Much Cooler Sunday and Monday, Rain with some Desolate Storm Activity Today

Warm Weather To be Taking Off For A Time Late Week

TODAY: As suspected might occur, rain-showers and increasing cloud cover already in progress before sunrise. Infrared Satellite animation shows a large canopy of cloud cover associated with mainly rain-showers spreading across the north half of the state as of 530AM with rains underneath as shown in the next image. With the given conditions and no sign of improving sky conditions, expect cooler temperatures today mainly in the 70Fs to perhaps some lower 80Fs (warmer Southern portions). There could still be some thunder and maybe even a stronger storm or two, but very isolated if at all.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will be a bit northeasterly but light tomorrow as boundary appears will make to the Lake Okeechobee area and then lift back north going into Wednesday. Warmer on Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance of a shower but too low to get to specifics in regard to location and timing at this point.

FRIDAY: First true cold front in quite some time now to move through in the late Friday through early Saturday time frame, but will have to wait to narrow down on specifics given how far out in time the passage is from now. It might end up between up to 24 hours later for all we know at this point. Better chance of rain though associated with the boundary and possibly thunderstorms as well.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Sometime within this time frame is shown a significant cool down from the past 10 days or so that we've been experiencing, albeit temperatures have been running well above seasonal norms for quite some time. 

Latest GFS is showing some mid-upper 40Fs into Central with afternoons in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. This might be overkill though given the higher sun angle; regardless, much cooler weather is in store come at least later in the weekend into early next week, without a significant but only gradual warm up heading into mid week, next week. Nothing unbearable though, and rather short in duration as would be expected (at least).

'Marginal' Strong/Severe Storm Chance Monday Continues ...

"On the Lookout for Possible Storms Monday Afternoon - Early Evening"

TODAY: Some thin high clouds off and on might hold down high afternoon temperatures a bit, but mid -upper 80Fs still possible except near the east coast where the sea breeze has set in. Little to no chance of rain most locations though perhaps there could be some very small quick showers near the larger cloud breaks that persist much later today. Already some heavier showers occurring over the panhandle. Better chance for a shower would be east Central near I-95  US 1 as far south as the Ft Pierce area.

MONDAY: Little change in the overall synoptic scale pattern forecast going into Monday. Weak surface low over the Panhandle Gulf coast works south and east with a boundary toward Central Florida during the mid-afternoon and looses identity over East Central Florida by evening. Marginal instability at the surface and weak surface winds down play a potentially more 'rambunctious' set up for more wide spread convection (thunderstorms) with the strong 100+ knot left exit region collocated over east Central during 'prime time'  with  guidance  showing some spotty stronger upper vertical velocities over NE Florida primarily in the afternoon with a few shots across east central. 

All in all though,  any storms that would be strong or severe would be very isolated as shown by the morning NAM model simulated radar forecast and rather spotty GFS 'impression' , but those that can get going, especially if greater instability can be realized, could quickly go severe especially after 3 pm toward the east coast and earlier at spots toward the west coast and north of I4. A sample idea of the coverage for where any said storm could occur might look like this. 

There is a chance that an earlier round of showers could greatly stabilize the atmosphere across central Florida prior to noon time which would for the most part put the squash on stronger late day activity despite some of the otherwise favorable factors that will be in place for strong storms. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary is to wash out over Central Florida with temperatures overall appearing to be in the average range for this time of year, to just above.  These two days appear also to be the best chance of remaining dry though there is hardly a single day where guidance is not showing at least a shower here or there somewhere across Central.

Sunday Morning Bloom

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Now watching this time frame for another chance of showers to even storms in the Friday / Saturday time frame. Guidance is doing horrible on being consistent on the next frontal passage timing wise but continues to show a significant cool down heading toward either later Saturday or Sunday -- at this stage would not hedge any bets though. Overall, after Monday the rest of the week outside of any of those remote shower chances won't reveal much of anything different that what you've experienced at your location the past several days until later in the week. 

Strong - Severe Storms 'Might Be Possible' Monday North Half of State

Happy Blooms on the First Spring Morning of 2015

SUNDAY: Subtle changes at first in store Saturday Night (tonight) through Sunday as broad low pressure moves in across the Deep South States with two low pressure areas to form : one off the coast of North Georgia to South Carolina and the other near the Florida Panhandle at the low levels all within a much broader low pressure area with a 'cold front' joining these two lows.

The more southern low is forecast to weaken and drift East South East into Central Florida by mid-afternoon on Monday.

Sunday will see more westerly type winds most of the day (as opposed to today),  inhibiting the sea breeze but for along the immediate coast south of I-4 in general. Sunday looks much like last Sunday was in general with warmest temperatures west of the Banana River (more so west of US 1). A sea breeze convergence boundary should set up late in the day near I-95 but at this point storms are not expected though some showers might form from Brevard County and north close to the coast late in the day (or perhaps merely an increase in cloud cover only later in the day).

