Big Lightning Threat - Large Rainfall Totals Inland Possible

Early Morning Cloud Line along the Banana River - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - TOMORROW: These two days look similar as of morning model guidance so will clump them together. Chance of heavy downpours today away from the coasts with a few storms exhibiting frequent lightning possible. KSC sounding came in with very light wind up through the lower column, as such, wouldn't be surprised to hear of a funnel cloud sighting or two today - especially early on if something gets going near an area lake wind or sea breeze boundary. Best chances of heavier storms appears will be interior Central and South Central. Tomorrow - could be similar in nature, but exactly where the 'better chances' will be ..will have to wait until that time comes.

BEYOND: Continued mostly interior storms, with coastal or near shore water showers or even some thunder possible almost any morning (there was a lightning this morning off the Cape observed with a tall lone shower). The better chances of storms will be later in the day though over the interior well away from the immediate beach-side.

Upper level steering should be becoming more east to west going into Saturday and/or Sunday especially ..which would mark a pattern change to favor more of the west half of the state.

Tropical Storm Danny has been 'christened' for the record books. Last night's GFS forecast model brought the storm right into Florida..the following run left it well out at sea way before even getting close. Too soon to say is the verdict for now.

Broader Coverage / Iso-Very-Strong Possible Interior Central/South Central

Start of the Weekend - Top of the Morning

TODAY: Slight difference from yesterday before full pattern swing sets up for a solid week (which will result in sig. lowering of rain chances mainly east of I-95); but for today, colder air aloft than past days such as all of last week are in place. 

Steering wind is from the WSW-ENE from 7,000 feet and above averaging about 11 kts. Though some storms could initiate along the east coast sea breeze almost anywhere, they will first move west along that boundary due to less vertical development but might 'cling' east for a time. Latest Mesoscale analysis page shows some stronger  "Craven-Brooks severe" parameters in place over East Central Florida at this time which should advect well inland if they even last and be in place for sea breeze convergence boundaries later today mainly Central Osceola County into Polk, Southern Lake , West half of Orange and south into South Central Florida as well, or maybe just a bit east of the spine of the state as well.

 Some storm debris or if possible even a renegade thunder storm might make it back east toward the coast mainly near the Far North Brevard to Volusia County regions if conditions set up just right, but suspect the stronger storms will be further south and inland due to cloud cover still over a part of Central and North Central Florida at 11AM.

Note: If east coast sea breeze is slower to move inland by some fluke, true thunder with Cloud to Ground lightning could conceivably' reach the east coast north of Melbourne, but would be very unlikely.. Heavy downpours and frequent lighting seems to be the best bet today, if not some 'peas or B.B. hail". 

 Lingering rainfall over parts of Central or East Central might continue after the gang bang is finished and the strangling storm debris keepson keepin' on toward dark.

BEYOND: Deep south  - south east flow to focus all the thunder activities inland and west coast most if not all of next week and toward the weekend. This does not necessarily preclude areas along the immediate coast from all rainfall chances though. 

Guidance does show varying degrees of deep layer moisture from 1.7 - 2.2" PWAT (precipitable water) during this time frame, sometimes even at the coast. What that could mean is that regions at the beaches mainly south of I-4 (mainly Brevard and South) could experience pre-sunrise to late morning toward noon time showers before the sea breeze sets up in full swing on any of these days.

In the Far Beyond the GFS hints at perhaps a weak inverted trough - tropical wave-like feature might swing through in the next two weeks..if not two of them which could bump up rain chances all areas. It's starting to look much more like early fallish-tropical season now more than summer right now...that is unless the later runs of the GFS make yet another pattern shift before the end of August...perhaps toward the  26th might be possible

Increasing Storm/Rain Chances Today - Saturday

TODAY: Pattern shift which began yesterday will be in 'full force' in varying degrees and ways in sensible weather mainly today - Saturday. Though it is difficult at time to tell how cloud cover earlier in the day might affect the outcome for the afternoons in future days - today through perhaps Friday seem to be the best storm chance days, particularly Thursday (?) (GFS guidance).

