Pattern Shift From Past Days - Storms Possible Nearer I-95 - One or Two Could be Strong

"Morning Catch" at The Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Mid - Upper Level Northwest flow with near zero easterly flow at the surface  of yesterday to start off this Sunday Morning appears will set up for a day most unlike that past several days. 


Colder air aloft as opposed to the past several days will be in place across I-10 and down the east side of the state toward Lake Okeechobee later today before shifting offshore in association with an upper level trough after sunset.

The GFS shows as an elongated vort max to ride down across or near what would be a sea breeze convergence boundary/zone might  which could ignite some healthier storms than of late  - so 'might get interesting'  in regions as noted in the image below.

One thing that could change the forecast for east siders would mainly be if anvil or rain/storm debris clouds  from the  'west side story' over-comes the unpolluted environment further east toward the Florida Turnpike/I-95 , stabilizing the atmosphere in those areas with cloud cover . 

Much of what occurs thus toward the east side today will not only depend on upper level energy and sea breeze convergence but what does or does not occur further west.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Monday appears to be a bit similar to today but with lower PWAT over all, less steering toward the East Coast,  no apparent upper level trigger (vorticity) depicted in guidance nor apparent in satellite imagery, and warmer at 500mb than today. 

For now will ride with Isolated storms late closer to the spine of the state but more isolated and not as 'potentially' active as storms might be able to be today.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: In previous post it was mentioned perhaps some 'stronger storms' come  Tuesday/Wednesday time frame due to colder air aloft. The 'colder air aloft' is now not shown to arrive until the Thursday time frame which is fine; however, guidance implies winds at 2000 feet of 15 kts (and stronger above that) from a westerly component up and down the state which could mean no east coast sea breeze thus very few storms but rather rain showers moving off shore.

 If so, then the high temperatures late in the week along the east coast might be quite warm unless there is more cumulus cloud coverage to provide shade. 

Either way, pattern change is taking place today and will continue through Wednesday with each day being a forecast challenge.

Continued Chance of Rains (South Central Focus) - 'Strong Storms' Next Week ?

Wednesday Morning Sunrise (Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: Boundary that had been across Central Florida early yesterday morning slid south to far South Central Florida yesterday afternoon into the evening. Guidance is split on what happens today with it, but will suspect it will lift a little back north again today or simply re-emerge further north. 

Much cloudiness and some light rain persists over parts of South and South Central Florida today. All in all , however, not much change from yesterday in that most areas that received rain yesterday are prone to that chance today (see below #1)

It appears the pattern since Colin's departure aside from the trailing boundary from that storm aforementioned in previous posts  is being complicated by a bit of a blocking pattern in the upper levels over the Western Atlantic in the Upper Levels near and in the 'Jet Stream Level". This is evident on water vapor imagery loops. A weak upper low well to the east of Florida has been dropping SSW and is now south of the eastern tip of Cuba and weakening the past few days yet while another gyre of dry air is pressing in from the east and moving west from east of Puerto Rico.  (See below : #2)    This is resulting in a bit of a 'squeeze play'' from the Yucatan up and across the far SE Gulf of Mexico and the southern 2/3rd of Florida.

 The Deeper Moisture however runs mainly south of a line running from near Oak Hill on the East Coast over toward Brooksville on the west coast and that is where the rain has fallen with the focus along the weak/oscillating surface nuisance boundary especially which is why it is the focus for one more day.

 Not sure it isn't but all by gone already though. E.G. The GFS and in part the NAM implies more of a boundary up between 3000 -7000 feet lifting north as a bit of a pseudo-elevated 'warm front' only in its inverted nature, and if that is the case will be watching for a concentration of potentially largest rainfall totals today just a bit further north than yesterday with a focus along a line running from near Vero - Sebastian on the East Coast toward near Sarasota on the West Coast along the 'surmised' superficial implication per model guidance.

IMAGE #1

IMAGE #2

FRIDAY - SATURDAY: Little change is being reflected by guidance but surely on 'the day to day basis'  differences will inevitably appear. Regardless, it now appears that rainfall chances (and more so disturbing the annoying cloud cover)  with not all that much in the ' thunderstorm category' apart from more isolated instances which is still possible  will be Smuggly with us  for a bit longer. 

"Ghost Buster"

BEYOND: The next big question is: 'What of next week?"

Per some forecast discussions from Official Sources NW flow aloft and drier air might be in the offing; so far the take of The Blogger is a bit different. 

The last two runs of the GFS are apparently not in agreement with the ECMWF (European Model) and will run favor a slant with the GFS.

If it is correct, a frontal boundary emerging from a large upper level Low embracing much of the Northeast states into early next week will drop toward Florida result in SW flow in combination with colder air aloft ; and with sufficient moisture (but not overly so) for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some possibly on the stronger side come the Tuesday and/or Wednesday time frame up through the end of next week. 

