Chance of Isolated Strong to Pulse Severe Storms Mainly South Half Interior Later Today

Storm Outflow Bears Down on Cape Canaveral Saturday

TODAY: Pattern of recent days is breaking down, with today being about the last of the greater coverage of storms, and possibly a much less chance of the immediate beaches seeing rain today, though not impossible.  South half of state is becoming very unstable already as of noon with the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) showing CAPE nearly 5500 J/kg (compared to winter when CAPE is running around 0 -500), coupled with continued cold (but perhaps not quite as cold as previous days) aloft. Sea breeze convergence  will work more effectively today than previous days, but both coast's sea breeze might only work slowly inland with no real particular side favored, though steering continues to be from the west to WNW toward the east side,  but only at around 10 mph at best.   Will also watch an apparent boundary in the lower to mid levels running east to west north of I-4 for some stronger storms though , noted as shown below.

There might be some surprises close to the Dashed Blue boundary shown above which lies around 8-10,000 feet above ground level. South of that line is where the greater instability lies, especially over the south half of the state toward the west side.  Just about anywhere could see some thunder though about  5-10 miles from any coast though some might drift back to the east coast north of Vero Beach

New Storm Goes up off Cape Canaveral Yesterday

BEYOND: Rainy days have come to and end pretty much for anyone that lives east of  US-1 up and down the coast other than for some coastal shower chances to work into the equation late in the week. Guidance is showing decreasing atmospheric moisture across the boards even come Wednesday into Thursday. The odd ball is the North American Model (NAM) run this morning, which showed a weak mid level circulation forming close to Brevard County overnight resulting in clouds and showers over the East Side of the state off and on tomorrow,  but will toss that out and hope for the best.

Other than storms developing inland and moving away from the east coast (and decreasing in coverage), not much to write about heading into next weekend due to how far out in time it is to bother discussing a future cast that could possibly  hold any validity.

Sunrise This Father's Day, Jetty Park, Cape Canaveral 

A Few Stronger Storms South Central/South Florida Later Today

Early Morning in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: A variation of the past two days with only minors changes in the over-all scheme of things. Already as of 12:45pm, showers and some thunder is migrating across Central Florida into the Orlando area heading toward the east coast. Cloud coverage is holding on but thinning rapidly in many areas other than an area over South Florida which will be moving out in to the mid afternoon. With little chance of a sea breeze north of Sebastian Inlet, suspect most storms over Central Florida will not be terribly strong though some stronger wind gusts in the mid 30 mph to near 40 mph is always possible as was the case yesterday. The greater threat today will exist more than likely over South Florida where a solid sea breeze on the east coast has already set up over Dade/Broward/.Palm Beach Counties.

SUNDAY: Ridge axis at the low levels will work north toward Central Florida allowing the sea breeze to come into play. Much of what occurs tomorrow will be contingent upon how quickly cloud coverage clears out over night tonight , allowing the atmosphere more time to destabilize. Steering will again be toward the east side but at a much slower pace, so heavier rainfall totals could occur on Sunday in 'the chosen yet to be known of' areas, mainly inland as it would appear now. The ridge axis will work north toward I-10 going into late Monday and remain there at least the first half of next week.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Still looks like there could be a few coastal showers a few mornings with lingering deep precipitable water values in the 1.65 - 1.8" range, though this is not a given. More likely will be thunderstorms mainly along to west of I-95, and same holds true equidistant from the immediate west coast most of the first half of next week. The GFS is flailing on whether another upper level trough will press the ridge axis south to at least Central if not South Central toward next weekend which would then favor more toward the east side of the state again, either way, steering looks to be the typical 'very weak', which would support low level convergence from sea breezes and lake breeze interactions being the main cause of activity (typical summer like pattern).

Early Onset of Showers/Storms, Heavier Activity Concentration East and SE Coasts

Radar and Satellite show showers have already erupted West Side
and should move generally to the east at 15-22mph through late morning
Small chance some stronger activity could amass OR larger
rainfall totals will result somewhere along the east coast by end of day
but exactly where is a tough call. Big totals occurred yesterday
exceeding 3-4" near Martin County 

TODAY: Good chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm (perhaps more than one) in many locations today with early onset of activity and the KSC sounding coming in with a 500mb temperature of -10C, which is cold for this time of year. Winds aloft from the west at 20 kts combined with the cold air could result in strong but sub-severe winds gusts in the vicinity of storms and in heavier downpours, but lack of sea breeze on the east coast makes things tricky on the truly strong storm call.

