Chance of Isolated Strong Storms Near the East Coast , Warm and Breezy

As noted above with quite a few conditional caveats

TODAY: Dewpoints in the 70Fs !! Zephyr Hills last hour had a dewpoint of 77F degrees with other readings ranging mainly from 70-74F along and south of mainly I -4 and north along the east coast. Compared this to winter dew points  ranging in the 20Fs-40Fs most often.  SSW-S winds could become breezy into mid-afternoon, more so than currently near open waters. The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) right now is the highest we've seen in months since last year approaching 3000-3800 J2/kg2 per SPC surface mesoscale RAP formulae (in winter it is less than 500) with lifted index around -7 to -9C (in winter it might be -1 or -2C), and low level moisture continues to stream north from the SSW; however, there is quite a mid level dry slot in place as well over all but SE Florida  and the panhandle area last hour. That, accompanied by cloud cover from storms well out in the Gulf could shut off the caboose on the storm train today except from near Ft. Pierce and south, but last hours satellite loop does not indicate any thickening will occur, if anything, the clouds appear to be thinning or at least trying to. Additionally, temperatures although very cold now are shown to warm later in the day which would offset the mid level lapse rates currently in place. Still, mid-level dry air accompanied by down draft Cape with little convergence boundaries might make it difficult for storm to initiate without a good trigger.

Thus, this post is a worst case scenario, but things might not materialize hardly if at all except toward SE Florida.  The strongest storms though should be those that are on the move to get off shore the East Coast, Mainly near or just north of the Cape area and south, especially near any NE slated Lake Shadow near or just south of Vero Beach to Ft. Pierce, and then on the other side of the shadow effect near West Palm Beach and south toward Ft Lauderdale . Should said storms develop, especially after 4pm -5 pm, gusts to 50mph are possible and pea hail momentarily. The conditional caveat, of many, is that guidance indicates instability will decrease after 2-3pm as winds remain from the SSW-SW without a sea breeze element for low level convergence playing into the mixture. However, areas near Brevard might start playing with a parallel-side shore element to those winds which could make things a bit more interesting as any storm might develop. It could be that strongest activity would not manifest, if it does,until off-shore. Guidance suggests the further inland activity though will be from Ft. Pierce and South.
Again, as it stands now, this is the worse case scenario. It is possible there will be very little activity, especially Central FLorida.l

TOMORROW: A frontal boundary from the NW will lay out across Central Florida near the 528 Beachway or just south of there toward Vero Beach during the day and then begin to lift back north toward I-10 over night into Sunday.  This boundary could act as a focal point for showers and some thunder anytime almost after noon time on Saturday through Sunset, or simply instigate a lot of  bugger cloud cover. Continued warm, tempered down by clouds. Also, quite muggy once again almost like summer, but not quite that muggy.

SUNDAY/BEYOND: Thunder looks to be in the equation, especially for parts of Central and North closer to the boundary which will remain north. On a course of uncertain time, likely by Wednesday, the moisture surge will end and things will dry out. Most activity should be a bit inland west of I-95 though except perhaps one of those days and be fairly isolated except during the 5-8pm time frame in a few areas north of Orlando and SW toward south Tampa Bay or Sarasota area where west coast sea breeze activity could rumble along.

Otherwise, warm weather and more moist for the most part is in the picture into or near the last week of April. Looks like we can tuck the muck- (bad) lucks  away and winter scarves and hoodies. Summer isn't far away now.

SIDE NOTE: The hottest potential time of the year is from mid-May to the first 10 days of June. During this time is when it is most likely, if it's going to, that Florida sees its upper 90F to lower 100Fs readings, which means one month from now or so. This never happened last year but did the previous two years. 1997 and 1998 were also a big years for the heat. 

Threat Thursday - Strong Severe Storm Risk Involved

Complicated Looking Graphic Explained Below

CURRENT: As of 7:30AM a developing warm front is lifting north across Central Florida. This boundary is expected to lift into extreme South Georgia by  the mid-afternoon hours. Otherwise, increase multi-layered bulk shear down to the lowest atmospheric levels is not expected to be in place across South and Central Florida (specifically) until tonight. Cold temperatures aloft are a 'go' as is the forecast Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) around 1700 J2/Kg2 (which is not overly impressive at all) coupled with helical spiraling wind flow streamers (helicity) in the surface to the 3KM levels to be in place by noontime spreading west to east across the state. Moisture is a non-issue, especially along the warm front today and along a pref-frontal trough tonight. Low level helicity could be magnified along the entire east coast.

OVERALL OUTLOOK: Refer mainly to the region bound by the DARK blue lines and the white squares for daylight hours. This is mainly the north half of the state.  Skies should clear some by late morning as one of (at least) two impulses approaches the west coast. By virtue of the warm frontal boundary alone, there is the potential for rotating thunderstorm / supercells near this boundary as it lifts toward JAX. Elsewhere south of this boundary, all of the guidance indicates at least a somewhat 'side shore - up the coast' low level surface wind component to come into place as daytime heating commences prior to approach of the first major impulse from the west. Therefore, per this post, I'd consider those white squares to be MDT RISK areas (moderate) as opposed to the SLIGHT RISK area the entire state is currently under and bound by the purple lines.

            High Speed Dirt's 

             "Sky Sanctums" Makes No Claims  

“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

Note, there are TWO squares along the east side. One is for daylight hours, the latter for late overnight to very early Friday morning (the southern one). Also note Brevard County/Indian River/ S. Volusia in general fall in both regions for both daylight and overnight.

In General, some discussions I've read are stating it is the GFS model all along that seems to have the best grasp on today's overall situation as best can be determined this early in the day.

