the extent of cloud coverage. The previous post had  already noted problematic periods of cloud cover in days ahead, and this is one of those instances. Note above that a cold front will be entering north to north central and eventually Central Florida very slowly in the next 48 hours but until then...

TUESDAY: ..it will work toward  the I-4 corridor. The GFS is now really holding off on the rainfall totals except north of I-4 whereas the NAM almost looks like a carbon copy of the GFS 48 hours ago for Tuesday into Wednesday when the previous post was made meaning rainfall, some heavy,  as far south as the Volusia/Brevard County line region and north toward North Florida. This day also appears will have potential issues with cloud coverage though , thus time will tell on those days; Central and South Florida will again see temperatures ranging in general through the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs (South Florida).

WEDNESDAY:  Contingent on what amasses on Tuesday. This is the big day in question though the front's position is general agreed upon to be across Central Florida near South Brevard by Day's end toward Sarasota. If the NAM or the old GFS verifies, it will be a nasty day near I-4 with temperatures in the mid 40Fs to the lowers 50Fs with rain rain rain...some making it as far south Central Florida from near Melbourne across the state toward Sarasota. These conditions persist well into Wednesday night but at this point abate by Thursday morning as the front glides toward the Florida straits and fully washes out leaving behind a very cool pond of air to persist through Thursday.
On the other hand, recent runs of the GFS have backed off on the rainfall , electing instead to ride with extensive cloud coverage.

THURSDAY: Under the surmise that front will have cleared though the atmosphere never fully dries out south of I-4, partly cloudy and perhaps even some cloudy periods with highs in the upper 50F toward the lowers 70Fs far South Florida (and colder further north) as winds begin to swing around to the NE-ENE. The good thing about the front taking so long to slide through Florida is that the high pressure behind it will be moving at a much faster pace toward the east coast of the Carolinas  (hence, no cold NW winds behind the front).  Unfortunately, this looks to be a very cold and perhaps snowy event spell for the coastal Carolinas as a result.

FRIDAY: Warmer morning far east coast and warmer days ahead from February 1 - 5th still stands tall! Perhaps near record highs in some areas away from the beaches come this weekend into early next week.
GFS has hinted once or twice that there might even be a chance of inland thunderstorms either Saturday or Sunday over Central Florida though the last GFS run backed off on that potential. It appears much will depend on the extent of cloud coverage vs clearer early day skies for  thunderstorm development later on.

WEEKEND: As noted above, the highlight beyond this coming Thursday is the string of warm days ahead during the first week of February, at least until the 5th.

 

Warm up to Begin Into Monday - Good Rain Chance Tuesday/Wednesday (?)

"Sunwise Skies" (Cape Canaveral , 24 Jan 2014) 

TODAY/NIGHT: Frontal boundary  (again!) has slid though with a westerly feed aloft advecting some higher clouds in with northerly surface winds, but they seem to be breaking up well this 2pm hour with none on the way upstream for a while. Highs today mainly in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs and breezy especially near waterways with drier air below giving the air that whisper of winter feel. Otherwise, the nip-n-tuck tricky part for the next 72 hours will be timing of clouds in the mid-upper levels.  

TONIGHT/SATURDAY: It does not look like the immediate east coast (mainly east of US1 at least) will see a big temperature drop tonight due to north to NNE wind over night growing near calm  as the evening progresses to sunrise. A1A from the CAPE and south might remain in the lower or even some mid-50Fs tonight and much more even will be contingent on if clouds move in over night. Inland lows generally in the lower-mid 40Fs though some slivers of frost are always possible well inland. Otherwise, warmer on Saturday with a light westerly wind as the next front attempts to slide into the state with highs in the mid to even upper 60Fs  (or lower 70Fs far South Central). 

