Chance of Stronger Storms Mainly Eastern South Centra l- Parts of South Florida

"Saturday Morning" - Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Last day of higher rain threat chances and storms for quite some time to come (at least until  later next week) for most areas.  

Morning KSC sounding reveals 500MB temperature has dropped another degree (locally) from yesterday while 700mb temperatures maybe another 1/2 -1 F degree. It is in the 'rather cold' range and sufficient for production of rather strong surface wind gusts in or near the result of  bigger/taller storm updrafts today.

There were many reports yesterday between the 38 - 55mph wind range with two isolated severe cat winds reported . In general, the winds reported were best-guess estimates which is about the best one can hope for in many cases, or were readings from gauges that might not always be right at the ground level.

Either way, surface "cold front' is now across a line from near St. Augustine on the east coast to near  Cross City on the west coast, at least as it appears per surface wind observations tough the real 'push' still lags back up in Central Georgia where models are showing the boundary to be. Satellite imagery indeed shows the 'active functional part' of the front where convergence is still going on along it to be across or near Southern Georgia despite the northerly surface wind observations across far North Florida which might be more of a reflection of an outflow boundary from a line of severe storms that was approaching that area near sunset last night.  

Appears the latest HRRR run has over - estimated what is now going on across South Central which is pretty much nothing other than a patch of light rain so will discard that for early day activities. On the other hand, most of what could occur today will depend on where the surface boundary is actually located and not sure model guidance has a respectable handle on it. Best instability should be found today however South of I-10 and especially from near I-4 or from Daytona Beach to Brooksville and south to start the day . Upper level energy again in place today as a trigger.

The next consideration is whether a sea breeze will be able to form today. Surface pressure gradient does not appear quite as strong today but winds just above remain too strong to permit it to occur. Given the KSC sounding would think it would be possible for a very shallow boundary to form and perhaps work just to the coast but make no inland penetration at all if so.

Following HRRR trends, The RAP..and 4KM projections..and given the location of what appears might be the true surface boundary and where day time heating might have it's greatest chance to have the most effect, suspect that based on southern movement of the boundary into mid-afternoon to near Dead Central Florida by around 2-3PM if not earlier, the strongest storms might occur South Central and parts of South Florida as far south as even St Lucie County region later in the day or even Martin.

Storm motion will be from the WNW for the most part outside of boundary propagation and interactions and also be a bit slower in forward speed than yesterday. Rainfall totals then might be a bit larger today in those locations that per chance happen to be under a real big rain producer that is moving slowly.

As usual, being it's a weekend, beach goers will need to be extra attentive to the northern to western skies today. While on the beach itself it is often impossible to hear thunder at all until a storm is already so close that one has been subject to a lightning strike without even being aware of it unless it has been actually observed from a distance.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain showers with stronger ENE -NE winds . Though the front will likely clear all but maybe the Florida Keys before washing out by mid-day..moisture seems to remain sufficient enough for spotty polka dot like showers to stream by  accompanied by surface winds gusting to over 20 mph. Not such a great boating day but great for wind or para-surfing.

BEYOND ? : Mainly dry Monday through Wednesday at least. Model guidance diverges between model runs and model types with varying solutions on a run to run basis. This was anticipated per the MLB Forecast Discussion and in deed is what is occurring. The overall scheme of things appears to be a wet period coming up toward the end of next week, but the GFS is flailing it's arms up in surrender and thus far is deeming utterly useless even when compared with other model guidance. Tis the 'wet season'...and would hate to see it go to waste. Could we be in for a prolonged dry spell even in Late June? Shudder the thought !

Strong Storm Wind Gusts / Frequent Lightning Possible This Afternoon

Cape Canaveral Great Blue Heron  at Sunrise

TODAY: Upper level disturbance over North Florida analyzed by all model guidance is showing to drop south and east into Central Florida where it will mostly remain the rest of the day.

Morning KSC sounding shows the long anticipated 'colder air aloft' heralded to come several days (blogs) ago has arrived with 700mb temperatures running about 2 - 2 1/2C colder than yesterday and 500mb at 20,000 feet about 3 degrees colder than has been for quite some time. Cold air aloft, coupled with sufficient day time heating (mostly south of line running from near Mims - North Side of Tampa Bay) should make for better low level lapse rates as well.  Like yesterday there will not be  an east coast sea-breeze  which means the normal 'summer storm regime' will not be the case for today atmospheric festivities. Moisture depth has increased and Lifted Condensation Level's are already running rather low which makes for an easy  initiation with a convective temperature on the sounding of 90F for cumulus clouds and/or even a quick passing rain shower.  

Though the majority of 'rain causing coverage' will be of the shower variety, thunderstorms will indeed form today (or should at least) ..and with winds not far above the deck near 30 knts..could get rather 'breezy' to very gusty near heavier rain showers (even if one avoids the actual rain altogether). Chance of some potent lightning strikes , like yesterday, will also complete the package.
Winds could gust to 50-plus by some heavier activity around mid-afternoon or so toward parts of South Central as it now appears.

