Thunder, Some With Strong Wind Gusts, Possible Today Certain Areas

Moon over Canaveral 

TODAY: Frontal boundary near the Florida - GA border to wiggle south in the next 24 hours into Central to South Central if not South Florida depending on which model one prefers. The GFS says all the way, the latest NAM just about says it breaks up too much to almost be deemed worthy of notice. The new GFS is not out yet .  

Will side with consistency of the GFS for now from the past 2 days. If the NAM verifies, this entire post goes out the window though in favor for better storm chances Central post Wednesday and Thursday (NAM) which is directly in opposition with the Global Forecast System (GFS) regurgitation.

Otherwise, cloud cover will be a big player today in regard to what happens where. High clouds across much of the North could impede significantly afternoon activities as a result of early day thunder along the NW Coast north of Cedar Key spreading out the high clouds as will be seen in the  image to follow (below). 

Conditions are not favorable at time for storms across West Central as most models are depicting and in agreement with. As a result for Central and North Central, the better storm chances will be at least over the East 1/2 of the state if only the eastern 1/3.  Across the north, mainly north of I-4, it looks like light to moderate rains with embedded thunder unless the clouds clear out.

Further South, Southwest Florida from near Okeechobee County (south parts) toward Venice/Ft. Myers in from the coast could see stronger but more isolated activities as evidenced by the Microburst Downburst Potential (MDPI) Index from the Mesoscale analysis page which supposed is drawing it's information from the Miami and Tampa Soundings and extrapolating those values across that region. Also perhaps inland of th coast toward it for Martin, St Lucie, and maybe Indian River toward Vero Beach could see a good storm nearby.

Again, cloud cover and inland extent of sea breezes combined with outflow boundaries which manifest as a result of early day activity will determine what happens where and is generally unpredictable down to any exact location. 

Steering toward the East to East South East if not Southeast (which means storm coming from the NW to NNW) except along' apparent' storm motions which result from propagation along pre-existent boundaries (mostly true for South Florida in that regard).

BEYOND: Tomorrow per the GFS the front will slide into South Central by early morning at least and progress further toward the Southern Tip by night fall if not sooner. The upper level trough might be to the east of Central and North with weak high pressure to follow and thus descending air motions suppressing convectively rising air currents (convection) would limit to totally prohibit thunderstorm activities; and cloud cover 'might' be an issue as well. Thus sky conditions on  Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are just a bit uncertain. 

On the other hand, the new NAM says 'Not so"...for now, I think that is a new development in the model run so will discard in favor of GFS consistency across the past few days as noted earlier in the post.

TEMPERATURES  - not 'much' change in afternoon highs though they could come to be closer to the mid 80Fs if not some lower 80Fs at peak hearing esp. near the coast, with morning being  the bigger player: in the lower to mid 70Fs statewide which would be mostly noticeable along the east coast beach areas specifically since inland areas have already been experiencing cooler mornings all along away from the warmer ocean waters. 

FUTURE RAIN CHANCES UNCERTAIN : It's hard to tell at this point with all the future uncertainties due to model disparities if on say Thursday or Friday we will see rain/and or thunder in areas south of I-4, cloud cover, or none of the above. But suspect thunder is the least likely of all.

FALL WEATHER TO COME?: GFS hints at a more 'fallish feel' to the air sometime around the 18th - 21st, which is a fairly consistent climatological possibility. However, it will be minor. The bigger aspect to the situation is the more noticeable lack of summer   activity as opposed to it truly feeling and looking like fall. Less summery equates to fall in that case.

Weak Low Traverses South Florida Today - Disrupts Forecastablility

"Thursday Afternoon Over the Atlantic of Brevard County"

TODAY: A weak surface low from the Bahamas is at time traversing South Florida and is clearly evident on visible satellite animations to be targeting and area just north of Port Charlotte on the Southwest Coast in several hours. There is no rain associated with the low itself at this time, but instead most precipitation is associated with an inverted trough rotating around the top side of the low. Another convergent band 'might' manifest later today to move in along Indian River to maybe parts of Brevard County in the mid-late afternoon hours, though most forecast packages from surrounding offices are not very convincing on exactly what might evolve. There is another area off the Southeast Coas that could move in on Broward , Dade, and Palm Beach Counties though in several hours if it holds together. Otherwise, today is quite a bit out of the norm in regard to any normal 'synoptic' scale features (large scale) due to this 'disruption'.