Westerly steering flow at all levels varies for 8 -13 kts this morning and shouldn't change much during the day. The west coast sea breeze is already evident on visible satellite imagery and is to trounce eastward during the heating of the day to set off rain showers and some thunder 'here-n-there', but the best chance of 'pronounced thunder' will be near to east of I-95 up and down the east coast mainly north of West Palm or Ft. Pierce after 4:30pm toward early evening.

THURSDAY: Similar scenario at play looks to be the rule but perhaps with better state wide coverage. Colder air aloft comes into play on Thursday and suspect if that is to be the case (per the GFS model, 'Global Forecast System') then either stronger storms will be the rule or earlier onset or a combination of both. This might be the best day for stronger storms before the overall atmosphere gets to mixed in. 

FRIDAY: Also cold air aloft this day, might be an earlier on set but again, hard to say for certain.

On all days with a 'later onset' (after 3pm east side), the east coast sea breeze should be able to form since the winds at the lower levels though westerly (toward the east) are not forecast to be strong enough to offset the sea breeze though it will make little inland progress. With colder air aloft at play though, stronger activity if it does not ignite to rapidly could also occur most anywhere.

SATURDAY: More of the same.

SUNDAY: Looks like a pattern shift toward south to south south east flow which might leave the immediate east coast 'high and dry' outside of mid-late morning activities.

Lower Rain Chance Today to Zero Some Areas - Possibly Strong South Florida Mainly

Storm Moves Off Shore of Cocoa Beach Area Early Saturday Afternoon

TODAY: Big change today with much drier conditions many areas. A backdoor 'front' is progressing southward with drier air behind it. This 'boundary' should hold identity as far south as perhaps the Vero Beach area and arc back north a bit late today along the West Coast sea breeze front to along/near Route 27 in general. Otherwise, upper level winds shift from North (north half of state) to a bit more NW south portions as Jet Stream winds oddly round out from the NE at over 40knts.

Combination of drier air and strong upper level winds (though temps aloft are warm) could still result in a strong storm or two along 27 from Ocala and south but more likely south of the boundary over South Central and/or South Florida late today .  North of even I-4 is sketchy in the strong storm category.

The potential for this to occur was noted about 3 blog posts ago, that though a front might not make it completely through it appeared a mid level trough would. Only difference now is that the surface boundary did make it further south than foreseen.

MONDAY: Continued more of the same with rain chances more likely interior South Florida

TUESDAY: The Sonoran Heat Ridge which has been dictating much of the weather this summer  will again begin to retreat west , eroding on its eastern flanks across Florida and set up for an upper level trough digging down the east coast mainly east of the Mississippi if not further east setting up for SW Flow aloft once again. This becomes especially true by Wednesday and Thursday and firmly in place Friday through the upcoming weekend.

BULBOUS LOWERING CLOUD APPEARED TO HAVE ROTATION ON GROUND EVEN SO SLIGHTLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON - SEQUENCE PHOTOS BELOW

BACK EDGE OF LARGER CLOUD AREA

AREA MOVING OUT TO SEA

Early Storms Already In Progress Mid-Morning

TODAY: Quick Post. As noted yesterday, today would take on 'the flavor' of yesterday and sure enough early day activity is in full swing with some stronger storms possible first along the west coast due to winds gusts (with some frequent lightning) working south into early-mid afternoon. This 'area' will also release the chance of some stronger storms across South Central/South possibly near the Big Lake zone along the Lake Shadow as day time heating will have had much more time to accumulate by the time the 'instigating impulse' reaches that area.

Not everyone will see rain today, worth nothing -- the East Coast especially north of Vero Beach is 'suspect' even early on today. Chances are there will be a 'shift in character' to the current activity by noon to 1pm but by then the chance of East Coast rains north of Vero will have already passed. Regardless, could still see some stronger wind gusts with rains. Will also watch for re-development for the zone of North Brevard and north toward Volusia/I-4 later this afternoon if substantial clearing can occur after the earlier festivities.