Rainfall might end a bit earlier today than it did in some locations other than down toward South Florida but cloudy skies would remain.

Strong storms will also be possible toward the Panhandle and/or JAX area late day or early evening

SATURDAY: Another and the last of short wave  disturbances moves down the state slowly . Tomorrow looks like a variation of today but guidance is showing better storm chances with both a low and mid-level trough axis aiding in convergence to be in place. Strong storms again possible this day with a marginal severe risk in the cards (though that is not per 'official outlets' namely The Storm Prediction Center) but will watch to see if the hedge their bets and up the ante from 'General Thunderstorms" in later forecasts.

BEYOND: COLD FRONT (gasp !) to move through all the state by Sunday's end ..but will clear all of Central by Sunday afternoon.  After perhaps some showers earelir (Central) easterly to ENE surface winds to increase and dry out the atmosphere for all but parts of South Central and South. Behind this arctic plummet of boundaries temperatures will recoil down toward seasonal norms overall, but morning lows will remain up at the coast with east winds coming off of low 80F ocean water temperatures.

 LATE SUNDAY - TUESDAY; These days for Central Florida look to be the days of the least likely chance of it raining at all. Breezy perhaps a bit late Sunday and/or Monday near the East Coast and on the beaches but tapering off into Tuesday and become 'seasonal' in direction in strength going into Wednesday.

EXTENDED: GFS  (and word has it) other Models are coming into a general agreement of the chances of  increasing rain/thunderstorm activity initially in the interior on Wednesday and Thursday but if the cards fall right (or wrong) rain chances might increase significantly for almost anywhere come next weekend and well into the following week for a variety of reasons. The last run of the GFS implied a 'tropical connection' from the Western Caribbean could add some boast to the the moisture levels in the atmosphere with a southerly flow regime, but that is too far out in time to cater to as of  now but worth watching.

Very Warm Again - East Central Beaches Could See Storms/Rain Today (Finally)

"Mid-June Cape Canaveral, Florida  Sunrise"

TODAY: West to Southwest flow surface and aloft will gradually increase into the weekend. This much has been now long advertised to be accompanied by colder air aloft come the weekend. 

As noted in previous post there was a concern that eventually the westerly flow just 'above the deck' would be too strong for even an east coast sea breeze to form. This appears might be the case come Thursday into Friday, but even moreso over the upcoming weekend. Will watch to see if tomorrow the east coast sea breeze can be a 'late bloomer pegged to within a mile or two of the coast' in any case and from there model guidance between the ECMWF and the GFS differs in how to deal with low pressure to form east of the Georgia - Jax coast well offshore along a stalled frontal boundary which may or might not make it as far south as Central Florida. All those factors affect the weekend forecast. But for today:

Warm again with inland highs in the mid 90Fs edging toward even warmer and lower 90Fs even along the east coast before onset of the sea breeze. Humid with rather high Heat Index numbers ranging from upper 90Fs to near 106F.

The latest water vapor loops show significant drying in the upper levels (see below) over the course of the past 24 hours yet with ample moisture in the lower levels per model guidance. Will be interesting to see the morning KSC Sounding. 

This usually means late  day activity in regard to thunder especially with continued warm air aloft which will require greater forcing with boundary mergers (lake breeze/sea breezes). 

Surprisingly the NAM handled the situation of last evening with even reports of small hail the best of all model guidance. For today, it again shows activity especially over the Brevard County area and south toward Ft. Pierce. Looks like a day that the Lake Shadow might play a role in initiation with outflow boundaries propagating northward to Brevard with time though once the west coast sea breeze works its way across the state, which will still take some time, a few showers could go up almost anywhere along either sea breeze boundary (the east coast sea breeze does not appear will make it much more than about 35 miles or so inland today so the collision will occur much close to I-95 today).

Last evening the sea breeze collision occur over and near the Florida turnpike in general but close to the east coast toward Volusia and north permitting activity to move offshore (not so further south)

THURSDAY: Westerlies up and down the atmospheric column begin to increase which 'might' put the crunch on development of the east coast sea breeze altogether but will give the benefit of the doubt and allow for one even closer to the coast to develop than for today. Might be there will be thunder but if so (and in this case) the thunder would be offshore rather than over land.  Moisture might be on the increase as well permitting more cumulus cloud coverage which would temper down afternoon high temperatures, but we'll have to see on that.

And Going into Friday - much like Thursday. If anything, the east coast sea breeze might be able to form near or south of Ft Pierce, so would look toward that area for the best chance of thunder both Thursday and Friday far South Central toward Dade County with showers possible as far north as the Cape .