The 90th "Anniversary" of the Infamous Tri-State Tornado Was Recognized Earlier This Week

MONDAY: This is the big day in question. GFS Guidance (Global Forecast System) shows a chance  of mainly showers with perhaps thunder for the North Half of the State whereas the NAM (North American Model) indicates much greater low level instability and as a result, a greater storm chance. 

In both cases, the left exit  region of a 120 kt jet streak will be crossing across the North Half of the state during 'prime time' with very cold air aloft. Down play would be lack of low level convergence along the frontal boundary as winds are mainly parallel to the front but there is some turning going on in the mid-levels (though weak). Given the factors involved would watch for some strong storms though another down play might be antecedent cloud cover which would leave the atmosphere more stable and greatly reduce any strong/severe threat despite the presence of very strong winds and cold air aloft.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Cooler weather for a day or so most notably in the mornings, but overall a day or two of normal readings for this time of year with a return to above temperatures mid-late week. (Lately, the temperatures have been much above normal for this time of year.)

GREATER BEYOND: The GFS is introducing another strong storm chance next Monday - March 30th, but again, that is a new client on the TBD list for monitoring purposes only at this stage -  chances are that it will 'go away' with later model runs.

First Sunset of The (Spring) Vernal Equinox Tonight (6:45 PM EDT), Chance of Showers

"Bursting At the Seams for Spring "

TODAY - WEEKEND: Only minor variations each day in the current pattern. Late afternoon sea breeze convergence showers are possibly somewhere mainly from east of Orlando to West of US 1 though with west to east steering some might make it to off the coast late (especially if they can hold on after or toward dark). At this time of year with the ocean temperature as of this morning running from around 71-73F, the sea breeze often 'chokes off' whatever showers can form; thunder is not expected nor is there to be a very big coverage of showers (if any) . 

SPRING BEGINS tonight at 6:45 PM EDT with sunset close by - 7:34 PM.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: As noted, only minor variations on the running theme continues as late day 'heat lows' form over the interior peninsula with models at some points showing those to move off with a re-emergence of one to form the next day. The only real consequence of this would be some showers if ample moisture is available. Temperatures have been running between  5 - 15 F degrees ABOVE normal for a week now and the trend continues into next week. 

Noting that:  Mostly hose location over the eastern most barrier islands (along A1A are feeling those huge temperature variations in the afternoons where they are running well above 'normal' from time to time. The east coast sea breeze or even proximity of the ocean is making for slightly warmer mornings at the beaches but much cooler afternoons with the cool ocean breeze toning it down by at least 5-8F degrees from inland. 

MONDAY: This day shows (so far) the best chance for rain, with thunder possible (will watch to see if they might be strong). In the longer range the GFS has continually in the 9-12 day frame been showing a significant cool down in weather, but that keeps going by the wayside within 4-5 days of those time frames. This has been the trend for over a week; the models are willing but the reality is weak. And as such...as of the morning run next weekend might even feel a bit OVERLY cool with 50S -60Fs rough the clock which would be a bit of a shocker after all the warmer weather of late. We'll see.

Slight Chance of Showers North Central, Febru-Dreary to End on a Warm Tune

Tuesday Morning, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida only slowly sinking south through Wednesday (and much slower than previous guidance was showing a few days ago).  There appears to be a bit of a thermal trough setting up near I-4 which might sink south a bit during the afternoon. It also appears a weak disturbance might be coming in from the northeast Gulf along said 'boundary' though none of the models other than the short range HRRR and to a lesser degree the RAP suggest a rainfall potential later today. Regardless, radar is showing showers moving in toward the West Coast near to south of Cedar Key where those longer range models showed nothing, so will ride with the short term guidacne and intro a rain chance today (or increased cloud cover) mainly over North Central to perhaps parts of Central all north of SR 60 toward Central Tampa Bay region.

Warm east and south of Lake Okeechobee today with highs possibly well into the mid-80Fs. Otherwise lower 80Fs to upper 70Fs over most of Central and much cooler north of I4 to I10.

WEDNESDAY:Frontal boundary still slow to work south and into Central Florida perhaps not until early Thursday morning. Continued warm (outside of cloud cover) , e.g. 'above to near average for this time of year'.  Rain chance has shifted since last blog post from the 2pm -10pm time frame to a  about a 4AM - 9AM time frame Thursday morning or about 12 hours later.

THURSDAY: Front to clear Central as it stands now by noon time Thursday (probably sooner); cooler but not cold temperatures this day and perhaps some lingering cloud cover.