DAYLIGHT: Warm front lifts north and convective instability (CAPE) increases. Wind profiles would support some rotating storms along miso-scale boundaries amid meso-scale parameters     (namely, the warm front), the secondary miso/meso boundary being along any sea breeze that might happen to form. These 'could' be enhanced up river ways as storms move from West to East. Thus..special attention to the regions along and east of I-95 for RAPID CHANGES in storm structures as they penetrate the sea breeze at the lowest atmospheric levels. Note that this is not to count out regions further south during daylight nor anywhere inland.

TONIGHT: Here is the shift of another sort. By night instability decreases but upper level divergence as the South Half of the state mainly falls increasingly under the left exit region of the upper level 120 kt, 250mb jet stream as it lifts out in side- swiping  fashion. The down player for rotation though at this point is winds start to become more unidirectional with height at lower levels. 

Again though, any activity that might be strong and move offshore could result in outflow back to the coast as they move offshore (in theory only) once again magnifying locally low level helicals (helicity values). Tilted horizontal corkscrewing winds pulled up vertically by upper level divergence could again tilt those spiral into the vertical result in rotating updrafts within embedded thunderstorm structures with little notice.

Current as of blog post with highlighted areas to watch. Again,
along the east coast 'could' in my mind be considered a MDT RISK
area  if the side shore wind and/or sea breeze develops along the east coast

In Summary, best be advised to take responsibility and accountability to monitor Local Television Networks in order to remain abreast of this ongoing and actually yet to actually develop potential weather situation. As always, tornadoes can develop with little or no warning (a tried but true reality).

THREATS: Do note that the SPC is a bit of at the mercy of whatever will or will not occur today and tonight  more so than usual as opposed to larger scale potential severe weather events that normally occur in the more tornado prone areas. This is not usual for Florida. There are times when a threat is in place and not much of anything happens. That is why it is called a Slight RISK area. There is a RISK. In a Moderate RISK, the risk appears to be higher under conditional situations like this one. In short, today's weather situation is highly conditional although looks at the same time fairly certain that somebody somewhere will get socked with a nasty storm, if not more than one over the same location.  If the situation develops as expected a tornado watch or more than one could be issued during the course of events for the more certain areas. And, if storms develop that are within those watch areas, warnings would be issued for specific storms.

Threats include quick spin up tornadoes, perhaps a bone-fide few  from longer tracking (lasting) rotating thunderstorms (supercells), wind gusts to 80mph, and golf ball sized hail (although it has been my personal observation that hail larger than peas does not occur too often in such set ups over Florida).

The risk quickly ends from north to south tonight and over night with North Central in the clear just after sunrise and working south with time. 

BEYOND: Pleasant weather with a chance of rain re-emerging perhaps around Thursday or Wednesday. The GFS is hinting at a QLCS Squall line in about just over a week from now already.  

Severe Threat Thursday - Isolated "Strong" Possible Today

Extra-Generous on the 'Strong" Storm Chance today
But Conditions Warrant a Whisper in the Ear

TODAY: There is forecast to be sufficient instability today propagating from South Florida and just offshore toward East Central Florida later today. Lack of greater coverage though is problematic as well as how much instability there will be,  but this could be offset by cold air aloft and gradually increasing mid-upper level wind profiles with some turning as well which in and off itself promotes upward storm growth in the presence of slightly diverging wind fields well aloft. There are hints of 3-5 storms between the Brevard County zone just inland toward St. Augustine but high clouds further north might negate that potential. Storms or rain showers could continue until after dark ending after 8 or 9pm. Most areas will not experience much if anything today.

THURSDAY: Not much of a change from the previous post, at least as POSTulated. Guidance per the NWS continues to indicate a disparity in timing but that models are coming closer together in regarding to timing, and it is likely this will continue to manifest with subsequent model runs. As is often the case, the reality of the situation will be revealed as the actual situation(s) unfold Real Time, considering that often interactions occur which tend to blur the lines of science with reality. 

NOTE: This outlook extends further South than OFFICIAL OUTLETS
are announcing as of the time of this post

After a break from any potential activity that may or might occur this afternoon, the meat of the matter starts to go through the grinder in the Gulf to approach the state very early Thursday across the Panhandle and then spreads south and east during the day from mid-late morning through the over night hours. The potential chance of strong downburst winds embedded in line echoes and miso-scale rotation in liner like storms on radar coupled with greater mesoscale rotations both discrete and embedded within arcing segments  might result in a Tornado Watch Issuance to the North and then be extended toward most if not all of Central Florida contingent upon how the stage is set and the play acts out. This is noted by the overall chance of that chance within the purple bounds above.

**NOTE: It is HIGHLY recommended that if the situation does indeed develop to any degree resembling said discussion, that access to continuous live radar as opposed to the Weather Channel be partaken with. Some news Channels will likely be on continuous coverage if the situation manifests to a degree that it will be warranted.

FRIDAY: Activity 'might' develop into a more bona-fide QLCS squall line for a time across parts of Central or South Central and press on South and weaken as upper level support pulls off to the East and NE by or before sunrise to early afternoon before reaching far south Florida. Too soon to say for sure IF and when when this will occur, and if so how far such a squall line will extend South as at time such situations create their own environment not foreseen by model guidance.

BEYOND: Mainly dry with only a day or two of mildly cooler temperatures but still well above our last cold spell. Another Severe Weather Chance might manifest once again in about a week from Friday.  

Thunder Possible Wednesday, Potentially Strongly Severe Storms in Two Waves Thursday ?!

