"Sundog" in Center of Image formed by ice crystal in the high altitude cirrus clouds

Sundogs are made commonly of plate-shaped hexagonal ice crystals in high and cold cirrus clouds or, during very cold weather, by ice crystals called diamond dust drifting in the air at low levels. These crystals act as prisms, bending the light rays passing through them with a minimum deflection of 22°. If the crystals are randomly oriented, a complete ring around the sun is seen — a halo. But often, as the crystals sink through the air they become vertically aligned, so sunlight is refracted horizontally — in this case, sundogs are seen.


TODAY: Based on latest satellite imagery and a throw in from model guidance for comparison, high clouds today will be  less prevalent than of yesterday.  That means in a nut shell, more sun than not. Winds from the NNW-N later in the day at 10-18mph along the open areas with highs in the low-mid 60Fs, and some upper 60Fs South Florida.


TONIGHT/MONDAY: Winds becoming light after or near dark and veering toward the NNE-NE-ENE through the overnight. Coastal lows from Canaveral and south should level off mid-late evening in the mid-upper 50Fs, whereas further from the coast lows will fall within the 40Fs realm with only a few high clouds.


On Monday the wind will become ENE-E during the day with highs all areas in the mid-upper 60Fs, possibly lower 70Fs SW Coast of the peninsula. Clouds becoming a non-issue in the high altitude level category, but a better chance of lower level clouds due to moisture off of the Atlantic. Monday overnight lows again warmer than the previous evening, remaining in the low-mid 60Fs Canaveral and South, 50Fs inland or upper 40Fs. Winds continuing to veer toward the ESE through SSE toward sunset.


TUESDAY: Winds overnight will be  veering yet more toward the S-SSW-SW. A cold front will be entering our 'picture' but have little to no impact Central and South Florida in days ahead. Circulation around high pressure near Bermuda continues warm air advection with highs all areas in the mid-upper 70Fs with partly cloudy skies with a small chance of mostly cloudy intervals. In short, nothing like the past few days have been by a long-shot.


WEDNESDAY: Cold front will be struggling to impinge through the peninsula with noteworthy impact. Any rain showers should  be restricted to the I-4 corridor (Tampa/Orlando/Daytona) ie. North Central and north, although a sprinkle or light rainshower 'could' occur Central Wednesday evening toward sunrise Thursday. Mostly cloudy and a pleasant overnight low in the 60Fs.


THURSDAY/SATURDAY: Winds behind the front as it undergoes frontalysis quickly become ENE-E behind its decaying boundary pulling east and out over South Central Florida never really reaching far South Florida. Lows remaining in the 60Fs east coast overnight with highs in the mid 70Fs interior, but cooler east of US1 due to the influence of cool ocean waters and light onshore winds.

Florida Front Frolics Forth and Through

Infrared Satellite image shows front's position around 730AM south end of Lake
Okeechobee, after clearing Central around 6AM. Red shows in general the jet stream level winds today through most of the weekend and thin patches of high clouds associated with those winds. Another image further down shows those winds in graphic form.

Colorized Depiction with labels of surface temperature in Fahrenheit Degrees at 730AM EST. The 60F line HAD been north of Dead Central prior to the front early, early this morning. Blue arrows show direction of colder air impingement southward.

TODAY: Best surprise is no surprise in the case of today. That being, the cold front went through per schedule and is now toward the south end of Lake Okeechobee one hour after sunrise. Much drier air is located over North Florida with dew point temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20Fs. In comparison, the Daytona Area has dewpoints now in the mid-upper 30Fs and East Central toward Canaveral remains a good 10-15 degrees higher. The dew points  are a good determinant of how dry the air is. The lower the dewpoint the drier the air. The dry air is working south all day along with the colder air (drier air holds less heat).


Highs today will likely not get above 60F north of a line running through Melbourne or Palm Bay area toward South Tampa Bay...with highs near the lower 70Fs far South Florida. Highs in the lower 50Fs North Florida. NW wind all day at 10-15mph.  This cold spell in a sense will not be as bad as the previous one for two reasons. 


1) It looks like we will start out with less brisk of a wind thus wind chill temperatures not a big player; and, 


2) All in all over night lows not looking to get toward freezing on any overnight period. 


This will simply be a bit of a prolonged very cool to cold period with intermittent cloudier periods, especially over the Southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the state through the weekend. Thus, although it might be cooler further north (North Central and North), this area is more likely to see more of the sun and feel direct warmth from it's rays as opposed to those in South Florida. Give or take which ever one prefers. 

Today and Saturday Jet Stream Winds forecast with front location mid- morning today drawn in. This shows the air mass moving over Florida will be a bit of a modified Pacific NW type and not straight from the North Pole as is the case when there is a widespread freeze over the state. This also shows how Pacific type winds are playing in to the equation, aiding in the modification of the' air mass', although this depiction is for generally 30,000 ft aloft (6 miles over head), as opposed to at the ground.

Note the wind speeds annotated in the image above provided within the white squares with values ranging from 70 - 120 knots (kts).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Coldest overall day, colder than today all areas by generally 3-6 degrees during the day and much colder Saturday morning all areas, as well as Sunday morning.  The warmest overnight lows will likely be EAST of the both rivers in Brevard County and southward. Same reasoning will apply far west coast south of Tampa. Lows do not appear will get to freezing except toward far North Florida, but mid-upper 30Fs and lower 40Fs could be widespread these mornings. Those warmer areas will likely remain closer to the mid-upper 40Fs, and warmer Keys and coastal SE Florida.


MONDAY: Still no change in previous line of thinking. Warmer east coast as onshore winds develop over night Sunday night or late in the day, preventing temperatures from falling along the east coast. No truly Cold spell   for QUITE SOME TIME TO COME also remains at this point;  only perioeds  "on the cool side" from time to time (so far). Maybe some showers or at least a cloudy period toward Wednesday with the next front, but as stated, cold air with this next boundary has yet to materialize more than a few tics below normal  seasonable readings.