SUNDAY: Watching for stronger storms North Central / Central (interiors). The NAM is fairly consistent with strong VVs (vertical Velocities) in the presence of generous by August standards EHI (Cape/Helicity Indexes); however, it has been bouncing around with the GFS bickering for anything from strong storms to very little at all. Therefore, it is still a bit uncertain at this point in regard to the strong storm chances unless the NAM keeps squawking out some of its bizarre fore- sights

 

LATER SUNDAY  or INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY: Could see a break in the action until the next front approaches. After that point it starts to take on semblances of last weeks rain-daze events minus all the moisture. Either way, a return to more storms by mid-late week next week as well.

Chance of Marginal Severe Panhandle & Perhaps Far East North/Central

Heavy Thunderstorm Moves Off Shore at Cocoa Beach Pier , Thursday 

TODAY: As noted yesterday, today will be a variation of yesterday and so far that seems to be the case - the main likeness to yesterday will be not in who  receives what kind of rain as much as those that had a very low chance of rain yesterday - so too today. 

Otherwise, some new 'driving factors' are at play in the wind fields. Though moisture is bit tad sparser over Central the ribbon of it remains nearly the same running about 30 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Port St. John on the east coast. It appeared even before Sunrise that there was a boundary there and it shows up even better now at sunrise. Steering today could become more NW if any STRONG / SEVERE STORM latches on to the East Coast Sea breeze particularly from near Ormond Beach south toward Southern Volusia. Thus, one thing that 'might' need to be considered is a 'right mover down the intracoastal later today IF the east coast sea-breeze gains momentum up-coast from a strongly southerly component much like it did yesterday over parts of Eastern Brevard County. 

Thus, the risk for strong storms along the east coast south of I-4 is conditional on the east coast sea breeze and any storm forming or even 'rolling' into this area from  a northerly direction OR acquiring a propagating principle down stream along the sea breeze front. 

Latest Mesoscale Analysis page is hitting on  a supercell component or rotating type thunderstorm parameter being present along a line from near Titusville to North Tampa Bay and north...however, with the additional sea breeze front which appears could form but stay perhaps east of I-95 today per KSC Sounding from this morning...could translate that 'supercell' principle further south into where moisture still resides to perhaps near South Melbourne Beach along the east coast if not Sebastian Inlet.

There is a BIG IF though. The forecast for this particular parameter is for it to diminish going into the afternoon, which would leave the chance of nothing more that a rouge thunderstorm in the equation along the Florida east Coast south of Ormond Beach.

BEYOND: Will watch for a chance of stronger storms again perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday but moisture availability and the level of the atmosphere where any will be useful is becoming sketchy. 

So far, the better chance of showers/thunder is being shown by the GFS to be along the east coast and Central Peninsula though we might start to see considerable overnight to early A.M activity along the Nature Coast (Big Bend area) by tomorrow or Sunday morning in association with an approaching frontal boundary.

Strange UFO-ic Sighting over Canaveral Yesterday

Chances of Rain/Thunder East Central Florida and I-10 Alley

"Gentle Morning Cruise"

TODAY: Pattern shift, most pronounced yesterday from a long-pronounced stretch in recent days especially along the West Coast where rainfall totals at one spot totaled up to just under 20" over a period of days with other totals 8" and greater, now in place.

Newly emerging set up now at play for today and tomorrow which should be fairly similar in nature both days favoring thunder more toward the East Coast.

Morning sounding at MIA came in with a pronounced inversion at 5000 ft and dry air above with a convective temperature of 102F. Hard to see how much could occur over South Florida today outside of a huge change in air masses. 

Short range models are showing storms down that way though will disregard for the most part.  The better overall locations of Deeper Moisture vertically through the column is about 50 miles either side of a line running from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay.

With westerly steering at 10,000 feet at around 15kts and slower higher up, would anticipate storm motions to generally be from west to east at around 12 mph outside of anomalous propagation along outflow / set breeze convergence set ups which  which might manifest late this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze  but which should remain close to east of I-95 if not further east in some locations. The Big Lake 'shadow' might also be a factor for low level moisture convergence and storm development near Vero Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Very warm today as well outside of greater overall cloud coverage especially West Central and SW Florida

Best chances of thunder seems to be as shown in graphic below.  Strange little patches of late morning/early afternoon weak cumulus clouds already at play near the Cape area which is unquestionably a sign that things are different from yesterday's clear sky during this same time frame of noon.