BEYOND: As previously surmised numerous forecast challenges appeared to be waiting on the wings and model guidance (ECMWF vs GFS ) and forecast discussions from official sources allude to this.

For now favoring a perspective  based on history (it appears) and as inferred from the TPA office . With the east/west boundary and accompanying stretched out low pressure area in close proximity toward the Georgia/Florida border if not even further south and increasing moisture pooled along and ahead of it, looks like a case of early initiation over the eastern Gulf to those coastal counties there from Cedar Key and south going into the weekend. 

This activity then spreads eastward during the day and increases in coverage. Will be interesting to see how things pan out and when the boat comes in on the  two big player models  concerning the low pressure area and attendant trough as a summer weekend and accompanying plans for it need to be considered.

Until then, might look for a rather wet Saturday but starting on on the east side at least just like every other day this week.

Pattern Shift From Past Days - Storms Possible Nearer I-95 - One or Two Could be Strong

"Morning Catch" at The Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Mid - Upper Level Northwest flow with near zero easterly flow at the surface  of yesterday to start off this Sunday Morning appears will set up for a day most unlike that past several days. 


Colder air aloft as opposed to the past several days will be in place across I-10 and down the east side of the state toward Lake Okeechobee later today before shifting offshore in association with an upper level trough after sunset.

The GFS shows as an elongated vort max to ride down across or near what would be a sea breeze convergence boundary/zone might  which could ignite some healthier storms than of late  - so 'might get interesting'  in regions as noted in the image below.

One thing that could change the forecast for east siders would mainly be if anvil or rain/storm debris clouds  from the  'west side story' over-comes the unpolluted environment further east toward the Florida Turnpike/I-95 , stabilizing the atmosphere in those areas with cloud cover . 

Much of what occurs thus toward the east side today will not only depend on upper level energy and sea breeze convergence but what does or does not occur further west.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Monday appears to be a bit similar to today but with lower PWAT over all, less steering toward the East Coast,  no apparent upper level trigger (vorticity) depicted in guidance nor apparent in satellite imagery, and warmer at 500mb than today. 

For now will ride with Isolated storms late closer to the spine of the state but more isolated and not as 'potentially' active as storms might be able to be today.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: In previous post it was mentioned perhaps some 'stronger storms' come  Tuesday/Wednesday time frame due to colder air aloft. The 'colder air aloft' is now not shown to arrive until the Thursday time frame which is fine; however, guidance implies winds at 2000 feet of 15 kts (and stronger above that) from a westerly component up and down the state which could mean no east coast sea breeze thus very few storms but rather rain showers moving off shore.

 If so, then the high temperatures late in the week along the east coast might be quite warm unless there is more cumulus cloud coverage to provide shade. 

Either way, pattern change is taking place today and will continue through Wednesday with each day being a forecast challenge.

Continued Chance of Rains (South Central Focus) - 'Strong Storms' Next Week ?

Wednesday Morning Sunrise (Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: Boundary that had been across Central Florida early yesterday morning slid south to far South Central Florida yesterday afternoon into the evening. Guidance is split on what happens today with it, but will suspect it will lift a little back north again today or simply re-emerge further north. 

Much cloudiness and some light rain persists over parts of South and South Central Florida today. All in all , however, not much change from yesterday in that most areas that received rain yesterday are prone to that chance today (see below #1)

It appears the pattern since Colin's departure aside from the trailing boundary from that storm aforementioned in previous posts  is being complicated by a bit of a blocking pattern in the upper levels over the Western Atlantic in the Upper Levels near and in the 'Jet Stream Level". This is evident on water vapor imagery loops. A weak upper low well to the east of Florida has been dropping SSW and is now south of the eastern tip of Cuba and weakening the past few days yet while another gyre of dry air is pressing in from the east and moving west from east of Puerto Rico.  (See below : #2)    This is resulting in a bit of a 'squeeze play'' from the Yucatan up and across the far SE Gulf of Mexico and the southern 2/3rd of Florida.

 The Deeper Moisture however runs mainly south of a line running from near Oak Hill on the East Coast over toward Brooksville on the west coast and that is where the rain has fallen with the focus along the weak/oscillating surface nuisance boundary especially which is why it is the focus for one more day.

 Not sure it isn't but all by gone already though. E.G. The GFS and in part the NAM implies more of a boundary up between 3000 -7000 feet lifting north as a bit of a pseudo-elevated 'warm front' only in its inverted nature, and if that is the case will be watching for a concentration of potentially largest rainfall totals today just a bit further north than yesterday with a focus along a line running from near Vero - Sebastian on the East Coast toward near Sarasota on the West Coast along the 'surmised' superficial implication per model guidance.

IMAGE #1

IMAGE #2

FRIDAY - SATURDAY: Little change is being reflected by guidance but surely on 'the day to day basis'  differences will inevitably appear. Regardless, it now appears that rainfall chances (and more so disturbing the annoying cloud cover)  with not all that much in the ' thunderstorm category' apart from more isolated instances which is still possible  will be Smuggly with us  for a bit longer. 