The only 'fly in the ointment' if that is to be so is that on some days the SW wind just 'off the deck' appears too strong to permit sea breeze circulations to come into play ; however, upper level energy (vorticity) does if that pattern were to become made manifest. 

"Oh Really Now"

Therefore, the 'question for next week week' is : 'Which form of  'guidance' is more helpful to the soothsayer? 

 For now, riding with the GFS: "Strong summer like thunderstorms possible much of next week into next weekend" and will monitor to see if the GFS changes keys from  Be Sharp to Sea Flat.

Smuggly With Showers and a Few Isolated Thunders Possible

5AM Radar shows Remnant Boundary Stretching East to West
 From Atlantic to Central Florida

TODAY: No significant changes today from yesterday's pattern. Trailing boundary from Colin still in place and easily evident on radar and satellite (see below) imagery.  Steering is from west to east or nearly so at a snails pace for shower activity but anything larger should be able to move a bit faster since winds above 20000 ft are in the 15-20kt range.

There is also quite a bit of cloud cover over the Gulf of Mexico which appears might drift eastward and affect sky conditions later today which bears watching. If so, that would lower the rain chances at that time, but so far it does not appear that will be the case.

Strong storms not anticipated due to warm mid-level temperatures.

There is a chance the east/west boundary will drift north a bit today then back south but all in all that would be the prime focus for rain activities today.

SMUGGLY: Muggy, "Close" (snugly or 'snuggle'), 
                   ugly,  like an 'ugly snuggle with mugginess'

THURSDAY: Vort max as mentioned in yesterday's post might not drift as far north as thought in that post (and is shown in today's post to be mainly just west of Key West where it remains most of the day.  However, will stick with previous post and hold fast (for blogger purposes ) to a slightly better chance
of showers/storms on Thursday , or at least an even greater rain 'chance' meaning larger coverage area.

The GFS continues to show 'backed winds' but now has them further south and so backed that Central Florida is put in ENE winds at the surface. This is a very unfavorable wind for storms, and as a result the guidance puts most rainfall into South Central and South Florida. Overall, details are too sketchy in this weak pressure pattern to say with much certainty.

Starting to look more and more like summer one way or the other in that regard.

Rain Chances "Might" Increase into Thursday

"Thunderstorm Associated with Colin's Presence Early Monday Evening - Cape Canaveral"

TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking from yesterday's post. Colin is merging with a much larger synoptic scale upper level trough as it lifts off to the east and north this morning toward the Carolina Coasts. A trailing surface through mid level boundary holds fast in Colin's tracks being held in place and in part due to high pressure well to the east preventing it from moving much further south.

Though this boundary may move south for a time today into tomorrow an upper level trough moving more across the  northern portions of the Midwest might cause the boundary to lift back north again.

For today, the impacts will be decreasing wind as Colin moves further away (from the WSW-SW) with continued chance of cloudiness and showers with perhaps even some 'thunder' as has been occurring more toward the west half of the state since well before sunrise. 

Best chance of thunder appears in this set up will be the west half of the state becoming more like light rain toward the east coast. All this to occur mainly 'along to south of  a line running from near OAK HILL on the east coast to BROOKSVILLE on the west coast (but not in entirety). Not so say that some 'true thunder like activity' might not occur most anywhere once daytime heating gets established - but for now history says 'watch the west half of state (Central portions)'.

WEDNESDAY: Similar set up is in the cards though perhaps a bit further south.

BEYOND to THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS had picked up the upcoming days it appears yesterday and the NAM to some regards is coming into agreement in stages. A disturbance will emerge from south of the west tip of Cuba and lift north around the Atlantic Ridge and merge with what remains of the surface boundary. The RESPONSE to that disturbance will be to back the surface winds a bit to more from the south or even SSE for a brief time across parts of Central and South Florida. Thus, suspect a 'better chance of storms and rains for more areas' with better convergence along/near the remnant boundary might be in the cards sometime between overnight Wednesday into the day time Thursday/Thursday evening.

SATURDAY: Really to far out in time to expect model guidance to be accurate on smaller atmospheric perturbations, but again the GFS hints yet another mid-upper level disturbance will track slowly toward the state making for one last gasp atbetter rain chances. Timing , if this is to be so, is also at this point in question. 

Either way, rain chances could be with much of Central through South Florida through Saturday for a variety of reasons, though 'strong' storms are not anticipated lightning activity might become an issue on Thursday and Saturday if guidance holds fast.

"Stormy Colin Skies Late Monday Afternoon"

'PsyColin-ic' Tornado Threat Bears Watching

TODAY: Short blog post as all who would bother reading this blog are already more than likely well aware to varying degrees about Tropical Storm Colin as well as the Watches/Warnings currently in place regarding the Florida Peninsula and both Coasts.