RED CIRCLE highlight the area of lower pressure as noted
by the swirling pattern within.
Yellow area is pointing in the general direction of motion of this feature
Orange shows where Thunder could be most likely, if at all, though
an occasional thunder is always possible as far north as
Southern Volusia not including
perhaps the panhandle region. 

 

CLOSER VIEW of THE AOI - AREA OF INTEREST

"Page Break Image for Blog - That's a Promise"

BEYOND: More chances of showers overnight and mostly pre-dawn to early afternoon hours east side working inland to the west coast late day, though never is a shower entirely impossible most anywhere at any given time. The least likely though is inland over night, and this stands through the weekend into Monday.

TUESDAY: A series of cold fronts (2) will work as far as the Deep South toward the Panhandle by Tuesday if not into Central Florida, but in that, a very weakened state. So far the implication has been anywhere from remaining stationary over Central Florida to clearing the whole way through with stronger onshore Easterly flow to follow, much like it  would be for  early fall event (say around the first day of Fall, Sept 21st) would be. But again, that's ahead of where Tuesday will be at.

 Increasing chances of thunder around the I-4 and inland to the west and perhaps south Florida but East Central direct might remain 'in the dry'. Pleanty of more time to ascertain.

WEDNESDAY: SW Flow aloft as the Atlantic Ridge axis is pressed south by a secondary deepening of the Large Mother  Low Pressure Area around the Great lakes region. With that, storms could be directed toward the east coast for anywhere from 1-4 days depending on what happens with the front. It's too far out in time to know with any certainty. Sea breeze convergence activity alone is going to become harder and  harder to come by now that fall approaches and the day's are getting shorter to the point that even one minute might make or break it.

BEYOND: Guidance has removed any tropical treat (threat) from the Atlantic  (one letter can make a world of difference) but rather the notion is to watch the Southern Gulf toward the far western Caribbean for a moisture surge at least, to a full blown Tropically named Entity to approach the Panhandle region. That has been the trend so far since last blog post and several model runs, but is easily changeable in all regards considering this does not truly begin to manifest per guidance well into next week (late). But if so, some much wetter weather could be in store for the entire state at various times from Tuesday on for the following week, first regard to the potentially decaying cold front, and secondly to what might come out of the Tropical Caribbean.

Weather Weeks 2-3 Could Develop PMS - A " Particularly Messy Situation"

Sunrise Monday

TODAY - MONDAY: Pattern of late continues through week's end with deepening easterly flow. One if not maybe two 'tropical inverted troughs'  (acronym omitted) in the next 7 days to slide from east to west across the state with periodic dry slots so timing of precipitation could be tricky on some of the days. Most likely, with the advent of their passage the east coast could see a better chance of overnight to late morning coastal to inland showers with thunder occurring more to the west side and especially toward SW Florida during the mid afternoon to early evening with either one or both of them (if there are two).

BEYOND: GFS has been showing two areas of Tropical Interest. One being low pressure to form over the Southern Gulf near the Yucatan, the other approaching from the Central into the Western Atlantic. Whether one or both of those will even Manifest is still a question mark given how far out in time they are forecast to emerge into the limelight. Meanwhile...

TUESDAY: The first Cold Front of the Fall Season impinges south affecting much of the country with much cooler to cold temperatures to near Freezing especially around the Great Lakes - but for Florida , Southern Texas, and Southern parts of the SW U.S. (for the most part in general). Not one, but perhaps a second 'slider' to re-enforce the situation.  

By Tuesday thunderstorms could become yet more numerous for the entire state ending the current pattern in place entirely, to be closing in on even the east coast barrier islands or close enough for caution. Some of those if the GFS is correct could become borderline severe if the GFS trend continues with cold air aloft and stronger upper -mid level winds in place...but getting ahead of one's self.  One if not both fronts are currently forecast to meander 'somewhere' across the state, but at this point the guidance shows only a very broad indiscernible boundary with SW winds in the mid levels making for continued thunderstorms area wide unless the front pushes through with greater certainty and drier air, though at this time, not expecting that to be the case. This should be expected given how far out in time this period is,   details lacking greatly.

MEANWHILE: Over the Far Southern Gulf and the Western Atlantic Guidance has been showing for 3 runs two emerging situations as shown below:

TWO CLOSED LOWS PER THE GFS MODEL BY "NEXT" SATURDAY
WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE RELIABLE

  
Thus, this Particularly Messy Situation is in both  (1) model guidance as well as/ and/ or   (2) increasing chances of more rainfall on top of already damped grounds from an already good wet season  in place. Any tropical entity to actually cross the state or near it with a respectable impact if even in regard to rainfall even if indirectly  would only frustrate the situation in underground water table levels. 