FULL MOON AT 6:00 AM

Due to the stronger winds of at least 15 kts closer to ground level, a sea breeze might be hard to come by except toward far southeast Florida.

SATURDAY: Yet again cold air aloft, but steering could slow down a bit, and hence a better chance of a sea breeze further north, otherwise, not much change but inevitably each and every day differs from the others, so we'll can play it as it comes and see what parameters are in place when that time comes.

BEACH FOLIAGE IN BLOOM HAS COMMENCED RECENTLY

SUNDAY: Sea breezes to be in place this day with continued cold air aloft due to an upper level open low pressure circulation. Suspect this day might have the strongest storms with the added bonus of low level convergence due to the sea breeze collison toward the east side of the state. Hard to say if storms will actually reach the east coast south of the Cape this day. There 'might' be some earlier day showers and some thunder near the beaches though, so that will be watched if one is concerned with early day outside activities in that area.

JETTY PARK PREPARATIONS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING

BEYOND: Monday-Wednesday could have some early morning showers at the beaches and just offshore, but beyond that point is where the GFS CONTINUES to bring a tropical entity in the form of a sold CAT 1 if not CAT 2 hurricane across South and Central Florida (the previous run showed Central and North Florida), impacting the state by June 24th and crossing the state on the 25th. Again, this is too far out in time to place reliance on and the model has been showing something tropical to occur in the extended time frame since late May. Otherwise, the surface to low level ridge axis resides near I-10 with the neat result being early east coast sea breeze advancement toward the Center of the State and best chances of storms well west of I-95 each day.

 

LONE BEACH STAND, CAPE CANAVERAL

Storms Again This Afternoon

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral on Wednesday

TODAY: Very tricky blog post today. A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across South Florida in the very wee hours of the morning spreading a variety of clouds across South and Central Florida. Models have been showing close to no showers or storms at all today as a result, but as evidenced by peeking outside , the cloud coverage quickly moved out post haste and the atmosphere is in quick recovery mode as of noon time. A severe thunderstorm warning away from that overnight activity near Tally is currently in place, with some other activity near Gainesville even at this hour (12:10pm). 

With clouds clearing but some more high clouds on the way for parts of Central, it still looks like storms would be possible today, some strong just about anywhere but mainly near the East Coast and where outflow/lake breeze interactions occur. The air aloft is not as cold as models had depicted it would be so the chance of actual severe storms is minimal, though some pulse severe are always possible. 

The main hazards will be localized nuisance flooding especially for areas that have been getting consecutive days of hefty rainfall totals, and lightning.  Perhaps some small hail as well after 4:30pm especially. Suspect that for heavier storms moving off shore there would be some Special Marine Warnings issued, and the chance of waterspouts can't be totally tossed out today .

What not to be doing when cloud to ground lightning is imminent.  (perhaps the blogger should take that advice as well)

Strong storm chances was broad brushed as it was opted that model forecasts are useless today. Watch for a boundary to work south from North Florida as occurred yesterday which might have some impact on Volusia, Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake Counties   for greater coverage. The Lake Okeechobee breeze could also play in today

See Notes above under image: Also to mention, the east coast sea breeze should remain pegged very close to the beaches today with steering from the WSW-SW near 15 knots, storms would have no problem moving off shore, but winds just above ground appear light enough and the pressure gradient at the surface is not too strong to all out remove any chance of a sea breeze today. Activity might get going just a bit later than yesterday Central Florida along the east coast, and even later South Florida which as can be seen above completely cleared out after all.

BEYOND: Looks like a chance of storms as well on Friday and into Saturday with better chances of sea breeze convergence storms  from the coasts on Saturday but if not then, on Sunday.  Still watching the GFS doing it's thing with the Tropics as mentioned yesterday, the overnight model run actually showed a near hurricane over the state in about two weeks, but just prior to that it showed a tropical storm heading to Texas, so will ignore the antics until the time comes. It is hurricane season afterall.

