Isolated Large Rainfall Totals - Even a Strong Storm or Two Possible into Mid Evening

Weekend Starts out with Baby Blues and Pinks at Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Very little change 'overall' in scheme of things from past two days. Atmospheric moisture on the KSC sounding came in a bit higher than expected, instability a  bit higher as well, with temperatures aloft a bit cooler even yet still and a convective temperature of only 87F (easily attainable today) with zero cap. 

All things consider if nothing else were to change since that 6AM sounding (which might be a big assumption) and that were to be representative of a fairly large area of Eastern Portions of Central toward South Central (even South) all things spell out then to thunderstorm coverage  pretty well written in for today for this area (mainly south of I-4 and along to east of  I75 toward I-95.

Storm motion on the other hand again is just barely above a drift toward the east at about 5-8 mph which would not overcome a stronger seabreeze. Regardless, once boundaries and outflows get set up from lake breezes and even smaller early day showers which tend to disrupt   weak low level wind  fields, today looks like another 'just about anything goes' type of day.

Even last evening storms went up along the East Central Coast while the east coast sea breeze itself was on the approach to the west coast (that is, well behind the east coast sea breeze). That has been the going fad the past 4 days in a row so will not stray from the pattern, not to say that the same will happen again today though despite that late evening storm fests of the past 4 evenings between the Cape south toward St Lucie County.  Will it be again? 

Otherwise, swell seems to be dying down just a bit from yesterday while the GFS of a few days ago showed the peak of the swell from Karl would be the weekend this does not appear to be the case based on the morning surf check. Either way, rip tides a situation to be of concern for beach goers over such a fine weekend for late September with highs in the lower 90Fs once again inland.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: These two days look like a variation of the same theme, though Sunday or both days might have a slight decrease in activity we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, a frontal boundary that has already cleared the Rockies is moving east but greatly impeded by high pressure to the east of it. Regardless, the upper level support will gain reinforcements allowing the system to find its way into the Deep South toward at least Central Georgia by Tuesday slowly but surely.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look like there could be an uptick in rain chances with again strong storms possible with colder air aloft and better westerly steering currents to the ENE-NE (toward the east coast).  Temperatures on these days might not get as warm as a result of increased cloud cover earlier in the day.

LONGER RANGE: Already eyes on next  tropical system if it comes about, to be Matthew. The GFS is spelling out Gloom and Doom (Cat 3 or 4) Hurricane making landfall somewhere between Louisiana to the Central  panhandle of Florida in several runs ; however, so far it's the 'out-liar' for the time being. Other guidance shows a system running into Mexico of much less strength. 

Regardless, the frontal boundary in question for the time being appears will be bridged over by high pressure aloft and wash out accompanied by a  "deepening  moisture  laden easterly enhanced flow" which could spell for rain chance increases along the east coast from JAX south to Brevard come latter portions of next week whence  what might be 'Matthew' by that time would still be well out in the far Eastern Caribbean at best. Much to watch for...and not necessarily that any of the just aforementioned will even materialize.

Regardless, some interesting weather changes or events might be in the stock pile for the pickins' in days ahead.

Thunderstorms Again Today through Week's End

Cocoa Beach Pier Tuesday Morning

TODAY-THURSDAY: So far we're on track since the previous post on Saturday which suspected higher rain chances for Monday and Tuesday (which was a big flip flop from previous outlooks).

Today is similar to yesterday with two key differences (at least).

1. Cape sounding came in with a CAP between 5000-10,000 feet with convective temperature in the lower 90Fs with a cap strength of 2 which is difficult to break. On the other hand..

2. The deepest moisture appears to be on the east side of the state.

What this means is that it is possible there will be, or could be, a later start of initiation along the far east side unlike yesterday where the big totals came in with the MLB Airport scoring big time. It might mean stronger wind gusts but then again on the flip side..hard for storms to get going. It'll be a matter of timing and locale..but will shoot from the hip and watch for the ever present chance of surprises.

One difference however, today, is that west coast activity has got an earlier start and it appears OFBs (Out-Flow Boundaries) might be on their way toward the Central north/south axis of the peninsula even as of 12:30pm.  Steering continues from west to east but is light and not strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. 

Outflow from western poofy showers might meet the east coast sea breeze somewhere near to west of I-95 in several hours from now so again highest rainfall totals for the day could come in somewhere in Western Brevard , Osceola, Volusia - South toward Martin County with another area over interior South Florida. Temperatures aloft are almost identical to yesterday.