FRIDAY: Overall, this day appears might be a surprise 'cold afternoon' day with little warming after sunrise due to a chance of cloud cover and a 'cold air wedger'  down the east coast   into Central Brevard from NE winds off the cold shelf waters. Some guidance goes so far to imply some rain showers but would hold off on that for now.

Water Fountain at the  Cape Canaveral Resort 

SATURDAY: Easterlies ensure over night with temperatures holding steady near the coast to even warming a bit; suspect we might see a lot of stratocumulus clouds and maybe some light spritz of rain into late morning or early afternoon as a result near the coast, but it would be a low end chance with highs in the lowers 70Fs to upper 60Fs near the east coast north of Vero Beach.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY: This time frame so far shows normal to above normal temperatures for the 5 day stretch as winds become more southeast to south for an EXTENDED period of time. Possibly an interior shower or two due to sea breeze convergence mainly SW Florida on Sunday but otherwise dry and quite pleasant to close out Febru-Dreary, thankfully the shortest month.  

Coldest Temperatures of The Season to Rebound Quickly Saturday

Late December of 2010, Frost Over Many Areas

TODAY: Cold front is on its way into South Florida this morning with rains ending and clearing already having worked it's way toward the I-4 heading toward 7AM. Clearing line to work south mid morning . Freezing readings are seen in the latest surface observations across much of the panhandle as of 6AM.  
NW wind and much cooler today with highs possibly reaching 60F in the midst of cold air 'advection' (incoming colder air filtration) along a line from Cape Canaveral to South Tampa Bay with 50Fs north of that line. Any 60F degree reading near that line will be brief though with the predominant mode being mid-upper 50Fs with lower 60Fs for South Central Florida. 

TONIGHT -THURSDAY: A secondary cold front with the onset of the coldest temperatures of the season and even last year appears to be on the way breaking headway after the 10 pm - midnight time frame for the "Central Florida" region.  This air will be accompanied by breezy winds gusting to over 20 mph with wind chill advisories already to be hoisted for Thursday morning. Widespread mid- upper 30Fs this morning even at the coast and very cool to 'cold' all day with highs Dead Central and north in the lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs ('North') with mid upper 50Fs further south ;  60Fs restricted to the Deep South of Florida. The National Weather Service is talking about this and  will all be well advertised on local media outlets.

FRIDAY: Talk of wide spread freeze for zones mainly west of US1 and especially west of I-95 . Latest NAM shows a pocket of  coldest air west of Orlando but much of the state will be blanketed in the upper 20Fs to low to mid 30Fs (mainly below 35F in general) . Wind much lighter this day, so there might also be the chance of 'frost' but it's a bit too early to get into the refined details at this point. Friday will be also very cool to cold in the afternoon but the wind will be much lighter with highs eking out in the lower - mid 50Fs to upper 40Fs (North). But changes are in the waiting...overnight for the east coast, post the 2AM time frame.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY: Fairly consistence implications are that east coasters from the Cape South along and east of the A1A Strip (primarily) could wake up to morning 'lows' nearly 7-10 degrees warmer than the afternoon HIGH temperatures of the previous day...or in the lower 60Fs. Statewide though, by afternoon the temperatures could be nearly 20 degrees warmer than they will be Thursday and Friday .  We will go from coldest of the year and well below normal to easily 'normal' to above it  Saturday, with Sunday being even warmer. The 70Fs will return with a vengeance.

THE NEXT FONT SLATED FOR AROUND TUESDAY: But details are inconsistent with the passage of 'said boundary' and how far south it will actually work. Unusually cold air is not foreseen with this front regardless  but rain chances might need to be introduced somewhere between Monday and Tuesday with the quick onset of stiff SE winds (and hence 'moisture') foreseen later Saturday and Saturday night and all through Sunday.

Coldest Days of Season Late Wednesday Night through Early Friday

Morning Surf Fishing Cape Canaveral

TODAY Frontal boundary slicing its way across North Florida slowly progressing south with time today will make it into Dead Central only much later tonight around 2-4AM. Large blanket of light to moderate (occasionally heavier) rain across North Florida north of I-4 working south with time though the first main surge the entered that region earlier appears might be making off to the east for a respite in rainfall chances there soon.

Expect a slight change of rumbles, lightning and maybe some gustier wind to rest near or south of I-4 as shown in image below to begin to manifest after 4-5pm with entrance toward the Cape Canaveral line to Orlando between then through 7pm but barely working much further south than Brevard County on the east coast.  GFS continues to imply rainfall even after frontal passage over Central (up through sunrise   or an hour after ward) with rapid clearing into mid morning hours.

Warm today with highs near 80F outside of the cloud cover.  Winds SW 15-G 24 mph range.

TONIGHT: Otherwise, mild temperatures tonight south of the front. Rain chance increase to high end mainly north of a Sebastian to Port Charlotte line and decrease significantly south of that line in regard to areal coverage and 'intensity'.