In short, could get interesting over Florida in a variety of ways in the last half of September.

Keeping Awake To What The Future Holds

Large Rainfall Totals Again Possible / Dangerous Lightning Main Threat

STORM NEAR CANAVERAL CRUISE TERMINALS SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WELL REMOVED FROM THE RAINFALL. LATER IMAGE IN POST SHOWS A SURPRISING TRANSFORMATION THIS STORM TOOK

TODAY: Somewhat similar to yesterday with a slightly later start to convection due to early day cloud cover. Mixing ratios throughout the atmospheric column for storm formation are in place for storm growth though lapse rates are not spectacular, especially because of cloud cover offsetting day time heating. Latest satellite image is showing a clearing trend with cumulus cloud growth already occurring where high clouds are not in place. Cool mid level temperatures though with precipitable water values at or above 2" means big rains possible, and those cool temperatures would sustain cloud coverage and lingering rains to well after dark . 

Steering is slowly toward the NE north of Lake Okeechobee primarily, more so from Route 50 in North Central Florida and north. Greatest instability is over the South Half of the state. 

Storms and showers that form along the sea breeze and Lake Okeechobee could propagate mainly north and east with time, with coolest mid level temperatures over North Central where suspect the end of day rains will be most prevalent once all the outflow boundaries build up on that side and storm growth, or broadening turns into a broad shield of rainfall.  Since there is cloud coverage and slower heating, the sea breeze might not make it as far inland before showers begin to erupt, but one way or the other many areas will see rainfall today, though not all. 

Localized flooding possible in prone areas, especially where rains have fallen heavily the past few days already in those areas; Osceola County for example and North Florida as well near Gainesville and west of JAX. And for today, parts of Brevard County where heavy rain fell this morning.  Lightning biggest hazard - noting that yesterday some storms exhibited lightning well before rainfall entered into the picture. Very dangerous in that regard so best not wait until dark clouds are near by...if the same repeats itself today.

TOMORROW: A similar pattern is in place in the wind fields aloft and at the surface, but exactly how that will pan out will only be determined again by what occurs later today and into tonight, and possibly over night into the pre-dawn hours. The east coast especially in Central and North Brevard had some heavy rainfall this morning before sunrise,  for example.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, this day seemed to be a transition day, the NAM still showing a day similar to Monday, but the GFS is showing the transition in place which would keep the afternoon dry at the coast. Therefore, this day remains a bit uncertain for the immediate coast other than possible early morning to noon time activity.

BEYOND: Activity begins to decrease in coverage as more easterly steering flow (for east to west) sets in favoring the Interior and western side of the state.

SAME STORM AS FIRST IMAGE. RAINFALL IS TO THE PHOTOGRAPHER'S BACK. AT TIME OF PHOTO, WINDS WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH into the formation shown.

Heavy Storms With Isolated Cases of Stronger Winds Possible East Central

ON THIS DAY LAST YEAR - LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP, COCOA , FL

TODAY: Broad low pressure through the mid-levels circulates across North Florida and South Georgia places all of Central in generally a WSW-SW storm steering flow (toward the NE-ENE). Atmospheric moisture is plentiful as well, which could make for again some heavier rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches.

Greatest instability will be over South Florida into South Central, with winds just above the surface from the SW-SSW-S this instability might be able to advect toward East Central if activity holds off until after 2-3pm in that area. The East Coast Sea-breeze would be able to manifest and penetrate perhaps as far inland as I-95 if not further, though any early day activity after noon time until 2pm could offset that boundary with outflows that form from earlier showers further inland. Steering should be toward the east coast just a little stronger than yesterday. Some winds gusts in the 40-50 mph range were reported at very observation points used by the National Weather Service, with one gust of 58mph, though some of them were  40-50 feet above the ground. 

Water overloading with such high moisture content along the sea breeze / outflow convergence areas as storm begin to collapse could result in strong winds again though which outflow well from the source of origin in almost any direction. Thus, once the debut is over and the show gets going, almost anything could happen from that point on, almost anywhere toward the East half of the state south of I-4.