Preliminary Outlook (for blogging purposes/not official) For Wednesday
Orange shows thunder chances. Given the cold air aloft, we MIGHT be in for some surprises on Wednesday due to some hail

TODAY: Quite pleasant. What we see is what we got. Winds eventually becoming more SE today with highs in the lower 80Fs inland, with a few mid-80Fs ,upper 70Fs more likely right at the beaches.

WEDNESDAY (Image above): Low pressure will be forming along the Northern Gulf Coast near Louisiana. Meanwhile winds SE at the surface but quickly shifting to West in the mid-upper levels. Upper level temperatures are very cold tomorrow, but lack of deep moisture and low level instability could limit storms to the interior whereas showers could end up moving offshore in at least an expanse shown above if not further south. Thunder could roll off shore the east coast from the Canaveral area and north as well, but it seems more certain along convergence boundaries inland.


THURSDAY: Interesting scenario continues to unfold per consecutive GFS model runs. Forecast discussions which address the ECMWF model of which I have no detailed access to are addressing timing differences and issues which could make a world of difference in the forecast in regard to storm intensity; thus, the precursor comment to not go unsaid is that this blog post is based on the GFS model trends over the past 2 1/2 days, which measa generally nearly 9 model runs.

There is a chance that mid-afternoon storms could form and move in along the west coast from Tampa and north, mainly along and north of I-4. Wind fields above the ground will be becoming stronger with increased helicities values as time goes by and upper level support moves in toward and after dark. 

Nevertheless, air aloft unusually cold with curving wind profiles and increasing shear could result in some surprisingly strong to severe storms later Wednesday afternoon mainly along and north of I-4 with an isolated one or two yet further south. Such said storms will have no problem moving right along and not die off quickly as would be in the case in the summer.

Otherwise, greater 'wind energy' moves in after 10pm for a possible second surge of activity. Now, it is possible this will end up being an Event Before the Event situation, where the stronger storms end up being earlier, but so far given the winds this does not appear all too likely. If the latter event (if there is two or even one, at all)..there could be a tornado watch issued across the peninsula as deemed necessary as more and more recent forecast information becomes available. So far, there has been consistency of which most highlights in my mind at least an area spanning from near to just north of the Central Dividing line and north for a tornado threat, possibly coming out of storms in the form of broken bow echoes and rotating isolated activity early on.

Later Thursday evening a QLCS Squall Line which is pretty much a fancy acronym for a broken squall line containing some discrete storm cells, could start to form, but again much of this is entirely speculative and likely over-amped on the blog posters part. Instability is lacking, making this a chance for a high shear -  low CAPE set up which is difficult one to forecast with as much certainty would there be more instability at play.

Bulk shear is showing up at the lowest levels (unusual for Florida clear up to 20,000 feet at least) accompanied by very respectable upward vertical velocities regardless of the lack of CAPE and low level instability.

Do note, that the Storm Prediction Center is saying very very little about Thursday at this point, so chances are this will be a pre-emptive Strike Out in the forecast game. For now, the pitch hitter is at bat until it is more clear as to how the cards may fall and who's on base.

BEYOND: Rain chances end from NW to SE Friday ending Dead Central by noon but likely sooner and South Florida by mid-late afternoon. Stronger Storms possible mainly South Florida on Friday from late morning through mid-afternoon. After Friday, a drying trend sets in with slightly cooler temperatures but nothing unusual returning to the normal range in the matter of a day or two. 

Time for Shorts and Possibly Severe Weather Late Thursday Evening

Sunrise Service Observers Easter Morning in Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Sunny, pleasant, and mostly clear. Joyfully Beautified Easter To you!

MONDAY: Slight chance of late afternoon and early evening showers, possibly will need to introduce some thunder in a few areas along and east of I-95 along any sea breeze convergence boundaries after 4 or 5PM up and down the east coast as a front glides down the coast which will have only a minor impact on the temperatures.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Initially northerly winds on Tuesday will swing to the east to east-southeast by nightfall and become more southeast on Wednesday . Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near beaches but coolest along A1A to the dunes where ocean temperature effects of cool water will be ongoing into late April when an onshore wind prevails.

THURSDAY: Model guidance has been consistent for a least a rainy or stormy period sometime late day Thursday and more so over night toward the 10PM -3AM time frame. Although instability is not ample alone for strong storms, vertical velocities are nuts 'high' on the GFS model,  regardless,  with good mid-level lapse rates from cold air aloft and turning wind profiles could result in at least a severe thunderstorm if not tornado watch late Thursday. Much to watch for in this regard , but for now, a heads up. Either way, rain chances look quite good up to this point in time spreading across the state beginning early afternoon from the west and north and into Central Florida near or after sunset .

FRIDAY: Chance of rain continues from Central and South through at least noon time but quickly dwindles to zero as north winds set in. This time period will need even more fine tuning than the Thursday outlook to see exactly how long and where rain will linger. Good news is, there is almost no cold air behind this front. Hopefully for  "the warm air preferred"  this non-event temperature wise frontal boundary will set the trend. It will soon to be too late for much of a potent cold air mass to impact the area. The last cold spell was a good 10-20 degrees below normal with record lows set in many locations, sometimes consecutive mornings in a row.

BEYOND: Little chance of rain with a quick warm up to near normal temperatures and dry toward all off the following week.

"And he bent down..and scribbled something in the dirt..."