General Estimate of Coverage Areas, though Might be More Thunder than Shown Here Central and North
(e.g. Vero Beach area to watch also)

BEYOND: Friday looks similar, and then into the weekend a frontal boundary will  work to I-10 corridor from the North. Latest NAM model however shows the mid-level trough making it's way right through which switches the wind directions around (steering currents from the N-NW) but leaves ample moisture with low level westerlies. All in all, after tomorrow looks like another pattern shift but with isolated to scattered thunder remaining in the equation, with South Florida getting in on the action. Exactly how that will manifest though at this point is a bit hard to saw from looking at the 12z (8AM) model runs so not going to bite yet on specifics.

Chance of Stronger Storms Along / Near I-95 Later Today

"Thursday Mornings"

TODAY:Pond of high PWAT (precipitable water) continues over most of the state today in varying degrees in a most un-July-like fashion. Temperatures aloft as of this A.M. have cooled at 500mb about 2 or 3 degrees. There was some active storms yesterday western portions of North Central toward Lake County vicinity and perhaps more of the same today but further toward the east as low pressure well east   of Jacksonville slowly moves off to the north and east during the day.

There is a potential issue though especially toward the east coast from Brevard and south. High clouds from shower/storm activity well offshore are streaming toward the coast. Suspect these might erode as the approach the coast though especially by mid afternoon so for now will disregard. They can be seen in the image below.

Today is not really in many ways a typical summer like day though for most purposes with this current strange pressure pattern at play and it is not much expected to change significantly for several days.  Early this morning there was more of a December like sky yet coupled with warm temperatures which was a strange combination. That being..a secondary area of mi-low level low pressure circulation forms along I-10 from Florida toward Southern Alabama in the next few days only serving to re-reinforce what is already present but by a different means. 

Temperatures aloft might cool more into tomorrow and/or Saturday so will be watching for stronger storms again on those days before warming is forecast aloft once again bringing storm strength more in line with standard lightning , thunder, and rain with more showers than thunderstorms.

Overall though, rain chances persist into and through the weekend which brings up the next question. What to make of the forecast developing low pressure. Other guidance shows a low also west of Tampa to retreat back toward the WSW over two days placing much of the state in SW moist flow and lots of cloud cover. Then the question becomes..will the moisture manifest only as cloud cover instead of rain? Too soon to say.

Showery Afternoon in Store - Some Thunder Mainly Well Inland

Crackin' The Sunday Morning Sunrise in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Looks mostly like a 'showery' regime today with South Florida beginning to get worked over with cloud cover and showers. Low pressure surface circulation might be located SW of Orlando in NE Polk County up through nearly 5000 ft but wind all across Central is quite weak up through 20000 ft. Thunder might occur later today in from I-95 anywhere along I4 south toward Vero Beach where activity is more likely to affect the coast northward to perhaps Southern Brevard County. All in all best chance of thunder might be Orange, Northern Osceola Seminole, much of Polk and Lake Counties later today as that will be the last location to receive the rains today and thus have greater chances of becoming more unstable. Lightning does not look like it will be frequent though and probably short lived in any storm that can form.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: If guidance is correct per NAM/GFS trends then showers will be more likely to return to the east coast and beaches after perhaps some very warm and steamy starts to the day, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Low pressure region, so far that is, is to lift north and a bit west tonight and put must of Florida other than I-4 and north in a strong and stiff SW Flow aloft. Continued very moist as well. Showers and some thunder could pile up almost anywhere along the east coast later in the day on any one of these days but also occur many other locations earlier in the day or even in any location after around 11AM.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Better chance of lightning coverage and some stronger storms if GFS holds true to form, especially on Friday/Saturday as it is forecast temperatures at 500mb to cool by several degrees, courtesy of a migrant and weak TUTT low from the western Caribbean working toward Florida . Assuming this holds true that is. TUTTs are notorious for being rather unpredictable only a few days out in advance. Otherwise, see no reason to take showers and storm chances out of the outlook for many days ahead, perhaps up through even next weekend.

Large Rainfall Totals West Central Today

 

TODAY: Big difference for today in some locations except the West Central coast where rainfall totals in the Hillsborough County area are topping 5" and 6" so far in only the past 24 hours approaching 8" at least by now.  Currently there is heavy rainfall activity occurring over west Central and that is drifting south. Today's blog is going to be an extrapolation of what occurred yesterday combined with latest guidance.  