WEDNESDAY: Highs might eke out 60F from Cape Canaveral and south for a brief time but remain in the mid-upper 50Fs north such as along the I4 and north. And remaining cloud cover at sunrise should be clearing out from west to east/north to south from early/mid morning into the afternoon over South Florida. A secondary cold front is on the way projected for Central Florida around 1-2AM Thursday morning accompanied but gusting WNW- NW winds   and even drier colder air.

THURSDAY MORNING: Much colder and windy with upper 30FS across much of Central Florida with only those regions east of US1 or I-95 to possibly 'escape' with lower 40FS but wind chills will be something to contend with after our mild weather of today.  

THURSDAY: Remaining very cool and possibly only in the lower to mid 50FS across many areas during the afternoon with winds gradually subsiding.

FRIDAY: This morning might be the coldest day state wide basis of the season since November with wide spread mid-upper 30FS but with much lighter wind. Not sure there will be enough moisture for a frost but never say never. Might be some freezing temperatures in the normally colder wind protected inland areas mainly interior North near Western Volusia into Lake County, Ocala and north (e.g.). 

The regions along the IMMEDIATE beaches east of the Banana River and south along the A1A  bacon strip from Canaveral and south appear might again escape the coldest air by a very narrow margin as guidance shows a very large temperature gradient between the beaches and just west of US1 to I95, such as the difference between mid 30FS (west) to lower-mid 40Fs beaches. Very touch and go though and wouldn't be surprised by a sudden drop even on the beaches into upper 30Fs close to sunrise for a short time. Otherwise, much 'milder' Friday though remaining cool as wind slowly veers to an easterly component with widespread upper 50Fs and low 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Southerly flow returns and the coming weekend looks to be near to above normal temperature wise as do many days thereafter.  

Not So Cold After-all ? Watching Wednesday for Storms

TODAY-THURSDAY: Gradual warming trend, at least through Thursday ahead of the next frontal passage slated to night time Thursday night into early Friday. No rain with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs both days but warmer on Thursday.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY: Yes, it will be very cool but the threat of near freezing temperatures or even mid-30Fs appears that it might be waning with successive model runs now. Temperature will be below 'normal' with highs on a few days only in the mid-upper 50Fs (perhaps) here and there, but Sunday especially which was seen to be quite cold is now not much different than other days.  There is more than on front foreseen but the details grow increasingly sketchy so will not attempt to get down to specifics but stick with generalities this morning.

That is only per the latest GFS though, and the previous run seemed to lean in this direction as well. Seems the colder air will now occur further west in the Plains as well and not penetrate as far into the Deep South of Florida south of I-10 toward the I-4.

WEDNESDAY: As of latest, possible strong storms with the strongest winds aloft in quite some time in the presence of the right exit region of a strong upper level jet. Best chances of 'strong' might be south of I-4 but much will depend on timing and that is still a good week away --  much could change.

BEYOND: It is now this period that  a truly cold blast is foreseen, yet short lived, with lows of freezing now again a threat, though it is getting late in the season and given how much has changed recently in the shorter term, not prepared to put much reliance on an outcast that extends over a week. On the other hand, the better news is that even if so, the GFS implies a prolonged warming trend.

To sum up, not quite as cold as 'feared' (though quite cool nonetheless) and chance of strong storms on Wednesday of next week for the time being.

 

Rain Today - Cold and Colder Yet Still Friday through Monday Morning

Cape Canaveral , Sunrise in February

TODAY: Busy schedule this week weather wise with rains already in progress along the West half of state and parts of South Florida as increasing cloud cover will spread across all of the state through mid afternoon (parts of South Florida doing a bit better). Chances are there will be no SpaceX Launch later today as a result. Otherwise, rains to begin and with very little let up once they do through dark tapering off into mid evening as low pressure exits off the east coast and strengthens. Residual cloud cover might be slow to pull out along the east coast.

TUESDAY: Cooler with northwest winds in the 15-25mph range possible with highs barely eking out the lower 60Fs. Some lingering lower clouds might be near the east coast for a time.  

WEDNESDAY: A cooler start to the day in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and continued a bit breezy with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs. Another Front is on the way.

THURSDAY: Wind much lighter with another cool start in the mid-upper 40Fs inland to near 50F coast but warmer in the afternoon into the 70Fs ahead of the next front that will go through dry.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Next front to go through right after sunset with much colder NW winds on its heels. Lows will need adjusting over time but looks like widespread mid-upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs with possibly some freezing to near freezing in areas like Lake County - Ocala area and north. Might have wind chills advisories out for Friday morning



FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON: As noted above, much colder to near one of the coldest we've had all season and continued much colder all day long and breezy with highs well down in the 50Fs (perhaps) if not upper 40Fs from a North Brevard County line to Brooksville on the west coast and north..   