Three Cold Days Ahead to Commence Overnight- Tonight

Cold days EMERGENCY  beginning Friday morning, although not as cold as in this image. We might be lucky to see blue sky to much of a degree for Friday and Saturday, unlike this pristine image shows . More below.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Okay, not quite an emergency, but this post does have urgency. Late day post this Thursday evening. Post haste make not waste, so it will be made brief.  


A second cold front after yesterday's, can't even tell one went through given the warm air  today, is on the approach as noted in Wednesday's post. The front will be across Central Florida between 3AM -7AM Friday morning  and   approaching the north shore of Lake Okeechobee during sunrise. Wind behind the front becomes northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy at times over night..with mildly cooling temperatures as would be expected after sunset. 


The bigger change will be post-cold front early Friday as full cold air advection occurs during peak heating on Friday. This will offset the normal diurnal heating cycle, and in fact, temperatures will likely FALL all morning after sunrise toward noon or early afternoon. Highs Central remaining in the mid-50s and lower 50Fs far north central to upper 40Fs further yet north. South Central and South to be in the low-mid 60Fs, and maybe some upper 60Fs far south.  


Good chance it will become at least mostly cloudy mid afternoon as dense jet stream cirrus clouds and 500mb cirrostratus clouds are swept well overhead, blocking the sun's rays .


Despite the cloud cover blanket potential, lows by Saturday morning might still fall to the mid-upper 30F north half toward the lower-mid 40Fs extreme East coast (east of US1 toward Canaveral and South) and south Florida. Saturday appears will be the coldest day of this set up from sunrise to set, cooler than Friday by several degrees round the clock with continued cloudiness seeming to be a good bet. If the sun can be shining more than my line of thinking is this evening, temperatures will be easily 5 degrees warmer than noted in this post if not more. That does not appear to be likely though, even if the clouds are not as prevalent. Point is, back to the jackets and wind chills for a time.


SUNDAY: Frost possible Central and Northern Interiors, and warmer all areas by noon time or so, with highs into the lower-mid 60Fs Central, warmer south. East coast overnight lows Sunday night (east of US1 from Port Canaveral and South) might fall only very little after dark Sunday night.


MONDAY: Warming trend all parts of the state with a quick rebound. Onshore easterly winds   becoming more SSE toward Wednesday will prevent overnight coastal lows from falling below the low 60Fs. That is a big turn around to have overnight lows possibly warmer than the day time highs of Saturday and Sunday . 


BEYOND: The last Long Range model indicates a trend toward a chance of rain on Wednesday with another front in the area; however, temperatures are not expected at this point to fall to the low degrees of this front tonight or that previous one last week. If this year is like that of last year, this next cold snap might be the 'end all of end alls' for this season other than " onesies or twosies cold duration 'snaps' " 

Gusty Winds Today, Rain Good Bet, A Strong Storm Possible

Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) Lines and 10 Meter Winds AGL in Knots (Above Ground Level) per the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS) Website (see link in graphic). Front is shown in Gulf of Mexico. Expecting stronger activity today , if any, to be south of the red line. Prefrontal trough to be enhanced by late morning toward noon time with higher sun angle, although cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day offsetting  heating.

The above image shows where some boundaries at the surface exist. The satellite image shows what the sky looks like from above the clouds we see looking down toward earth.

CLOUDY skies can be see from space over Florida. Storms
are embedded within these clouds, mainly off Southwest Florida, with another small line becoming organized  about 60 miles west of Cedar Key near the lower Big Bend. The 'cold front' really is not much of a cold front seeing how it originated over the SW United States. The colder air is behind another front to come early Friday.

TODAY: Rain chance increases across the state today, although anticipate that not many areas will see the heavier rains. In fact, most areas will only experience light rainfall. A trace of rain fell in Canaveral near daybreak along with a "Red Sky at Sunrise". There is an old adage, "Red Sky in Morning, Sailor Take Warning".  Rain chances are shown by most of the model guidance to pick up late morning from west to east as daytime heating (albeit weak due to cloud cover) increases mid-level lapses rates (change in temperatures with height) to only a small degree. Otherwise, wind energy associated with the mid-upper level troughs which are propagating the surface front eastward will increase across Central and South Florida after Twelve Noon. At that time is when rainfall coverage could increase. Any storms will be embedded within the cloud cover, and will not be easily discernible upon their approach until very close to any one (your) location. Temperatures to remain in the low-mid 70Fs, possibly toward upper 70Fs far East Coast south of Brevard.


STORM CHANCES: As of this writing, a small cluster of storms with some lightning has taken shape well west of Cedar Key, FL which is located generally WSW of Gainesville, FL along the west coast. The biggest cluster of storms is well west of SW Florida in the Gulf. This cluster is closely linked to the warm Gulf waters of the Loop Current. It is thought by all guidance they will never make it to shore once they begin to depart those warm waters. So far, loops of radar and lightning animation seem to be verifying this line of thinking, but can never say never toward South Florida. For now though, the trend of several days has shown little activity over South Florida with this system, and early morning model runs have not changed along those lines.


Better chance appears now to be South of I-4 and north of a line running from near Sarasota to Vero Beach as was surmised yesterday. A few graphics are included below with descriptors.

Helicity is a measure of corkscrewing winds in the horizontal. The red shows higher helicity. The higher this value, the greater potential for lifting mechanisms in the atmosphere to act upon any shower or storm that can manifest in the generally unfavorable environment today. But one can never be sure in cases similar to those of today. In the past, a strong toward severe storm or two has managed to manifest regardless of preconceived notions. Believe the best chance of any such activity today over land will occur between the lavender lines, especially Brevard County. 