Chance of Heavy Storms mainly East Side of State Later Today

Upper level (around 500mb or 20,000 feet) 'energy' (vorticity) is shown in red and is easily discernible in water vapor animations this morning ,  counter-clockwise rotation is seen in that area. This area of energy was off SE Florida Yesterday , and is still in place this morning having moved a bit north and west overnight, likely responsible for some of the stirring of the moisture at the mid-levels, and a cloud deck which is breaking up over parts of the state

TODAY: The state seems to be divided between two weather regimes. The Western Panhandle by a nearly stationary cold frontal boundary that passed through Wet Texas the other day and across the Arkansas/Louisiana area Sunday resulting in some severe thunderstorm warnings, and the other being a vorticity max (show in red above) hovering around the state of Florida. 

Animation of the above image clearly show counter clockwise rotation in the moisture fields shown by the whites and grays. This 'area of energy' could provide the impetus to boost storm activity today either by intensity or how long it will be prolonged during the day (resulting in some heavy rainfall totals somewhere). Temperatures aloft are slowly getting cooler as noted yesterday which will also help promote storm growth and/or sustain activity (even if only drips into the evening hours).

The best chance of stronger storms could be near the vorticity  location.  With steering from the WSW-SW at around 11-14 kts per the morning KSC sounding combined with an afternoon sea breeze which shouldn't make too much inland progress, late day piling up of storms progressing toward the coast combined with outflows / lake breeze boundaries,   and plentiful moisture in the proper atmospheric levels for storm generation, we 'should' (tongue in check) have no problem with some locations seeing over 2-3 inch rainfall totals, some usual dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and perhaps some smaller hail reports, with rains ending at some spots perhaps not well until after 9 or 10pm this evening.

THURSDAY: Better chance of strong to perhaps pulse severe storms with very cold air aloft for this time of year as noted yesterday. The NWS in Melbourne has mentioned the unusually colder air aloft as well in the forecast models. Suspect the Storm Prediction Center will place the state in at least a 'See Text" for 'strong storms tomorrow at some point (if not today as well), but so far they have mentioned only the Panhandle for today.

FRIDAY: Steering toward the east coast begins to weaken, though some showers and a storm or two could go up very close to the east coast, suspect  "the main crux of the matter " late afternoon/early evening activity will primarily be along to west of I-95 and just away from either of the coasts, but more so on SATURDAY --

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Steering will promote activity to shift toward the interior areas and the west coast for a number of days. As hard it is to believe, by the Tuesday time frame the state's forecast in general continues to be partially contingent upon what happens way down by the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula (based on the GFS model). Thus, beyond about Tuesday, it's hard to say if storms will favor the west side or east side of the state (or any side). . status quo says interior and along the I-4 and Florida Turnpike Corridors.

Shower/Storm Coverage to Increase , Some Possibly Strong/Pulse Severe By Thursday

    "Open Country "

TODAY: Water vapor imagery shows much deeper atmospheric moisture over South Florida inching northward heading toward noon time. Steering hasn't changed a whole lot 'yet' in regard to storm motion, but for the most part it appears many areas could see rain today with some larger accumulations west of I-95 and especially Western Interior areas of Central Florida toward the West Coast side. Late today into early tonight some areas south of Brevard might see outflow induced showers activate or drift toward the beach-sides as steering currents will being to shift toward a more westerly direction as a low pressure, upper level trough begins to inch toward Florida from the west (which can be seen on the edge of the image shown below). That trough will be affecting the weather with increased storm chances Wednesday and Thursday.

WEDNESDAY: Upper level trough and associated W-SW flow aloft (storm steering winds from SW to NE) should increase the chances of East Coast locations including the beaches having a better chance of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft will also begin to cool close to the trough axis (Thursday) and over Florida. Early onset of activity as well by early afternoon is possible, especially on Thursday with showers and storms moving off shore possibly as late as well after dark on Wednesday.