Lower to upper level trough now is across to near and just north of I-4 across the state. Secondary impulses might pass into parts of the Western half of the panhandle for strong to near severe activity much later today - but the two regimes this post will refer to is

 1. The current activity and

 2. what effect that activity will have in other areas later today combined with the current synoptic scale set us as mentioned above.

Therefore this is a guess based on yesterday's chain of events: 

Yesterday a very large outflow boundary emerged out of the west to southwest coast's activity and racedly spread out in all directions for over 200 miles after to during the peak heating hours. 

If that is to occur again today..and there is the big IF in this post... outflow could race outwardly in all easterly directions toward the east coast sea breeze which should develop today. Where that outflow meets the sea breeze AND under to just south of 'the boundary' of the upper to lower level troughs there could end up being some stronger activities East Central just in from the coast that could drift over the coastal communities. Elsewhere along the trough axis activity could occur almost anywhere along to just north of I-4 and northwestward to the Cedar Key area.

Over South Florida there was continued rains and thunder working south and east with time.

Overall, suspect a lot might change between the hours of 10:30AM - 12:30AM. 
KSC sounding showed a convective temperature of only 83F. That would not bode well for strong storms under the current circumstances as convective levels would be reached before there is hardly much heat energy built up resulting in nothing but showers in other areas. Therefore, thinking at least one or two more mechanisms will be needed to trigger storms. Latest RAP/MSA (Mesoscale Analysis) shows two potential 'vorticity maxes' over North Central at time. But how long those will persist is unknown. 

All in all, it looks that some areas might well so no rain today at all whereas there might be some spots over Central Florida that could get over 2 inches. We'll see. (Otherwise, could be strong storm up toward the Panhandle region even perhaps anywhere along I-10).  

This will especially be true if we do not see an outflow boundary emerge from the current activity shown in the image above.Tt would end up being relatively quiet compared to what was described as a potential outcome otherwise.

BEYOND: Decreasing overall rainfall coverage into Sunday through Wednesday. Boundary should settle in across Central and meander north and south for a few days as far south as Northern Lake Okeechobee and as far north as I-4. Along and south of that boundary is the area where rain chances will exist most likely but where it will be on any one of those days at this point is hard to impossible to say.

"Early Onset" Today- Saturday - More than One Round of Thunder Possible

Early Evening - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not many surprises today. Low pressure located just off the coast of North Carolina has a poorly defined surface 'front' / boundary trailing westward from it which will be drifting south into Florida late weekend. Meanwhile, SW surface flow should sustain well enough to prevent east coast sea breeze formation while winds aloft curve more toward the west through northwest. Atmosphere looks primed and ready for action  first along the west side but could pop up just about anywhere by 11AM or so once convective temperatures are reached  - with better heating by noon might see the onset of the bulk of activity start to pop between 12:30pm to 1:30pm and continue to do so and work south and east into parts of South Central and South Florida as well. 

Energy-Helicity (EHI) , not something you hear much about over Florida in the summer,  is looking to be rather well above the norm  (which is usually very low and not mentioned much in posts) in value today across all of North Central Florida. This might help maintain storms or give an extra boost to their rainfall and/or lightning potential. 

Temperatures aloft are rather warm toward the norm for late July so strong wind gusts though not anticipated could occur especially early to mid afternoon with the onset of any one location's first storm activity before the local atmosphere gets 'worked over'.  

Some areas might see more than one storm today (especially parts from I-10 south toward a line from Vero Beach to Tampa Bay.

SUNDAY: Perhaps a variation of the same theme with again, an early onset. Some of the same areas that receive any heavy rain today could again receive it tomorrow; as such, some localized 'flood statements' for those areas prone to that affect might be issued.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Things slow down a bit to a lot depending on which model one prefers. The NAM is now taking up with the old GFS solution of several days ago driving the front through Central Florida - the GFS and Euro Model (ECMWF) do not imply that will be the case though.