For the latest info See the National Hurricane Center at this link:   NHC Graphics Link Click Here

Apart from the 'potentials' regarding Colin itself, (mostly to the immediate west coast north of Tampa Bay or near to it), a secondary 'tornado threat' might be able to emerge come late morning toward noon time west coast and spread east to the other coast by mid-afternoon through early evening.

For blog purposes highlighting  perhaps  'secondary area of interest (AOI)' being the East Coast. Guidance agrees the greatest surface based instability this afternoon will be over the Atlantic waters and close to the coast where there it will remain rain free and the atmosphere less contaminated by early rainfall.

 Greatest surface based Instability combined with mid level directional and speed shear might increase come the 1PM time frame through around sunset as Colin becomes a bit more organized in and expands in the mid -levels. 

**** All this 'assumes' , however, the track of Colin as currently forecast .

Conditions might quickly change come the 1-2PM time frame.
Suggest monitoring favorite local channels such as for Central Florida , WFTV-Ch 9 or Channel 13 and/or NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts just to check-in and see if indeed such conditions are beginning to manifest. 

TUESDAY: Though Colin will be already well on its  way from Florida by Tuesday morning, there is quite a current of high precipitable water values dragging along behind the system. Some guidance as of this morning implies the potential for stronger thunderstorms mainly across 'anywhere' Central Florida due to this moisture combined with a pseudo-surface boundary left behind the storm. The Storm Prediction Center has already bit and is monitoring most of the state with a 'marginal risk' of severe storms Tuesday as well. 

If nothing else changes they could occur most anytime after late morning meaning this would again not be the standard 'summer thunderstorm regime' type set up.

BEYOND: Moisture band will shift to 'mainly' South Central and South Florida comes Wednesday and Thursday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will thus decrease especially along and north of I-4.

"Waiting" - Tropical Storm Watches Posted (West Coast)

"Waiting"

TODAY: Increasing atmospheric moisture depths this afternoon from south to north. If at noon one thought it was muggy-- out there is more to come later today as precipitable water increases..and so to do the rain chances. Most activity might miss the IMMEDIATE beaches south of Volusia today until late but it could rain almost anywhere right along the sea breeze front as it works slowly inland. Steering is mostly from south to north today until later when it will become a bit more from the southwest. Appears best chances of thunder right on beaches might be from near the Space Center and north though some rumbles might be audible at the beaches themselves into all of Brevard by late afternoon though it is possible that only some light rain or increasing cloud cover will be about it. Most guidance implies activity will quickly dwindle by 
0- dark time as we transition into more of a 'pre-tropical storm' like mode.

MONDAY: Will not go into detail on Monday as all news stations will be relaying their versions of what is to come on Monday.

 Overall model guidance continues to fail in regard to consistencies between them though the GFS does at least remain somewhat consistent with what I anticipate will be a named STORM system to make landfall somewhere within the Florida Big Bend region.

Guidance does show tropical storm force winds (sustained) at 2000 AGL but not at the surface; however, though "Gusts' of Tropical storm force appear likely now along parts of the west coast if not even most anywhere else in heavier rain storms, sustained tropical storm force winds at the surface  might be a bit hard to come by. 

The system itself will encounter shearing upper level winds from the west and is itself already LOPSIDED, favoring the east side.

Image below shows where the 'center' of said upcoming 'named' system or Depression noted by the 'red circle' is located versus where the activity associated with it is located. 

Even the untrained eye can see below 
that the west side of 'the system' is devoid of activity.

The RED BOX above is where it is possible some kind of 'tornado watch' might be issued (worst case scenario, however) and the purple (worst case again) for where heaviest rains might fall combined with a tornado threat.

.... But will stress that is worst case. Some areas might see but a quarter of an inch of rain when all is said and done while other areas might see 3-4" (if not more). It's simply too soon to say; additionally, the true character of the yet to organize system might not truly reveal itself until sometime mid day Monday into late afternoon. 

Guidance showing simulated future radar changes almost hourly.  

Though instability will be lacking due to increasing cloud cover, if the system does remain a bit more toward the east much of Florida north of a Lake Okeechobee and especially north of a Sarasota to Vero Beach line could see a bigger tornado threat (though far SW Florida as well could be 'in the zone) due to strong and quickly veering winds in the lowest levels and higher 0-3KM helicity values spreading from SW Florida toward east Central or east 'north' Central during the day Monday into Monday evening.


BEYOND MONDAY : Tuesday might also see 'windy showers' and/or thunderstorms scattered in nature..maybe even earlier in the morning. For now it does appear there will be at least a chance of rain Central to South Florida on Tuesday but will wait on the details until after Monday is out of the way. 