This above plot is as close to 'actual' as one can get. NOW, we can look at the Rapid Updated Cycle (RUC) model forecast plot for this afternoon around 3pm. This is  showing the Energy Helicity Index at the lowest atmospheric levels. The Green Shows at least 'something worth noting'. This value combines both helicity and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere...(long story).

01KM EHI  (Energy Helicity Index) per RUC. Note where the green is located. By the next hour in this run of the model, these values are even higher but have moved offshore Brevard, Southern Volusia, and Indian River County. Prior hours to this time frame show little. These are coincident with during and just after peak heating, no coincidence. Note another peak in green toward SW Florida. 

 ...For today, cloudy and breezy. Guidance shows winds of 40 knots just above the surface, so it is possible Small Craft Advisories and Lake wind advisories could be needed after 11AM toward late afternoon as the prefrontal trough and front cross the state. Guidance also shows winds could remain elevated to breezy well after dark. Winds from the South to SSW becoming SW-WSW at 14-22mph with gusts toward 32mph near any showers or possible thunder storms. The strongest wind gusts in storms should they be able to manifest COULD top 55mph, but coverage of such activity will be very isolated and therefore the Storm Prediction Center is no longer outlooking Florida for severe weather. The more favorable location is the Carolinas closer to the parent surface low pressure center.


Better chances for strong activity almost anywhere along the west coast toward West Central and SW Coast, as well east East Central. Brevard/Osceola, Eastern Orange, and Indian River Counties seem to have a better chance of stronger winds and a brief but heavy down pour, not to discount Northern Palm Beach and Martin Counties as well. Cloud to ground lightning is possible as well, but very isolated. Expect most lightning to be  in-cloud or cloud to cloud. 


It has not rained heavily in quite some time for most areas, so it is a good point to be made that roads could become slick easily today, and will be traversed during rush hour while still wet. The biggest threat today will be the roads, although some gusty winds and who knows, maybe a brief 'spin-up' like tornado toward East Central, but definitely not hanging any hats on that hook.


BEYOND: Front to clear the state after dark, and become draped out across the Florida Straits close to or just south of the Keys until the true COLD FRONT crosses the state overnight Thursday night and very early Friday. 


COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY FRIDAY..meaning, cold air filtering in on NW winds even during peak heating. Breezy on Friday and cold, becoming cloudy as well due to the potential of fairly thick altostratus and cirrostratus clouds...meaning..no sun. Hopefully, this will not be the case, but if so, could be highs Central and North will never breach the lower 50Fs, warming into the lower to mid 60Fs South Florida.

TODAY at 3pm. PREFRONTAL TROUGH in DASHED BLACK. This boundary
will be the potential real weather maker for rain related activity, although showers can accompany the actual front in blue as well. Partly cloudy on Thursday with increasing clouds late as the next front approaches.

 THURSDAY OVERNIGHT: Jet  streak of 140 kts winds aloft will be departing the SE States placing Florida in the left  exit region (right rear quadrant)..this generates lifting in the upper levels and could induce cloud coverage during the time of cold air advection.
A lethal combination!! for those not favoring cold weather.


FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Much like those last days that were cold. Winds become light with some sunnier skies but remaining very cool during daylight hours through Saturday and even Sunday to of less a degree. ..but morning lows to not appear will reach freezing, and even frost might be hard to come by due to light winds.


MONDAY: Cool start and then rebound. It still appears another stormy system will be on the horizon around week three of January, but this system now on our door step and the cold air to follow over the weekend and Friday might just be the end of the worst in the temperature department. Just Maybe.

Strong To Severe Weather Possible on Wednesday

Latest visible satellite image from this Tuesday morning. A cold frontal trough is taking shape into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)..shown. The Low over Texas is in the upper levels with a surface low further to the east in developmental stages. High pressure is gradually easing off the east coast of Florida with very light winds over much of the state gradually becoming SE-SSE today and S to SSW-SW on Wednesday as the high pressure moves further away and the front approaches.

TODAY: Peninsular Florida in the prime time of niceties today. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (do I hear a low 80F somewhere?)  except near the beaches and their cooler sea surface temperatures. Light winds and only a few clouds except toward the Panhandle and North Florida where denser clouds are producing potentially light rainfall over the Panhandle or at least dense cloud cover.  The image above is annotating areas of potential weather wary concerns for Wednesday. More on this in the next image.


Overnight lows tonight in the 60Fs state wide as clouds and moisture increases and winds become due south and pick up toward the 10mph range and stronger toward daybreak.


WEDNESDAY: Front crossing through. Winds becoming S-SSW at 12-20mph, possibly gusty. Increasing clouds Central and South right after day break with rains and possible storms already in progress NW Florida approaching the West coast from near Sarasota and north then across toward JAX early through mid-morning.  Winds at various levels of the atmosphere per the morning GFS Model Forecast Run show  sufficient speed shear / bulk shear  and even a little directional shear toward NE Florida Southward toward Ocala/Daytona/Sanford/North Titusville working into early afternoon, through various levels of the atmosphere to support winds gusts in the 40-55mph range in any heavy rain storm or thunderstorm. Thus, believe there COULD be a severe thunderstorm watch in affect at various times for different areas beginning early day through early evening (South Florida). Image for 10AM tomorrow morning per the GFS run with personal annotations...below:

In red is where I'm thinking lies a potential for severe winds at or above 58mph in gusts or even brief straight-line in any thunderstorm that can organize. Could be a brief tornado 'spin-off', but organized Deep Layer directional wind sheer is not really appearing to be sufficient for a flat out call on such formations as of this morning. South of the most southern red line, potential strong winds below severe category. Note that there is a second front to come some time toward overnight Friday night/early Saturday.