SUNDAY: Sunday again looks to be another variation of yesterday and what today will do, but again, it will much be contingent upon remaining cloud coverage from today's activities and where anything might surprise us over night. Yesterday there was some upper level energy over Central which is not showing up today, but is over North Florida right now and hence the activity there.
Too many variables for certainty regarding the most likely regions for storms, but regardless, they will be occurring somewhere tomorrow in similar fashion.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Monday appears to be similar with ample moisture with weakening eastward steering but not entirely. Tuesday is a bit up for grabs as to whether or not the pattern will be fully broken down yet or not, though at this point it appears most activity will remain over the interior outside of overnight to mid-morning isolated coastal activities either side of the state .

It can be noted that during to just after the first week of September the generic thunder storm season can start to draw to a close over all for certain parts of the state, as it has in past years, namely at the east coast. Though they can still occur, the easterly flow begins to dominate more and more going into Mid-Month as high pressure settles in north and east of the state in mid-Atlantic. The last day true thunderstorms manifested near the immediate east Central coast last year as part of the annual cycle was September 6.

Chance of a Few Stronger Storms Today SW Florida and Parts of Central

TODAY: Inverted trough swept across Florida yesterday from east to west and is now position diagonally west of the state for the most part and will remain so over the next two days; also a broad but weak cyclonic circulation over mostly the Northern 2/3rds of the state in Georgia is in place meaning SW-W winds aloft. A ridge axis will be located from near Lake Okeechobee toward Direct Central as time goes by toward Sunday and especially Monday. With winds aloft being weak regardless, this will allow all the west and east coast sea breezes to operate with slightly colder air aloft than was present for the past 10 days. Mixing ratios are more favorable today for storms to form without mixing out (if the RAP model guidance is correct). Under the assumption of HRRR model and GFS model trends are realized is upon which this post is based mostly

 

 ABOVE: Image is showing only a small part of the trough (red) which extends actually well to the SW into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is across South Central with westerly winds between those two features in the steering level altitude for storms, though very light. Storms could drift over Central toward the East around 5-10 miles per hour outside of any storms that could form along boundary interactions. Most instability is over South Florida however, so suspect the strongest storms outside of fluke outflow/sea breeze boundary interaction will be along the west coast sea breeze south of Sarasota toward Ft Meyers.

BEYOND: Each day will be a take as it comes contingent on pre-existing late morning conditions and the extent of remnant cloud coverage from the previous day. Some drying out appears to be in order though by Monday as storms will trend more toward the interior and away from the coasts by Sunday, with less coverage. 

Chance of Stronger Storms Late Thursday through The Weekend

"Like Something From Thousands of Years Ago"

TODAY/WEDNESDAY: Little change from latest pattern of last few days so not much to say as temperatures aloft won't be varying too much and moisture will sufficient for greatest coverage along to north of I4 toward the west side of the state, as well as toward SW Florida. Other than a random ocean showers coming ashore, the east coast remains in the clear in regard to rainfall with storms piling up along the west side, with strongest storms very late day along the west coast sea breeze collision with the east coast one. 

Changes appear to be on the way though on Thursday and more definitely Friday through Monday at least of next week.

"Summer Treasures"

FRIDAY-SEVERAL DAYS ONWARD:  Strong to perhaps a very isolated Marginal Severe  Storm or two Possible . As the GFS has been trending and perhaps another model comes to close agreement per a National Weather Service (NWS) Discussion, colder air loft is approaching. Colder than has been around for a few weeks even now with 500mb temperature to drop up to 5 degrees from what they have been and 700mb about 2-3 degrees, varying at times. 

This amounts to stronger storms, with steering varying from slowly toward the east to a stand still and perhaps a bit toward the west in the next week. Most activity to be 10 miles inland or more from either coast. With 700mb temps not 'too cool' most activity will hold off until after the sea breezes set in but that will have to be taken on a daily basis as the time gets closer. Thursday into Friday will be the biggest transition day and those days tend to have a few surprises. 

POSSIBLE REASON FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE WITH STRENGTH: The GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) has been implying perhaps 2-3 open TUTT (Tropical Upper (Level) Tropical Troughs) could pass by to the south to over Florida, and maybe a tropical wave or two. each   associated with colder air aloft and/or greater moisture. Varying sky conditions at almost any time day or night if the GFS implications unfold, though it was the latest run this morning that made the strong implication   so far. Time will tell. But the overall scheme of things is for a change from what has been the pattern of late. The locations least likely to be most impacted by the cold air aloft and increased moisture is the Florida East coast  general within 2 miles of the coast since eastward steering looks like it will be too weak for storm impacts there, though not entirely so.