For latest Guidance and info refer to the National Hurricane Center's website and local media outlets

National Hurricane Center

Active Lightning Storms Late Today near Highway 27 (Watching Monday/Tuesday)

Sunrise - Cape Canaveral This Morning

TODAY: Instability and ample moisture combined with sea breeze convergence shown by most all guidance to occur just west of the Spine of The State to occur between 5:30pm toward 7pm could result in some active lightning storms today in that location up and down the state with a focus to just east of the Tampa area b into parts of Polk County (mainly)  and Western Lake County though many areas when combined with resultant out flow boundaries could also see activity northward toward I-10 west of JAX. Otherwise, warm and muggy inland with highs in the lower 90s and more toward the mid-upper 80Fs near the east coast .

SATURDAY: Again, sea breeze convergence related thunderstorm activity this time shifting more toward the center of the state as ridge over Florida begins to shift east. Focus by guidance as of this morning is Central Florida but more isolated in nature than it will be later today (Friday).

SUNDAY: Big changes in store as tropical moisture surge with surface low   to mid level pressures lift north and east from the Yucatan. Sunday 'similar' to Saturday but with a focus more toward the east coast as steering will be strong from SW toward the NE with some perhaps a bit strong Central Volusia up through Jax area.

BEYOND: Monday/Tuesday - though various longer range guidance  varies, the GFS implies low pressure to lift north of the Yucatan and toward the east central Gulf of Mexico   to just SW of the Tampa area with stronger veering winds up through the mid levels across much of the state beginning late Monday afternoon and into early Tuesday. 

Though it's too early to say with much certainty combined with that there is not enough agreement between other forms of guidance, if the GFS were to verify in it's over-all solution a tornado threat could emerge for much of the state mainly from south of line running from Cedar Key to Ormond Beach. Worth watching. 

This system does not appear would be a true tropical wind threat due to stronger winds aloft which ,though more favorable for mini-supercell like storm structures, would not be a conducive for tropical storm development.

Otherwise, should this system cross the state making for a 'window of opportunity for perhaps some larger rainfall totals (so far near I-4 into much of Central and South Central)...once it were to move east of the state a several day 'dry out' period will be in order.

Latent Marginal Potential For Strong/Severe Storms Late Today (East Side) - Watching Wednesday

TODAY: Clouds and showers (even thunder after midnight along the east coast) has cleared out with sufficient clearing for ample heating and atmospheric destabilization. Overall precipitable water is not exactly 'abundant' yet is sufficient for storms to manifest mainly late day along moisture convergence boundaries namely along the east/west coast sea-breeze merger which should hold steadfast near  I-95  give or take 5-10 miles either direction) given latest KSC sounding data , assuming nothing else significantly changes in the wind fields .

KSC sounding revealed a significant dry layer between 700 - 500mb which without ample forcing would result in mainly low topped showers which in fact is what most model guidance is showing in their projections of  late day 'radar simulations'. On the other hand, it does appear that the sea breeze will form with ample heating resulting in thermal spike down the spine of the state which could result in some low level yet broad cyclonic overtures across most of North Central down northern parts of South Florida.  The Convective Temperature as of early today was up at 88F, which means at least mid-afternoon or later for true storms to form across Central Florida if not later (if at all).

That said - with ample CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in place and upper level temperatures 'sufficiently cool' with 5C/-10C (700mb/500mb respectively) but not overly impressive --  storms could be able to generate along sea breeze mergers. It is possible that much of how today ends up will be contingent both upon the timing of the sea breeze mergers and how diffuse (or not) the west coast sea breeze will be as well as if that drier layer will 'fill in' a bit during the day.

The better chance for storms at least in regard to coverage will be near and south of Lake Okeechobee, while the 'slightly better chance for more isolated but possibly stronger would be from near West Palm or Ft Pierce toward Mims and west toward far eastern Seminole/Orange Counties contingent upon how for west the east coast sea breeze manages to translate.

The morning KSC Sounding showed wind aloft to be sufficient for wind gusts even in rain showers near 25-30pm but if a big storm goes up and punches through the dry layer a severe storm is not at all out of the question with winds in excess of 58 mph (or in the 'Severe' Category (CAT) ) 

WEDNESDAY: Not much change for this day in regard to timing of possible severe storms. The 4KM NAM shows severe near Tampa and strong to severe eastward toward the Cape Area by late morning (west side first) toward the east prior to or near noon time.

On the other hand, the GFS focus is more on mostly moderate to heavy rains at times with thunder.

Given increasing winds aloft with cold air present and the frontal boundary on the approach the "Marginal Severe Risk" is in place by The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) yet still for almost all of the state as the boundary works from North Florida to South Florida after dark. However tomorrow pans out will be most interesting as the NAM shows not much in rainfall at all.