 
WEDNESDAY (CONT'D:) Rainfall to progress from west to east (and southward) during early to mid morning, first impacting the west side of Florida as far South as Sarasota well before reaching far East Central. Could be hearing strong to severe storm reports filtering in by mid-morning well before rainfall reaches the east coast. The Storm Prediction Center early today has ALL of Florida under a "See Text", meaning they are watching the situation, but not ready to hoist any 'for certainties' for a severe potential. If that were the case, Florida would be in what is referred to by their stringent guidelines as at least a "Slight Risk" (for severe weather). "See Text" in this case could mean that wide-spread severe weather is not expected, in which case any alerts or warnings to be issued will be on a case by case basis, and are not of a high enough threat at this point for the state to be under closer scrutiny for a full blow 'threat' .  Rainfall should be reaching south of I-4 after 12-1pm and progress Southeast ward through the remainder of the state mid afternoon through mid-evening before ending all areas well before midnight Wednesday evening.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs and lows in the 50Fs..partly cloudy. The second front is forecast so far to be crossing through overnight Friday night toward Saturday morning. The details on this boundary's passage will need to be refined as the time draws closer.


WEEKEND: Drier and much cooler to cold in the mornings. It is possible highs will never crack 60F Central and North on Saturday, with a slow warming trend albeit remaining below normal on Sunday. Cool start Monday morning with what might be a big recovery into mid-week next week as temperature recover to seasonal norms, if not a notch above those.

"Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs"

Tale of Two Fronts On The Way Mid-Week

Sunrise This January Morning. Image is a video clip take from the actual video now on YouTube

TODAY: Nice Sunrise This Morning. Video can be viewed at  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S1wnY-5zv4


Otherwise, High Pressure is centered very close to if not over the Florida peninsula today as a complex frontal boundary gathers its wits across the Deep South with low pressure centered over North Central Texas. This system will progress eastward through tomorrow with snow as far south as San Angelo and Midland/Odessa area toward the lower panhandle region.  Meanwhile, the high pressure over Florida will be slowly progressing east and off the Peninsula during the day on Tuesday with southerly winds slowly ensuing. Temperatures to remain quite pleasant at to just above what would be considered seasonally 'normal'.


TUESDAY: Light winds again, with increasing cloudiness ahead of the approaching front, especially over portions of North Central Florida and all of North Florida. Some strong storms are possible over the Panhandle beginning late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening.


WEDNESDAY: Cold front will be approaching. South winds becoming SSW during late morning toward noon time. Becoming mostly cloudy with increasing rain chances from NW to Southeast from sunrise to sunset. At this time, would not expect any or very little rain to fall south of I-4 until after 1-2pm. Strong toward severe category storms due to strong winds are possible, mainly north of I-4. Even if no thunder is heard as far south as a line from near Vero Beach to Sarasota and north, stronger wind gusts are 'possible' due to the strong nature of the winds aloft being dragged to the surface (ground level), especially in heavier rainfall areas.  The front will continue through the remainder of the state, impact Central and South from early-mid afternoon through sunset, clearing the state by mid-late evening.


THURSDAY: Not much all that cool really, another front is on the way toward the weekend. More details concerning that boundary in a later post. So far, the guidance has been holding back on the second boundary being a rain maker; however, the trend is toward the temperatures again becoming very cool toward cold 24 hours a day, not unlike our last event...most notably this go around toward the South 1/2 of the state.


HERE IS AN IMAGE FROM THE GFS with a hand plot of fronts and pressure systems for WEDNESDAY MORNING. This image is derived from the 7AM run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) computer model forecast for only the surface parameters. This model shows wind fields, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture content all the way up toward 35,000 feet above ground at what is considered in the field of meteorology "standard constant pressure heights " in increments of millibars. Again, this is only for the surface, or in other words, what it would look like in the morning newspaper.

GFS Surface depiction for Wednesday morning. The fronts and text have been drawn in for explanatory purposes. 

BEYOND: Note there is the second front to come. It is behind that front the cold air will arrive, which could be a good 36-48 hours after the first front on Wednesday. There has been a fairly strong signal that we will again be fairly cold once again in Florida, and perhaps another good chance we will encounter and even greater severe weather threat heading out of week two of January toward week three. Realize, the last week of January can often be one of the coldest of the winter season, being as it is one full month after the lowest sun angle (December 22nd). There is a time lag as the earth's surface is still cooling. But, one can never know for certain. Last year, our coldest days were over during the beginning part of January.

Winds of Change Beginning - Up to 3 Rain Chances Possible Toward Mid-Month

If only the weather was a simple as a posted sign. The sky does have it's signs when one learns how to read between the transparent lines. 

Infrared Satellite Image and Animation Prior to Daybreak indicates that  mid-upper level clouds shown by the gray to white color scheme are moving from the west toward the east. Model guidance clearly shows this influx of moisture aloft as dictated by its depiction of moisture aloft. This moisture will be in place in varying degrees, mainly across the north half of the state and a portion southward toward North Lake Okeechobee all day, thinning out a bit toward mid-late afternoon.

This image shows the moisture aloft from a different perspective. Data acquisition interpolation plotted out in color codes, with blue being the most moisture. The wind barbs point from west toward east. Animation of the satellite image shows this is in fact the direction of cloud motion  

Winds of change, meaning, model consistency in a broad sense indicates the days of cold are coming to an end, and chances of rain are entering the mid-long range time frame in the second and third weeks of January. It has, afterall, been quite a while since any rain has truly been in the forecast. There is a chance that not only rain chances, but strong to winter time severe storms will be possible heading toward mid-January into Week 3. Long range temperatures are not expected, so far (fingers crossed)..to plummet to those experienced recently. This was the prognosis in recollection of an earlier post for the future, and so far  this is holding true to form. Can't even really be sure but the signs are consistent. Cannot  hurt to gaze forward in possibility. Meanwhile...