WEDNESDAY: Again, a similar set up but inevitably variations in the theme will translate to potentially a big difference on where and when heaviest rain totals will add up. There are implications a mid level trough axis could slice NE to SW across and down the state which might add a convergence focus for tomorrow, however overall PWAT (Precipitable water) could lower if the GFS is correct. The NAM says, 'not so fast' and keeps the deep moisture in place. Tomorrow will be a new day so time will tell so best we can do is tell it like it 'T - I - S' when that time comes after today's atmospheric gala.

INTO THE WEEKEND; In general though the GFS brings a weak boundary at the surface through it's but barely a temporal wind shift that washes out the lowest level westerlies leaving the mid level winds from the west to WSW in place. Moisture goes up and down each day as temperatures aloft remain static. Overall, looks more like the 'summer that never' happened in the thunderstorm regime is having its day in court this week, possibly into the weekend.

Forecast Flip Flop For Monday - Wednesday From 'Dry' to 'Wet' ?"

Harvest Moon Setting Saturday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: "Julia's Memory' continues to spin seemingly on mere momentum generally  about 300NM east of JAX moving little since yesterday afternoon. All in all today appears to be somewhat similar to yesterday but with a greater focus on late day storm activity more toward the West up and down the state rather than only 'The South' -   some other storms might fire along the Lake Okeechobee Breeze earlier in the day (like yesterday). 

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY:

Emphasis on this period may well be largely contingent upon a combination of what occurs where there is a break in the Atlantic - Southern Plains ridge axis that has prevailed much of the summer. Latest NAM and to less of a degree , the GFS, imply there will be a break as an upper level trough traverses west to east further north and makes a bit of a tele-connection with 'The Julia Environment' east of Florida. 

Net affect is that as moisture remains over Florida or even increases into Monday through Tuesday  Julia or part of what remains 'appears' might become absorbed into that 'troughing' action over the  southeast Deep South ..ie., Florida in particular. 

If so, we could see vorticity (upper / mid level energy) across the state at random times which acts to increases rain chances when in combination with typical day time heating and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The GFS and NAM depict the 700mb temperatures might lower a few degrees which would make for earlier in the day shower/storm initiation and greater coverage overall.

 Both indicate, the NAM to much more of a degree and not trusted as the model output is showing 'significant rainfall totals', an increase in steering of activity toward the East Coast Monday and Tuesday, but both do show hints of this to occur in some form or fashion. 

The net result overall is increased chances of rain and thunder with two day rainfall totals from 1-3" possible if this will be the case as described (generally). Situation is worth monitoring if not for interest's sake or if planning out door activities either day. The pattern ends on Wednesday, perhaps as rain chances shift to the south half of the state.

Saturday Morning Facing West - Cape Canaveral Sunrise

BEYOND: Moisture from 'said set' up aforementioned shifts out to the east and dissipates per latest as what might be a named tropical system approaches from the east ...well east rather out in the Atlantic. Chances are if this system gets named it will lift out to the north well before ever reaching Florida.

Showers-Storms Mainly Away From Coast - Highest Concentration South Central to South

Early Afternoon Thunderstorm Closes in on The Cape on Thursday

TODAY: Appears that what remains of a 'boundary' which focused most activity on Thursday across Central Florida might have shifted a bit south. As a result, greatest thunderstorm chances today might be over mostly South Central to parts of South Florida.

Steering less that 6 mph  means very slow storm motion. Temperatures aloft similar to yesterday as well. Overall not much change from yesterday other than where the greater potential concentration of storms will occur. Early evening storms might too be able to manifest more toward interior portions of Central as sea breezes from both coasts approach each other, but more toward the west side.

Swell from Julia moved in and coupled with a near autumnal full Harvest Moon the high tides running are much higher than normal as evidenced this morning with higher waves as well. Rip currents will be a hazard within a few hours of low tide or during the prime swimming times around noon to early afternoon.

WEEKEND: Really not much different than what has been advertised meaning mainly interior storms possible focusing more toward the Southern half to one third of state with temperatures similar to today and yesterday. Random showers could move ashore early evening through morning along the east coast mainly from the Cape and north any evening though outside of the day time driven activity but if so will be extremely isolated. 

BEYOND: The GFS has been attempting to hint that some energy could result in a "Julia Revisited' as a piece of vorticity breaks off and circulates around a ridge building across the Southern U.S. come early to mid next week while the remnant surface low becomes absorbed in the next trough in the mid levels to move east over top that ridge. Either way does not at time seem to make much of a difference in the sensible weather across Florida  other than that there might be a day come  Tuesday or Wednesday when rain showers will be more likely. Otherwise, increasingly obvious light , easterly flow commences and mainly rain-showers with possibly some thunder well inland to west side of state will be the norm much of next week (as it stands now).