"Ghost Buster"

BEYOND: The next big question is: 'What of next week?"

Per some forecast discussions from Official Sources NW flow aloft and drier air might be in the offing; so far the take of The Blogger is a bit different. 

The last two runs of the GFS are apparently not in agreement with the ECMWF (European Model) and will run favor a slant with the GFS.

If it is correct, a frontal boundary emerging from a large upper level Low embracing much of the Northeast states into early next week will drop toward Florida result in SW flow in combination with colder air aloft ; and with sufficient moisture (but not overly so) for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some possibly on the stronger side come the Tuesday and/or Wednesday time frame up through the end of next week. 

The only 'fly in the ointment' if that is to be so is that on some days the SW wind just 'off the deck' appears too strong to permit sea breeze circulations to come into play ; however, upper level energy (vorticity) does if that pattern were to become made manifest. 

"Oh Really Now"

Therefore, the 'question for next week week' is : 'Which form of  'guidance' is more helpful to the soothsayer? 

 For now, riding with the GFS: "Strong summer like thunderstorms possible much of next week into next weekend" and will monitor to see if the GFS changes keys from  Be Sharp to Sea Flat.

Smuggly With Showers and a Few Isolated Thunders Possible

5AM Radar shows Remnant Boundary Stretching East to West
 From Atlantic to Central Florida

TODAY: No significant changes today from yesterday's pattern. Trailing boundary from Colin still in place and easily evident on radar and satellite (see below) imagery.  Steering is from west to east or nearly so at a snails pace for shower activity but anything larger should be able to move a bit faster since winds above 20000 ft are in the 15-20kt range.

There is also quite a bit of cloud cover over the Gulf of Mexico which appears might drift eastward and affect sky conditions later today which bears watching. If so, that would lower the rain chances at that time, but so far it does not appear that will be the case.

Strong storms not anticipated due to warm mid-level temperatures.

There is a chance the east/west boundary will drift north a bit today then back south but all in all that would be the prime focus for rain activities today.

SMUGGLY: Muggy, "Close" (snugly or 'snuggle'), 
                   ugly,  like an 'ugly snuggle with mugginess'

THURSDAY: Vort max as mentioned in yesterday's post might not drift as far north as thought in that post (and is shown in today's post to be mainly just west of Key West where it remains most of the day.  However, will stick with previous post and hold fast (for blogger purposes ) to a slightly better chance
of showers/storms on Thursday , or at least an even greater rain 'chance' meaning larger coverage area.

The GFS continues to show 'backed winds' but now has them further south and so backed that Central Florida is put in ENE winds at the surface. This is a very unfavorable wind for storms, and as a result the guidance puts most rainfall into South Central and South Florida. Overall, details are too sketchy in this weak pressure pattern to say with much certainty.

Starting to look more and more like summer one way or the other in that regard.

Rain Chances "Might" Increase into Thursday

"Thunderstorm Associated with Colin's Presence Early Monday Evening - Cape Canaveral"

TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking from yesterday's post. Colin is merging with a much larger synoptic scale upper level trough as it lifts off to the east and north this morning toward the Carolina Coasts. A trailing surface through mid level boundary holds fast in Colin's tracks being held in place and in part due to high pressure well to the east preventing it from moving much further south.

Though this boundary may move south for a time today into tomorrow an upper level trough moving more across the  northern portions of the Midwest might cause the boundary to lift back north again.

For today, the impacts will be decreasing wind as Colin moves further away (from the WSW-SW) with continued chance of cloudiness and showers with perhaps even some 'thunder' as has been occurring more toward the west half of the state since well before sunrise. 

Best chance of thunder appears in this set up will be the west half of the state becoming more like light rain toward the east coast. All this to occur mainly 'along to south of  a line running from near OAK HILL on the east coast to BROOKSVILLE on the west coast (but not in entirety). Not so say that some 'true thunder like activity' might not occur most anywhere once daytime heating gets established - but for now history says 'watch the west half of state (Central portions)'.

WEDNESDAY: Similar set up is in the cards though perhaps a bit further south.

BEYOND to THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS had picked up the upcoming days it appears yesterday and the NAM to some regards is coming into agreement in stages. A disturbance will emerge from south of the west tip of Cuba and lift north around the Atlantic Ridge and merge with what remains of the surface boundary. The RESPONSE to that disturbance will be to back the surface winds a bit to more from the south or even SSE for a brief time across parts of Central and South Florida. Thus, suspect a 'better chance of storms and rains for more areas' with better convergence along/near the remnant boundary might be in the cards sometime between overnight Wednesday into the day time Thursday/Thursday evening.