TODAY: It is Saturday, January 7th. As can be seen in the images above, a mid-level ripple in the atmosphere (short wave trough) is passing over head accompanied by moisture. This can be seen on the satellite image and in looking outside, I see an orange/pink sunrise beginning to aspire. Winds are dead calm and temperatures statewide are running in the mid 40s toward lower 50Fs. Warmest temperatures are under the thickest impinging cloud cover toward the Tampa area where the clouds act as a blanket aloft, not allow warmer air from the previous day to escape into the atmosphere. Like yesterday, there is wide spread fog , some very dense, in many areas. Areas outside of the fogged in locations remain unaware that neighboring areas are experiencing this fog. The fog will lift out by mid-morning at the very latest with highs in the upper 60Fs, although some mid 60Fs where clouds are most prevalent are possible. Actual high readings could be in the lower 70Fs, but I would not expect that to be the prevalent modus operandi...in other words, only relatively briefly. Most  likely toward Lake Okechobee and South where clouds will not be as prevalent is where consistent 70Fs will occur, unless clouds are not as prevalent as current line of thinking is depicted.


TONIGHT Thru TUESDAY: Gradually warmer overnights by a few degrees as well as days. A few clouds, light wind, and some near to right on "True, Blue, and 72F" days...in fact, possibly even warmer, especially on Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (south).  A cold front will be on the approach; the jury is out concerning its impacts as far as how much, where, when, and how strong rain will fall including a strong storm potential. It is my inclination this go around to preclude a severe threat, although it is tempting to consider it given the forecast wind fields on the GFS model. Thus, watching the Wednesday time frame for at least rain and maybe more than simply that. If conditions warrant a more in-depth detailed low down,  we will delve into this day with more in-depth analysis and description in a future post or posts. 


WEDNESDAY:  As noted above, a possible pre-frontal trough and associated cold front will bring in the biggest chance of rain we have had for quite some time. Not necessarily at this conjuncture that it is 100 percent certain...but we are leaning that way. The good news though, is that it does not look to get much colder after the boundary passage than it is this morning.


BEYOND: Though it will not be getting much colder, there is a reason. This could very well be only the first of up to 2 more fronts within a one week to 10 day time frame, each carrying a rain potential..and each with a chance of greater impact and accompanying strong to sever storm investigation as an over all pattern in the wind fields at all atmospheric levels takes place. 

Wear Layers Through Wednesday

Layers of the Skin. Layers of Clothes Add Protection to our nerves and warmth  from Wind Driven Cold Air That Penetrates the Top Layers of Our Skin. This added layer (s) will be necessary in varying 'degrees' through Wednesday. By Thursday late morning, we can start shedding.

TODAY: Not doubt it is cold outside today, even in the sun. In the sun protected, but wind driven shade it's a different story, downright nippy. As of 1:15pm it is 43F degrees at this location from home, colder still to the North and North West. Far cry from summer's 93F at this time. No need really to go into any fine details, since this is the story, with none other to discuss. The high pressure circulation drawing south the cold air will rotate more toward the state than retreat back to the west a bit tomorrow as another 'short wave' ripple in the atmosphere passes by. This will only change the wind direction back toward the WNW as it begins to retard in strength in the next 48 hours. Nonetheless, the cold air will continue tomorrow, albeit a bit warmer tomorrow by several degrees after noon time. What is very interesting is that dew points are running in the single digits in some locations around the Central and Northern Portions of the state..with lighter winds tonight..this will allow the ambient outside air temperature to fall all the more. Thus, there is FREEZE WARNINGS in affect for basically everyone who reads this post, except far toward South Florida and east side very close to the beaches from Brevard and south.


WEDNESDAY: Cold morning everywhere except as shown in the image below...that is to say, it's all relative. The east coast from near Canaveral and South will likely be spared the worst with a low in the 33F- 38F range, but elsewhere lows will range from the teens to low 20Fs near and north of I-10, warming toward the mid-20Fs to low 30Fs range most other areas statewide except as shown in the image. Blue indicates 30Fs and 20Fs...the narrow green along the east coast is closer to 40F, but this might be just a tad too warm as indicated by the latest GFS surface temperature depicted.

Note the 'green' along the coasts. Yet, blue extends well into the interior southern portions of the state. Light winds over  the Panhandle could drop the temperature shown here significantly lower than shown here, especially with the very low dewpoint temperatures into the teens and single digits.

 
BEYOND: The biggest jump upward in temperature first appears will occur on Friday afternoon, and from there on out through the weekend we will be returning to climactic norms, with lows in the 40Fs to lower 50Fs, and highs in the 70Fs. No rain on the horizon yet.

Winter - For Real - Arriving As I Write This Post

Microscopic View of Frost. Note the amazing order in this realm of frozen moisture madness

TODAY: No need for a weather map today. Fact is, a cold front is passing down the peninsula this morning as the sun rises, and will continue onward to the South beyond the southern tip. What's there to see? Wind behind the front will come from the NW around 12-18mph, possibly breezier toward the Barrier Islands as cold air intrusion collides with warmer air  wafting just above the waters of the rivers...although strong winds are not really anticipated , the wind chill will become notable by late in the day as the sun starts to set and we lose solar heating within its capacity. Highs not likely to get out of the 60Fs today except toward South Central and South Florida.


TONIGHT/TUESDAY : Another influx of cold air tonight on continued NW winds. Coldest overnight to early morning since last winter earlier in that season. Lows in the low-mid 40Fs coasts, mid 30Fs through low 40Fs interiors. The National Weather Service is already sending out the alert of a wind chill advisory for all of Tuesday through at least late morning, apparent temperatures in the 20Fs. Some areas toward the North could see some upper 30Fs, with highs possibly not making it out of the 40Fs on Tuesday after the second surge. Time to pay the winter piper's dues at long last. The inevitable arrived.


WEDNESDAY: Possible frost away from the immediate coast, as well as some freezing temperatures toward Northern interior of North Central, but 30Fs are possible as far south as NW Dade County in rural Miami area and elsewhere, everywhere statewide (other than the Keys). Closer to 40F from the Barriers of Southern Volusia and South along the east coast within a mile or so of any coastline, except the Panhandle and all of Northern Florida where it will be colder. Lighter winds just might allow for frost formation, impacting agricultural interests of any kind, including home plants that are outside. 