THURSDAY: There appears to be a signal for strong to pulse severe storms this day as temperatures aloft per the Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates quite cold air aloft in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere and perhaps a weak jet streak across the state if the GFS is to be believed. Earlier onset of storms and delayed east coast sea breeze (if one at all in some locations) would suggest some strong storms especially north of the Ft Pierce area outside of a Lake Breeze induced storm in that general area toward Vero Beach, with good areal storm/rain coverage this day as well. This would be a day possibly to monitor your preferred weather monitoring utilities (i.e., Local Tv Stations) by mid afternoon.

FRIDAY: At this day is where guidance begins to differ with the GFS backing off on storms being steered to the east coast. Much will depend on how the trough that approach the state on Wednesday/Thursday interacts with high pressure to the east of Florida. It appears that high pressure might win out though as of early Tuesday morning's model run, which would mean that east coast locations would remain dry. On the other hand, deep moisture and light SSE winds (but very light) early day would lead one to consider that early day showers near the coast would be possible.

In the extend, the GFS continues to show a 'tropical entity' to form near the Yucatan Peninsula to lift north toward the Central or East Central Gulf later in the month, but this model has been showing that to occur since late May. If one of those earlier model  runs were to be believed (or had been such as one around May 25th), Florida would be being threatened by heavy tropical downpours and/or possibly mini-supercell storms tomorrow (June 11th) based on the model runs of  late May into early June, but clearly that is not the case as it stands now. This places a big crimp in the extended otu look as a result, because what the GFS shows for that area affects the Florida weather well before any such  storm actually would approach the state.

Rainshowers / Thunderstorms Appear Likely Today : Quite Pleasant on Friday

Showers and Thunderstorms Already Over North Florida
with others Beginning To Form
in Very Spotty Fashion  Elsewhere Should Increase into Early Afternoon 

TODAY: No sig changes from previous two posts as atmospheric workable moisture is up toward 2.00" (precipitable water). As of this hour (11AM) deep moisture convergence is building more toward the west and southern portions of the state with the workable moisture for showers and storms at a sufficient 90% loading capacity. There could be some stronger wind gusts in initial activity but suspect that after any initial raihshowers occur some stabilitzation might put the lid on any chance of stronger storms since low level instability is running only at modest levels at is, and any rainfall will further stabilize the atmosphere in those areas that it rains early on...with early rains onset the atmosphere instability will have little time to build up during the heat of the day already frustrated by varying degrees of cloud coverage.

Storms today should press in from the general SW direction and 'could' pile up mostly in the area in blue (above) where instability is currently being maximized , and where the cloud cover is the least intrusive (prohibitive for better storm activity).

The associated cold front is still well west of Central and South Florida, and is unlikely to clear those areas until well after midnight.  With loss of daytime heating activity should dwindle to spotty rain showers and light post storm drippings to continue here and there toward 10pm if not as late as 2AM. There is a slight chance that somewhere along East Central could have additive moderate rainfall amounts though on top of early day activity is making for some pockets of 2-3 " totals once all is said and done.

FRIDAY: Significant drying out to commence around noontime Central working south during the day with cooler temperatures  in the mid-upper 70Fs for afternoon highs, NNW winds 12-20mph, mainly during the midafternoon but dying down by evening.

Continued pleasant through the weekend with cooler mornings mainly inland toward the west coast as NE winds will quickly modify the temperatures  along the east coast for the overnight cooling time frame. 

A secondary boundary to pass by on Monday into Tuesday should increase cloud coverage in varying degrees, resulting in maybe an isolated sprinkle but so far that's about it for quite some time to come after today in regard to rainfall or active weather.

Chance of Heavy Thunderstorms Thursday

Moisture Behind Tropical Wave now having moved into the Central Gulf could
result in heavier rainfalls on Thursday  

TODAY: Really not much new from the previous post. Moisture from a dampened out tropical/easterly wave is flowing across FLorida into the Central Gulf, though rainshowers could occur anytime today , the best chance later today is toward North and West Florida (see image below)...