SUNDAY: Though a cool start to the day with a westerly land breeze in the morning for the coast, Sunday appears to be the warmest day we've had in a while now with highs into the lower-mid 70Fs, but again timing of cloud cover (or lack thereof) can't be promised one way or the other and that will to some extent determine just exactly how warm it will be on Sunday.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: The GFS is showing some signs of better news for those who would like the weather to warm up a bit. As of the last GFS run and the run before that one,  appears some 'height rises in the mid-upper levels" over the far Desert Southwest will buckle east, across, and through the Gulf and Florida, with the net effect of a not-so-certain next true cold frontal passage early/mid week next week. The last two GFS runs show in fact that next front to lay across Dead Central by Wednesday but with a hard time working south as northerly winds behind it are extremely shallow and westerly winds above that. Hence, we could be setting up for a fairly extensive 'over-running rain event' beginning Tuesday afternoon (far North Florida) working into Central overnight Tuesday or Wednesday and through the day. The GFS might be going over-board on the rainfall totals but even still, in association with  some form of that setup we should at least see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon and through the entire day Wednesday if not into Thursday, but at least it won't be cold with mainly 50Fs mornings and 60Fs afternoons and some 70Fs further south

" Liquid Gold "

LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: As of this afternoon, the GFS is showing extensive cloud cover and rain,  possibly heavy,  near or just south of I-4 eventually covering much of the state on Wednesday but that is a new one from previous runs. If this verifies which will be more clear in upcoming runs, rain chances are pretty much 80-100 percent on Wednesday. Guidance has been showing at least cloud cover though and spotty showers and maybe better rain chances near and north of I-4 fro several runs.




THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Again the GFS has shifted gears from a potentially very cold Friday/Saturday  to nothing special at all as the front clears with lows similar to this morning but with a fairly rapid transition to onshore winds meaning that NEXT Weekend and the following 2-4 days afterward remain much warmer than that of our recent days.

Latest GFS and a few runs before that has been showing the first 4-6 days of February to be running near or just above normal temperature wise with maybe even some very warm days stuck in there meaning highs in the mid-upper 70Fs if not maybe some inland lowers 80Fs after next weekend.

"Colder Wednesday and Into The Weekend: Beyond?"

Cold Front to Descend Upon Central and South Florida Tonight,
"Winter Returns..Again"

TODAY: A cold front as of late morning is positioned as shown above over far NW Florida which will continue its southward plunge into Central Florida today and tonight and eventually through South Florida after midnight. There appears to be two prefrontal troughs of low intensity, like ripples before a wave,  ahead of the true boundary. The first could generate showers over Central Florida (mainly North Central) near I-4 much later today after 2pm through 6pm, which could enter  Dead Central, Central Direct, or the Latitudinal Center Line...however one wants to put it as well, but chances are better for some increasing cloud coverage . Though it is not breezy as of typing time, we could see it getting much breezier today from around 1pm - sunset and beyond.  The front will be in that location (Dead Central) near  10pm  after which time a wind shift from west-southwest or west to WNW-NW will gradually occur with increasingly dry and colder air and clearing skies being the sure sign of the front's passage accompanied by breezy conditions.

WEDNESDAY: Dry and 'cold' with a high in the lower 50Fs, very dry after midday   and decreasing wind as the day progresses under mainly sunny conditions. Temperatures will drop rapidly toward and after sunset Wednesday night as by then the driest air will be in place with little moisture to restrain heat escaping back into the atmosphere under already cooled grounds.

THURSDAY: Much colder in the morning and with little wind and a chance of inland frosts and maybe some freezing temperatures near and north of I-4. Only the A1A strip mainly Canaveral and south could get by without really noticing this colder morning of the two. A bit warmer in the afternoon with a high in the mid-upper 50Fs. (Note: in all regards colder temperatures the further north one goes from Dead Central, warmer as one heads to South Florida ). On Thursday night it appears another front could go through near midnight, therefore:...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Despite what i've seen advertised of late on media (which is not very often), it could end up being that FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY , one or some of those mornings, could yet be the coldest beyond even Thursday morning. The 'Polar Vortex" or what was referred to here in previous years as the James Bay Low (as it ends up) due to its proximity near or directly over James Bay,  combined with a relentless ridge over the far Western U.S remains in the lock-n-load position for intrusive outbursts of cold discontent, though not angry enough to bring  "the Roaring 20Fs" back to Central Florida for the most part, only on the calm and pristinely still silent mornings such as what occurred a few mornings ago in isolated select areas.