Showers and Thunder Possible (Mainly Central)

Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Over Merritt Island Florida
Closing in On the Outer Most Barrier Islands of The CAPE on Wednesday

SYNOPSIS: Up front does not look to be as active today as yesterday. A boundary easily visible projecting from Julia lays nearly East/West along to just north of I-4  (see image below) and might drag a bit further south during the course of the day.  

Instability will be moderate today with precipitable water through the column at to over 2" yet still. KSC sounding revealed this moisture is rather evenly distributed through the column and not focusing in the low and mid levels which is not exactly supportive of strong storms. Most thunder today should manifest near this east/west  boundary somewhere near to mainly south of I-4 over the Interior and toward the East Coast late afternoon though earlier day activities from the east coast sea breeze may form, but mostly restricted to be rain showers until later today (but not exclusively).

Though thunder possible over the "Glade Regions' have omitted from this post due to low populace in that zone, hence low regard.

Yesterday's boundary interactions created for the better 'light shows' along Central Florida where a few SWS's were issued (Special Weather Statements). Rainfall varied varied from zero to just over 2" in the Rockledge- Canaveral Strip and down the outer barriers common with SW Flow aloft as was the case yesterday .

Temperatures aloft today are rather warm with 700mb coming in at nearly 11C which is quite warm (too stable?) with zero capping and a convective temperatures of easily reachable 87F. 500mb temperatures are not faring much better.   

Rainfalls today not expected (at this point) to be as high as yesterday but somewhere in Central Florida might wring out some high totals given the overall scheme of things, that at this point it does not look like a strong storm wording is warranted.

Steering from west to east is also much weaker today so it is questionable to the blogger if thunder (in Cloud to Ground form) will make it out to the barriers. Will give it the old college try and say, 'heck, let's go for it'..but not so sure about that. The mid level boundary on satellite imagery (as referred to above) is too alluring to deny that potential altogether.

At One Point Yesterday Storm Activity Did a Fine Job of Tracing the Coast

 BEYOND: Most rain-shower activity from Friday into Saturday and Sunday might be focused more toward Central and South Florida with areas north of I-4 remaining ' in question'  at least in regard to current projections.  

Rain chances really drop around Tuesday as onshore flow (easterlies) set up from the surface in the mid levels with spotty atmospheric moisture depths  meaning potential for coastal showers early through mid morning working inland during the day but thunder chances overall even during later in the day inland look a bit meager. But where those if any chances will be is too far gone to bother speculating.

SUPER DUPER BEYOND: Could the first cold front be on the approach late month? Would not be out of the question as the GFS and other guidance is showing signs of front to drop through sometimes between September 26 - October 1st.  Time and time again have seen the first front of the year between September 21st to October 1st. 

Fear not. Latest GFS shows temperatures will absolutely PLUMMET with this boundary if it makes it through to below even 70F before October 1. The ever true sign of fall's harbinger in Canaveral from my history here has been the elusive 67F on old mercury. From that time on..the gigs up, summer's over, and cooling bills begin to decrease.

Storms Possible Through Friday( Mid Afternoons into Early Evening )

Much of Forecast For Peninsular Florida will depend on the remaining
  'Breadth of Influence'  from Tropical Storm Julia 

SYNOPSIS: As anticipated in previous post, thunderstorms and/or rain showers will be possible into the weekend. With time (especially Saturday and/or Sunday) most of the activities will be more toward the interior areas and then 'west side story' begins, but until that time it appears as of this morning enough of a southwest flow aloft through the 'mid-level's of the atmosphere will steer activity or propagate storms toward the east coast over time. Ample moisture is forecast per NAM/GFS Model Guidance to remain through Saturday but become a bit more sparse toward the Monday/Tuesday time frames. One of these days might be a bit more dry over all but with time a regime of isolated , early morning coastal showers propagating inland during the day  with dry afternoons east coast will resume in fashion of the season - vague, yet Vogue .

TODAY: With ample steering from the SW remaining even down to the lower levels one aspect to consider is if , when, and where an east coast sea breeze will be able to manifest. Weaker flow aloft permitting, a sea-breeze even remaining closer to the east coast should be able to form -- albeit even if a bit delayed-- at least as far north as Ft Pierce with more of a side shore component further north toward the tip of the Cape. Better convergence along that boundary initially could result in better upward forcing apart from regions washed out by any antecedent outflow boundaries from 'mere showers' and/or where high cloud cover might overcome low level instability as a result of cirrus already present or storm top anvil debris which should become prevalent the later in the day we go.