THURSDAY: Latest GFS indicates a pre-frontal trough to set up toward the West Side to West Central Side of the state toward early afternoon, though along the east coast almost side-shore winds and another seemingly coastal trough to set up. Between these two, particularly of interest at this time is the one along the east coast, convergence could set up through a good portion of the lower levels of the atmosphere and with a  slightly unstable air mass in place and divergence aloft coupled with all the moisture ahead of the frontal boundary being drawn north ahead of it (the GFS shows up to 2.2" (or more?) precipitable water values as a result of convergence), wouldn't be totally surprised to see rainfall totals somewhere exceeding 3" , but just exactly where, hard to say. Chance of thunderstorms as well, with possibly some stronger winds, but so far it appears the greatest hazard would be blinding rainfall (if said rainfall can manage to occur).

BEYOND: Front to clear Central by near Sunrise toward noon on Friday. It will be quite dry on Friday afternoon and into Saturday with cooler temperatures making for a nice start to the weekend with gradual warming into Sunday. No big rain making situations appear to be setting up for quite a while as a result of a slow moving high pressure area to pass over Florida from the SW Gulf in the days following the cold front's passage.  That high pressure will make for a long period of dry and pleasant weather, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Chance of Heavy Rainshowers/Storms on Thursday (?)

Thinning High clouds should make for a partly to mostly sunny day with a chance
of thunderstorms or showers as noted in locations above later to early evening 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: GFS continues to show and easterly 'tropical wave' ; per discussions from the NWS Offices there is some question concerning how it will be handled in coming days; the GFS shows it dampening out yet making it to Florida as increased atmospheric moisture before the next front arrives. It was questioned whether the front would beat out the moisture in the previous post, but it was thought the moisture 'wave' would win the race. Since that post the GFS a few times showed the moisture might not even make it here at all, but that has flipped back around to the original thinking. What this means is that no effect Monday and Tuesday, with conditions somewhat similar to what we've had the past few days as it is, other than a better chance of some thunder North Parts of the state today. 

Image of atmospheric 'precipitable water' from the GFS Model
(Global Forecast System) for Monday sunrise.
Note the lower right corner  showing the leading edge of deeper moisture.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of a shower or two from the Cape and South sunrise on through the remainder of the day, and maybe some thunder interior to west side of state. 

Here's where changes will be watched for. The latest GFS damps the wave out to cross South Florida on Wednesday  then to get caught up in the next front (see above image)...  converges into the front for Thursday afternoon as it approaches. Could be a chance of some heavy type thunderstorm activity on this day as a result of that occurs, but much will change before that time in regard to the models.  In any case, Thursday appears to be the day with the best rain chance in quite some time to come, from then and beyond as well.

BEYOND THURSDAY: Chances of showers/thunder South Central/South Florida as front goes through with big drying trend to follow...notable by Saturday morning and through the weekend.

Tropical Wave Next Week to Affect Florida?

GFS Depiction of "Precipitable Water" throughout the "Atmospheric Weather Producing Column" has been showing something similar to the above depiction for two straight days, coupled with what looks 'like' a bona fide easterly wave

TODAY - FRIDAY: Little change from the past days with a slight increase in moisture/humidity going into Friday specifically. Otherwise, winds in the afternoon becoming more Southeast with time and a little stronger than past days as well beginning Thursady.

SATURDAY: A slight surge in moisture from the ESE to SE is so far shown to work up the East Coast and more of the state beginning after midnight Friday night to be fully in place across at least the South half of the state by early afternoon, Saturday. Chance of showers mostly with this activity though some thunder might not be able to be ruled out. So far, this looks like a 'one-day' affair as the moisture is drawn further north and west, out of the picture, though some showers could continue over the weekend toward the west 1/2 of the state.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: So far, looks more like back to status quo of little rain chance but all eyes are now on watching this 'easterly wave' type looking 'thing' coming from the tropics region . The GFS has shown this for 6 straight runs now, and shows no sign of that ending so far. Just exactly what will happen with whatever it is finally decided to be by "Them" is unknown...but guidance continues to be a little bouncy concerning whether the moisture will make it to Florida before a cold front from the Plains sweeps in and pulls it all out to the north. It'll be a race with time is what it appears to be, but so far the GFS says the 'wave' wins out. 


The latest GFS run from 2AM EDT (06Z) goes so far as showing a resultant weak surface low forming over South Central Florida  the following day making for a big rain shower/ thunderstorm day on Wednesday beginning in the mid-late morning through late afternoon.  