THEREFORE: Today is the warmest day the state in general will be caressing through the next 7-10 days for the most part. The GFS has been showing 'something' happening around the 26-28th time frame for over a week and now as that time approaches and model reliability one would hope would start to enter the picture approaches, the scene continues to change, but it is that time frame that appears to be the make or break point regarding how long the nonsensical will continue. Only a few days ago through early yesterday the end of winter appeared to be coming just in time for February, but the last two runs of the GFS are now spelling a different story. No significantly outrageous cold spells are being shown for Florida, just the normal-below normal, or that is to say only more of the same of what we've been experiencing which is below 'normal' either on the high temperature or low temperature end.

Florida Freeze around 1977. Image was taken late in the afternoon this day in January. See this link for January 18-19, 1977 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_wave_of_January_1977

There is a bit of a misnomer when it comes to 'normal' as seldom is  both the daytime 'normal high' and morning 'normal low' ever experienced on the same day over Florida in the true winter time frame.    For example, yesterday the highs were very close to 'normal' but the lows were at least 10F degrees below normal. In other cases, the reverse can be true and this is not accounting for cloud coverage days which further muddies the winter waters. Only when 'normalized' out and all averages taken into account over many many years of record keeping can the curve by generalized enough to come upon a new range of 'Normal", which is a bit misleading but 'generally helpful' in some regards for other reasons in no uncertain terms over an over-generalized climatological perspective which in another way tells us nothing if that makes any sense.

On this day last year the blog read : "In Summary: Although there are some changes in store, there is nothing significant in the upcoming week in regard to big rains or cold temperatures outside of what we've been experiencing the past 10 days. The trend continues until around the last 2 or 3 days of the month which is well beyond model reliability anyway. One could say, the point in making a blog post today is that there is no point in writing one when push comes to shove, other than to note that no big cold blasts or heavy storms are foreseen for quite some time in the current pattern (s) on tap "

Cool Toward Cold, Thursday & Saturday (And Beyond?)

Sunrise  Morning

TODAY/TONIGHT: The first in a series of several  cold frontal passages over the next week to 10 days  is in the process as we speak, with the first boundary located over North Florida.  This front is expected to clear 'Central Exact' around 6-8PM with no fanfare. Any rainfall to occur over Central should be over by 4pm, and be sparse at that or at least fairly brief if so. Temperatures behind the boundary only drop slightly such that by morning it will still be mostly only cool out with upper 40Fs through 50Fs and maybe a 60F or so from the Cape and south. The best part about this boundary is that skies will clear somewhat behind it but we might still be dealing with high clouds all day Wednesday  with highs in the low to mid 60Fs for the most part.

THURSDAY: The next front is then expected to pass through Wednesday night around 2am. The latest GFS is showing STRONG cold air advection behind the boundary with seemingly normal bed time temperatures Wednesday night dropping hard and fast in the middle of the night with frontal passage in full swing at sunrise Central and north Florida. Guidance in the last GFS  run showed strong NNW winds especially at the beaches for the first half of Thursday , possibly gusting to 35 mph if not toward 40mph, with highs never getting out of the mid-upper 40Fs at that . That is a new development though , but be advised just in case especially coastal Volusia where near freezing temperatures might also occur early in the day. Winds then are forecast to drop off as the day proceeds.


FRIDAY: Again cold but not quite as cold. Another boundary will be approaching once again with reinforcements and another big drop in temperatures Friday night after a day time high in the low-mid 60Fs or upper 50Fs. 

SATURDAY: this morning now appears to be the coldest one on tap statewide this winter with freezing to near freezing temperatures well south to Southwest Florida and upper 30Fs over the Barrier Islands of Brevard if not colder. We will likely be hearing more regarding 'Frost Warnings and Advisories" as this set up will not be true  wind advection cold but to include radiational cooling  and drainage flow at night down the spine of the state. The immediate beaches are not usually as affected by such conditions for the most part, but this upcoming 10 days could prove to be an 'agricultural challenge'...as this image indicates.

Central Florida per this image has the honors of being the 'Most Below Normal"  in the temperature department for the entire country in the upcoming days ahead.

OUTSIDE OF THE COLD HEADLINES :  Cloud cover does not appear to be such a persistent issue  as noted in the previous post, and onshore Atlantic winds ...say goodbye to them too. Winds for quite some time will mainly be from the NNW-N or the West before each approaching cold front. The GFS shows no southerly winds at all for nearly 10 days at least..with a brief 2 day warm up before the next surge of cold air moves in ...in about a week from now. But things change  we'll just have to see it out.