Record Low Highs and Low Lows to Slowly Warm through Easter

Temperature Spread Depiction Before Sunrise This Wednesday Morning
During the Full Moon at 5:27 AM on this March 27th

TODAY: Record lows this morning, a record low high at Vero yesterday. Winds much lighter today though so more pleasant. Another cold morning on tap for Thursday morning  with more record lows possible. Melbourne got down to 39F while the porch rested at 45F. Some patchy frost is possible Thursday morning before sunrise, especially from near Ocala and Northern Lake County up the northern spine of the state in lower lying areas as skies remain clear.

THURSDAY: As noted above in the morning, with a notable warming trend commencing by mid-late morning with highs mainly in the 60Fs. Temperatures still below normal though from 10F -20F degrees. Light NNW-N wind might become slightly onshore right at the beaches by mid-afternoon.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Winds continuing to become NE-E to eventually SE-SSE as noted on the previous post for Easter. Morning lows from the Cape South notably warmer overnight Friday and through the weekend barely getting below 60F Saturday morning, but much cooler away from the beaches. Easter is the warmest day on tap until Monday when we could get above normal readings.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance is finicky about what will happen with the next front, considering how far out in time this is as of today, that is not at all unusual. Although there could be a shot of showers or even thunder South Florida on Monday (interior), suspect further north on one or both days (that is Sunday/Monday) the east coast could see a late day cloud deck as a result of late day sea-breeze convergence, but rain chances look overall minimal or light at that.

BEYOND: So far, that next front goes through nearly unnoticed except for a cloud deck, but there are signs it could lay the foundation for a surface low to form near the Loop Current in the Gulf. If so, there would be a chance of severe weather in the forecast late next week around April 4th  or 5th. Still too far off to say with any degree of certainty. Otherwise, normal temperatures and pleasant until then beginning Easter Day.

Return to near Winter-Like Temperatures This Week

Prefrontal Trough (dashed black line) is moving east and south this afternoon. The parent cold front in blue lags 12-18 hours behind this boundary and will cross North Central to Central Florida over night

TODAY: Breezy SW-WSW winds 15-25mph with stronger gusts ahead of pre-frontal trough and parent cold front.  Although there is a chance of strong storms with this boundary as it moves down the state this afternoon, at this time it appears that sufficient moisture to support said activity will be drawn off the to northeast around the low centered over South Carolina, so chances look pretty slim except along the west coast as far south as Tampa Bay. This is not a guaranteed certainty, but radar trends support this line of thinking, at least so far. Otherwise, breezy and warm. Winds could be quite gusty in and near rain or thunder which is expected to enter the Beach Line area around 3pm or so. Now, whether any rain will be associated with the boundary is sketchy at best. 

MONDAY: The actual cold front is expected to reach the area around I-4 sometime around 4AM and cross Dead Central within an hour before or after sunrise. Winds becoming WNW as much drier air filters down the state, but still not too cool outside until the sun starts to set and the cold air advection becomes more realized Monday evening.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING: Quite cool to cold, especially along and west of I-95 in the morning hours through mid-morning. Frost might enter the forecast from Orlando and North by Thursday and Friday mornings as winds calm down sufficiently. Lows right at the coast in the mid-upper 40Fs and highs in the low-mid 60Fs. The coolest overall day appears will be Wednesday with Thursday not far behind in the morning hours at least.

NEXT WEEKEND (EASTER): Gradual warming trend most notable begins Saturday, and even warmer on Easter Sunday with sunny skies and light winds after Wednesday from the ENE to East, becoming Southeast by Easter. It also looks so far that it could be a while before rain enters the forecast again with several more warm days ahead from Easter into the first 5 days of April.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Saturday and Sunday

FRIDAY NOON: It appears a warm front is starting to form across Central Florida as of early afternoon. This boundary will lift north later today through tonight to the Florida/Georgia Border. Chances of isolated showers and maybe some thunder across the Southern 1/3 of Florida although cloud cover will likely result in only showers for the most part

TODAY: Several changes taking place today through Sunday Night. A warm front is forming across Central Florida which will lift north later today and tonight. The better moisture mostly coming in from the west and south will most affect the Southern 1/3 of the state. Meanwhile a low pressure area is forming toward East Texas. That system will drag a cold front across Central Florida Late Sunday.

In the meantime, easterly winds will become more Southeast with time and south to SW by Saturday. Possible fog over night in some areas or light rain as the warm front lifts north.

SATURDAY: A weak low will form along the warm front which will be into South Georgia by noon time. That low could start to move toward the east and result with daytime heating in a pseudo pre-frontal trough which would act as a mechanism of convergence down at least the northern 1./3 of the state. Greater instability anticipated across North Central, while wind fields could set up for the potential of severe weather north of I-4 and much more possible along the I-10 especially at and west of Tallahassee, although the area from Gainesville toward JAX might need to bear this closely in mind.

SATURDAY AFTER 2PM: Daytime heating and some of the best instability we've seen across Florida for many months now combined with better moisture fields and shearing winds both directionally and with speed, although not truly significant but combined with very cold air aloft could result in some isolated stronger storms across a part of Central Florida, but more likely near and north of I-4. This is noted near and north of the orange line in the image below. 

SUNDAY has been the better day as it appears for Severe weather , but there is a chance that for Central it will occur on "the day before the day". Wouldn't be the first time so does bear watching in the next two to three model runs and then in short term model runs and analysis as Saturday evolves to see if perhaps Saturday doesn't throw a few surprise curve balls. Cloud cover could shoot down the potential quite easily. The image below shows this area and another for Sunday.