Thankfully, the lower wind speed will reduce the wind chill factor, with the chill factor being the resident occupant. In other words, cold by our standards and what we have been acclimatized  toward. Point blank, we're not used to this. Thermostats might have to come on to heat mode. I have yet to turn mine on since that last time it was turned off a long time ago last year. A little warmer by afternoon though than on Tuesday with highs in the 50Fs to lower -mid 60Fs (South Florida).


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Very cool/cold starts, but it does not look like it will not be as cold as Wednesday morning. Warmer in the afternoons as well, and from the afternoon onward subsequent days should be progressively warmer , approaching near normal for the weekend.


WEEKEND: Back to where we started, like yesterday's weather. Another front or two is forecast to press through heading into week two of January, but not with the impact of these two that are front and center. Will this be the worst that winter has to offer this year? I have doubts, but so far, that is what is being depicted by the overnight run of the Global Forecast System into mid-month.

New Year's Day Will Be All Right - Followed By The Chilly Bite

Depiction from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the surface layer of the atmosphere for New Year's Day morning.
A cold front will be approaching the SE states and Florida as well...Monday morning.

NOW: Florida is now being encompassed by high pressure at the surface and upward into the middle levels of the atmosphere. The air within the high pressure is also rather dry, so as it can be seen upon a glance outside, the clouds are few and far between. Additionally, the wind is nearly calm at times. Does it get any better than this! (that is not a question). The same conditions will prevail for New Year's Day, but the high pressure area will be shrinking in size and strength in prelude to the very big local weather change which is on the approach for the entire state.


NEW YEAR'S DAY:  Much like today sums it up, perhaps a few degrees warmer, with light to calm winds at time. Dewy in the morning. Epic with few clouds.


MONDAY: Based solely on the afternoon run of the GFS model which is just becoming available as I write, the model is showing that a cold front , the cold front, will be located closely in the area of Central Florida during sunrise Monday. Timing naturally as to exactly when remains a small question, but in the big picture is rather irrelevant. The point is, behind the front is when the 'big change' in temperatures will occur. I would not expect given the circumstances shown in the moisture fields, that we will have any precipitation with the front -- mostly a band of clouds in association with moisture just ahead, along, and just behind the surface front. Winds behind the front will be from the NW, with little to no temperature rise once that front goes through..even with full sunshine at noon due to cold air advection (cold air moving in). Mixing of this cold air moving in under clearing skies in the afternoon could result in a very cool and breezy mid-late afternoon with temperatures falling through the 50Fs (which is a good 20F colder than those of today and tomorrow). In short, it looks like jackets and sweaters will be needed on Monday, especially later in the day out of wind protected areas.


TUESDAY: Coldest statewide morning of the year and season, and only 2 days into it. 2012 is starting our fresh, crisp, clear, and cold. Air mass will not only be cooling, but drying. The Wind will let up on Tuesday after a cold start with lows in the mid-upper 30Fs most areas...working toward the lower to mid-40Fs along the immediate coast of the outer most barrier islands of Brevard County southward. Tuesday will be very cool to cold all day, hardly working through the mid-50Fs except toward South Central Florida and further yet south. Becoming very cool to cold again as the sun begins to set due to the dry nature of the air mass as winds decrease with the setting sun.


WEDNESDAY: Much like Tuesday with a cold start. Frost might become an agricultural issue inland areas along the NW side of Lake Okeechobee northward across the breadth of the state except along the coasts south of Titusville. This might very well be the coldest day yet, with temperatures at or just a few degrees cooler than the previous morning.


THURSDAY: Another cool morning, but the full impact of this cold air surge will begin to be released up and away, hence, a slow warming trend. By the weekend, it looks quite nice with seasonal temperatures not too far off from recent days. There is no rain being portrayed into the second week of January. Too soon to say, naturally, if that will be the case; but, given the current set up and lessons learned from previous years, it seems that at least this  pre-conceived notion would warrant some merit.


I Hope Your Past Year was Everything You Had Hoped It Would Be and More. And if not, We Can Hope that This Coming Year Will Certainly Be At Least Better if Not Much More That That. Happy 2012 

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Much Cooler Air Is Approaching Today - Adjustments

  Blue is in general the current location of a cold front moving down the state. In yellow  is an estimate of  where this frontal boundary will be located within an hour or so after sunset.  The front will then continue through the remainder of the state past midnight 

TODAY: Last day of temperatures in the solid 70Fs for a few days for the most part for North and North Central Florida, with a dividing 70F isotherm for highs to set up across South Central Florida in the days ahead, cooler north of that line. Highs south of that line will remain in the lower-mid 70Fs (mainly along and south of a line from West Palm Beach toward Sarasota, or so).


Cold front moving in with a pretty big pattern change for Florida in regard to the temperatures. The day time highs in the upper 70Fs and lower 80Fs which have been above normal will be cooling to at and just below normal, mainly for the afternoons...for a few days. As can be seen with the image above, the boundary proper between the surface to elevations a few thousand feet above the ground is fairly broad, with clouds moving into Central prior to the actual front proper.


 There are some showers and sprinkles with the front, possibly some gustier winds due to the strong winds aloft associated with the supporting upper level features (troughs) aloft. Other than than, overall atmospheric moisture is really not all so impressive. If it were summer, we would not be looking for rain chances at all today. But it is not summer, is it? Highs today for Central and especially south can get in to the lower 80Fs, but mid-upper 70Fs will be most prevalent in areas not over-ridden by clouds prior to 1PM today.


SW winds will shift to west within the boundary, and become WNW-NW after passage. Atmospheric moisture will slowly dwindle (or dry out) with time, and combined with the cold air influx associated with the front itself, we will be having to contend with an attitude and clothing adjustment, especially during the hours before noon time or around 11AM in coming days. 


Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs Central/North Central, and yet cooler still North Florida, except closer to 50F from Cape Canaveral and South toward the immediate coast along and mainly east of US1. Winds not too terribly strong, but it will be cooler on Wednesday through Saturday morning closely reaching the same temperature regime until that time as winds weaken and slowly become more NE-E on Saturday and Sunday. At which point, there is a warming trend.


Outside of this front today, there is yet another to swing through in perhaps another 48--60 hours which will mostly pass through un-noticed other than to prevent what would otherwise be a warming trend. Thus, the longer duration of cooler air. In fact, in the longer range, there is yet another front showing face per the overnight run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) model output.; that too, looks to go through dry. 


Winter is here now for sure with temperatures just below normal , then rising toward near normal, then falling again by later toward late week. So far though, no extremes varying vastly from climactic norms are foreseen. No frost or freezes in the cards. Just a minor attitude adjustment and an opportunity to wear some of the clothes that have been hanging in the back trenches of the closet which have not been needed for much of the season so far. New Years is not posing a problem as of the recent run other than good weather for wearing festive apparel.

Let All Good Tidings Tell, It Will Not Be Cold (yet)

TODAY-CHRISTMAS: Bustling few days ahead on the ground, but aloft a mere weakening cold front will be shifting south and east through today into Central this afternoon and tonight. Very little change in temperatures behind the front, only small cooling. 


South of the front today it will be warm with a SW breeze and highs possibly into the lower 80Fs except down wind of any cooler body of water. Partly cloudy sky except the Panhandle and portions of North Central toward Central late in the day as the front closes in where clouds will be of greater concentration. Very little to no rain with this boundary heading into Central Florida areas.


CHRISTMAS: More clouds expected with the front in the area. Winds will shift to the N-NE-ENE overnight and into tomorrow (Christmas Eve) for the "The Day of Days", but temperatures again will have little shifting influence to the feel...cooler though than those of today. Sprinkles are possible Central or South Central heading toward daybreak and through the day, but not an all day chance if, in fact, there it to be any at all. All in all, it will be a Peace On Earth day as far as the peninsula is considered in the realm of weather.


BEYOND: Still no raging cold air on the way is being depicted by the GFS model. It is getting toward those days of coldest, January. Time will tell, not the models at this point.

Truth or Consequences": In Weather It's Neither Nor

Colorized Schematic of Surface Temperatures Depicted Above with Orange toward Red being the warmest. In the next few days this will continue to be the case, that being, warmest overnight through mid-morning along the east coast from the Cape and South as SE-SSE winds continue. Afternoons warm all areas. Christmas Eve Day may yet be the warmest day of all with highs in the lower 80Fs in many areas 

TODAY:  Air Mass Modification in full swing since yesterday continues with winds having become more southeasterly as opposed to northerly on Sunday, modification in the sense that moisture in the lower levels is increasing and temperatures are becoming more comfortable (warmer if you like). This trend will continue through Christmas Eve day as noted yesterday. A cold front will approach from the Deep South region but never really be able to penetrate the bulbous region of high pressure located closely to that of a normal summer time regime, affectionately referred to as The Bermuda High which was amazingly more often than not absent during the summer months. In turn, cold winter like weather remains out of the equation for the time being, with temperatures running at to above normal through Christmas Eve Day, and potentially beyond.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY : The primary cold front is still being depicted to slide off and away from most of the state (to the north) , thanks to the high pressure zone across the state. Winds remain much like that of those today and tomorrow, with the air becoming warmer incrementally during this time frame. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how close one is located to and downwind of the cooler Atlantic Waters and larger inland lakes - cooling of the waters occurs with the lower height/sun angle with the formal approach to Winter now on December 22 at 12:30AM (Thursday morning just after Midnight).


With continued SE-SSE low level wind flow, moisture will increase enough for the possibility of light showers near the coast around late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly further inland across South Florida with the ever present stratocumulus clouds possible, especially late morning through early evening. 


CHRISTMAS EVE/SATURDAY: Winds will slowly be veering from SSE (south south east) toward the SSW-SW on Saturday as the next cold front approaches (and high pressure starts to move out of the picture). This could result in a cooler morning east coast, but much warmer all areas by afternoon contingent upon the amount of cloud coverage over any specific area. 


CHRISTMAS DAY: Cold front/cool front still forecast to be stretched across Central to South Central during the day as the front undergoes frontalysis (washes out). This could place Central to South Florida (somewhere in there) in a position for rainshowers and just maybe some thunder. It does not look as much likely for thunder though as the model run (of the GFS) had portrayed yesterday. The ECMWF (European Model) had a fairly good rationalization yesterday, and the two models seem to be coming to some sort of agreement that this front will not have a significant impact to our temperatures, only slightly noticeable.


Best chance for rainfall now appears to be overnight Christmas Eve and through the day after Christmas, although if the trend continues...combined with a basis of past fronts so far this season..that chance could easily end up decreasing...but not completely.


BEYOND: Although we might experience some mid-upper 40Fs interior and the north half of the state before the end of 2011, the GFS has had a habit of overforecasting low temperatures in the extended (making them too cold), so not ready to ride with that one yet..it is just to hard to believe how fortunate the warm weather lovers have been so far since climatological winter began on December 1.  But, we have not reached Mid-January through Early February, the real indicator. Tables can turn quickly.


In the long range, the Truth is yet to be known (is it ever?), the Consequence as far as weather is concerned  will be based on the Truth, and the affects on us will be how well we take responsibility to be prepared for the Circumstances.  By watching the models, the sky, and sometimes nature we can see the signs of things to come and which way to head.

"Sometimes the correct fork depends on the Circumstances, but I do like the arrow pointing up toward Blue Sky" 

Very Warm With Possible Storms on Christmas Day?!