Better chances of perhaps a stronger storm are noted in above image and below .

This graphic depicts only as an example an AOI (Area of Interest) for later today given the SW Flow aloft and where the east coast sea breeze might be able to penetrate a bit further inland toward Lake Okeechobee region. It is not wholly exclusive of other areas that may well see a storm however.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Will take these days as they come, as so far as today appears at least somewhat representative of what these days will be like, apart from subtle variations as steering begins to weaken and east coast sea breeze thus can make better inland progression. 

Otherwise, moisture for all general purposes remains. One aspect for all days is that temperatures aloft will not be all that cold so any pulse stronger storm is going to have to wait for peak to post heating  hours coupled with low level convergence as a a result of two or more boundary intersections.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY; Activity for the most part will begin to focus more inland with a decrease of coverage most notable especially on Sunday as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis begins to take over and steering points more toward the interior and west side of the state.

BELOW: Some images from radar and satellite of the progressive manifestation of said named Storm Julia from it's more formidable points of contention, namely in the No Name period when storm force winds had already been and were being reporte. It might be noted that Tropical Storm category winds were observed , both sustained and in gusts, prior to the Official Designation by Ship Reports for at least 3 hours as the No Name crept northward. All the better for naught , however. No need for a tizzy.

Soon to be Julia moves ashore near Vero Beach at 3AM.

Near Melbourne , FL 

  Soon to be Julia Centered near The Fish Camp in West Cocoa

 At this point in time of radar image winds had already gusted in parts of Brevard near the beaches and per observation towers in North Brevard to near Tropical Storm strength (in gusts) Not long after Sustained TS winds were reported offshore Daytona with gusts of the same in parts of North Volusia toward Ormond Beach areas in and near heavier rain activities

At this time I believe we had Julia at hand though not officially designated as such.

Increasing Rain Chances (Statewide) Tuesday through End of Next Week

TODAY: A bit more moisture today than yesterday but little over all change in the scheme of things. With onset of east coast sea breeze rain showers with possible thunder should shift inland and toward the west half of state with subsidence (sinking air) behind the east coast sea breeze producing generally a stabilizing effect for the immediate beaches. If ample moisture remains behind the boundary  might see some showers begin to show over the near shore waters toward dusk.

MONDAY: Little change from today though moisture might decrease a bit there is no good agreement between NAM/GFS and the difference only increases in the subsequent 24 hours. Will ride with GFS and say, 'little change from the prevalent pattern' ever since last weekend after Hermine exited the scene.

TUESDAY: Area of Investigation (aka - area of interest) near the south east Bahamas will be lifting west and north today through Monday to approach the Florida east coast. None of the guidance shows a close surface low but rather that increased moisture with depth concentrated in the lower to mid levels (at least as shown) and perhaps a brief mid-level circulation should produce a 'sensible of note' change in the scheme of things in regard to increasing shower festivities in the over-night to morning hours along the east coast shifting inland during the day.

The NAM model shows a vorticity lobe in mid levels moving directly in on East Central Florida overnight Monday while the GFS is much slower and further south toward the West Palm Beach  - Vero Zone Tuesday 8AM. The GFS is now in fact in line with a PREVIOUS NAM run (as of the last output) indicated a 'good chance of rain along the east coast' almost all day Tuesday with rainfall totals greater that 1" in some areas to in excess of 2" in others  ................

.................going into 1 AM Wednesday morning. Overall the inverted trough is shown by the GFS as well to shift west with moisture trailing behind it. That should shift the 'worst or best rain chances depending on how one looks at it' out of the area after Tuesday into mid-day Wednesday leaving more of a 'summer like' pattern favoring interior areas in the afternoons.

Either way you slice it though moisture necessary for showers and some thunder looks like a reality in direct association with this 'area' either late Monday or sometime into mid-day Tuesday.

Both models in varying degrees infer the potential for an inverted trough to extend from near the surface up through 10,000 feet from roughly off the NW Tip of the Yucatan to run northeast toward Central Florida to eventually Northeast Florida to act as a focus of convergence. 

The NAM also shows a better low level convergence boundary to form underneath that boundary initially as an inverted coastal trough which than assimilates itself into the mid-level trough. Most important! 

If this is to be the case, rain chances are increased as well as rainfall totals, especially over eastern portions of Central Florida southward toward Miami. Time will tell but for now running with the less pessimistic side of the GFS more generalized evolution of things. The NAM has a history of over emphasizing minute features , especially beyond 24 hours though at random times does quite well. For now, don't think this is going to be one those times.