 Its simulated radar shows cold cloud tops but little rainfall whereas the GFS has been consistent in a band from near I-4 south toward Vero Beach in a swath across the state of totals up to and even possibly exceeding 2" from late morning toward early evening. Central / North could be done with rainfalls prior to sunset even.

BEYOND: Much cooler especially Friday and Saturday mornings with some mid-upper 50F's possible but likely warming quickly after sunrise. Cooler in the afternoons as well by 5-7F (perhaps) but what will make the biggest difference will be the drier quality of the air as opposed to the conditions we are now having and will continue to be in through Wednesday with the higher dew-points.

No rainfall really expected then after Wednesday until mid-late week NEXT week.

Showers / Thunder Today (Some Strong/Near Severe Possible 'Wednesday Time Frame")

May 5th - Cape Canaveral 2015

TODAY: Pattern change from past several days currently IN PROGRESS as we read this and will continue to be altered and be changing through Wednesday as high pressure that was over and near the Florida Peninsula is flattened toward the east and south into the Atlantic. The resultant southerly flow around the  periphery of its western bounds combined with an upper level trough to dig southward (on both U.S. Coasts) will result in increasing West to WNW flow aloft through Thursday. Another 'Omega Blocking' like pattern is developing going into the weekend over the entire U.S. which put the breaks on active weather most everywhere except during a brief interlude across the interior U.S. in several days from now.  In the interim...

Increasing  west to WNW  flow well aloft especially going into near sunset and beyond combined with increased southerly low level flow ( with moisture) should result in  a late afternoon 'sea breeze collision' type activities somewhere within 20 miles either side of the spine of the state. Prior to that time some showers will manifest along the westward progressing sea breezes in spotting fashion.

Upper level steering will then press either rain showers, light debris type rain with mainly cloud cover,  just plain old cloud cover, or even some thunder to the east coast from near Ormond or Daytona Beach as far south as North Brevard (possibly central) after dark. Overall the best chance of thunder though will be west of I-95 except further north into Central or Northern Volusia County. Other locations along the east coast might at least begin to become a bit cloudy prior to sunset either way.

TUESDAY: As expected per last blog post several days ago , this day and Wednesday appeared to be at that time the best storm chance days (with some activity possibly strong), and The SPC has upgraded the 'storm type' range to 'Marginal Conditions' for severe type storms on both days (for the time being at least) in their storm forecasts.

Latest NAM and GFS though show very little activity on Tuesday whatsoever which does look a bit suspect. If some strong storms can form though expect they would be very close to the east coast mainly southern Volusia County and southward toward West Palm, but this day will have to wait for more details after today is done.


WEDNESDAY: If Tuesday twere'nt bad enough, model guidance is all over the map this day with one version of the NAM advertising strong to severe storms as soon as mid-late morning Wednesday mainly Central to South Central Florida along a frontal boundary and ahead of it  while other models wait off until noon time with mainly a shield of cloud cover with light to moderate rain and some embedded thunder. The GFS has been consistent with a band of heavier rainfall totals across all of Central Florida this day, but again, each model is different. Strong storms this day looks iffy as suspect there might be too much precedent cloud cover with unidirectional winds through the column . But again, this day is worth watching anyway... for beyond Wednesday comes...

  ....... THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler weather most  notably in the post midnight to early morning hours. 

Morning lows down nearly 7-10F cooler than has been the case in the past week or so at least. Afternoons will still be warm but much drier. IN fact, no decent chance of rain fall might be in place until nearly not this weekend but the weekend after that (or beginning around the 12th of May)

Isolated Storms Interior Central/South Central Late Today

Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral Thursday Morning

TODAY: A slight increase in low level moisture will result in a bit more surface based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) combined with cold air aloft for some isolated showers and eventually a few thunderstorms (isolated) at and just prior to sea breeze collisions over the interior to Western Interior late afternoon into the early evening. A storm could be strong Western Osceola County or eastern Polk Counties. Otherwise, warm once again with some lower 90Fs far interior counties and lower-mid 80Fs closer toward the immediate east coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Looks like decreasing overall moisture at this point will result in little change other than less chance of rain showers 'All Quads" except maybe   well north of I4 to North Florida. Continued near to just above normal temperatures. Rain chances do not appear would be zero but at this point to low to bother with speculating as to just exactly where rain might fall.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Repeated frontal onslaughts across the Central and Northeast part of the country will eventually erode the ridge, which in the mid levels at times will end up nearly right over Florida this weekend , allowing for a more south to southwest flow aloft to develop, especially late Tuesday and all day Wednesday.  It is on these days that much needed rainfall will have a chance to occur as convective showers and/or thunderstorms; some could be strong in isolated fashion though watching either Tuesday or Wednesday for perhaps a better chance of them being 'merely' isolated in nature. With steering more from a westerly component through the column one of both days are the best chances for the east coast to see some rains.