But, beyond Wednesday, the front having gone through, it's back to dry weather and little more to speak of.

Some Thunderstorms Today/Tonight, Some Large Rainfall Possible

"There's Got to be a Morning After"

"MAY DAY!  MAY DAY! "

"ARCUS  DEFINES THE GUST FRONT OF STORM:  MAY 1, 2014"

TODAY: Not much change from  past 'blog posts' regarding today and tomorrow. Frontal boundary is located close to if not just south of I-4 and little change in location is expected today. Some flood watch or two for a county has been hoisted over along the west coast as a result of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall there, but not so sure that the focus won't shift to the east coast later today through Saturday.

Other than cloud cover resulting in less instability as was expected to occur, winds aloft will be increasing as will upper level divergence going into later today through Saturday as the mid-upper level troughs lower in latitude and shift east from their present locations. The mid-upper level trough supporting this frontal boundary is still located way back across East Central Texas extending Northeastward but will nudge in during the next 24 hours increasing speed shear aloft.

Though impossible to forecast, it might be worth watching for a " later in the day 'outflow' " extending southward from the current area of rainfall  resulting in a new focus area south of the current area of rain. How far south that outflow might go though, if it happens at all, is up in the air. 

Therefore, in speculation, we might see some unexpected rainfall totals later today or tonight into Saturday somewhere along the east coast.

BEYOND SATURDAY: Not expecting mentionable weather for a number of days with a return to near normal early May weather, minus any rain chances.

 

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS LINK SHOWS "FRONTO-GENESIS
AT THE SURFACE WITHIN THE RED CIRCLES

Chance of an Isolated Stronger Storm Today, Rain Chance Thru Saturday

"Banana River Storm along the Eastern Shores - Cape Canaveral, Florida"

TODAY: Some minor differences from the past few days with,  as always, a few hiccups between model guidance both between models and individual runs within any given model (in regard to the short term).

Rather than spending too much time with nit-picking details that likely will never materialize anyway, the only thing that stands out different today from the past two days is that both the NAM (which I rarely rely on any more) and also the short term RAP model runs are showing stronger upward vertical velocities along the east coast from Brevard south to St. Lucie Counties with a bullseye over Central to Southern Brevard county, at least as of 11AM. 

The proverbial " fly in the ointment " is that this occurs too early in the day, and ends up amounting to nothing when otherwise it could indicate the better chance for a  "near severe" (storm) or two. But, given those are rather recent depictions, the blog post includes to highlight that region as 'possible strong storms' for that reason and that reason only. There was a recorded gust of 72 m.p.h. yesterday by the Haulover canal on the north side of  no-man's land Kennedy Space Center just as a side note.. otherwise, gusts were in the 40 mph range with most storms which really isn't all that unusual for a thunderstorm.  

Also in looking outside, it's clear we are once again contending with a con- factor of high thin clouds over north and central Florida from time to time; but for parts of Central it might prove to be irrelevant, since low levels winds will advect heat and instability from the more cloud free skies over Southern Florida, as they blow from the SW-SSW into Central Florida underneath the thin , high canopy. 

In general , a sea breeze will again form but be more 'side-shore' and closer to the coast than the past two days (I suspect),  which would mean the stronger activity might occur further east today .  

COULD BE WORSE. Images below were posted to TWITTER and FACEBOOK showing the storm that generated the EF-4 Rated Tornado the other day in Mississippi. 

Could be some lingering activity beyond 9pm along the east coast from Brevard  and/or  Indian River Counties tonight in the form of light rain as was the case the past 2 evenings. 

"Suspect Area -51" in purple.
Otherwise some storms with the main hazard being lightning 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida today will be located tomorrow across North Central to Central Florida and remain in the area around I-4 tomorrow and perhaps further south on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness and showery activity is possible with some heavy rainfall possible on Saturday  I-4 toward the Beach Line Zone. 

So far, Saturday seems to be the least decent day due to either increased rain chances and/or cloud cover, but quickly improving conditions will manifest on Sunday as the front clears to the south and the atmosphere dries out significantly. Our  few days recently of 75F dew points appears to be coming to an end shortly.