SATURDAY: Really to far out in time to expect model guidance to be accurate on smaller atmospheric perturbations, but again the GFS hints yet another mid-upper level disturbance will track slowly toward the state making for one last gasp atbetter rain chances. Timing , if this is to be so, is also at this point in question. 

Either way, rain chances could be with much of Central through South Florida through Saturday for a variety of reasons, though 'strong' storms are not anticipated lightning activity might become an issue on Thursday and Saturday if guidance holds fast.

"Stormy Colin Skies Late Monday Afternoon"

'PsyColin-ic' Tornado Threat Bears Watching

TODAY: Short blog post as all who would bother reading this blog are already more than likely well aware to varying degrees about Tropical Storm Colin as well as the Watches/Warnings currently in place regarding the Florida Peninsula and both Coasts.

For the latest info See the National Hurricane Center at this link:   NHC Graphics Link Click Here

Apart from the 'potentials' regarding Colin itself, (mostly to the immediate west coast north of Tampa Bay or near to it), a secondary 'tornado threat' might be able to emerge come late morning toward noon time west coast and spread east to the other coast by mid-afternoon through early evening.

For blog purposes highlighting  perhaps  'secondary area of interest (AOI)' being the East Coast. Guidance agrees the greatest surface based instability this afternoon will be over the Atlantic waters and close to the coast where there it will remain rain free and the atmosphere less contaminated by early rainfall.

 Greatest surface based Instability combined with mid level directional and speed shear might increase come the 1PM time frame through around sunset as Colin becomes a bit more organized in and expands in the mid -levels. 

**** All this 'assumes' , however, the track of Colin as currently forecast .

Conditions might quickly change come the 1-2PM time frame.
Suggest monitoring favorite local channels such as for Central Florida , WFTV-Ch 9 or Channel 13 and/or NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts just to check-in and see if indeed such conditions are beginning to manifest. 

TUESDAY: Though Colin will be already well on its  way from Florida by Tuesday morning, there is quite a current of high precipitable water values dragging along behind the system. Some guidance as of this morning implies the potential for stronger thunderstorms mainly across 'anywhere' Central Florida due to this moisture combined with a pseudo-surface boundary left behind the storm. The Storm Prediction Center has already bit and is monitoring most of the state with a 'marginal risk' of severe storms Tuesday as well. 

If nothing else changes they could occur most anytime after late morning meaning this would again not be the standard 'summer thunderstorm regime' type set up.

BEYOND: Moisture band will shift to 'mainly' South Central and South Florida comes Wednesday and Thursday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will thus decrease especially along and north of I-4.

"Waiting" - Tropical Storm Watches Posted (West Coast)

"Waiting"

TODAY: Increasing atmospheric moisture depths this afternoon from south to north. If at noon one thought it was muggy-- out there is more to come later today as precipitable water increases..and so to do the rain chances. Most activity might miss the IMMEDIATE beaches south of Volusia today until late but it could rain almost anywhere right along the sea breeze front as it works slowly inland. Steering is mostly from south to north today until later when it will become a bit more from the southwest. Appears best chances of thunder right on beaches might be from near the Space Center and north though some rumbles might be audible at the beaches themselves into all of Brevard by late afternoon though it is possible that only some light rain or increasing cloud cover will be about it. Most guidance implies activity will quickly dwindle by 
0- dark time as we transition into more of a 'pre-tropical storm' like mode.

MONDAY: Will not go into detail on Monday as all news stations will be relaying their versions of what is to come on Monday.

 Overall model guidance continues to fail in regard to consistencies between them though the GFS does at least remain somewhat consistent with what I anticipate will be a named STORM system to make landfall somewhere within the Florida Big Bend region.

Guidance does show tropical storm force winds (sustained) at 2000 AGL but not at the surface; however, though "Gusts' of Tropical storm force appear likely now along parts of the west coast if not even most anywhere else in heavier rain storms, sustained tropical storm force winds at the surface  might be a bit hard to come by. 

The system itself will encounter shearing upper level winds from the west and is itself already LOPSIDED, favoring the east side.

Image below shows where the 'center' of said upcoming 'named' system or Depression noted by the 'red circle' is located versus where the activity associated with it is located. 

Even the untrained eye can see below 
that the west side of 'the system' is devoid of activity.

The RED BOX above is where it is possible some kind of 'tornado watch' might be issued (worst case scenario, however) and the purple (worst case again) for where heaviest rains might fall combined with a tornado threat.

.... But will stress that is worst case. Some areas might see but a quarter of an inch of rain when all is said and done while other areas might see 3-4" (if not more). It's simply too soon to say; additionally, the true character of the yet to organize system might not truly reveal itself until sometime mid day Monday into late afternoon. 

Guidance showing simulated future radar changes almost hourly.  