Either way, after Saturday the activities begin to wane and modify in character. This would be expected anyway this time of year as patterns shift slowly but surely with time adding some sublime variations to the menu.  

"Like" Wednesday - Increasing Rain Chances Late Friday through Saturday

TODAY: Minor variation of yesterday. Moisture on KSC morning sounding easily over 2"  and guidance shows this to be the case in a broad swath across all of Central with 'sig drying' north of Southern Volusia to Brooksville line toward I-10. 

A few showers are already in progress along the west coast and expect like yesterday an 'early onset' for folks west coast and far interior working eastward 'en-masse' along with accompanying OFBs (outflow boundaries) on top of what will be the already present west coast sea breeze. 

Steering might be a tad more out of the WNW today than previous days but rather slow. At 700mb the KSC sounding showed about 1.5 degrees of cooling (only by eye-balling it without actual numbers). We might see some bona-fide stronger storms today later portions of mid-afternoon toward the east coast of Central and a bit later further south near Lake Okeechobee vicinity and just in from the coast parts of SE Florida - mainly wind gusts perhaps in upper 40s range? And as usual, some potent lightning bolts.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Frontal boundary sagging south from low pressure to form off the Eastern Carolinas to make it's presence/approach known beginning late Friday with up-tick of over all coverage. Expect perhaps more cloud cover after initial onset of activities to linger around through Saturday though might see some clearing earlier Saturday but with an earlier onset. Guidance is coming in with some good coverage state wide but how much of that will be cloud cover especially once the boundary gets set in place across Central is hard to say.

Rain chances so far now remain a bit elevated into Monday after which time it would so far seem to be a little over presumptuous to speak of future days other than that rain chances remain as would be expected this time of year. A previous GFS run though in the future showed 'sig drying' but will disregard.

More Storm Activities - Pockets of Stronger Wind Gusts "East Central"

Sunshine Starts  Wednesday

TODAY: Slight variation of the same thing and same appears to be the case tomorrow as well. What that 'variation' as usual entails is the usual day-by-day predicament in the shorter term.

KSC sounding came in with a remarkable PWAT of 2.06" (compare to winter when it can be less that 1/4" at times). Most moisture is evenly distributed throughout the column and steering is from the west about about 8-11 mph or so toward the east. East coast sea breeze should again be able to form and make only inland progress as far as perhaps US-1 to I-95 with a few clouds and maybe showers going up on to the east of it most anywhere along the east coast earlier this afternoon.

Red Zone is Only "for Example" 

West coast regime of showers and some thunder going early and pressing east and increasing in coverage as time passes after late morning into early afternoon...mostly West Central and to the north toward Cedar Key or so.  

Highest coverage today should generally be south of I 10 and north of a line running from Vero Beach to South Tampa Bay or Sarasota (that is to say, all of North Central and a bit of South Central).

Some storms could have a peak wind gust or two in the 50 mph range as was the case yesterday but those will be few and very far between.

THURSDAY: Again, looks like a similar day. The SPC is already calling for marginal severe coverage both this day and Friday in almost the exact same region as just described above both days so time will tell. Latest guidance available on 'this end' does not imply any such thing, but then again...today is looking way 'healthier' than it was suspected it would be, at least so far, mainly in the coverage aspect

BEYOND: Frontal boundary might not make it as far south as surmised yesterday. How far south will have a short term affect on what effect that ambient weather will be locally. Now it is saying no further then Central with low pressure forming off east of East Central but first developing along the wave/front over the peninsula itself. Whether any of these scenarios will manifest is too soon to say. It might be picking up on something else ...another signal that is trigger this configuration but just exactly what, cannot say for now as we eye   the future. 

Guidance shows high coverage of rain and early initiation both Friday and Saturday..however, this might end up being cloud cover instead but skeptical about that at this point. That was what was in the MIA Forecast Discussion at least but do not see why that would be the case at this point.

Mid-July Patterns Continues - Slow to Change

Thunderstorm with Dangerous 'Random Lightning Bolts" Develops
over the Banana River West of Cape Canaveral on Monday

TODAY: Not a significant change from yesterday with temperatures aloft forecast to be about the same as the past few days. There is the chance that winds in the lower portions of the mid-levels will be a bit stronger from the west today that might hold the sea breeze out to sea north of Vero Beach but if it can form it would remain east of I-95 from Brevard and south (further inland south of Vero or Ft Pierce where mid level westerlies are weaker).