After Saturday, rain chances are zero for quite a few number of days ahead.

Another Active Day Possible - Rain Chances through Saturday

TRICKY Forecast today with guidance varying from showing
a worst case scenario to close to a "No Case" Scenario.
This depiction is closer to the 'worst case' depiction 

TODAY: It was tempting to post the same image as yesterday for today's scenario as it is,  since mid morning dynamics are beginning to mimic yesterday's set up, at least on paper as of the time of this writing. 

Instability is not shown to be quite as strong on the Mesoscale analysis page today, but the LDIS (Local Data Integration System) which runs locally is showing more instability than yesterday...so which is it? Sounding showed a lot of dry air aloft and MESO shows pretty strong downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a result meaning it could be tough to get any serious storms going, but once one can go, the trend should be set for the rest to follow suite for the potential of small hail and/or strong wind gusts. 

The question is, "Can they even get going?". This post  falls in line with Official Outlets for the most part  though location for strongest activity likely is leaning too far to the east as was the case in the posted image yesterday. 


Being on the coast is a bit misleading as a steady river / sea breeze is blowing from the SSE, yet inland locations show something quite a bit different with light south winds . Guidance is showing winds just above the deck from the SW at around 15 KTS which would keep activity pegged more toward the east, but the KSC sounding did not show this to be the case at all, thus, the strongest activity might be located a bit further inland than what is shown in this image. The higher chance of some stronger activity is due to a number of factors combined with that upper level divergence 'might' increase across the North half of the state later today. The JAX area for better chances of severe per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was omitted from this post.

BEYOND: As noted previously, every day will be a case by case basis with more thunder possible through Friday,  but probably lowering in strength as a result of more cloud coverage as the frontal boundary eases toward Central Florida and goes quasi-stationary going toward Friday and/or Saturday. 

The front should clear all but the FLorida Keys on Sunday afternoon or so and remain to the south. No big rain chances are then foreseen for nearly a week after this coming weekend,  for the most part.

Isolated Strong Storms Are "Possible" Today after 5PM - 8PM

 

TODAY: Latest morning guidance shows moderate to strong instability continues to reside off the Florida East coast to be advected inland with the east coast sea breeze. Steering above the level of the sea breeze is from the SW-SSW near 10-12 knots toward the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet. If the depth of the sea breeze extends up toward 2000 ft or so, winds at that level (so far) are also from the SW-SSW and therefore hard to be too sure of just exactly how far inland it will work this afternoon,  but suspect it might not make it as far as the Orlando METRO area or if so, perhaps MCO area at best. 

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold for this time of year per the KSC morning sounding which is a sign of a strong storm signal given other factors are present as well, but guidance indicates some warming will occur as the day progresses. Suspect some showers could go up along the sea breeze as there is more moisture today than yesterday, and one did manage to go up down in Indian River County west of Vero Beach proper along the sea breeze with less moisture present.

There are some other meteorological parameters that are derived from equations that would support strong activity today, but very isolated, such as some pockets of dry air. 

The additive bonus that goes without saying,  but that which models cannot account for at least not very accurately,  is the sea breeze convergence factor coupled with any outflows from even only rainshowers that set up boundaries prior to late day time frame when heating has been maximized and various lake and sea breezes begin to interact in random fashion. 

Those combined with the aforementioned  enhanced low level helicities east of I-95 toward Central Florida and toward the interiors up to the storm base level could give rise to some decent true to life thunderstorm activity given the current situation, unless things change radically between now and then. The down play toward North Central is a thin veil of high level cirrus clouds that are a result of thunderstorms over the panhandle region this morning.

BEYOND: More storms are possible through Friday, but each day will be on the  "Play it as it Comes" . Other days before then could see some strong storms as well; e.g. The NAM model from overnight showed more so tomorrow.  The front and storm system related to the severe weather in parts of the Deep South is expected to make headway through Florida late Saturday.

Below is only a make up of an area the blogger is watching for today for potentially damaging storms most concentrated wise; official outlets have the details though.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    

Chance of Early to Mid Evening Showers and Perhaps Thunder - Increasing Chance on Thursday

Chance of early to mid evening showers and maybe some thunder. Click on images to enlarge.