Though instability will be lacking due to increasing cloud cover, if the system does remain a bit more toward the east much of Florida north of a Lake Okeechobee and especially north of a Sarasota to Vero Beach line could see a bigger tornado threat (though far SW Florida as well could be 'in the zone) due to strong and quickly veering winds in the lowest levels and higher 0-3KM helicity values spreading from SW Florida toward east Central or east 'north' Central during the day Monday into Monday evening.


BEYOND MONDAY : Tuesday might also see 'windy showers' and/or thunderstorms scattered in nature..maybe even earlier in the morning. For now it does appear there will be at least a chance of rain Central to South Florida on Tuesday but will wait on the details until after Monday is out of the way. 

For latest Guidance and info refer to the National Hurricane Center's website and local media outlets

National Hurricane Center

Active Lightning Storms Late Today near Highway 27 (Watching Monday/Tuesday)

Sunrise - Cape Canaveral This Morning

TODAY: Instability and ample moisture combined with sea breeze convergence shown by most all guidance to occur just west of the Spine of The State to occur between 5:30pm toward 7pm could result in some active lightning storms today in that location up and down the state with a focus to just east of the Tampa area b into parts of Polk County (mainly)  and Western Lake County though many areas when combined with resultant out flow boundaries could also see activity northward toward I-10 west of JAX. Otherwise, warm and muggy inland with highs in the lower 90s and more toward the mid-upper 80Fs near the east coast .

SATURDAY: Again, sea breeze convergence related thunderstorm activity this time shifting more toward the center of the state as ridge over Florida begins to shift east. Focus by guidance as of this morning is Central Florida but more isolated in nature than it will be later today (Friday).

SUNDAY: Big changes in store as tropical moisture surge with surface low   to mid level pressures lift north and east from the Yucatan. Sunday 'similar' to Saturday but with a focus more toward the east coast as steering will be strong from SW toward the NE with some perhaps a bit strong Central Volusia up through Jax area.

BEYOND: Monday/Tuesday - though various longer range guidance  varies, the GFS implies low pressure to lift north of the Yucatan and toward the east central Gulf of Mexico   to just SW of the Tampa area with stronger veering winds up through the mid levels across much of the state beginning late Monday afternoon and into early Tuesday. 

Though it's too early to say with much certainty combined with that there is not enough agreement between other forms of guidance, if the GFS were to verify in it's over-all solution a tornado threat could emerge for much of the state mainly from south of line running from Cedar Key to Ormond Beach. Worth watching. 

This system does not appear would be a true tropical wind threat due to stronger winds aloft which ,though more favorable for mini-supercell like storm structures, would not be a conducive for tropical storm development.

Otherwise, should this system cross the state making for a 'window of opportunity for perhaps some larger rainfall totals (so far near I-4 into much of Central and South Central)...once it were to move east of the state a several day 'dry out' period will be in order.

Latent Marginal Potential For Strong/Severe Storms Late Today (East Side) - Watching Wednesday

TODAY: Clouds and showers (even thunder after midnight along the east coast) has cleared out with sufficient clearing for ample heating and atmospheric destabilization. Overall precipitable water is not exactly 'abundant' yet is sufficient for storms to manifest mainly late day along moisture convergence boundaries namely along the east/west coast sea-breeze merger which should hold steadfast near  I-95  give or take 5-10 miles either direction) given latest KSC sounding data , assuming nothing else significantly changes in the wind fields .

KSC sounding revealed a significant dry layer between 700 - 500mb which without ample forcing would result in mainly low topped showers which in fact is what most model guidance is showing in their projections of  late day 'radar simulations'. On the other hand, it does appear that the sea breeze will form with ample heating resulting in thermal spike down the spine of the state which could result in some low level yet broad cyclonic overtures across most of North Central down northern parts of South Florida.  The Convective Temperature as of early today was up at 88F, which means at least mid-afternoon or later for true storms to form across Central Florida if not later (if at all).

That said - with ample CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in place and upper level temperatures 'sufficiently cool' with 5C/-10C (700mb/500mb respectively) but not overly impressive --  storms could be able to generate along sea breeze mergers. It is possible that much of how today ends up will be contingent both upon the timing of the sea breeze mergers and how diffuse (or not) the west coast sea breeze will be as well as if that drier layer will 'fill in' a bit during the day.

The better chance for storms at least in regard to coverage will be near and south of Lake Okeechobee, while the 'slightly better chance for more isolated but possibly stronger would be from near West Palm or Ft Pierce toward Mims and west toward far eastern Seminole/Orange Counties contingent upon how for west the east coast sea breeze manages to translate.

The morning KSC Sounding showed wind aloft to be sufficient for wind gusts even in rain showers near 25-30pm but if a big storm goes up and punches through the dry layer a severe storm is not at all out of the question with winds in excess of 58 mph (or in the 'Severe' Category (CAT) ) 

WEDNESDAY: Not much change for this day in regard to timing of possible severe storms. The 4KM NAM shows severe near Tampa and strong to severe eastward toward the Cape Area by late morning (west side first) toward the east prior to or near noon time.