Strong Storms Possible West Central Late Today

Engulfed by Atmospheric Waves of Turbulence in Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: Most vital stats are in place for the prerequisites of late day storms, some strong, toward the west half of Florida particularly Southwest Central to as far north as almost Ocala. Other storms though could become strong from boundary collisions once the pot gets mixed.  With east to west steering the bigger storms will occur along the west coast sea breeze later outside of outflow from earlier activity that 'out rushes' from activity toward that boundary particularly from east of Sarasota to Brooksville (which is located not too far north of Tampa Bay but in from the coast). The east side should remain mainly dry but for a chance of an overnight to early morning shower or two near or before sunrise such as the thunderstorm offshore the Cape  pictured below. Some stronger activity could occur WSW of Lake Okeechobee though not shown below.

View over Cape Canaveral Yesterday

SUNDAY: Steering doesn't change much at all for many days ahead, the stickler is primarily moisture availability on any given day. As of now, Sunday appears to be a bit less active, but then the next day there is more moisture, and then the next day less, as if waves of moisture pass through with subsequent drying; but timing of moisture coincident and critical to the afternoon hours - post peak heating- really is too difficult to determine with a  high degree of certainty.

"Jonah in  the Whales Mouth  "

 

BEYOND: Not much change nor has one been realized by any of the models. The west to east steering of storms streak of Summer 2014 seems to be over and little change is expected but  toward the end of the statewide storm season. Possibly toward the end of the first week of September or into the second a change will occur. Thus, the only chance of rains on the east coast will be oceanic in nature.

Unusually "Warm" Today - Possible Showers/Storms in Only Select Locations

TODAY: Very warm today, warmer than yesterday even..but not quite record breaking? (See below statistics from the Melbourne NWS for an example pertaining to their area of responsibility in Central Florida as a start.) In regard to rain chances the more prevalent agreed upon location is over interior portions of South Florida. The only other spot that has been consistently appeared in the GFS model  across 4 runs is eastern portions of North Central late, as of after 6-7pm through even after midnight. That area, if it occurs, has included that area shown in the graphic (in general). It might only end up being cloud cover in some areas if at all, especially over Brevard or East Central Brevard.

BEYOND: Frontal boundaries at various levels across the state at various times as the parent lows are well to the north of Florida, but the predominant fixture is high pressure now over the Southeast Gulf building northward and expanding into most of the Deep South region and even further north than that in coming days making for a more northerly flow with a steering toward the western component. This would mean mostly dry conditions for the east coast south of I-4 to maybe the Cape area at times for several days, with most activity otherwise west of I-95.

The only change to the pattern is shown in the form of something from the tropics now referred to as an Invest (an area under investigation).  With that high in place, nothing will be coming in from the west for quite a while. 

Guidance has varied on strength and direction of this area of interest from run to run, but regardless of what this area does at least at this point, no significant changes in the current unfolding pattern is shown to be revealed until the August 26-27 time frame...or in about a week as things stand as of the 2AM run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast model. 

Name That Tune

"You Askin' Me?!"

TODAY: Dry pattern in place at least through Friday though models differ significantly on both where and when and in what form (strength of storms) the rains will be in a broad sense of the words.

But for today, most models already busted up near I-10 where some showers that are 'not supposed to be there' are now occurring. And in the model where they are occuring they are doing so further south, or in other words per that model, they are not there. But extrapolation of current events combined with satellite llop interpretation wihtou trying to make too many forward guesses (suppsedly educated)..would mean a chance of an Isolated storm or at least..a patch of cloud cover toward Central Florida very late if not toward to after sunset though after sunset would not jive with consistency of late. That said, a  graphic might tell the story a litlee better and even this can't cover the bases. Might be easier just to say that the least likely place for showers today is all of Central, esp. west central.

WEDNESDAY: In General we can go with the 2-Day pattern philosophy and so that outside of extremely extenuating circumstances , tomorrow will be similar to today but probably even drier on the state wide basis..or will it? In looking at the latest North American Model (NAM) it is implying that it will be quite dry but what's that on Thursday?

THURSDAY: In general, guidance agrees on the main synoptic scale mid-upper level features with a mid level trough crossing Florida along the eastern side mainly over-riding a surface high pressure area building into the Dixie Southeast, while the surface trough is nowhere to be found below it being fully absorbed by that pesky High that will be with us for at least a solid week. 