SATURDAY: Another chilly start with a slight warm up, but here comes the "hum dinger' of a front per the GFS. If so, as another front to go through early evening with gusty northwest winds advecting the next surge of cold air down the state.

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest day so far of the season since November last year with much more widespread freezing to near freezing temperatures and many areas seeing mid-upper 30Fs as well, possibly to the coast. Details will become more refined with time but it's not looking very fun, and the cold continues all day into Monday. So far some upper 20Fs might be possible northern interiors but really too soon to say just how cold it will be at this point.

MONDAY: Possibly, if the trend continues, widespread frost/freeze alert. Winds are to let up significant as high pressure passes just to the north which might up for a good 'drainage flow' situation. So far guidance would dictate only frost in some areas, but given the situation suspect the GFS might be underscoring the potential that lies ahead for a cold drainage morning, but warming in the afternoon with light wind.

TUESDAY: All over and pretty quick warm up commences. 

Rain Likely- ISO STORM Possible Early Thursday

EARLY MORNING RADAR shows rain but most is not reaching the ground over Central
But toward the West Coast, some might reach down though further inland north of I4

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy (esp. North Half of state) today and as a result continued a bit 'cool' with light southeasterly wind. Rain still appears to be forthcoming with certainty along and north of I-4 going into tonight and through early THursday morning.

THURSDAY: Latest GFS and NAM continue to show respectable 0-3KM helicity along a sinking warm frontal like boundary. Thing to watch for will be colder air from the North as a result of heavier rainfall acting as an impetus for localize increase in low level shear as it forces the boundary south to a line near Cape Canaveral to Orlando, but overall the threat of severe weather appears to be close to NIL as directional shear will be exiting east of the state prior to the greatest increases in vertical velocities throughout the column coincident with directional shear. Regardless, vertical velocities up to 700mb are shown consistently to be the greatest near I-4 south to within the purple bounds shown in the image above between 5AM - 8AM time frame.

Should ingredients that remain come together just right some strong winds might be experienced on a very very localized basis with some heavier but brief rainfall.  There is still several more model runs to go with each of them though, and things can change. This post is based on the 06z runs which are not always the best indicators. The 00z NAM showed a better chance of a stronger storm or two within the same bounds as shown in the image above (to keep in mind). 

The front is expected to be on a line near a MLB to Sarasota line around 1pm Thursday, with continued cloudy skies and perhaps some light rain patches up until that time along and south of the boundary. Cold air advection ensues immediately Post FroPa (frontal passage) with temperatures remaining in the lower - mid 60Fs most of central with a fall into the mid-upper 50Fs going into the afternoon as the front presses south on the heels of a NNW at 15-20mph.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Again, onshore flow begins overnight Friday night if not a bit sooner from the NNE with winds around 20mph. This will prevent the east coast from Canaveral south from realizing the much colder temperatures that will be experienced inland and north of Orlando (thought even those  won't be terribly chilly or unusual for this season).    

BEYOND: Temperatures to remain a bit below normal over the weekend with the next front on tap in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This boundary is not expected to be nearly as active as the attendant surface low will be well north of the state, but colder air is expected behind it than the upcoming front.

In the longer range there still poses a chance of a re-enforcing boundary to arrive mid-February but just exactly how cold it will get  with that one , IF SO, is too far out in time to make a realistic determination.

Isolated Storm "Dead Central" Early Thursday Possible

GROUND HOG DAY MORNING

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Slow air-mass modification with light onshore flow and continued cool, a bit below 'normal' temperatures with increasing higher clouds mainly North Florida. Florida   recognizes this week as Severe Weather Awareness Week.

THURSDAY. Guidance continues to show about the same as the previous runs with a major exception in the GFS. No closed low other than a very weak one is now being shown to cross North Central to Central Florida with no intensification just off NE Florida. That is, just a weak 'circulation' crosses the state from sunrise through late morning.  Thus, the chance of Severe Weather goes down (from the previous blog post) as well as the chance of strong 'gale' like winds post frontal passage. Seems a warm front might make it as far north as I-4 but south of Daytona on the east side. The heaviest rainfall or largest totals might be north of the boundary in the colder air, with the better chance of thunder with rotation aloft only for a very brief window of opportunity between 5AM to around 10-11 AM (east coast) depending on timing. 

The  two models  noted, the NAM and the GFS, are a bit different in timing with the NAM faster which would mean any chance of a stronger storm (or any storm for that matter) would be over before 9AM in the morning, the GFS hangs on to about 10AM. Main reason for thunder would be bulk shear and 03KM helicity values in the presence of cold air aloft along the warm front, but surface based instability is close to non-existent, so chances are this will end up being a rain event of short duration. Regardless, rain on Thursday appears to be a near certainty.