On the other hand, the GFS focus is more on mostly moderate to heavy rains at times with thunder.

Given increasing winds aloft with cold air present and the frontal boundary on the approach the "Marginal Severe Risk" is in place by The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) yet still for almost all of the state as the boundary works from North Florida to South Florida after dark. However tomorrow pans out will be most interesting as the NAM shows not much in rainfall at all.

 Its simulated radar shows cold cloud tops but little rainfall whereas the GFS has been consistent in a band from near I-4 south toward Vero Beach in a swath across the state of totals up to and even possibly exceeding 2" from late morning toward early evening. Central / North could be done with rainfalls prior to sunset even.

BEYOND: Much cooler especially Friday and Saturday mornings with some mid-upper 50F's possible but likely warming quickly after sunrise. Cooler in the afternoons as well by 5-7F (perhaps) but what will make the biggest difference will be the drier quality of the air as opposed to the conditions we are now having and will continue to be in through Wednesday with the higher dew-points.

No rainfall really expected then after Wednesday until mid-late week NEXT week.

Showers / Thunder Today (Some Strong/Near Severe Possible 'Wednesday Time Frame")

May 5th - Cape Canaveral 2015

TODAY: Pattern change from past several days currently IN PROGRESS as we read this and will continue to be altered and be changing through Wednesday as high pressure that was over and near the Florida Peninsula is flattened toward the east and south into the Atlantic. The resultant southerly flow around the  periphery of its western bounds combined with an upper level trough to dig southward (on both U.S. Coasts) will result in increasing West to WNW flow aloft through Thursday. Another 'Omega Blocking' like pattern is developing going into the weekend over the entire U.S. which put the breaks on active weather most everywhere except during a brief interlude across the interior U.S. in several days from now.  In the interim...

Increasing  west to WNW  flow well aloft especially going into near sunset and beyond combined with increased southerly low level flow ( with moisture) should result in  a late afternoon 'sea breeze collision' type activities somewhere within 20 miles either side of the spine of the state. Prior to that time some showers will manifest along the westward progressing sea breezes in spotting fashion.

Upper level steering will then press either rain showers, light debris type rain with mainly cloud cover,  just plain old cloud cover, or even some thunder to the east coast from near Ormond or Daytona Beach as far south as North Brevard (possibly central) after dark. Overall the best chance of thunder though will be west of I-95 except further north into Central or Northern Volusia County. Other locations along the east coast might at least begin to become a bit cloudy prior to sunset either way.

TUESDAY: As expected per last blog post several days ago , this day and Wednesday appeared to be at that time the best storm chance days (with some activity possibly strong), and The SPC has upgraded the 'storm type' range to 'Marginal Conditions' for severe type storms on both days (for the time being at least) in their storm forecasts.

Latest NAM and GFS though show very little activity on Tuesday whatsoever which does look a bit suspect. If some strong storms can form though expect they would be very close to the east coast mainly southern Volusia County and southward toward West Palm, but this day will have to wait for more details after today is done.


WEDNESDAY: If Tuesday twere'nt bad enough, model guidance is all over the map this day with one version of the NAM advertising strong to severe storms as soon as mid-late morning Wednesday mainly Central to South Central Florida along a frontal boundary and ahead of it  while other models wait off until noon time with mainly a shield of cloud cover with light to moderate rain and some embedded thunder. The GFS has been consistent with a band of heavier rainfall totals across all of Central Florida this day, but again, each model is different. Strong storms this day looks iffy as suspect there might be too much precedent cloud cover with unidirectional winds through the column . But again, this day is worth watching anyway... for beyond Wednesday comes...

  ....... THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler weather most  notably in the post midnight to early morning hours. 

Morning lows down nearly 7-10F cooler than has been the case in the past week or so at least. Afternoons will still be warm but much drier. IN fact, no decent chance of rain fall might be in place until nearly not this weekend but the weekend after that (or beginning around the 12th of May)

Isolated Storms Interior Central/South Central Late Today

Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral Thursday Morning

TODAY: A slight increase in low level moisture will result in a bit more surface based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) combined with cold air aloft for some isolated showers and eventually a few thunderstorms (isolated) at and just prior to sea breeze collisions over the interior to Western Interior late afternoon into the early evening. A storm could be strong Western Osceola County or eastern Polk Counties. Otherwise, warm once again with some lower 90Fs far interior counties and lower-mid 80Fs closer toward the immediate east coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Looks like decreasing overall moisture at this point will result in little change other than less chance of rain showers 'All Quads" except maybe   well north of I4 to North Florida. Continued near to just above normal temperatures. Rain chances do not appear would be zero but at this point to low to bother with speculating as to just exactly where rain might fall.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Repeated frontal onslaughts across the Central and Northeast part of the country will eventually erode the ridge, which in the mid levels at times will end up nearly right over Florida this weekend , allowing for a more south to southwest flow aloft to develop, especially late Tuesday and all day Wednesday.  It is on these days that much needed rainfall will have a chance to occur as convective showers and/or thunderstorms; some could be strong in isolated fashion though watching either Tuesday or Wednesday for perhaps a better chance of them being 'merely' isolated in nature. With steering more from a westerly component through the column one of both days are the best chances for the east coast to see some rains.