Morning Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Forecast for the surface at 7pm this evening shown above. Indications are 'on' for possible severe (orange) weather primarily in Central and SE Texas, with a broader expanse of thunderstorms as well (yellow roughly speaking). Florida's weather is being dictated by high pressure ENE of the state at the surface which will move a bit further east during the week.

TODAY- THURSDAY: Weather for most of the state between the remainder of today remains pleasantly benign albeit a bit breezy at times during the afternoon, especially near the coast and open larger inland lakes. Partly cloudy sky, no showers with highs ranging through the 70Fs. There is a small chance of enhanced cloudier periods toward the East Coast, with a possible spittle of drizzle or rain here or there from time to time by late Wednesday, but most likely could have foregone mention. East to ESE winds today gradually curve (veer) toward the ESE-SE then SSE by Thursday. Warmer around the 24 hours beginning overnight tonight when evening lows will not fall as low as previous days, especially along the east coast South of I-4. The trend continues statewide through Thursday, most warmly noticeable beginning Wednesday. Numbers on the temperatures really not necessary, whatever you've felt where ever you are located recently other than yesterday, will be similar to those.


The first official astronomical day of Winter will be on the 22nd of the month this year, or Thursday, technically as the clock reads. It is always somewhere within the 21st-22nd time frame. 

FRIDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY (SUNDAY): The low pressure area shown in today's graphic will be moving toward the NE as indicated. The trailing cold front in model runs of the GFS is showing less and less of a likelihood of ever impacting the state other than possibly the panhandle area with a rain chance. Otherwise, the remainder of the state remains fairly quiet with temperatures approaching above normal once again, the ongoing theme so far this season (and year as well). However, as the parent low moves NE ward toward New England, another system could form along it's tailing flank in the Deep South. It is that second system late in the week and into the weekend that will require closer scrutiny for potential  future 'impacts' statewide.


 Ironically, two of the first full days of full fledged "winter" could be close to the warmest we've experienced in some time, with highs reaching toward the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, especially on Christmas Eve Day (Saturday). There is also a chance of showers and just possibly some thunder across Central or South Central Portions mid-late afternoon Saturday and into the evening. It is too early to say with any level of certainty given the number of days remaining until then. The situation does bear watching if for no other reason than well, let's face it, there has been nothing worth noting over the peninsula in quite some time other than a few periods of rain  showers and  flat topped stratocumulus clouds.     


The morning GFS run indicates the front to cross the state only slowly all through Christmas Day with possible thunderstorms, but for now will ride with rain-showers..with good coverage. This is all a new prognosis from the model though, so again, a few more model runs to go to gain greater certainty regarding Christmas. ..and will add the day after as well if this morning's run were to verify as truth.


BEYOND: Much cooler 'whenever' the front can go through. But again, this is a new evolution since previous days..and could easily shift back to 'benign weather' mode by this time tomorrow. Chances are this first system now in development in the Southern Plains region today is throwing a wrench into the equations. Thus low confidence outlook from Thursday and beyond.

Florida Cold Front Today (..and... For Christmas?)

"Here's Comes Da Front" - Light winds and good sunshine Central. This image from late morning shows clearly where the clouds exist, with Central in the 'clear' until mid-afternoon as front pulls into 'station' from the north and west. Some sprinkles
are possible with the boundary, as well as toward SE Florida, especially overnight toward Sunday morning SE Coast. Minimal Temperature impacts, mainly along and north of I-4.

TODAY: A very weak cold front is crossing the state today, but frankly other than the clouds as shown above, it is a bit difficult to discern on model guidance. The best tool was analysis of the mid-level wind fields and their forecast parameters combined with low level moisture content in the atmosphere. With those in mind, the drier low level/surface air will be moving through and down the state today through early Sunday, with the drier air moving into Dead Central toward Midnight with drier, and thus cooler air to follow through sunrise.


Otherwise, we could likely expect to see increasing clouds Central by mid-late afternoon into sunset, with more coverage all day South Central to South Florida. North Florida is already in the boundary and the clouds, which are already clearing in some areas, panhandle. More clouds again possible there though too, until after dark.


SUNDAY: NNW-NW winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon, scattered clouds by afternoon with highs maybe 2-5 degrees cooler than recent days. Morning lows also 2-4 degrees cooler immediate east coast south of I-4, with the coolest change to occur over the NW Quadrant of the state, including areas such as Ocala, Brooksville, NW of Orlando (as well as Orlando) and west toward Tampa, falling by 5-10 degrees more. 


Why is the front not going to make things all 'Christmas Cold' like? Recall, last year at this time it had already fallen below freezing along the beaches even.

Water Froze Over in Bird Bath 12/14/2010 in Cape Canaveral

Forecast position of front around 2000 ft above ground tonight. Note that the north winds are circulating low level air from South Texas northward then back south to Florida. This, as opposed to what a true 'Winter Blast" would have origins from, shown with the "X'd out Blue area indicating a north wind and jet stream from the Arctic Regions. Big Difference!

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will veer from NW-NNW on Sunday toward the NNE-NE on Monday and eventually E-ESE byThursday. In light of that factor, wind will again be coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean waters instead of off the Polar Ice Cap. I don't see any Ice Bergs or Polar Bears floating offshore this morning, but did see some folks walking barefoot in the sand. In short, return to more of the same with the probable and seasonal afternoon and evening stratocumulus cloud decks re-emerging and moving slowly across and/ or forming over the state.


CHRISTMAS PRELIMINARY FORECAST: Wow, last I saw from the late night GFS (Global Forecast System model) run yesterday, the next bona fide cold front to move in will be on Christmas Eve. This was a relatively 'new' concept to the model...previous runs of the same model had been holding off on the colder air (possible 40Fs wide spread), so not quite ready to prepare the Yule Logs just yet. However, if one is hoping for the extra cold bite to the Christmas morning air, it just might be on tap. Either way, it is to last (per that model run) but 48 hours tops before the next front, New Year's Eve.