BEYOND: As noted above, the moisture associated with the Invest moves in mainly on Tuesday and remains through at least Thursday. The GFS onward shows additional moisture from the east to move in keeping the air mass moist most of the time with periodic 'dryings' but they are short lived. 

Thus, any time that rain chances INCREASE or DECREASE are impossible to specify at this point. The GFS does indicate that any increase or decrease could occur within a 12-24 time frame. Thus, just because one day starts out dry does not mean it will end that way or vice-versa. 

Strong Storms Possible East Side north of Vero Later Today

Anti-crepuscular Rays Late August 2015  Afternoon Facing East

TODAY: With all eyes on Tropical Storm Hermine to be potential minimal hurricane focus would obviously be on that system. The post   will not address those concerns as they are self evident and can be investigated at leisure.

Locally for North Central to South Central Florida there remains a chance that localized affects including an east coast sea breeze combined with a rather moist and unstable atmosphere accompanied perhaps by an upper vorticity lobe spiraling out in the mid levels from  Hermine's environment could contribute to some fast moving and small but rather potent storm activity, though isolated, along mainly the east side of the state.

Chance of heavy but brief downpours so rainfall totals not expected to be as significant as yesterday's (at least not at this point) but could see some severe thunderstorm warnings, if not even a tornado warning (mainly from near the Cape and north later today.

The other region more directly related to the Tropical System is from Tampa and North up toward Tallahassee and east to Jax into tonight but mostly closer toward I-10 into the overnight and early Friday.

FRIDAY: As anticipated, a band of trailing moisture will drag it's tail behind Hermine into Sunday before breaking up . Friday does not appear at time to be a very active day so will leave well enough alone and see what's on the plate tomorrow morning in that regard. Guidance is remaining low key on rain chances however up to this point.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Chance of isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms and showers early afternoon into early evening almost anywhere Central Florida with activity to move off the east coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: These days look like low rain chance days as all things return to normal.

BEYOND: Another one if not two more 'systems' yet to be per se could affect either directly or indirectly the state up through mid-September. What was shown by the GFS and ECMWF models as a 'hurricane to be' is now being shown as but a mere tropical wave to pass south of Florida. Time will tell, but it does appear that at least some tropical wave like activity with increasing chances of oceanic like showers in the earlier parts of the day as moisture increases again (after a drying out earlier in the week) could start up again later in the week, typical of very late summer into early fall weather. Said morning type activities along the east coast could begin again come Wednesday and/or Thursday mornings and continue for several days from there on out...including afternoon showers/storms inland to the west coast.

Large Rainfall Totals Possible Into Thursday - Watching Tropics Early September

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Invest 99L  near the Florida Straits appears to be a rather large area of 'interest' though a small circulation area seems to be evident on visible satellite animations near the Keys but the better chance of there being a circulation appears to be near the North Coast of Cuba. The area appears to be moving west and all model guidance suggests a slow drift toward the WNW-NW and eventually North in the next 24-60 hours. How far west it goes is one question before beginning a turn as well as what happens once it does.  Any wind threat appears to be minimal with the bigger 'interest' as far as today's post goes being rainfall totals. Not to say things could change but won't press the envelope in that direction today.

There remains a rather high degree of uncertainty what exactly will transpire in the next four days though there are suggestions that not one but two areas of 'circulation' may develop but exactly where is the big stickler, even for where any heavier rainfall totals might occur -- hence, will stick with a broad brush general trend on the sensible weather that might be on the table into mid-week .
Although showers are again possible during the day almost anywhere, no direct affects from the system will be experienced other than for far South Florida and Keys. Showers possible east coast almost anywhere during the day into this evening.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Trend is for convergence along the far SE Coast working north with time perhaps Monday into Mid-Day Tuesday working into Brevard County. Exactly when that 'might' occur though is not certain .

 The system could be well WSW of the peninsula and still have indirect affects on the state but one thing is certain, high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" will be in place for several days (at least Wednesday and maybe into Thursday). 

The focus though unless the storm area becomes   wrapped up will not necessarily be around any 'center per-se'..as a broader mid level circulation might end up being the real culprit for heavier rainfall totals combined with vorticity lobes (spin energy) that rotate within the large area of mid-level low pressure.

 Both the GFS and NAM show rainfall totals between 2-4" along the east coast coming into mid-week from Miami as far north as Southern Volusia County and into the interior as well as some areas along the west coast. 

IF a center truly becomes more organized then a POTENTIAL land fall near the Big Bend area near Cedar Key or north of there is always possible. 