Severe Chances best this weekend north of the red line with a  secondary area on Saturday north of the orange line. On Sunday the better areas to watch are between the purple lines. Further south, this part of Florida will not likely see the best extent of wind fields nor instability as the line of activity will enter this region for the most part well after peak heating (assuming there is not already cloud cover)

PALM SUNDAY: Another shot of rain storms , thunder some strong over North Central and parts of Dead Central if not South Central as well though not shown in the image above. Noting that the NAM model is quite sparse on precipitation for the most part the entire weekend, so this could all equate to a Bust-cast Fail mode Flop-ation Surmise-orama based on the GFS, but based on discussions from official outlets who have better access to a detailed ECMWF (European) model, a play on the push-for-rain seems to be the best option at this point. Winds SW/breezy and warm especially south of I-4 with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs assuming cloud coverage is not too extensive.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Much cooler with near cold mornings where frost might end up being possible from Lake County and north, but the immediate east coast as usual from the Cape and South along A1A to the Keys will escape the worst of the worst of it. Some very cool afternoons will return as well with highs in the 60Fs on Monday and Tuesday (if not Wednesday as well). 

EASTER OUTLOOK: So far, it looks to be quite warm on Easter with another system perfectly timed to be on the approach. SW winds and warm.

Dry and Cooler on Thursday, Then More Dry Upon Dry

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY shows a secondary front to cross Florida into tonight. Also shown, high pressure to build into the norhtern
 Gulf then cross Florida Friday into Saturday evening

TODAY/TONIGHT: Satellite imagery early afternoon clearly shows the cold front of yesterday well south of Florida. High atmospheric level cirrus clouds streaming mainly across the Southern 1/3 of the state with some very very thin cirrus to approach Central later today which could go un-noticed entirely. Otherwise, a secondary boundary is to cross the state later today (shown above) from the north with no effect other than to re-enforce the dry and cooler air mass tonight through Thursday. Cooler inland tonight with lows through the 40Fs but possibly remaining in the lower 50Fs from Canaveral and South mainly along the A1A strip. NNW wind breezes today but decreasing toward and after sunset.

THURSDAY: Overall the coolest day with lows noted as above and highs mainly in the lower 60Fs with inland mid-60Fs possible with a more northerly wind.

FRIDAY: Statewide the coolest morning, but also a notable warm up in the afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs and sunny with a WNW wind. The High Pressure area seen above will have dropped into the Northern Gulf and will be crossing Florida Friday Night into Satruday and will be will off shore of Florida to the east south east on Sunday. 

WEEKEND: Highs in the mid 70Fs to some lower 80Fs. Winds westerly, but with such a light vectorial component (strength- vectors are measured by both direction and magnitude) it is possible an afternoon sea breeze will develop causing temperatures especially east of US1 and then more-so toward A1A to remain in the lower 70Fs, before reaching the 'maybe mid 70Fs' before the sea breeze sets in (if it does). If it does not, highs could reach the upper 70Fs statewide, to lower 80Fs west of US1.

NEXT WEEK: Next front still appears will go through DRY late Tuesday after which more high pressure originating from a more northerly component rather than from the west drops south resulting in a more easterly, onshore flow...eventually becoming more SE - S by the yet next weekend of Palm Sunday. Thus, continued dry and consistently warmer across the boards beginning late next week for a good 5 days to follow.

The next potentially more significant change in this dry pattern is not showing its face even in the distant crystal ball future until sometime around the 23rd to the 28th of March time frame. Up until that time, cool mornings with below normal temperatures will return to normal then above normal by this weekend then return back to normal again as a result of the easterly flow coming off cool ocean shelf waters after the front of next week. All this is a far cry from the Storm of the Century which had crossed Florida as of last night 20 years ago to the date. 

 

Increasing Clouds Today, Showery Tuesday, Cooler

Filtered sunlight today with a chance of increasing high clouds toward late afternoon into the evening. As a result. warmer this evening the previous evenings especially near the coast.

TODAY: Increasing high clouds possible especially from Central Florida and North after 3:30PM with filtered sunlight. Warmest afternoon high temperatures west of I-95 approaching the 80F mark. Coolest from Volusia County and north with coastal highs in the mid to upper 70Fs in generalm especially from Vero and south. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60Fs, with some 50Fs well inland.

TUESDAY: Cold front will enter North Central by early afternoon with a weak prefrontal trough over and near Central Florida by mid-late morning. Cloudy with light showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder along the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key pressing toward Tampa by late morning to early afternoon. Rain showers or denser overcast most of Central most of the day with a SSW-SW wind. Some pockets of heavier rain are possible but they should be brief if at all due to fairly fast motion of rain producing clouds.

WEDNESDAY: Front will have cleared Florida as high pressure builds east ward across the northern Gulf. This puts Florida in northerly flow. There is a chance of High Clouds also on Wednesday Central and South, with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, but considerably drier in the lower levels. Temperatures make a more notable fall Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: Much cooler with inland lows through the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30F far northern Lake County and north with upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs along the east coast from the Cape and South. Cooler Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs with clearing skies and North winds through Friday when it will be a bit warmer in the afternoon but remain cool to cold overnight, mainly inland and toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY: The high pressure will be sprawled out and flattened across Florida and slowly drop south in response to another front passing north of Florida. This front will eventually cross Florida early next week as a back door front relatively unnoticed. Highs in the mid 70Fs, sunny, and very light wind, working into Sunday and Monday. Mornings remain very cool but with a west wind as the high pressure sinks south afternoon highs will be well into the 70Fs even at the beaches.

BEYOND: High pressure will build in again from the NNW behind the aforementioned 'backdoor front' and possibly turn the wind onshore (from the NNE-NE going into the middle of next week; therefore a bit cooler especially near the coast. Remaining dry for quite some time to come, at least another week to 10 days with temperatures around normal averaged across that time frame.