Only a General Depiction and no all inclusive for the remote chance of thunder, maybe tiny hail if so? Warm front across Central will be the main player suspect though

BEYOND: Flow swings around to NE-E fairly quickly going into Friday and over the weekend but temperatures might remain a bit blow average though morning lows won't be anything other than something similar to this morning north in degrees and locations where it gets the most cold.  Breezy though for a day or two , so Friday will be a bit of a biter with breezy conditions very cool, and possibly a lower cloud deck as well with a few spritzes though suspect that chance might go by the way side. 

Meaning, east coast from the Cape south again will be the least vulnerable to the coldest air; lows mainly ranging through the 40Fs to lower 50Fs with some upper 30Fs possible Ocala and North (in general).

GREATER BEYOND: GFS hints in a few runs now at a big cold air intrusion out past Valentines Day,  watching that one.  The coldest one yet. 

'Possible' Severe Weather Threat Thursday - Gale Friday ?

February 1 Cape Canaveral Sunrise

TODAY: Slightly warmer today with a southeast wind breeze becoming more SSE late. Though a bit cool especially along the seashores north of Vero Breach due to the proximity of colder shelf Atlantic waters. Partly cloudy with a few mostly cloudy spurts especially near the coast off and on at almost anytime.

MONDAY: Cold front to cross down the panhandle during and Central during the late afternoon into the early evening. Southwest wind ahead of the boundary could be a bit breezy in the 20-28 mph with partly cloudy skies eventually becoming cloudy as the day wears on, but warmer with highs in the mid 70Fs  to lower 80Fs (warmer South Florida and cooler north). Chance of thunder mainly panhandle with a quick shot of rain or persistent lighter rain beginning mid-afternoon further south but no-sig accumulations likely if any at all.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Much cooler these mornings but afternoons not so bad, similar to past two days as winds rapidly swing around to the NE-ENE by Tuesday afternoon. At this time a low pressure area though weak might begin to form near the tip of SE Texas. That feature has been consistently shown now on Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs .  If so, the low is forecast to track along the northern gulf but further south than all the other lows this winter season so far  (i.e, over the water as opposed to on land). This then would become problematic for future forecasts over Florida.

THURSDAY: If latest GFS trends continue wouldn't be surprised to see a 'severe threat potential' hoisted out of the Storm Prediction Center. Past few GFS runs show plenty of directional and speed shear along a pseudo warm front situated near I-4 ahead of the low as it rapidly intensifies near Florida and exits off the east coast after dark. Down play for greater severe threat as of now is weak instability with the system,  but winds through the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere as shown this with rotation certainly possible unless things change.  

FRIDAY: Given the uncertainties on Thursday , Friday is even more   up in the air. Latest two GFS runs   show the  " yet to exist' low to strengthen significantly off the Florida East Coast as it moves off to the northeast. Wind wrapping around the back of the low with High pressure rapidly building in as well could produce  strong pressure gradient winds from NE Florida as far south as Coastal Brevard but again this is very sketchy. 

Latest guidance indicates gusts over 40 mph possible as cold air is drawn rapidly south on Friday behind the counterclockwise circulation  mid morning into the afternoon. The previous run was much kinder on the cold air advection portion but even stronger in the wind field department with gusts well above 40mph out of the north. 

Hence, for now, Friday and Thursday look like two  days that make the models worth looking at in the next couple of days.

Outside of those two days, the frontal boundary coming through Monday late will take us back down below seasonal norms temperature wise but not to a great degree. The panhandle looks like it will toying with the coldest air on this one down through NW Florida across the Ocala area  but the east coast from the Cape South looks like it will escape this one by a hair. Much depends now on what happens on Thursday / Friday on multiple factors , even how cold (or not) it will be next weekend.

Good News on The Weather Front

"While the Northeast U.S. Was in the Processes of Being Buried Under Inches of Snow ....."

...a barefoot walk on the beach was in order to celebrate the occasion.

TODAY: Cold front to cross the state through the day. The good news for east coasters?  This boundary is marking the leading edge of a pattern shift!  And?  As a result, after cold frontal passage there is high pressure building in behind it juxtaposition-ed as such that morning lows from the Cape South will be WARMER than the past several mornings.

Highs today will be across the 70Fs regime mainly south of I-4 or even from around Titusville to Tampa Bay and south with lower through upper 60Fs further north, partially restricted due to cloud cover ahead of and along the boundary. Satellite imagery is even a bit deceiving as the front is not even along what looks a bit "like"  a rope cloud which would demarcate  the frontal boundary. (note area over the Gulf west of Ocala)

SATURDAY: Cooler all areas as a result of the boundary with highs mainly across the 60Fs per guidance. Didn't look into what the cloud coverage would be but GFS shows a rapid moisture recovery at least at the lowest levels likely from onshore component flow. Wind though will pick up from the NE - ENE with time so   could feel a bit cool in the afternoon along the beaches especially north of Cape Canaveral as shelf waters have really cooled off the past few weeks with winds in the 12-20mph range. 