Yet, with the passage of the upper level feature temperatures around 8000 -12000 feet cool pretty well (?). ..The NAM is showing some really good CAPE (instability) on Thursday and strong vertical mid level velocities along East Central which would mean an isolated strong to severe storm late day toward Southern Brevard, Eastern Osceola, Indian River to interior Volusia County in general with more showers/storms further north. On the other hand, the GFS imposes no such animal so we'll see. But side bar, this blogger has paid little head to the NAM model beyond one day for over a year now, as it simply fails all too often (at least in the local sense).

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Though moisture will increase eventually most activity might only be realized inland to the west side of the state due to the storm steering currents (wind direction aloft). That means, dry for the far east side of the state up and down the coast for QUITE some time. The first truly dry spell almost all summer is in progress perhaps. But when will it end? Sea breeze convergence activity is in no way shown out into September at this rate, except for perhaps the west side which is a good two weeks. We'll see. 

Loco For Thunder

TODAY: Loco for thunder, get'm while they're hot;
               In coming days, they will be naught.

Today appears to be the last day of a chance of storm coverage greater than around 20 percent by National Weather Service Standards. Greatest coverage area could end up being around the North and east side of Lake Okeechobee. Latest RAP model implies a late sea breeze convergence zone toward sunset after the atmosphere is already in the stabilization process but wouldn't hold it against it if storms can manifest (one or two) late toward that time in the Orlando southward  areas and north along the Suwannee River Valley Basin well west of JAX proper.  A stronger storm might be able to manifest somewhere in Brevard as well as near the Big Lake as a result of sea breeze outflow boundary meetings, but due to lack of a true west meets east collison until very late (as  implied as of 8AM only)...greater coverage of anything other than random garden variety 'thundershowers' is not anticipated.

BEYOND: Atlantic ridge axis which has been south of Central toward the Big Lake as far south as the Straits will lift north and pinch off in coming days. A part of which will bubble northward into the Dixie area after a trough passes by today and tomorrow. 

From that point on the winds aloft become more Northerly due to clockwise circulations around the high pressure area,  and drier/suppressing atmosphere in the uppers.... but moistures remains in the lowers. The overall experience will likely be very warm temperatures inland away from the sea breezes with higher heat indices due to moist surface dewpoint air with few clouds and/or showers to squelch the flames. 

So, while coastal residents are saying 'business as usual' , they will be basking in ignorance of what is occurring inland where  folks  in disgruntlement will  be crying, "who turned up the heat so late in the summer?!" Hope the schools have A/C up and in good working order or there is going to be some mighty gripey kids coming home for those whose school week begins today.

Otherwise, not much chance of rain for east coasters for a good week at least and only a slight increase of it much of anywhere until late week.

Top Image Courtesy of Jim "Dryliner"  (Cortez, CO)

Isolated Stronger Activity Possible after 3:30PM - Rain Chance Decline through Thursday

"Storm Off Cape Canaveral Saturday"

TODAY: Very brief post today as from the blogger's perspective virtually every model seems to be off in some way or another. Additionally, could not see the latest KSC sounding which is now DAYS OLD to the general public to verify if they initialized very well, but can only presume that did. Regardless, satellite imagery  and current radar trends are not matching well with the latest RAP or GFS model, and as a result the Local Mesoscale Analysis Page from SPC isn't panning out too well either. The LDIS (Local Data Integration System) from MLB seems to be handling the overall situation much better as far as the way satellite interpretation at least appears.

Today's post is based on latest current events and how the GFS was trending the past several days for how today will work out. It's a mere rough guestimate without trying to get into the nicks and crannies esp. retarding South Florida  

That being written, isolated storms or showers to progress eastward along the west coast sea breeze front. East coast sea breeze to form mainly from the Cape south if not the coast of Volusian..and progress inland to around I-95 if not further than that south of Sebastian Inlet. 

Suspect that area might be where the strongest of activity occurs (IN GENERAL) but other activity might occur further south around the Big Lake Okeechobee as well. Temperatures aloft are likely the same as they have been and the atmosphere is  a bit drier which could result in strong wind gusts late day..where a storm can form as  a result of two if not three or more boundary collisions. 

A solid funnel if not tornado was observed and video taken of one west of Boca location yesterday despite that the typical textbook 'tornadic environment' was not present. BUt that's Florida in the summer for you.  Just because something is in a text book doesn't always make it exclusively right.