Wouldn't be surprise though to see another AOI (Area of Interest) develop SE of the South Carolina Coast or even East of JAX. Just to complicated a situation to say for certain.

Circulation appears near Keys but the overall AOI is much larger.
POSSIBLE Future motion shown with a landfall anywhere from North of Tampa to the Panhandle but that is more of a question that a statement

WEDNESDAY: Discrepancies obviously continue but decent rain chances do not seem to be questionable at this stage. At some point anywhere along the line from Mid-Day Tuesday (perhaps) into Wednesday there is the remote chance of bursts of gusty winds accompanying some shower activities (squally like weather) and should the area become more organized we might be hearing about the chance of 'land falling waterspouts' though at this stage that chance looks rather remote. 

The Latest NAM (in the writer's opinion) is up to playing the extreme edge game as it historically does - so to speak  - suggesting that waterspouts along the east coast would be entirely possibly late Monday and especially Tuesday but not buying it at this stage.

Will note that the CFSV2 shows no surface development but for an inverted trough to stretch NE to SW across the state for some time. That was the solution the GFS was showing even a week ago and it has gone back to that solution several times since then. In short, there is no 'steadfast guarantee' that Invest 99L will ever develop into a 'closed well formed system' though given the current satellite animations that might be questionable.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND: The system 'should' have cleared out toward the NE of Florida (we'll just have to see about that) with rainfall chances greatly diminished most areas, but for the chance a trail of deep moisture lagging behind the system, but where - if so - cannot be determined at this stage.

 INTO FIRST WEEK SEPTEMBER: GFS   and ECMWF and another model all show a much more potent storm approaching the Southeast United States. Granted, there is no area of interest yet to be seen out there, regardless, that  three are showing what looks like could amount to a 'most definite hurricane' which might impact anywhere along the U.S. East coast from Florida to the Carolina's does bear for leaning an ear out for it after we are cleared of Invest 99L which may end up being named yet still.

Isolated Thunder - 'Stronger' Thunder Possible Later Today (Heads Up Next Week ?)

Great Blue Heron by Coral Seas , Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Chance of showers with some thunder possible mainly south and east of I-4, with best chances south of line from Melbourne but then and into the interior south mainly near to west of I95 and near to south of SR528  (Osceola County?) later today.

Morning KSC sounding came in rather moist with most moisture concentrated below 10,000 ft and temperatures aloft running 1-3C cooler than recent days . Thus, some stronger downdraft wind gusts possible late day if the atmosphere hasn't been scoured out or worked over after a full day of sunshine. Will have to wait it out to see how it all unfolds.

MONDAY: Some drying out in the atmosphere is  forecast Central with most moisture North Florida and far South. The weak tail end of a frontal boundary will be approaching to make a bit of a 'back door' passage early Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Tail- ender, back door type 'wind shift front' to cross Central between 5AM - 9AM. Northeast onshore flow though light will follow with little chances of rain in many areas but Southern  and far Northern parts of the state. Northeasterly flow might begin to increase later into Wednesday for 24-36 hours but nothing unusual.

WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY: Will watch for periods of increased atmospheric moisture to reach the state from time to time from the east. So far the first pocket appears might reach East Central before sunrise from around the Cape south toward Ft Pierce. Other days show much less moisture and other days more so timing of which days exactly early day ocean showers will be possible cannot be ascertained that far out in time at this point. Otherwise, most thunder later in the day would be well inland toward the West Coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: There is a remote chance that tropical activities might be worth watching for come Sunday into next week. The latest Coupled Forecast System (CFSV2) shows a tropical storm or depression possibly crossing Central Florida from east to west while the GFS has a system approaching far SE Florida only to curve north then northeast at the last minute sometime late next week. 


If either of these is even close to correct is not really possible to determine this far out, for it was only two days ago the GFS nearly showed a hurricane near the state as did the other model and  no sooner did that 'potential'  appear di it but disappear  completely one model run later .

The point being, tropical storm season is clearly making a showing and will continue to allude forecasters   from time to time well into September if not October as well. 

Similar To Yesterday With Some Thunder 'Mainly' East Side (Strong South)

Soaking Up Sunday Morning For All It's Worth

TODAY: Similar pattern overall in regard to where it is mostly likely to thunder and/or rain and when though local synoptic scale pattern is a bit different.

Latest surface analysis and satellite/radar animations clearly show a surface  - to up through at least 5000 ft - low west of Jacksonville rotating nearly in place. Surface winds in response are from the northerly component immediately to the west of the low center while across Central they are mainly SW -SSW and breezy especially portions of Central Florida. Further toward far South Florida there is little in the SWs to speak of if not already an east coast sea breeze.