As Yesterday's Rain Developed
This area had the best rains yesterday over Central and South Florida

Best chance of thunder once again along and north of I-4 but might well see it again south of I-4 mainly near and east of I-95 though a few bolts could occur inland as well, especially if activity ends up occurring later than latest guidance implies, which at time calls for an earlier start.

As of this hour though (530AM) very little is going on, which is opposed to short-range model guidance. In the end, it might end up being that today will be much like yesterday in the overall scheme of things, but exactly where an actual storm or shower will cause impact as usual cannot be pre-determined.

WEDNESDAY: This day so far looks to be about the driest day statewide except North Florida but then again, today was looking to be quite dry only yesterday. We'll have to see how it goes. Latest RAP model really does imply for today mainly showery activities but HRRR begs to differ.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like a transition day Thursday but a slow one at that as a frontal boundary develops from low pressure moving east off the Carolinas and slowly sagging its way to Florida and eventually Central Florida by Saturday. Better rain chances thus on Friday and Saturday with storms moving east to west and probably an early start to them too. Saturday might not be the best day to plan for all day beach activities or migrating from inland to frolic in the surf.

SUNDAY: GFS states the frontal boundary will make it's way to South Central Florida before stalling out. From there, the last two model runs have shown differing results developing with said boundary. 

The previous one showed the front working back north with a return to our continued pattern with variations, while the following run forms low pressure along the boundary toward Southeast Florida which lifts north and eventually loops back northwest to North Florida. Overall, the end results would be the same, but if low pressure does form some areas would remain dry away from it's proximity.

Better Thunder Chance Along/North of I-4

Crepuscular Rays Crown a Thundershower over West Merritt Island Sunday Afternoon

TODAY: Conditions look similar to yesterday for the most part outside of some minor variances on the KSC sounding - temperatures aloft are within 1C of yesterday at 700mb & 500mb respectively but there is just a bit more moisture and convective temperature was around 87F (which was lower than yesterday at the same time of day). 

If correct and over a large area, this would mean earlier initiation or  about the same in regard to cumulus cloud generation. Guidance implies a scenario of activity first developing along what appears might be the mid-level remnant trough which is back to the north closer to a Cedar Key to St. Augustine line. Satellite imagery seems to imply another one near Tampa Bay running west out into the Gulf and might be extending across at least part of the land mass as well to the east. South Central and especially South looks to be in an entirely different regime today basically north of a line running from Ft Pierce or Vero and west across the state.  

Best consensus implies first activities to the North then working general east and south with time , very slowly along progressive outflows from showers and maybe some thunder. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh is showing some either heavy rain showers or thunderstorms (though small ones) as the best bet along and north of I-4 east half of state.  If a shower or storm form near Eastern Okeechobee region say like in St Lucie County or just north outflow from there working north might enhance showers into thunder along the east coast of Brevard.

Further south into Central it appears mostly showers until one gets east of I-95 toward US1 which would be near the east coast sea breeze front, like yesterday. 

Some spots might not see any rain at all today and in fact many areas will not get rain south of I-4 but on the chance it does, no one has said it definitely wouldn't rain either.

South Florida is looking a bit more meager like yesterday but overall might have similar inland showers and some thunder conditions mainly over the Everglades, at least per the most recently available information and over the western parts of Dade/Broward.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wednesday might have a slightly better chance of showers and/or thunder but almost tempted to take thunder out entirely except for one of the days. Temperatures at 700mb might warm too much making for such mid level lapse rates that despite the available moisture ...thunder just wouldn't be possible. So far it might be Wednesday that will see a slightly better rain chance.  These two days have the overall lowest rain chance but not completely negligible.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Guidance over night shifted a little continuing with a Friday - Saturday better thunder chance and overall coverage and backed off on Sunday a bit . Latest brings a better rain chance return now though on Thursday as well as a weak frontal boundary becomes aligned across Central Florida after a broad and weak low pressure area moves out into the Atlantic just north of I-4 during this time frame  toward the end of the weekend.