CAPE CANAVERAL SUNRISE LAST WEEK. All of 'that' above was well underwater after the latest recent exceptional High Tides the past two to three days.

Remaining Just A Bit Cool through Friday with Decreasing Wind

Radar from around 7AM this morning just after a shower had moved over the Canaveral area and then offshore shows the cold front position at that time, and where the coldest air behind the boundary was located (purple line and north)

TODAY: Front went through close to sunrise as anticipated and now is located near the Broward/Dade County line, as noted by an 80F degree reading at Kendall. Brisk WNW-NW wind behind the boundary could increase a bit more through mid-late afternoon as heating combines with the attempted cold air intrusion results in mixing with heating of the day combined with 35kt winds at 2000 ft. Would expect these winds to subside after dark, but it is hard to say if the atmosphere will completely 'de-couple' during the overnight hours. Either way, lows in the lower 40Fs well inland and much closer to 50F right along the A1A strip give or take 2 or 3 degrees.

THURSDAY: Continued clear and dry with similar temperatures to today but with wind less than 1/2 that of today (from the north-NNW)) it will at least feel much warmer and quite pleasant. It will be very nice in wind protected areas out of the shade. Gradually more warm going into Friday with a cool over night, but warming along the IMMEDIATE beach from the Cape south possibly before sunrise Friday.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY: No change to previous line of thinking. Wind gradually works more easterly to southeasterly overnight Sunday into Monday with some patches of stratocumulus clouds. Given the timing so far, the east coast from near the Cape and South could see little drop in temperatures beyond around 9pm each of these evenings with maybe even a few degrees of increase in temperature, especially after 3AM early Sunday morning and Monday morning.

SATURDAY NIGHT NOTE: Day light Savings Time Begins . Set clocks AHEAD One Hour before bed-time. It is also a good time to check for new batteries for your weather radio as we enter a more potentially active Severe Weather Season (and a jump start at Tropical Storm Season), as well as any fire-alarm batteries that might need to be replaced.

SUNDAY MORNING/NIGHT: Sunset will be closer to 7:30pm, but then again, sunrise will be closer to 7:40AM so it will much darker for some of the  kids  heading off to school Monday morning.  

If you are looking for an excuse to whoops: 'be late for church and miss it altogether', now is your chance to use the "I forgot to change my clock or the alarm setting excuse", because it'll only fly every couple of years (if need be).  

BEYOND: No much chance of rain is in sight for quite some time which is unfortunate from a tinder dry fire season perspective. Temperatures slowly moderating with a possible warm day on Tuesday for the South 1/2 of the state, but that is again short lived, being followed by another cool but not drastically 'cold' spell of a front. 

Lows in the 50Fs and 60Fs and highs in the near 70F (east coast beaches) to mid-upper 70Fs well inland 9 (except a bit cooler next Wednesday). Bearing in mind, ocean temperatures per latest Trident Pier and Port Canaveral Entrance buoys are running around 66F for Brevard County (colder north); thus, afternoon sea breeze along and east of A1A  will result in daytime high temperatures  running much like that of yesterday (near 70-72F), but much warmer well away from the beach. This is not much captured by TV News Stations, so heads up for it being surprisingly cool if planning on frolicking in the surf, or panning for gold. 

Stellar Day In Store, Then Cool through Friday

Current Cold Front Position (Blue) and high pressure area moving east of the state today . The cold front will be located ("yellow") in general around sunrise Wednesday morning 

TODAY: Warmer today with a SW wind ahead of the next cold front. Already?! Highs in the low-mid 70Fs and mainly clear skies.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Front to progress east and south into Central Florida well after midnight and be located across Central toward sunrise, progressing southward to Miami by noon. Some clouds and possibly some sprinkles mainly before sunrise, followed by falling temperatures and an increasing WNW wind behind the front. Temperatures might rise into the lowers 60Fs south of I-4 as winds increase in the 15-22mph range early - mid afternoon after the early morning fall in temperatures. Once again, very dry conditions will prevail.

THURSDAY: Another very cool start to the day similar to this morning if not cooler, but with a WNW-NW wind it will feel much cooler to cold. Highs again in the lower to mid 60Fs (warmer far South Florida and cooler north).

FRIDAY: Slow warming trend as winds slowly shift N-NNE as wind slowly decreases.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Very pleasant with warmest sunrise temperatures along and east of A1A from Canaveral and South through the Keys. Warmest afternoons inland though as the afternoon sea-breeze will cause the beaches to feel rather cool, especially after these recent cold spells likely having cooled the ocean temperatures (and thus the sea breeze) all the more. Inland temperatures in the lower 70Fs but the beaches immediate might have a tough go at even 70F north of Ft. Pierce.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: It will take a full week for the next front to approach, and expect Monday and Tuesday will both be much warmer with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs with a few lower 80Fs South. From here on out the guidance gets indecisive about the frontal passage sometimes around late next Tuesday. All in all, it has shown that even behind that front temperatures will not be all that bad, with a rather quick warm up shortly thereafter. If so, that means it could be quite some time we see cold weather again after this Thursday (no including the morning lows inland and west side of the state going into the weekend.)