BEYOND: Trailing frontal boundary will not have a direct affect on the temperature regime, only indirectly by the surface wind direction directly off the Atlantic with drying conditions in typical early May fashion. All in all this will mean a return to dry conditions once again for the east coast (the west half of the state has been seeing some showers and a few lightning storms the past few days, though from the east coast one would have never known that to be the case, even by looking at the sky this activity has not even been visible to the distant west).

Best Rain Chance for Remainder of April 'May' End Up Being on Friday

"Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral" 

TODAY; Status quo with onshore breeze today from the east. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a somewhat organized line of north/south oriented low level cumulus rapidly approaching Eastern parts of North Central as of 1PM . The line at time was about 80 miles off shore. It will be interesting to see if that line of clouds is associated with a 'wind surge' or uptick of wind strength if it makes it to the coast  which, if so,  would occur some time between 2-3PM. Otherwise, dry other than maybe some spotty showers inland mainly later today.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Wind will eventually begin to turn more southerly overnight as a weakening cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. Latest GFS has been consistent with past several runs and broad-brush coverage of light rain mainly chances beginning early afternoon over much of the state but earlier on parts of far Southeast Florida and much of the panhandle. 

Several runs of the NAM and GFS both have showed some decent low to mid level Positive UVV (upward vertical motion) though mid-level lapse rates were showing to be fairly meager. Regardless, best chance of low level convergence in the presence of 'some CAPE' with cold air aloft might warrant a thunderstorm chance almost anywhere along the Panhandle but moreso along the  Florida east coast, especially from Brevard County Northward.  SPC has a 'Marginal Risk ' penciled in for the Panhandle tomorrow as a side-bar note. 

Was tempted to put in 'isolated strong possible along the east coast but lack of higher CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy ) values put the damper on that call, at least for this day's post.

Otherwise, chance of a period of EITHER increased cloud cover to overcast or light to moderate rain , even a thunderstorm. This would be desirable though considering we are about at the peak of the Dry Season and the fact that the long range GFS is not even at this point pretending that it could rain for another week going into the first couple of days of May. 

Temperatures throughout the period appear  will continue to be running near normal (though mornings  a bit above normal for this time of year ).

Chance of Strong /Iso-Severe Mainly South Central - South Later Today

Storm Tops Over Fellsmere Yesterday as Viewed From Cape Canaveral -
Storm Produced Severe Sized Hail of 1"  

TODAY: Colder than usual air aloft once again in place with sufficient bulk shear in the upper levels as anticipated. On the other hand, a bit more cloud cover is in place and surface based instability unlikely to be quite as strong as anticipated it would be today from yesterday. Atmosphere is not 'over moist' but moist enough to provide the impetus for isolated strong to severe storms. 

A few 'playing it as it goes' factors might be at hand even now. Showers/small storms well off the coast of the Cape appear to have set off an outflow boundary working east-west very close to Canaveral...where another east-west boundary appears off the west coast at nearly the same latitude. If these two boundaries 'outline' a secondary 'frontal boundary' it is too early in the day to say for certain but a line running from near Canaveral to MCO south and west into Polk County appears to be the northern most extent of any 'stronger' activity today, mainly inland if this is a faux-boundary emanating from yesterday's departing system. Several reports came in with severe sized hail, mainly in Polk County but also one in Indian River County

Further south is at time where the stronger storms seem most likely. Mainly Southern Osceola, Indian River, Okeechobee, Martin, St. Lucie, and Northern Palm Beach County.  

Again, the boundary which appears might come into play later today runs from near Canaveral to Tampa; on the other-hand, most guidance implies it might sink south toward a Sebastian to Sarasota line later in the day, so will be interesting to see how things evolve late in the afternoon through early-mid evening in that area if in nothing more than the rainfall category.  

SATURDAY; Rain chances continue on Saturday.  Otherwise, cloudier sky conditions on Saturday with mainly showers except some isolated thunder mainly just off shore South Central and South, but no matter where, coverage of 'thunder' looks much lower tomorrow, even over South Central/South (wherever that might end up occurring).

Otherwise from later Saturday through around Wednesday breezier on shore flow until around Thursday and especially Friday. So far late week into next weekend indicates we might see once again an up-tick in storm chances with some strong but too soon to say with any certainty.