Good Rain Chances Overnight Monday into Tuesday, Possible Strong Storms

Clouds for Cold Front "Aloft" Pass Over Central Florida at Sunrise

THIS MORNING/TODAY: Cold front (very shallow) has completed passage as of earlier today over Central .  The front at 2000 feet (as opposed to ground level) crossed Central at sunrise and was easily discernible by a line of low stratocumulus clouds. Passage of this line was noted with a slight increase in NW winds and small temperature drop. The surface front was already well over South Florida at that time.  By shallow front is meant that not far above 2000 ft all indications are much different with SW winds still in place. High pressure which started out near Louisiana this morning will quickly translate east to east north east and exit the Georgia/South Carolina region tonight. Wind will swing from NW-N-NE-East during the day and tonight and by sunrise wind will be light ESE-SE at the beaches but remain very light. Overnight lows in the lower 50s to upper 40Fs well inland but the immediate beach from Cape Canaveral and South might have a slight rise in temperature after 3AM - 5AM time frame and end up at sunrise near 63-66F degrees as a result of the wind shifts overnight. Much warmer on Monday with a high in the mid 70Fs and winds from the south to south southwest.

TOMORROW: Though the air mass is quite dry now, some higher clouds might begin to stream in near sunset tonight (Sunday night) of little impact but more certainly on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper low is over old North Mexico right now but it will be moving east to east northeast in the next 36 hours to the northern  Central Gulf where it dampens out to a open wave , merging with the now persistent Deep Upper Trough associated loosely with the infamous  "Polar Vortex of media hype" which in previous posts has been referred to at times as being reflected by the  "James Bay Low". Energy from that system will merge and over - ride a bit of the tail end of the front that went through early today here, with weak cyclogenesis  low pressure commencing well south of the Mobile area which then will progress east to over or north of the I-4 overnight Monday night. 

There will a very small chance of isolated severe storms but more likely several strong storms mainly about 10 miles south of I-4 and north, with still some strong storms possible in the region noted in the below graphic. For Most of North Central and Central Florida this means any truly active weather would occur from near midnight through around 6AM Tuesday morning. It looks like the entire I-4 corridor has a 100 percent chance of rain unless something drastic changes in the outlook. There are notes in timing difference though, with the GFS model of which this forecast is based being faster than the European, so be advised that particularly for Central Florida the more active weather might be delayed until at least sunrise if not later. Time will tell.

Yellow line on South Florida shows where the 925mb 'cold front' was last seen quickly losing all identity. The orange and red lines show zones of strong to 'maybe' severe weather late Monday into Early Tuesday with a 100 percent chance of rain for some locations north of the orange line across Central Florida within that same time frame.

BEYOND: Frontal passage Tuesday followed by yet another SERIES of dry fronts mostly aloft for the next 4- 6 days. Say  "goodbye" to onshore winds off the Atlantic and quick warm ups. The Wind will swing from NW-N and back to NW for the most part from Tuesday on in to the following week. So far, Thursday morning appears could end up with some surprise Freezing Temperatures Central Florida and North though I'm seeing nothing about that on the wires yet. This event will not be quite as bad as the previous one but still expect on Thursday we might never get out of the lower-mid 50Fs and most days will never reach 70F or if so, only for a brief period into the beginning of the following week (except perhaps one day next weekend).

"2000 Ft Cold Front" went through This morning

EXTENDED CLOUD COVER OUTLOOK: One bright side though to the very cool to slightly below normal to near normal temperature outlook. It looks like the sun will be shining more often than not for a change and winds in general will be fairly light as well. So though it be much cooler now as we enter ( to my recollection ) the normally coldest time of year across East Central and South Florida, nothing highly unusually cold is foreseen as of yet, though it will get quite dry after Tuesday's early rains for an extended period of time. There is also a secondary cold period beyond Thursday/Friday that appears we could again be gambling with near freezing temperatures early next week. Looks like we're in it (winter) for the long haul now. But for how long is completely unknown at this point. 

Convective Rain-shower Over Gulf Stream Waters Saturday Afternoon