Morning sounding showed though somewhat drier air across South Florida though the temperatures aloft strangely came in much cooler than expected. This coupled with greater instability and better chance of Lake and Sea Breeze mergers might herald a better chance for Stronger Thunder later today.

Further north SW winds appear will  prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of Ft Pierce (in general). Best chance for showers 'per se' but also some thunder along the east coast later today though that is not to say that some thunder could not occur any where mainly south or near of the I-4.  Winds quite breezy in the immediate vicinity of rains : thunder or no thunder.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: For now will take it on the daily basis so not going to get into finer details today. All in all it still appears that perhaps either Monday or Tuesday might be a bit of an 'early onset' type of day with more areas at least receiving measurable rainfall but again not all guidance is in agreement . Over all though, the sea breeze might not be able to kick in once again along East Central on Monday.  Better chances of thunder then would be Tuesday (other than some 'rumbles') and/or Wednesday.  

Steering from the SW begins to decrease  even more notably by Wednesday so that in toward the weekend most of the rains will occur away from the immediate coasts. Eventually an overall more easterly flow is seen to appear around late week into next weekend leaving the coasts dry other than perhaps the onset of some early day coastal showers.

Mid-Afternoon to Early Evening Showers / Some Storms

Cozy Canaveral Condo Cumulonimbus  !

TODAY: (Saturday)  As noted in previous post pattern change had been under way and is now in place. Variations in mid-level temperatures, distribution of moisture availability throughout 'the column', rather poor mid-upper level lapse rates, and not all the best low level convergence for upward forcing due to  (a) periods of cloud cover at times of peak heating , and (b) lack of better meeting of sea breeze convergence even on east coast as gradient winds aloft increase a bit means : mostly showers with some thunder possible . 

Stronger activity would result however in larger rainfall totals due to slower storm motions for those locales that actually do see some rain today. 

Better chance for storms appears as of 11AM to be Central to Eastern portions near to south of I-4. As can be seen below in the satellite image a large cluster of storms and showers and associated cloud cover is expanding its veil across some areas and as a result closing the 'window of opportunity' for better heating in some areas. 

The high clouds over the Central areas are dropping south just in time for the high noon period it at least seems. The region south of I-4 looks like the area to have the better instability and low level convergence along the sea breeze. Though thunder could happen other areas (even rain showers) .

Best chance of any storms near East Central toward SE Interior toward the coast appears to be well into the mid-afternoon with other areas mainly near SW having the earlier start. This activity would then propagate both north and east with time if cloud coverage allows. Not sure guidance isn't a bit over done for today in rain coverage. High clouds play havoc with model guidance at time.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Increasing SW Flow 'just above the deck' might prevent sea breeze onset almost entirely. If too much cloud cover is also at play rain chances might be greatly reduced. Otherwise both SUNDAY AND MONDAY we might start to see more chance of mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes) crossing the areas across the day which would be the prime impetus for rain fall.  
The NAM was showing 'Sunday' to be a rather 'big day' in the rainfall category but has since made a sift to either Monday or Tuesday (if either day actually evolves as the NAM has been showing it would be rather surprising as it tends to outdo itself all too often while other days it is utterly blind to rainfall chances) so time will tell. All in all though it will be greater energy aloft more so than lapse rates or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that seems will be the core trigger Sunday-Monday-Tuesday.

BEYOND: Going into Wednesday -Friday the pattern begins to 'back off' a bit with less SW steering. See breezes will begin to play into the equation with continued chances of storms mainly away from the coasts but again, some further model agreement as to when we will lose this still yet fully evolved pattern is not certain. All in all, Thursday and Friday still look like better chances for rain than maybe even today, but for different reasons.

Pattern Change at Last! - - Ante Upped for East Coast Rain Chances Into Next Week

"Morning Stroll"

OVERVIEW (SYNOPSIS): Not much deviation from previous blog post a few days ago in regard to 'Thursday into Early Next Week". Slowly but surely the Atlantic Ridge axis is no longer not only going to be the dominate feature north of Florida resulting in east to west storm steering, but it has mostly either pulled off to the east entirely to be of little affect or dropped to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee depending on which level of the atmosphere one is looking at.

The Curse of the "Warm-Dry Spell" is coming to it's demise today into Saturday  As high pressure aloft circulating clockwise from the Lower Plains states region (give or take ) has weakened on its eastern fringes enough so that within the weakness region across Florida and parts of the Deep South weak low pressure is forecast to form around the 5000 -10,000 foot level over Georgia to become more organized and drop south across the Panhandle and eventually even into the far NE Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

 What this means for most of Florida (namely north of generally West Palm Beach) is that a SW to NE steering pattern (albeit rather weak) will be taking shape through the weekend.