BEYOND: Trailing frontal boundary will not have a direct affect on the temperature regime, only indirectly by the surface wind direction directly off the Atlantic with drying conditions in typical early May fashion. All in all this will mean a return to dry conditions once again for the east coast (the west half of the state has been seeing some showers and a few lightning storms the past few days, though from the east coast one would have never known that to be the case, even by looking at the sky this activity has not even been visible to the distant west).

Best Rain Chance for Remainder of April 'May' End Up Being on Friday

"Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral" 

TODAY; Status quo with onshore breeze today from the east. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a somewhat organized line of north/south oriented low level cumulus rapidly approaching Eastern parts of North Central as of 1PM . The line at time was about 80 miles off shore. It will be interesting to see if that line of clouds is associated with a 'wind surge' or uptick of wind strength if it makes it to the coast  which, if so,  would occur some time between 2-3PM. Otherwise, dry other than maybe some spotty showers inland mainly later today.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Wind will eventually begin to turn more southerly overnight as a weakening cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. Latest GFS has been consistent with past several runs and broad-brush coverage of light rain mainly chances beginning early afternoon over much of the state but earlier on parts of far Southeast Florida and much of the panhandle. 

Several runs of the NAM and GFS both have showed some decent low to mid level Positive UVV (upward vertical motion) though mid-level lapse rates were showing to be fairly meager. Regardless, best chance of low level convergence in the presence of 'some CAPE' with cold air aloft might warrant a thunderstorm chance almost anywhere along the Panhandle but moreso along the  Florida east coast, especially from Brevard County Northward.  SPC has a 'Marginal Risk ' penciled in for the Panhandle tomorrow as a side-bar note. 

Was tempted to put in 'isolated strong possible along the east coast but lack of higher CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy ) values put the damper on that call, at least for this day's post.

Otherwise, chance of a period of EITHER increased cloud cover to overcast or light to moderate rain , even a thunderstorm. This would be desirable though considering we are about at the peak of the Dry Season and the fact that the long range GFS is not even at this point pretending that it could rain for another week going into the first couple of days of May. 

Temperatures throughout the period appear  will continue to be running near normal (though mornings  a bit above normal for this time of year ).

Chance of Strong /Iso-Severe Mainly South Central - South Later Today

Storm Tops Over Fellsmere Yesterday as Viewed From Cape Canaveral -
Storm Produced Severe Sized Hail of 1"  

TODAY: Colder than usual air aloft once again in place with sufficient bulk shear in the upper levels as anticipated. On the other hand, a bit more cloud cover is in place and surface based instability unlikely to be quite as strong as anticipated it would be today from yesterday. Atmosphere is not 'over moist' but moist enough to provide the impetus for isolated strong to severe storms. 

A few 'playing it as it goes' factors might be at hand even now. Showers/small storms well off the coast of the Cape appear to have set off an outflow boundary working east-west very close to Canaveral...where another east-west boundary appears off the west coast at nearly the same latitude. If these two boundaries 'outline' a secondary 'frontal boundary' it is too early in the day to say for certain but a line running from near Canaveral to MCO south and west into Polk County appears to be the northern most extent of any 'stronger' activity today, mainly inland if this is a faux-boundary emanating from yesterday's departing system. Several reports came in with severe sized hail, mainly in Polk County but also one in Indian River County

Further south is at time where the stronger storms seem most likely. Mainly Southern Osceola, Indian River, Okeechobee, Martin, St. Lucie, and Northern Palm Beach County.  

Again, the boundary which appears might come into play later today runs from near Canaveral to Tampa; on the other-hand, most guidance implies it might sink south toward a Sebastian to Sarasota line later in the day, so will be interesting to see how things evolve late in the afternoon through early-mid evening in that area if in nothing more than the rainfall category.  

SATURDAY; Rain chances continue on Saturday.  Otherwise, cloudier sky conditions on Saturday with mainly showers except some isolated thunder mainly just off shore South Central and South, but no matter where, coverage of 'thunder' looks much lower tomorrow, even over South Central/South (wherever that might end up occurring).

Otherwise from later Saturday through around Wednesday breezier on shore flow until around Thursday and especially Friday. So far late week into next weekend indicates we might see once again an up-tick in storm chances with some strong but too soon to say with any certainty.

Chance of Shower/Iso-Thunder Mid-Afternoon through Dark / Strong - Near Severe Possible Friday

"Sunrise - Cape Canaveral Thursday April 14"

TODAY: After some morning low clouds, sufficient heating and ample instability, though not plentiful, combined with moisture and sea breezes should be sufficient with cold air aloft to allow some convective shower activity and even some thunder (more likely later in the day) to occur mainly near and south of 
I-4.  