Shortly After Sunrise This Morning

Other than Tuesday, Cool but not "As" Cold

Forecast plot for 6PM Tonight  shows a High Pressure Smiley Center near Central Florida. To the north is, in very general terms, what we can expect to hear about: "Snows through Wednesday toward the Washington DC area, especially in West Virginia and Northern Kentucky and the Northern Plains" 

TODAY: This post is mainly a 'for continuity sake' post, as the previous post was last Monday. As noted previously, the highs on Sunday might not even crack 60F, and such as it was for the most part. Today's post is to continue  the cool streak as high pressure which was sliding along the northern Gulf Coast the past two days or so will sink into Central and be centered almost right over Cape Canaveral to Melbourne by late evening and remain such until nearly sunrise. Other than light to near calm winds near dark, clear skies,  dry air, and very cool temperatures with a high in the lower 60Fs (South) right near 60F (beaches Central and North), and low 60Fs and maybe a mid 60F briefly interior most of the state, not much else to say.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: Frontal boundary now showing up (above) across Texas will move quickly east along the jet stream flow and enter Central Direct around 7AM Wednesday morning. Before then, another cool evening in store with some mid-upper 30Fs possibly interior area and potentially some frost with a quick warm up by mid-morning toward noon time with highs in the low-mid 70Fs (especially the south 1/2 of the state) with a SW wind of 12-18mph in the afternoon...but continued dry and mainly sunny. Tuesday will be the most 'choice' day for a while now, until maybe Sunday.

WEDNESDAY: Front goes through Central and proceeds further south at or just before sunrise with a band of clouds and perhaps a few rain drops on the wind shield while temperatures are in the mid-50Fs to lower 60Fs, but really expect mostly cloud cover as the atmosphere is so dry now that any rain to fall might evaporate before reaching the ground. Most if any rain will occur prior to sunrise, with quick clearing over Central by noon time..with NNW winds following and cool, with a high not to far off from today, perhaps a degree or two warmer.

THURSDAY: Another cool morning, likely much like tomorrow morning will be, and cool in the afternoon with highs in the 60Fs.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: High pressure moves off the US East Coast north of Florida and a gradual east flow develops with air mass modification ensuing. Expect this to become first evident in the early wee hours from the Cape and South when over night lows drop little relative to those inland and toward the west coast, with as much as a 15F degree difference, for example, for Cocoa Beach verses West side of Orlando. The warmest 'mourning' and overnight will be right along A1A and east of A1A Friday through Sunday mornings, with lows elsewhere going into the 40Fs but much closer to 60F right on the beach. The warmest day foreseen after Tuesday is Sunday and beyond . Given how far off that is, it should be no surprise that the GFS cannot figure out if around the 17-19th we will see another cool spell.

Storms Remotely Possibly Later/ Temps Go Down Hill Later in Week

Radar around 2:30AM This Monday morning. Most of this action is related to an 'elevated warm front above 5000 feet. Some severe reports have come in from this activity in the form of a few hail reports. Radar now looks not nearly as active in this same area..nonetheless, activity seems to have shifted east more toward JAX '

 TODAY: Really not much change from yesterday's post. To sum it up, it appears a shallow warm front at the surface significantly 'tilt's toward the north with the main axis of action along the 3000-5000 ft level near I-10 as can bee seen above and depicted below

See note above: Could be light showers almost anywhere, but cloud coverage has really put a damper across Central and North Central. REGARDLESS: Wind fields are favorable for  severe weather across the entire south half of the state ALTHOUGH, there is a tornado watch much further north across North Florida. Moisture fields though are pitiful across South Florida to Support storms (so far today)

THIS AFTERNOON: The best instability and wind fields are south of the surface front. There might be a trigger moving in from the west over the gulf which so far, if the model is correct, is showing no action associated with it which makes the model suspect. Regardless, rare as it would be this time of year, with the boundary in place and good heating for this time of year, a shower or even storm could go up under what above is is strong Speed Shear accompanied by some directional wind shear as well despite the presence of high clouds, and rare part being a sea breeze convergence type initiation which is rare for March. The best chance for a strong storm would be after 2:30pm until around 7pm as it looks now though there is no statements out regarding any such chance at the present time, officially.

TUESDAY: As noted in the previous post, a cold front will usher through Central Florida in the late afternoon Tuesday, and so far it looks to go through with little fanfare although thunderstorms I do see are in the forecast (to be forewarned despite what this blog post reads).

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Gradual temperature drops each day with the biggest drops being Friday and then again Sunday. So far, as it looks now, temperatures on Sunday could be about 22-28 degrees cooler than what we saw this morning and are seeing this afternoon, with Sunday readings perhaps not barely cracking 60F north of 528 Causeway (as opposed to the current 85F degrees) which fell due to cloud cover here locally.   The good thing is we will 'slide into lower temperatures' rather than do one lump sum plummet like a crashing stock market over night. 

BEYOND: Continued cool to perhaps cold well into next week until at least the 8th- 10th of March,  Other than in the next two days, little chance of rain is foreseen. There is a chance that some areas along the West Coast going into the weekend will be colder during the day if a more westerly wind component sets up and they experience afternoon stratocumulus cloud decks blocking out the afternoon sun off the Gulf of Mexico. IN summary, if you like it warm, enjoy today through Wednesday. 