Thus, Saturday looks 'less than stellar' but far from what could be had this been a "Cold Air Intrusion of the Third Kind".

"Rare Frosty Morning in Cape Canaveral" - December 2010

SUNDAY: Another front will be approaching on Monday with winds becoming more Southeast to south and eventually Southwest on Monday. Highs mainly in the 70Fs with increasing clouds but not overly-cloudcast.

 

MONDAY: Possibly the warmest day in a while, with highs south of I-4 running through the 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs further south. Storms possible across the Panhandle with chance of rains further south and east into early Tuesday. Cloud cover an issue though.

TUESDAY: The pattern shift more evident now as a similar position of high pressure behind the boundary is spelling out rapid air mass recover with quick onshore return flow moderating temperatures with maybe one cooler day and then back to HARD CORE 70Fs. But cooler at the east coast beaches north of West Palm. Life's tough. 

Cold front later Tuesday could bring rains and thunder (pan-handle) .

BEYOND: Hesitations begin in this realm of time. GFS is like shifting sands on a Teutonic plate in regard to future-casts.  At one point it was showing possibly the coldest statewide days yet around February 15th but now it has shifted that out to the extra-terrestrial time zone (ETZ) of 385 hours out, which is even way beyond the LTZ (LaLa-Land Time Zone ) for model accuracy. 

The only more assured chance of rain other than maybe a sprinkle today northern parts appears to come around later Tuesday/Wednesday with the next boundary where the GFS is showing a repeat performance of the wind and temperature fields to follow that boundary similar to today's performance. 

For now will go with it just because it looks nice and tired of this unacceptably cold  "below 73F in the afternoon" regime at some locations; though, it's not often a good thing to base a forecast on one's feelings, which odd as it might sound, might actually occur at times in some unofficial circles.

Double Barrel Fronts To Lower Temps to Below Normal Through Wednesday

SUNDAES SUNSET WAS A SWEET TREAT 

TODAY: Family of cold fronts across the eastern states! One down, two to go.

Second of a series of increasingly cold  air infiltration into Florida preceded by moisture convergence along the frontal boundary and rain storms/clouds. 

Front now across the Northern Parts to lie close to Dead Central around 10AM with rapid clearing accompanied by breezy conditions on par with the other day with gusts from 25 mph to near 35 mph for a time at least (perhaps only a few hours or less). 

Otherwise, highs today might be able to reach the mid 60Fs under sunny skies eventually but it might feel a bit cooler than yesterday with the wind in open areas. Temperature falls gradually as the sun sets throughout the night. Have you noticed that it's getting darker lately?  They are about 30 minutes longer now than on December 21st. 

TUESDAY: Continued breezes but not like today under mostly sunny skies and a bit cooler with highs low 60Fs to upper 50Fs (north). Another front is going through dry on Tuesday which will bring the wind more around to the northwest to NNW as they begin to relax off more noticeably. Looks like Tuesday morning will see lower to mid 40Fs across a broad expanse with a wind bite to the air most of the day  .

WEDNESDAY: Another drop in temperatures by morning with some upper 30Fs possible inland and north but solidly in the lower 40Fs this day over a larger area of real-estate but with lighter wind. Highs also a bit lower with upper 50Fs possible from SR46 and north,   nearer to 60Fs Central give or take a degree or two, warmer south.

THURSDAY: Overnight the wind will start to turn more toward the northeast but remain light. Very cool morning in store many areas but the immediate east coast beaches especially south of The Cape might start to even warm a bit after midnight if there is enough advection to bring warmer ocean air (that is relevant to the 40Fs) to the beach. Afternoon though solidly in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs and pleasant  as wind becomes SE.

BEYOND: Friday another front looks like it will barely eke through and mostly only mess with the winds a bit directionally speaking and increase moisture but there is no real big change otherwise with highs in the 70Fs and cooler inland lows in the mornings.

Back to seasonal norms. Any big bad storm system alluded to in the previous post from the LONG RANGE GFS as surmised might be the case is no longer in the picture, at least for today. It is now showing nothing by seasonal norms well into the first week of February and even later than that, but again, wouldn't bet on it.

Cold Front Roller Coaster Sweeps In - Two More To Go

COLD FRONT IS SLICING DOWN FLORIDA THIS MORNING TO EXIT SOUTH AROUND NOON TIME

TODAY: As notable, it's a bit breezy outside across most parts of Florida both ahead of and behind the boundary. Gusts to 35 mph have been reported but are mostly in the 20-30 mph range,  A very brief 'tornado' was reported near Englewood at 3:50 AM but cannot say as yet if that is officially confirmed.