Given the morning KSC Sounding which shows steering easily from the WNW-NW at 15kt at 850mb all the way up to near 50kts at 20,000 ft and cold air as well, a bit surprised models are not showing for stronger storms but surface based instability looks rather weak today (per models at least).

 Therefore, wouldn't be all too surprised if even a stronger storm could get going under the right conditions. The Convective Temperature was only 83F with a Cap strength of 1 ...but with only 1.46" of precipitable water availability, activity will remain a bit isolated. Again a strong storm is possible today especially near to east of I-95 if the west coast sea breeze manages to work east far enough late in the day to interact with the east coast sea breeze in an area that remains 'unpolluted' from earlier in the day activities., though all in all at this time of day (10:45AM) nothing beyond showers and maybe thunder is foreseen for the time being).

FRIDAY: Similar conditions with some bonus points. Even colder air aloft on Friday and more surface based instability. Given that situation might look for strong to potentially isolated severe storms due to 1" or larger hail and wind  gusts nearing 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has a large area similar to the map above for tomorrow traced out in a "Marginal Risk"...(with contingencies for a possible 'upgrade' to 'Slight Risk"); but until tomorrow comes, best ride with the SPC call.  

SATURDAY: Another chance of rain and cloud cover this day , but not sure the thunder wording needs to be emphasized just yet. Though then again ...parts of South Florida might need to watched but first to get through Friday.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: Thunder and shower chances quickly dwindle but re-emerge toward next weekend. No big changes in temperature are foreseen. A period of more brisk northeast wind though could come about but other than some breezier conditions nothing beyond seasonal norms looks to be in the cards.

Chance of Showers Late / Maybe Thunder Over Night - Then Dry for Quite Some Time

A Little ' Messy in the Bloom'  for this Busy Body

TODAY: Breezy easterly flow today will become more southeast to south and eventually southwest into Thursday. Comfortably moderate temperatures otherwise.

NOW - THURSDAY MORNING: A few showers along far Southern Tip of state from leading edge of a band of moisture as seen in visible satellite image (below) . This moisture will wrap around the western fringes of high pressure and work north and eventually toward the east side of the state possibly as far north as I-4 overnight into early Thursday morning.

Latest guidance shows quite a bit of bulk shear in the mid levels and NAM shows ample helicity from surface to 3km that might keep shower activity going if not even thunder under the presence of cold air aloft (though suspect most guidance might be a little over done). 

Latest RAP/GFS/NAM all show shower activity though at least as far as Brevard County /Volusia line after dark possible anytime from around 9pm - 6AM Thursday morning with some continued cloud cover into at least to mid-morning. Given some of the parameters included the remote chance of thunder toward the East Coast of namely Brevard/Indian River Counties as a starter though discussion all refer to any potential remaining off the coast over the Gulf Stream .

THURSDAY - FRIDAY: More than one frontal boundary will be passing down the state in the next 3 days so will not get into timing of said boundaries as they will go through more than likely 'dry' and near 'backdoor types' as the previous front did. Most will not be aware of a frontal boundary that went through yesterday (for example). Thursday should be warmer than today with wind  from the Southwest  ..and again cooler Friday morning due to westerly morning winds most noticeable toward the east coast.   Friday though a cool start but nothing much cooler than recent days with a north wind even still will again be warm with highs in the mid-70Fs to lower 80Fs mainly away from the coast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: This period will be  cooler 24/7 with northerly winds eventually becoming northeast to east with time. Appears two fronts to go through during this time but nothing too unusual   . It has appeared that the period from Saturday through Sunday mid-morning will be the coolest time frame altogether though.

BEYOND: Not much to speak of other than a slow warm up to normal but very dry . We 'might' (emphasis) be entering a 'pre-wet season dry slot' that has occurred in the past outside of a few random days of sea breeze convergence cloud cover or rain showers. Most years later in April never fails to disappoint with a good storm or two, though very isolated. The same often holds true for May. Time will tell.

Keeping an Eye on North Central Parts Today for Stronger Storms , Cooler Sunday Onward

TODAY: Frontal boundary and associated dynamics working south with time this morning as satellite and radar images below indicate . 

Satellite imagery reveals that there is  'no action' after the tail end of what is seen on radar. Latest guidance appears to indicate the main core of energy will pull off to the east before the line works much further south than I-4.

Given the timing of day into Central Florida however combined with the amount of shear that will still be present  have, for blog purposes,  included parts of Central into perhaps a 'strong wind chance' if per chance a thunderstorm can get going or even keep going as the boundary approaches from the north and west. Otherwise breezy at times and especially near and in times of rainfall.

Increasing cloudiness as the day whereas on and as the clouds are even closing in on all parts of North Central before sunrise. Once it moves in that area will be socked in for the day mainly south of I4. Warmest temperatures as a result will be along a line from near Ft Pierce toward Sarasota and south.