Though daily variations in atmospheric  moisture availability will be problematic at times (namely South of Lake Okeechobee and at times east of a line running from near Brevard County SW toward Ft Myers) for the most part during the next 5-6 days it looks like there will be several opportunities for areas east of I-95 (even at times east of US1) to see some long awaited rainfall.


TODAY: Though steering remains light it will be from a westerly component. East coast sea breeze should hold off a bit today and with onset of it in presence of PWAT (Precipitable water) at 2.00" + and the absence  of early day cloud cover  could result in showers near if not even over the east coast areas. 

Other activity could form along the west coast sea breeze and outflow from that activity should ignite more showers/storms toward I75 going into mid afternoon. Overall state coverage as a result will be higher today though storm strength does not appear will be an issue apart from the usual lightning threats at times.
Image below is a 'general depiction' as usual. Not all areas will see rain today and somewhere down toward interior SW Florida could see a thunderstorm today as well (though not shown here).

BEYOND: Appears that some days heading into the weekend there is a chance the east coast sea breeze might even be held off almost altogether at times especially from Brevard County and north but which days if any (especially Friday - Saturday) is hard to determine at this point. Locations where east coast sea breeze is held off entirely (now that steering works in favor of the east coast) could actually be a disservice once again negating the needed low level convergence the sea breezes provide to see off showers and storms despite ample moisture availability...regardless... 

.... several "early onset' days appear to be at hand with near sunrise if not pre-sunrise activities beginning along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville and especially toward Cedar Key and the Big Bend. This area might see some 'grand totals' over the next 5-6 days well in excess of 3-4" if models hold true.  

Early onset days resulting in late morning OFBs (outflow boundaries) heading east and south could set off additional activity going into early afternoon which would 'march' eastward toward the interior and even the east coast, perhaps as early as late morning to early afternoon on some days. 

One thing that will be down-player to the overall scheme is a TUTT low to approach the state toward the weekend from the Bahamas region. This might act as a drying out mechanism for parts of south and Central Florida .

As a result, no guarantees on which days this might play havoc on the forecast for now, but a few 'less wet days' are possible especially south of I-4. Overall over the next 6 days the region north of line from near Sarasota toward Melbourne might have the highest rainfall totals, especially along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville with a secondary area from near Titusville and north along the east coast. High temperatures in the afternoon will be held down a few degrees as well as a result of increased cloud coverage during the normally warmest times of day.

Chance of East-side Rain 'Ticks-up" - Watching Tropics Today / Late Next Week

Small Thunderstorm West of Melbourne, FL Sunday Afternoon Viewed from Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday although moisture appears to be more ample per guidance than was otherwise suggested would be today. The overall 'scheme-of-things' remains unchanged  for the most part in regard to where the better rain chances will once again be  with the dry locations remaining dry.  The anomaly later today might be for showers and some thunder to impact the southeast coast into the Northern Keys after 9pm through midnight south of Ft. Pierce or West Palm Beach area.

TUESDAY: Ridge axis across Central to lift to North Florida leaving again dry locations dry (e.g. far east Central specifically). 

WEDNESDAY: Again, though no two days exactly alike with varying amounts of moisture available it appears a trough will being to lower heights along the eastern seaboard eventually causing the low level Atlantic Ridge axis to shift toward South Central or even to retreat further east with less direct influence on the state -- even to possibly south of Lake Okeechobee for a day or two into the weekend. If so..

THURSDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK: Better chance of rain and thunderstorms close to the east coast early afternoon some days toward mid-evening.  Even so, more cloud cover on certain days will put a dent in the heat for the over night hours by the  mere presence of debris clouds in those areas that have not only not seen rain..by nary much more than a few clouds from time to time. The past two runs of the GFS are showing this to be the case as does the CVS-V2.

TROPICS:  It looks like a named tropical storm will be forthcoming somewhere in the West Central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic (and moving west ) possibly later today with no threat to Florida. Otherwise, both the GFS and CVS-V2 show the chance that an even better defined system might traverse along a similar course to enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico well out after Day 10. Whether the course of motion of 'said yet to exist system' is reliable is well too far out  to bother being of concern (if it even does manifest), though the time draws nigh for the tropics to 'heat up' -- the ocean temps certainly have.  
In any case, the hints are that it might be worth watching for come the August 10th time frame and beyond.