Spider Wheel Monster Low in the Making

COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ON THE WAY TOWARD CENTRAL LAKE OKEECHOBEE VICINITY BY MIDNIGHT

 TODAY: Remainder of Sunday. Satellite image pretty much tells the story. Some thunder is occurring with isolated small but isolatedly potent storms across the Panhandle region BEHIND the front just to emphasize the bizarre nature of this boundary. The front could sink as far south as shown in the yellow lines. Clouds, low clouds, and isolated showers could occur any time or place over night in random fashion, but again, very isolated. The boundary will lift back north as a warm front into mid-morning Monday but remain across Central Florida all day Monday, while a secondary warm front forms much further North as shown below

MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ROUGHLY LIKE THIS ABOVE. Warmest along and SOuth of the Red Warm Front Shown with showers and storms most likely far North Central interior toward the Panhandle, although some showers and maybe a storm could from after 3-4pm East Central along a side shore component wind from near Brevard to  Interior Volusia County, Lake County , and toward Ocala although that too is a bit sketcy

MONDAY: As noted above, a pseudo-warm front will remain across Central Florida until mid-evening Monday night then lift well north toward where the orange boundary above will already have been established. A cold front will have crossed the Texas SE Coast but be increasingly preceded by a developing pre-frontal boundary. As can be seen by now, this system is not simple; it will be affecting most everyone east of the Mississippi River from Florida to Southern Canada most all of this upcoming week in various ways from snow, cold, wind, and rains, mainly North of the Mason-Dixon Line. I expect we'll be hearing all about it all next week in weather related news casts.

TUESDAY: A warmer day ahead of the approaching cold front once again with a slight chance of thunder. Will need to watch for some potentially  stronger storms from SR 520 (roughly and north) Tuesday after 2PM toward sunset, but at this point it appears we'll be experience mostly cloud cover and some showers south of I-4.

IMAGE FOR 1PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Most action for storms could end up along the pre-frontal trough shown by the black dashed line. This boundary will be drawn more north than east though, so it might only affect the west side of the sate toward the west side of Orlando and north of I-4;  too soon to say for sure at this point

 

TUESDAY: "Monster Spider Wheel" of ejecting troughs and disturbances rotates its way east and north.  For Example, By Friday this (above) is what this system looks like at 10,000 feet or 700mb. White arrows are a rough 'stream line analysis' of the general flow into Florida.

THE REST OF THIS COMING WEEK: Roughly there will be three fronts to go through this upcoming week all because of the system shown above. The first goes through Tuesday night. The Temperature drop behind that boundary will not be bad at all with highs still in the 70Fs.

The next boundary goes through Friday Morning so expect a big noticeable change in the weather on Friday as lows go into the 40Fs with highs in the 60Fs  if not some 50Fs to the north range somewhere. It will be breezy behind this boundary, wind chills becoming a factor. Winds WNW-NW most all of the time from Wednesday and beyond for a solid week, but not always windy.

The next boundary goes through around Sunday Morning . This is the one that will be bring the first shot of much colder air in. It might very well be followed by another around Tuesday morning as well re-enforcing what is already in place. More wind chill factor relatedness could end up being conveyed on TV.

 WHEN DO WE WARM UP NOTICEABLY?: Possibly around the 8th of March.

Will The "Real Winter" Please Stand Up?!

LATEST GFS surface 'depicture' for Sunday Afternoon,
showing a front's location and best rain chances

TODAY and SATURDAY: Warm with above average temperatures on tap. Wind today becoming more southerly with temperatures into the low-mid 80Fs for much of the peninsula with coolest readings near Central Brevard and North up the east coast along and east of I-95 due to a slight wind component off the ocean, where ocean temperatures are coolest as well due to the further proximity of the Gulf Stream to the coast as opposed to from Ft Pierce and south. Saturday's wind will be more Southwesterly so that should not be an issue. There appears to be a chance of showers from near Ft. Pierce and south on the GFS model for several runs in a row now on Saturday, whereas word has it the better chance is further north on the ECMWF model which I'll discount for now.

SUNDAY: The first front enters Central Florida on Sunday afternoon with a good chance of rain and possible thunder along and north of I-4 potentially nosing into Central Brevard after 2PM in the afternoon. Possibly thunder on this day as well, whereas South Central and South Florida remain apparently dry at this point. Warmest south of I-4 with again highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and warmer South Florida.

MONDAY: Although it could rain into the over-night hours Sunday night (especially along and north of I-4), the boundary will 'buckley buckle back north" rapidly to Central or North Georgia 'as a warm front' in response to another low pressure system.

The red warm front shown will have been over Central Florida  late day Sunday into the overnight, but will lift back north rapidly as shown in this GFS model depiction. A complex mid to upper level pattern at this point is taking shape over the Great Lakes region to eventually continue to affect them as well as the NE States in days to come

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Warm and potentially dry with SW winds ahead of that next front shown above approaching from the west.  Although not shown here, a large and stubborn upper level low pressure system is to develop near the NE Great Lakes and stay firmly planted. The cold front 'should' cross through over-night Monday night and be through Central Florida by sunrise, Tuesday with another rain chance.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Cooler but not cold, yet. Guidance flips around in the Wednesday time frame indicating a secondary surge of moisture rapidly moving in from the Central Gulf of Mexico as an 'over running' feature with a shallow north wind at the ground in place over Florida resulting a re-introduction to rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the other hand, the most recent GFS says that is a no go. So we'll need some continuity on that potential. Otherwise, it makes little difference beyond Wednesday as a series of 'dry fronts' rotate around like spokes on a large- low pressure-wheel located up in the NE Quadrant of the U.S.  The net result is a series of dry fronts surfing through as the drop south around the axis of rotating, whilst the first much cooler to cold one on Friday is to arrive, with several more shown to 'ditto that' for another week beyond.

ANY QUESTIONS? The gist is for another 7-10 days of winter.
At least so far as the Story is Being Told. 

 NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH NEXTEST NEXT FRIDAY: Temperatures below to well below normal. This is in contrast to earlier model runs that kept popping up the chance of severe weather in lieu of a cold air (or multiple one) intrusions. The question is, will that really be the case for as along as depicted, that being through the first week of March? Heads up at this point.

"HEY, I'M FREEZIN'!"