Otherwise, the story will be when will the sun re-appear? Theoretically it could begin to emerge by around 1-2pm  Central (from North to South) as the air is quite dry back up in Southeast Alabama, there the satellite imagery continues to show some clouds back up that way. Could  go with at least partial clearing and possibly much more, but tempted to say, 'cloudy for the most part the rest of the day' to varying degrees with a few breaks late possible but not even definite on that. Temperatures this afternoon thus will largely be contingent on the cloud cover in the midst of cold air advection. Looking for highs in the lower 60Fs but that is suspect to favor upper 50Fs to mid-50Fs . We have a lot of mixing going on at the low levels so that alone might keep the temperatures up a bit until after dark when the driest of air arrives.

SUNDAY: Much cooler with lows ranging mainly through the 40Fs range and highs varying from upper 50Fs (North) to mid 60Fs Central. Wind much more subdued though.

MONDAY: Another system per water vapor satellite animations is spilling east and  south out of the Northern Rockies. A surface low will be forming on the Lee Side of the Mountains to trounce first SE then more ESE to eventually east passing well north of Florida. It will be trailing a cold front en-vogue with it though, which appears will be near North to Central Florida by sunrise or shortly there-after on Monday. More cloud cover and possibly some brief sprinkles to accompany this boundary (but no storms anticipated) with more gusty winds but not as gusty as today.

TUESDAY: Front will have cleared with a cold morning in store. Lows in the mid-upper 30Fs west and north of Orlando and closer to low-mid 40Fs elsewhere; overall could be 40Fs nearly statewide with a cool afternoon in the upper 50Fs to low 60Fs south. This appears will the coldest of all days in sync a bit with a few of November of last year.  Wind much lighter but not so light we might not have wind chill advisories.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Cool mornings moderating with slowly warming days up to the 70Fs by Thursday as the next front approaches for Friday. So far, this boundary is expected to wash out across Central Florida and the cool spell, if so, is over for quite some time other than cool inland morning lows. If this boundary does wash out rain chances might be back in the picture Friday into the following weekend.

Becoming Cloudier But Warm, Showers Possible Late (Central) / Storms North

"Fall Streak" On Thursday Morning over Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Wind veering to SSE-South during the day and a bit breezier than the past few days. Cold front and associated rains are readily visible on radar over the Panhandle in the pre-dawn hours with the lightning mainly remaining over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Suspect this will remain to be the case until mid-morning where storms might ease   to inland near Tallahassee east toward JAX and south to Gainesville with time.

Further south into Central/South, remaining mostly dry with increasing clouds with highs through the 70Fs range contingent upon cloud cover. Chance of showers as far south as a Melbourne to South Tampa Bay line heading toward early evening near and after dark with the better chance before dark closer to the west coast north of the Brandon area. 

NOTE: This post is running on the conservative side as what could otherwise be   worded toward the  'favoring storms' convention. For now, not seeing it. Guidance over the past days since the previous post has been fairly consistent to imply 'no storms' today ; but perhaps on Saturday for Central and South except maybe along or North of the I-4.

Conservative Approach On Storm Coverage, The Orange is to show the Low End Chance of Thunder with Green Implying better the chance of showers will low rainfall accumulation (quick in passing)

SATURDAY: Cold front advancing south and east from I-4 by dawn to be across "Dead Central" between 9AM - noon time. Chance of showers with possible thunder to accompany the boundary in the presence of strong wind speed shear but very weak instability and directional shear. As a result, though thunder might accompany the activity, wind could still be a bit of an issue during and after boundary passage. Wouldn't be surprised to see Small Lake Advisories (etc..) and Small Craft Advisories hoisted for winds gusting to 30-35+mph as a result. Highs holding steady to dropping slowly during day light hours in the mid-upper 60Fs (warmer south) and falling slowly toward dark. Wind also quickly subsides after dark as the front by then will have cleared the state.

SUNDAY:Much cooler all day with lows ranging from low-upper 40Fs depending on how far north and inland one is located with a high in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs but very pleasant otherwise. Only 50Fs near and north of I4.

BEYOND: Another low pressure area much further north to cross the east central U.S. One if not two more fronts will rotate around that low as it moves east and north in coming days, bringing in another shot of colder air   toward Tuesday or Wednesday and perhaps another one after that similar to the one on Sunday. In between those reinforcing cool air intrusions we might see a warmer day in the lower 70Fs but mostly we'll be seeing westerly component winds and dryer air with no rain for quite a while.

"Fall Streak" and "Cloud Punch" (bottom right)

GREAT DREAM BEYOND: First few days of February might see something like a repeat performance in regard to the rain chances set up which will mean to watch for the severe weather potential once again, but as alluded to in the previous post, too far in time for anything but itching eyes wanting to see something that might never manifest.  

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