Area of  possible thunder might be overly generous as mainly thinking won't see much activity south of Brevard or perhaps Indian River County, but funny things can happen during to just after peak heating so will leave be as shown (below)

BEYOND: Wind shifts to northerly and drying commences as boundary works south producing some lighter shower activity toward South Florida tonight but all in all it appears the front is now forecast to proceed south faster than thought with a 'fropa'  (frontal passage) before midnight across Central nearly 9 hours earlier than presupposed on Friday.

Wind breezy around 15-22mph on Sunday from the north to north- northeast and gradually weakening over Sunday night into Monday. 

Cool mainly away from the coast in the morning  (50Fs inland) but all locales in the afternoon compared to recent days. Though another front approaches in the Thursday time frame it does not appear at time that it will have much impact in the 'storm' category and it too looks to bring even cooler air. Looks like overall we are going backward in the season change to more of a late winter mode and dry for quite some time to come after late week especially if the next front goes through dry.

Next front then that might have a more immediate 'influence' in regard to storm and/or rains is around the April 13 - 14th time frame. 

Pecking at Very Warm Today - A Shower and Perhaps Thunder Near/ East of I95 Late Afternoon

Pecking Away at the Next Forecast in Canaveral

TODAY: Very warm for this time of year today and perhaps tomorrow though record high temperatures might be out of reach for most locales other than the Daytona Beach area.

Regardless, wind SSW to SW but not pressure  gradient not tight enough to restrain the east coast sea breeze from making inland progress. Warmest temperatures to be away from the immediate beaches but they too might attain a mid-80F reading previous to onset of the sea breeze, most unlikely though toward the A1A strip . 

Outflow 'Shelf-ish' Feature Approaches Shore Thursday Morning From an Ocean  Shower

Humid for this time of year, with a cumulus field developing after patches of early day 'low level clouds' which might be present in some areas burn off around sunrise  .

Best chance of showers east of Rte 27 which would move east and northeast,  with highest instability originating in SW Florida but working east and north during the day. 

This combined with the 'Lake Shadow' effect and east coast sea breeze within 20 miles of the east coast (supposedly) might make for things to come together for thunder toward the immediate coast later in the day (but very isolated if so). So far not geared toward a 'strong wording' at this time of the morning (6:30AM) other than for the Panhandle region. Any showers will quickly dissipate after loss of daytime heating (by to just after sunset).

SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness and continued warm as cold front approaches. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma) has put all of Central and North Florida in a 'Marginal Risk" for the chance of organized severe weather though at time despite better wind fields to support this idea suspect that high clouds will limit surface based instability in the presence of lack of better low level forcing except closest to the front proper. Best chance for such would thus remain closer to I-4 timing wise in conjection with best afternoon heating (north) but much depends on timing of the boundary and if possible, outflow  from earlier rain-cooled activity across North Florida which should be ongoing in limited fashion perhaps even at sunrise on Saturday across the Panhandle.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Front to sever the state around 4- 7AM with much cooler air (for several days) to follow with north to northeast and eventually easterly winds taking hold.  Cloudiness and some patches of light rain might be present toward sunrise Central working south into late morning. 

The Coast won't see anything cooler than the lower to mid 60Fs for the most part by Monday but cooler inland. Afternoon highs though will be much cooler for 2-3 days (until around Thursday).

Next front brings rain chances back in the late Thursday/Friday time frame and the GFS trend is for the air behind it to be even cooler that the one that is now slowly making its approach with some wide spread lower to mid 50Fs..but won't jump on that bandwagon whole-heartedly just yet.

Increasing Cloud Cover / Light - Moderate Rain / Thunder All Possible Today

TODAY: Image above shows it all - Storm Prediction Center is Highlighting Far South Florida for Stronger Storms but for UNOFFICIAL blog purposes only see no reason that there would not be a chance for a stronger storm as far north as a line running from Port St John toward Brooksville on the west coast. As noted, yesterday, the circumstances under which we'd have rain chances today are completely different from why we had rain chances on Monday.

Otherwise, abundant cloud cover will overall be the rule of the roost as we work toward early - mid-afternoon

WEDNESDAY: Easterly wind and a bit cooler on the east coast with a slight chance of rain interior and west but slim at that.

THURSDAY: Again...wind becomes much more southerly and increases . A bit breezy at times and muggy with a chance of showers and or thunder mainly North Central and North as the next frontal boundary approaches.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Frontal boundary to lay out somewhere across Central or South Central Florida with numerous disturbances to ride the boundary up through at least SUNDAY

Chance of stronger storms 'depending on how things develop'  and/or some higher rainfall totals in a few select areas - but details too sketchy to be definitive on anything at this point in time - though consensus is gathering that a few points in time over the weekend will not be conducive for outside activities.