 Perhaps more of a 'landspout' tornado, but either way makes no difference. If today ends up being anything like yesterday after 3 or 4PM we might see some funnels near to off shore, though no one is calling for it.

BEYOND: Is the main Florida thunderstorm season calling it quits or on summer vacation? Time will tell, but the trend has been for a marked overall decrease in storm activity as high pressure forms over parts of Dixie putting Florida on the descending circulation side coupled with a less moist airmass. 

After which,  a deep easterly flow might ensure which would favor the west side of the state, though moisture is shown to be lacking even then compared to what we've had. 

TIme will tell, but it might be quite some time until we see the normal summer coverage of activity again, such as at least 10 days, and by then we'll nearly be in September and be able to see the end of the 'thunderstorm season' pot of gold  at the other end of the rainbow.

Chances Of Hefty Storms with East Coast Sea Breeze Today

Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: No real need to go into great details as conditions similar to yesterday with two exceptions. One being cloud cover from earlier thunderstorms over toward the west coast is spreading eastward. Thinking is this cloud cover will move out or burn off during the late morning hours but also provide the impetus for east coast sea breeze initiation combined with the weakening frontal boundary that has been close to I-10 the past two days reducing the pressure gradient at the lower levels. The big question to watch for any activity at all is over east central if clouds do not clear out. With the possibility that they will, the graphic is marked as such with possibly heftier storms to occur with more lightning and higher rainfall totals  in the red area by the time the day is through. Some winds could gust to 40-45mph like in the past few days in the vicinity of the stronger storms.

YESTERDAY'S larger storms occurred from Southern Volusia southward to Palm Beach County, but the largest coverage of those ended up being just offshore as they strengthened on their way out to sea due to lack of any true sea breeze front making much inland progress (though there were some exceptions far south and in the general Sanford area).  

TOMORROW looks similar to today notwithstanding any other flies in the ointment such as the one for today with temperatures aloft expected to remain within 2 degrees of what they have been for quite some time now. Sea breezes to manifest otherwise with ample moisture and instability.

Storm Moving off North  Kennedy Space Center Yesterday

BEYOND: Storms again on Sunday with sea breezes active, but they become more sparse with rain chances going down for some areas and reducing yet even more through Wednesday. So far the better rain chances it appears will be over far north and far South Florida with a few isolated storms in between late in the day at the sea breeze convergence zone.

Will Uncivil War Ensue on the Eastern Front Today?

THE ONE DOLLAR QUESTION? Will the East Coast Sea Breeze
Manifest Prior to arrival of the
Wicked One from the West?

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: There really is not enough differences in the latest GFS available to go into greater detail over what holds true for today in the next two. West Coast sea breeze is already on the march as soldier storms erupt along the front lines marching eastward. The eastern side's front remains out at sea awaiting things to heat up over the interior in advance of the infantry. All in all, other than weak showers and some storms as like yesterday with some gusty winds. guidance does show an eastern sea breeze front coming ashore mainly south of The Cape. 

From the latest HRRR it (a  respectable penetration of the east coast's side) might not occur until after the west coast sea breeze has completed it's translation eastward. If that is the case, we can expect a few spots of greater activity than others, but nothing much beyond what we've seen the past few days. Even so, if the eastern battalion decides to come ashore and make some advances..the full assault might not be realized until after the advances work offshore under the momentum of the western front pressing them back toward the Gulf Stream. 

The advantage the East has today is a bit beyond the norm, which is why this is of interest. Latest Mesoscale Analysis based on the RAP model guidance is showing a Convective Available POTENTIAL Energy over 5000+ impeding on the Cape area. This is in the lower levels of High End Potential for very strong storms (canons are loaded with ample gunpowder), with an accompanying back of of -6C on the Lifted Index scale (which is sufficient but not high end). That's a lot of punching power! But regardless, if it is over a smaller area , backs to off shore, or simply dies off, it's worth watching. The better chance of a sea breeze prior to arrival of the West Coast brigade is further south of Ft Pierce though and not where all the ammo is being stored up. Otherwise, Carry oOn !

THE RED COATS ARE COMING!

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Other than the same questionable sea breeze of the east, temperatures in the mid levels might cool a bit but ww'll cross that Bridge Over the River Kwai  when we get to Tomorrow Never Dies.

"I See What You're Up To"